Tuesday Morning Food For Thought: Heavy Workload Starting To Take Its Toll?

Tough go for Adam Warren and Dellin Betances last night.  They combined for 2 IP, 1 H, 4 BB, and only 1 strikeout from the top of the 6th to the top of the 8th.  Each of them failed to finish off the innings they started cleanly after getting 2 outs, and overall they allowed 5 of the 11 batters they faced to reach base.  Workload has been a big concern for these 2 for a while now, and in late June the signs of that heavy workload catching up to them started to show:

Warren May- 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 4 BB, 17 K
Warren June- 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 5 BB, 12 K

Betances May- 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 FIP, 2 BB, 28 K
Betances June- 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.60 FIP, 7 BB, 25 K

The splits aren't as drastic with Betances, but both he and Warren took a statistical step back in June from the complete and utter dominance they displayed in May.  There is the normalization factor to consider here as a grain of salt.  There was no way they were going to keep up May's level of performance for the rest of the season no matter what their workload was.  Joe's decision to be more judicious with how he uses them coupled with the change in eye test, however, suggests this is more than just a natural statistical regression.  Both guys have had to labor more in their recent appearances and their command has not been as spot on as it was earlier.  Their performance for the first few weeks of July is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Contemplating Adam Warren In The Rotation

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

A popular topic of conversation right now in Yankeeland is Vidal Nuno's spot in the rotation and whether or not he deserves to keep it.  He did little to help his cause last Saturday when he gave up 3 home runs in a loss to Baltimore, his 11th, 12th, and 13th in 12 starts, and I think Joe would like to remove him if he could.  Unfortunately for him, the organizational starting depth being stretched thin by injuries has left the Yankees without a suitable replacement sitting front and center.

One name that's been talked about a lot as a possibility is Adam Warren.  The former starting pitching prospect has settled nicely into a middle relief and occasional setup role this season after being given a token spot in the Spring Training 5th starter competition.  Warren made the transition from starter to reliever almost full-time last year when he earned himself a bullpen spot out of spring camp, and while he hasn't worked as a starter since 2012 it's reasonable to think he could be at least a slight improvement over Nuno.  The question of swapping Nuno for Warren has been brought up to Joe plenty in the last week and he's admitted that it's something he's considering.  The real question is whether it's the right move to make.

Are Warren And Betances Being Overworked?

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(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees split yesterday's doubleheader against the Pirates in part because they were working with an undermanned bullpen all day.  Joe declared Dellin Betances unavailable before the first game after pitching him for 2+ innings on Thursday and Saturday and 3 times in the last 7 days, and Adam Warren became unavailable after the first game when Joe went to him in the 8th for the 3rd time in 4 days and watched him give up 3 hits and record only 2 outs.

D-Rob finished up that game with his second straight 4-out save, so he may not have been available for the second game either.  What was certain was that his current top 2 setup men were definitely not available and their shoddy replacements got beat for 2 late runs that sealed the Yankees' fate.  Betances and Warren are still pretty new to the higher-leverage relief gig thing, but it's not a stretch to say they're light years better than the Alfredos Aceves and Prestons Claiborne of the world.  Joe's recognized that pretty quickly and has leaned heavily on Warren and Betances through the first quarter of the season to overcome the injuries to D-Rob and Shawn Kelley.  Perhaps too heavily?

Adam Warren, Shutdown Reliever

Gas face... Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I guess that's what we get for being on the right side of the injury luck coin in Spring Training, huh?  After making it through March almost completely unscathed, the Yankees have now lost 2 key players as a result of last weekend's series in Toronto.  On Friday night, it was Mark Teixeira straining his hamstring and heading to the 15-day DL.  On Sunday night, David Robertson joined him when he strained his groin.  The team officially announced his DL trip yesterday afternoon, creating more stir in an already very new and unsettled bullpen and giving the Yanks another early-season obstacle to overcome.

Wednesday Afternoon Food For Thought

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Adam Warren had himself a pretty good rookie season in 2013.  Just like his clone David Phelps in 2012, he gave the Yankees more than they were anticipating having to get from him, filled a variety of different roles when situations called for them, and had moments of success in each of those roles.  He'll be a more important piece of the pitching staff equation next year, but in what capacity?  Is he a viable starting candidate?  Is he best staying in the flexible long relief role?  Or could he become an effective 1-inning reliever?  Here's a quick statistical breakdown of how Warren fared in different situations this year:

- 1 IP < : 10 G, 8 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 2 K

- 1+ IP-3 IP: 17 G, 37 IP, 50 H, 22 ER, 7 HR, 17 BB, 39 K

- 3+ IP: 7 G, 32 IP, 24 H, 5 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 23 K

Hard to draw anything conclusive from those sample sizes, but Warren did have most of his success pitching in longer appearances or shorter appearances.  That middle ground is where he really took a beating, although it's also where he racked up most of his strikeouts.  With Phelps and Pineda back in the mix next year, and presumably a free agent starter or 2 added as well, it will be interesting to see how the Yankees decide they can best utilize Warren.

AB4AR's 2013 Yankees End-Of-Season Awards

I'd like to come up with another intro recapping the ups and downs of the season, but honestly, we all know how it went and we don't need to be reminded of it again.  Let's just cut to the chase.  After the jump, AB4AR is proud to present its winners of the 2013 seasonal awards.

An Audition Of Sorts For Warren Tonight

Yesterday's doubleheader threw a little hiccup into the Yankees' current rotation order.  To combat that and give the older Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda enough rest between starts, Adam Warren will start tonight's game.  The rookie has worked exclusively out of the bullpen this season and has been on the wrong side of the performance curve since June, yet that did not dissuade the Yankees from keeping him on the active roster and available to make this spot start.

There won't be too much weight put into 1 spot start, especially when it's coming almost a month after Warren's last appearance in which he threw more than 60 pitches.  But Warren can start to lay down the groundwork for his 2014 rotation competition with a good outing tonight.  His only other career Major League start is last year's 2.1-inning disaster in Chicago, a memory I'm sure Warren would like to erase and get himself a fresh start as a starting pitching prospect.  There's plenty of opportunity for him to earn a spot at the back of the rotation next spring, and this is his best chance to get a head start on the competition.

Adam Warren's Descent Back To The Mean

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(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Like David Phelps and Ivan Nova before him, Adam Warren stepped up to grab an opportunity that injuries presented in Spring Training.  He pitched well, got noticed by the coaches, and stepped into Phelps' vacated long man bullpen role when Phelps got bumped to the rotation.  Warren, always regarded as a consistently good but never great prospect in the Minors, projected to be a 4th-5th starter at best at the Major League level and his best chance to work his way onto the roster was probably through the bullpen.  Warren continued his impressive spring through the first couple months of the season, coming up with a couple big outings and displaying solid stuff.  Since the calendar flipped to summer, however, the going has gotten tough for Warren and the regression has brought him back down to just average.

Give A Call To Adam Warren

(Might need to work on that high five form a bit.  Courtesy of the AP)

It's only 7 appearances, and there's some slight suggestion of BABIP and SSS luck working in his favor, but it would be wrong to not point out the great job Adam Warren has done so far this season.  After having a relatively stagnant year in 2012 in his second Triple-A season, Warren has blossomed and carved out a nice role for himself in the Major League bullpen this season.  His early career path has been very similar to the one David Phelps used to break into the show last year.

Like Phelps, Warren has shown an ability to be flexible in his relief roles and effective in multiple types of scenarios.  He's been good in short appearances and he's been very good in long appearances, like his first of the year coming in for Hiroki or his 4-inning save last night.  Like Phelps, his stuff has also played up a bit coming out of the 'pen, particularly his fastball velocity.  That has bumped his K rate up (7.23 K/9, 20.3% overall), and Warren's willingness to use all his pitches gives him options with 2 strikes.  He's basically the #1 long man with Phelps in the rotation right now, and he's pitched well enough to keep his spot on the roster when a pitcher gets sent down for C-Grand later today.

He's not the young, top-of-the-rotation arm that the Yankees need and that they've been widely criticized for failing to develop over the last 10-15 years, but Warren has proven to be another useful homegrown pitcher capable of filling multiple roles on the pitching staff as needed.  Like Phelps, if he can continue to perform well, he could put himself in the mix for a rotation spot next year.

A Quick Refresher On Adam Warren

(Just chillin'.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Adam Warren will make his Major League debut tonight, and he's got some big shoes (and pants) to fill in CC Sabathia's rotation spot.  He's the 3rd of the previously-vaunted 5-man Triple-A staff to make an appearance in the show this year, and it wouldn't be unfair to say that his opportunity is the best one out of the 3.  With Sabathia on the shelf for a few weeks and Andy for a few months, Warren has a real chance to become a fixture in the rotation for the foreseeable future.  I had Warren ranked as my #7 prospect in the Yankee system in the inaugural AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list last December, but with a lot of time passing since then, it's probably good to reacquaint ourselves with him.