Teix Staying Steady And Solid In The Middle Of The Order

Did you know that Mark Teixeira has a 10-game hitting streak?  I had no idea.  I thought he had been pretty consistent since coming back from his wrist stiffness, but I didn't think it had been 10-game hitting streak consistent.  After being the only offensive presence in yesterday's loss with a solo HR, his 12th of the year, Teix is now 11-37 in his last 10 with at least 1 hit in every game.  The power has been there (2 2B, 2 HR), the patience has been there (5 BB), and the production has been there (6 R, 8 RBI).

For the season, Teix is hitting .250/.365/.473 with a 13.7% BB rate, good for a team-leading .368 wOBA.  For all the games he's missed with a variety of ailments, and for all the uncertainty that comes with his health day-to-day and week-to-week, there's no denying that Teix has been rock solid and unexpectedly consistent in the games he has played.  While new guys like Beltran and McCann go days without a hit and then have 1 big game to carry the team, Teix has been the constant, the steadying force in the middle of the lineup.  Getting on base, driving in runs, providing the consistent power presence this team needs.  It's been the most underrated and undercovered story of the 2014 Yankee campaign.

Monday Morning Food For Thought: Solarte Really Slowing Down

I knew this was going to happen eventually.  We all did.  I was hoping it wouldn't happen right after I suggested he be moved up into the 2-spot, but a month later that seems to be the case.  Yangervis Solarte is coming back to reality as a hitter.  After coming back from his late-May slump with 9 hits in his next 6 games, he has really fallen off in June and created another hole in the batting order.

Solarte went 0-3 with a walk and  R scored last night.  The run was his first in a week, but the 0-fer made him 0-18 in his last 5 games.  That dropped him down to a .178/.260/.244 slash line in June and a .274/.347/.420 line for the season.  Solarte has been trending downward every month since Opening Day, from .an 865 OPS in April to an .809 in May.  The acceleration of that downtrend so far this month has been a dramatic one though, and it's creating more lineup and roster juggling confusion for Joe.  He already doesn't know what he's going to get or who he's going to be without day to day in his infield.  Now he can't even rely on the one constant he's had for the first 2 months.

So what's the diagnosis now?  Is this just another rough patch for Solarte or is this the sign of natural statistical regression to the mean settling in and his true Major League talent level coming to surface?

Inside Ellsbury's Hitting Streak

Jacoby Ellsbury went 1-4 last night, the 1 hit being the eventual game-winning one, and in the process extended his current hitting streak to 14 games.  To my knowledge, that's the longest hitting streak of the season for the Yankees and it's been a very reassuring stretch for Ellsbury after a lackluster month of May.  He's racked up 21 hits in 56 at-bats over the last 14 games (.375 BA), boosting his slash line back up to .286/.351/.406 from the season-low level of .258/.330/.379 before the start of the streak.  After looking like he had something wrong with his swing for all of last month, Ellsbury now looks like he's back to where he was at the start of the year and back to being the player the Yanks hoped they were getting.

Jeter Getting Beast Moded By Fastballs

It's been an ugly final season for The Captain to say the least.  While he has managed to stay almost completely healthy and on the field for the entirety, he's looked like an extremely weak and watered down version of the player he was as recently as 2 years ago.  Father Time has caught up to Derek Jeter in a big way and easiest way to see that is to look at how bad he's been against fastballs.  That's a topic that Mike Petriello of FanGraphs covered earlier today, and while I invite and encourage you to read the whole thing because it's great, the standout of the piece is this statement:

"In April, Jeter saw just 30.9 percent fastballs at or above 92. Since May 1, that’s jumped by 10 percent, and while there’s something to be said for the overall velocity of the sport tending to increase past April, the fact is simply this: Jeter can’t catch up to good fastballs any longer, and teams are increasingly taking advantage of it. It’s getting to the point than other than the occasional breaking ball just to keep him from timing it, you wonder why he’s ever not seeing fastballs."

There it is in a nutshell, folks.  The word is out that Jeter ain't what he used to be and pitchers are just dialing it up knowing that he can't do anything with it.  The signs have been there since April, when his solid start was almost entirely right field-focused, and they've been coming to the forefront ever since.  The Farewell Tour appears to be the priority for the Yankees over winning games, so whatever, maybe it's not that big a deal.  As long as that continues and Jeter stays in the 2-hole, the Yankee offense will continue to underperform because there's nothing to indicate he's going to turn this around.

Quick Hit: Big Mac And Little Jake Starting To Wake Up

Brian McCann Last 10 Games: 10-33, 4 2B, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K

Jacoby Ellsbury Last 10 Games: 16-40, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K, 6 SB

It hasn't been a great 10-game stretch for the Yankees in terms of team-wide production or W-L record, but their top 2 free agent position players are starting to come around after rough Mays.  McCann has slowly boosted his batting average above .230 for the season, although the consistent HR power stroke has yet to materialize, and Ellsbury has raised his back over .280 after dipping below .260 at the end of last month.  He has an 11-game hitting streak and was finally starting to be productive from the 3-spot before Joe moved back to leadoff for last night's game.

I need more than a good 10-game stretch to convince me that these 2 are getting back to offensive homeostasis, but there are good signs in what each has been doing at the plate.  Normal productive months from them paired with the returns of Teix and Beltran should bring some respectability back to the lineup.

More On Soriano's Slump

On Tuesday, I took a painful look at Alfonso Soriano and his middling production this season.  He's been a major drain on the middle of the order and even more un-productive than Brian McCann, and it looked like it was attributable to nothing more than him being old and losing bat speed.  On that same day, Matt Bove of IIATMS/TYA also pointed out Soriano's drastic decline in power and spike in strikeouts, which inspired me to dig a little deeper.  Turns out Soriano has a major platoon split this season.  He's got an .805 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .563 against lefties, with more walks and strikeouts against southpaws.

Knowing that Soriano has been getting beaten badly by the fastball this season, is it possible that Soriano is getting a little of the Derek Jeter treatment and being pitched to in a way by righties that exploits his apparent loss of bat speed?

Solate Is So-lumping Again

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It was a tough night for Yangervis Solarte at the dish last night.  Hitting in the 5-spot behind Brian McCann, he went 0-4 (0-3 with RISP), banged into a rally-killing double play, and left 5 men on base.  He only saw 9 pitches in his 4 plate appearances, extending a little mini-slump he's stuck in to 6 games.  In his last 6 games, Solarte is just 2-23 with 1 R, RBI, and BB apiece.  His batting average has slipped to .285, and combined with the nagging injuries to Beltran's elbow and Teix's wrist, Solarte has helped expose the paper thin middle of the batting order.  Needless to say, he's no longer the ideal option for the #2 spot.

Jacoby's Rotten Month Of May

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It's been the best of times and the worst of times for Jacoby Ellsbury in his first 2 months as a New York Yankee.  In April, he hit .312/.369/.452 in 103 plate appearances divided between the leadoff and #3 lineup spots, played a solid center field, and made a very good first impression on Yankee fans.  He was among the team and American League leaders in hits (29), runs scored (14), and stolen bases (8).

May has been far less kind to Ellsbury.  His production has dropped off dramatically, he's been a negative fWAR player, and the whispers about the Yankees overpaying have started popping up as they usually do when a player signs the kind of contract Jacoby did to come to new York.  After last night's 0-fer, Ellsbury's May slash line is down to .206/.315/.302.  He's scored 1 run in his last 5 games, has 1 hit in his last 7, 1 stolen base in his last 14, and 1 RBI in his last 15.  His season tripleslash is down to .269/.347/.391, good for a .325 wOBA and 102 wRC+.  What the hell happened to cause him to fall off this badly?

Gardner Thriving In The Leadoff Spot

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees brought Jacoby Ellsbury in to be their leadoff hitter.  They knew that, he knew that, and Brett Gardner knew that.  With Ellsbury hitting first and Derek Jeter holding down the #2 spot based more on reputation and tribute rather than merit, Gardner was left without a clearly defined role or spot in the batting order heading into the season.  Best suited to hit in the 1 or 2 spot, Gardner was relegated to the bottom third of the order as a pseudo-sorta second leadoff hitter.

Carlos Beltran Has To Be Hurt, Right?

(Not good.  Screen cap courtesy of MLB.com)

Carlos Beltran woke up this morning with the unfortunate distinction of being one of 2 negative WAR everyday players in the Yankee lineup (Soriano is the other).  After a blistering start to his season in which he generated most of the power production from the middle of the batting order, Beltran has been slumping badly for the last 2 weeks and has seen his batting line slip to .240/.292/.440.  While my analysis last Monday showed there were shifts in BIP distribution and most likely approach that were causing the slump, there may be an even simpler explanation for Beltran's troubling decline.

Tuesday Morning Food For Though: One Man, Alone...

Mark Teixeira's Last 10 Games: 5 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 6 K

Carlos Beltran Brian McCann, & Alfonso Soriano's Last 10 Games Combined: 3 HR, 8 R, 9 RBI, 5 BB, 20 K

It's starting to become annoying to talk and write about, but there's really nothing coming from the middle of the Yankee batting order right now except for Teix.  I mean nothing.  Beltran is getting replaced in the lineup by Ichiro, McCann's OPS is 88th out of 98 qualifying AL hitters, and Soriano is swinging and missing at everything.  Joe tried to shake things up last night with Gardner at the top and Ellsbury hitting third and that didn't help.  The team has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 9 games.  Mark Teixeira is the only consistent offensive threat in the lineup and he isn't getting any help.  Mark Teixeira is one man, alone.  Betrayed by the lineup he loves...



P.S.- Yes, I just used a clip from a "Transformers" movie to punctuate a point about the New York Yankees' offense.  Next-level blogging right there.

Is Carlos Beltran Slumping Or Not?

The recent dearth of offense from the revamped lineup has been driven primarily by the lack of production from the middle of the lineup.  Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Alfonso Soriano have been swinging cold bats for the better part of the last 2 weeks, and there simply hasn't been enough production from the other 6 spots in the batting order to make up for that.  McCann and Soriano have never really found their stride since Opening Day, even with a few big power days mixed in, but Beltran was arguably the best hitter in the lineup for the first few weeks.  He's cooled down to the point of being frigid at the plate, and with him being older and having a history of leg problems, I thought it was worth investigating the legitimacy of his downtrend in production similar to how I looked at Derek Jeter over the weekend.

McCann Heating Up As He Adjusts To The Shift

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It isn't drawing the attention of Yangervis Solarte's hot start or Carlos Beltran's splendid all-around hitting performance, but Brian McCann has been coming around lately and his stat line is starting to creep up above the line of respectability.  After last night, he's now sitting at .261/.292/.420 with 3 HR, 10 R, and 9 RBI, good for a .314 wOBA.  His early bout with selectivity issues appears to over, his swing rates are trending down, and he's starting to settle into his new AL surroundings.

Another thing he's settling into is being a constant target of the defensive shift.  McCann has been one of, if not the most shifted against hitter in the Yankee lineup and it's fair to suggest that he's lost out on a hit or 2 as a result of it.  Seeing how opposing defenses are approaching him, McCann appears to be adapting his hitting approach in response.

Yanks Running Wild To Make Up For Early Lack Of Power

It took about 5 and a half games for the Yankees to hit their first home run of the 2014 season.  Naturally, that home run came from Brett Gardner yesterday and not one of the power hitters in the middle of the lineup.  For the most part, those players have gotten off to slow starts at the dish and it's guys like Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Yangervis Solarte who have carried the offensive load in their place.

The lone HR puts the Yankees 29th in MLB in that department, ahead of only the Royals, the last homer-less team in baseball.  While that level of power production won't cut it long-term and there's no reason to expect that it will continue on this slow path, the impact of the outage has been lessened somewhat by what the Yanks have done on the basepaths.  Their 8 stolen bases ties them for the most in MLB with the Dodgers, a position that's very unfamiliar for the traditionally powerful and patient Yankee offense.  Gardner and Brian Roberts each have 2, Ellsbury has 3, and as a team the Yankees have yet to be caught stealing once.

The expectation was that the addition of Ellsbury and Roberts would add more speed and balance to the lineup and so far that's exactly what has happened.  Once the middle of the order starts picking up their end, the offense could be good enough to get by even without Teix.

Soriano's Early Results Show Signs Of Lingering Spring Training Rust

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

That's Alfonso Soriano's swing plot through the first 2 games of the season.  As you can see, it's all over the place.  Soriano has seen 36 pitches in his 8 plate appearances and he's swung at 19 of them.  Of those 19 swings, he's swung and missed 8 times and put the ball in play 4.  None of those balls in play have gone for hits and the other half of his 8 PA have ended in strikeouts.  Needless to say, that's not the production you're looking for from a player in a run-producing spot of the lineup.

Soriano missed a fair amount of time early in Spring Training because of his bout with the flu and the time needed to catch back up limited the number of in-game ABs he got.  That swing plot above is indicative of a hitter who's not seeing the ball well and doesn't have his timing at the plate and that's almost certainly a direct result of that early missed time.  Soriano is expanding his strike zone all over the place and taking a lot of bad swings at bad pitches to hit, but there's no reason to panic based on 8 PA.  As he gets more reps, gets more comfortable at the plate, and gets his timing back, this issue should correct itself.  If the rest of the lineup had hit over the first 2 games, Soriano's struggles wouldn't stick out as much as they do.

Monday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Something To Like About Beltran

As with Ellsbury, I'm not fully on board with the Carlos Beltran signing yet.  I was against him at the start of the offseason when there were better, younger options available, less against him once the offseason started, and OK with signing him once Robinson Cano left for Seattle.  I hate the 3rd year of the deal, but I understand it as doing what it took to get a player who could help replace Cano's lost left-handed power.

And when it comes to replacing that lost power, Beltran should do just fine.  The spray chart below shows his BIP distribution from the left side of the plate last year.  You'll notice that the bulk of his power production comes from the left side of the plate and there are a fair amount of balls on the warning track that would have made it out of the short porch in Yankee Stadium.

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers.  Click to embiggen)

Beltran hit .315/.362/.509 as a lefty in 2013 (.377 wOBA).  That slash jumps to .417/.408/.813 when he pulled the ball from the left side of the plate, including 15 of his 24 home runs.  He may be a wild card in terms of his health and age-related regression, but when it comes to producing from the left side, Beltran should be a more than adequate replacement for Cano in the 3rd spot of the batting order.

Monday Morning Food For Thought

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Robinson Cano vs. LHP 2010: .369 wOBA, 13 HR, 13.0% K rate
Cano vs. LHP 2011: .375 wOBA, 8 HR, 13.9% K rate
Cano vs. LHP 2012: .290 wOBA, 6 HR, 17.5% K rate
Cano vs. LHP 2013: .343 wOBA, 7 HR, 16.5% K rate

2012 was brutal, 2013 was a nice bounce back but still not up to his usual standards.  What do those last 2 years say about Robbie's production against southpaws moving forward?

C-Grand Slump Comes At The Worst Time (For Everybody)

(Courtesy of the AP)

As bad as the weekend series against Boston went for the Yankees, there's something to be said for them putting up 29 runs in the 4 games.  It wasn't for lack of offense that they lost 3 of the 4 games, and guys like Robbie Cano, Brett Gardner, Alfonso Soriano, Lyle Overbay, and even Ichiro all had various levels of productive weekends at the dish.

One guy who didn't was Curtis Granderson, who's seen his production slow since first coming off the DL last month.  Joe sat him for Friday night's game and didn't even use him in a late pinch hitting role, and in the 3 games he did play C-Grand went 1-13 at the plate with a double and 5 strikeouts.

Gardner Swinging A Mean Bat Again

(Courtesy of the AP)

Maybe that extra rest Joe has been giving Brett Gardner, when he's been perfectly healthy and when he maybe hasn't, is starting to pay off.  After being below average for the better part of the last 2 months, Gardner has turned it back on in the last week plus.  He's 12-38 in his last 10 games (.316 BA) with 7 XBH, 8 R, 4 BB, and 4 RBI.  7 of those 12 hits have gone for extra bases (6 2B, 1 3B) and Gardner has 2 hits in 4 of his last 5 games, so the pop is definitely back in his bat.  Throw in 1 HBP and that's 17 times on base for Brett in 10 games.  That's good leadoff hitting.

The Yankees' turnaround in late August was due primarily to the return of the power to the middle of their lineup.  With Cano hitting like he was and Alfonso Soriano leading the AL in home runs, it was easy to overlook Gardner's offensive inconsistency at the top.  Whether he was or still is hurt or not, Joe recognized that something was amiss with Gardner, got him a few extra days off, and it appears to have done the trick.  With Gardner raking again in the leadoff spot, some of the pressure comes off the middle of the lineup to keep up their pace, which has slowed in the last week, and the team becomes more dynamic and flexible offensively.

Seriously, When Is Austin Romine Going To Get The Starting Catcher Job?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It's been a little over a month since I pointed out the turnaround in Austin Romine's offensive game.  He started putting things together at the plate in July and finished with a stellar .333/.385/.500 batting line (.385 wOBA) in 26 plate appearances.  That performance has earned him a little more playing time in August - 37 PA in 10 games - and he hasn't missed a beat production-wise, hitting .310/.417/.448 (.381 wOBA) this month.  What's strange is that the dramatic increase in production at the plate has not earned Romine the same dramatic increase in PT.  The bulk of the work is still going to Chris Stewart, even as the trends for he and Romine are moving in completely different directions.