Matt Thornton Getting Put On Notice

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(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Hey, Matt.  You got a minute, bud?  I wanted to talk to you about something.  I know you're still the #1 lefty in the bullpen right now and the only one Joe would consider going to in a key lefty-lefty matchup situation.  And I know it may look like you're maintaining that "kinda-sorta pretty good/mostly unlucky" level you were at last month to the untrained eye, so you think you shouldn't have anything to worry about.  But here's a word to the wise.  Don't get too comfortable, brother.  Because the Yanks are making moves to find a replacement for you, whether you realize it or not.

Matt Thornton: Ineffective Or Unlucky?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There have been plenty of problems in the Yankee bullpen in the first 6 weeks.  One that isn't getting a lot of attention is the performance of Matt Thornton.  Brought in as the lone free agent reliever to replace Boone Logan, Thornton didn't inspire confidence that he had a lot left with his ST effort (7 H, 3 ER, 2 K in 4.0 IP), and so far in the regular season he's been pretty meh.  In 6.2 innings pitched spread over 16 appearances, Thornton owns a 5.40/3.85/5.02 tripleslash with only 5 strikeouts and 3 walks.  He's been perfectly mediocre despite mostly being used correctly in short outings by Joe, but has it really been all his fault?

Cause For Concern With Matt Thornton

(Courtesy of FanGraphs.  Click to enlarge)

That graph shows Matt Thornton's career K/9 trends.  As you can see, it's broken down by K/9 against right-handed and left-handed hitters and as you can see, both of those lines have been trending in the wrong direction for the last 3 seasons.

Part of what makes Thornton a bit of a risky signing is that major decrease in K rate he's experienced since 2010.  The loss of swing-and-miss stuff has made him much more susceptible to getting tuned up by right-handed hitters and since 2010 that's exactly what's happened.  In 2010 righties posted a .254 wOBA against him.  In 2011 that increased to .291, in 2012 it was .302, and this past season it was .370.

Thornton is no longer the dynamic reliever he was against hitters from both sides of the plate.  He's devolved into a lefty specialist only and there's reason to be concerned that his effectiveness against lefty hitters could start to deteriorate as well based on his downtrend in strikeouts.  It hasn't happened yet (.280 wOBA vs. lefties in 2013), but it could.  Righties have figured Thornton out now that he's not throwing the same smoke he used to.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for lefties to start doing the same.

BREAKING: Yanks Sign Lefty Reliever Matt Thornton

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Well there's some unexpected bullpen help.  As first reported by Jack Curry, the Yankees have agreed to a 2-year/$7 million deal with lefty specialist Matt Thornton.  The deal is pending a physical of course, and should he pass it Thornton will replace Boone Logan as the team's primary LOOGY out of the 'pen in 2014.

Thornton, 37, was one of if not THE premiere lefty specialist in baseball as recently as 2011 with the White Sox.  He struggled for them early last year before being dealt to the Red Sox at the trade deadline and performing much better.  Overall he pitched to a 3.74/4.04/4.13 slash line in 43.1 IP in 2013 with a .280 wOBA against from left-handed hitters.  For his career lefties have hit .229/.296/.350 against him in 249.2 IP.

Thornton comes with a pretty fair amount of risk as an older reliever.  His K rate has decreased every year since 2010, from 33.9% then to just 16.0% this past season.  That's partially due to his increased ineffectiveness against righties, but as a LOOGY he should still be above-average and he comes at a much more team-friendly cost than Logan would have.  At the very least, it's an early-season upgrade over Cesar Cabral if Thornton can maintain his effectiveness against same-side hitters.

P.S.- For shits and giggles, here's my anti-Thornton rant from the 2011 offseason.  At that time it didn't make a lot of sense to trade away prospects for a guy with $12 million still owed to him.  Today, for just $7 mil and no prospects, it's a much better deal.