Yanks' Top Two Draft Picks Make Their Debuts

The Yankees' draft strategy this year was high on probability on low on projection, and those 2 different means of talent evaluation were no better exemplified than by their top 2 selections in the draft, lefty reliever Jacob Lindgren and righty starter Austin DeCarr.  Both players signed quickly and both made their professional debuts yesterday with the Rookie GCL Yankees.  DeCarr threw 1 scoreless inning with 1 hit, 1 walk, and 1 K while Lindgren tosses a scoreless frame of his own with 2 hits and 2 strikeouts.

Lindgren, the high probability pick, was promoted to Low-A Charleston after the game, so he's already on the fast track that could end up at the Major League level before the season is over.  Assuming he performs well in his first few outings there, I expect him to be moved to Tampa before the halfway point of July.  DeCarr, the projection pick, could stay in the GCL for a few more appearances and likely won't end this year in a full-season league.  As young prep pitcher from a cold weather area, he needs the experience and also the slower path to building up his workload.

Good to see both of them get on the field and into games quickly.  Now let's see what kind of promise they show in their first taste of pro ball.

Prospect Stock Watch: June 2014

(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There's still a few days left in June, but everybody's level of success for the month has already been decided.  The midway point of the season has been reached, All Star Games have been played, and a lot of midseason moves have been made, both up and down the ladder.  While the success of the Yankee farm system as a whole continues to be up for debate and interpretation, there's no doubt who the biggest individual stars of this season have been.  Some names will be popping up on this report for the second time this year, the names that have now separated themselves as the head of the 2014 prospect class.  Here are the biggest prospect stock movers for June:

Mid-Week Minor League News And Notes

There were a handful of stories and updates on some well-known Minor League guys yesterday.  Here they are in case you missed any of them:

- The bad news first.  According to Mark Newman, Slade Heathcott is set for another surgery on his knee and will miss the rest of this season.  Considering it was the same knee he had surgery on last year and he only played 9 games after returning from it, I think we can start to turn on the light on Heathcott's prospect status.  Too bad.

- Now the good.  Luis Severino and Peter O'Brien were selected to represent the Yankees in this year's Futures Game.  O'Brien is 3rd in all of baseball in HR this season.  Kudos to both.

- A paper thin Triple-A rotation will get a boost this weekend when Nik Turley returns from the DL.  He's been out since suffering an arm strain in March.

- Via Nick Peruffo, lefty starter Daniel Camarena was promoted from High-A Tampa to Double-A Trenton.  He pitched to a 2.72 ERA in Tampa and is only 21 years old.  I profiled him early last year as someone to watch.

The Best Of Prospect Times, The Worst Of Prospect Times

(Aaron Judge, certified stud.  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

It's Minor League All-Star Game season, which signifies the start to prospect promotion season.  The Yankees have already moved some guys up and down, but once we get through the midpoint of all the MiL seasons, you'll really start to see things pick up.  With that in mind, here are a few updates on some of the top names in the system and the wide disparity in where their seasons are heading at the midpoint.  All things considered, especially some of the more recent negative news, I think you have to say this has been another disappointing campaign for the Yankee system as a whole.  But check out the major "Bests" and "Worsts" after the jump and judge for yourself.

Catching Up With The 2014 AB4AR Top 30

(Do it, Luis.  Do the damn thing.  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

The completion of the draft marks an unofficial checkpoint of sorts for the Minor League season.  With a fresh crop of players ready to join the organizational ranks, start their pro careers, and insert themselves into the prospect conversation, the timing is perfect to look back at the crop of pre-existing prospects and gauge how they've performed over the first few months.

The 2013-2014 edition of the AB4AR Top 30 was released on the final week of January.  A lot has happened to those 30 players since then, some good, like Rob Refsnyder's Double-A breakout, and some bad, like Jose Campos' Tommy John Surgery.  Here's a quick check-in on all 30 prospects to see where they sit and how they're trending towards the second half of this season.

2014 MLB Draft Thoughts And Afterthoughts

(The right-handed Ian Clarkin?  Used courtesy of The Foxboro Reporter)

The Yankees wrapped up their 2014 draft on Saturday by following the formula they had set in the first 2 days.  They were focused primarily on college players and pitchers, with over 80% of their 39 picks making up that first category and over 60% the second.  It was hardly a gambling man's draft by the Yankees, with signability reigning supreme over upside.  That said, I think the Yankees did a pretty good job selecting players in the first 10-20 rounds who have good chances of helping the team in some capacity in the very near and very distant futures.  I feel better about that possibility than I did after the 2012 or 2013 drafts, so in that respect I guess I have to call the Yankees' draft a success at this point in time.  After the jump, some more thoughts on the players, the possibilities, and the plan from here as a final wrap-up of this year's draft.

Prospect Stock Watch: May 2014

(The new second baseman of the future?  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Another month is almost in the books.  That means it's time to check the prospect ticker and see who's been making gains and who's been dropping with their performance this month.  Two months in and I still don't know how I feel about the farm system this year.  There's a lot of guys having better seasons than I expected, but there's also a lot of preseason top guys who aren't living up to expectations at all.  Here are the players who stood out to me for better and worse in May.

Keith Law Scouts Low-A Charleston

Keith Law was back on the scouting road earlier this week and once again he got the chance to check out one of the Yankee farm teams in action.  This time it was the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs and Law filed a scouting report post on some of the players he saw for ESPN yesterday.

The stars of the show were 2013 1st rounder Aaron Judge and fast-rising starting pitching prospect Luis Severino.  Severino dominated in this start (5.2 shutout innings, 8 Ks) and Law called his 3-pitch mix "impressive", praising him for his fastball command and late life and his plus changeup.  He was less enthusiastic about Severino's slider and said he has a lot of work to do on his mechanics, noting that Severino needs "some mechanical adjustments to reach his above-average starter ceiling."

Judge also had himself a day in Law's presence, going 2-2 with a triple and 2 walks.  Law liked what he saw in Judge's stance and swing mechanics, saying "for a guy with long arms and a little bit of a bat wrap he's still quite short to the ball, with good hip rotation and loft in his finish for line-drive power."

Law also had some quick takes on Abi Avelino and Gosuke Katoh.  You can check those out in the whole article here (Insider-only).

Strong Starts For Some Top Pitching Prospects

Luis Severino (Low-A): 4 GS, 14.0 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 19 K

Rafael DePaula (High-A): 3 GS, 14.1 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 19 K

Manny Banuelos (High-A): 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 12 K

I haven't talked too much about prospects since the season began, but the Yankees getting good starts from arguably their top 3 pitching prospects definitely bears mentioning.  A lot of people soured quickly on DePaula when he struggled in Tampa last year and I didn't think that was fair.  He's looked much better so far in his return trip.  Severino got started off slow with light workloads, but he had the reins taken out him last night and he responded with 5.2 shutout innings, 8 K, and 0 BB.  ManBan actually tossed 3 scoreless appearances before giving up all 4 of his ER in his last outing.  More important than his results are how good his stuff and command has looked and they've both looked very good.

With 2nd-tier guys like Nik Turley, Jose Ramirez, Jose Campos, and Ty Hensley yet to start their seasons for a variety of health/injury-related reasons, it's good to see the Yanks getting something positive from the cream of their pitching prospect crop.  Once the weather warms up some more, I expect we'll see ManBan start to get moved back up towards Triple-A.

Keith Law Scouts Double-A Trenton

This is almost a week old and I missed it initially, but Keith Law of ESPN attended the Opening Day game for the Trenton Thunder last week and filed a scouting report on some of the big name prospects playing.   Toronto pitching prospect Aaron Sanchez (not the "Chopped" judge) was the highlight of Law's report, but he also gave his takes on Yankee prospects Bryan Mitchell, Gary Sanchez, and Mason Williams.  The whole article is here and it's an Insider only piece, so here are the highlights for those without Insider access:

- Law isn't a big fan of Mitchell.  He liked his fastball velocity and believes Mitchell's cutter could eventually become his best pitch, but long-term he sees Mitchell as more of a relief prospect based on his lack of fastball movement and curveball command.

- Sanchez looked to be a little too much for Sanchez in 1 AB, but Law thought Sanchez looked pretty good behind the plate considering how often Mitchell was junking curveballs all over the place.

- Williams, despite hitting the ball hard a few times, still isn't showing enough maturity in his approach for Law's liking.  Law described Williams as "too aggressive for his own good" and said this is the year where we need to see some improvement in the finer points of Williams' game to match his tools.

Thoughts On The Minor League Rosters

(Should be the starting Triple-A catcher.  Courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Minor League season gets started tonight, and while I don't want to steal any of Tamar's team-by-team season preview thunder, I did want to comment on some of the roster decisions.  Each club officially released their Opening Day rosters yesterday, some more complete and correctly than others.  There are some surprising and not so surprising decisions at almost every level, which is pretty par for the course in the world of managing a wide range of prospects and non-prospects.  Here's my 2 cents on the early roster breakdowns for the 4 full-season MiL teams (click the team names for the full rosters).

Yanks Well Represented On Baseball America's "Also-Rans" Prospect List

It's been a little less than 2 weeks since Baseball America released the 2014 edition of its "Top 100 Prospects" list, a list that didn't include many Yankee prospects.  Only 2 of their players made the list and 1 those 2 was Masahiro Tanaka, so there was really only 1 true "prospect" to make the cut.

Yesterday, BA gave a further look inside the process that led to the final determination of their top 100 with the release of their full list of "also-rans".  This list included every player who made at least 1 appearance on one of the voters' top 150 lists and that list had a much greater accumulation of Yankee farmhands than the final 100, 9 to be exact.  J.R. Murphy, Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Eric Jagielo, Aaron Judge, Ian Clarkin, and Gosuke Katoh all made an appearance on 1 top 150 list or another, exemplifying the high amount of "almost there" fringe top prospect talent that the system does have.

It's been talked about at length by everybody at some point this offseason, but the Yankees could very well make the jump into the top 10 of next year's organizational rankings if this second tier of prospects and a few guys returning from injury combine to have a strong 2014 campaign.

P.S.- The complete 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 in your grillmix again.  Live it, learn it, love it.

Yanks Need To Stay Aggressive With Their Outfield Prospects

(Courtesy of Princeton Magazine)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The double whammy of Alex Rodriguez dropping his lawsuits and Masahiro Tanaka being introduced to the press all but a put a bow on the 2013-2014 offseason.  In a few short days it'll be back to baseball. The focus will shift back to the diamond and the gaggle of new players that will be gracing it in Yankee pinstripes this season.  The outfield is arguably the most revamped part of the roster, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran taking over for Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells, Brett Gardner shifting back to left field, and a full season of Alfonso Soriano to look forward to.

The regular 4-man outfield rotation is set, which could leave very little playing time for Ichiro as the 5th outfielder and even less for Zoilo Almonte as the emergency 6th.  With this boost in outfield depth, it may seem like the Yankees have reason to pump the brakes on developing their group of top outfield prospects.  Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott are both coming off underwhelming seasons and are blocked in center by Ellsbury, and Tyler Austin is focused on getting and staying healthy and getting back on track offensively after starting his pro career mashing.  I don't say it that way though.  If it were me calling the shots on the farm, I'd say this is the perfect time to keep pushing these guys, maybe even more aggressively than before.

AB4AR's Top 5 Prospect Tools: Defense

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Just when you thought Prospect Week was over, it reaches up out of the water like Jason at the end of the original "Friday The 13th" and pulls you back under one more time.

I mentioned last week that I didn't get to touch on as many of the tool rankings as I wanted to, so I figured a slow news day was a good time to circle back and hit the one I most wanted to cover.  Like I did with the pitching stuff rankings last week, I'm going to make things easy here and lump all the various defensive skills into one category for this list.  Speed, range, hands, footwork, timing, arm strength, instincts, it's all being balled up into the "defense" category, otherwise I don't think I could ever settle on a top 5 for each individual skill.  After the jump, my top 5 defensive prospects.

Marc Hulet Releases His Top 10 Yankee Prospects List

He's a little late to the party, but Marc Hulet of FanGraphs released his annual top 10 organizational prospect rankings for the Yankees today.  Like most of the other more mainstream evaluators, he considers the Yankee system to be "middle of the road" right now.  He also gave them praise for their recent drafts and strong international scouting that has filled the lower levels with more young talent.  Click the link to read his full takes on each of his top 10 players.  For the quick and dirty version, here's that top 10:

1) Gary Sanchez
2) J.R. Murphy
3) Eric Jagielo
4) Mason Williams
5) Slade Heathcott
6) Aaron Judge
7) Ian Clarkin
8) Greg Bird
9) Jose Ramirez
10) Tyler Austin

Most of the usual suspects, although this is definitely the highest I've seen Jagielo ranked anywhere.  Can't argue with that top 2 though.  What's that saying about great minds... ?

P.S.- Perfect time for a shameless plug.  If you haven't already, check out the AB4AR Top 30 from last week.

AB4AR's Top 5 Prospect Tools: Stuff

(Courtesy of Baseball America)

I wanted this to be split up into a few more posts on pitching tools, I just didn't have the time to get to them individually this week.  Instead, I'm going to try to kill a few bird with one stone and lump everything together into a post ranking my top 5 "stuff" guys in the Yankee system right now.  Stuff alone is not enough to get a pitching prospect to the show.  It's really only as good as a pitcher's command of it will allow it to be.  But there are precious few pitchers who make it all the way to the Majors without at least having "good" stuff and a look around the Yankee farm right now will show that they aren't lacking on guys with good natural stuff.  My picks for the 5 best stuff makeups in the system after the jump.

Keith Law Ranks His Top 11 Yankee Prospects

I really have to hand it to Keith Law.  Guys really knows how to upstage a small timer like myself.  Good old Keith decided it was a good idea to have his prospect week while I was having my prospect week, and he continued it yesterday by releasing his top 11 Yankee prospects list.  The list, for those without Insider access, is as follows:

1) Gary Sanchez
2) Tyler Austin
3) Mason Williams
4) J.R. Murphy
5) Slade Heathcott
6) Aaron Judge
7) Ian Clarkin
8) Eric Jagielo
9) Luis Severino
10) Greg Bird
11) Jose Ramirez

I'm going to withhold all comments on Law's list, and instead use it as an introduction to the final third of this year's AB4AR Top 30.  You can see his top 10 right here and my top 10 will be coming out in a few short hours.  Law's been stealing thunder all week, but come 11 AM Central time we'll see whose Prospect Week and top 10 list is really #1.

AB4AR's Top 5 Prospect Tools: Speed

(Courtesy of MiLB.com)

Speed kills.  Everybody knows that.  Everybody also knows that the Yankees, year to year, aren't always the fleetest of foot on the basepaths.  They've been better in recent years than they were in the mid-2000s, but with Derek Jeter getting older, Brett Gardner possibly gone via free agency after this season, and Curtis Granderson playing for the little brother across town, the collective speed threat in their lineup could be better.  Luckily there are more than a few prospects in the system with a plus speed tool.  None of them are Billy Hamilton-esque warpaths running the bases, but they've got enough giddy-up to be major base-stealing threats in the future.

AB4AR's Top 5 Prospect Tools: Power

(The Judge.  Courtesy of Fresno St. Athletic Dept.)

Power can take you a long way in baseball.  We all know that chicks dig the long ball, but owners, general managers, and coaches dig it too.  The home run is the best possible outcome of any at-bat, and the more of them you're capable of hitting the higher your offensive ceiling is going to be and the more teams are going to want you around.  The Yankee farm system isn't overloaded with power right now.  It's got a few guys with serious power potential, but no one who's really stepped up and mashed at an elite level for a full season.  If 1 or 2 of these high power potential guys starts translating it to consistent in-game power this year, 25-30+ in a season, they're going to draw a lot of positive attention.  As an added feature to Prospect Week 2014, here are my top 5 power guys in the system right now.

Welcome To AB4AR Prospect Week 2014

(The original #1.  The Jesus)

In late December of 2011, I was home for Christmas and bored at my parents' house during the week so I decided to put together my first top Yankee prospects list.  The inaugural AB4AR Top 30 admittedly wasn't very good, but going through the process of doing it opened my eyes to the world of prospect evaluation and I think it made me much smarter about how I follow and rank prospects.

Which brings us to today, the start of AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 and the unveiling of the 3rd edition of the AB4AR Top 30.  If you followed Prospect Week last year, you know that the format has already been changed a little bit but the overall format for the next 5 days will stay the same.  Today I'll go back and look at all the players from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who didn't make the 2013-2014 edition, tomorrow I'll focus on the players who just missed the cut this year, and Wednesday through Friday will be the actual release of this year's Top 30 in 10-player chunks.

If you're not familiar with AB4AR or my prospect evaluation process, I invite you to read this post I did last year explaining my system.  Long story short, I tend to value consistent production and advancement through the system more than just raw tools and high ceiling.  I also think there's more value in a lower ceiling player at a higher level of the system than a "toolsy" 17 or 18-year-old in rookie ball, especially when that player plays a position of need for the Major League club.  To further familiarize yourself with the AB4AR system, feel free to check out last year's AB4AR Top 30 as well.

Time permitting this week, I'll try to work on some posts on player tools and who I think has the best in the system but the real focus is the 5 major posts mentioned above.  Check back this afternoon for the first one on the group of players who fell off this year's Top 30 and welcome again one and all to AB4AR Prospect Week.