(Any discussion about the Yankee bullpen starts and ends with this man. Courtesy of UPI/John Angelillo.)
Since I did such a bang up job predicting the rotation that will no longer include almost half of the analyzed members, I figured I might as well see this series all the way through to its conclusion. With what happened last time, maybe there's some Triple-R karma left over from the Pineda trade and a few days after this is posted the Yankees will somehow add Craig Kimbrel and Sean Marshall to the bullpen before the season starts. But if not, here's what we can expect from the current members of the Yankee 'pen.
Mariano Rivera- Remain
At this point, history, logic, and conventional wisdom can basically go out the window with Mo. He is doing things in his 40s and performing at a level that nobody else in sports, save for maybe Nicklas Lidstrom, is doing. Age doesn't seem to be able to stop him, durability concerns that should come with a professional athlete his age don't seem to be able to stop, and a decrease in velocity doesn't seem to be able to stop him. He's coming off a year where his IP (61.1), K/9 (8.80), BB/9 (1.17), FIP (2.19), xFIP (2.64), and WAR (2.4) were all
BETTER than what he put up in 2010. In fact, Mo's 2011 FIP was the 4th best of his career; his BB/9 was the
2ND best of his career and the only other time outside of 2008 that he's been below 1.20 in that category. Mo continues to be the best in the business by being precise with his command and consistent with his approach, and he has successfully combated his decrease in velocity by becoming even more pinpoint accurate with his command. In what could finally be his last year, Mo has given no indication that he'll be anything less than brilliant again in 2012. There will be the 3-game hiccup once or twice, but that's it.
Dave Robertson- Regress
The bad news is that D-Rob is a prime candidate to regress in 2012. The good news is that it has more to do with the fact that his numbers can't get much better than they were in 2011 than it does an actual regression of his skills. D-Rob benefited from an absurdly high strand rate in 2011 (89.8%) and an absurdly low HR/FB ratio (2.3%), neither of which are likely to be repeatable in 2012 as the law of averages runs its course. Robertson is also still prone to the occasional bout of inconsistency with his command, and his walks continue to be a cause for concern (4.73 BB/9 last season). But when you have the shutdown stuff that he has, that will help cover up some of the problem areas, and with another year of high-leverage experience under his belt, I don't expect Robertson to regress much more beyond an ERA and FIP in the mid-2.00s. He possesses two elite pitches and he attacks hitters with them, and he generated more swings and misses (career highs 13.50 K/9 and 10.8 SwStr %) and less contact almost across the board in 2011 than in his previous years. The all-world numbers of 2011 probably won't be back, but D-Rob will still be one of the 5 best relievers in baseball in 2012.
Rafael Soriano- Rebound
He's not my favorite player by any means, and I won't be plunking my money down to buy his jersey any time soon, but I do believe that Rafael Soriano's 2011 was not a true representation of the type of pitcher he is and can be for the Yankees. He was the victim of a couple of really bad outings early in the season that, thanks to his extended injury absence, he didn't have enough time and enough innings of work to correct. He gave up 9 earned runs and 8 walks in his first 11.1 IP in March and April, and just 9 earned runs and 10 walks over 28 IP for the rest of the season. Soriano also experienced some issues with command that had not been present in his game in the previous two seasons. It shouldn't be taken as a coincidence that his 3.97 FIP and 4.12 BB/9 were the highest numbers in those categories from Soriano since 2008, when he posted a 3.92 FIP and a ridiculously high 5.79 BB/9. When he can locate, he can be very effective, and he showed instances of that in 2011. And who knows how much the injury contributed to his early struggles and bouts with inconsistent command? Injuries are still always a major risk with Soriano, but I expect to see a healthier, more consistent version of him in 2012. Hey, maybe he'll even smile once.