Yanks Still Trying To Avoid The Luxury Tax?

The Yankees' activity on the free agent market has slowed way down since the Carlos Beltran signing.  Sure, they added Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton this week, but their involvement on the starting pitching market has been non-existent with things held up on the Masahiro Tanaka front and now it sounds like the plan to stay under the $189 million luxury tax threshold is back on again.  Via Joel Sherman's Thursday column:

"Because as one member of the organization said to me, 'We either have to be under $189 million or up over $200 million or more. Think how dumb it would look if we worked for a few years to get under $189 million and we didn’t and we were at like $192 million and just missed. Either we go under or way over.'"

That comment was made in the context of talking about Alex Rodriguez's suspension, but it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  The Yankees have spent a shit ton of money this offseason, enough money to put themselves right on the ragged edge of going over that 189 number.  They've done a solid job of trying to reload the team on the fly but there are still some major spots that need to be addressed.  To not stay fully committed to that and to go super cheap to avoid the luxury tax in the event that A-Rod isn't suspended for the whole year is stupid and makes the rest of their big offseason moves relatively pointless.

Project 189: Spreading The Wealth

(Originally posted at IIATMS/TYA.  And "Project 189" is going to be an ongoing series for the next week and change, so make sure you keep following each day to see every writer's version.  Fair warning, this post is long as shit)

The latest chapter in the A-Rod/MLB saga stole the show yesterday and with good reason.  When something this big reaches the level of absurdity that it did and when Mike Francesa gets added to the mix, that's a situation that deserves everyone's full attention.

But if in the wave of A-Rod reports you happened to miss the start of the IIATMS/TYA "Project 189" series yesterday, please stop reading this immediately, scroll down the page a bit, and catch up on that because you're missing out if you don't.  The series is the brainchild of Michael Eder, who wanted to know what kind of team that Yankees could go out and build while still trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold if they didn't have A-Rod's salary on the books next year.  That looks like an even greater possibility than it already did after yesterday's events, and Mike kicked off Project 189 yesterday by setting the bar pretty high.

MIke's version of the 2014 roster had power, lineup balance, and probably the best team defense that the Yankees have had in a long, long time.  Today it's my turn to follow that up and offer my version of Project 189.  Remember, the point of these posts is not to make predictions on what we at IIATMS/TYA think the Yankees will do but rather to examine all the possibilities and stimulate some thought and discussion about what they could do.  And another reminder that the salary and arbitration numbers being used in these posts are from MLBTR's free agent profiles.  We're aware that the actual numbers might come out differently, but for the purposes of standardization in the series it's what we chose to work with.

Without further ado, my Project 189 roster.

A-Rod's Offseason Battles Starting To Hinder The Yankees' Offseason Plans

(Courtesy of Anthony Delmundo/NY Daily News)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There are a lot of words you could use to describe the back-and-forth mud slinging in the media between Alex Rodriguez's legal camp and Major League Baseball right now.  Hilarious, ridiculous, and pathetic are a few that come mind.  But how about problematic?  While the verbal haymakers being thrown don't appear to have much impact on the Yankees as a team, the dragging out of the process is going to become a big problem now that the offseason and free agency have started.

Who knows what's going to happen with Alex's "witch hunt" lawsuit against MLB.  I'm sure he and his lawyers thought filing it would help strengthen their suspension appeal case, but with the way things are going between both sides in the media you have to think the arbitrator won't be swayed too much by it.  The real concern from the Yankees' perspective is the appeal hearing and the still lengthy amount of time until it starts again.

MLBTR's Arbitration Projections And Not Paying Too Much For Mediocrity

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

MLB Trade Rumors released their projected salaries for the Yankees' arbitration-eligible players yesterday.  While they are only projections, MLBTR has been pretty accurate with their numbers the past few years.  Typically these deals are an afterthought in Yankeeland, but with signs still pointing towards the $189 million luxury tax threshold being the main goal for them this offseason they become much more important.  Here's what MLBTR projected for the Yankees' 7 eligible players:

• David Robertson- $5.5 million
• Brett Gardner- $4 million
• Ivan Nova- $2.8 million
• Shawn Kelley- $1.5 million
• Jayson Nix- $1.4 million
• Francisco Cervelli- $1 million
• Chris Stewart- $1 million

That's $17.2 million of potential salary added to next year's total, and when you're trying to cut costs on a team that already has almost $85 mil tied up in 6 players, that can make or break you.  The decision to offer arbitration or new deals to these players isn't as simple as it usually is for New York, and they need to be smart about these decisions.

$300 Million Spending Spree? I'll Believe It When I See It

So everybody's all aflutter after this Andrew Marchand story came out yesterday about a supposed $300 million spending spree on the horizon.  According to Marchand's sources, the Yankee front office has laid out a plan to re-sign Robinson Cano, sign free agents Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran, AND stay under the $189 million luxury tax threshold.  Before I dive into the details and the numbers and how that could even conceivably work, all I'm going to do right now is sit and wait for the Yankees to prove that this is something more than just another phony report designed to draw pageviews.

Last offseason, when this scheme to get under the luxury tax limit really started to become a front office focal point, the only thing the Yankees showed a willingness to do was cut payroll and work to cut more payroll for 2014.  They they didn't show any commitment to spending money that had a positive impact on the on-field product.  Adding all 4 of those players mentioned would certainly do both of those things.  It would also go against everything the Yankees just finished doing this past offseason and against what they've shown their new top priority to be.

I'm on the record as wanting Cano back next year and for the remainder of his career.  I think the Yankees should absolutely go after Tanaka and fully recognize that both McCann and Beltran would be major upgrades to 2 positions that are in need of upgrades.  If this is the plan they're going with, and they think they can do it while staying under their 189 number, I'm on board with it.  I'm just not going to say much about it until I actually see actions from the front office that are in line with Marchand's words.

Qualifying Offer Candidates: Yay Or Nay

While it's still a month away, eventually the offseason will start and the Yankees will be face-to-face with a buttload of decisions to make for 2014.  They're losing a lot of players to retirement and free agency, and with the payroll budget and A-Rod's suspension uncertainty hanging over them it could be quite the uphill battle to replace, rebuild, restock, and re-up for next season.  One of the first round of decisions they'll have to make is whether to extend qualifying offers to some of their own free agents.  With the QO value expected to be around $14 million, that's a significant chunk of change to tack onto the payroll for a team on a budget.  The Yankees are going to have to weigh the value of that salary and anticipated production against the possible draft pick.

Now we're not talking about every free agent here.  Obviously the Yankees aren't going to make offers to Mo or Andy because they know they're retiring.  I'm also pretty sure they won't be making offers to guys like Kevin Youkilis and Boone Logan because they're nowhere near being worth that kind of money.  There are 4 players who stand out as potential candidates.  After the jump, my decisions on whether to make each of those 4 a qualifying offer.

The Curtis Granderson Dilemma

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

There have been a lot of hitting headlines lately since the Yankees finally got their lineup upgraded to a competitive level.  Alfonso Soriano has hit 11 HR since being traded back to New York, Alex Rodriguez is a topic of discussion nearly every night and mainly because of his bat (.371 wOBA since coming off the DL), and Robbie Cano continues to shift the debate on what his contract should or should not be nightly with exploits at the dish.  Flying somewhat under the radar in that media storm is Curtis Granderson, whose been quietly productive and incredibly versatile since coming off the DL for the second time this season.

After last night's game, C-Grand is hitting .291/.412/.456 (.381 wOBA) in 97 August PA.  In 24 games back, Curtis has 23 hits, 17 walks, 3 home runs, 12 R scored, and 6 stolen bases.  He's started games in all 3 outfield positions and as the DH, has entered as a pinch hitter, and has hit 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in the batting order.  He said all the right things before the season about doing whatever it took to help the team win when his center field spot no longer became his, and he's more than backed that up on the field since getting back.  In theory he should be doing everything to strengthen his value as one of the top free agent position players available after this season.  In actuality, it might not be that simple.

Yanks Reportedly Scrapping The 2014 Payroll Plan (Again)

By now, you've all probably heard this latest rumor about the Yankees doing away with their $189 million payroll plan for next season.  Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports released a story last Thursday, citing multiple sources, about the Yankee front office deciding that the plan for 2014 was "unlikely and impractical" and doing away with it to return to business as usual.  One quote from a "team official" was especially telling:

"It was a good idea to try, but deep down, we all pretty much knew it wasn't going to happen."

While the reasoning and logic referenced by Passan in the article is all sound, and the Yankees' ability to toe both the "fiscally responsible" and "championship-caliber team" lines is greatly questioned, I'm taking the same approach I took when Wally Matthews posted a similar story months back and waiting until the Yankees act in a way that's consistent with these reports before accepting them as gospel.  As with Matthews' story, Passan's piece here seems to be nothing more than educated speculation and connecting dots that may or may not be there.

The bottom line is that everything the Yankees have done (well, almost everything) since announcing their plan to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2014 has been in line with that plan.  All parts of that plan, the logic, the execution, the benefits, etc., can be questioned and it's the job of the media to do that questioning and try to uncover something of substance.  Until they do, however, or until the Yanks take it upon themselves to act in a way that suggests what Passan and Matthews wrote is true, there's no reason to dive headfirst back into the pool of free spending.

2013 Storylines: Shoring Up The 2014 Rotation

(Two important parts to this year's rotation.  But what about next year?  Courtesy of the AP)

To say the starting rotation is critically important for the Yankees in 2013 is an understatement.  The front office willingly took a step back offensively to make filling out the 2013 rotation the priority this past offseason, and so far in camp things are coming together nicely.  Ivan Nova has had two strong starts, Hiroki Kuroda looked outstanding yesterday striking out 6 over 4 scoreless IP, David Phelps has been steady and consistent as the 6th starter, and the rest of the projected starting five are scheduled to make their 2013 debuts in the very near future.

The rotation should be the biggest strength of this year's team, but on a parallel path of importance this season will be how this year's results influence the plans for next year's rotation.  The Yankees will have a lot more work to do building next year's rotation under the payroll crunch and will be using this season's performances to gauge how and if their current collection of young starters factor into next year's plans.

Hal Ditching The $189 Million Budget? Believe It When You See It

(Budget cutbacks in the style department too, huh?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

After a dark, dismal offseason, there may be some rays of spending sunshine peeking through the clouds.  At least that's the implication in Wally Matthews' latest post from yesterday afternoon.  In it, Matthews suggests that Hal Steinbrenner's sudden willingness to engage in contract extension talks with Robinson Cano could signal a shift in Hal's philosophy on spending and the eventual end of the $189 million payroll budget for next season.  Matthews cites "sources" in the story, unnamed ones of course, and the whole concept of the story seems like a big conclusion to jump to based on a few reports of the two sides talking.  It's great in theory, but being willing to negotiate a new deal with Cano before his current one is up doesn't exactly trump every other offseason decision the Yankees made.

Plans For D-Rob After His Arbitration Years

 (He should probably get his own private bathroom too... )

After the quick burst of 1-year agreements with their arbitration-eligible players last week, the Yankees now have all but 1 of their key core roster members under contract for 2013.  The lone remaining unsigned guy is David Robertson, and both he and the Yankees submitted their arbitration numbers for a possible hearing next month.  D-Rob is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and one way or another he stands to get a big raise from the $1.6 mil he made in 2012.  Robertson submitted $3.55 million as his desired figure while the Yankees submitted $2.85 mil, which is right in line with MLBTR's prediction of $2.8 mil.  They can still work out a new deal before taking it to arbitration, but what about after his arbitration years are up?  What then?  The Yankees will have some serious decisions to make on the future of their bullpen after this season, and D-Rob figures to play prominently in those decisions.

** UPDATE 11:37 AM- Jon Heyman reporting that the Yanks and D-Rob have agreed to a 1-year/$3.1 million deal for 2013.  That locks him in for this season, but everything after the jump is still relevant. **

Hal Steinbrenner Does Not Compute

 ("I have more money than you.")

Hal Steinbrenner is not nearly as active in talking to the media as his old man was, and more and more it's starting to look like that's for the best because it seems like whenever he opens his mouth there's nothing good coming out of it.  I don't know if Hal thinks all the Yankee fans out there are as clueless about baseball as he is or if he thinks we're all just stupid, but the comments he made yesterday at the quarterly owners' meetings didn't make a whole lot of sense.  Some of what he said was downright offensive to me as a Yankee fan and someone who considers himself pretty knowledgeable about the sport of baseball.  Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal had the most comprehensive collection of Hal's quotes and after the jump are my takes on some of the highlights.

A Lot On The Line For Phil Hughes In 2013

(How much can Hughes make for himself in 2013?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

After a 2011 season that could only be called a complete disaster, Phil Hughes rebounded nicely in 2012.  He came into camp healthy and stayed that way for the entirety of the season on his way to a career high in starts (34) and innings pitched (201.0) between the regular and postseasons.  With other key members of the rotation either getting hurt (CC, Andy, Pineda) or flaming out (Nova), Hughes' mere presence in the lineup helped provide consistency and an extra innings eater, and after a rough April he actually pitched pretty well.

Earlier today, Chad Jennings, expanding on an idea originally included in a post by Joel Sherman last week, discussed the strange position Hughes finds himself in heading into 2013.  He's made himself a much more important part of the current and possibly future rotations after years of inconsistency and uncertainty, and at age 26 at season's start would be primed to earn himself a big payday in free agency next offseason.  He's also done/doing it during a time where the Yankees are tight with their money, and could very well price himself out of their range with a good year.  Complicating the matter even more are Hughes' spotty career totals and recent positive trends, the Yankees' own internal starting pitching questions, and the free agent market to be.

Hamilton Signing Ends Any Chance Of A Big Yankee Splash

Unless you either live under a rock or are more dedicated to your day job than I am and didn't spend time surfing the interwebs today, you already know that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim swooped in and signed big free agent fish Josh Hamilton to a 5-year/$125 million deal earlier today.  The move was a bit surprising, as the Angels hadn't been connected to Hamilton nearly as much as other clubs and there hadn't been much talk of Hamilton getting an offer for more than 3-4 years.  But kudos to the Angels for adding the  best FA hitter available on the market to an already dangerous lineup and for effectively ending any chance of there being fireworks for the Yankees this offseason.

Those chances were already slim to none.  The Yankees have executed what they said their offseason plan of attack was going to be to a tee, securing their own internal free agent pitchers to re-bolster the staff and focusing on 1-year deals and cheap platoon players to keep payroll flexibility intact heading into 2014.  I had my dream scenario, as we all did (probably including Cash), but with Zack Greinke and Hamilton coming off the market, Arizona making a trade that likely ended any chance of them moving Justin Upton, and San Diego holding firm to their commitment to not trading Chase Headley, the big move well has pretty much dried up for New York.

They've got their replacement third baseman, and they are reportedly getting closer and closer to finalizing a deal with one half of a possible right field platoon.  After that, I think we can all shut off the lights on the major portion of the Yankee 2012-2013 offseason.

Top Free Agent Targets For 2013: Pitchers

Payroll restrictions or not, the Yankees are going to have to get involved in the free agent market this offseason to address their areas of need and finish out their roster to take another run at title 28 next season. They've already lost some major parts of the 2012 roster and they're going to have to get creative to fill those holes and build a roster capable of contending for a championship.

Yesterday I presented my list of position players I felt made the most sense for the Yankees to go after this offeason, some of whom would fit the team's cost cutting goals and some who wouldn't but were good fits in terms of addressing team needs.  Today we'll take a look at the group of players in the bigger area of need, pitching.  The Yankee rotation has 2 open spots right now, 3 if you think they aren't going to guarantee Ivan Nova a spot heading into next season, and they could use some depth in the bullpen to cover for the loss of Rafael Soriano and the uncertainty surrounding Mariano Rivera's return from injury.  They need to spend money to adequately address these openings, but as with the position players their approach will be dictated by their future payroll plans and their desire to keep costs and years committed to a minimum.

Top Free Agent Targets For 2013: Position Players

With everyone having now made their decisions on the qualifying offers that were made (all were declined) and the GM meetings this week getting things moving towards the meat of the 2012 offseason schedule, the Yankees know where they stand and know where they need to focus their efforts to build their team for 2013.  As presently constructed, the Yankee roster is short 2 starting pitchers, 1 right fielder, 1 hitter capable of handling a significant chunk of the time at DH, at least 1 relief pitcher to build depth in front of a returning Mariano Rivera, and a couple of pieces to fill out the bench.

The precedent has already been set from the front office for how they plan to fill these needs, and it's going to be on the cheap, cheaper than it was last season when the Yankees jumped in late to swipe a few veterans on 1-year deals.  That strategy will eliminate some of the players mentioned below, but that still isn't stopping me from putting together my list of the top free agents the Yankees should be going after this offseason.  We'll tackle the first half of that list, the position players, after the jump.

When Your Greatest Strength Becomes Your Greatest Weakness

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

There's been nothing major to come out of the first 2 days of the GM meetings this week, and I highly doubt anything major will come out of today's final day, which is not surprising at all.  These meetings are just the precursor to the bigger meetings in December.  What is a bit surprising is how open the Yankees have been in regards to what they will and won't do this offseason as part of their planned 2014 payroll cut.  Joel Sherman reported yesterday that they would not be willing to offer Torii Hunter more than a 1-year deal, and that despite Justin Upton being back on the trade block and reportedly removing New York from his no-trade list, "the Yankees are not on him."  I'm all for trying to avoid the luxury tax penalty in 2014, but I can't help but think that the Yankees are tipping their hand a little early here and setting themselves up for future problems as they go about filling out their roster for the next couple seasons.

Pay Cut For Mo Makes Sense

(Courtesy of the AP)

I'm sure there were some people who thought, "why the hell would they do that?" when they read or heard about the Yankees preparing to offer Mariano Rivera a new deal for 2013 that included a pay cut from the $15 million he made this season.  Bob Klapisch went so far as to say that Mo "may be insulted" by the first offer in the headline of his story on the situation.  This type of language immediately brings to mind the very tense and public back-and-forth between the Yankees and Derek Jeter a few years ago when they were negotiating his new deal, but I don't believe this negotiation with Mo will go down that same path.  At the end of the day, it's just smart business and a move that makes sense for both sides.

The Handy, Helpful AB4AR Guide To Qualifying Offers

The World Series ended last night, which means Tim Lincecum is probably smoking a lot of celebratory weed right now.  It also means that the clock officially starts ticking on all the major offseason milestones, the first one being the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their pending free agents.  If you aren't familiar with the new free agent system, here's a quick rundown of how it works now.

There are no more Type A or Type B free agents; there is now a level set every year based on the average value of the 125 biggest contracts in MLB that teams can offer to any pending free agent who spent the entire previous season on their roster.  This year that value is $13.3 million.  Teams have until 5 days after the World Series to offer a qualifying deal to any pending free agent on their team who fits the criteria and then that player has 7 days to accept or decline the offer.  If they accept, they return to their team on a 1-year deal for the qualifying amount; if they decline, they are free to sign with any team and their former team is given a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the next MLB draft.  Whatever new team the player ends up with does not have to surrender a pick, just the money that they are signing the free agent to.

The Yankees have a fair share of pending free agents this season, but only a few who are really worthy of having a qualifying offer extended to them.  As a helpful guide for the next 5 days, here is an all encompassing list of who should and should not receive an offer.

C-Grand's Trends Are Packing His Bags For Him

(D'oh!  Courtesy of The AP)

I like Curtis Granderson.  I've written a lot of positive things about him since the great Kevin Long Swing Rebuild Project of 2010, and since then he's been arguably the Yankees' best position player not named Robinson Cano.  I think he was a great pickup for the Yankees given their needs at the time, and even as the value scales have started to tip away from his and the Yankees' favors as it relates to that trade this season, I still think it was the right move to make.  Granderson has been a very valuable and productive piece of the Yankee lineup over the last 2+ seasons, and barring serious injury he will likely continue to be valuable and productive through the remainder of his current contract.  That being said, I don't think it would be a wise move for the Yankees to re-sign C-Grand after the 2013 season, and I think the trends in his performance this season should be starting to open people's eyes as to why.