The End Of The AB4AR Era

On August 30th, 2009, I was still a relative newcomer to the midwest.  Bored and missing home on that Sunday afternoon, I made the decision to start my first blog, this blog.  The decision to write about the Yankees was an easy one.  They've always been my favorite team and getting into writing about them would be a great way to stay close to them and follow them without the benefit of the YES Network that I had back in CT.  The writing was admittedly not very good early, more the ramblings of an under-educated baseball fan than true analysis.  But by writing more and by starting to read other Yankee blogs, I slowly figured out what I was missing and where I was lacking, and over the last few years I think I've managed to bring this blog up to some minimal level of respectability.

Now almost 5 years and 3,956 blogs later, the time has come to say goodbye, at least as the leader of the AB4ARmy.  Tomorrow morning I'll be starting a  full-time role over at IIATMS/TYA as the new co-Editor-In-Chief, and this 3,957th blog on AB4AR will be my last.

In a way, nothing is really changing.  I'll be writing all the same stuff I am now, just over there exclusively.  I won't be able to throw out the casual F-word anymore, but looking back at how frequently I used it in the early days of AB4AR, that's probably a good thing.  With some changes on the horizon in my personal and professional lives, it just didn't make sense to keep splitting my time anymore, and I think I've taken the minimalist blogger approach about as far I can on this site.  Maybe now I'll actually be forced to create a Twitter account.

So to everybody who's been a regular AB4AR reader for any amount of time over the last 5 years, thank you.  It's your support that got me my first opportunity at TYA and got me the chance to take this latest opportunity at IIATMS.  I hope you'll keep following and reading over at IIATMS if you don't already because we've got a really great group of writers there and we're going to be churning out a lot of quality content.  I don't want to say this is the end of AB4AR forever, but it's definitely the end of it for now.  Thanks again to everybody who's been a reader, and I'll see you on the other side tomorrow.

Lindgren Starts Climbing The Ladder

It's been over a month since he was drafted and about 3 weeks since he made his pro debut, but Jacob Lindgren is already starting to show why the Yankees were so high on him in making him their first pick of the 2014 draft.  He made his High-A debut last night and did so by striking out the side in a perfect inning.  For the season he's now pitched 7 innings across 3 different levels (GCL, Low-A, High-A), and he's given up 1 ER with 0 walks and 16 strikeouts in those 7 innings.

His stuff was considered MLB-ready by most scouts at the draft and it was universally agreed upon that he was MLB-ready as a lefty specialist the minute he was drafted.  The early small sample size results are exactly what you'd expect from a college reliever with that kind of profile.  Lindgren has been efficient and dominant against lower-level MiL hitters and I don't expect him to stay in Tampa for very long.  It will be fun watching him for the next 2 months to see how aggressive the Yankees get with him and whether he works his way up to a September call up.

Thursday Morning Food For Thought: A Simple Lineup Switch

Talking about the need for Joe to make lineup changes is almost a dead horse topic at this point.  He's fiddled where and when he could, but regular injuries and subpar performance have handcuffed any chances for real results.  He's not going to move Derek Jeter out of the 2-spot, he can't count on Carlos Beltran being a reliable run producer in the middle, and if he had somebody better than Ichiro to hit 7th he would be using him now.  The Yankee lineup is what it is.

Except for 1 easy and almost stupidly logical move that Joe can still make.  He could swap Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner in the batting order.  Ellsbury can go back and hit first like he was always supposed to, and Gardner, one of the hottest hitters on the team, can move down to a better run-producing spot in front of Teix.  Ellsbury's a better base stealer, Gardner has hit for more power, what is there to lose?  I doubt it's going to happen, but I'm rooting for it when the lineup card comes out tomorrow afternoon.

P.S.- For more on this topic, check out William Tasker's post from Tuesday at IIATMS/TYA.

Luis Severino Promoted To Double-A

Finally got it confirmed: Luis Severino has been promoted to Double-A Trenton and will pitch Saturday. #Yankees
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) July 15, 2014

I know a lot of people aren't fans of this move, saying it was too soon and that Severino would have benefited more from spending the rest of this year in Tampa.  Here's why all of those people are wrong.  Severino averaged a shade under 5 IP per start with a 2.79 ERA and a 25.3% K rate in 67.2 IP at Low-A before getting bumped to Tampa.  In 4 starts there he's averaged a shade OVER 5 IP with a 1.31 ERA and 35.0% K rate in 20.2 IP.  He's been markedly better against what is supposed to be better competition.  There's nothing left for him to learn at the High-A level and so he should be moved up.  Keeping him in Tampa solely for the sake of keeping him there would be a waste of time.

By moving Severino up to Double-A, the Yankees are giving him a real challenge and giving themselves and the rest of baseball a new measuring stick by which to evaluate his talents.  The jump from High-A to Double-A is much bigger than Low-A to High-A, and a good performance here for the rest of this year will legitimize all the early praise and prospect ranking raises Severino has received and solidify him as one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball.  If he does experience a few growing pains, then he can spend more time at this level next year to work on things.  Really a no-lose situation for him and the Yankees if you think about it.

Quick Hit: No Extension Talks For D-Rob

Via Anthony McCarron:

“This offseason, my numbers from this year are going to count, so why focus on what’s going to happen then instead of what’s happening now?

... We’ll see what happens. There haven’t been any talks, so we’ll see.

... There’s just been zero talks. When the offseason comes, it comes and we’ll hear what other teams and everybody else wants to say.”

On the one hand, this sounds like a player who's got his mind in the right place and is focused on the right things.  He's not worried about his contract situation.  On the other, it does sound  to me like D-Rob might not be totally happy that there haven't been any talks at all.  He did say "it's not my call" when asked if he preferred to wait until the offseason to discuss an extension.  On a human level, I could understand him being a bit frustrated if he's communicated that he wants to stay a Yankee and hasn't had anything reciprocated by the team.

For as much as people want to say that giving big money, multi-year deals to relievers is dumb, D-Rob is going to get some big offers if and when he hits the open market this offseason.  He's proven himself to be more than capable of replacing Mo as the closer and Dellin Betances' presence shouldn't be justification for letting him walk so much as motivation to retain both and have the final 2-3 innings of games locked down for the next few years.  The team didn't engage Brett Gardner during the season last year and worked out an extension with him.  I certainly hope they're planning to repeat that strategy with D-Rob this year.

Yanks Release Soriano, Clear A Roster Spot

While the eyes of the baseball world were on the Home Run Derby last night, the Yankees were conducting a bit of roster business in preparation for the second half of the season.  Alfonso Soriano was released outright after being designated for assignment on July 6th.  To no one's amazement, nobody wanted to trade for a washed up outfielder with no bat speed.  They also sent Bryan Mitchell back down to Triple-A, leaving them with 24 men on the active roster.

For Soriano, this is a sad way to end his second stint in pinstripes.  He was electric upon his initial return last year, smacking 17 HR in less than 60 games to give fans something to cheer about.  That success did not carry over to this season, as his .221/.244/.367 slash line and career-worst 29.8% K rate said more about what he had left in the tank than any of his words ever could.  I have to think this move will lead to Soriano announcing his retirement after this season.

As for the roster spot, I hope it's for another starting pitcher.  The Yanks cannot continue to let Chase Whitley work as a starter, even with Tanaka out, and that's something I'll discuss in greater detail later this morning.  They should move him back to the bullpen and replace Mitchell with a new 5th starter.

Sunday Morning Food For Thought: Does Rob Thomson Need To Go?

Yup, Yankees still lead AL in outs made at home plate (15). Had 13 all of last year.
— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) July 12, 2014

Fellow IIATMS teammate Katie Sharp tweeted that stat out last night and it absolutely blew me away.  I knew the Yankees had lost a few runs this year by getting thrown out at the plate. It's going to happen more than a few times over the course of the season, but that many?  In a little more than 90 games??  That's incredibly problematic, and suggestive of something more than just bad luck or great defensive plays.

Take the second gun down at the plate last night.  Jacoby Ellsbury had barely reached third base when Adam Jones picked up the single hit to him in the outfield.  Jones has a cannon for an arm, something that's no longer a surprise to anybody in baseball, and yet Rob Thomson chose to send Ellsbury anyway.  Ellsbury was predictably thrown out and the inning was over.

When you struggle to score runs as much as the Yankees do, every run is important.  They can't afford to be giving away runs with careless baserunning and the high number of runs they've given up by getting thrown out at the plate has to fall on Thomson's shoulders.  Firing him now will do little to change the team's overall offensive problems, but after this season maybe it's time for Joe to shake up his coaching staff and bring somebody new in to handle third, somebody who can make better decisions and not run his team out of potential runs by being unnecessarily aggressive.

A Week Gone By And Not Much Has Changed

Greetings from the Hannover airport, gang.  I got here way too early for my flight to Paris and had to pay for wifi, but whatever.  The important thing is my week of work training is over, the time gap between me and the baseball world is starting to shrink as I head back home today, and the blogging can resume as normal.

At first glance, it looks like I missed a lot in the last week.  Masahiro Tanaka has gone on the DL with a torn UCL that is going to eventually require TJS and the resulting lost year  no matter how good the Yankees think their rehab strategy is (spoiler alert- it's not).  There are 3 new starting pitchers in the rotation in the form of the called up Shane Greene and the traded for Brandon McCarthy and Jeff Francis.  None of that inspires confidence, but those are pretty big changes, right?

Not really.  The reality of the situation is that nothing has changed in Yankeeland.  For better or worse really.  They went 3-3 in the past week with a -4 run differential, putting them at 46-46 on the season with a -38 run differential.  They still can't hit (looking at you, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran), their bullpen is still drastically overworked and not deep enough to account for that, and they're still just close enough to the playoff races - 5 out in the division and 2.5 out of the wild card - to not really be out of them while at the same time not really qualifying as "contenders".  The All-Star break is coming at the perfect time for them, but there's little reason to expect the second half to be any better or different than the first.  This year's team has officially become more mediocre and more boring than last year's.  Gotta love Yankee baseball!

P.S.- Sorry about your broken face and concussion, Carlos.  Gotta keep that head on a swivel, chief.

Quick Hit: Tanaka To The DL With Elbow Problems; Heading For An MRI

My reaction:



That's an overseas HOT TAKE for you right there, people.  Here's another one.  If this is anything even remotely serious, and it sounds like it more than likely is, then you can get a shovel, dig a hole, and bury this season 6 feet under because it's over and dead.

Sunday Roster Moves: McCarthy In, Nuno And Soriano Out

Germany or no Germany, I couldn't very well let the Yankees make a slew of early roster moves today without my 2 cents.  It started when they called up Bruce Billings as a fresh arm for tonight's game, it continued when they announced that they had traded Vidal Nuno to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-hander Brandon McCarthy a few hours ago, and it got real a few minutes ago when they announced that Alfonso Soriano had been designated for assignment to open a 25-man spot for Billings.

On the McCarthy move, it's a good one.  He's an upgrade over Nuno and will help give a little more length from the back end of the makeshift rotation, although not the type of upgrade the front office was hoping to get from somebody like Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammels.  Personally I think the value of adding McCarthy gets limited a bit by having to give up Nuno for him.  I think Nuno was a better fit as a multi-use lefty reliever and not being able to move him into that role to help the 'pen is a bummer.

As for Soriano, it was a long time coming and last night's 0-4 game with 2 more strikeouts and a dropped foul pop up was the last straw.  He was a great half-season pickup last year and looked genuinely re-energized playing back in New York, but the Father Time clock struck midnight this year and he never found his game at the plate, whether he was getting regular ABs or not.  Hopefully that roster spot gets used for somebody better than Billings down the road.  Like an actual right-handed power bat.

Site News: Gone For A Week

So as you may or may not have noticed, I made a few references to traveling to Germany earlier this week.  I'm actually flying out this afternoon and I'll be out there all next week participating in a work training program.  Because of this, I won't be able to cover any of what happens next week so for all intents and purposes AB4AR will be on a short break while I'm away.

There is a chance that I'll have some time in the mornings in Germany to write some stuff, but not much of one.  If anything really important happens, I'll throw up a quick blurb on it when I have time.  If nothing does, it'll almost certainly be all quiet on the AB4AR front.  I fly back a week from today, so next Saturday evening into Sunday you should see posts going up again and things will be back to normal on Monday the 14th.

Keep the faith while I'm gone, Yankee fans.  See ya in a week.

BREAKING: Sabathia Has Fluid On His Knee, Going For An MRI (UPDATED)

Girardi just said on WFAN that Sabathia woke up today with fluid in knee and prob headed for MRI. Unsure what's next for him. #yankees
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) July 3, 2014

That's the whole story as far as we know right now and it isn't good.  After pitching on short rest and throwing 55 pitches in his second MiL rehab start last night, CC Sabathia woke up this morning with fluid in his surgically-repaired and recently stem cell/cortisone-injected degenerative right knee.  He's going for an MRI to assess the level of damage and severity and as of right now his comeback plans are on hold.

More on this story as it comes out...

** 4:49 PM- Via multiple beat guys and gals, Girardi said there was "swelling" in CC's right knee as well.  This doesn't sound at all like it's going to have a happy ending. **

Sabathia Watch: Getting Roughed Up In His Second Rehab Start

Originally scheduled for today, CC Sabathia had his second MiL rehab start moved up to last night.  Pitching for Double-A Trenton, he went 3.2 innings, throwing 55 pitches and allowing 5 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 2.  Like in his first start, his fastball was sitting high 80s-90 and touching the low 90s on occasion.

I haven't seen any reports on the outing or quotes from Sabathia on how he felt, but if something had gone wrong with his knee I'm sure that would have made its way out.  I did find it somewhat surprising that the Yankees elected to move this start up and pitch CC on 3 days' rest.  For as slowly as they took the rest and early workout portions of his rehab, pitching him on short rest in his second game back seems unnecessarily aggressive.  Whatever, I'm sure they had their reasons.  With July 27th set as his activation date and Joe saying he will work on regular rest from here on out, there's time for him to make 4 more starts.  We'll see if the Yankees use all of them.

Report: Yanks Scouting Chase Headley

Yankees are scouting Padres 3B Chase Headley regularly, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 1, 2014

If this were 2012, I'd be ecstatic about that report from Jon Morosi yesterday.  In 2014, it's not nearly as exciting.  The Yankees could use help in the infield and bringing in a proven, regular third baseman like Headley would allow Joe to focus his platoon attention to second base.  But Headley has been in a steady decline since his banner year of 2012.  He battled injuries last season while batting .250/.347/.400 and he's been further hampered by a herniated disc in his back this year that has limited him to a .201/.287/.320 slash line in 247 PA.

Headley is set to become a free agent after this season and is now 30 years old.  Between that, the injury problems, and the decline in production, the Padres' asking price for him has to have come way down.  There's a chance that a move out of Petco Park could help boost his production, but with the back problems I'd be hesitant to give up anything of real value for him.  The Yanks don't need a Youkilis repeat.

Sabathia Watch: Throws First Rehab Start For High-A Tampa

Start the countdown clock to July 27th, because CC Sabathia made his first Minor League rehab start yesterday.  He threw 2.1 innings for High-A Tampa, giving up 2 earned runs on 3 hits while striking out 2 and walking 1.  Of his 36 pitches, 24 were strikes and according to Erik Boland, a scout had him sitting high 80s with his fastball and touching 90 once or twice.  The scout said it "looks like Spring Training", which is not a huge surprise considering Sabathia's age, the injury, and the slow-paced nature of his rehab schedule.

Also not surprising was CC's take on his outing.  He said he "couldn't be happier" with the way he felt.  This is the same thing we've heard for every other injury rehab, so take it with a grain of salt, but at least it's better than him saying he felt pain or discomfort in the knee.  No word yet on when or where his next rehab outing will take place, but signs point to it being sometime next week for Double-A Trenton.

Nuno Cracks The Code

Differences in Vidal Nuno last night. Better FB, better slider and, most of all, better location. Held the Red Sox to 0 for 8 w men on base.
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) June 28, 2014

Not to make too much fun of Jack, because I think he's one of the best Yankee reporters and analysts out there, but this is about as "duh" a statement as you can make.  You mean to tell me a pitcher who throws a good fastball, good slider, and locates his pitches is going to have a good game?  NO WAY!!!  Hot Take City USA, population Jack Curry.

In all seriousness, good for Nuno for turning in a good start last night.  His team needed it to calm the talk about how he needs to be taken out of the rotation, and he needed it to get a little boost of confidence.  To have a start like he had at home can only help that confidence and hopefully it means more good starts like this for the next.  Hopefully it also leads to more groundbreaking analysis like this from the Yankee beat guys.

Happy Birthday To The Captain

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

He may not be able to hit a fastball anymore.  He may not be able to move laterally in either direction to field a ball that's hit more than 2 steps away.  He may not even remember how many outs there are in any given inning.  But there's something to be said for playing professional baseball at the highest level imaginable at age 40, and that's something Derek Jeter can proudly say he's doing as of today.

The Captain officially turns the big 4-0 today, and the laundry list of accomplishments he's achieved in his time spent as a Yankee over those years need not be repeated to anybody who follows the Yankees or the game of baseball in general.  He's one of the greatest players of the last 20 years, the greatest Yankee that anybody my age has seen in his or her lifetime, and his name and accomplishments are going to live on in New York sport history long after he and we are gone.  He may be a fraction of the player he was in his prime, but he's still out there doing something that almost all of his peers will say they wish they could still do when they turn 40 and that's pretty impressive.

So happy birthday, Captain.  If you want to celebrate by racking up a few hits tonight* and not making any physical or mental errors in the field, that'd be A-OK by me.

* (Or tomorrow, since the Yanks are off tonight.  Either works fine for me)

Alfonso Soriano Must Be Delusional

Jorge Castillo of The Star-Ledger had an interesting article earlier today about Alfonso Soriano and his struggle to adjust to life as a primarily bench/platoon player.  Within the article, Castillo gets a lot of good quotes from Soriano about the transition, how he feels about the demotion, and what he tries to do to stay ready, and for the most part it's all good stuff.  But Soriano's self-evaluation when it comes to his hitting leaves a bit to be desired:

"The most important thing is the ability with my hands is there. The most important things are health and the hands. I feel like my bat is there, too."

Al.  Buddy.  Dude.  I don't know what you think you're feeling in your hands when you're up to bat, but I'm telling you it's not ability.  You haven't drawn a walk all month.  You've been striking out in over 35% of your plate appearances since the start of May.  You've hit .212/.212/.273 this month and your season slash line would put you in the bottom 10% of hitters in MLB if you had enough PA to qualify for the batting title.  You're not showing any ability.  Your bat is not there.  I mean, it's literally there, in your ability-lacking hands, but not "there" in a sense that you're doing anything good with it.

I get that you'd like to be getting some more run, but you've got to do a little more to convince Joe that your bat is actually useful than just say it.  Trying using it to hit a ball into a gap or over an outfield wall every now and then.  That might help.  What won't help is saying that you think it's there when it's not.  That type of talk would have me walking you into the trainer's office to be concussion tested if I was the manager.

Mid-Week Minor League News And Notes

There were a handful of stories and updates on some well-known Minor League guys yesterday.  Here they are in case you missed any of them:

- The bad news first.  According to Mark Newman, Slade Heathcott is set for another surgery on his knee and will miss the rest of this season.  Considering it was the same knee he had surgery on last year and he only played 9 games after returning from it, I think we can start to turn on the light on Heathcott's prospect status.  Too bad.

- Now the good.  Luis Severino and Peter O'Brien were selected to represent the Yankees in this year's Futures Game.  O'Brien is 3rd in all of baseball in HR this season.  Kudos to both.

- A paper thin Triple-A rotation will get a boost this weekend when Nik Turley returns from the DL.  He's been out since suffering an arm strain in March.

- Via Nick Peruffo, lefty starter Daniel Camarena was promoted from High-A Tampa to Double-A Trenton.  He pitched to a 2.72 ERA in Tampa and is only 21 years old.  I profiled him early last year as someone to watch.

Sabathia Graduating To Live BP This Week

The rehab process for CC Sabathia and his degenerative right knee took another step forward over the weekend and could take another step or 2 forward this week.  Sabathia threw a 36-pitch bullpen session at The Stadium before Saturday's game, at what sounds like full strength.  Sabathia said he "got after it a little bit" when he was throwing and that he was trying to really test the strength of his knee to make sure it will hold up.  For what it's worth, he said the knee felt good after he finished.

From there, Sabathia is heading to the team facility in Tampa this week, where he will move to throwing live batting practice tomorrow.  If he comes through that well, the tentative plan is to have him pitch in a MiL game on Saturday.  The decision on what level won't come until later in the week, but I wouldn't be surprised if the team tries to get creative and get him in a few unofficial games so as not to start his 20-day MiL clock early.  We're still 3 weeks away from the All-Star break and the plan was to bring him through a full ST simulation to get him stretched back out.  Regardless of how good he feels and how poorly Vidal Nuno is pitching, there's no reason to rush that.