Lindgren Starts Climbing The Ladder

It's been over a month since he was drafted and about 3 weeks since he made his pro debut, but Jacob Lindgren is already starting to show why the Yankees were so high on him in making him their first pick of the 2014 draft.  He made his High-A debut last night and did so by striking out the side in a perfect inning.  For the season he's now pitched 7 innings across 3 different levels (GCL, Low-A, High-A), and he's given up 1 ER with 0 walks and 16 strikeouts in those 7 innings.

His stuff was considered MLB-ready by most scouts at the draft and it was universally agreed upon that he was MLB-ready as a lefty specialist the minute he was drafted.  The early small sample size results are exactly what you'd expect from a college reliever with that kind of profile.  Lindgren has been efficient and dominant against lower-level MiL hitters and I don't expect him to stay in Tampa for very long.  It will be fun watching him for the next 2 months to see how aggressive the Yankees get with him and whether he works his way up to a September call up.

Tuesday Morning Food For Thought: Heavy Workload Starting To Take Its Toll?

Tough go for Adam Warren and Dellin Betances last night.  They combined for 2 IP, 1 H, 4 BB, and only 1 strikeout from the top of the 6th to the top of the 8th.  Each of them failed to finish off the innings they started cleanly after getting 2 outs, and overall they allowed 5 of the 11 batters they faced to reach base.  Workload has been a big concern for these 2 for a while now, and in late June the signs of that heavy workload catching up to them started to show:

Warren May- 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 4 BB, 17 K
Warren June- 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 5 BB, 12 K

Betances May- 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 FIP, 2 BB, 28 K
Betances June- 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.60 FIP, 7 BB, 25 K

The splits aren't as drastic with Betances, but both he and Warren took a statistical step back in June from the complete and utter dominance they displayed in May.  There is the normalization factor to consider here as a grain of salt.  There was no way they were going to keep up May's level of performance for the rest of the season no matter what their workload was.  Joe's decision to be more judicious with how he uses them coupled with the change in eye test, however, suggests this is more than just a natural statistical regression.  Both guys have had to labor more in their recent appearances and their command has not been as spot on as it was earlier.  Their performance for the first few weeks of July is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Quick Hit: Big Mac And Little Jake Starting To Wake Up

Brian McCann Last 10 Games: 10-33, 4 2B, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K

Jacoby Ellsbury Last 10 Games: 16-40, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K, 6 SB

It hasn't been a great 10-game stretch for the Yankees in terms of team-wide production or W-L record, but their top 2 free agent position players are starting to come around after rough Mays.  McCann has slowly boosted his batting average above .230 for the season, although the consistent HR power stroke has yet to materialize, and Ellsbury has raised his back over .280 after dipping below .260 at the end of last month.  He has an 11-game hitting streak and was finally starting to be productive from the 3-spot before Joe moved back to leadoff for last night's game.

I need more than a good 10-game stretch to convince me that these 2 are getting back to offensive homeostasis, but there are good signs in what each has been doing at the plate.  Normal productive months from them paired with the returns of Teix and Beltran should bring some respectability back to the lineup.

Bottom Of The Order Coming Up Big Lately

(I'm actually going to say something positive about Ichiro.  Believe it.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Consistent offensive production continues to be a big problem for the Yankees as May winds down.  Carlos Beltran is on the DL, Teix may or may not have to join him because of his wrist stiffness, and Brian McCann and Alfonso Soriano have been unable to find their footing to carry the middle of the order.  Despite all of this, the Yankees have won 4 of their last 6 games and 8 of their last 12 over the last 2 weeks.  It's been the bottom of the order and the rotating cast of characters inhabiting it that have had a lot to do with that.

Mark, Your Defense. Woof!

Is it strange to anybody else to know that Mark Teixeira leads the team in errors?  I hadn't noticed that, which is equally strange because I had noticed that Teix had made a few errors and had not been his usual reliable, stabilizing presence over at first base since returning from the DL.  I was counting on his return to help solve some of the infield defense problems.  Instead, he's contributed to them.

Matt Thornton: Ineffective Or Unlucky?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There have been plenty of problems in the Yankee bullpen in the first 6 weeks.  One that isn't getting a lot of attention is the performance of Matt Thornton.  Brought in as the lone free agent reliever to replace Boone Logan, Thornton didn't inspire confidence that he had a lot left with his ST effort (7 H, 3 ER, 2 K in 4.0 IP), and so far in the regular season he's been pretty meh.  In 6.2 innings pitched spread over 16 appearances, Thornton owns a 5.40/3.85/5.02 tripleslash with only 5 strikeouts and 3 walks.  He's been perfectly mediocre despite mostly being used correctly in short outings by Joe, but has it really been all his fault?

How Much Did Derek Jeter Need That Day Off Yesterday?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Heading into last weekend, Derek Jeter owned a .294/.385/.338 slash line.  The power had not been there at all, but his high average and OBP made him a useful piece at the top of the order and were positive signs that he had his legs back under him.

Since that weekend, things have started to trend in the wrong direction.  In Jeter's last 5 games played, he's gone just 3-24 with 0 BB and 7 K, including his first career 0-7 game on Friday night.  His batting line is down to .250/.324/.283 and Joe elected to give him a day off yesterday.  Has Jeter been a bit overworked in the first month of the season?  The statistical signs that he may be tiring have been prevalent in his recent performance.  The lack of walks, the increased K rate, and the complete disappearance of power in his game.  Jeter hasn't had an XBH since April 17th.  So is it time to start being concerned about The Captain?

Mixed Results From Teix In His First Week Back

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The defining image of last night's game was not Masahiro Tanaka walking off the mound after 1 of his 11 strikeouts.  As well as he battled to keep his team in the game against Garrett Richards, the most memorable moment last night was Mark Teixeira turning on a 94 MPH Richards fastball that was belt high and on the inner half of the plate, hitting it high and deep into right field, and pausing for a second to watch it land in the second deck.  I'm talking that "no doubt about it" split second of pimpage that Teix does when he really knows he got one.  I'm talking about this:

(Courtesy of ESPN/MLB.com)

McCann Heating Up As He Adjusts To The Shift

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It isn't drawing the attention of Yangervis Solarte's hot start or Carlos Beltran's splendid all-around hitting performance, but Brian McCann has been coming around lately and his stat line is starting to creep up above the line of respectability.  After last night, he's now sitting at .261/.292/.420 with 3 HR, 10 R, and 9 RBI, good for a .314 wOBA.  His early bout with selectivity issues appears to over, his swing rates are trending down, and he's starting to settle into his new AL surroundings.

Another thing he's settling into is being a constant target of the defensive shift.  McCann has been one of, if not the most shifted against hitter in the Yankee lineup and it's fair to suggest that he's lost out on a hit or 2 as a result of it.  Seeing how opposing defenses are approaching him, McCann appears to be adapting his hitting approach in response.

Ichiro Adjusting Well To New Lesser Role

Everybody knows I'm not an Ichiro guy.  I haven't wanted him around since the minute the Yankees re-signed him.  But even I have to admit that he's been an unexpectedly positive surprise early on this year.  After this weekend's split in Tampa, Ichiro is hitting .355/.355/.387 in 31 PA with 5 R scored and 1 stolen base.  He's played in 15 games, split almost evenly between starting outfielder and late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner.  Considering the inconsistency of his hitting opportunities, that .355 batting average is impressive, as are the 4 multi-hit games.

This performance does warrant a hefty SSS disclaimer.  Ichiro has yet to draw a walk this year and has a healthy 22.6% K rate.  His BABIP is also an incredibly high .458, and with his early spike in groundball contact (career high 73.9% GB rate), you can be sure that average is living higher thanks to some seeing eye balls through infield holes.  But you'll take that when you can get it from your 5th outfielder.  In Ichiro's case, you'll definitely take it when it comes with above-average baserunning and outfield defense that is still world class.  It may not be what he wants, but Ichiro is fitting into his new role nicely.

Examining Derek Jeter's Early Contact Trends

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

For all the concern about how he'd be physically this year coming into spring camp, concern that I admittedly shared, it was a pretty quiet Spring Training for Derek Jeter.  He was on his own schedule, he got into games early enough, he never reported any problems with his ankle or legs, never had any issues really.  He worked at his pace, felt good, and was ready to play when the regular season started.  What was a small concern was how quiet his bat was in ST.  Jeter hit .137/.214/.157 in 51 spring at-bats, striking out 10 times and hitting a ton of groundballs.

Regular season production is what really matters and Jeter's was going to be watched closely regardless of how he hit in the spring simply because he was a shortstop turning 40 and coming off a season lost to injuries.  He's played in 9 of the Yankees' first 10 games and so far that production has been pretty good.  Jeter wakes up today with a .290/.389/.355 slash line, 3 runs scored, 2 doubles, 4 walks, and a .342 wOBA.  After a weak-hitting spring camp, Jeter appears to have found his timing and his early contact rates are encouraging.

McCann's Slow Start Could Be Due To Lack Of Selectivity

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Despite spending more than a few bucks to upgrade the offense this past offseason, the Yankees have been slow to see any fruit from their free agent labor.  They've scored 29 runs in their first 8 games, good for 18th in MLB, and their 3 HR are still just enough to keep them out of the basement in that category and tied for 29th.  The biggest reason for this sputtering offensive start is the lack of production from the middle of the order.  Mark Teixeira hit the DL before he even got going, Alfonso Soriano is just now starting to find his stroke after a rusty start, and both Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann are sporting sub-.500 OPS values in 60 combined plate appearances.

Obviously there's going to be improvement from all 4 of these guys as the season progresses, everybody gets settled in, and Teix gets healthy again.  But in looking at McCann's rough start, the roughest of all at .172/.200/.172, there could be a pretty simple explanation and an easy fix.

Adam Warren, Shutdown Reliever

Gas face... Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I guess that's what we get for being on the right side of the injury luck coin in Spring Training, huh?  After making it through March almost completely unscathed, the Yankees have now lost 2 key players as a result of last weekend's series in Toronto.  On Friday night, it was Mark Teixeira straining his hamstring and heading to the 15-day DL.  On Sunday night, David Robertson joined him when he strained his groin.  The team officially announced his DL trip yesterday afternoon, creating more stir in an already very new and unsettled bullpen and giving the Yanks another early-season obstacle to overcome.

What Is Up With David Phelps?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

When Joe made his selections for the Opening Day roster, I expected nothing but good things for David Phelps.  Even though he didn't beat out Michael Pineda for the final rotation spot, he entered the season as one of the more experienced pitchers in the bullpen.  With all the changes in that group and the middle relief hierarchy in front of D-Rob unsettled, I thought this was going to be the year that Phelps established himself as a key part of the bullpen going forward.

Pineda's First Start Highlights The Need To Develop His Changeup

(Courtesy of the AP)

For reasons related to my post-UConn victory celebration last night, I was unable to recap yesterday's game.  The game marked the second straight Yankee debut for a highly-touted young pitcher, only this time it was a player coming back from injury rather than pitching in his first MLB game.  Michael Pineda was outstanding yesterday, allowing a single run in 6 innings of work, walking nobody, and striking out 5.  He threw 83 pitches, 58 for strikes, and his stuff looked very good.  His fastball was lively and averaged 94 MPH and his slider was very sharp, drawing 7 swings and misses.  He even mixed some cutters in.

If there's one negative to take away from Pineda's start yesterday, it was the lack of changeup usage and the problems it caused him against left-handed hitters.  He faced lefty swingers 12 times and they were responsible for 4 of the 5 hits he gave up, including 2 hard-hit doubles and an RBI single.  The development of Pineda's changeup was supposed to be what helped him against lefties, but there wasn't much sign of it yesterday.  He only threw a change once.

We had heard that Pineda was working on his changeup during his MiL rehab starts and bullpen sessions last year, and I thought I read somewhere that it looked better early in spring camp.  If yesterday's start was any indication, however, he still has a long way to go to make it a useful pitch for himself.  Hopefully he starts to work it in more and gets more comfortable with it.  He's going to need it to keep lefty hitters honest.

Soriano's Early Results Show Signs Of Lingering Spring Training Rust

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

That's Alfonso Soriano's swing plot through the first 2 games of the season.  As you can see, it's all over the place.  Soriano has seen 36 pitches in his 8 plate appearances and he's swung at 19 of them.  Of those 19 swings, he's swung and missed 8 times and put the ball in play 4.  None of those balls in play have gone for hits and the other half of his 8 PA have ended in strikeouts.  Needless to say, that's not the production you're looking for from a player in a run-producing spot of the lineup.

Soriano missed a fair amount of time early in Spring Training because of his bout with the flu and the time needed to catch back up limited the number of in-game ABs he got.  That swing plot above is indicative of a hitter who's not seeing the ball well and doesn't have his timing at the plate and that's almost certainly a direct result of that early missed time.  Soriano is expanding his strike zone all over the place and taking a lot of bad swings at bad pitches to hit, but there's no reason to panic based on 8 PA.  As he gets more reps, gets more comfortable at the plate, and gets his timing back, this issue should correct itself.  If the rest of the lineup had hit over the first 2 games, Soriano's struggles wouldn't stick out as much as they do.

Wednesday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Jeter's Start

(Courtesy of the AP)

The Good News- Derek Jeter has played in 4 of the last 6 Yankee ST games and done so without any physical issues.  He's looked good running the bases, he's looked as good as a 40-year-old shortstop with severely limited range can look in the field, and he just played in his first back-to-back games of the spring on Monday and Tuesday with 3+ weeks remaining before Opening Day.

The Bad News- He's 0-9 with 1 BB, 1 K, and 3 GIDPs in those 4 games.

It's still early enough in camp to give this time, but there hasn't been a lot of lift or life in most of the balls Jeter has put in play, something that raises questions about his ability to adequately handle hitting in the 2-spot.  His legs being healthy enough to play is one thing.  Them being healthy enough for him to drive the ball and be an above-average hitter are another.  This is definitely something worth watching over the next week or so to see if the results start to come.

Monday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Fast Start For McCann

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

3 G, 5 AB, .600/.714/1.400, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB

That's Brian McCann's stat line through his first handful of Spring Training games.  Needless to say, he's been everything he was advertised to be and already looks like the next in line to step up and assume the on-field and in-clubhouse leadership role once Derek Jeter retires after the season.

Yes, ST stats are basically meaningless when it comes to veteran players like McCann and I'm certainly not trying to imply that this 7-PA sample size is indicative of what type of production we should expect once April 1st comes around.  But it's incredibly refreshing to see big production coming from the catcher position after what the Yankees went through there last year.  They brought McCann in to be one of the new anchors of the club and he's getting off to a great start in that regard.  He's crushing at the plate, he's looked good behind the plate, he's quickly building a strong rapport with the pitching staff, and he's erasing last season's memories of TCS.

Tuesday Morning Food For Thought: Kelly Johnson, Third Baseman

16 games, 118.0 innings.

That's all the experience Kelly Johnson has at third base.  And all of it came last year with the Rays.  Maybe I'm just dumb, but I didn't realize that was all he had at third.  I assumed he had spent a little more time there throughout his career.  Turns out he hasn't, and now that it sounds like he's going to be the mostly everyday starter there in place of A-Rod, the Yankees want him to spend more time this spring getting used to the position.

For what it's worth, Johnson registered 1 defensive run saved and a 24.4 UZR/150 in his 118 innings at the hot corner last year.  Based on that small sample size, he seems capable of handling the job.  As is the case with other players and other roles this season, we won't truly know if he is until we see him do it every day.

Monday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Who Is The Real Preston Claiborne?

Preston Claiborne's first 2 months as a Major Leaguer in 2013:

24.2 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 20 K

Preston Claiborne's last 2 months of the season in 2013:

15.1 IP, 23 H, 15 ER, 7 BB, 14 K

If you've got your calculators handy, that's a 1.46 ERA/3.12 FIP split from May and June compared to an 8.80/6.98 split in August and September.  Claiborne was due to regress after his unsustainably hot start last year, and regress he did, but I don't think anybody anticipated his finish to the season being as disastrous as it was.  He's the de facto "7th Inning Guy" right now and the question is what type of pitcher will he be in that role?  While a repeat of either one of those extremes is unlikely, where his 2014 performance falls in the middle of them is a big unknown.  Something shaded closer to the bad side of the extreme might not be good enough for a regular middle relief role.