AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Predictions

When I said the 3 weeks of season preview posts were over yesterday, I wasn't being 100% honest.  There's still the matter of making my 2014 predictions, an annual rite of passage I've passed with flying colors each of the last 2 seasons.  If you've already read the staff predictions post over at IIATMS/TYA, then you already know what my picks are.  Only thing that's changing here are the additions of the full AL East predictions and expanded postseason predictions.

Without further ado, here they are...

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview Recap

Well that's it, ladies and gentlemen.  3 weeks have come and gone and with them we've previewed the upcoming 2014 season in every which way imaginable.  The last week of preview posts was this past week, a detailed position-by-position breakdown of the Opening Day roster and its strengths and weaknesses.  The rotation and outfield look like the no questions asked strengths of the team while the infield and bench look like the obvious weaknesses, but check out each individual roster group post and judge for yourself.

- The Infield

- The Outfield

- The Rotation

- The Bullpen

- The Bench

The regular season starts on Tuesday, so use these next 2 days to catch up on whatever you've missed.  The "2014 Knowns and Unknowns" series can be found here, and the "Season Storylines" posts here.  Check back tomorrow afternoon for my 2014 predictions.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Bench

(Not you again!  Courtesy of US Presswire)

So here we are at the final post of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview Series.  The major storylines have been covered, the knowns and unknowns have been laid out, and all but one roster group has been broken down in anticipation of that magical day next Tuesday.  All in all, I feel pretty good about this team and I feel like I've done a pretty good job promoting those good feelings.  I think the new outfield is going to be super productive, I believe the rotation will end up being one of the 5 best in baseball, and I have no reason not to expect the bullpen to get figured out one way or another because it always does.  I can even muster up a little hope for the infield to be passable.

Here's the thing though.  I have zero faith in the Yankees having a productive bench this season.  None.  I know it's a popular trend to look at guys who have performed well in ST and start imagining them as regular season super subs.  The reality is that none of those guys are really that good.  If the Zelous Wheelers and Yangervis Solartes of the world were really that good, they would already be on a 40-man roster somewhere.  They very well could end up being just as productive as the more familiar faces that are going to open the season on the bench, but that's really not saying much when you look at that projected bench objectively.  The bench is a weakness again and it's something that will have to be addressed at some point if the Yankees are going to be real contenders for the title.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Bullpen

(Not Mo.  But potentially just as good.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

For the better part of the last 2 decades, any talk about the Yankee bullpen began and ended with Mariano Rivera.  No matter the combined skill and depth of the other 6 relievers in front of him, having Mo there for the 9th inning was the great equalizer, the 1-man advantage that no other team could compete with.  2013 was the final season of Mo's reign of terror over the rest of the American League and the Yankees embark on the start of a new bullpen era this season with Mo's successor assuming the 9th inning throne.

Mo was not the only major loss from last year's bullpen.  Recent mainstays like Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain have also moved on, and the Yankees enter this season far less settled in their relief role definition and hierarchy than they've been in quite some time.  The potential is there for this group to be every bit as effective and occasionally dominant as the last group was.  It's a matter of seeing who steps up, who falters, and how everything eventually shakes out.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Rotation

(Don't call it a comeback... Courtesy of the AP)

When Joe announced that Michael Pineda would be the 5th starter to open the season, he answered the final question about how the starting rotation would look in 2014.  CC, Hirok, Nova, and Tanaka had already been lined up to start the first 4 games of the regular season.  Now we know who comes after that.

What we don't know is how this rotation is going to perform, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic and even excited about the possibilities.  The potential is there for the Yanks to have 5 legitimate top tier starters in their rotation, 5 pitchers who can come out on any given day and completely shut the opposing team down.  It's been a long time since we've been able to say that about a Yankee rotation and even though a lot needs to go right for that possibility to be realized, that still puts the team in a much more advantageous position than it's been in years.  After the jump, the player-by-player breakdown of this year's starting 5.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Outfield

(Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankee outfield never came close to reaching its full potential last season due mainly to the injuries suffered by Curtis Granderson.  That being the case, even a healthy Granderson wouldn't have been enough to make the outfield truly a strength.  The projected starting outfield had become very rigid in its individual skill sets.  C-Grand hit for power and got on base but didn't hit for average and had no defensive value.  Gardner got on base and was a plus-plus defender but hit for very little power.  Ichiro was a plus defender with good speed but didn't get on base or hit for enough average or power to make the most out of it.

2 of those 3 starters from last year will no longer be a part of the starting picture in 2014.  As part of the offseason makeover, the Yankees added more well-rounded players to center and right field and shifted the newly-extended Gardner back to left field, where he's had the most success in the past.  There are still some things that need to be ironed out with respect to this new outfield alignment, but collectively they should be much better and much more balanced in their overall offensive and defensive makeup than they were last season.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Infield

(Watch the wrist, guy.  Kinda got a lot riding on it this year.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Early in Spring Training, we heard that Larry Rothschild was stressing the importance of pitching down in the strike zone to his pitching staff this year.  A few years ago that would have been an ideal strategy for the Yankees to maximize their defensive value.  They had a Gold Glove first baseman, a pretty good second baseman, a decent-to-slightly above average third baseman, and a shortstop who, for all his range limitations at a position most requiring good range, was good at making plays on the balls he could get to.

It's no longer that infield heyday, and the Yankees enter the 2014 season much less secure in their infield makeup than they were a few years ago.  Half of those former players will not be a part of this year's team.  The half that remains is not nearly what it was as recently as 2012.  For the first time in a long time, the Yanks enter a season not knowing what to expect from their starting infield defensively or offensively.  There are more questions than answers right now, and it could be a few months before the answers to those questions materialize.  To kick off the final week of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview Series, let's look at the 2014 starting infield.

2014 Season Preview: Knowns And Unknowns Recap

Another week of season preview posts has come and gone, and this time it was the knowns and unknowns facing each roster group as they prepare for the start of the regular season.  As the week went by, some of those unknowns started to be answered, but with just 9 days remaining until Opening Day there are still some questions that need to be figured out.  Here's the roundup of all 5 knowns/unknowns posts from this past week:

- The Infield

- The Outfield

- The Rotation

- The Bullpen

- The Bench

With the end of this week, we'll move into the final week of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview Series tomorrow with the actual "Season Preview" posts.  Same format as this week, each day will be devoted to one roster group, and then we'll put a bow on all of it with the 2014 Season Predictions post on 3/31.  Check back tomorrow for the 2014 infield season preview.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Bench)

(Courtesy of the AP)

I know I've said this multiple times already, but I still can't get over how little the Yankees did to address their bench this offseason.  I know they had visions of Kelly Johnson being their super sub and Robbie Cano going to Seattle threw a wrench into that, but it still doesn't sit right with me that they'd spend all the money they did to upgrade the rest of the roster and then not go the extra step of bringing in some higher quality bench depth to back up their older/injury riskier players.  That's not to say there isn't a chance that the bench will surprise us this season and provide solid production, but it's not something I'm banking on.  Before they even get to that point, the Yankees have a lot of questions to answer regarding the makeup and playing time distribution of their 4 bench spots.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Bullpen)

(Courtesy of US Presswire)

With a few exceptions here and there, the bullpen has been the stronger part of the Yankee pitching staff for the last few seasons.  That'll happen when the greatest closer in the history of baseball is holding down the fort for the 9th inning.  But it's more than that.  The Yankees, for all their faults in building up the rest of their roster, have been very good at putting together their bullpens through multiple sources.  They've generated some good homegrown relievers, they've signed or traded for guys who have provided above-average pitching production in late-game innings, and they've been masters of finding undervalued assets and getting decent production from them before cutting bait and moving on.  A lot has changed from the last few seasons heading into this one, however, and those changes could have a major impact on the look and overall performance of the bullpen in 2014.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Rotation)

(Courtesy of the AP)

When Brian Cashman took the plunge and signed CC Sabathia during the 2008-2009 offseason, it was the start of the Yankees' new commitment to building a solid starting rotation.  The main factor that kept them out of the World Series after 2003 was their lack of top notch-quality starting pitching and their lack of rotation depth.  Sabathia has given them more than what they hoped for and then some since signing, but one thing that's always lagged behind is the quality of depth behind him in the rotation.  Former top prospects like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain didn't pan out, nor did CC's fellow big FA signing from that offseason.  The lack of back end depth became such an issue that Andy Pettitte had to be brought back and then brought back out of retirement to fortify the rotation.

He's not around this year, nor are Hughes and Chamberlain, but for the first time in a while it appears as though the Yankees have finally solved that depth problem for the short and long-term futures.  There are still a few things that need to be ironed out, but the lay of the rotation land this year is much brighter than it's been in a while.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Outfield)

(Pretend the dude in the middle is Gardner.  Courtesy of the AP)

While the starting infield looks a lot different than it did at this time last year, I don't think I'd label the changes as a "makeover".  It's an impossible argument to make that this year's projected starting infield is better than last year's and I won't waste my time or yours trying to make it.  Moving to the outfield, however, that makeover label starts to fit a lot better.  This year's projected starting group, which includes 2 of the Yankees' premiere FA signings, looks much better and more well-balanced on paper than last year's.  There's above-average defense, better batting average and all-around on-base skills, fewer strikeouts, and enough pop in the bats to keep opposing pitchers honest.  After the jump, the knowns and unknowns for this remade starting outfield.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Infield)

(That's almost 80 years of middle infielder right there.  Courtesy of the AP)

While March 17th holds a special place in most of our hearts as a day of calling out of work and engaging in drunken merriment, the feelings and associations in most MLB camps today are not as jovial.  The start of this week signals the beginning of the end of Spring Training, the final 2 weeks until the start of the regular season and crunch time for those fighting for a roster spot.  The days of soft toss, base covering drills, and outfield jogs are over.  We're well into the meat of the ST game schedule and now everything matters.  Early cuts have already taken and are continuing to take place as teams whittle their rosters down to the real contenders for the Opening Day 25-man, and with the Opening Day rosters starting to take shape the questions start to shift from "who's going to make it?" to "what are they going to do?"

It is with that shift in mind that we move into Week 2 of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview with the start of the "What We Know & What We Don't Know" series.  As always, we start with the infield.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: Season Storylines Wrap-Up

Week 1 of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview series is in the books, which means the start of the regular season is right around the corner.  If you were going to sum up the major storylines for the upcoming season with 1 word, I think that word would be "different".  Everything about this season feels a little different, including the offseason that was.  If you missed any of the individual "Season Storylines" posts from this past week, here they are.

- A Rotation in Transition

- Platoon City

- Tanakapalooza!

- Bridging The Gap

- The Captain Hangs 'Em Up

Starting tomorrow afternoon, we move into Week 2 of the season preview with the "What We Know & What We Don't Know" series, which breaks down the team by position group to get an idea of what the Opening Day roster is going to look like and what its strengths and weaknesses will be.  That series get started with the infield tomorrow.

2014 Storylines: The Captain Hangs 'Em Up

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

For almost 20 years now, Derek Jeter has been synonymous with the New York Yankees.  Pick almost any term to describe the Yankees as a team and chances are it will apply perfectly to Jeter too.  He's a winner, a champion, a professional.  He's been consistent, overrated at times, underrated at others.  He's been smart on and off the field, and downright selfish at times even as he maintains a spotless reputation as a "team first" guy in the mainstream sports media.

More than anything else, he's been one of the greatest Yankees and greatest shortstops of all time in his 19-year career, and last month he announced that this upcoming season, his 20th, would be his last.  Fresh off a season-long goodbye to perhaps the most beloved Yankee of all time last season, this year Yankee fans will get to repeat those emotions with perhaps the most respected Yankee of all time.  The Captain will give it one last go before calling it a career, putting a period on the end of one of the greatest shortstop careers in baseball history and signifying the official end to the Core Four Era.

2014 Storylines: Bridging The Gap

(Where do we go from here, Hal?  Courtesy of the AP)

Championship or bust.  That's the mentality in Yankeeland.  It's a mentality that has served them incredibly well during the Steinbrenner Family Era.  Say what you want about the methods, but it's hard to argue with the results.  Consistent postseason appearances, a bunch of division titles and AL pennants, and more than a fair share of championships.  These aren't things that every other team in MLB can lay claim to over the last 40 years.

Last season, the Yankees deviated from that mentality.  Concern over dollars and cents overrode the desire to win, and a haphazardly thrown together plan to get the team payroll below the luxury tax threshold was the main focus.  The on-field results predictably suffered as a result and the Yankees were completely shut out of the postseason for only the second time since 1994.  Jarred by those results, the front office returned to their old ways this past offseason, spending big on the free agent market and reloading the team for another playoff run.

While it was an impressive spending spree, the overall strategy this offseason doesn't appear to be a full return to the "championship or bust" ways of the past.  Instead, it comes off as a more tactful strategy, one designed to straddle the line between championship contention and rebuild and bridge the gap between the last 5-year generation of Yankee teams and the next generation.

2014 Storylines: Tanakapalooza!

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

The last time the Yankees tried to make a big splash on the international free agent market, they shelled out $46 million to a guy who looked like Droopy Dog and didn't even bother to verify what his pitch mix was.  That experiment predictably went down in flames and they'd been pretty quiet on the international front since then.

This past offseason, when the newest Japanese pitching sensation was available, the Yanks did a complete 180 from the Kei Igawa disaster.  They were in on this pitcher from the start, scouting more of his NPB games than any other MLB team, getting feedback from scouts, coaches, and players who had played with him, and engaging his agent on contract talks almost as soon as possible.  As we came to find out later, they'd actually been following this pitcher for years, preparing for the day when he would be eligible to jump to MLB.  All that due diligence worked to their advantage, and on January 22nd, 2014 the Yankees reaped the benefits by signing 25-year-old Masahiro Tanaka to a 7-year/$155 million deal.

In the 2-ish months that have passed, Tanaka has come to the states, joined the team at Spring Training, and began his transition to playing Major League Baseball.  Nothing he has done so far has been a small deal in the media and it comes as no surprise that everything he will do this season will be a huge deal.

2014 Storylines: Platoon City

(Kelly Johnson, king of the platoon possibilities.  Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

As baseball continues to evolve and become more specialized, platoons have become a common part of most team's lineups.  Rather than plug 1 player with a skill or 2 and a weakness or 2, or a substantial hitting split, into a full-time role, teams have learned that it's more valuable to split those roles up among 2 players to cover for their combined weaknesses and lessen the negative effect of that hitting split.  The Red Sox and the Rays are 2 teams that have utilized the platoon strategy to great success recently, and it's no coincidence that they've been 2 of the best teams in the American League.

The Yankees' strategy when it comes to platoons has been more reactionary over the past few seasons.  Rather than proactively attempt to build a lineup that includes 1 or 2 platoons, their attempts at utilizing them usually come as a response to injuries to their everyday starters.  That's a dangerous strategy to employ when the core of your lineup is as old as the Yankees' has been, and their failure to adequately prepare for the injury situations that have arisen in part led to the carousel of suck we saw at third base and shortstop in 2013.

The strategy has taken a small step forward with this season's roster construction, although it hasn't fully made the leap to completely proactive.  The Yankees enter the 2014 season with an array of platoon situations, some born out of injury-related necessity and some out of proactive strategy.  The effectiveness of these various platoons will be a season-long factor in determining how good this team can be.

2014 Storylines: A Rotation In Transition

(The symbolism.  Oh, the symbolism.  Courtesy of the AP)

There's nothing more important than starting pitching in today's MLB landscape.  It doesn't matter how many runs your lineup scores if your starter can't make those runs stand up, and if your lineup doesn't produce that many runs, you can still win games on the back of great starting pitching.  It's with that in mind that I kick off the 2014 "Season Storylines" series with a discussion of where the Yankee rotation finds itself heading into the 2014 season and where it might be heading in the near future.  There's a transition happening, one that could propel the Yankees back towards the top of the championship contender heap if things go right or one that could lead to their further decline down the contender ladder if they don't.

2014 AB4AR Season Preview Series Starts Tomorrow

("Best season preview in the woooooooorld!!!")

Tomorrow will mark the start of the final 3 weeks of Spring Training.  It will also be the official kickoff of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview series.  If you remember back to last season, I split the season preview up into 3 1-week series of posts, starting with the major high-level themes that will define the upcoming season, expanding to the major questions and answers about the season, and building up to the final, detailed preview of the Opening Day 25-man roster.  I think that format worked pretty well and I'm sticking with it this season.

Tomorrow we'll start the season preview off with "2014 Season Storylines" week, a daily look at the defining major storylines that the writers, bloggers, and fanbase will be talking about all year.  I'm sure people can already guess at what a few of them are going to be, but there are a few you might not have thought about yet so check back Monday afternoon for the first of 5.

Opening Day is a little over 22 days away.  The next 3 weeks will tell you everything you need to know to be ready for it.