McCarthy Gets Back To Cutting As A Yankee

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

That's Brandon McCarthy's pitch location plot from yesterday's start.  You'll notice that there are 2 very distinct locations on either side of the plate for 2 different types of fastballs.  I knew McCarthy was a sinker guy when he came over from Arizona.  What I didn't know was that he used to be a much bigger cutter guy and had gotten away from it during his time as a D'back.  Via Chad Jennings, McCarthy talked about that transition and the transition back to throwing his cutter more since joining the Yankees:

“It wasn’t something I totally agreed with.  Now, coming here, and them going back over everything I’ve done and realizing that was a big part of my success, we decided to add that back in. It’s been a nice change.”

The disagreement McCarthy is referring to is with the D'backs, who requested that McCarthy not throw the cutter as much when they acquired him.  Why an organization would feel the need to tell a pitcher to stop throwing a pitch he likes to throw and throws well is beyond me, but I guess it makes sense that Arizona is where it is right now when those types of decisions are being made.

The Yankees have been home to some of the greatest cutters in baseball history, including the originator of the pitch.  If they're going to let, and even encourage, McCarthy to throw it more, that's a very good thing for him and them.  He showed what he can do when he's commanding it yesterday, and if he can keep throwing it like that and mixing his sinker in effectively, this trade could turn into a steal for the Yanks.

Shane Greene's Stock Rising As His Sinker Sinks

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

In Spring Training, Shane Greene drew some attention for how well he pitched.  While the overall SSS numbers weren't sparkling (4 ER, 8 H in 7.2 IP), Greene did strike out 10 batters and show the kind of stuff capable of getting Major League hitters out.  Working exclusively in a relief role and then getting shuttled between Triple-A and the Majors early in the regular season in that same role got him off kilter, as did an early injury, and his results once he returned to his regular starting role weren't that impressive.  He was consistently inconsistent at best and mildly disappointing at worst.

Since the middle of June, however, it's been a different story.  Greene allowed only 6 ER over 28 IP in his last 5 Triple-A starts with 23 strikeouts and 10 walks, and after Masahiro Tanaka went on the DL with his UCL tear it was Greene who got the call as his replacement in the Major League rotation.  All he did this past week in his first 2 Major League starts was throw 13.1 innings of 2-run ball with an 11/2 K/BB split and pick up the win in both starts.  Not bad for a guy who wasn't much of a thought as a legitimate organizational prospect before the start of last season.

Whitley Mixes It Up Against Lefties

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

When I was giving props to Chase Whitley earlier in the week, I made reference to the 2 approaches he's featured against right and left-handed hitters.  His changeup had been his biggest weapon against lefties and he was setting it up well with his 4-seam fastball.  Seattle stacked their lineup with lefty hitters for last night's series finale, putting them in the top 4 spots in the batting order as well as 6th, 7th, and 9th.  In response, Whitley mixed up his routine a little to counter them and keep them at bay.

More On Soriano's Slump

On Tuesday, I took a painful look at Alfonso Soriano and his middling production this season.  He's been a major drain on the middle of the order and even more un-productive than Brian McCann, and it looked like it was attributable to nothing more than him being old and losing bat speed.  On that same day, Matt Bove of IIATMS/TYA also pointed out Soriano's drastic decline in power and spike in strikeouts, which inspired me to dig a little deeper.  Turns out Soriano has a major platoon split this season.  He's got an .805 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .563 against lefties, with more walks and strikeouts against southpaws.

Knowing that Soriano has been getting beaten badly by the fastball this season, is it possible that Soriano is getting a little of the Derek Jeter treatment and being pitched to in a way by righties that exploits his apparent loss of bat speed?

Dirty Dave Part Deux

(Might be time to update this classic and put the fireman gear on Betances)

Remember when David Robertson was carving guys up with his curveball last May?  Well he's back at it again.  D-Rob recorded all 4 of his outs via the strikeout last night, the last 3 on his curveball and all 3 of them swinging.  It was the continuation of an exceptional run he's been on over the last 2 weeks that would be getting more talk if he didn't have the Adam Dunn walk-off blown save sandwiched right in the middle of it.

In his last 7 appearances dating back to May 15th, D-Rob has pitched 7.1 innings, given up 2 ER on 7 hits (both runs on the Dunn HR), walked 2, and struck out 18.  Yes, 18.  He's recorded 22 outs in the last 2 weeks and all but 4 of them have been strikeouts.  That's pure filth.

What Was Tanaka's Problem Last Night?

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

In a nutshell, that's it right there.  Bad sinker command.  Tanaka couldn't get his sinker down in the zone last night, he gave up 3 leadoff hits on the pitch, and all 3 of those hits came around to score.  It wasn't like the Cubs knocked him all over the park.  The 4 runs they scored against Tanaka came on 2 GB singles and 2 sac flies.  But they did hit him fairly hard and it was what they did against his off sinker that set them up.  That and the flat slider that Tanaka couldn't get down when he needed to either.

The strategy was exactly what I expected it to be.  Tanaka threw more 4-seamers and more sliders than he did the first time he faced the Cubs.  He just didn't execute his pitches as well this time.  It happens.

Tanaka Faces His First Repeat Opponent Tonight

(Almost none of those were hit hard.  Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

The last time Masahiro Tanaka faced the Chicago Cubs was the first time he faced the Cubs.  It was his 3rd career Major League start and arguably his best one to date, even after his complete game shutout against the Mets last week.  He went 8 shutout innings on that day last month, allowing only a pair of infield singles with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.

Tonight Tanaka makes his 9th career start and once again he'll be facing the Cubs.  This start will mark the first time that a team has gotten a second look at him, and with the way Tanaka has altered his approach from team to team and the way he worked against the Cubs on 4/16, it will be worth paying attention to how he changes things up this time.

Dellin Betances Says Hello

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Get a gander at that right there.  That's Dellin Betances' pitch location plot from last night.  In case you missed it and somehow started reading this post before any kind of game recap, Betances was brought in with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 5th inning.  He got a groundball out to finish that inning and then proceeded to strike out the next 6 batters he faced in order to get through the 7th.  It was downright murderous.

Too Much Tanaka

Masahiro Tanaka threw 114 pitches last night, 76 for strikes.  He mostly threw 4-seamers and splitters (57.9%), but mixed in plenty of sliders and sinkers as well.  By now, you know how well he managed throwing those 114 pitches, but look at the location of his offspeed stuff and understand why he was able to be so dominant last night:

That's the splitter plot, sweet MS Paint circle added by me for effect.  Of the 29 splits Tanaka threw last night, only those 3 in the middle of the zone were really good pitches to hit.  Over half of them weren't even in the strike zone and yet Tanaka got 15 swings and 6 whiffs.  That's nasty.

Nova Needs To Throw Strikes Tonight

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

It's been a tough start to Ivan Nova's 2014 campaign after a pretty good Spring Training.  His pitch plot for his first 2 starts is above and it tells the whole story of his first 2 starts.  He just isn't throwing enough strikes.  He's all over the place with his 4-seamer and his curveball, the 2 pitches that he leans on to be successful, and he can't afford a repeat of his early lack of command against a patient veteran Red Sox lineup tonight.  The fastballs need to be on the corner, the curveballs need to be somewhere near the zone to get hitters thinking about swinging at them.  If Nova can tighten up his command and shrink the spread of that pitch location plot tonight, it'll be a step in the right direction and could give him some positive momentum to build on.

P.S.- Don't forget about the live blog coming later tonight.  It should start sometime around 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central.

Yankees Leading The Early Charge In Pitch Framing

A few days ago, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs posted a very cool piece analyzing each team's early pitch framing success.  Using an existing pitch framing model, he tracked all called pitches for each MLB team to determine how many more or less called strikes they were getting compared to the expected average.  The Yankees topped the list with +25 called strikes, 3 more than the next closest team and 9 more than the 3rd highest team, each of whom had a larger called pitch sample size than the Yankees.

There are plenty of disclaimers that have to be put on this.  Pitch framing is still a relatively new method of analysis and there are a lot of things that aren't factored into Sullivan's study, namely individual differences in strike zones by umpire and the effect that pitchers' command has on final pitch location and the catchers' ability to frame.  Based on those 2 factors, I'd say it's a little premature to start assigning run values to each additional called strike like Sullivan has, but at a high level this study shows that there is value in above-average pitch framing and speaks to the 2-sided skill set it takes to be an above-average team in that department.  Both Francisco Cervelli and Brian McCann rate as above-average framers, McCann decidedly so, and the Yankee pitching staff has a 6.1% BB rate, tied for 4th best in MLB.

When you're commanding the ball in or near the strike zone and have good receivers and framers behind the plate, you should have a very good frame rate like the Yankees do.  Over the course of a season, every additional called strike will add up to something positive for the Yankees in terms of win expectancy and that's always a good thing.

What Was Nova's Problem Yesterday?

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

The better question might be what WASN'T his problem yesterday.  That pitch location plot tells the story as simply and as straightforward as any game recap could.  He threw too many fastballs, 2 and 4-seam, up in the zone and then couldn't command his curveball near the zone.  Nova didn't have 1 pitch working for him yesterday and when that's the case and you're missing up in the zone a lot, you're going to get punished.

The good news is that he didn't walk anybody yesterday, though I'm not sure that counts for much when you consider how many hits he gave up and the fact that he walked 5 in his first start.  In 9.1 IP over these first 2 starts, Nova has put 23 men on base.  16 hits, 5 BB, and 2 HBP.  That's way too many of all 3 of those categories and Nova needs to be better than that.  He's had 2 starts with command issues.  Time to see if he really has matured and can make the adjustment next time out to correct them.

Searching For The Cause Of Kuroda's Regression

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Hiroki Kuroda's last 3 starts have been decidedly un-Hirok: 15 ER, 29 H, 5 HR in 16.2 IP.  The timing of this extreme regression obviously couldn't have been worse, and the Yankees need their new ace to right the ship sooner rather than later if they're going to have even the slightest chance of making a run in September.  Before he can do that, however, the source of the problem needs to be identified.  A comparison of his last 3 starts to the monster 5-game run he had in July sheds some light on what might be causing the downtrend.

Sabathia's Fastball Struggles Continue

That's CC Sabathia's 4-seam fastball plot from his start last night.  It's noteworthy mainly because it shows almost no pattern whatsoever.  He's scattered throughout the strike zone, missing badly both up and down, and still leaving too many pitches in the meaty part of the hitting zone.  The fastball, be it due to velocity or location, has been at the forefront of any analysis of CC since Opening Day and he's been at his best when he's been able to locate it down in the zone.

Strangely enough, last night's ambiguous, inconsistent location plot was actually a step up from what CC's fastball has been doing for him lately.  3 earned runs allowed in 7.1 innings is much better than the atrocious results he put up in his previous 4 starts, and the collection of 4-seamers he threw in those starts looks like this:

Give 'Em The Hook

That's just what Ivan Nova did to the Orioles last night.  He had his curveball working and he leaned on it big time on his way to a complete game victory that was arguably the best start of his career.  He threw 33 curveballs out of his 102 pitches, 15 of which were swung at and 9 that were swung at and missed.  As you can see above, Nova could locate it wherever he wanted.  He threw it down and away to righties to get them to chase and he threw it low and away and way down and way in to lefties, a sign that Nova was really feeling the command of the pitch last night.

Great fastball command (75.6% 4-seamer strikes) and a knockout swing-and-miss curveball.  Not a bad combo to have to shut down any lineup.  Nova had it last night and he might have forced his way back into the rotation discussion in the process.

(Pitch plots courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

The Preston Claiborne Formula

(Courtesy of Howard Simmons/NY Daily News)

Preston Claiborne has been quite the unexpected surprise for the Yankees this season.  He's gone from relatively unknown fringe prospect to high-leverage bullpen contributor in just over a month, and he's the owner of one of the more notable current streaks on the team.  In 18.1 IP over his 13 appearances, Claiborne has still yet to walk a batter this season.  For any rookie pitcher with any level of command, that's impressive and it's what has helped push Claiborne up the leverage ladder as he continues to work effectively and earn Joe's trust.  How is a player who was so off the prospect radar, who didn't get nearly the ink that a host of other relievers with "more electric" stuff than he, doing what Claiborne is doing right now?  It's actually pretty simple.

Night & Day With The Fastball

That's CC's 4-seamer location plot for his start against Tampa last week.

That's CC's 4-seamer location plot for his start last night.

It doesn't look like a huge difference but last night's plot is noticeably more concentrated in the lower half of the strike zone.  The majority of his fastballs against Tampa were middle-up, and when you're throwing a low-90s fastball in that part of the strike zone you're going to get beat up.  Last night, CC's average 4-seamer velocity was 91.9 MPH, slightly up from the 91.1 MPH average on 5/26.  That little bit more velocity and better location can make all the difference when you're facing the best hitters on the planet and last night it did.  If this is a continuation of an upward trend with CC's fastball, I don't think we have to worry about him moving forward.  I think he's going to be just fine.

Dirty Dave

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers.  Click to embiggen)

Do you see that?  That's David Robertson's pitch breakdown from his 9th inning appearance last night.  Do see you those percentages?  Do you know what that means?  The term "unhittable" gets thrown around a lot these days anytime a pitcher has a good outing and sometimes it gets used improperly.  Last night was not one of those cases.  D-Rob threw 10 strikes out of 15 pitches last night. All them were swinging and 8 of the 10 were swung at and missed.  Not a single ball got put in play, only 2 had contact made, and D-Rob struck out the side.  Robertson was pretty much unhittable last night, truly unhittable.

I made the comparison to Mo last week and last night was one of those outings that was very reminiscent of Mo at his best.  D-Rob was out there throwing whatever he wanted and the other team was absolutely helpless against him.  It's been a while since Robertson has held down the fireman role, but he was in top form last night.  The inning could have started with the bases loaded and the Orioles still wouldn't have had a chance.  For old time's sake, somebody hit the music!

Want To See What No Command Looks Like?

There you have it.  36 pitches, 17 swings, 0 misses, 6 hits, 2 walks, 7 runs.  Phil Hughes joined a couple of select clubs in historical Yankee and baseball futility last night and it's not difficult to see why.  He was fastball-heavy again, and left almost all of them either right in the middle of the plate or way off the corners.  To make matters most, a lot of those fastballs middle and away as you right to left were thrown to left-handed hitters, putting them in perfect position to extend their arms and make solid contact, which they did.

It'd be easy to try to tie this back to Hughes' issues throwing inside or his need to work his offspeed stuff more, but that would be a moot point in this instance.  His offspeed stuff was just as bad, dropping right over the heart of the hitting zone or way off the corner.  Phil just had nothing last night, and it was the latest in a long line of examples of how frustrating his "hot and cold" career as a starter has gone.  As I mentioned earlier this morning over at IIATMS/TYA, if Hughes has officially settled at his ceiling of #4 starter, he might not be looking at offers as big as once thought after this season.

(Pitch plot courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

Cutter Problems Killing Andy Lately

(Courtesy of the AP)

After allowing just 7 ER in his first 4 starts of the season, and going at least 6 innings in each of those starts, Andy Pettitte has struggled mightily in his last 2 outings, the second of which came yesterday against Oakland.  In 9.1 IP over both starts, Pettitte has allowed 10 ER on 14 H and 5 BB, with just 5 K to show for his effort.  According to Andy, his cutter has been the source of his struggles in the last week.  He just hasn't had any kind of control over the pitch let alone command, and a quick look at the pitch location plot is proof of that: