The Chase Whitley Experiment Has To End In The Second Half

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I can't imagine there was a scenario where Joe envisioned things being so bad in his rotation this year that he had to use Chase Whitley as a regular member of it.  Even the worst of your average worst-case scenarios don't get that bad.  When CC Sabathia joined Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova on the DL in mid-May, that worst-case scenario came about in real life and the Yankees were forced to go to the Whitley well.  The move proved to be a good one for a while.  Whitley allowed 2 ER or less in 6 of his first 7 starts, 3 in the other, and gave the battered rotation a needed boost by eliminating walks and keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Right around the time that he got stretched out to a comfortable starter's pitch count, however, the performance started to sour and sour in a hurry.  Whitley gave up 8 ER in only 3.1 innings against the Blue Jays on June 23rd, his first time facing a team for a second time, and followed that up by allowing 5 in 4+ innings against the Red Sox on June 29th.  1 more bad start against the Twins in early July in which he didn't get out of the 4th inning and Whitley was booted from the rotation only to return on Sunday as an injury replacement again, this time for Masahiro Tanaka.  A scoreless 3 innings to start that game quickly turned to a 3-run 4th inning and another quick hook from Joe to go to his bullpen.  In terms of the souring analogy, Whitley has rapidly gone way past his expiration date as a starter.  If the Yankees are to have even the slightest chance of contending for a Wild Card spot, they cannot allow him to continue as part of the rotation in the second half.

Contemplating Adam Warren In The Rotation

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

A popular topic of conversation right now in Yankeeland is Vidal Nuno's spot in the rotation and whether or not he deserves to keep it.  He did little to help his cause last Saturday when he gave up 3 home runs in a loss to Baltimore, his 11th, 12th, and 13th in 12 starts, and I think Joe would like to remove him if he could.  Unfortunately for him, the organizational starting depth being stretched thin by injuries has left the Yankees without a suitable replacement sitting front and center.

One name that's been talked about a lot as a possibility is Adam Warren.  The former starting pitching prospect has settled nicely into a middle relief and occasional setup role this season after being given a token spot in the Spring Training 5th starter competition.  Warren made the transition from starter to reliever almost full-time last year when he earned himself a bullpen spot out of spring camp, and while he hasn't worked as a starter since 2012 it's reasonable to think he could be at least a slight improvement over Nuno.  The question of swapping Nuno for Warren has been brought up to Joe plenty in the last week and he's admitted that it's something he's considering.  The real question is whether it's the right move to make.

Joe Needs To Keep Lengthening The Leash On His Young Starters

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally posted at IIATMS/TYA)

A funny thing happened this last turn through the rotation.  Joe showed a little more faith in his trio of young replacement starters, allowing all of them to work deeper into the game than they have since taking spots in the rotation, and the world didn't collapse in on itself.  In fact, the Yankees won 2 of the 3 games pitched by David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, and Chase Whitley, and may have snuck out a win in the other game if Joe had put a competitive lineup on the field.

The Yankees have had a ton of problems in their rotation already this year, almost all of them due to injury.  The latest issue has been not getting enough length from the starters and it was an issue partially perpetuated by Joe and his quick hook with these 3.  He knows who his bullpen aces are and he's leaned heavily on them to carry the burden of holding leads rather than leave it in the hands of pitchers in which he doesn't have as much confidence.  This apparent change in philosophy over the last 5 days is something that needs to continue if the Yanks are going to stay afloat into the summer.

Thursday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Rotation Veterans Struh-guh-ling

Since last 8/17, 103 Ps have at least 60 IPs. Kuroda’s 6.07 ERA is the 3rd worst, Sabathia’s 5.16 is 7th #morethanablip? #Yankees
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 1, 2014

Saw this tweet from Joel Sherman and it made me do a double take.  I knew he faltered down the stretch last season, but I didn't realize Hirok's ERA was that bad going back that far.  If anything, I would have actually expected CC's to be the worse one and Hirok's to be in the low 5's.

A few weeks ago, this wouldn't have been a huge problem for the Yankees.  Everybody knew there was a chance that CC's major 2013 regression was the start of something permanent and that Hirok could finally be ticketed for some age-related regression of his own.  With 3 young guys there to pick them up and a solid bullpen, the Yanks should have been able to get by without their top 2 starters pitching like top 2 starters.

Now that Nova and Pineda are out, this is quickly becoming a pretty big deal.  Even though his peripherals suggest he's pitched better than his ERA, both CC and Hirok have ERAs over 5.00 in 11 combined starts.  That isn't going to cut it with Nuno and Phelps taking up the back 40% of the rotation.  Whatever's ailing them - command problems, bad luck, the dreaded bad inning - the Yanks need Hirok and CC to start turning things around and re-establish themselves as reliable, consistent presences in the rotation.

Report: Yanks Prefer Internal Rotation Options Over Garza And Jimenez

The Yankees have been slow to act on the free agent market when it's come to their rotation so far this offseason.  They were able to bring Hiroki Kuroda back for another year, but he's just one piece to a puzzle that's still far from complete.  A new report earlier today makes it seem like one of those pieces might already be on the roster.

According to Bob Klapisch, the Yankees are not big fans of either Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez and would lean towards filling one of their open rotation spots internally before signing either of those 2 top free agents.  This comes as a bit of a surprise after Brian Cashman's earlier "we need 400 innings" comment, which made it sound pretty clear that the Yankees were pursuing multiple starters.

Klapisch did add that the Yankees would still be quick to pounce on Masahiro Tanaka if and when he is posted.  But with no clear time table for that in place, they don't seem to be fond of stepping down to that next level of FA starters should Tanaka not be posted.  We already knew there was going to be a fatal 4-way for the final rotation spot, but if one of those competitors gets slotted into the 4th spot in the rotation, that leaves the back end incredibly weak.  While Garza and  Jimenez are no sure things themselves, I have to think they would be better full-time rotation options than David Phelps or Adam Warren.  We'll see how real this plan is if the Yanks don't end up with Tanaka.

Joe Goes Back To The Hughes Well For Tonight's Start

(Hope Joe's ready to make this walk again.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Guess that bullpen demotion was just a temporary thing.  After only 1 missed start in the rotation - against the Red Sox this past Saturday - and a pair of meaningless relief appearances, Phil Hughes will re-replace David Huff in the rotation and make the start in tonight's series finale against the O's.

Joe' motivation for making the swap again is questionable at best.  This is the same Phil Hughes who was deemed no longer worthy of his rotation spot after a crappy appearance against the slap-hitting Toronto lineup and the same Phil Hughes who has given up 7 ER on 14 hits (5 of them home runs) in 9 total IP over 2 starts against Baltimore this season.  His weaknesses as a pitcher are what the Baltimore lineup thrives against and if he wasn't getting the job done against inferior competition why would be worthy of essentially getting a promotion against better competition?

Hughes Out, Huff In

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Guess those 1.1 scoreless innings he tossed on Monday wasn't enough to save his job, huh?  Joe announced last night that Phil Hughes will be removed from the starting rotation and moved to the bullpen for the rest of the season and David Huff will be taking Hughes' place in the rotation this Saturday against Boston.  This comes on the heels of Huff's latest solid long relief appearance, also on Monday, and ends weeks of growing speculation about how much longer Joe would stick with Hughes.  Time wasn't on his side after the Yanks failed to find any good offers for him at the deadline, and after another month of mostly poor starts Joe finally decided he had seen enough.

Timing Of Latest Injury Setbacks Leaves Rotation Dangerously Thin

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It was another poor outing for Phil Hughes yesterday, the poorest and shortest he's had since his 0.2-inning meltdown against the Mariners in May.  In his last 3 starts, Hughes has completed just 12.1 innings and has given up 13 R (10 ER) on 19 H in those innings with 8 BB to just 6 K.  His leash with Joe has gotten shorter to the point that were it a literal leash it would probably be choking him to death as soon as he took the mound, and his inability to work efficiently and deeply into games is becoming a burden on the bullpen.  Hughes needed 71 pitches yesterday to retire just 8 batters.

Combined with the unadulterated putridity that has been CC Sabathia's last 4 starts, suddenly the Yankees are rolling with an even worse rotation than they had a few weeks ago.  The group that needed to turn things around in concert with the offense if the Yankees were going to make a serious playoff charge has become an alternating "all or nothing" collection of some of the best and worst pitching we've seen this season.  For every great start Hirok or Nova goes out and pitches, Sabathia and Hughes pitch one equally as bad if not worse a day or 2 later.

Rotation Not Exactly Pulling Its Weight Right Now

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Just a day and change away from the trade deadline, adding a bat is still the Yankees' top priority.  Adding multiple bats would be an even better priority.  The Yankee lineup is still terribly weak after the Alfonso Soriano trade, not nearly good enough to be competitive night in and night out.  With time running out for the internal help to come back and make a real impact, and a bench full of MiL spare parts, the Yankees need to be aggressive in pursuing options to seriously improve their offense.  As unrealistic as it seems given the way they've played the last 2 months, a 2.5 game Wild Card deficit is not insurmountable.  With little developing on the market for Hughes and Joba, the Steinbrenners have no choice but to buy just to keep up appearances that they're trying to contend.

If the Yankees are going to have any chance of fighting for a Wild Card spot, they need a better offense.  No question about that.  But they could also use a turnaround from the starting rotation.  Over the last 4 weeks, it has slowly devolved into the lineup's co-weakness and become just as big a hindrance to winning games as the lineup's inability to score runs.

Rotation Issues Creating An Extra Need For Middle Relief, An Opportunity For Young Pitchers

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Last Tuesday, in light of the middle relief corps' poor start, I questioned the decision making in letting pitchers like David Aardsma and the still injured at the time Clay Rapada go in favor of guys like Shawn Kelley and Cody Eppley.  I also quickly questioned the logic in keeping the team's top two spot starters, David Phelps and Adam Warren, together in the bullpen as long relievers rather than sending one of them down to stay stretched out in case the Yankees needed a spot start or two.  The middle relief issue has faded to the background a bit as the Yankees have gone on a nice little 6-1 run since their rough start, and Eppley has been banished to Triple-A thanks to the return of Phil Hughes to the rotation.  But as that rotation has come together and everybody has gone through at least twice, the need for strong middle relief, particularly long relief, has continued to be put on display.

Should Kuroda Be Starting Today If He Isn't 100%?

(Ouch, bro.  Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/Daily News)

It seems like a reasonable question to ask given this comment from Hiroki Kuroda to George King of The NY Post yesterday about his bruised middle finger:

"I would be lying if I said it wasn't bothering me.  At the same time I have to deal with it.''

That statement pretty much answers the, "... if he isn't 100%" part of the question and answers it with a clear answer of "no, he isn't 100%." Which brings me back to the first part of the question.  It's the second turn through the rotation in the seventh game of the season, and Kuroda is being sent out to start with an injury to his pitching hand that caused him to have trouble gripping the ball, locating his pitches, and resulted in his removal from the game last Wednesday.  He's basically admitted that the injury has not fully healed and that he doesn't know how it's going to affect him today.  Does that make anybody else as nervous as it makes me?

I know Kuroda made it through his Friday bullpen without any major issues, and he's got Adam Warren handcuffed to him again, which is probably why Joe and Cash feel comfortable letting him start.  I'd just feel a lot better about skipping Kuroda for a trip and starting Warren if that gives his finger enough time to fully heal.

Rainout Effects On Tonight And Beyond

(Good thing the tarp was out to protect against the rain that wasn't falling.  Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankees have already gotten screwed enough by the scheduling of this year's postseason.  They started the ALDS on the road despite winning their division and having the best record in the American League; they faced a compressed ALCS schedule that could have required them to use a 5th starter.  So I guess it's only fitting to have them lose the one positive thing they still had going for them thanks to last night's rainout.

Personally, I thought it made more sense to start the game, try to get as much in as they could before the rain, and then wait it out and finish late night/early morning.  It would have cost both teams their starters, but with the forecast in Detroit not looking much better tonight or tomorrow, at least they would have had a better chance of getting the game in.  In any case, the Yanks and Tigers will try again tonight, and with CC still the scheduled starter the advantage is still Yankees.  But there are a lot more negatives that came with last night's cancellation than positives.

Concerned About Carsten

(Looks like a guy searching for answers just like we are.  Courtesy of the AP)

After his latest subpar outing, I was convinced that my worries about the condition of CC Sabathia's elbow were going to be proven correct and that we were going to be told sometime in the next few days that he'd been feeling some discomfort and was going back for another MRI.  That is, until I read Mike Eder's PITCHf/x diagnosis of CC's performance since coming off the DL for the second time.  Mike's breakdown of CC's pitch stats and mechanics lent no support to the theory that CC is pitching at less than 100% right now, and he came to the conclusion that CC's issues are more likely attributable to just some bad luck.  That should have alleviated my and everybody's concerns, as any kind of serious elbow injury to the team's ace would be the worst possible news.  So then why don't I feel any better?

Life Without CC: Part Deux

(I feel ya, CC.  I'm pretty bummed about it too.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Despite the idiotic argument of "yeah, but he hasn't been pitching like an ace this season" coming from the contingent of mouthbreathing Yankee fans and writers who have nothing better to do than stir the pot, there's no denying that CC Sabathia is the best and most important starting pitcher on the Yankee staff.  When he's healthy and in the rotation, a 4some of CC, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes can be pretty formidable, even with Nova and Hughes pitching as inconsistently as they are right now.  When he's not, a top 3 of Kuroda, Nova, and Hughes is a bit suspect, especially with Nova and Hughes pitching as inconsistently as they are right now, and the lack of depth on the back end becomes a little more exposed.  That's why it's frustrating to see CC go back on the DL for a second time in less than 2 months after never once landing on it in his first 3 years in pinstripes.

Nova Has Fallen Off The Cliff

(Right now he really is Ivan The Terrible)

If you want to say it was the outing before, I'm not going to argue with you, but for my money last night's start was the culmination of Ivan Nova's season-long descent into shittiness.  It's a topic that hasn't gotten as much coverage as it rightfully should if you look at his numbers, mainly because there have always been bigger injury-related stories dominating the headlines or the team still managed to win the games in which he was pitching, but after July's problems and August's implosion it's making its rightful way to the front pages.

What made last night the culmination in my eyes was the fact that, for once, it wasn't a barrage of extra base hits off and over the wall that did Nova in.  Oh no, it was an endless string of well-struck singles through, over, and around the infield right into the waiting outfield gaps.  8 out of 11 batters that came to the plate in the 5th and 6th innings got base hits, 5 on fastballs, 2 on sliders, 1 on a hanging curve.  It's been easy to say that it was just the extra bases that were causing the problems and the results, and that a little BABIP luck would help even things out.  But last night killed that excuse and put the period on the end of the "Ivan Nova just hasn't been good at all this season" sentence.

Too Many Extra Base Hits

You can basically name any part of the game of baseball and the Yankees aren't doing it well right now.  It's hard to remember a time when the team has collectively played this poorly for an extended period of time, and for once I'm actually glad I don't have the ability to watch them on TV every night.  Whether you accept them or not, there are some quasi-viable excuses for the poor performance from certain groups.  The lineup as a whole is old and dealing with the un-fixable problem of age-related decline, and the bullpen has been decimated by injuries and burdened by a heavy workload.

The starting rotation, however, really doesn't have an excuse to fall back on to explain themselves.  Losing Michael Pineda's services before they even had a chance to see them sucked, but they still have a healthy CC Sabathia, a healthy Hiroki Kuroda, 2 young guys in their primes in Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, and the recently-added Andy Pettitte, who looks like he's got plenty left in the tank.  And yet the Yankee rotation currently ranks 26th in MLB in team ERA at 4.93 and 28th in FIP at 4.60.  I've touched briefly on the fact that Nova and Kuroda are getting absolutely killed on balls in play going for extra bases when they miss in the strike zone in a couple posts, but in looking at the bigger picture it seems that the XBH problem is a rotation-wide one.

I Hate It When I'm Wrong

Me on Monday:

"Guys are keeping runners off base, keeping the ball down in the zone, working efficiently and pitching deeper into games, and limiting damage by getting more groundball outs and big strikeouts when they need them. Nova starts another turn tonight... .  Hopefully he can continue this stretch of solid starting pitching performances and help inch his team closer to the top of the division."

Yankee starters since then:

16.1 IP, 23 H, 16 ER, 9 BB, 16 K, 5 HR, 0-2 Record

Did I jinx it again or did I jinx it again?  It wouldn't be the first time.  So sorry, I guess.

The Rotation Is Killing Me, Smalls

For once, it looked like the Yankees were in a position to prove the old adage of "you can never have too much pitching" wrong. It was late in Spring Training and they had no less than 10 guys who could make a legitimate claim to being worthy of a spot in their 2012 starting rotation. Some were younger, some were old, some threw harder than others, and some were just plain better than others, but this season certainly appeared as though it was going to be one, the first one in a while, where the struggles and question marks in the rotation were not going to dominate the headlines in the local press. 4 weeks into the season and all of that depth and talent has been wiped away, replaced by the same concerns over guys not pitching up to the level they were expected to and the same questions surrounding the depth of the group moving forward. The Yankee rotation has a 5.89/4.65/3.74 slash line right now, the ERA ranking 2nd to last in Major League Baseball and the FIP ranking 26th, and have only 6 games where they've pitched 7 innings or more combined. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

CC Sabathia, outside of a few misplaced fastballs up in the zone in his first 2 starts, has been the CC Sabathia we've seen over the past 3 seasons, and a look at his peripherals makes one very confident that he could become even better than his usual self as the weather continues to warm up. But beyond him and his spot at the top, the rest of the rotation is once again a sea of unknowns.

Andy Pettitte: From Luxury To Necessity

(Courtesy of The AP)

Andy Pettitte wasn't supposed to be icing on the cake for the rotation this season, he was supposed to be the sprinkles on the ice cream that sat on top of the icing on the cake.  For the better part of spring camp after his signing was made official, all the talk was about how the Yankees were 7 deep in the rotation, 10 deep if you counted Phelps-Mitchell-Warren, and a dozen deep if you wanted to throw ManBan and Betances into the mix.  I myself discussed the idea of what should or shouldn't be done with Pettitte if he's ready to pitch and the rotation is solid.

How quickly things can change, huh?  Suddenly the Yankee rotation is looking just as weak and potentially just as thin as it has for the past couple seasons.  Michael Pineda is on the shelf for at least the next calendar year, Hiroki Kuroda has been up and down in his first 4 starts, Phil Hughes has been downright awful, and Freddy Garcia's next start will determine whether he gets labeled "more awful" than Hughes or "not quite as awful" as Hughes.

And still lingering in the background is Andy, fresh off his most recent rehab start on Wednesday, when he allowed 3 ER on 7 hits in 5 innings of work at Double-A.  After that game, he expressed some displeasure with himself and his performance for the first time since coming back, leading to questions about just how many more starts he will need to make before he is declared ready for the rotation.  Whenever that declaration is made, Andy will now not just be expected to waltz in on the pinstriped carpet and provide some innings here or there while people flock to take pictures of him; he's going to have to pitch well.

If Hughes and Garcia continue to struggle, Andy is going to be looked at to provide length and quality innings to solidify the back end of the rotation.  And while that certainly won't fluster a professional of his caliber with his track record, it's probably not what most of us were expecting to say about his return.  Andy was the de facto stopper for the rotation late in the 2009 season and through the World Series run.  He might have to take on a similar role with the 2012 rotation in May.

Phrustrated With Phil

(Courtesy of The AP)

Whether you put any weight into the numbers or not, Phil Hughes certainly looked like a good pitcher in Spring Training, the type of pitcher Yankee fans have been waiting to see for years now.  All the pieces of his game that have been missing at times and present at others- the velocity, the control, the command, the health, the changeup- were all starting to come together at the same time and it appeared that Hughes was poised to get back on the track he was on in the first half of 2010.  Since the games have started to count, however, it's been back to business as usual with Hughes, and that's not a good thing.