The Obligatory Giancarlo Stanton Dream Post

(Swoon... Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

When he fills out his lineup card for tonight's series opener against Toronto, Joe will have multiple options for right field.  He can play a 40-year-old lefty hitter with a noodle bat and deteriorated defensive skills who can slap some singles here and there but do little else.  He can play a 38-year-old former power hitter who's apparently lost his bat speed and power to the degree that he's nothing more than a platoon bat at the moment.  Or he could roll the dice and throw his 37-year-old projected starting right fielder back out there even though he has a bone spur in his throwing elbow that caused him to miss 3 weeks and has only recently started throwing a ball again in an effort to limit the stress on the elbow.

Appealing options, aren't they?  Safe to say the Yankees' plan to patch together right field for a year or 2 is already all but crumbled and fallen apart.  Both Ichiro Suzuki and Alfonso Soriano are in the final years of their respective contracts, and while one or both of them may try to stick around next year, I highly doubt they'll be doing it as Yankees.  Beltran, with what he's shown when he has been in the outfield and now the elbow problem to consider, could be transitioned to full-time DH duty as soon as this season.  That would leave another void in right, a position the team has struggled to fill with a reliable option since letting Nick Swisher walk.  Enter Giancarlo Stanton.

So What's The Deal With This Suk-Min Yoon Guy?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Masahiro Tanaka continues to be the most sought after international free agent pitcher, and justifiably so, but the Yankees aren't limiting their international pitching options to just him.  While dishing a harsh slice of truth on the state of the Yankees' reputation in the free agent world last week, Scott Boras also did some promotional work for a new client of his, 27-year-old right-handed pitcher Suk-Min Yoon from South Korea.

If you've never heard of Yoon, don't fret.  You're not alone.  He's been well under the MLB radar for most baseball fans and writers despite being one of the best pitchers in the Korean Baseball Organization for years.  His team, the Kia Tigers, did not allow him to go through the MLB posting process after the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and so this offseason he's working to finally become available as a traditional free agent.  He's obviously an unknown commodity in the MLB landscape, and he does have some legitimate concerns attached to him.  But for the right price, he could be a low-risk/high-reward asset for the Yankees to add to next season's pitching competition.

That's Quite The Shopping List

The offseason still hasn't officially started, and already the list of potential free agents the Yankees are reported to have interest in is pretty long:

• Carlos Beltran
• Brian McCann
• Masahiro Tanaka
• Jhonny Peralta
• Stephen Drew
• Paul Maholm
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Suk-Min Yoon (Korean RHP)
• Ordisamer Despaigne (Cuban RHP)
• Seung-Hwan Oh (Korean RHP)

And that's not even counting the handful of their own pending free agents who they have to make qualifying offer decisions on or the larger group of arbitration-eligible players.  Lotta decisions that need to be made and a lotta moving parts to this offseason.  Somehow I don't think that supposed $300 million is going to cover everybody...

There's Mutual Interest Between The Yanks And Beltran Because Of Course There Is

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

To say that yesterday's news of there being mutual interest between the Yankees and free agent to be Carlos Beltran was unsurprising would be a gross understatement. My reaction to Mark Feinsand's report was a pretty simple, "duh."  The Yanks and Beltran have been loosely linked for almost 10 years now, and Cash is still probably kicking himself for not getting a deal done with Beltran back when he was in his prime in 2005.  Now that Beltran is 36 going on 37, he's much more in line with the current Yankee business model.  He's a former All Star on the downside of his career looking for one last contract and the Yankees are the safest of havens for those types of players.  The only thing surprising about this story is that it came out this early while Beltran was still playing in the postseason.

Qualifying Offer Candidates: Yay Or Nay

While it's still a month away, eventually the offseason will start and the Yankees will be face-to-face with a buttload of decisions to make for 2014.  They're losing a lot of players to retirement and free agency, and with the payroll budget and A-Rod's suspension uncertainty hanging over them it could be quite the uphill battle to replace, rebuild, restock, and re-up for next season.  One of the first round of decisions they'll have to make is whether to extend qualifying offers to some of their own free agents.  With the QO value expected to be around $14 million, that's a significant chunk of change to tack onto the payroll for a team on a budget.  The Yankees are going to have to weigh the value of that salary and anticipated production against the possible draft pick.

Now we're not talking about every free agent here.  Obviously the Yankees aren't going to make offers to Mo or Andy because they know they're retiring.  I'm also pretty sure they won't be making offers to guys like Kevin Youkilis and Boone Logan because they're nowhere near being worth that kind of money.  There are 4 players who stand out as potential candidates.  After the jump, my decisions on whether to make each of those 4 a qualifying offer.

Goodbye To Hughes

(Ahh, the good old days... )

It's been a homestand full of finales and goodbyes, and it continues tonight when Phil Hughes takes the mound in place of CC Sabathia.  After having the rotation rearranged to remove him from what could have been an important series, Phil gets to step back on the Yankee Stadium mound one more time in what will in all likelihood be his final appearance as a New York Yankee.  Unsurprisingly, there's no pregame ceremony planned.  With the way Hughes' season has devolved, there's almost no point in even giving him the ball in the first place.

Any Concern About D-Rob's Workload?

(Should the Yanks be worried about making it rain on The Fireman?)

With the Yankees standing to lose a few of their recent top homegrown players to free agency this offseason, Andrew Mearns of Pinstriped Bible looked ahead to the future free agency of 2 more players who fit that mold yesterday.  Both David Robertson and Brett Gardner are due to become free agents after the 2014 season and Mearns brought up the idea of re-signing them to team-friendly deals before they hit the open market, questioning how risky a move it would be on the Yankees' part to do so.

Gardner is a risk for obvious reasons, but D-Rob has never struck me as much of one.  He's still just 28 and will be at the start of next season.  He's never had much of a problem with arm injuries.  And he's been as reliable a reliever in front of Mo as there's been in the setup pool in baseball for the last few seasons.  But what about his workload? D-Rob was unavailable last night after pitching in 5 of the last 7 days, and he's on pace to reach new career highs in appearances and innings pitched.  Is there anything in D-Rob's seasonal workload totals to be concerned about moving forward?

Yanks Reportedly Make An Offer To Cano

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

The walls of the strict Yankee "no contract extensions" policy started to crumble recently when Hal Steinbrenner confirmed the team had been in talks with Robinson Cano and his agent Scott Boras about a new deal.  Those walls continue to come crashing down after yesterday's report of an actual contract offer being given to Cano.  Dan Barbarisi had the story, tweeting that Cash himself confirmed a "significant offer" had been made.  It almost goes without saying that the Yankees' definition of "significant" and Boras' definition in this case will be drastically different, but it's another step in the right direction towards bringing Cano back.

More importantly, it's another big sign that the Yankee front office has smartened up when it comes to doing business on a budget.  Waiting until Cano hit the open market was going to force them to shell out more money and more years if they really wanted to keep him, and chances are that's still what's going to happen with Boras at the controls.  But by continuing to negotiate with Cano and make contract offers, the Yankees get themselves a bigger headstart again their free agent competition, show Cano they are serious about wanting him back, and give themselves a better chance of working out a deal closer to what they're comfortable with than they would have had if they waited until October/November to start talking.

Joba's Latest Words Signal Future Intentions

There's been plenty of talk about what the future has in store for upcoming free agents like Robbie Cano, Phil Hughes, and C-Grand, but there's another upcoming FA who's not getting a lot of attention, at least not until yesterday.  Joba Chamberlain's contract is also up after this season, and he made it pretty clear what his intentions are with his comments about his ability to pitch as a starter again.  Joba has been a full-time reliever with the Yankees since 2010, and at this point there's no chance they make the attempt to convert him back to a starter.  Joba's best chance to get that chance again is being signed by a team willing to at least try him out as a starting pitcher and his statements yesterday certainly seemed like Joba trying to set that precedent early and up his value on the open market.

The timing of Joba's comments can be called into question, and I did like both Joe and Cash subliminally pointing that out in their responses to Joba, but at the same time I can't really get on Joba for saying what he said.  He's 27 years old, hitting free agency for the first time in his career, and doesn't have much of a resume to show off in an attempt to get a big deal.  The Yankees and their handling/mishandling of the early years of his career are a contributing factor to that light resume.  Their commitment to letting him start was always weak at best, and even though his career starter splits aren't Strasburg-ian, a 4.18/4.27/4.17 slash over 221.2 IP in 43 starts as a 23/24-year-old is hardly a good reason to pull the plug.  Joba' has the right to speak his mind and do what he feels is in his best interests, same as the team has used him to fit their best interests.

Some are going to spin this as Joba not being focused on this season and not being focused on the team, but I don't see it that way.  If anything, I think this is a sign that Joba is more focused and feeling better than he has in years.  He's healthy again and he knows his opportunities to prove himself this season are going to be limited.  It's no fun thinking about the prospect of him leaving for another club, but if this is the first step towards a return of the flame-throwing, fist-pumping, post-K-screaming Joba, I'm OK with it.

David Price Is An Idiot

The light at the end of the $189 million tunnel for us Yankee fans is the prospect of the Yankees getting back to their spending ways once they dip under the luxury tax threshold and reset the penalties.  One of their big targets in the years to come is going to be David Price, the Rays' 27-year-old Cy Young winner. Price is still years away from free agency, but could be at risk of following James Shields out the door in a cost-controlling trade before he becomes too rich for Tampa's blood.  Price talked to Jon Morosi  about that possibility yesterday, and mentioned the Yankees as a team he wouldn't want to sign a long-term deal with because of their facial hair policy.

Dave, Dave, Dave.  You fool.  I have a beard too, a better one than yours if I'm being honest, and I would cringe at the thought of having to rid myself of it just to play for the Yankees.  But what you don't realize is that by making that statement you've shown your hand.  The correct answer to Morosi's reference to the Yankee beard policy would have been, "I'm not even worried about that right now.  I love being a Tampa Bay Ray and I'm focused on this season and my teammates and us doing what we have to do to get back to the postseason.  I can't think about what may or may not happen years down the line, I just have to keep doing my job."  Instead you took the bait and talked about why you wouldn't want to re-sign there like it was already a foregone conclusion that you were going to be traded to the Yankees.

Just admit it, bro.  You've got Yankees on the brain.  You sweat the Yankees.  You can't get them out of your head.  Even if you aren't traded, you've got three more years before you become a free agent and your beard even becomes an issue.  Three years is a long time into the future, my dude, and you're already fixated on whether or not you're going to have to shave your beard for the Yankees.  You're like the girl in high school who's already dreaming about her crush asking her to the prom in October.  You might as well schedule a sitdown with the Steinbrenners and work out a new contract right now.

Bearded man to bearded man, I can appreciate your love for your facial hair.  But you're only lying to yourself if you honestly believe you are going to turn down an offer from the Yankees for that reason, and the way you responded to Morosi bringing it up is proof.  At the end of the day, money talks and facial hair walks.

Plans For D-Rob After His Arbitration Years

 (He should probably get his own private bathroom too... )

After the quick burst of 1-year agreements with their arbitration-eligible players last week, the Yankees now have all but 1 of their key core roster members under contract for 2013.  The lone remaining unsigned guy is David Robertson, and both he and the Yankees submitted their arbitration numbers for a possible hearing next month.  D-Rob is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and one way or another he stands to get a big raise from the $1.6 mil he made in 2012.  Robertson submitted $3.55 million as his desired figure while the Yankees submitted $2.85 mil, which is right in line with MLBTR's prediction of $2.8 mil.  They can still work out a new deal before taking it to arbitration, but what about after his arbitration years are up?  What then?  The Yankees will have some serious decisions to make on the future of their bullpen after this season, and D-Rob figures to play prominently in those decisions.

** UPDATE 11:37 AM- Jon Heyman reporting that the Yanks and D-Rob have agreed to a 1-year/$3.1 million deal for 2013.  That locks him in for this season, but everything after the jump is still relevant. **

The Handy, Helpful AB4AR Guide To Qualifying Offers

The World Series ended last night, which means Tim Lincecum is probably smoking a lot of celebratory weed right now.  It also means that the clock officially starts ticking on all the major offseason milestones, the first one being the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their pending free agents.  If you aren't familiar with the new free agent system, here's a quick rundown of how it works now.

There are no more Type A or Type B free agents; there is now a level set every year based on the average value of the 125 biggest contracts in MLB that teams can offer to any pending free agent who spent the entire previous season on their roster.  This year that value is $13.3 million.  Teams have until 5 days after the World Series to offer a qualifying deal to any pending free agent on their team who fits the criteria and then that player has 7 days to accept or decline the offer.  If they accept, they return to their team on a 1-year deal for the qualifying amount; if they decline, they are free to sign with any team and their former team is given a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the next MLB draft.  Whatever new team the player ends up with does not have to surrender a pick, just the money that they are signing the free agent to.

The Yankees have a fair share of pending free agents this season, but only a few who are really worthy of having a qualifying offer extended to them.  As a helpful guide for the next 5 days, here is an all encompassing list of who should and should not receive an offer.

10 Years And "Top-Of-The-Market" Money, Huh Robbie?

(Talking big-money contract desires after a historically bad postseason.  Interesting strategy.  Courtes of the AP

While most of the Yankee-related news to come across the wire this past weekend was related to injuries and guys getting their options picked up or not picked up, a small bit that may have flown under the radar was Joel Sherman's Saturday piece in The Post about the upcoming Robinson Cano contract situation.  In it, Sherman made reference to Cano's reported desire to seek a 10-year deal worth "top-of-the-market dollars," phrasing that sounds all too familiar when talking about premiere infielders in pinstripes.  It's almost certain that this declaration is Scott Boras-driven, as Boras is notorious for never wanting his clients to negotiate before their deals are up and always seeking top dollar.  But if Boras, or Cano for that matter, really think they are going to get that deal from the Yankees, or anybody, they might want to start drinking some of that reality potion that Cash wanted Jeter to sip on a few years ago.

Sour Puss To Opt Out? I'll Take It

(He's actually smiling!  I would be too if I was looking at getting another huge deal)

Get your grain of salt ready, considering the source, but Jon Heyman reported yesterday that Rafael Soriano is considering opting out of the final year of his contract after this season.

"There is a good chance Rafael Soriano will invoke his opt-out clause following a season in which he has been a savior for the Yankees, people familiar with the situation say."

Can't really say I blame Raffy if he does make that decision.  $14 mil is a lot of money to walk away from, but Soriano has had a monster year (2.14 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 9.31 K/9 in 59.0 IP, 38-41 in save opps) and there are going to be some deep-pocketed teams in the market for a closer.  He capitalized on his big year in Tampa to get this Yankee contract, why wouldn't he do the same thing after this season?

And from the Yankees' standpoint they really wouldn't be dead in the water without Soriano.  They'll likely get Mo back next season, they'll still have D-Rob, Joba, Boone Logan, and Aardsma out there, and they could use part of that extra $14 mil to fill any leftover bullpen holes.  If Soriano wants to test the FA waters, let him.  Make him a qualifying offer and when the Dodgers throw 3 years/$48 mil at him, take the extra draft pick and walk away.

Gut Check Time For Phil Hughes

(No, not that gut)

Cue the John Cena music, because Phil Hughes' time is up and his time is now.  In his 7-year professional career, Hughes has been a 1st-round draft pick, a top-flight Yankee prospect, a top 5 blue chip prospect in all of baseball, a future ace, a promising young arm, an injury-prone question mark, a dominant reliever, an encouraging project, an out-of-shape failure, and now a solid middle-of-the-rotation contributor.  He's had enough ups and downs, changes to his role and pitching style, and injury problems to last an entire career and yet he's still only 26 years old.  Hughes has bounced back nicely in 2012 after last year's disaster, and he now finds himself rapidly approaching a crossroads in his career path as it relates to being a New York Yankee.

Nick Swisher Is Not Coming Back

(Smiling all the way to the bank.  Courtesy of Herb Swanson/EPA)

Nick Swisher's future as a Yankee after the 2012 season has been a constant point of conversation this year, as he is the first big internal free agent candidate who could be affected by the future payroll plans.  The conversation heated up this week after the Dodgers announced their new deal with Andre Ethier, with everybody chiming in on how they think the Ethier deal will affect Swish and his value on the open market.  I'm one of the last chimers, so I'll just try to make my point short and sweet.

Bring Me Jorge Soler

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

The Jorge Soler Sweepstakes was reignited yesterday when Buster Olney tweeted that the list of teams who were the "most aggressive" in their pursuits of the young Cuban was down to 4- the Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, and Yankees.  That fire was stoked a bit more today when The Post reported that Soler was expected to finalize a deal with one of those teams before tomorrow.  According to George King, Soler and his agent are looking for a 4-year deal, and with what's already known about the 20-year-old Soler that's a deal the Yankees should make sure they offer and make sure they offer a good one.

The makeup on Soler paints him as a potential 5-tool player with plus power, speed, and arm strength.  If he were in the recent MLB Draft, he likely would have been a top 5-10 pick.  He's not a finished product yet, and almost certainly wouldn't make an immediate Mike Trout or Bryce Harper-like jump to show, but Soler would be an easy top 5 prospect in any organization.  His 4-year contract won't be a cheap one, but he'll almost certainly come cheaper than Yoenis Cespedes, and at 6 years younger than Cespedes he's positioned to have a longer career.

Thoughts On The Cano Contract Situation

(Swag.  Courtesy of MLB.com)

The future of Robinson Cano in pinstripes has become an increasingly popular and important topic of discussion over the past few months, both in terms of what kind of deal he could get and how the Yankees' efforts to re-sign him will impact their goals of getting below the $189 million payroll limit for 2014.  That discussion has become even louder in the last day or so as the Rangers' recent re-signing of Ian Kinsler, combined with similar re-up deals for Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla, has established a baseline for the numbers.  2 posts yesterday, one from Mike Axisa of RAB and another from Eric Schultz of TYA covered the current situation about as well as I could ever hope to, so rather than try to craft something as well put together as they did, I'll just put my Peter King hat on and offer up some of my own thought on the matter and what I think can, should, and will happen.

The End Of The Yankees' 2012 FA Pitcher Search

Take a look at this blind career comparison of 3 starting pitchers:

- Player A: 3.35/3.69/4.26, 7.41 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 25.0 bWAR
- Player B: 3.39/3.63/3.42, 8.45 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 22.5 bWAR
- Player C: 3.82/3.51/3.68, 7.96 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 24.4 bWAR

Which one would you want on your team?  You really can't go wrong with any of the 3 to be honest.  That's 3 top flight starting pitchers all in the prime of their careers at ages 27 (A) and 28 (B and C).  Player A is actually Matt Cain, who became the richest right-hander in baseball yesterday by signing a new 6-year/$127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants.  Player B is Cole Hamels and Player C is Zack Greinke, and collectively these 3 would have made one of the best classes of free agent pitchers in baseball history after the 2012 season.  The Yankees could have been major players in that market, but after seeing what Cain got from San Fran I think it's safe to say the Yankees' pursuit of any of these 3 is over before it started.

Cain is a helluva pitcher, but the argument could be made that he's the third best out of this group.  If he's pulling in over $21 mil per year in his new deal, that all but guarantees Hamels and Greinke will get more.  Hamels' numbers are better than Cain's almost across the board and he has the added benefit of being left-handed.  Greinke's numbers stack up favorably to Cain's as well and he has a Cy Young under his belt and a track record of success in both leagues.  If Cain is pulling $21 mil, these other 2 are going to get more, and with the self-imposed 2014 payroll cap looming over them, that kind of money is going to be too rich for the Yankees' blood.

Chances are the Yankees weren't going to be heavily involved with these 3 anyway after making the Pineda trade, but if the price tags could have stayed in the $18-20 million range maybe we would have seen them make an offer.  No chance of that happening now, assuming Hamels and Greinke even make it to free agency.  Michael, Ivan, Phil, Manny?  You guys just became even more important.