Should Vidal Nuno Even Be In The Rotation Anymore?

("Try to keep this one in the park, guy."  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

On Saturday morning, it was like things were finally starting to come together.  The Yankees had won 4 games in a row and looked pretty good doing it in all aspects of the game.  By last night, things were right back to normal.  Shoddy infield defense, inconsistent performances from the lower-level middle relievers, the inability to string hits together and drive guys in, and VERY uneven starting pitching.

Actually, uneven might be understating it a touch.  It was horrible.  After David Phelps' brilliant work on Friday night, the last 2 Yankee starters combined to give up 12 ER in just 7.2 IP on Saturday and Sunday.  The bulk of that (in the smaller amount of innings) came from the left hand of Vidal Nuno.  He gave up 6 ER to the first 10 batters he faced yesterday, and 8 overall in 3 innings.  Dom alluded to it earlier this morning and Katie hinted at it a few weeks ago, so now I'm just going to come right out and ask the question that needs asking.  Should Vidal Nuno still have a spot in the rotation?

Jeter Getting Beast Moded By Fastballs

It's been an ugly final season for The Captain to say the least.  While he has managed to stay almost completely healthy and on the field for the entirety, he's looked like an extremely weak and watered down version of the player he was as recently as 2 years ago.  Father Time has caught up to Derek Jeter in a big way and easiest way to see that is to look at how bad he's been against fastballs.  That's a topic that Mike Petriello of FanGraphs covered earlier today, and while I invite and encourage you to read the whole thing because it's great, the standout of the piece is this statement:

"In April, Jeter saw just 30.9 percent fastballs at or above 92. Since May 1, that’s jumped by 10 percent, and while there’s something to be said for the overall velocity of the sport tending to increase past April, the fact is simply this: Jeter can’t catch up to good fastballs any longer, and teams are increasingly taking advantage of it. It’s getting to the point than other than the occasional breaking ball just to keep him from timing it, you wonder why he’s ever not seeing fastballs."

There it is in a nutshell, folks.  The word is out that Jeter ain't what he used to be and pitchers are just dialing it up knowing that he can't do anything with it.  The signs have been there since April, when his solid start was almost entirely right field-focused, and they've been coming to the forefront ever since.  The Farewell Tour appears to be the priority for the Yankees over winning games, so whatever, maybe it's not that big a deal.  As long as that continues and Jeter stays in the 2-hole, the Yankee offense will continue to underperform because there's nothing to indicate he's going to turn this around.

Don't Sleep On Chase Whitley

(Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankees have battled rotation inconsistencies since Opening Day.  Be it the underperformance of CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, the injuries to Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Michael Pineda, or the uneven, all-or-nothing nature of their injury replacements, the only thing constant about the group has been the non-constantness with which it has operated.  Except for Tanaka of course.

Well, him and the newest member of the injury-replacement brigade.  Chase Whitley took a spot in the rotation on May 15th, replacing Sabathia and becoming the "new" 5th starter.  He's made 5 starts in that spot and pitched to a 2.42/2.26/3.74 triple slash in 26.0 innings pitched.  He's been worth 0.9 fWAR in those 5 starts, tied for 2nd best among all team starters with Kuroda, and has helped to somewhat stabilize the back end of the rotation.  Last night he had his best start to date, pitching 7 innings of 2-run and not walking a batter while striking out 3.  Is this for real?  How is he doing this?

Matt Thornton Getting Put On Notice

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Hey, Matt.  You got a minute, bud?  I wanted to talk to you about something.  I know you're still the #1 lefty in the bullpen right now and the only one Joe would consider going to in a key lefty-lefty matchup situation.  And I know it may look like you're maintaining that "kinda-sorta pretty good/mostly unlucky" level you were at last month to the untrained eye, so you think you shouldn't have anything to worry about.  But here's a word to the wise.  Don't get too comfortable, brother.  Because the Yanks are making moves to find a replacement for you, whether you realize it or not.

Alfonso Soriano Sucks

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

This worked pretty well to paint the picture of how bad Brian McCann has been last week.  I figured, why not keep that fun going and do it again for Alfonso Soriano, he of the team-worst -0.4 fWAR through 56 games.  He's been just as big a drain on the offensive production as McCann but hasn't gotten nearly the coverage.  Until now.

• Soriano hit .220/.233/.378 in May with a 34.9% K rate and 2.3% BB rate
• He hasn't hit a home run since 5/17 and only hit 2 in May
• He has just 2 RBI since 5/17, only had 9 in May, and doesn't have a single multi-RBI game this year
• Among the 20 players with 100+ plate appearances who qualify as DHs this season, Soriano ranks 19th in OBP (.256), 13th in SLG (.399), 16th in wOBA (.282), 16th in wRC+ (73), 15th in fWAR, 3rd in K rate (28.2%), and dead last in BB rate (3.1%)

Examining Tanaka's Performance On Different Rest Schedules

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Almost a third of the way through the 2014 season, it would be hard to call Masahiro Tanaka's first year as a Yankee anything but spectacular thus far.  In 10 starts, he's pitched to a 2.29/2.61/2.30 slash in 70.2 innings with 79 strikeouts and only 10 walks.  His 28.5% K rate is tied with Zack Greinke for the best in MLB.  His splitter might already be the single best pitch in baseball.  He's got a 48.2% K rate on it and only a .318 OPS against.  He's quickly become not only the most must-see player on the Yankees and their unquestioned ace in the face of all their rotation injuries, he's also become one of the must-see players in the entire league and one of the best pitchers in the game.

One of the biggest things the Yankees wanted to do with Tanaka this season was ease him into the transition from the Japanese Leagues to MLB.  A major part of that easing was the extra rest Joe said he wanted to give him early in the season to get Tanaka's body and arm used to pitching every fifth day.  Through both smart strategic and lucky weather-related decisions, Joe has employed that strategy perfectly through the first 2 months.  Tanaka has made 6 of his 10 starts with 1 day or more of extra rest, and the extra time off actually has him 1 start behind almost every other top starting pitcher.  The rest has certainly helped keep Tanaka fresh and served the purpose of scaling back his early workload, but has it made a difference in his performance?  Let's check the numbers.

Prospect Stock Watch: May 2014

(The new second baseman of the future?  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Another month is almost in the books.  That means it's time to check the prospect ticker and see who's been making gains and who's been dropping with their performance this month.  Two months in and I still don't know how I feel about the farm system this year.  There's a lot of guys having better seasons than I expected, but there's also a lot of preseason top guys who aren't living up to expectations at all.  Here are the players who stood out to me for better and worse in May.

Brian McCann Sucks

I mean really sucks.  It's startling how bad he's been at the plate.  He's been awful, no other way to describe it.  Here's where McCann's key offensive numbers rank among his fellow catchers:

• .218 BA- Last among 12 qualified/26th out of 29 w/ at least 100 plate appearances
• .275 OBP- Last qualified/27th out of 29
• .370 SLG- Last/25th
• .286 wOBA- Last/26th
• 75 wRC+- Last/26th
• 0.5 fWAR- Last/24th
• 5.6% BB rate- 11th/22nd

The only thing keeping his offensive ship afloat is the 7 HR he's popped (tied for 2nd best among all catchers) and the 22 RBI that puts him comfortably in the top 10.  The only thing he's truly done well this season has been catch.  McCann is generating almost all his value from what he's doing behind the plate.  What he's doing at the plate only seems to be getting worse.

Jacoby's Rotten Month Of May

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It's been the best of times and the worst of times for Jacoby Ellsbury in his first 2 months as a New York Yankee.  In April, he hit .312/.369/.452 in 103 plate appearances divided between the leadoff and #3 lineup spots, played a solid center field, and made a very good first impression on Yankee fans.  He was among the team and American League leaders in hits (29), runs scored (14), and stolen bases (8).

May has been far less kind to Ellsbury.  His production has dropped off dramatically, he's been a negative fWAR player, and the whispers about the Yankees overpaying have started popping up as they usually do when a player signs the kind of contract Jacoby did to come to new York.  After last night's 0-fer, Ellsbury's May slash line is down to .206/.315/.302.  He's scored 1 run in his last 5 games, has 1 hit in his last 7, 1 stolen base in his last 14, and 1 RBI in his last 15.  His season tripleslash is down to .269/.347/.391, good for a .325 wOBA and 102 wRC+.  What the hell happened to cause him to fall off this badly?

Gardner Thriving In The Leadoff Spot

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees brought Jacoby Ellsbury in to be their leadoff hitter.  They knew that, he knew that, and Brett Gardner knew that.  With Ellsbury hitting first and Derek Jeter holding down the #2 spot based more on reputation and tribute rather than merit, Gardner was left without a clearly defined role or spot in the batting order heading into the season.  Best suited to hit in the 1 or 2 spot, Gardner was relegated to the bottom third of the order as a pseudo-sorta second leadoff hitter.

Matt Thornton: Ineffective Or Unlucky?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There have been plenty of problems in the Yankee bullpen in the first 6 weeks.  One that isn't getting a lot of attention is the performance of Matt Thornton.  Brought in as the lone free agent reliever to replace Boone Logan, Thornton didn't inspire confidence that he had a lot left with his ST effort (7 H, 3 ER, 2 K in 4.0 IP), and so far in the regular season he's been pretty meh.  In 6.2 innings pitched spread over 16 appearances, Thornton owns a 5.40/3.85/5.02 tripleslash with only 5 strikeouts and 3 walks.  He's been perfectly mediocre despite mostly being used correctly in short outings by Joe, but has it really been all his fault?

The Maturation Of Dellin Betances

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

He toiled away in the Minors for so long that I didn't even consider him a prospect anymore coming into this season.  If anything, Dellin Betances was still a project at 25 years old and turning 26 before Opening Day.  Despite being in the Yankee system since 2006 and making his Major League debut in 2011, Betances only had 7.2 innings pitched in 8 games in his Major League career.  Once thought of as a potential ace starting pitching prospect, the Yankees finally gave up on that dream early last season and converted Betances to a full-time relief role.

Is Carlos Beltran Slumping Or Not?

The recent dearth of offense from the revamped lineup has been driven primarily by the lack of production from the middle of the lineup.  Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Alfonso Soriano have been swinging cold bats for the better part of the last 2 weeks, and there simply hasn't been enough production from the other 6 spots in the batting order to make up for that.  McCann and Soriano have never really found their stride since Opening Day, even with a few big power days mixed in, but Beltran was arguably the best hitter in the lineup for the first few weeks.  He's cooled down to the point of being frigid at the plate, and with him being older and having a history of leg problems, I thought it was worth investigating the legitimacy of his downtrend in production similar to how I looked at Derek Jeter over the weekend.

Prospect Stock Watch: April 2014

(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It's been a tough start to the year for the farm system.  With a handful of top prospects missing the start of the season as they recovered from offseason health problems (Slade Heathcott, Greg Bird, Ty Hensley), the Yankees have watched more injuries strike down a significant portion of other recognizable names.  From Nik Turley and Jose Ramirez in Spring Training, to Tyler Austin last week, to the announcement of Jose Campos' season-ending TJS over the weekend, there's seemingly been a top guy going on the DL every few days.  That's created opportunities for other players to step up, but so far nobody has created a bigger name for himself than he already had.  With April 2 days away from ending and the sample sizes growing to an almost meaningful size, here are the guys who've helped and hurt their prospect stock the most in the first month.

Mixed Results From Teix In His First Week Back

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The defining image of last night's game was not Masahiro Tanaka walking off the mound after 1 of his 11 strikeouts.  As well as he battled to keep his team in the game against Garrett Richards, the most memorable moment last night was Mark Teixeira turning on a 94 MPH Richards fastball that was belt high and on the inner half of the plate, hitting it high and deep into right field, and pausing for a second to watch it land in the second deck.  I'm talking that "no doubt about it" split second of pimpage that Teix does when he really knows he got one.  I'm talking about this:

(Courtesy of ESPN/MLB.com)

Examining Derek Jeter's Early Contact Trends

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

For all the concern about how he'd be physically this year coming into spring camp, concern that I admittedly shared, it was a pretty quiet Spring Training for Derek Jeter.  He was on his own schedule, he got into games early enough, he never reported any problems with his ankle or legs, never had any issues really.  He worked at his pace, felt good, and was ready to play when the regular season started.  What was a small concern was how quiet his bat was in ST.  Jeter hit .137/.214/.157 in 51 spring at-bats, striking out 10 times and hitting a ton of groundballs.

Regular season production is what really matters and Jeter's was going to be watched closely regardless of how he hit in the spring simply because he was a shortstop turning 40 and coming off a season lost to injuries.  He's played in 9 of the Yankees' first 10 games and so far that production has been pretty good.  Jeter wakes up today with a .290/.389/.355 slash line, 3 runs scored, 2 doubles, 4 walks, and a .342 wOBA.  After a weak-hitting spring camp, Jeter appears to have found his timing and his early contact rates are encouraging.

McCann's Slow Start Could Be Due To Lack Of Selectivity

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Despite spending more than a few bucks to upgrade the offense this past offseason, the Yankees have been slow to see any fruit from their free agent labor.  They've scored 29 runs in their first 8 games, good for 18th in MLB, and their 3 HR are still just enough to keep them out of the basement in that category and tied for 29th.  The biggest reason for this sputtering offensive start is the lack of production from the middle of the order.  Mark Teixeira hit the DL before he even got going, Alfonso Soriano is just now starting to find his stroke after a rusty start, and both Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann are sporting sub-.500 OPS values in 60 combined plate appearances.

Obviously there's going to be improvement from all 4 of these guys as the season progresses, everybody gets settled in, and Teix gets healthy again.  But in looking at McCann's rough start, the roughest of all at .172/.200/.172, there could be a pretty simple explanation and an easy fix.

Are The Yankees Overvaluing Their Own Relief Pitchers?

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Whatever the reason, be it the desire to wait for the A-Rod suspension verdict, Masahiro Tanaka taking top priority presently, a last gasp attempt to stay below the luxury tax threshold, or a combination of the 3, the slow pace with which the Yankees have gone about rebuilding their bullpen this offseason doesn't feel right to me.  For the most part, strong bullpens have been a staple of the last 15-20 years of Yankee teams.  The 2013 edition was hit or miss, burned by a group inability to keep the ball in the ballpark and a soft middle relief underbelly that took its share of beatings before some games could even get to D-Rob and Mo.  Mo is gone now, along with top lefty Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain.  Chamberlain is a loss in man power only, and nobody needs to be reminded that a pitcher like Mo can't be replaced, but for a group that lost that many innings it seems like the Yanks would want to make an effort to replace more than just their LOOGY.

Mark Reynolds vs. Jeff Baker- Who Ya Got?

Joel Sherman threw another name into the free agent hat yesterday when he reported that the Yankees had "expressed interest" in utility man Jeff Baker.  They've been linked to him before but never made any serious moves and he actually makes a ton of sense for them right now.  They're also still linked to Mark Reynolds but it's highly unlikely they have room for both on next year's roster.  So who would you rather have?

Reynolds Career Averages: .233/.329/.464, .344 wOBA, 28.86 HR*
Baker Career Averages: .267/.321/.440, .330 wOBA, 5.33 HR*

Reynolds Career vs. LHP: .238/.359/.475, .361 wOBA
Baker Career vs. LHP: .298/.353/.522, .375 wOBA

Reynolds Career BB/K Rates: 11.6% BB/32.3% K
Baker Career BB/K Rates: 7.1% BB/24.0% K

Reynolds Defensively: Well below-average at the infield corners; hasn't played the outfield since '07
Baker Defensively: Below-average at the infield corners, well below-average at second, below-average in the outfield but capable of playing it.

Closer than you thought, right?  Reynolds provides the power and patience that fits well with the Yankee offensive model, but he's a big time hacker and a butcher in the field.  Baker is a more balanced hitter with tremendous power potential against lefties and he can play more positions, although none of them particularly well.  Take your pick, Cash.  Just don't lose out on both of them.

*- Baker has never played more than 104 games in a season.  Reynolds has never played less than 111.

What Not To Like About The McCann Signing

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

If you were away from all forms of media or under the proverbial rock this past weekend, the Yankees and Brian McCann agreed to a 5-year/$85 million deal.  The deal comes with a vesting option that can make it 6 years/$100 million and it's contingent on McCann passing a physical, but there's little reason to think that won't happen.  For all intents and purposes, McCann can be considered the Yankees' new starting catcher.

The reaction to the signing has been most positive thus far.  I know I was a big fan of it.  In McCann, the Yankees got the best player available at their position of greatest weakness in his prime, and they got him for basically market value.  That's not to say the deal is a 100%, no-doubt win for the Yankees.  There are a few things that could turn the signing against the Yanks, things that surely influenced William's decision to steer clear of McCann in his Project 189 team construction before starting to come around to the idea of McCann at catcher yesterday.  In the interest of looking at this deal from all angles, here are the things that could potentially turn it into a loser for the Yankees down the road.