Is David Phelps Starting To Settle In?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

For the third straight year, David Phelps opened the season as part of the Yankee bullpen.  For the third straight year, injuries to multiple starters have pushed him into the rotation.  Phelps took a spot in the rotation on May 5th and has been a fixture there ever since.  With Sabathia's knee a mystery and Tanaka's elbow a huge concern, the odds are good that Phelps will remain in this role for the rest of the season.

Phelps' performance as a starter this time around has been pretty good.  In 13 starts he's pitched to a 3.96/4.08/4.22 slash line with 60 strikeouts and 29 walks in 77.1 innings pitched.  It's a sizable improvement from the near 5.00 ERA he posted in 12 starts in 2013, a performance that halted some of the momentum he'd made for himself in a strong rookie year and probably got him slotted behind Michael Pineda in this spring's 5th starter competition.  With new guys like McCarthy and Greene adjusting to their new environment, Phelps has become a much more important piece of the rotation along with fellow holdover Hiroki Kuroda.

The Chase Whitley Experiment Has To End In The Second Half

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I can't imagine there was a scenario where Joe envisioned things being so bad in his rotation this year that he had to use Chase Whitley as a regular member of it.  Even the worst of your average worst-case scenarios don't get that bad.  When CC Sabathia joined Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova on the DL in mid-May, that worst-case scenario came about in real life and the Yankees were forced to go to the Whitley well.  The move proved to be a good one for a while.  Whitley allowed 2 ER or less in 6 of his first 7 starts, 3 in the other, and gave the battered rotation a needed boost by eliminating walks and keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Right around the time that he got stretched out to a comfortable starter's pitch count, however, the performance started to sour and sour in a hurry.  Whitley gave up 8 ER in only 3.1 innings against the Blue Jays on June 23rd, his first time facing a team for a second time, and followed that up by allowing 5 in 4+ innings against the Red Sox on June 29th.  1 more bad start against the Twins in early July in which he didn't get out of the 4th inning and Whitley was booted from the rotation only to return on Sunday as an injury replacement again, this time for Masahiro Tanaka.  A scoreless 3 innings to start that game quickly turned to a 3-run 4th inning and another quick hook from Joe to go to his bullpen.  In terms of the souring analogy, Whitley has rapidly gone way past his expiration date as a starter.  If the Yankees are to have even the slightest chance of contending for a Wild Card spot, they cannot allow him to continue as part of the rotation in the second half.

Tuesday Morning Food For Thought: Heavy Workload Starting To Take Its Toll?

Tough go for Adam Warren and Dellin Betances last night.  They combined for 2 IP, 1 H, 4 BB, and only 1 strikeout from the top of the 6th to the top of the 8th.  Each of them failed to finish off the innings they started cleanly after getting 2 outs, and overall they allowed 5 of the 11 batters they faced to reach base.  Workload has been a big concern for these 2 for a while now, and in late June the signs of that heavy workload catching up to them started to show:

Warren May- 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 4 BB, 17 K
Warren June- 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 5 BB, 12 K

Betances May- 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 FIP, 2 BB, 28 K
Betances June- 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.60 FIP, 7 BB, 25 K

The splits aren't as drastic with Betances, but both he and Warren took a statistical step back in June from the complete and utter dominance they displayed in May.  There is the normalization factor to consider here as a grain of salt.  There was no way they were going to keep up May's level of performance for the rest of the season no matter what their workload was.  Joe's decision to be more judicious with how he uses them coupled with the change in eye test, however, suggests this is more than just a natural statistical regression.  Both guys have had to labor more in their recent appearances and their command has not been as spot on as it was earlier.  Their performance for the first few weeks of July is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Kuroda Quietly Settling In At The Halfway Point

In his final start of June, Hiroki Kuroda finally picked up his first win of the month last night, tossing 6.1 innings of 3-run ball against the Blue Jays and helping his team leave Canada with their dignity intact.  In doing so, he wrapped up his best month of the season to date, a season that's seen him take a step back from the levels of remarkable consistency and occasional dominance that defined his first 2 years in pinstripes.  Kuroda pitched to a 3.52 ERA and 3.65 FIP this month.  It was the first time he's had a sub-4.00 monthly ERA this year.

Strangely enough, there hasn't been a big shift in Kuroda's peripherals to explain the better results.  His K and BB rates were both worse this month than they were in May and at his age he's not the type to experience a big boost in velocity as the weather warms up.  What has helped him is the fact that he's been far less hittable than he was in previous months.  34 hits in 29.0 IP in April, 41 in 36.0 in May, only 24 in 30.2 in June.  He also only surrendered 2 home runs in June after giving up at least 4 in each of the previous 2 months.

Is this just a better sample size of BIP luck?  Hirok finding better command of his pitches?  The cop-out answer is that it's probably some of both.  Regardless of cause, the important thing is that Kuroda has established some semblance of consistency, which he lacked earlier in the season.  After giving up 4 or more runs 4 times in his first 8 starts, he's allowed 3 or less in 6 of his last 8.  He's not the pitcher he was and it doesn't look like he's going to become that pitcher again, but he's been much more steady behind Tanaka and that's been one of the quiet blessings of the last few months.

D-Rob Striking Out Everybody And Their Mothers

David Robertson gave up 5 ER in 0.2 innings on June 1st, blowing a save against the Twins in spectacular fashion.  Everybody threw up their hands, cried to the heavens, and called for him to be ousted as closer so that Dellin Betances, the new Mariano Rivera, could be ushered into his rightful spot on the throne.

Funny thing, D-Rob has picked up right where he left off before that bad outing.  You know, when he was dominating the American League with his curveball and striking out anything with a pulse and a bat in its hand.  He's made 5 appearances since the last blown save, converted 4 straight save opportunities, and has given up no runs, 2 hits, and 2 walks in 4.2 IP over that stretch while striking out 9 of the 18 batters he's faced.

That gives D-Rob 41 Ks in 22.2 IP for the season, a cool 43.6% K rate that's nipping at the heels of the almighty Betances.  Since the start of May, he's struck out 36 of the 72 total batters he's faced, a perfectly even 50.0% K rate.  The lesson, as always, is don't worry about D-Rob.

Dirty Dave Part Deux

(Might be time to update this classic and put the fireman gear on Betances)

Remember when David Robertson was carving guys up with his curveball last May?  Well he's back at it again.  D-Rob recorded all 4 of his outs via the strikeout last night, the last 3 on his curveball and all 3 of them swinging.  It was the continuation of an exceptional run he's been on over the last 2 weeks that would be getting more talk if he didn't have the Adam Dunn walk-off blown save sandwiched right in the middle of it.

In his last 7 appearances dating back to May 15th, D-Rob has pitched 7.1 innings, given up 2 ER on 7 hits (both runs on the Dunn HR), walked 2, and struck out 18.  Yes, 18.  He's recorded 22 outs in the last 2 weeks and all but 4 of them have been strikeouts.  That's pure filth.

Tanaka Faces His First Repeat Opponent Tonight

(Almost none of those were hit hard.  Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

The last time Masahiro Tanaka faced the Chicago Cubs was the first time he faced the Cubs.  It was his 3rd career Major League start and arguably his best one to date, even after his complete game shutout against the Mets last week.  He went 8 shutout innings on that day last month, allowing only a pair of infield singles with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.

Tonight Tanaka makes his 9th career start and once again he'll be facing the Cubs.  This start will mark the first time that a team has gotten a second look at him, and with the way Tanaka has altered his approach from team to team and the way he worked against the Cubs on 4/16, it will be worth paying attention to how he changes things up this time.

Thursday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Rotation Veterans Struh-guh-ling

Since last 8/17, 103 Ps have at least 60 IPs. Kuroda’s 6.07 ERA is the 3rd worst, Sabathia’s 5.16 is 7th #morethanablip? #Yankees
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 1, 2014

Saw this tweet from Joel Sherman and it made me do a double take.  I knew he faltered down the stretch last season, but I didn't realize Hirok's ERA was that bad going back that far.  If anything, I would have actually expected CC's to be the worse one and Hirok's to be in the low 5's.

A few weeks ago, this wouldn't have been a huge problem for the Yankees.  Everybody knew there was a chance that CC's major 2013 regression was the start of something permanent and that Hirok could finally be ticketed for some age-related regression of his own.  With 3 young guys there to pick them up and a solid bullpen, the Yanks should have been able to get by without their top 2 starters pitching like top 2 starters.

Now that Nova and Pineda are out, this is quickly becoming a pretty big deal.  Even though his peripherals suggest he's pitched better than his ERA, both CC and Hirok have ERAs over 5.00 in 11 combined starts.  That isn't going to cut it with Nuno and Phelps taking up the back 40% of the rotation.  Whatever's ailing them - command problems, bad luck, the dreaded bad inning - the Yanks need Hirok and CC to start turning things around and re-establish themselves as reliable, consistent presences in the rotation.

CC And His Battles With The One Bad Inning

(Courtesy of the AP)

CC Sabathia has made 6 starts in the month of April.  He's pitched 37 innings in those starts and given up 21 earned runs in those innings for a pretty bad 5.11 ERA.  As a whole, CC's performance has been subpar this year, but looking start by start it's been the 1 bad inning that's really killed him.

• 4/1- 6 IP, 6 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 1st), 4 ER
• 4/6- 6 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 6th), 3 ER
• 4/11- 7 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning top 6th), 4 ER
• 4/17- 7 IP, 1 ER; no bad innings
• 4/24- 6 IP, 2 ER; 1 bad inning (btm 3rd), 2 ER
• 4/29- 5 IP, 4 ER; 1 bad inning (top 5th), 4 ER

He's had 1 bad inning in 5 of his 6 starts and he's given up 17 of his 21 ER in those 5 innings (30.60 ERA).  In his other 32 IP, he's given up 4 ER (1.13 ERA).  On the one hand, this split shows that Sabathia's overall performance has not been as bad as his ERA would lead you to believe.  On the other, it shows how much CC is struggling to adjust to life as a finesse pitcher.  His bad innings have been defined by an inability to locate pitches down in the strike zone, an inability to put hitters away with 2 strikes, and an inability to finish off innings with 2 outs.  The Yankees need Carsten to be better with Nova and Pineda both on the shelf for the foreseeable future.  To be better, he needs to find a way to limit damage and eliminate the 1 bad inning every time out.

What To Expect From Tanaka Tomorrow

(Courtesy of the AP)

Masahiro Tanaka returns to the hill tonight tomorrow for his 3rd Major League start.  His first 2 have been nothing short of impressive.  He's shown good velocity, next-level movement, plus command, competitiveness, and as evidenced by Mike Axisa's post on RAB yesterday, the mind for the game and balls to throw any pitch in any situation.

How he's gone about showing all those things off in 2 games has been fun to watch.  On 4/4 against the Blue Jays, Tanaka threw 97 pitches and managed to throw all 7 of the pitches he knows: 30 sinkers, 24 splitters, 18 sliders, 12 4-seam fastballs, 7 curveballs, 5 cutters, and 1 changeup.  He showed off the whole arsenal to a deep and powerful lineup, got 13 swinging strikes, 8 Ks, and a win.

Nova Needs To Throw Strikes Tonight

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

It's been a tough start to Ivan Nova's 2014 campaign after a pretty good Spring Training.  His pitch plot for his first 2 starts is above and it tells the whole story of his first 2 starts.  He just isn't throwing enough strikes.  He's all over the place with his 4-seamer and his curveball, the 2 pitches that he leans on to be successful, and he can't afford a repeat of his early lack of command against a patient veteran Red Sox lineup tonight.  The fastballs need to be on the corner, the curveballs need to be somewhere near the zone to get hitters thinking about swinging at them.  If Nova can tighten up his command and shrink the spread of that pitch location plot tonight, it'll be a step in the right direction and could give him some positive momentum to build on.

P.S.- Don't forget about the live blog coming later tonight.  It should start sometime around 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central.

What Is Up With David Phelps?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

When Joe made his selections for the Opening Day roster, I expected nothing but good things for David Phelps.  Even though he didn't beat out Michael Pineda for the final rotation spot, he entered the season as one of the more experienced pitchers in the bullpen.  With all the changes in that group and the middle relief hierarchy in front of D-Rob unsettled, I thought this was going to be the year that Phelps established himself as a key part of the bullpen going forward.

First Inning Woes

Yankee Starters in 1st Inning: 3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER

Yankee Starters in All Other Innings: 14.2 IP, 11 H, 4 ER

If you don't have a calculator handy, that's an even and ugly 18.00 ERA in the 1st inning and a much prettier 2.45 ERA in every other inning pitched by the Yankees' starters in the first 3 games.  They haven't done themselves any favors by giving up early runs and putting the offense in early holes and that's a trend that can't continue once the opponents start being better teams than the Astros.  Nothing to really be worried about long-term though.  Pitchers are still working themselves into full game shape and there's always some extra adrenaline flowing in your first start of the season.  Just strange to see the Yanks stumble out of the blocks 3 games in a row.

A Tale Of Two Adjusting Pitchers

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It was another tandem activity day for CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka yesterday, in what may or may not be a strategic move by Joe.  Flip-flopping the plan from last Thursday, when Sabathia threw a sim game and Tanaka got the Grapefruit start, it was Tanaka who threw the sim in the morning and Sabathia who took the hill against real competition in the afternoon.  Their results and the manner in which they achieved them could not have been more different and provide a perfect view of 2 divergent pitching career paths.

It's Way Too Early To Worry About CC's Velocity

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It was quite the weekend for the Bronx Bombers in the Grapefruit League.  The beat the Phillies on Saturday and the Blue Jays on Sunday by a combined score of 12-2, showcasing solid pitching from the top of their ST staff to the bottom and plenty of power from both sides of the plate.  Of course wins and losses in ST games are the least important things to come out of said games, but winning still beats losing and the Yanks looked good as a team over the last 48 hours.

The highlight of the weekend was the triple-headed 2014 pitching debut of the top of the starting rotation.  CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Masahiro Tanaka all threw 2 scoreless innings on Saturday, with Kuroda looking very sharp and efficient in his outing (he only threw 17 pitches) and Tanaka giving everybody a peak at his impressive array of offspeed pitches and plus fastball command on the corners.  The only pitcher who wasn't generating positive buzz after the game, despite almost identical results, was Sabathia.  In his first game action since last year's disastrous season, Sabathia's fastball lived in the mid-80s and topped out at just 88 MPH.  This sent up the emergency alarm in the form of a tweet barrage from the beat writers and set the stage for another spring of hand-wringing over the big guy's velocity.  Before everybody starts freaking out, I'd like to kindly ask that you take a deep breath, spend the next 5 minutes reading the rest of this post, and relax.

The Legend Of Tanaka's Splitter Grows

McCann said Tanaka's splitter "falls off the table." But, more importantly, his motion on the splitter is exactly the same as on fastball.
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) February 21, 2014

Austin Romine after facing Tanaka during live BP this a.m.: ''I'm glad he's on our team. His split...I've never seen anything like that.''
— Pete Caldera (@pcaldera) February 21, 2014

Austin Romine on Tanaka's Splitter: "I had to turn around & ask what the pitch was. Never seen a ball move like that before. It’s special"
— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) February 21, 2014

Austin Romine's reaction on first seeing Masahiro Tanaka's splitter: "Wooooo!''
— wallace matthews (@ESPNNYYankees) February 21, 2014

Some more fun facts about Masahiro Tanaka's splitter: It actually rotates clockwise and counter-clockwise at the same time, it was Tanaka's best man at his wedding, it was originally supposed to be involved in a program with CM Punk for Wrestlemania before he walked out on the WWE, and in some laboratory tests it's shown the ability to slow the spread of cancer cells.  Yes sir, it's going to be something when he starts throwing it in games...

Sabathia Says He's Sure He Can "Figure Out How To Get Guys Out"

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

CC Sabathia sat down for an interview with Meredith Marakovits on "Yankees Hot Stove" last night to talk about his 2013 struggles and what he has to do to overcome them.  As part of the interview, CC downplayed the concerns about his lost velocity this past season, saying ""It doesn't mean a lot.  I've figured out I can pitch with it or without it. Whatever that is. Whether it's 90 to 92, or 92 to 94. I can pitch both ways."

That statement should come as good news from the guy the Yankees are hoping will regain his ace form in 2014.  Considering how much he struggled with his 4-seam fastball in 2013, however, the statement rings a bit hollow.  As much as we'd all love to give the big fella the benefit of the doubt, his failure to figure it out over the course of last season makes the statement more of a "let's wait and see" situation.

Sabathia said he's healthy and feels good, and he was supposed to return to his regular offseason throwing program after missing it last offseason.  That's reason for optimism and his offspeed stuff is still plenty good enough to get guys out.  If he can improve his fastball command, it shouldn't be too hard for a pitcher of his caliber to "figure out how to get guys out" in 2014.  Tanaka or no Tanaka, the Yankees need a bounce back from CC this season and his fastball is going to be the key to that.  If he's feeling good about it right now, that's a good start.

Cause For Concern With Matt Thornton

(Courtesy of FanGraphs.  Click to enlarge)

That graph shows Matt Thornton's career K/9 trends.  As you can see, it's broken down by K/9 against right-handed and left-handed hitters and as you can see, both of those lines have been trending in the wrong direction for the last 3 seasons.

Part of what makes Thornton a bit of a risky signing is that major decrease in K rate he's experienced since 2010.  The loss of swing-and-miss stuff has made him much more susceptible to getting tuned up by right-handed hitters and since 2010 that's exactly what's happened.  In 2010 righties posted a .254 wOBA against him.  In 2011 that increased to .291, in 2012 it was .302, and this past season it was .370.

Thornton is no longer the dynamic reliever he was against hitters from both sides of the plate.  He's devolved into a lefty specialist only and there's reason to be concerned that his effectiveness against lefty hitters could start to deteriorate as well based on his downtrend in strikeouts.  It hasn't happened yet (.280 wOBA vs. lefties in 2013), but it could.  Righties have figured Thornton out now that he's not throwing the same smoke he used to.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for lefties to start doing the same.

Friday Morning Food For Thought

(Courtesy of Thomas A. Ferrara/Newsday)

Yankee Pitching Staff in the 3 Years Before Larry Rothschild:

2008: 4.28/3.96/4.08, 18.5% K rate, 7.9% BB rate
2009: 4.28/4.32/4.17, 20.2% K rate, 9.2% BB rate
2010: 4.06/4.34/4.15, 18.9% K rate, 8.9% BB rate

Yankee Pitching Staff in the 3 Years Since Larry Rothschild came on board:

2011: 3.73/3.87/3.84, 19.7% K rate, 8.2% BB rate
2012: 3.86/3.98/3.75, 21.7% K rate, 7.1% BB rate
2013: 3.94/3.89/3.76, 20.1% K rate, 7.1% BB rate

I'd say bringing Larry back is the right move.  Cash just needs to get him some pitchers to work with next year.

Gut Check Time For Sabathia & Nova This Weekend

(Can't have this again, Ivan.  Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankees have fought their way back to 4-4 on this 11-game meat grinder and they're heading back to Boston this weekend to finish it up.  They took a pretty bad beating in the 4 games at The Stadium last weekend, and need much better starting pitching to make this weekend's results different.  Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball tonight and he was pretty good last Sunday against the Red Sox.  The bigger concerns are with the two guys following him, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova.