Nova Elects Surgery For Torn UCL

This was the always the endgame, even after Nova requested a second opinion on his partially torn UCL earlier this week.  Dr. James Andrews was given the second look and he echoed the recommendation of Yankees team doctor Dr. Ahmad that Nova have Tommy John Surgery on the ligament.

Nova will go under the knife for TJS next Tuesday, with Dr. Andrews himself performing the surgery.  It will officially end Nova's 2014 season, and with recovery time still an estimated 12-18 months, Nova will also lose most of his 2015 season.  A tough break for Nova and the Yankees.  Maybe this will help fix some of the minor arm issues he had leading up to the tear, but typically arm injuries mean more arm injuries.

The Potential Long-Term Effects Of Nova's Injury

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Ivan Nova's Saturday was already a bad one before the injury was announced.  He was up in the strike zone again, getting knocked around the park, and not giving his team much of a chance to win.  His early exit and subsequent UCL tear diagnosis was a stomach punch to him, a sobering blow to what had been a mostly positive start to the Yankee season, and a possible explanation for his early struggles on the mound.

With Nova now out of the picture for the near future and most likely the remainder of the season, the Yankees will have to find a way to cover for that loss.  They appear to have found a suitable replacement for the short-term in Vidal Nuno, but the baseball season is a long one and it's barely over 10% old.  More injuries are all but certain and it's the long-term ramifications of Nova's injury that are now the concern.  The ripple effect of losing Nova could extend from this past weekend into the final month of the season in a variety of ways, all of which the Yankees will have to consider and be prepared to address moving forward.

Thoughts On Nova's Injury

(That image hurts my elbow.  Courtesy of the AP)

Looking at his career history, maybe we should have seen this coming.  The partially torn UCL in Ivan Nova's right elbow that caused him to leave his last start early and landed him on the disabled list is not an isolated incident.  Nova has a history of arm injuries dating back to his early days as a Major Leaguer and a history of command and performance problems that seemed to be precursors to these arm injuries.  In a year where multiple pitchers are going down with major arm injuries each week and have been since late in Spring Training, Nova's name was the most probable of all the Yankee pitchers to get added to that list.

And yet there's still a level of shock that came with the announcement that he had suffered the UCL tear.  Maybe it was the hope that this was going to be the year Ivan put it all together.  Maybe it was the belief on a lot of people's parts (myself included) that he was going to take that next step this year.  Whatever it was, Nova's injury is a crushing blow and one that I fear could have a harmful effect on his career going forward.

Nova Needs To Throw Strikes Tonight

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

It's been a tough start to Ivan Nova's 2014 campaign after a pretty good Spring Training.  His pitch plot for his first 2 starts is above and it tells the whole story of his first 2 starts.  He just isn't throwing enough strikes.  He's all over the place with his 4-seamer and his curveball, the 2 pitches that he leans on to be successful, and he can't afford a repeat of his early lack of command against a patient veteran Red Sox lineup tonight.  The fastballs need to be on the corner, the curveballs need to be somewhere near the zone to get hitters thinking about swinging at them.  If Nova can tighten up his command and shrink the spread of that pitch location plot tonight, it'll be a step in the right direction and could give him some positive momentum to build on.

P.S.- Don't forget about the live blog coming later tonight.  It should start sometime around 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central.

What Was Nova's Problem Yesterday?

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

The better question might be what WASN'T his problem yesterday.  That pitch location plot tells the story as simply and as straightforward as any game recap could.  He threw too many fastballs, 2 and 4-seam, up in the zone and then couldn't command his curveball near the zone.  Nova didn't have 1 pitch working for him yesterday and when that's the case and you're missing up in the zone a lot, you're going to get punished.

The good news is that he didn't walk anybody yesterday, though I'm not sure that counts for much when you consider how many hits he gave up and the fact that he walked 5 in his first start.  In 9.1 IP over these first 2 starts, Nova has put 23 men on base.  16 hits, 5 BB, and 2 HBP.  That's way too many of all 3 of those categories and Nova needs to be better than that.  He's had 2 starts with command issues.  Time to see if he really has matured and can make the adjustment next time out to correct them.

Keep Talking To Me, Ivan

(Courtesy of Jonathan Dyer/USA TODAY Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Coming off back-to-back shaky outings in which he was touched up for 17 hits in 9.0 innings pitched, Ivan Nova got back on track yesterday with a brilliant start against the Atlanta Braves.  He worked 6.1 scoreless, effortless innings, giving up only 2 hits, striking out 5, and not walking a batter for the 4th straight outing.  It was a start right out of Nova's 2013 2nd half catalog.  Fastballs located down in the zone, a lot more GB outs than balls in the air, and a big swing-and-miss curveball.  Brian McCann, who said he wanted to play in yesterday's game specifically for the purpose of catching Nova again, was gushing after the game, and any uneasiness people may have been feeling after watching Nova's previous 2 starts was quelled.

Nova Starting To Figure It Out

(Courtesy of the AP)

You know what the best part was about Ivan Nova's outstanding ST start yesterday?  It wasn't the no hits or walks, it wasn't the 4 strikeouts, it wasn't even the insane strike rate (86.11%!!!) or the fact that the Washington hitters only managed to put 2 balls in the air.  Nope, it was what Nova had to say after the game when he talked to reporters about the outing:

“I don’t want to be going back and forth every time.  I just want to be a pitcher that the team can trust every five days. I just want to do my job every five days. That’s one of the goals that I really want, that I want to be consistent. I think I can do that and be really good. My body feels good, so I’ll just wait until the season and prove what I can do.”

Nova hasn't always been the most accurate or self-aware when it comes to his personal evaluations of his outings.  Multiple times we've heard him tell the media that he felt good and thought he was pitching well after some of his more disastrous outings, and answers like that tend to indicate a certain level of immaturity that pitchers need to overcome to reach their full potential.  What he had to say yesterday sounds nothing like the Nova of old and more like a pitcher who's starting to put the mental and emotional pieces to his game together to match his natural physical gifts and plus stuff.  If that's the case and Nova is growing up and adding a more mature mental approach to the physical side of his game, watch out.

Musing On D-Rob And Nova's Contract Extension Chances

(Would you extend this man?  Courtesy of the AP)

It's been a little over a week since the Yankees came out of left field (figuratively) with their 4-year contract extension for Brett Gardner.  While the extension drew universally positive reviews for its value relative to Gardner and questions relative to the much steeper price paid to Jacoby Ellsbury, the most important thing to come out of the deal was the new precedent it set for pre-free agency contract extensions for homegrown players.  The Yankees have been notoriously bad at locking up their quality young players, a problem created mainly by the lack of impact young players developed over the last 5 years and partially by their adherence to the outdated team policy of not doing extensions.

Cash's declaration that that policy is now dead is welcome news to any Yankee fan hoping to see the team get back to the top of the MLB heap.  Gardner has been incredibly valuable since becoming an everyday player in 2010 and he's now locked up through the remainder of his prime.  There are 2 other players currently in a similar situation to the one Gardner was in, and it only seems right to see how this new organizational openness to extensions will extend to them as they draw closer to free agency.

Don't Sleep On The Importance Of Ivan Nova

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Before January 22nd, Ivan Nova was a, perhaps THE, critical part of the starting rotation for 2014.  The Yankees' top 2 starters were older and both coming off varying degrees of tough seasons.  CC Sabathia was downright bad for most of 2013 and Hiroki Kuroda stumbled to the finish line after another heavy workload.  With a bunch of unproven back end guys behind him, Nova was going to be expected to carry a much bigger portion of the rotation load if one of the top 2 faltered again or got hurt, and he was going to have to pitch really well if the Yankees were going to have any chance of making it back to the postseason.

After January 22nd, and the addition of Masahiro Tanaka to the rotation, it's almost as if Nova has become an afterthought.  Tanaka has cast a much brighter glow over the entire rotation, turning Sabathia into a fit, trim former ace ready to bounce back and reclaim his title, Kuroda back into the reliable #2 he's really always been, and making the 5th starter competition much less important than it was on January 21st.  And sitting there penciled into the 4th rotation slot is Nova, the now 27-year-old right-hander coming off a career year whose importance to the Yankees' success is no longer as crucial as it was 3 weeks ago.

Gut Check Time For Sabathia & Nova This Weekend

(Can't have this again, Ivan.  Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankees have fought their way back to 4-4 on this 11-game meat grinder and they're heading back to Boston this weekend to finish it up.  They took a pretty bad beating in the 4 games at The Stadium last weekend, and need much better starting pitching to make this weekend's results different.  Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball tonight and he was pretty good last Sunday against the Red Sox.  The bigger concerns are with the two guys following him, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova.

AB4AR "Best Of The Month" Awards: August 2013

It seems like it's been a while since we've started one of the "best of the month" posts on a positive note.  That's because it has.  May and July were kinda "blah" months and June was a disaster.  To be fair, the Yankees' 16-12 record in August doesn't stand out as overwhelmingly good.  Their stumbling, bumbling start to the month has a lot to do with that.  Now that they've got some more guys healthy and have an everyday lineup that's more befitting of the team's reputation, things are on the upswing and the Yankees closed the month of August in much better shape than they were when they started.  They're back in the playoff hunt, they're as healthy as they've been all year, and they had a month chock full of great performances and great moments.  See the best of the best after the jump.

Determining Nova's Role For 2014

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Ivan Nova picked up his 3rd straight win yesterday Tuesday afternoon and 5th since rejoining the rotation in late June.  For the second straight start it was more of a struggle for him than it had been in most of his previous outings.  He was just a touch off with his command in and around the strike zone, and with his transformation into a fastball/curveball pitcher that lack of command made him more hittable.  Last year a game like yesterday's would have ended in disaster for Nova.  As it is he put 11 men on base and gave up 4 ER, hardly eye-popping numbers.  He also gave all those runs up in the 2nd inning and recovered to pitch scoreless from then on into the 7th inning.  Considering the 2012 alternative, you'd have to call yesterday  Tuesday a good start for Nova.

Return Of Super Nova?

(From Ivan The Terrible back to Ivan The Great)

Don't look now, but Ivan Nova has been killing it since returning to the active roster.  While his spot start on June 23rd came with little fanfare and no expectations - understandable given how poorly he'd pitched since the start of last season - Nova has been the best starter in the rotation since then.

29.1 IP, 21 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 28 K

That's Nova's line in the 4 appearances he's made since coming back and it's damn good.  He's allowing less than 1 baserunner per inning, striking out almost a batter per inning, and if it wasn't for a few HR given up in June he'd have a sparklingly low FIP to go with his neat little 2.45 ERA.  Most importantly, he's made a few more tweaks to his repertoire and approach that are paying huge early dividends.  Mike Eder has been tracking this for a few weeks now, and has pointed out both Nova's transition from slider to curveball for his out pitch and much improved use of his sinker as reasons for his recent success.

Give 'Em The Hook

That's just what Ivan Nova did to the Orioles last night.  He had his curveball working and he leaned on it big time on his way to a complete game victory that was arguably the best start of his career.  He threw 33 curveballs out of his 102 pitches, 15 of which were swung at and 9 that were swung at and missed.  As you can see above, Nova could locate it wherever he wanted.  He threw it down and away to righties to get them to chase and he threw it low and away and way down and way in to lefties, a sign that Nova was really feeling the command of the pitch last night.

Great fastball command (75.6% 4-seamer strikes) and a knockout swing-and-miss curveball.  Not a bad combo to have to shut down any lineup.  Nova had it last night and he might have forced his way back into the rotation discussion in the process.

(Pitch plots courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

More Of The Same, Both Good And Bad, From Nova Yesterday

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It was slightly fitting that Ivan Nova got the start yesterday on Old Timer's Day.  Like a lot of the Yankee old timers, he's become a rare sight on the field and in the dugout at Yankee Stadium.  We'd seen Nova only twice in the last 2 months before yesterday, both times as a relief pitcher, and hadn't seen Nova start a game since April 26th.  While it might look like Nova turned in a sound outing yesterday - 2 of the 3 ER charged to him scored on a single off Boone Logan - the overall performance and means used to get there was actually not that different from what we've become accustomed to getting from Nova.  The all too familiar results bring up more questions about what the future holds for Nova in a Yankee uniform.

Nova To Start Sunday

The Yankees send their ace out today to try to get a leg up in this 4-game series.  If CC is able to help them get a win today, they'll then be sending their 6th starter out to try to lock down the series victory tomorrow.  Due to the rain delay and Tuesday doubleheader earlier in the week, the Yankees need that 6th starter and it will be Ivan Nova who gets the call tomorrow instead of Kuroda or Hughes on short rest.

Nova has been the forgotten man since hitting the DL in late April.  He's lost his spot in the rotation to David Phelps and looked on the verge of losing the 6th man role until Vidal Nuno tweaked his groin recently.  He last appeared in the Majors in a 5-inning, 1-run relief effort in late May, and since then he's pitched pretty well in the Triple-A rotation (2.04 ERA/2.69 FIP over 17.2 IP in 3 starts).

The message sent by the Yankees in how they've handled Nova since he came off the DL is that they don't have a lot of faith in him, and tomorrow's start is highly unlikely to be anything more than a necessary spot start before he's sent back down.  But with the way Hughes has struggled and with Andy's back always a concern, you never know.  If Nova tosses a gem (also highly unlikely) maybe he forces his name back into consideration with Pineda still a few weeks away.

Are The Yankees Stalling With Nova?

(Is time up for Ivan The Terrible?)

It's been exactly 4 weeks to the day since Ivan Nova left his last start and hit the DL.  Prior to the Cleveland doubleheader he was talked about as the likely second starter, at least before feeling a tweak in his left side while playing catch the day before.  That issue was immediately talked down as nothing serious by both Joe and Cash, and yet here we are almost 2 weeks later with Nova still not back on the active roster and with there still being no announced plan to get him back on.  Pitching has been the strength of this team this season, especially lately, so it begs the question.  Have the Yankees been stalling in bringing Nova back?  Do they even want to?

What Nova Needs To Work On

(Courtesy of Reuters)

With his 15-day DL stint winding down and the make-up doubleheader against Cleveland scheduled for Monday, the prevailing thought is that Ivan Nova will be activated to pitch one of those games.  Joe didn't fully commit to it before last night's game, acknowledging that the team would first want to make sure Nova came through today's ExST outing without issue before making the decision.  Assuming the reports from that outing all come back positive, however, the combination of timing and situation makes too much sense for it not to happen.

Nova wasn't pitching particularly well prior to hitting the DL.  Joe's short leash was a clear indication that he had lost confidence in Nova, and rumblings had already started about the security of Ivan's rotation spot.  A return to pitch in a situation of need like a doubleheader is not a guarantee that Nova will get his rotation spot back, especially if he pitches poorly, but assuming he will be back and David Phelps is heading back to the bullpen here's what Nova needs to do to nail down that spot.

Thoughts On Nova's Injury

(Courtesy of Reuters)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Despite coming away with a 4-game sweep of the Blue Jays, this past weekend was another costly one for the Yankees.  In the span of just a few innings and probably less than an hour of real time, they lost both halves of their starting battery on Friday night, losing Francisco Cervelli to a fractured right hand and Ivan Nova to what was officially diagnosed as right triceps inflammation.  I already spent some time on Saturday discussing Cervelli's injury and its implications, and I do believe that will be the greater loss for the Yankees , but there's plenty to consider with respect to Nova's injury as well.  Now that we know exactly what the injury is and that he won't be spending any time under a knife to deal with it, this seems like a good time to discuss.

BREAKING NEWS: Everybody And Their Mother Leaving Tonight's Game With Injuries

Well this hasn't been a very fun night for the Yankees, and the game isn't even 3 innings old yet.  After first losing Francisco Cervelli to an injury to his right hand on the 5th pitch of the game in the top of the 1st, they've also just lost Ivan Nova to an apparent leg injury after he pulled up awkwardly delivering a pitch.

No official word yet on either player, although Sweeny Murti is hearing whispers of a fracture for Cervelli's hand and Donnie Collins reported that Austin Romine left the Triple-A RailRiders game mid-inning quickly after Cervelli left the big league game.  Neither of those things are good signs, and chances are Cervelli is going to miss a significant chunk of time.  More on both of these stories as it becomes available.

** UPDATE 7:44 PM- Via Meredith Marakovits, Cervelli has a fractured right hand that will require surgery and Nova left with pain in his elbow.  Not good news for either guy. **

** UPDATE 7:47 PM- Via the whole beat writer contingent, Cervelli is expected to miss at least 6 weeks; MRI on Nova's right elbow scheduled for tonight. **

** UPDATE 8:12 AM 4/27- Cervelli's hand surgery is scheduled for today, Romine has been confirmed as the call up to replace him and should be on the roster and in the dugout today, and while Nova's MRI results still aren't known, it's been reported that he was complaining of tightness in his triceps area.  Should find out more today. **