Catching Up With The 2014 AB4AR Top 30

(Do it, Luis.  Do the damn thing.  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

The completion of the draft marks an unofficial checkpoint of sorts for the Minor League season.  With a fresh crop of players ready to join the organizational ranks, start their pro careers, and insert themselves into the prospect conversation, the timing is perfect to look back at the crop of pre-existing prospects and gauge how they've performed over the first few months.

The 2013-2014 edition of the AB4AR Top 30 was released on the final week of January.  A lot has happened to those 30 players since then, some good, like Rob Refsnyder's Double-A breakout, and some bad, like Jose Campos' Tommy John Surgery.  Here's a quick check-in on all 30 prospects to see where they sit and how they're trending towards the second half of this season.

The Complete 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30

(Courtesy of the AP)

It's Sunday, which means it's the end of Prospect Week 2014.  I didn't get to quite as many tools rankings as I wanted to, but the most important part of the week, the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30, was covered in full.  As I mentioned earlier, this year's list had a high amount of turnover, almost half of last year's Top 30 was replaced by new guys.  On the one hand, that may say something about the Yankees' inability to develop the talent they draft.  On the other, it may mean a turnaround of that trend is on the horizon with a big influx of new, young talent.  If you missed any of this week's Top 30 portions, or if you just want to peruse through them again, here's your chance.  From 30-1, the entire 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30:

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

(Courtesy of MiLB.com)

This is it, the top 10.  The cream that's risen to the top of the Yankee farm system.  For the first time in a few years, it feels like the organization's top prospects are actually close to breaking into the Majors.  There's high-level pitching, a lot of high-level hitting, and a smattering of lower-level guys with major upside to balance things out.  From seeing some of the mainstream top 10 lists that have already come out, I can tell you that mine's pretty different and there are more than a few names on the AB4AR list that didn't show up anywhere on the others.  I stand by my selections though, and truly believe that these are the 10 best players in the Yankee farm system right now.  If you missed either of the first 2 days, here's Part I here and Part II here.  After the jump, the third and final part of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 20-11

(Courtesy of MiLB.com)

10 down, 20 to go.  Yesterday marked the first official installment of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 and it was a wide range of players.  From high-level guys who were relative unknowns just a year ago to low-level guys for whom the sky is the proverbial limit, there was a little bit of everything in the bottom third.  Today we move into the middle third of the rankings and as you'd expect everything is a little better in this group.  There's still a nice mix of new faces and holdovers from last year, but the new faces are ones that put up big numbers to earn their spot and, in some cases, did it at higher levels than rookie ball.  The familiar faces all experienced some kind of leveling out of their production in 2013, but not enough to totally wash away their prospect status.  After the jump, dive right in to the middle third of this year's Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 30-21

(Courtesy of Bryan Green's Flickr page)

I'm pretty sure I've used some variation of this as the intro the last 2 times I've started officially releasing my prospect rankings, but screw it, I'm doing it again.  After all the games, all the injuries, all the research, all the ranking, re-ranking, and re-re-ranking, all the hints dropped, all the plugs at the end of old posts, all the Facebook reminders, and the last 2 days of lead-ins, we've finally come to this moment, the unveiling of the first third of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.  This first group has a lot of new faces and a few familiar ones.  It's got players still scratching the surface of their potential, players still struggling to reach their potential, and players whose potential could already be shrinking.  After the jump, spots 30-21 of this year's AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Just Missed The Cut

(Courtesy of MLB.com)

Yesterday I looked back at the baker's dozen from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who will not be a part of the 2013-2014 edition.  Now that we're done living in the past, today we can start to look towards the future with the 5 players who missed the cut for this year's Top 30.  For all the talk about how bad the Yankee farm system is right now, the one thing they do have is depth.  More than 1 of the guys who didn't make my top 30 cut are going to show up on other prospect lists around the Yankosphere and there are a couple who could become top 10-15 guys if they stay on track.  After the jump, the 5 players who just missed making the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Those We've Lost

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

I thought there was high turnover from the first Top 30 to last year's when 9 new players made the cut.  From last year to this year the turnover was even higher, 13 players to be exact.  That's almost half of last year's list gone and replaced by new faces.  That seemed high to me at first, but when I considered all the factors that led to the high turnover rate it's not as drastic as it seems.

There are a handful of players no longer eligible for this year's list because they're on other teams and there were multiple players who were no longer eligible due to Major League service time in 2013.  When you eliminate them, the number of guys who dropped off due to age and/or subpar production this year is reasonable.  When you consider the influx of young talent that joined the system this year in the form of 3 1st round picks and a healthy collection of young international players, the higher turnover becomes more than reasonable.  After the jump, the 13 players who, for a number of reasons, won't be appearing on the 2013-2014 Top 30.

Welcome To AB4AR Prospect Week 2014

(The original #1.  The Jesus)

In late December of 2011, I was home for Christmas and bored at my parents' house during the week so I decided to put together my first top Yankee prospects list.  The inaugural AB4AR Top 30 admittedly wasn't very good, but going through the process of doing it opened my eyes to the world of prospect evaluation and I think it made me much smarter about how I follow and rank prospects.

Which brings us to today, the start of AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 and the unveiling of the 3rd edition of the AB4AR Top 30.  If you followed Prospect Week last year, you know that the format has already been changed a little bit but the overall format for the next 5 days will stay the same.  Today I'll go back and look at all the players from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who didn't make the 2013-2014 edition, tomorrow I'll focus on the players who just missed the cut this year, and Wednesday through Friday will be the actual release of this year's Top 30 in 10-player chunks.

If you're not familiar with AB4AR or my prospect evaluation process, I invite you to read this post I did last year explaining my system.  Long story short, I tend to value consistent production and advancement through the system more than just raw tools and high ceiling.  I also think there's more value in a lower ceiling player at a higher level of the system than a "toolsy" 17 or 18-year-old in rookie ball, especially when that player plays a position of need for the Major League club.  To further familiarize yourself with the AB4AR system, feel free to check out last year's AB4AR Top 30 as well.

Time permitting this week, I'll try to work on some posts on player tools and who I think has the best in the system but the real focus is the 5 major posts mentioned above.  Check back this afternoon for the first one on the group of players who fell off this year's Top 30 and welcome again one and all to AB4AR Prospect Week.

The Complete 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30

(Courtesy of Wade Spees/postandcourier.com)

Well it's been fun, but this post will mark the official end of AB4AR Prospect Week for 2013.  Now I have to come up with some ideas for what to write about next week, so for a simple, straightforward, clean ending to this week, here's the entire Top 30 list in order, with links to each of the individual write-ups in case you wanted to go back and pick out all the dumb things I said for later in the season.

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30:

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

 (Courtesy of Tim Priddy/Four Seam Images)

It's all been building to this.  The past 54 calendar weeks since the first AB4AR Top 30.  Suffice it to say this is arguably going to be the greatest moment of this year, and 2013 is only 17 days old.  The last group of players, the top 10, of the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 is released today.

From the new kids on the block with upside to the guys transition through the levels to this crop, each group of 10 has had some defining characteristics and the top 10 here is no different.  This group of players consists of upper-level guys right on the doorstep of making the Major League roster, some of them with the chance to be long-term fixtures at their positions, and also the elite group of lower-level guys who are fixing to be future All Stars at their positions.  If they aren't traded, the next core group of homegrown players could be sitting right within this top 10, and many of them play positions at which the Yankees are going to have a need in the next couple of years.

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 20-11

 (Courtesy of Beverly Schaefer/The Times of Trenton)

As we move forward from the first third of this year's rankings, the faces start to become a little more familiar.  9 of the 10 players included in the middle section of this year's Top 30 were on last year's list.  They also start to become a bit more experienced, with 9 of the 10 having played in a full-season league last year and 7 of the 10 playing in at least 1 game at the Double-A level or higher.  There's slightly less upside in this group than in the group of 10 from yesterday, or at least upside that's a little better known, but there is also more polish and polish is what I'm looking for to know that a player is on the right track.  After the jump, check out positions 20-11 in the 2012-213 AB4AR Top 30.

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 30-21

 (The next big thing?  Courtesy of Josh Norris)

Well I think I've dragged the suspense out long enough.  No more explanations of my thought process, no more looking back at the guys who aren't on the list anymore, and no more teasing with the guys who didn't make it.  It's time to start getting into the meat and potatoes of the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30, and that starts today with spots 30-21.  In a slight change from last year, I'm splitting the actual Top 30 up into 3 10-spot posts and today we'll tackle the bottom 10.

The bottom third of this year's Top 30 is the place where you'll find a lot of new faces, be they players who just started their pro careers in 2012, players who just worked themselves onto the prospect radar, or players who were on the fringe and did enough last year to force themselves onto the list.  It's also a place where you'll find guys who dropped in the rankings from their positions last year, mainly because of their failure to progress and improve upon their 2011 production.  It's a collection of unknown potential and unrealized potential.  So without further adieu, here are the first 10 spots in this year's AB4AR Top 30.

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Just Missed The Cut

 (A bridesmaid again in 2013.  Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MLB.com)

The bad part about any top prospect list, be it 10, 15, or 30 players deep, is that there are always going to be some good, worthy guys who don't make the cut.  That was the case last year with the first edition of the AB4AR Top 30 and it held true this year as well.  Truth be told, it was a pretty big chore to not only figure out who made the list and who didn't, but also to figure out which of those players who missed the cut were most worthy of these 5 also-ran spots.  There is a lot of depth in the Yankee system right now, don't forget that, and the group of players who failed to crack this year's Top 30 are just as good a representation of that as the 30 who made the list.  After the jump, check out the 5 guys who fell just short of cracking the Top 30 this year.

2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Those We've Lost

 (From #1 in our hearts to negative WAR in Seattle.  So long, sweet prince)

Before we jump into this year's AB4AR Top 30, it's only appropriate to look back at the guys from last year's inaugural Top 30 who fell off the list.  That's right, people.  I'm teasing you with some prospect foreplay before getting to the main event.  You know you love it.

As I stated last night, last year's list was admittedly full of some big misses on my part, and some of those misses have been corrected by not having them re-appear on this year's list.  But there were also some guys who played their way off the list, some guys who were let go by the organization, some who were traded away, and one who graduated to the Majors with a solid rookie season.  There was high turnover from last year to this year, with 9 players from the first Top 30 failing to make this year's edition.  After the jump, check out who those players are, what led to their dismissal/removal from this year's rankings, and what's in store for them in 2013.

AB4AR Top 30 Introduction: The Method To My Madness

The beauty and the fun of prospect ranking is that everybody has their own system.  There's a standard set of criteria that everybody has to consider when evaluating players and deciding where to rank them, but how they consider them and what criteria they put more weight on is what ultimately determines the differences between one person's top prospect list and another, and what sparks the conversation and debate that we all love to have about prospects.

Before we dive into the 2012-2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30, I thought it would be a good idea to give some explanation on the system I use and why I use it.  It's mainly so you the readers know why I ranked guys the way I did, but it's also partially for me.  I thought I knew what I was doing last year when I took my first stab at a top 30, and it turned out that I didn't know as much as I thought I did about some players.  This year, I wanted to be more thorough in my evaluation of each player, and more consistent in the way I followed my system.  I spent the entire season working on these rankings, and revised them often as the season progressed based on how each player performed against my set of criteria.

I think the list I've come up with this year is much better than the first edition, and much more representative of my ranking system and the criteria I put more weight on when evaluating guys.  So to give everybody an idea of my thought process and what's most important to me when ranking prospects, here's a quick explanation of my personal ranking system.