Monday, January 28, 2013

Ranking Final Roster Spot Contenders (First Try)

(Would Eduardo Scissorhands make my roster cut?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

I commented last week on Cash's statements regarding the current Yankee roster construction, and the declaration that the team would be willing to go to Tampa with "what they've got" right now.  By my count, there are still 4 roster spots unaccounted for, almost all of them on the bench, and the group of candidates to fill those spots is uninspiring to say the least.  But it's looking more and more likely that this group, and maybe an additional cheap MiL signee or 2, are going to be the players battling it out for the final 4 spots, and that being the case we might as well start separating the real contenders from the pretenders.  Spring Training is still a few weeks away, so I'm going on nothing more than past performance and perceived team needs, but here are my early rankings for who I think should get the final 4 roster spots.

Yankees' Plan This Offseason Could Be Setting Them Up For Future Failure

(Courtesy of the AP)

One of the posts I read over the weekend that really stuck with me was Greg Corcoran's open letter to Brian Cashman over at Bronx Baseball Daily letting Cash know what he thinks of the Yankees' offseason plan.  The general theme of Greg's post was that while he can get on board with what the team has done this offseason to transition to the sub-$189 mil payroll in 2014, he didn't see their no-spending approach as a real plan for success after the payroll ceiling had been reached.  Specifically, he cited the Yankees' failure to sign or trade for useful players on multi-year deals and their perceived assumption that multiple prospects are going to come up and contribute as flaws in their logic, and that got me thinking.

As it is, the Yankees have seen their monetary advantage shrink over the past few seasons as teams started signing their own players to new deals before they hit free agency.  Now, with that spending already capped and more teams working to extend their big names, any plan to reload after reaching 189 could prove useless if there are no big free agent targets left.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

To Pitch Or Not To Pitch?

(Definitely don't want a repeat of this.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

First Andy Pettitte was going to participate in the World Baseball Classic this year.  Then the rosters were announced and he wasn't because the Yankees had concerns about him injuring himself.  Now it sounds like the window of opportunity might be open for him again per the latest report from Wally Matthews, who can actually be of value as a writer when he sticks to his reporting guns.  According to the report, Joe Torre confirmed that the Yankees would still prefer to have Pettitte skip the WBC but that both sides have until February 20th to make an official decision.

Personally, I think it would be cool to see Pettitte pitch in the WBC.  It's obvious he wants to, he's probably already in good pitching shape from his offseason workouts knowing that he was planning to play this season from the beginning, and I think we can all be sure this season is going to be his real, actual final one, so why not get that experience in while he still has the chance?

At the same time, I can see where the Yankees are coming from and when I put my homer fan glasses back on to look at the situation, I start to side with them.  Pettitte hasn't been a pillar of good health in his later years, and even though last year's injury was on a fluke play, those same fluke risks and regular injury risks are always there.  Pettitte is an important part of the Yankee rotation, and if he's going to get hurt and miss games in 2013, I'd rather it be because of something that happened in a Yankee uniform after the season started.  Even a minor injury in the WBC could be something that lingers and negatively affects his performance over the course of the entire Major League season, and that wouldn't be a good thing.

So we'll see where this goes.  My money is on the Yankees holding firm and us seeing Andy pitching in ST games in March rather than WBC games.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Gary Sanchez Named #3 Catching Prospect By MLB.com

(Courtesy of Matt Burton/MiLB.com)

On Wednesday afternoon, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com released his "Prospect Watch" top 10 catching prospects rankings.  Top Yankee prospect Gary Sanchez was 3rd in those rankings, behind Travis d'Arnaud of the Mets and Mike Zunino of the Mariners.  Seeing as those 2 guys are easily the 2 best catching prospects in baseball, that's a pretty big accomplishment for the 20-year-old Sanchez.

Mayo's explanation of his putting Sanchez 3rd included high praise for Sanchez's defensive skills, saying he had the potential to be "an exciting two-way player for the Yankees."  This is higher praise than usual for Sanchez's defense, and that's coming from someone who was pretty complimentary of the improvements Sanchez made in last week's AB4AR Top 30.  Sanchez does have the plus arm, but right now doesn't project to be anything better than average at best behind the plate.  Still, with Sanchez's advanced offensive skills and high ceiling, it makes sense that Mayo would rank him 3rd if he believes Sanchez could be that good defensively.

Sanchez is still years away from the show, but his positional rankings project him in a positive light for the future. Last year MLB.com had Sanchez 4th overall, just ahead of Wilin Rosario of Colorado, who posted a .356 wOBA and hit 28 HR in 117 games for the Rockies in 2012.  Rosario also rated as a very poor defensive catcher according to FanGraphs.  Sanchez has a similar offensive makeup to Rosario, and still has time to improve his defensive skills.  If he can be even slightly better than Rosario defensively and improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline skills, Sanchez could be a very valuable Major League catcher.

People Know What "Chance" Means, Right?



I mean, I thought everybody knew the definition of the word, but I guess not after the immediate reaction and subsequent over-dramatization and over-coverage of this harmless quote that Cash dropped yesterday when asked about the possibility of A-Rod missing the entire 2013 season:

“I think because (of) the serious nature of the surgery and the condition that he’s trying to recover from, you know, there is that chance.”

Chance  noun  /'chan(t)s - the possibility of a particular outcome in an uncertain situation.

Everybody ready for a quick lesson?

Friday, January 25, 2013

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/25/13

It was snowing this morning.  Not a lot, just enough to coat the cars and get a little bit on the roads; an inch to an inch and a half at the most.  That's pretty common in Wisconsin, nothing people around here haven't seen before, which is why it was so bizarre to see a car spun out on my way into work and then to hear stories from other people about accidents they saw on the highway.  It's an inch and a half of snow, maybe 2 at the most.  How the fuck do you crash your car in that??  We're not talking "The Day After Tomorrow" here, folks.

I've been driving in the snow since I first learned how to drive, and I've had to do it in good snow vehicles and bad snow vehicles.  There's really not much to it.  You go a little slower than you normally would, you watch the road to spot problem areas, you keep your windshield wipers going, and you don't slam on the brakes.  Anybody who can't do that and ends up crashing his or her car in less than 3 inches of snow should have their licenses taken away.  Now onto the links!

- On Tuesday, Abe Froman-Sausage King of NoMaas looked back at the track record of low-dollar/advanced-age Yankee signings as they seem primed to add a few more of those guys soon.

- Daniel Burch of The Greedy Pinstripes scored an interview with Dante Bichette, Jr., likely starting third baseman for Low-A Charleston this year.

- Chris Mitchell of Pinstripe Pundits hasn't given up on Ivan Nova, and provided some statistical support to explain why nobody should be giving up on Nova.

- On Wednesday, Mike Axisa of RAB identified possible trade deadline targets to address the Yankees' needs since they don't appear to be interested in addressing them prior to Spring Training.

- Mike Eder of TYA started searching for trade options to upgrade at catcher, since picking up George Kottaras and his non-guaranteed deal apparently wasn't a good option.

- Steve Skinner of Bleeding Yankee Blue ranked the AL East shortstops heading into 2013.  I'd be hesitant to put Jeter at the top until I see how he looks coming off surgery, but at his best he's still probably the pick of the litter.

- Jimmytoucan of Yankees Fans Unite commented on the early roster projections for the Trenton Thunder.

- On Thursday, Chad Jennings of LoHud examined the best and worst case scenarios for Robinson Cano and the Yankees in relation to his upcoming free agency.

- Brien Jackson of IIATMS continued to bang the logic drum in response to the reactions around the blogosphere to the latest luxury tax news.

- El duque of It Is High... reacted to the ridiculous "Youkilis not returning Joba's calls" non-story as only he can.

- Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible mused on the transition towards building a bigger, better bullpen at the expense of the bench and how the Yankees will be affected by that this season.

- On Friday, Fernando Alejandro of Respect Jeter's Gangster looked ahead to the number of guys who are free agents in 2014 as a way to put the underwhelming 2013 offseason in context.

- Bryan Hoch of Bombers Beat had some good quotes from Brian Cashman on the current state of the Yankees and the upcoming season.

This week's Friday Jam is "Jambi" by Tool.  Tool is probably the most popular band to not put out new music regularly.  There are huge gaps between albums and it always seems like they grow in popularity from one to the next.  There have been rumors of a new album out for a while now, but rumors of a new Tool album are like rumors connecting the Yankees to big names during the offseason.  Until it actually happens, you can't put too much faith in them.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

Plans For D-Rob After His Arbitration Years

 (He should probably get his own private bathroom too... )

After the quick burst of 1-year agreements with their arbitration-eligible players last week, the Yankees now have all but 1 of their key core roster members under contract for 2013.  The lone remaining unsigned guy is David Robertson, and both he and the Yankees submitted their arbitration numbers for a possible hearing next month.  D-Rob is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and one way or another he stands to get a big raise from the $1.6 mil he made in 2012.  Robertson submitted $3.55 million as his desired figure while the Yankees submitted $2.85 mil, which is right in line with MLBTR's prediction of $2.8 mil.  They can still work out a new deal before taking it to arbitration, but what about after his arbitration years are up?  What then?  The Yankees will have some serious decisions to make on the future of their bullpen after this season, and D-Rob figures to play prominently in those decisions.

** UPDATE 11:37 AM- Jon Heyman reporting that the Yanks and D-Rob have agreed to a 1-year/$3.1 million deal for 2013.  That locks him in for this season, but everything after the jump is still relevant. **

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Dan Johnson, Come On Down...

You're the next contestant on "2013 New York Yankees Quad-A Bench Competition!!"



Sweeny Murti had the story via Twitter, and the Yankees now have another candidate for a spot on this year's bench.  Johnson is a 33-year-old lefty swinger who can play first base but for the Yankees' purposes would be best-suited as a lefty platoon DH.  He's bounced back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A since 2005, and has a career .237/.338/.412 Major League slash line (.329 wOBA) in over 1,500 PA, but has seen his overall production decline from '05 to present day.

Johnson brings good power to the table, and has very strong BB and K rates, but his defensive limitations and recent down trending production makes him a less-than-desirable option as a platoon/bench player.  At best, he captures some magic and gets some big hits as part of the early-season bench corps.  At worst, he's organizational depth who can continue to do what he's always done and mash at Triple-A.  Nothing to get excited about, but then again it's not like the Yankees are trying to be exciting right now.

Checking In With Wally Matthews

If this offseason were "Inception," we'd all be in limbo right now.  Just an endless string of nothingness.  The biggest news in Yankeeland yesterday was that Scott Hairston signed with the Chicago Cubs for 2 years.  Second biggest story- the Yanks are apparently not interested in free agent catcher George Kottaras even though he makes a a lot of sense for them.  That's how boring it is right now.  The biggest Yankee-related story didn't even involve the Yankees, and both of the biggest stories revolved around them doing nothing.  Hachi machi, that's bad.

But fear not, Yankee fans.  Because Wally Matthews is kicking off his countdown to Spring Training, and he's doing it as only Wally Matthews can.  By trolling the crap out of Alex Rodriguez.  I wish I was kidding.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Offseason Space-Filler Post: Top 5 Closer Entrance Songs

The final stage of this offseason is progressing at a painfully slow rate, and real, valuable news and talking points are at a minimum, so why not go back to the off-topic fun well with another song list?  It beats breaking down Thomas Neal's Double-A contact splits, right?  As everybody is now aware from my previous "Top 5 Songs" post for at-bat music, part of my mind lives in a perpetual state of 15-year-old-ness, and I've put just as much thought into my personal top 5 closer entrance songs as I did for the at-bat songs.

In my hypothetical fantasy world, the world in which I'm not only a professional baseball player but a pitcher and a good pitcher, I'd be an awesome closer.  I'd rock mid-90s heat with some movement and a killer slider, I'd be more than willing to throw inside and buzz hitters' towers, and I definitely wouldn't be anything close to the polished professional that Mo is.  Think like a more subdued Brian Wilson, with a less bushy beard and not trying so hard to be "weird," combined with the brutal media honesty of Chris Perez, and that'd be me.  With that in mind, here are my personal top 5 songs I'd consider for my entrance music.

Thinkin' 'Bout Youkilis' Swing

 (Yeesh, guy.  Courtesy of Matthew O'Haren/Icon SMI)

There's been a lot of chatter around the Yankosphere in the last week or so regarding the work that the Kevins, Youkilis and Long, are putting in trying to tinker with Youkilis' batting stance and swing, chatter that I've managed to steer clear of up until now.  It's not that I don't think the chatter is worthwhile; I'm just more of a "see it and analyze it" kind of guy when it comes to swing mechanics, and with just mental pictures of the changes right now I didn't feel qualified to offer my 2 cents on how optimistic I am that the changes will return positive dividends.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

2012 Statistical Trends: Derek Jeter's Bounce Back

 (Oh so smoove.  Courtesy of the AP)

It was a continuation of his strong second half in 2011, but that didn't make Derek Jeter's offensive performance in 2012 any less impressive.  To be 2 years older than he was when he first started to look like he was slipping, the oldest everyday shortstop in MLB by far, and lead the American League in wOBA at his position (.347) while playing 159 games was just the latest entry in the long book of career accomplishments for Jeter.  His race to 3,000 hits in the rearview, Jeter rapidly ascended the all-time list last year and enters 2013 knocking on the door of the top 10, with it looking very likely that he'll finish the year just outside the top 5 if he stays healthy.  Health will play the biggest role in determining whether Jeter keeps the positive momentum from his 2012 season going, but before we look ahead to that, let's look back at 2012 and what changed to breathe life back into Jeter's bat.

Yanks Sign Another MiL OF; I'm Getting Bored Writing About Them

Boy the Yanks are really picking the bones of the Cleveland 40-man clean, huh?  Every casualty that gets cut to make room for a new signing pretty much has a Yankee MiL contract waiting for him when he finishes cleaning out his locker.  Maybe somebody should tell the front office that these moves don't make up for not offering Swish a contract.

The latest Quad-A warm body is Thomas Neal, a 25-year outfielder with a 7-year MiL career in 2 systems and 9 games of 2012 Major League service under his belt.  He had some pretty good years in the lower levels of the San Fran system, and even posted a .343 wOBA for their Triple-A affiliate in 2011.  But he got dropped back down to Double-A in Cleveland's system last year, so take that however you want to judge the guy's ceiling.  For what it's worth, he's got decent MiL numbers, good power, some speed, tolerable K and BB rates, and can play multiple positions.  Blah, blah, blah.

Diaz.  Canzler.  Neal.  Somehow I don't think these guys are going to be battling for a spot on Pinstriped Bible's Top 100 Yankees list.

Monday, January 21, 2013

Would The Yankees Really Go To Tampa With What They've Got Right Now?

 ("Canzler, Nix, Diaz, Nunez, pop the champagne.  Amiright, guys???" Courtesy of Getty Images)

I didn't write about it last week when the comments were made because it didn't tie in to the Prospect Week theme, but Cash made some head-scratching statements to our buddy Wally Matthews about the Yankees' current roster makeup and the stance they're taking as the offseason winds down and moves into the preseason.

“I know it’s getting late, but we’re still looking."

“We’re open for business, but we’re not going to do something just to do something. If we have to, we’ll go to Tampa with what we’ve got."

It's just 2 short sentences, but there's a lot to take from those statements.  "Getting late," "still looking, " open for business," and "If we have to... " all lend some possible insight as to exactly what the situation is at the top levels of the Yankee decision-making hierarchy and how Cash feels about it.  By now, I'm assuming he's as fed up with the penny pinching as most of the fanbase is and is just trying to get through the offseason by creating as few a number of waves as possible.  But as the guy whose job it is to construct the best team possible, can Cash really be serious about going to Tampa with what he's got?

Could The WBC Help Teix's 2013 Start?

(Sad Teix is sad.  Courtesy of David Pokress/Newsday)

The Yankee participation in the 2013 World Baseball Classic was made official last week with the unveiling of the rosters.  Francisco Cervelli, Robinson Cano, and Mark Teixeira will represent their respective countries while Andy Pettitte, who had been rumored to be participating, was left off the Team USA roster for obvious injury concern reasons.

While I have no qualms with the 40-year-old Pettitte participating in a regular Spring Training program, I wonder what effect, if any, playing in the WBC will have on Teix.  His slow April starts have become an annual source of frustration in Yankeeland, and to date nothing he's done in ST has helped solve the riddle:

April '09- .200/.367/.371 (.331 wOBA) in 90 PA
April '10- .136/.300/.259 (.271 wOBA) in 100 PA
April '11- .256/.392/.549 (.406 wOBA) in 102 PA
April '12- .244/.290/.395 (.298 wOBA) in 93 PA

2011 is the obvious outlier here, as Teix got off to a hot start and then fall back from there, but the other 3 years were defined by an uncharacteristic lack of power and low batting average.  Will a trip to the WBC this year help?  It's hard to say.  In theory, hitting against a higher level of competition in the Classic seems more beneficial to a veteran like Teix than playing intrasquad games or scrimmaging against college teams, but who really knows?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.  It certainly couldn't hurt to try something new, right?

Yanks Better Be In On Kottaras

 (He can't be worse than Cervelli.  Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankees' involvement in trade talks with Washington had barely got off the ground last week when the Nationals swung a 3-team deal with Seattle and Oakland to trade Michael Morse to the Mariners.  He addressed their desperate need for offense without being a great fit for the system, and once again the Yankees found themselves on the outside looking in as a good right-handed bat passed them by.  But there was something else that came out of that trade that could help New York.  Oakland had to clear a 40-man roster spot to make their part of the trade work, and they did that by DFAing catcher George Kottaras, who they had just re-signed to a 1-year deal to avoid arbitration.  Their current catching situation being shaky at best, Kottaras presents the Yankees with an opportunity to add some depth and some offensive skill to the position.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

The Complete 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30

(Courtesy of Wade Spees/postandcourier.com)

Well it's been fun, but this post will mark the official end of AB4AR Prospect Week for 2013.  Now I have to come up with some ideas for what to write about next week, so for a simple, straightforward, clean ending to this week, here's the entire Top 30 list in order, with links to each of the individual write-ups in case you wanted to go back and pick out all the dumb things I said for later in the season.

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30:

More Jim Callis Commentary On The Yankee MiL System

A little over a week ago, Jim Callis of Baseball America released his personal top 10 list of best MiL systems in baseball, with the Yankees just missing the cut and coming in 11th place.  It was confirmed at that time that Callis' 3 fellow BA rankers also had the Yankees 11th, painting a pretty encouraging picture, to me at least, about the state of the Yankee system after a very uneven 2012.  Recently, Chad Jennings of LoHud caught up with Callis and spoke to him in greater detail about his thoughts on the Yankee system, where he felt their strengths and weaknesses were, and what their next step should be.  Some quotes from Callis and my personal takes on what he had to say after the jump.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Daniel Camarena

(Courtesy of Perfect Game.org)

If you're a left-handed starting pitcher, you're automatically going to get more attention as a young draft pick/prospect than your right-handed counterparts.  It's why I included Vidal Nuno in this year's AB4AR Top 30 over guys like Jose Ramirez and Branden Pinder, and why Matt Tracy was the focus of the first "Not A Prospect Yet" post this week.  Daniel Camarena, despite not making any kind of noise in this year's Top 30, is an even more intriguing potential prospect than Nuno or Tracy because of his status as a young, high school pitcher.  Camarena is fresh off his 20th birthday in November, and even with an extremely small 2012 sample size to evaluate, is the type of pitcher who could quickly make his way onto next year's Top 30.

Thoughts On The Arbitration Avoidance Contracts

The Yankees and D-Rob each submitted their arbitration salary figures yesterday, starting what could be the only arbitration situation New York enters this offseason.  Their other 3 remaining arbitration-eligible players all signed 1-year deals this week, the final ones they'll sign before all 3 become free agents next offseason.  How do all those deals look?  Glad you asked.

Joba Chamberlain- 1 year/$1.875 million.  Good for Joba getting a raise after 2 straight injury-shortened season, and given his tenure and likely status as the pitcher next in line behind D-Rob for the setup role with Soriano gone, I think it's a fair deal.

Boone Logan- 1 year/$3.15 million.  A significant hike from the $1.875 he made in 2012, but understandable given the very good body of work he's had in a Yankee uniform and the importance the LOOGY role has taken on in the past few seasons.  A jump to over $3 mil in his final arb year should set Logan up nicely for life on the open market in 2014, and I think now the Yanks are much more likely to let him walk than try to bring him back on a multi-year deal for that kind of money.

Phil Hughes- 1 year/$7.15 million.  I'm a little surprised this number was so high for Hughes.  He had 1 slightly above-average year as a starter at league minimum in 2010, 1 below-average year at $2.7 mil in 2011, and another slightly above-average year at $3.2 mil in 2012.  I said I thought Hughes was going to be valuable as the only under-30 starting pitcher on the market next offseason, and the Yankees may have just helped usher him out the door with this $7+ mil deal.  If Hughes pitches better than he did in 2012 this season, he's going to be looking at offers of $10 mil per easily.

Friday, January 18, 2013

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/18/13

I can't get enough of this Manti Te'o story.  It's one of the sickest/craziest/most hilarious stories I've encountered in my lifetime and I absolutely cannot stop reading and talking about it.  I mean, what a fucking loser.  I don't care what the reasons are, being a starting middle linebacker for the most widely-recognized football team in the country and then going through with a plan to create and kill off a fake online girlfriend in an age where there was no way you were going to get away with it is absolute lunacy.  It's bizarro world shit of the highest order.  And just so we're clear, if you honestly buy this "victim of a cruel joke" excuse that Te'o and Swarbrick are selling, you are a complete moron.

What really gets me, and what I think isn't being given enough attention here, is that he and his little Twitter buddy waited around until his grandmother died in real life to kill off the fake girlfriend.  Were they sitting around planning the end date for the fake girlfriend like writers for a TV show?  Were they always planning on doing it after the grandma died?  Did Manti Te'o WANT his grandma to die just so he could piggyback the dead girlfriend on top of that?  I'm a pretty cold, tasteless dude, but that's low even by my standards.  Now onto the links!

- Mike Eder of TYA had a pair of great posts on individual hitters' swing mechanic problems.  On Monday, he covered A-Rod and his bad hip, and on Tuesday he looked at Kevin Youkilis and his hands.

- On Tuesday, Josh Norris of Minor Matters posted some early details on the Yankees' 2013 MiL Spring Training schedule.

- Greg Cohen of Sliding Into Home got back into the blogging groove by stating that he did not like the idea of Andy Pettitte pitching in the WBC this year.  Based on Andy's recent health track record, I'm inclined to agree and am glad he's off the roster.

- Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes put an interesting spin on the "slow offseason" complaint that many have had by looking at the Yankees' activity compared to other teams.

- Alex Pugliese of Yanks Go Yard asked who from the A-Rod-Youkilis pairing made the most sense as the everyday third baseman this season.

- On Wednesday, Mike Axisa of RAB looked at early projections for Derek Jeter based on his ankle injury for 2013 and beyond.

- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog broke down the dollars on Rafael Soriano to determine who was a winner and loser in him opting out of his Yankee contract and signing with Washington.

- On Thursday, Chad Jennings of LoHud discussed Eduardo Nunez's middle-of-nowhere situation and brought up an interesting high-ceiling career comparison.

- El duque of It Is High... is getting tired of waiting for Cash to make his customary January move, and tired of waiting for the kids in A-ball.

- Brien Jackson of IIATMS pointed out the lack of compatability in Hal's "getting under the luxury tax but not being open to extensions" payroll policies.

- On Friday, Steph Bee of Pinstriped Bible mused on the idea of trading Curtis Granderson.  It's an idea that almost everybody out there has had come across their mind at some point.

This week's Friday Jam comes from Nine Inch Nails.  Trent Reznor is pretty damn boss these days, winning Academy Awards, recording with QOTSA for their new album, and reportedly considering bringing NIN out of retirement.  I saw Linkin Park cover this at a concert one time and a bunch of younger mid-teens kids in the crowd had no clue what the song was.  That was sad.  Those kids should have been slapped.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.  Say hi to your fake internet girlfriends for me.

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

 (Courtesy of Tim Priddy/Four Seam Images)

It's all been building to this.  The past 54 calendar weeks since the first AB4AR Top 30.  Suffice it to say this is arguably going to be the greatest moment of this year, and 2013 is only 17 days old.  The last group of players, the top 10, of the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 is released today.

From the new kids on the block with upside to the guys transition through the levels to this crop, each group of 10 has had some defining characteristics and the top 10 here is no different.  This group of players consists of upper-level guys right on the doorstep of making the Major League roster, some of them with the chance to be long-term fixtures at their positions, and also the elite group of lower-level guys who are fixing to be future All Stars at their positions.  If they aren't traded, the next core group of homegrown players could be sitting right within this top 10, and many of them play positions at which the Yankees are going to have a need in the next couple of years.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Adonis Garcia

 (Courtesy of Mike Ashmore)

There was a period of time 10-15 years ago when the Yankees dominated the international free agent game.  They brought in El Duque, they brought in Hideki, they brought in Contreras.  That last move didn't really work out, but it was still the Yankees using their financial muscle to bring in high-ceiling international talent.  Right around the time that Bahhston signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Yankees started to drift back to the pack on the international market, and recently they've been in the news more for losing out on or not even getting involved in the biding for players like Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jorge Soler.

They did make one move last year that could produce some upside, though.  In early May the Yankees signed Adonis Garcia, a then 26-year-old bat-first Cuban outfielder, to a 1-year MiL deal worth $400,000.  The move didn't sound like much at the time, and it still might not be, but Garcia hit the ground running upon making his US debut and has already shown he's no slouch with the bat.  His ceiling is low, but there might be something there worth watching.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 20-11

 (Courtesy of Beverly Schaefer/The Times of Trenton)

As we move forward from the first third of this year's rankings, the faces start to become a little more familiar.  9 of the 10 players included in the middle section of this year's Top 30 were on last year's list.  They also start to become a bit more experienced, with 9 of the 10 having played in a full-season league last year and 7 of the 10 playing in at least 1 game at the Double-A level or higher.  There's slightly less upside in this group than in the group of 10 from yesterday, or at least upside that's a little better known, but there is also more polish and polish is what I'm looking for to know that a player is on the right track.  After the jump, check out positions 20-11 in the 2012-213 AB4AR Top 30.

No Yankees In Keith Law's Top 25 Under 25

Last Friday, Keith Law of ESPN released his 2nd "MLB 25 Under 25 Rankings," listing who he felt were the top 25 players under the age of 25.  Not surprisingly, the Yankees were not represented on this list, as they didn't finish the 2012 season with 1 player on their active roster who was under 25 and likely won't start 2013 with a single player who falls into that category either.  For what it's worth, they only put 1 player (Ivan Nova) on Law's 1st edition of this ranking system in 2011, and that list was 50 players deep.

The famed "Yankee Way" has not been kind to young players in the past decade, treating them almost as spare roster parts to be used to patch up and fill in weak areas caused by injuries to their older veterans rather than key contributors to a winning franchise.  The Yankees prefer to bring in veteran players, specifically ones they feel fit their system, and for the most part that's been a pretty successful strategy in remaining competitive.  But while they've remained competitive, teams like San Francisco have been winning World Series titles on the strength of their under-25 players, and teams like the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers, who both use under-25 players as everyday players, have knocked the Yankees out of the postseason.

The Yankee Way is going to take a hit in the next year with the ownership-imposed payroll cut to get under the luxury tax.  Even mining for the cheapest of 1-year deals, the Yankees are going to have to lean on some of their younger, cheaper internal players, which makes their current lack of those quality under-25 guys all the more glaring.  As important as it is for them to score big with their 3 1st-round draft picks this year, it's equally important for some of their current prospects to have big years and put themselves in position to be everyday or close to everyday contributors in 2014 and beyond.