Yanks Need To Get Back To Having A Home Field Advantage

Home is where the heart is.  It's also where the advantage is supposed to be for a Major League Baseball team.  That hasn't been the case for the Yankees through their first 94 games of the 2014 season.  Of the 41 they've played at Yankee Stadium, they have an 18-23 record.  They've been oustscored by 45 in those games and outhomered by 11.  Those results cannot continue in the final 68 games.

The Yanks will play 41 of these final 68 games at home, the most home games remaining for any team.  They open the second half tonight at home against Cincy in the first of what will be 10 straight at The Stadium, their longest homestand of the season.  The schedule on paper is set up very favorably for the Yankees, which should be a help to them and their bare bones backup rotation, but that favorability will only extend as far as the team's performance on the field takes it.  They haven't hit well at home, they haven't pitched well at home, and they've had no home field advantage whatsoever this year.  That needs to change if they're going to make a run.

Some Random Yankee-Centric Numbers At The Break

- The Opening Day rotation has started 53 of the team's 94 games (56.4%)

- Of the 41 other starts, 40 of them have been made by pitchers with a combined 26 career starts before this season.

- 23 of those 26 career starts belong to David Phelps.

- Yankee second basemen YTD: .251/.322/.395, 43 R, 27 RBI
- Robinson Cano YTD: .334/.393/.462, 49 R, 57 RBI

- Carlos Beltran YTD: .216/.271/.401, -0.8 fWAR in 255 PA
- Curtis Granderson YTD: .237/.346/.422, 1.8 fWAR in 387 PA

- Since the start of May, David Robertson has struck out 49.1% of all batters he's faced (54 of 110).

- Yanks w/ RISP: .251/.321/.363
- Yanks w/ RISP, 2 outs: .213/.295/.308

- Record: 47-47, -37 run differential (4th worst in the AL)

Sigh...

Sunday Morning Food For Thought: Does Rob Thomson Need To Go?

Yup, Yankees still lead AL in outs made at home plate (15). Had 13 all of last year.
— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) July 12, 2014

Fellow IIATMS teammate Katie Sharp tweeted that stat out last night and it absolutely blew me away.  I knew the Yankees had lost a few runs this year by getting thrown out at the plate. It's going to happen more than a few times over the course of the season, but that many?  In a little more than 90 games??  That's incredibly problematic, and suggestive of something more than just bad luck or great defensive plays.

Take the second gun down at the plate last night.  Jacoby Ellsbury had barely reached third base when Adam Jones picked up the single hit to him in the outfield.  Jones has a cannon for an arm, something that's no longer a surprise to anybody in baseball, and yet Rob Thomson chose to send Ellsbury anyway.  Ellsbury was predictably thrown out and the inning was over.

When you struggle to score runs as much as the Yankees do, every run is important.  They can't afford to be giving away runs with careless baserunning and the high number of runs they've given up by getting thrown out at the plate has to fall on Thomson's shoulders.  Firing him now will do little to change the team's overall offensive problems, but after this season maybe it's time for Joe to shake up his coaching staff and bring somebody new in to handle third, somebody who can make better decisions and not run his team out of potential runs by being unnecessarily aggressive.

Congratulations To Ichiro...

... For finally getting another extra-base hit and ending a nearly 2-month drought without one!  Well done, Ichiro.  Well done indeed.

His triple to center field to lead off the bottom of the 5th last night was Ichiro's first of the season.  It was also his first XBH since May 3rd, when he had 2 doubles against the Rays.  That's a stretch of 115 plate appearances, 56 calendar days, and exactly 50 games between XBHs, which is almost impressive.  You'd think someone with Ichiro's "speed" would be able to leg out a bloop double at some point over a 56-day span, but he found a way to not even hit enough bloopers for one to drop into a favorable spot.  Helluva job by a world-class hitter to keep a streak like that going.

For those keeping track, Ichiro's season batting line is down to .297/.349/.335.  He's hitting .268/.303/.296 in the month of June, his production regressing back to a more appropriate level now that he's playing every day.  Just another friendly reminder to all the Ichiro lovers out there that he's washed up and to the Yankee front office that it's never a good idea to sign a no-power hitter in his late 30s to a multi-year deal.

Monday Morning Food For Thought: Offense Is Still Offensive

2 weeks ago, I declared it time for a change in response to the Yankees losing 2-1 to the Royals.  That game marked the 10th straight in which they failed to score more than 4 runs, a stretch that saw them go 3-7 and fall back to .500.

Over the last 2 weeks, the Yanks have gone 8-4 on the strength of 2 separate 4-game winning streaks.  The latest ended on Friday night with the walk-off victory over the Orioles, as the Yanks managed to score a single run in the final 2 games and dropped both easily.  The offensive blackout brought the issues of 2 weeks ago back to the forefront and a quick check of the numbers shows that not much has changed since June 9th despite the W-L record.

• Brian Roberts in June: 60 PA, .235/.350/.275
• Ichiro Suzuki: 60 PA, .304/.333/.304
• Carlos Beltran: 61 PA, .185/.262/.370
• Brian McCann: 69 PA, .195/.275/.290
• Derek Jeter: 83 PA, .253/.277/.291
• Yangervis Solarte: 63 PA, .148/.270/.204

That's two-thirds of the lineup hitting well below-average this month.  Kelly Johnson and Alfonso Soriano have also hit below the .300 wOBA in limited PA.  When that's what you're getting from the bulk of your major offensive contributors, and the above-average production you're getting from the other 3 (Gardner, Ellsbury, Teix) isn't great enough to carry a team, that's not good.  The halfway point of the regular season is 1 week away and the offense remains stuck in the mud.  That change I talked about 2 weeks ago?  It's still needed in a big way.

Wednesday Morning Food For Thought: Nothing Like A Good Old Strikeout

Mashiro Tanaka: 113 K in 99.2 IP
Dellin Betances: 68 K in 40.2 IP
David Robertson: 43 K in 23.2 IP

The strikeout is the best possible outcome for any at-bat from the pitching side.  The Yankees have 3 of the best in the business when it comes to getting strikeouts and all 3 of them were in action last night.  Correction, they WERE the action last night.  15 combined Ks in 9 innings, 6 of those victims being Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, the 3 best Toronto hitters.  Tanaka struck out all 3 for the side in the 5th inning, Betances nailed them twice in the 8th, and D-Rob ended the game with a K after a 2-out triple.

Betances and D-Rob's combined total of 111 strikeouts is the most by any relief duo in baseball.  By a lot.  The next closest is Andrew Miller and Koji Uehara with 88.  Tanaka is tied for 2nd most among all starters behind David Price.  When you're playing a lot of close games and not scoring a lot of runs, run prevention becomes even more important.  The best way to prevent runs is to prevent guys from putting the ball in play and these 3 have shown a tremendous knack for coming up with those big strikeouts in big moments.

Thursday Late Morning Food For Thought: Home Field Blues

It seems clear Yanks don't win at home because they don't hit home runs and other teams do. On the road, their pitching can dictate outcomes
— David Waldstein (@DavidWaldstein) June 12, 2014

David Waldstein tweeted that thought out earlier this morning in response to last night's victory, and while it's not 100% accurate, there are shreds of truth in there that can help explain some of the team's offensive struggles.

It's not that the Yankees don't hit home runs at home.  Of their 52 total HR to date, they've hit 35 of them at home in 29 home games and 17 in 35 games on the road.  But the suggestion that the Yankees are not taking full home field advantage at YS3 is a valid one.  They've scored 106 runs in their 29 home games, good for 3.65 runs per game, compared to 150 runs in their 35 road games, good for a 4.29 R/G average.  In 6 more road games, they have 50 more total hits, including more doubles and triples and more stolen bases as a result.  The value of the higher power output at home is not being maximized because there haven't been as many guys on base to drive in.

Monday Late Morning Food For Thought: Enough Is Enough, And It's Time For A Change*

Yesterday's game was the culmination of 2 weeks of horrifically bad offensive production.  There were some legitimate excuses for that while guys like Teix and Beltran were out of the lineup, but they both returned last week and those returns did nothing to change the piss poor performance.  1-17 with runners in scoring position is almost unfathomable, even more so when you consider the fact that the 1 hit they did get with RISP yesterday didn't even score a run.  Heading into tonight's game, here's where the Yankees find themselves offensively:

• 13th in the American League (out of 15 teams) in Runs Scored with 249
• 12th in OBP (.315)
• 10th in SLG (.382)
• 12th in wOBA (.309)
• 13th in wRC+ (91)
• 14th in total position player fWAR (4.4)

The Yanks left themselves vulnerable to this when they tried to fill out their roster on the cheap, they took a passive wait-and-see approach with the injuries and lost out on a player who could have helped the offense, and now they're reaping what they've sewn.  The time for excuses is gone now and all that matters is fixing this.  I'm not sure what can or will be done but it better be something.  Despite their poor offensive output, the Yanks are only 5 games out in the loss column in the AL east and 2 out in the Wild Card.  If they're going to stay committed to contending, which is what they said they were doing when they had the big offseason spending spree, maintaining this status quo ain't going to cut it.

* P.S.- If you got that Owen Hart reference in the post title, I want to be friends with you.

Wednesday Morning Food For Thought: How Bad Have The Yankees Been Against Left-Handed Pitching?

Joe took a big swing at his lineup last night to try to get some offense going.  He loaded up on right-handed bats against southpaw starter Scott Kazmir, inserting John Ryan Murphy and Scott Sizemore into the lineup for Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann, and giving Brendan Ryan a night at shorstop while The Captain DH'd.  The results weren't there again (2 runs and only 1 XBH against Kazmir), and it made me wonder if the Yankees just stink against lefties this year.  Have they been so bad that it necessitated all the moves Joe made?

Not really.  As a team, the Yankees have a .716 OPS against LHP this season.  It's not great by any means, but at 17th in MLB it's hardly the worst in the world.  The Yanks have actually been worse against right-handed starters with a .697 team OPS and an 18-19 records against them compared to 11-9 in 20 games against lefties.

There's certainly no harm in changing things up when your team isn't hitting, and with somebody like McCann I have no problem with Joe using the L/R matchup game to give him a day of rest.  Production against southpaws has not been the Yankees' biggest problem this year, however, and Joe might be better served tweaking his batting order against righties (coughcough, move Jeter down, cough cough!!) to help pull his club out of this offensive funk.

Alfonso Soriano Sucks

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

This worked pretty well to paint the picture of how bad Brian McCann has been last week.  I figured, why not keep that fun going and do it again for Alfonso Soriano, he of the team-worst -0.4 fWAR through 56 games.  He's been just as big a drain on the offensive production as McCann but hasn't gotten nearly the coverage.  Until now.

• Soriano hit .220/.233/.378 in May with a 34.9% K rate and 2.3% BB rate
• He hasn't hit a home run since 5/17 and only hit 2 in May
• He has just 2 RBI since 5/17, only had 9 in May, and doesn't have a single multi-RBI game this year
• Among the 20 players with 100+ plate appearances who qualify as DHs this season, Soriano ranks 19th in OBP (.256), 13th in SLG (.399), 16th in wOBA (.282), 16th in wRC+ (73), 15th in fWAR, 3rd in K rate (28.2%), and dead last in BB rate (3.1%)

Power Outage

May 17th- Yankees hit 5 home runs and 1 double in a 7-1 victory over the Pirates.

12 games since- Yanks have hit 4 HR, 2 triples, and 9 doubles.

6 XBH in 1 game, 15 total XBH in a dozen games.  That's not bad, that's awful.  The Yanks haven't hit a home run since 5/25 and the complete lack of power in their lineup was never more exposed than last night against Ricky Nolasco, the guy who came into the game with the second most hits allowed and second highest ERA among all qualifying pitchers in the AL.

They're all saying the right things about the power problem, but talk is cheap.  They don't know what they're going to get from Teix or Beltran in the power department thanks to their arm injuries, they already know they're not going to get much from guys like Jeter and Roberts, and at this point who knows what to expect from Soriano and McCann.  The lack of pop is a huge problem and it needs to be addressed.  They can't continue to hit this weakly with this patchwork rotation.

Brian McCann Sucks

I mean really sucks.  It's startling how bad he's been at the plate.  He's been awful, no other way to describe it.  Here's where McCann's key offensive numbers rank among his fellow catchers:

• .218 BA- Last among 12 qualified/26th out of 29 w/ at least 100 plate appearances
• .275 OBP- Last qualified/27th out of 29
• .370 SLG- Last/25th
• .286 wOBA- Last/26th
• 75 wRC+- Last/26th
• 0.5 fWAR- Last/24th
• 5.6% BB rate- 11th/22nd

The only thing keeping his offensive ship afloat is the 7 HR he's popped (tied for 2nd best among all catchers) and the 22 RBI that puts him comfortably in the top 10.  The only thing he's truly done well this season has been catch.  McCann is generating almost all his value from what he's doing behind the plate.  What he's doing at the plate only seems to be getting worse.

Yankees' Run Differential Starting To Tell A More Accurate Story

As we approach the quarter pole of the regular season, the Yankees have fallen back to .500 and the middle of the pack in the AL East.  They've lost 4 in a row and 9 of 13, leaving them with a 19-19 record and a -18 run differential that is 3rd worst in the AL behind the Astros and the Rangers.  A few weeks ago, when they were playing better baseball and winning, the negative run differential was downplayed because of the small sample size of games.  Now that the sample has grown, a split of those 38 games shows a disturbing trend:

First 19 Games: 11-8 Record, 75 Runs Scored/84 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Last 19 Games: 8-11 Record, 94 Runs Scored/103 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Based on that split, the Yankees have basically played the same brand of baseball since Opening Day.  They've scored more runs and given up more runs over the last 19 games, but it's basically been below-average baseball and that's reflected in the matching run differentials.  They outplayed their run differential in the first 19 games and won a few games more than they should have and they weren't able to do that over the last 19 games, which is why they are where they are with a .500 record.

If luck wasn't on their side in the first 19, we'd probably be looking at a 17-21 team that's perfectly in line with its Pythagorean-expected record.  Considering all the injuries that have happened in the last 19, that doesn't exactly bode well for the future.

Tuesday Morning Food For Though: One Man, Alone...

Mark Teixeira's Last 10 Games: 5 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 6 K

Carlos Beltran Brian McCann, & Alfonso Soriano's Last 10 Games Combined: 3 HR, 8 R, 9 RBI, 5 BB, 20 K

It's starting to become annoying to talk and write about, but there's really nothing coming from the middle of the Yankee batting order right now except for Teix.  I mean nothing.  Beltran is getting replaced in the lineup by Ichiro, McCann's OPS is 88th out of 98 qualifying AL hitters, and Soriano is swinging and missing at everything.  Joe tried to shake things up last night with Gardner at the top and Ellsbury hitting third and that didn't help.  The team has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 9 games.  Mark Teixeira is the only consistent offensive threat in the lineup and he isn't getting any help.  Mark Teixeira is one man, alone.  Betrayed by the lineup he loves...



P.S.- Yes, I just used a clip from a "Transformers" movie to punctuate a point about the New York Yankees' offense.  Next-level blogging right there.

The All-Or-Nothing Bullpen

After last night's 14-inning affair, the Yankee bullpen has a 4.11 ERA in 28 games.  In 92.0 total relief innings pitched, they've given up 42 earned runs.  By that measure, they fall in the lower half of MLB bullpens.  When you look at how those runs have been given up and by whom, however, the performance of the 'pen starts to look better.

In 13.2 combined IP, the group of Bruce Billings, Vidal Nuno, Chris Leroux, Matt Daley, Cesar Cabral, and Dean Anna have allowed 25 of the 42 ER.  By comparison, the group of David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, Adam Warren, Matt Thornton, and Dellin Betances have combined to give up 11 ER in 59.2 IP.  The core of the Yankee bullpen has been very, very good from day 1.  It's the back end that's been the weak link, something that shouldn't come as a shock considering David Phelps and Nuno have moved into the rotation.  That dynamic played out in textbook fashion last night, when the core group of relievers gave up 1 ER in 8 innings of work and Leroux gave up 5 in 1.

In short, the Yankees have a good enough bullpen to compete and succeed in the AL East.  They just need some help shoring up those last few spots so they don't get exposed in extra-inning games.

Thursday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Rotation Veterans Struh-guh-ling

Since last 8/17, 103 Ps have at least 60 IPs. Kuroda’s 6.07 ERA is the 3rd worst, Sabathia’s 5.16 is 7th #morethanablip? #Yankees
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 1, 2014

Saw this tweet from Joel Sherman and it made me do a double take.  I knew he faltered down the stretch last season, but I didn't realize Hirok's ERA was that bad going back that far.  If anything, I would have actually expected CC's to be the worse one and Hirok's to be in the low 5's.

A few weeks ago, this wouldn't have been a huge problem for the Yankees.  Everybody knew there was a chance that CC's major 2013 regression was the start of something permanent and that Hirok could finally be ticketed for some age-related regression of his own.  With 3 young guys there to pick them up and a solid bullpen, the Yanks should have been able to get by without their top 2 starters pitching like top 2 starters.

Now that Nova and Pineda are out, this is quickly becoming a pretty big deal.  Even though his peripherals suggest he's pitched better than his ERA, both CC and Hirok have ERAs over 5.00 in 11 combined starts.  That isn't going to cut it with Nuno and Phelps taking up the back 40% of the rotation.  Whatever's ailing them - command problems, bad luck, the dreaded bad inning - the Yanks need Hirok and CC to start turning things around and re-establish themselves as reliable, consistent presences in the rotation.

CC And His Battles With The One Bad Inning

(Courtesy of the AP)

CC Sabathia has made 6 starts in the month of April.  He's pitched 37 innings in those starts and given up 21 earned runs in those innings for a pretty bad 5.11 ERA.  As a whole, CC's performance has been subpar this year, but looking start by start it's been the 1 bad inning that's really killed him.

• 4/1- 6 IP, 6 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 1st), 4 ER
• 4/6- 6 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 6th), 3 ER
• 4/11- 7 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning top 6th), 4 ER
• 4/17- 7 IP, 1 ER; no bad innings
• 4/24- 6 IP, 2 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 3rd), 2 ER
• 4/29- 5 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning (top 5th), 4 ER

He's had 1 bad inning in 5 of his 6 starts and he's given up 17 of his 21 ER in those 5 innings (30.60 ERA).  In his other 32 IP, he's given up 4 ER (1.13 ERA).  On the one hand, this split shows that Sabathia's overall performance has not been as bad as his ERA would lead you to believe.  On the other, it shows how much CC is struggling to adjust to life as a finesse pitcher.  His bad innings have been defined by an inability to locate pitches down in the strike zone, an inability to put hitters away with 2 strikes, and an inability to finish off innings with 2 outs.  The Yankees need Carsten to be better with Nova and Pineda both on the shelf for the foreseeable future.  To be better, he needs to find a way to limit damage and eliminate the 1 bad inning every time out.

Strong Starts For Some Top Pitching Prospects

Luis Severino (Low-A): 4 GS, 14.0 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 19 K

Rafael DePaula (High-A): 3 GS, 14.1 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 19 K

Manny Banuelos (High-A): 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 12 K

I haven't talked too much about prospects since the season began, but the Yankees getting good starts from arguably their top 3 pitching prospects definitely bears mentioning.  A lot of people soured quickly on DePaula when he struggled in Tampa last year and I didn't think that was fair.  He's looked much better so far in his return trip.  Severino got started off slow with light workloads, but he had the reins taken out him last night and he responded with 5.2 shutout innings, 8 K, and 0 BB.  ManBan actually tossed 3 scoreless appearances before giving up all 4 of his ER in his last outing.  More important than his results are how good his stuff and command has looked and they've both looked very good.

With 2nd-tier guys like Nik Turley, Jose Ramirez, Jose Campos, and Ty Hensley yet to start their seasons for a variety of health/injury-related reasons, it's good to see the Yanks getting something positive from the cream of their pitching prospect crop.  Once the weather warms up some more, I expect we'll see ManBan start to get moved back up towards Triple-A.

The Talented Mr. Solarte

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

So Yangervis Solarte is really getting it done, huh?

- .373 batting average (2nd in AL)

- .444 wOBA (3rd in AL)

- 193 wRC+ (4th in AL)

- 19 hits (6th in AL)

- 7 doubles (2nd in AL)

The .429 BABIP is still unsustainably high, but there's reason to believe this is more than just Solarte getting lucky in a small sample size.  He's got a 10.3% BB rate and a 13.8% K rate, so he's displaying an understanding of the strike zone and some good contact skills.  He popped his first career home run last night too, and his .196 ISO is more than good enough to get it done in an everyday or bench role.  Eventually the BIP luck is going to turn and his numbers will go down.  For now though, he's fun to watch and he's giving the Yankees way more than they hoped for.  Strange to say, but he might be the most popular Yankee in town right now.

Basking In The Good Pitching Afterglow

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Quality of opponent being what it was, yesterday's doubleheader shutout was still a splendid performance by the Yankee pitching staff.  They got very good to outstanding outings from 2 25-year-old starters and some solid bullpen work from a bunch of mostly young and unheralded pitchers all working in higher-leverage roles thanks to the closer being on the DL.  It was a continuation of what has quickly been established as the norm for this group since the opening week of the season.  These guys can pitch, all of them, and they've been the driving force behind the Yankees' early success.

The Yanks open a weekend series tonight in Tampa with the 2nd best record in the American League, a place atop the AL East, and they've done it mainly on the back of their pitching staff while the new lineup continues to work out the kinks and find its way.  It's a very refreshing change of pace from where the rotation was early in the year last season, and I'd like to take a few moments to enjoy it.