Well I guess 23 out of 25 ain't bad, huh? I thought I had it nailed down this morning, but the Yankees hit me (and I'm sure many others) with a few surprises today. I covered some of this on the AB4AR Page earlier, but here's a quick recap of the day's roster events.
- David Phelps was named the long man out of the bullpen. I preferred D.J. Mitchell but you really can't say this is a bad choice. Phelps probably is a better pitcher than Mitchell and I always say bring your 25 best.
- Francisco Cervelli was NOT named the backup catcher. Instead, he will be heading to Triple-A to replace Austin Romine while Romine recovers from his back injury.
- Replacing Cervelli on the 25-man will be former Snan Francisco Giant and Yankee MiL catcher Chris Stewart. Stewart is an all-field/no-hit catcher if ever there was one, and he cost the Yankees George Kontos to get. Kontos was possibly undervalued as a potential relief arm, but not a huge loss.
- OF Justin Maxwell was designated for assignment, a move that wasn't surprising but a bit disappointing considering what he brings to the table as bench insurance for Andruw Jones. There's no chance he slips through the cracks like C-Dick did. Even if he clears waivers, Maxwell can choose free agency over a Triple-A assignment.
- IF Bill Hall was granted his release. He didn't have an out in his contract, but he requested it and the Yankees honored that request. One less thing I'll have to complain about this season.
- 3 other guys on MiL deals- Doug Bernier, Jayson Nix, and Dewayne Wise- were not offered roster spots by other teams and so will be retained as emergency depth in Triple-A.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Bullpen
(The man, the myth, the legend. Courtesy of The AP)
When last year's rotation was expected to be a weak link, the Yankees attempted to make up for it by signing Rafael Soriano and building a modern day version of the Nasty Boys in their 'pen. The plan didn't exactly pan out, as Joba went down early with TJS and Soriano spent the bulk of the season either on the DL or being only marginally effective, but all in all the 'pen still ended up being a strength for the Yanks. Mo was Mo, D-Rob stepped up in a big way to fill the void left by Joba and Sour Puss, and the rest of the group stepped up to provide quality innings. The majority of that group is back in the fold this year, with a few new faces sprinkled in, and the Yankee 'pen should once again be a strength for the team. With some breaking news today on the health status of one of the key pieces, there could be some last-minute changes coming to this group for Opening Day. But relief arms are a position of depth for the organization, and if the Yankees could piece together a solid relief corp last season there's no reason they can't do the same this year.
No matter who's filling in the 6 spots behind him, the Yankee bullpen always starts and ends with Mariano Rivera. This season could be the last time we're able to say that, but when it can still be said, that inspires a lot of confidence in the Yankees' ability to close out games. Mo bucked his usual Spring Training trend this year by showing up earlier, starting his work earlier, and pitching in games earlier, and it doesn't seem to have changed the results one bit. In 8 IP over 8 appearances this spring, Mo has allowed just 4 hits and has struck out 4 batters while walking none. He did allow an earned run for the first time since 2008 in a recent outing, but even Mo isn't perfect. He's healthy, his velocity and command is right where it always is, and he's right on track to have another dominant season. He's coming at hitters with the cutter, they know he's coming at them with the cutter, and there ain't a damn thing they can do about it. Every save he earns this season will be a record-setting one, and with the rest of the team around him there should be save opportunities aplenty for the G.O.A.T.
More after the jump
Final 25-Man Roster Prediction
There isn't much drama in making these selections thanks to recent injury developments. But since the rosters have to be set for Opening Day by 5PM today, I might as well submit the 25 players I think Joe will end up taking. I'm sure he's been waiting for me to give him a few last-minute pointers anyway. Probably not fair of me to keep him waiting any longer.
- Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez
- Outfielders: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez
- Catchers: Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli
- Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia
- Relief Pitchers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan, Cory Wade, Clay Rapada, D.J. Mitchell
There you have it. If I'm wrong, everybody gets one of the free AB4AR t-shirts that still don't exist.
- Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez
- Outfielders: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez
- Catchers: Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli
- Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia
- Relief Pitchers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan, Cory Wade, Clay Rapada, D.J. Mitchell
There you have it. If I'm wrong, everybody gets one of the free AB4AR t-shirts that still don't exist.
Andy Takes The Mound Today
“I bounced back pretty good after that last one, so we feel like an inning would be good tomorrow. I realized I feel good enough to pitch.”
And with that statement, it became official that Andy Pettitte would pitch in Spring Training. He's been working hard since the day he announced he was coming back- going through drills and exercises to build up strength, throwing bullpens, throwing BP, throwing simulated games- and now that tomorrow has become today and today Andy Pettitte will once again take the hill as a New York Yankee.
I know I wasn't as super-jacked as most other people about Andy's return when it was first announced. I kept looking at it strictly from a baseball perspective, probably too much of a future baseball perspective, and I questioned whether mixing Andy in with the young stable of pitchers would help or hurt their development if they ended up being the one who was kicked out of the rotation for him. As it turns out, that was the wrong way to think about it and it was an incredibly smart move to make by the Yankees. For someone like Andy, it was wrong of me to put my fan side aside for the baseball side and question people's motivations. Just another example of why Cash is making the baseball decisions I'm sitting at a desk writing a blog.
When Andy retired, I honestly thought it was for good. The timing was right, he had nothing left to prove, and there hadn't been any hints that he was even remotely interested in coming back until he popped up at camp this year. As much as we all didn't want to see him go, he really had no reason to stay, at least until last December when he got the itch again. Now he's back, he's healthy, and he looks good so far, almost like he never left.
I have no way of knowing how Andy is going to pitch today against the Mets or this season against everybody else at age 40. None of us do. But right now, I really don't even care about that. This afternoon, something is going to happen that I never thought I would see happen again. Andy Pettitte, one of my favorite Yankees of all time, is going to take the mound and pitch in a Major League Baseball game wearing the Yankee colors, and that's pretty damn cool.
(Quote courtesy of The AP)
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Rotation
(Hey new guy! Courtesy of The AP)
For the first time in what seems like ages, the Yankees enter a season without major questions in the rotation. Sure, there are still questions, but not of the usual "Who's going to be the __th starter?" variety that has been the norm for the past few years. The Yankees went out this offseason and made moves to fortify both the depth and the talent level of their rotation, starting with the new contract for CC and ending with the surprise signing and un-retirement of Andrew Eugene Pettitte. There have been a few bumps in the road in Spring Training leading up to the final determination of the starting 5, and some who were thought to be a part of the Opening Day rotation won't be, but the Yankees head into the 2012 season with a no-doubt starting 5 intact and plenty of reserves on standby to cover for injuries or ineffectiveness. The 2011 rotation ended up being sneaky good, much better than most people anticipated. Expectations are much higher for 2012's group and they should be. Despite the recent injury issues, there is no reason that the rotation can't be a major strength for the Bombers in 2012.
Starting at the top, CC Sabathia will once again be the ace of the staff, and as aces go you can't do a whole lot better than CC. He's big, he's durable, he gives his team lots of innings, and he produces at a Cy Young-worthy level in those innings. At this point, CC's transformation from thrower to pitcher is complete, as he has a firm grasp on all the pitchers in his arsenal and knows how to use them all to be effective against any type of hitter and any lineup. The hefty lefty is coming off of his best season in pinstripes (3.00/2.88/3.02 with 8.72 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 in 237.1 IP in 2011) and will be looking to build on that with another re-commitment to managing his weight. He shed some pounds before arriving at camp last year, but over the course of the season put it all back on. He has dropped a few LBs again in 2012, and is planning to make a concerted effor to keep it off and keep himself fresh over the long haul. Despite his size, CC has never been a big injury risk, but as he starts to transition further into his 30s that injury risk becomes greater and the Yankees want to do everything they can to keep him healthy. He's struggled with his command a bit in camp this year, specifically his fastball, but right now there's no reason to expect anything other than another stellar year from him.
More after the jump
D.J. Mitchell For Long Reliever
The injuries to Michael Pineda and Cesar Cabral this past weekend added a little spice to what was going to be a rather boring final decision on the 25-man roster this week. The only real question was whether Cabral or Clay Rapada was going to get the final bullpen spot, and no offense to those guys but a "Rapada vs. Cabral" battle doesn't exactly get the media all stirred up. A second opening in the bullpen was created when Freddy Garcia was moved into Pineda's spot in the rotation, and the leading candidates for his long relief role are the trio of D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, and Adam Warren. Those names doesn't exactly sell papers either, but they are the best options to fill what could become an important role in the bullpen once the season starts. The Yankees could throw a curveball and add another position player or send down Cory Wade, but I'm banking on Joe's familiarity with Wade being enough to give Wade a spot. I also think Wade getting that spot with how poorly he's pitched this spring necessitates another relief option in the 'pen, and I'm publicly throwing my support behind D.J. Mitchell for the role.
Mitchell has always been looked at as a relief conversion candidate internally because of his makeup. He's got 3 decent offerings, but nothing overwhelming and nothing that profiles as a big-time strikeout pitch. He also has the least consistent fastball command out of himself, Phelps, and Warren, something that dropped him below the other two in most every side-by-side-by-side prospect comparison. Because of these two factors, the perception has always been that Mitchell would struggle to mix pitches and get guys out the 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup at the Major League level and that he might be better served maximizing the value of his offerings in shorter outings. From his collection of 2-seamer, 4-seamer, slider, change, he should be able to find the 2, maybe 3 that work best in short outings and focus on developing those for relief purposes.
The other thing Mitchell has going for him is that he's worked exclusively in a relief role this spring, whereas Phelps and Warren have thrown more pitches and more innings to stretch themselves out as starters for Triple-A. All 6 of his Spring Training appearances have been in relief and all 6 have been between 2-3 innings, exactly what the Yankees would be looking to get out of their long man. Mitchell's overall ST line of 14.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 8 BB, 12 K isn't head-over-heels great, but when you factor out his bad outing against Detroit on 3/24 the remaining line of 11.I IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K is pretty damn good and a sign that there might be something to the theory of Mitchell's stuff playing up a bit out of the 'pen. It's also worth noting that Mitchell has been experimenting with a cutter this spring, and his attempts to work it into his repertoire during games could be a contributing factor to his recent outings not being as solid as his first few.
Mitchell was moved to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft, so the Yankees obviously see value in him and likely realize they are getting to the point of "you-know-what or get off the pot" time with him. They won't have to make any funky moves to get him onto the 25-man to open the season, and his presence in the Major League bullpen would open up a much-needed spot in the Triple-A rotation for Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda to complete their prep/rehab work when the time comes. The Yankees could also use this as an opportunity to showcase Mitchell to teams interested in trading for him and ease a potential logjam in the Triple-A rotation that could creep up later in the season. And who knows? Maybe Mitchell finds something with this new cutter and finds his calling a late-inning stopper. There is really no downside to this move and everything is already set up to make it a smooth, painless transition. D.J. Mitchell as the 25th man to open the season should be a no-brainer.
Mitchell has always been looked at as a relief conversion candidate internally because of his makeup. He's got 3 decent offerings, but nothing overwhelming and nothing that profiles as a big-time strikeout pitch. He also has the least consistent fastball command out of himself, Phelps, and Warren, something that dropped him below the other two in most every side-by-side-by-side prospect comparison. Because of these two factors, the perception has always been that Mitchell would struggle to mix pitches and get guys out the 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup at the Major League level and that he might be better served maximizing the value of his offerings in shorter outings. From his collection of 2-seamer, 4-seamer, slider, change, he should be able to find the 2, maybe 3 that work best in short outings and focus on developing those for relief purposes.
The other thing Mitchell has going for him is that he's worked exclusively in a relief role this spring, whereas Phelps and Warren have thrown more pitches and more innings to stretch themselves out as starters for Triple-A. All 6 of his Spring Training appearances have been in relief and all 6 have been between 2-3 innings, exactly what the Yankees would be looking to get out of their long man. Mitchell's overall ST line of 14.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 8 BB, 12 K isn't head-over-heels great, but when you factor out his bad outing against Detroit on 3/24 the remaining line of 11.I IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K is pretty damn good and a sign that there might be something to the theory of Mitchell's stuff playing up a bit out of the 'pen. It's also worth noting that Mitchell has been experimenting with a cutter this spring, and his attempts to work it into his repertoire during games could be a contributing factor to his recent outings not being as solid as his first few.
Mitchell was moved to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft, so the Yankees obviously see value in him and likely realize they are getting to the point of "you-know-what or get off the pot" time with him. They won't have to make any funky moves to get him onto the 25-man to open the season, and his presence in the Major League bullpen would open up a much-needed spot in the Triple-A rotation for Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda to complete their prep/rehab work when the time comes. The Yankees could also use this as an opportunity to showcase Mitchell to teams interested in trading for him and ease a potential logjam in the Triple-A rotation that could creep up later in the season. And who knows? Maybe Mitchell finds something with this new cutter and finds his calling a late-inning stopper. There is really no downside to this move and everything is already set up to make it a smooth, painless transition. D.J. Mitchell as the 25th man to open the season should be a no-brainer.
The End Of The Yankees' 2012 FA Pitcher Search
Take a look at this blind career comparison of 3 starting pitchers:
- Player A: 3.35/3.69/4.26, 7.41 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 25.0 bWAR
- Player B: 3.39/3.63/3.42, 8.45 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 22.5 bWAR
- Player C: 3.82/3.51/3.68, 7.96 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 24.4 bWAR
Which one would you want on your team? You really can't go wrong with any of the 3 to be honest. That's 3 top flight starting pitchers all in the prime of their careers at ages 27 (A) and 28 (B and C). Player A is actually Matt Cain, who became the richest right-hander in baseball yesterday by signing a new 6-year/$127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. Player B is Cole Hamels and Player C is Zack Greinke, and collectively these 3 would have made one of the best classes of free agent pitchers in baseball history after the 2012 season. The Yankees could have been major players in that market, but after seeing what Cain got from San Fran I think it's safe to say the Yankees' pursuit of any of these 3 is over before it started.
Cain is a helluva pitcher, but the argument could be made that he's the third best out of this group. If he's pulling in over $21 mil per year in his new deal, that all but guarantees Hamels and Greinke will get more. Hamels' numbers are better than Cain's almost across the board and he has the added benefit of being left-handed. Greinke's numbers stack up favorably to Cain's as well and he has a Cy Young under his belt and a track record of success in both leagues. If Cain is pulling $21 mil, these other 2 are going to get more, and with the self-imposed 2014 payroll cap looming over them, that kind of money is going to be too rich for the Yankees' blood.
Chances are the Yankees weren't going to be heavily involved with these 3 anyway after making the Pineda trade, but if the price tags could have stayed in the $18-20 million range maybe we would have seen them make an offer. No chance of that happening now, assuming Hamels and Greinke even make it to free agency. Michael, Ivan, Phil, Manny? You guys just became even more important.
- Player A: 3.35/3.69/4.26, 7.41 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 25.0 bWAR
- Player B: 3.39/3.63/3.42, 8.45 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 22.5 bWAR
- Player C: 3.82/3.51/3.68, 7.96 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 24.4 bWAR
Which one would you want on your team? You really can't go wrong with any of the 3 to be honest. That's 3 top flight starting pitchers all in the prime of their careers at ages 27 (A) and 28 (B and C). Player A is actually Matt Cain, who became the richest right-hander in baseball yesterday by signing a new 6-year/$127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. Player B is Cole Hamels and Player C is Zack Greinke, and collectively these 3 would have made one of the best classes of free agent pitchers in baseball history after the 2012 season. The Yankees could have been major players in that market, but after seeing what Cain got from San Fran I think it's safe to say the Yankees' pursuit of any of these 3 is over before it started.
Cain is a helluva pitcher, but the argument could be made that he's the third best out of this group. If he's pulling in over $21 mil per year in his new deal, that all but guarantees Hamels and Greinke will get more. Hamels' numbers are better than Cain's almost across the board and he has the added benefit of being left-handed. Greinke's numbers stack up favorably to Cain's as well and he has a Cy Young under his belt and a track record of success in both leagues. If Cain is pulling $21 mil, these other 2 are going to get more, and with the self-imposed 2014 payroll cap looming over them, that kind of money is going to be too rich for the Yankees' blood.
Chances are the Yankees weren't going to be heavily involved with these 3 anyway after making the Pineda trade, but if the price tags could have stayed in the $18-20 million range maybe we would have seen them make an offer. No chance of that happening now, assuming Hamels and Greinke even make it to free agency. Michael, Ivan, Phil, Manny? You guys just became even more important.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Hip Looks Good...
(Courtesy of MLB.com)
Do not sleep on The Horse, people. Do not sleep on The Horse.
ST Thoughts & Afterthoughts: The Third
("Alright, everybody. Remember to study those matchup binders!" Courtesy of The AP)
It's the last week of Spring Training this week, so it seems like the perfect time to go through the last batch of random Spring Training thoughts rattling around in my head before the regular season begins, right? Right.
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Lineup
(3/4 of the best infield in baseball or... ?)
The 2012 New York Yankees lineup will look almost identical to the one they put on the field for the majority of the 2011 season. For a big budget team with all its big guys under contract, that's not very surprising. What is surprising is the path the Yankees chose to take in changing the lineup this season, as what was supposed to be an injection of youth in the form of Jesus Montero as the everyday DH turned into a blockbuster trade to improve the rotation and a subsequent cost-conscious signing of an aging player not much younger than Jorge Posada was when he was the Opening Day DH last year. There might be a bit of a course for concern here, as there are some members of the Yankee lineup who have settled into the downside of their careers, and a young bat like Montero's could have been the perfect way to balance the past and present that those players represent with the future that Montero represented. Even in the downside, however, the Yankee veterans are still capable of producing at an above-average level. It's exactly how far above the above-average level that will determine whether this lineup takes a step back towards the rest of the pack or once again lays claim to being the best lineup in baseball.
At the top of the order, things will look the same as they did last season with the The Captain, Derek Jeter, leading off again. Jeter is coming off a major up-and-down season in 2011, with the first half being way down and the second half being way up. He'll be looking to build off that strong finish to his 2011 and after a slow start in camp, and another calf injury, he has picked it up recently at the plate and still looks to have enough bat speed to be effective. His defense at short is what it is at this point, and expecting a repeat of his 2011 second half for a full season might be overreaching, but another solid all-around year would go a long way in building confidence that Jeter can remain useful through the remaining life of his contract.
Hitting behind Jeter will once again be center fielder Curtis Granderson, coming off a career year and a year not had by a Yankee outfielder in quite some time. Curtis has come out of the gate swinging in 2012 and looks primed to put together another MVP-caliber season. Projections across the board have him slated for a drop in power production, which is reasonable to expect after the 41 home runs he put up last year. But Granderson is so tuned in to his new swing mechanics that he can recognize when his swing is on and when it's not, something that could never be said about Granderson before. Even if the HR numbers drop, Granderson's increasing self-awareness at the plate and goal to cut down on strikeouts could lead to another monster year without the 40+ dingers.
More after the jump
Sunday, April 1, 2012
2012 AB4AR Minor League Season Preview: The Upper Levels
The lower levels were looked at yesterday, and there's a lot to like down there, but those kids are all still at least 2 years away from putting on the real Yankee pinstripes. Today we look at the top levels of the system, where players are much closer to reaching the show, some perhaps as early as this month.
High-A Tampa Yankees
They don't have the quantity or the "wow" factor of the talent collection in Charleston, but there's plenty of talent to be had in Tampa this year, starting at the front and back ends of the pitching staff. Nik Turley, the big left-hander, had a breakout season last year and had it cut short after breaking his pitching hand. He'll be the ace of the rotation that will also feature Jose Ramirez, who despite having a rough 2011 is still young enough and still has the raw stuff to become a notable prospect name again. Hopefully closing out a lot of their wins in the bullpen will be the dynamic duo of Mark Montgomery and Branden Pinder, arguably the 2 best relief prospects in the entire Yankee system and the leaders of the "D-Rob Clone" Club. Tommy Kahnle will be joining them after completing his ExST rehab, as will a former starting prospect looking to re-establish himself in Jairo Heredia.
Offensively, the biggest name is J.R Murphy, who will follow up his breakout season in 2011 by being the starting catcher in Tampa, at least until Gary Sanchez gets called up. Murphy's ability to play multiple positions will guarantee him ABs no matter what. Next to Murphy, Ramon Flores, Rob Segedin, and Kyle Roller are the 3 most recognizable names in the lineup, and all will be looking to prove their worth as legit prospects. Slade Heathcott will miss the opening of the season as he is still recovering from shoulder surgery, and it's still yet to be determined on when he can actually return to action. It could be a make or break year for Heathcott this year.
Double-A Trenton Thunder
If there's a roster less sexy than Tampa, it might be Trenton's. The 2 names that bring any sizzle are Brett Marshall, who will be the hands down best starter in a rotation full of organizational filler, and Zoilo Almonte, who earned himself a spot on the 40-man roster after a big 2011 and will be looking to continue that momentum towards a possible future job in the big league outfield. Both of these guys impressed the Yankees' coaching staff in big league camp this spring, Almonte by going 4-14 with 4 RBI and and Marshall by throwing 6 innings of 2-run ball with 7 strikeouts over 3 appearances, and could work their way into the top 10 of many 2012-2013 top prospects lists with good 2012 campaigns.
After Marshall and Almonte, the next 2 most interesting names are second baseman David Adams and starting pitcher Graham Stoneburner, both looking to bounce back from injury woes. Adams has missed almost 2 full seasons after his horrific ankle injury (a common theme lately) and Stoneburner had a wasted 2011 with neck issues. Other guys of note include infielder Ronnier Mustelier, shortstop Jose Pirela, and relief pitcher Chase Whitley. The lineup could become more interesting after some mid-season promotions (Murphy, Flores), but outside of Almonte there really isn't a legit big-time hitting prospect to be found.
Triple-A Empire State Yankees
They've got a new name for the 2012 season thanks to their stadium renovations making them a homeless home team this year, but the pitching depth that was Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's calling card in 2011 is still intact. Their starting rotation includes 5 guys who could all conceivably be starting in the Major Leagues this year, headlined by unanimous top 5 Yankee prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. Those guys get the ink, but the unheralded trio of David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, and Adam Warren are all worth taking notice of as well and will be above ManBan and Betances in the pecking order if this group's services are required in the Majors. In fact, recent injury developments could land one of these 3 a job right out of camp. For Banuelos and Betances, this season should be their final opportunity to refine their repertoires and build innings before making their Major League debuts in 2013.
A glimpse of the lineup doesn't show a lot of promise, but there are a few names of note. Austin Romine will be the full-time starting catcher for Empire State this year, at least he will be whenever he gets over the back problems that have been plaguing him. Another down year like last year could kill Romine's stock as a legit Major League catching prospect. Corban Joseph continues his methodical rise through the system by nailing down the second base job, and could be called up to the Majors in a pinch, as could third baseman Brandon Laird. Beyond these 3, there are a lot of names that could be used to plug holes in the 25-man roster (Whelan, Pope, Delcarmen, Pena, Curtis, Cust, and maybe even Branyan eventually), but nothing nearly as exciting as Banuelos.
They don't have the quantity or the "wow" factor of the talent collection in Charleston, but there's plenty of talent to be had in Tampa this year, starting at the front and back ends of the pitching staff. Nik Turley, the big left-hander, had a breakout season last year and had it cut short after breaking his pitching hand. He'll be the ace of the rotation that will also feature Jose Ramirez, who despite having a rough 2011 is still young enough and still has the raw stuff to become a notable prospect name again. Hopefully closing out a lot of their wins in the bullpen will be the dynamic duo of Mark Montgomery and Branden Pinder, arguably the 2 best relief prospects in the entire Yankee system and the leaders of the "D-Rob Clone" Club. Tommy Kahnle will be joining them after completing his ExST rehab, as will a former starting prospect looking to re-establish himself in Jairo Heredia.
Offensively, the biggest name is J.R Murphy, who will follow up his breakout season in 2011 by being the starting catcher in Tampa, at least until Gary Sanchez gets called up. Murphy's ability to play multiple positions will guarantee him ABs no matter what. Next to Murphy, Ramon Flores, Rob Segedin, and Kyle Roller are the 3 most recognizable names in the lineup, and all will be looking to prove their worth as legit prospects. Slade Heathcott will miss the opening of the season as he is still recovering from shoulder surgery, and it's still yet to be determined on when he can actually return to action. It could be a make or break year for Heathcott this year.
If there's a roster less sexy than Tampa, it might be Trenton's. The 2 names that bring any sizzle are Brett Marshall, who will be the hands down best starter in a rotation full of organizational filler, and Zoilo Almonte, who earned himself a spot on the 40-man roster after a big 2011 and will be looking to continue that momentum towards a possible future job in the big league outfield. Both of these guys impressed the Yankees' coaching staff in big league camp this spring, Almonte by going 4-14 with 4 RBI and and Marshall by throwing 6 innings of 2-run ball with 7 strikeouts over 3 appearances, and could work their way into the top 10 of many 2012-2013 top prospects lists with good 2012 campaigns.
After Marshall and Almonte, the next 2 most interesting names are second baseman David Adams and starting pitcher Graham Stoneburner, both looking to bounce back from injury woes. Adams has missed almost 2 full seasons after his horrific ankle injury (a common theme lately) and Stoneburner had a wasted 2011 with neck issues. Other guys of note include infielder Ronnier Mustelier, shortstop Jose Pirela, and relief pitcher Chase Whitley. The lineup could become more interesting after some mid-season promotions (Murphy, Flores), but outside of Almonte there really isn't a legit big-time hitting prospect to be found.
They've got a new name for the 2012 season thanks to their stadium renovations making them a homeless home team this year, but the pitching depth that was Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's calling card in 2011 is still intact. Their starting rotation includes 5 guys who could all conceivably be starting in the Major Leagues this year, headlined by unanimous top 5 Yankee prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. Those guys get the ink, but the unheralded trio of David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, and Adam Warren are all worth taking notice of as well and will be above ManBan and Betances in the pecking order if this group's services are required in the Majors. In fact, recent injury developments could land one of these 3 a job right out of camp. For Banuelos and Betances, this season should be their final opportunity to refine their repertoires and build innings before making their Major League debuts in 2013.
A glimpse of the lineup doesn't show a lot of promise, but there are a few names of note. Austin Romine will be the full-time starting catcher for Empire State this year, at least he will be whenever he gets over the back problems that have been plaguing him. Another down year like last year could kill Romine's stock as a legit Major League catching prospect. Corban Joseph continues his methodical rise through the system by nailing down the second base job, and could be called up to the Majors in a pinch, as could third baseman Brandon Laird. Beyond these 3, there are a lot of names that could be used to plug holes in the 25-man roster (Whelan, Pope, Delcarmen, Pena, Curtis, Cust, and maybe even Branyan eventually), but nothing nearly as exciting as Banuelos.
AB4AR 2012 Season Preview Continues Tomorrow
The knowns and unknowns have been covered, the Minor Leagues will be finished later today, so the only thing left is to finally preview the 2012 New York Yankees. A few big things happened this week that could make the season play out differently than we thought it would, and starting tomorrow all of it will be covered. The schedule for the final week of the official 2012 AB4AR Season Preview Series is as follows:
Monday- The Lineup
Tuesday- The Rotation
Wednesday- The Bullpen
Thursday- The Bench
Friday- The Prediction and 10 Bold Predictions for the 2012 Yankees
If you missed any of the "Knowns/Unknowns" posts from this week, here they are:
- The Infield, The Outfield, The Rotation, The Bullpen, The Bench
Monday- The Lineup
Tuesday- The Rotation
Wednesday- The Bullpen
Thursday- The Bench
Friday- The Prediction and 10 Bold Predictions for the 2012 Yankees
If you missed any of the "Knowns/Unknowns" posts from this week, here they are:
- The Infield, The Outfield, The Rotation, The Bullpen, The Bench
Saturday, March 31, 2012
2012 AB4AR Minor League Season Preview: The Lower Levels
With the herd being thinned out through cuts at Major League camp, the Minor League spring training work has gathered pace over the past few weeks. With Josh Norris releasing the roster breakdowns yesterday, the pictures are becoming more and more clear for each level of the Yankee farm system, at least to start the season, which makes it as good a time as any to take care of the season previews for each team. We'll start with the lower levels, the rookie GCL, Short Season Staten Island, and Low-A Charleston, today and finish with the upper levels tomorrow.
Rookie Gulf Coast League Yankees
The majority of this roster will be filled out by 2012 draft picks, but there are a few names already in the system worth keeping an eye on for the GCL Yankees, including pitchers Jordan Cote and Hayden Sharp. Some of the Yankees' recent international signings could also make their American professional debuts in the GCL this year, but the most interesting possibility could be Rafael DePaula, the 21-year-old right hander who finally got his US work visa and began his Yankee career with a bullpen session and simulated game this week. He's got great stuff and an easy release, and talent-wise is probably well suited for a full-season A-ball league. But with the Yankees having seen very little of him, they could decide to be cautious and send him to the GCL club or Staten Island after he completes his work in Extended Spring Training.
Short Season Staten Island Yankees
The biggest name amongst the group here will be Ravel Santana, still working his way back from the bad ankle injury that prematurely ended his 2011 debut season. If he shows no lingering effects of the injury and produces similar to how he was last season, he could be promoted quickly, but there's no reason for the Yankees to rush him. There is a lot of talent around Santana in the lineup, mainly guys drafted last season who didn't get the promotion to a full-season league like Dante Bichette, Jr. did such as catcher Greg Bird, third baseman Matt Duran, and outfielder Jake Cave. It will be interesting to see how Bird's playing time is managed with 20-year-old Isaias Tejada and his .443 wOBA from the GCL last season also in the fold.
Up the middle, Staten Island has a pair of prospects who don't get the ink that other Yankee IF prospects do but are definitely worth keeping an eye on in Claudio Custodio and Jose Rosario. On the mound, the staff will be led by Gabe Encinas and Evan Rutckyj, two names I had just off my AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list, as well as right-handed Taylor Morton. Rookie Davis and Daniel Camarena are 2 other names to remember.
Low-A Charleston River Dogs
If you're a prospect hugger then this is where the majority of your attention will be this year. The River Dogs lineup could sub for a Low-A All Star team minus a few spots, with Gary Sanchez returning to start the season in Charleston as the catcher and Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams making their full-season debuts at third base and center field respectively. It will be interesting to see how long Sanchez stays at this level before getting bumped up to Tampa, especially with the Bird-Tejada logjam behind him. Williams will be flanked by sleeper prospect Ben Gamel in left field and converted third baseman Tyler Austin and his bag of tools in right. If my biggest mistake in my Top 30 wasn't having Austin all the way down at 30, it might have been leaving second baseman Angelo Gumbs off the list altogether. He and Cito Culver round out the collection of talented names in the lineup as they look to continue to progress towards becoming the Yankees' double play combo of the future.
On the mound, the stars of the show will be righties Bryan Mitchell, making the jump to a full-season league after 2 years in the system, and Jose Campos, the other piece acquired in the Monter-Pineda trade in January. Unfortunately, Josh Norris has Evan DeLuca and Matt Tracy penciled in for rehab work to start the season, but eventually both of them should join Mitchell and Campos to make a very talented rotation. Out of the bullpen, Phil Wetherall and Caleb Cotham are the 2 big names to watch, and don't sleep on Mariel Checo and his stuff.
** Coming up tomorrow- previews for High-A Tampa, Double-A Trenton, and Triple-A Empire State. **
The majority of this roster will be filled out by 2012 draft picks, but there are a few names already in the system worth keeping an eye on for the GCL Yankees, including pitchers Jordan Cote and Hayden Sharp. Some of the Yankees' recent international signings could also make their American professional debuts in the GCL this year, but the most interesting possibility could be Rafael DePaula, the 21-year-old right hander who finally got his US work visa and began his Yankee career with a bullpen session and simulated game this week. He's got great stuff and an easy release, and talent-wise is probably well suited for a full-season A-ball league. But with the Yankees having seen very little of him, they could decide to be cautious and send him to the GCL club or Staten Island after he completes his work in Extended Spring Training.
The biggest name amongst the group here will be Ravel Santana, still working his way back from the bad ankle injury that prematurely ended his 2011 debut season. If he shows no lingering effects of the injury and produces similar to how he was last season, he could be promoted quickly, but there's no reason for the Yankees to rush him. There is a lot of talent around Santana in the lineup, mainly guys drafted last season who didn't get the promotion to a full-season league like Dante Bichette, Jr. did such as catcher Greg Bird, third baseman Matt Duran, and outfielder Jake Cave. It will be interesting to see how Bird's playing time is managed with 20-year-old Isaias Tejada and his .443 wOBA from the GCL last season also in the fold.
Up the middle, Staten Island has a pair of prospects who don't get the ink that other Yankee IF prospects do but are definitely worth keeping an eye on in Claudio Custodio and Jose Rosario. On the mound, the staff will be led by Gabe Encinas and Evan Rutckyj, two names I had just off my AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list, as well as right-handed Taylor Morton. Rookie Davis and Daniel Camarena are 2 other names to remember.
If you're a prospect hugger then this is where the majority of your attention will be this year. The River Dogs lineup could sub for a Low-A All Star team minus a few spots, with Gary Sanchez returning to start the season in Charleston as the catcher and Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams making their full-season debuts at third base and center field respectively. It will be interesting to see how long Sanchez stays at this level before getting bumped up to Tampa, especially with the Bird-Tejada logjam behind him. Williams will be flanked by sleeper prospect Ben Gamel in left field and converted third baseman Tyler Austin and his bag of tools in right. If my biggest mistake in my Top 30 wasn't having Austin all the way down at 30, it might have been leaving second baseman Angelo Gumbs off the list altogether. He and Cito Culver round out the collection of talented names in the lineup as they look to continue to progress towards becoming the Yankees' double play combo of the future.
On the mound, the stars of the show will be righties Bryan Mitchell, making the jump to a full-season league after 2 years in the system, and Jose Campos, the other piece acquired in the Monter-Pineda trade in January. Unfortunately, Josh Norris has Evan DeLuca and Matt Tracy penciled in for rehab work to start the season, but eventually both of them should join Mitchell and Campos to make a very talented rotation. Out of the bullpen, Phil Wetherall and Caleb Cotham are the 2 big names to watch, and don't sleep on Mariel Checo and his stuff.
** Coming up tomorrow- previews for High-A Tampa, Double-A Trenton, and Triple-A Empire State. **
Pineda To The DL With Shoulder Inflammation
(Courtesy of The AP)
Somehow I don't think this is what Cash had in mind when he made the big trade back in January to bring Michael Pineda to the Bronx. After a spring full of questions and storylines about Pineda's physical condition and velocity, everything came to a head last night when he failed to make it out of the 3rd inning in his final ST start, allowing 6 earned runs on 10 combined hits and walks and then complaining of soreness in his right shoulder. Pineda was scheduled for an MRI this morning and multiple beat guys are reporting that the MRI revealed inflammation in the right shoulder. Now, instead of being the team's #2 starter behind CC, the scenario that Cash and the entire organization surely envisioned when they pulled the trigger on the trade, Pineda will open the season on the DL.
There are already multiple theories coming out on why this happened. Pineda reportedly didn't work out at all over the winter and came into camp overweight, which certainly could have explained the diminished velocity all spring. He could have been using spring camp to pitch himself into shape, and Joe commented last night after the game that Pineda's mechanics were different last night, suggesting he was trying to overthrow to add velocity. Both Cash and Joe said last night that they have asked Pineda multiple times during ST if his arm felt alright and every time he said it was fine, until last night. There's no way to know for sure how long his shoulder had been bothering him, but it's not unreasonable to think that Pineda was trying to push through the injury knowing he was in a competition for a rotation spot this spring.
To be honest, I really don't know how I feel about all of this right now. I've been one of the biggest Pineda supporters this spring, constantly banging the "don't worry about his velocity, he's pitching fine" drum and preaching patience with the kid and now this happens. All the comparisons to Phil Hughes' 2011 that I've been trying to brush aside now look far more realistic and I can't help but question if this entire season will end up being a wash for Pineda much like 2011 was for Hughes.
I'm surprised that the Yankees didn't do their due diligence in checking on what Pineda had been doing during the offseason to prepare when they were discussing the trade, and would be even more surprised if they did check and still decided to make the trade anyway. That would go against everything the organization stands for when evaluating players. At the same time, I'm relieved that all the MRI showed was inflammation, and Pineda will only be on the 15-day DL instead of the 60-day. At his age, and with his upside, this is not the end of the world and the Yankees can still come out in the positive on the trade if Pineda can fully recover and get in better shape.
No matter where you stood on Pineda this spring, almost everybody was in agreement that the Yankees' surplus of pitching depth was a good problem to have and this latest development proves why. They lose a potentially dominant piece of the rotation but are still covered with CC, Kuroda, Nova, Hughes, and Freddy to open the season, with Andy waiting in the wings. That being said, it's still disappointing that a trade for what should have been a #2 starter and key piece of the rotation for the long-term future has resulted in these negative early returns.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Friday Afternoon "One Week 'Til Opening Day" Linkapalooza: 3/30
We're one week away from Yankees Opening Day, people. This time next week we can put aside the talk of velocity, platoons, injury concerns, and roster battles and just kick back and watch some baseball, which is awesome. I still have to figure out how I'm going to watch the game, since I'm a cheapskate and don't have any kind of MLB viewing package on my TV or computer. But at least I won't have to miss the game because I'm stuck at work. Good Friday indeed! Onto the links.
- On Monday, Ran Shulman of Yanks Go Yard welcomed D-Rob back to the bullpen by giving a refresher course on just how nasty Robertson was in 2011 and how valuable he is for 2012.
- On Tuesday, Rebel Yankee Chick flirted with the Dark Side by taking the Fenway Paahhk tou-ah. She gave it a positive review.
- Trevor Wolff of Sliding Into Home posted a friendly reminder to not dismiss the Yankees' relief pitching prospects. Given how good some of them have been early in their careers, I would have to agree with Trevor.
- Rob Steingall of Pinstripe Alley offered up his picks for prospects he'll be keeping a close watch on this season, and I commend him for picking guys outside the normal group.
- Joe Pawlikowski of RAB debated whether the Yankees should trade or hold some of their players who have been drawing interest from other teams, specifically Freddy, Ramiro Pena, and Justin Maxwell.
- On Wednesday, Bryan V of The Greedy Pinstripes explained why he feels Russell Martin is the most important player in the Yankee lineup, at least from a health standpoint. I can buy that.
- Greg Corcoran of Bronx Baseball Daily scoured the Yankees' MiL affiliates to identify the players who he thinks could be fast risers through the system this season.
- Matt Filippi of Beyond the Box Score offered his 2012 season preview for the Yankees, touching on their improved rotation and age concerns in the lineup.
- On Thursday, Jamie Insalaco of Bomber Banter made his 2012 predictions. He sees rebounds for Hughes and The Horse and another AL East title for the Yankees.
- Hippeaux of IIATMS discussed the trend in baseball of shuffling guys from the bullpen to the rotation, touching on the Yankees' recent following of the trend with Hughes and Joba.
- Fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite looked at the evolution of the Yankees' strategy when building their rotation and the shift to focusing more on homegrown pitching talent.
- Dave Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweet Spot set the over/under for Yankee wins at 93.5 and inquired about their ability to reach 100. I'm not sure about 100, but I would definitely take the over on 93.5.
- Today, Mike Eder of TYA crunched the numbers on Teix's ST at-bats to show just how much he's focused on hitting the other way from the left side. Hopefully that carries over to the regular season and translates into an overall improvement in his stats.
- Mike did the same thing on Wednesday with Phil Hughes' batted ball profile to show the improvements in Hughes' game this spring.
For the Friday Jam, I'm going back to my middle school days with some Orgy. They've recently reformed, although lead singer Jay Gordon is the only original member still involved, but they're still pretty badass. I remember being 13 years old when their "Blue Monday" cover started to become popular and thinking I was the coolest cat on the block because I bought a CD called "Candyass" by a band named "Orgy." Hell, I'm 26 now and I still think it's cool that the band is called "Orgy." I don't think it came with a parental advisory sticker, but I definitely hid it from my folks for a while. I was such a loser back then. Anyway, if you're somehow still an Orgy fan like I am, you'll appreciate this one from 1999.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody.
- On Monday, Ran Shulman of Yanks Go Yard welcomed D-Rob back to the bullpen by giving a refresher course on just how nasty Robertson was in 2011 and how valuable he is for 2012.
- On Tuesday, Rebel Yankee Chick flirted with the Dark Side by taking the Fenway Paahhk tou-ah. She gave it a positive review.
- Trevor Wolff of Sliding Into Home posted a friendly reminder to not dismiss the Yankees' relief pitching prospects. Given how good some of them have been early in their careers, I would have to agree with Trevor.
- Rob Steingall of Pinstripe Alley offered up his picks for prospects he'll be keeping a close watch on this season, and I commend him for picking guys outside the normal group.
- Joe Pawlikowski of RAB debated whether the Yankees should trade or hold some of their players who have been drawing interest from other teams, specifically Freddy, Ramiro Pena, and Justin Maxwell.
- On Wednesday, Bryan V of The Greedy Pinstripes explained why he feels Russell Martin is the most important player in the Yankee lineup, at least from a health standpoint. I can buy that.
- Greg Corcoran of Bronx Baseball Daily scoured the Yankees' MiL affiliates to identify the players who he thinks could be fast risers through the system this season.
- Matt Filippi of Beyond the Box Score offered his 2012 season preview for the Yankees, touching on their improved rotation and age concerns in the lineup.
- On Thursday, Jamie Insalaco of Bomber Banter made his 2012 predictions. He sees rebounds for Hughes and The Horse and another AL East title for the Yankees.
- Hippeaux of IIATMS discussed the trend in baseball of shuffling guys from the bullpen to the rotation, touching on the Yankees' recent following of the trend with Hughes and Joba.
- Fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite looked at the evolution of the Yankees' strategy when building their rotation and the shift to focusing more on homegrown pitching talent.
- Dave Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweet Spot set the over/under for Yankee wins at 93.5 and inquired about their ability to reach 100. I'm not sure about 100, but I would definitely take the over on 93.5.
- Today, Mike Eder of TYA crunched the numbers on Teix's ST at-bats to show just how much he's focused on hitting the other way from the left side. Hopefully that carries over to the regular season and translates into an overall improvement in his stats.
- Mike did the same thing on Wednesday with Phil Hughes' batted ball profile to show the improvements in Hughes' game this spring.
For the Friday Jam, I'm going back to my middle school days with some Orgy. They've recently reformed, although lead singer Jay Gordon is the only original member still involved, but they're still pretty badass. I remember being 13 years old when their "Blue Monday" cover started to become popular and thinking I was the coolest cat on the block because I bought a CD called "Candyass" by a band named "Orgy." Hell, I'm 26 now and I still think it's cool that the band is called "Orgy." I don't think it came with a parental advisory sticker, but I definitely hid it from my folks for a while. I was such a loser back then. Anyway, if you're somehow still an Orgy fan like I am, you'll appreciate this one from 1999.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody.
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Bench*)
(Frankie breaks out his best chicken dance. Courtesy of The AP)
* I'm including Russell Martin in this group simply because I'm an idiot and didn't remember to include him in the infield post on Monday. I'm also lumping Ibanez into the bench group as a platoon player, even though he will be the starting DH.
What We Know- Russell Martin is Playing for a Contract
Russell resurrected his career last season in his first year in pinstripes. He played in 125 games, hit 18 HR, posted a .325 wOBA, made the All Star Game, and played all-around solid defense behind the plate. That being said, he did only hit .237 and didn't contribute much in the Yankees' ALDS loss to Detroit, so the Yankees weren't quite convinced that he was back and only gave him a 1-year deal this year. At 29, Martin is right smack in the middle of his prime years and will be one of the top catchers available on the free agent market after this season. He got in great shape again in the offseason to prepare himself for a big year, and if he has one chances are he'll be brought back by the Yankees on a 3-4-year deal. If they decide they don't want to bring him back, or can't afford to, some other team will definitely be in the market for his services.
What We Don't Know- Whether That Will Impact Cervelli's Playing Time
Martin knows he needs to be on the field to showcase his skills and earn himself that new contract, so he's going to be pushing to play as much as possible. Playing the catcher position, it's a sure thing that he's going to get banged up at some point, and chances are he will try to play through the pain. What Joe will need to decide is how often he wants to let Martin do that as the season progresses and the bumps and bruises start to pile up. Francisco Cervelli is once again lined up to be Martin's backup behind the plate and we know what he is at this point. He can hit a little bit here and there and he won't embarrass himself defensively, but when Martin is healthy and at his best there isn't anything that Cervelli can do better than him. 130-135 games for Martin would be good, with Cervelli catching the rest.
More after the jump
Will There Be Any Friday Funny Business Today?
2 weeks ago Friday it was Andy's comeback. Last Friday it was Joba's failed attempt to be an Olympic gymnast. So what's in store for us today?
I'm almost scared to check LoHud for news updates. I'm afraid it's going to be something like Larry Rothschild getting kidnapped by Colombian drug lords or Curtis Granderson suddenly going blind. Hopefully it can just be a nice calm day and we can continue to talk about finalizing the rotation order and why Michael Pineda isn't throwing 200 MPH.
I'm almost scared to check LoHud for news updates. I'm afraid it's going to be something like Larry Rothschild getting kidnapped by Colombian drug lords or Curtis Granderson suddenly going blind. Hopefully it can just be a nice calm day and we can continue to talk about finalizing the rotation order and why Michael Pineda isn't throwing 200 MPH.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Bullpen)
(Best in the world. Courtesy of The AP)
Infield's done, outfield's done, rotation's done. Now onto the relief corp.
What We Know- The Bullpen Pecking Order
The merits of having defined roles in the bullpen can be argued, but that's the way Joe operates and those roles for 2012, at least heading into the start of the season, are pretty well set. Mariano Rivera is the closer and official 9th Inning Guy, and only injury or the end of the world will change that. Behind him, Dave Robertson will be the setup man and official 8th Inning Guy after his dominant 2011 season and Rafael Soriano will slot into the 7th inning role. Boone Logan will retain his spot as top lefty ace, although Joe has talked about expanding his role if the Yankees decide to carry a 2nd lefty. Cory Wade is in place as the Middle Inning Relief Guy and the loser of the 5th starter competition, most likely Freddy Garcia, will be the long man.
What We Don't Know- How Quickly It Will Become Subject to Change
Mo is set in stone, but behind him there is always opportunity for change and that change could come pretty early. D-Rob certainly earned the right to hold the setup role this season after the way he pitched last year, but he's had very little time on the mound this spring thanks to his foot injury and could get off to shaky start if he's still working the kinks out. His history of wildness and Soriano's big contract could lead to a swap of spots if Robertson is ineffective. Cory Wade, who has struggled this spring and likely would have been the first out of a job when Joba or David Aardsma returned in the summer, should also be on notice. Even Freddy could get forced out of his spot when Andy returns and kicks someone from the rotation into the bullpen.
More after the jump
The NY Spring Training Double Standard
Lost in all the talk about Ivan Nova's command, Andy Pettitte's return, and Michael Pineda's velocity is the rather pedestrian spring being had by another Yankee starting pitcher. This pitcher has made only 4 official starts this spring and in those 4 starts has thrown 14.0 total innings. In those 14 innings, he has allowed 7 earned runs on 19 combined hits and walks while striking only 10. As a back-of-the-rotation candidate, these numbers could be acceptable. For a guy being paid top dollar who is expected to anchor the starting rotation of the New York Yankees they are hardly encouraging and yet there hasn't been a peep from anybody in the media about him or his performance this spring.
As you probably guessed, the pitcher in question here is CC Sabathia. CC has reached almost Mo-like levels of media non-coverage this spring, as the only time his name has been mentioned is on the days he's scheduled to pitch. His ST stat line suggests that he's had problems commanding his stuff and locating his pitches during his outings, and Sabathia himself has admitted that he had issues with his changeup earlier in camp and his 2-seamer still isn't where he wants it to be. On the surface, these should probably be just as important as MSM talking points as Pineda's velocity is. A team's ace, who also happens to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball, giving up more hits and runs than you'd like to see and heading into his final start of the spring before Opening Day without full command of his pitches should be a big story, especially with the New York sports media involved. They normally can't jump all over a story like this fast enough.
What prevents that from happening in this situation is track record. CC has spent 3 seasons in New York and has been a beast in all 3 of them. He's made 101 starts in a Yankee uniform, won 59 of them, pitched over 230 innings in each of his 3 seasons, and finished top 4 in the Cy Young voting in each of his 3 seasons. Oh, he's also got a World Series ring on his finger too. All things being equal, CC probably deserves to have his ST performance dissected just as much as Pineda's if not more given his role on the team. After all, Pineda has given up fewer runs and struck out more batters per 9 innings in his ST outings than CC has. But when you've got the kind of resume in New York that CC has, that pretty much takes equality out of the equation.
In a perfect world, Michael Pineda would probably be getting a little more credit for how well he's pitched this spring without his top-shelf velocity and CC would probably have a few more stories written about him and his command issues. That would be fair. But things are hardly ever fair in the world of the New York sports media and this is just the latest example. They've seen CC get the job done on a consistent basis over the past 3 seasons, they expect him to do the same this season regardless of how well or how poorly he pitches in Spring Training, and so he gets the free pass from them. Pineda doesn't have the track record in New York to fall back on, so he gets put through the meat grinder.
Perhaps we in the blogosphere, even those of us going to bat for Pineda, are just as guilty of feeding this double standard by writing about Pineda and not about Sabathia. I know I'm not concerned at all about CC based on his ST performance and fully expect him to deliver this season just like he has the past 3. For better or worse, this is how it is in New York and Michael Pineda is finding that out firsthand. At least he can take solace in the fact that if he follows CC's path in his first couple years here, he'll never have to hear any griping about his fastball velocity in March ever again.
As you probably guessed, the pitcher in question here is CC Sabathia. CC has reached almost Mo-like levels of media non-coverage this spring, as the only time his name has been mentioned is on the days he's scheduled to pitch. His ST stat line suggests that he's had problems commanding his stuff and locating his pitches during his outings, and Sabathia himself has admitted that he had issues with his changeup earlier in camp and his 2-seamer still isn't where he wants it to be. On the surface, these should probably be just as important as MSM talking points as Pineda's velocity is. A team's ace, who also happens to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball, giving up more hits and runs than you'd like to see and heading into his final start of the spring before Opening Day without full command of his pitches should be a big story, especially with the New York sports media involved. They normally can't jump all over a story like this fast enough.
What prevents that from happening in this situation is track record. CC has spent 3 seasons in New York and has been a beast in all 3 of them. He's made 101 starts in a Yankee uniform, won 59 of them, pitched over 230 innings in each of his 3 seasons, and finished top 4 in the Cy Young voting in each of his 3 seasons. Oh, he's also got a World Series ring on his finger too. All things being equal, CC probably deserves to have his ST performance dissected just as much as Pineda's if not more given his role on the team. After all, Pineda has given up fewer runs and struck out more batters per 9 innings in his ST outings than CC has. But when you've got the kind of resume in New York that CC has, that pretty much takes equality out of the equation.
In a perfect world, Michael Pineda would probably be getting a little more credit for how well he's pitched this spring without his top-shelf velocity and CC would probably have a few more stories written about him and his command issues. That would be fair. But things are hardly ever fair in the world of the New York sports media and this is just the latest example. They've seen CC get the job done on a consistent basis over the past 3 seasons, they expect him to do the same this season regardless of how well or how poorly he pitches in Spring Training, and so he gets the free pass from them. Pineda doesn't have the track record in New York to fall back on, so he gets put through the meat grinder.
Perhaps we in the blogosphere, even those of us going to bat for Pineda, are just as guilty of feeding this double standard by writing about Pineda and not about Sabathia. I know I'm not concerned at all about CC based on his ST performance and fully expect him to deliver this season just like he has the past 3. For better or worse, this is how it is in New York and Michael Pineda is finding that out firsthand. At least he can take solace in the fact that if he follows CC's path in his first couple years here, he'll never have to hear any griping about his fastball velocity in March ever again.
Austin Romine's Back Is Killing Me (And Probably Him Too)
Austin, bro, you're killing me. I had faith in you. I stood by you after a rough 2011 season and kept the faith. I ranked you #4 in my Top 30 Prospects when nobody else even had you in their top 5 because I honestly believe you can be a good Major League catcher. I put myself out there for you and this is how you repay me? By hurting your back again? It's bad enough that you haven't done jack shit in ST because of your back injury, and then when you're on the cusp of returning you tweak it again and now you're going to miss the start of the Triple-A season. You're a young man for crying out loud! You shouldn't have back problems. Clean that shit up, dude. A catcher with back issues is not a good look.
Somebody get this guy a Shiatsu massage chair, one of those big metal back braces like the one Sweet Dee wears in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia," and some Icy Hot back patches, stat!
P.S.- Russell Martin's agent must be loving this.
Somebody get this guy a Shiatsu massage chair, one of those big metal back braces like the one Sweet Dee wears in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia," and some Icy Hot back patches, stat!
P.S.- Russell Martin's agent must be loving this.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Rapada Vs. Cabral For The Final Bullpen Spot- Who Ya Got?
As the roster continues to be trimmed down, it's becoming more and more clear that the competition for the final roster spot is down to Clay Rapada and Cesar Cabral for the 7th and final spot in the bullpen. Joe has acknowledged that this is the case and said he envisions using whichever guy is chosen as the true LOOGY and making Boone Logan a general middle reliever. So that being the situation, who makes more sense for the Yankees to take?
Both Rapada and Cabral have pitched very well this spring, and their stat lines stack up very well:
- Rapada: 8.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K in 9 appearances
- Cabral: 10.1 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K in 9 appearances
Rapada has been more consistent over the course of the spring while Cabral has come on of late, allowing 0 runs, 3 hits, and striking out 9 over 5 IP in his last 4 appearances, including an impressive 2-inning, 6 K performance against Tampa a week ago. Where the comparisons really start to drift apart is in the L/R splits. Rapada has been murder on lefties this spring, allowing just 1 baserunner (on a BB) and striking out 8 in 4.2 IP against left-handed hitters, but has given up more hits and more walks against righties, living up to his extreme career L/R split. Cabral has actually been better against right-handed hitting, blanking righties over 5.2 IP while giving up the majority of his hits and all his runs allowed against lefties. The small sample size curse could be at work here, though, as 8 of Cabral's 12 strikeouts have come against left-handed hitters.
Ultimately the decision will come down to how much upside the Yankees think Cabral has. At 23, he is considerably younger than Rapada and conceivably could be developed into a more effective and possibly complete relief pitcher. Rapada would be viable as a LOOGY and LOOGY alone. With the success each has had this spring, they are very likely to get a job elsewhere if they aren't chosen, Rapada because of his MiL deal and Cabral because of his Rule 5 draft pick status, so the Yankees are going to lose whichever guy they don't pick. I was high on Rapada earlier in camp, but I'm leaning towards Cabral now because of his youth and better performance against righties. Having that kind of flexibility in the 'pen with Cabral and Logan makes the entire bullpen that much deeper.
Both Rapada and Cabral have pitched very well this spring, and their stat lines stack up very well:
- Rapada: 8.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K in 9 appearances
- Cabral: 10.1 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K in 9 appearances
Rapada has been more consistent over the course of the spring while Cabral has come on of late, allowing 0 runs, 3 hits, and striking out 9 over 5 IP in his last 4 appearances, including an impressive 2-inning, 6 K performance against Tampa a week ago. Where the comparisons really start to drift apart is in the L/R splits. Rapada has been murder on lefties this spring, allowing just 1 baserunner (on a BB) and striking out 8 in 4.2 IP against left-handed hitters, but has given up more hits and more walks against righties, living up to his extreme career L/R split. Cabral has actually been better against right-handed hitting, blanking righties over 5.2 IP while giving up the majority of his hits and all his runs allowed against lefties. The small sample size curse could be at work here, though, as 8 of Cabral's 12 strikeouts have come against left-handed hitters.
Ultimately the decision will come down to how much upside the Yankees think Cabral has. At 23, he is considerably younger than Rapada and conceivably could be developed into a more effective and possibly complete relief pitcher. Rapada would be viable as a LOOGY and LOOGY alone. With the success each has had this spring, they are very likely to get a job elsewhere if they aren't chosen, Rapada because of his MiL deal and Cabral because of his Rule 5 draft pick status, so the Yankees are going to lose whichever guy they don't pick. I was high on Rapada earlier in camp, but I'm leaning towards Cabral now because of his youth and better performance against righties. Having that kind of flexibility in the 'pen with Cabral and Logan makes the entire bullpen that much deeper.
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Rotation)
(Can this guy stay in the rotation all season? Courtesy of The AP)
The hitters have been covered, and there aren't a whole lot of new knowns or unknowns about that group as they've all been here before. We move to the pitchers today, starting with the rotation, where there are a couple of new faces and a new old face that's returned for another go.
What We Know- There's No Shortage Of Available Bodies This Year
There's depth aplenty in the Yankee rotation in 2012. No bargain-bin Bartolo Colon signings or hope for unproven young starters this year. The Yankees have 7 viable, capable Major League starting pitchers on hand right now, and any combination of 5 out of that 7 has the potential to make up the best top-to-bottom rotation in baseball if they all pitch to their ceiling. There is also a good mix of old/older veteran pitchers who know the deal and young pitchers still putting the pieces together to reach their potential and figure out exactly where their ceilings top out. And if this group is hit by a plague of injuries, the Yankees have 3 quality arms in Triple-A they can use to plug holes in David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, and Adam Warren.
What We Don't Know- How Much They'll All Be Used
It's already been said plenty of times this spring that too much starting pitching is a good problem to have, and it is. But it is a problem none the less, and at some point the Yankees are going to have to deal with it. The young guys are the most likely to take a back seat or get shuffled around, as both Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda have Triple-A options remaining and Phil Hughes has experience working out of the bullpen. Injuries could also factor into the shuffling of the rotation deck when that time comes. CC Sabathia is a workhorse, no doubt about it, but that workload and his size always make him a candidate for a DL trip. The Yankees have been lucky enough to not have to deal with that so far, but you never know. In the interest of managing workloads, the dreaded 6-man rotation is always an option as well.
More after the jump
As The Ankle Turns...
(Hipster Joba loves his son. Courtesy of The AP)
See what I did there? With the ankle line? Because he dislocated it?? Pretty f'ing clever, huh?
Seriously, though, what's the deal with this Joba ankle situation now? He's saying he didn't even dislocate it, it wasn't that bad, and he's going to pitch this year. Cash is saying he talked to the doctors and confirmed that it was an open dislocation and it's still unknown if Joba can pitch this year. Again, I don't have a medical degree, but it seems like something as horrific as an open dislocation of your ankle is a pretty black-and-white situation that even people outside the medical field could look at and diagnosis. Why Joba is trying to downplay everything is very confusing to me. The only thing I can think is that he's trying to make Cash and his doctor out to be the heels to set up a match at Wrestlemania against his doctor for the right to be medically cleared to pitch in 2012.
Actually, that would be pretty awesome.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Outfield)
We covered the knowns and unknowns around the horn in the infield yesterday. Today we venture beyond the infield dirt to see what questions and answers are looming in the outfield grass.
What We Know- This Group Can Play Some Defense
Part of what makes the trio of Gardner, C-Grand, and Swish so valuable. and arguably the best OF group in baseball, is the fact that they are all 2-way players. Nobody is out there hidden in a corner outfield spot because they're an embarrassment with the glove but the Yanks need their bat in the lineup. Brett Gardner can flat out cover ground out in left field, and makes plays that other left fielders would have no chance to make look easy, something that is not the easiest thing in the world to do in left field at Yankee Stadium. Nick Swisher, while not being as fleet-footed as Gardner, gets good jumps on balls, takes smart angles, and can flash the cannon to hold a runner or throw a guy out. And Curtis, defensive metrics be damned, can make some spectacular plays thanks to his speed. All three of these guys contribute in their own ways at the plate, and then go out in the field and supplement their offensive value by playing good defense and preventing runs.
What We Don't Know- Just How Good Curtis Granderson Is Defensively
Advanced defensive statistics are still nowhere near as accurate as offensive ones, and if you try to use them to judge Curtis Granderson you'll see a perfect example of that. In his first 2 full seasons in Detroit he posted UZR/150 values of 13.6 and 14.5, both of which are pretty damn good. He followed that up with 2 consecutive years of negative UZR/150 values, then was back to positive with a 7.9 in his first year with the Yankees. Last year, though, C-Grand put up his second worst number to date, -5.3, which begs the question of just how good is he out there in center? He doesn't always get the greatest jump on the ball, sometimes his routes are a little circuitous, and his arm isn't top notch, but when I think back to plays like the one he made in Game 4 of last year's ALDS I'm reminded of how good he can be.
More after the jump
What We Know- This Group Can Play Some Defense
Part of what makes the trio of Gardner, C-Grand, and Swish so valuable. and arguably the best OF group in baseball, is the fact that they are all 2-way players. Nobody is out there hidden in a corner outfield spot because they're an embarrassment with the glove but the Yanks need their bat in the lineup. Brett Gardner can flat out cover ground out in left field, and makes plays that other left fielders would have no chance to make look easy, something that is not the easiest thing in the world to do in left field at Yankee Stadium. Nick Swisher, while not being as fleet-footed as Gardner, gets good jumps on balls, takes smart angles, and can flash the cannon to hold a runner or throw a guy out. And Curtis, defensive metrics be damned, can make some spectacular plays thanks to his speed. All three of these guys contribute in their own ways at the plate, and then go out in the field and supplement their offensive value by playing good defense and preventing runs.
What We Don't Know- Just How Good Curtis Granderson Is Defensively
Advanced defensive statistics are still nowhere near as accurate as offensive ones, and if you try to use them to judge Curtis Granderson you'll see a perfect example of that. In his first 2 full seasons in Detroit he posted UZR/150 values of 13.6 and 14.5, both of which are pretty damn good. He followed that up with 2 consecutive years of negative UZR/150 values, then was back to positive with a 7.9 in his first year with the Yankees. Last year, though, C-Grand put up his second worst number to date, -5.3, which begs the question of just how good is he out there in center? He doesn't always get the greatest jump on the ball, sometimes his routes are a little circuitous, and his arm isn't top notch, but when I think back to plays like the one he made in Game 4 of last year's ALDS I'm reminded of how good he can be.
(Courtesy of The AP)
More after the jump
Phil Hughes And The Perils Of Pitching Well During A Surplus
While the majority of the ST pitching storylines have been dedicated either to Michael Pineda's velocity ("ZOMG!!! He's only throwing 93!!!111!1!1) or Andy Pettitte's return (ZOMG!!!! Andy's back!!!!11!1!!1), the starting pitcher with the most to prove this season has been putting together the best spring out of all the rotation candidates. Most people were justifiably indifferent to the stories of Phil Hughes rededicating himself to conditioning this offseason after his disastrous 2011 and wanted to see how that would translate into his performance on the mound before declaring him "back" or even on his way to being back this spring. Hughes' performance thus far in camp, albeit in small sample sizes and against various levels of watered down competition, has been very encouraging and should earn him a spot in the rotation to open the season. But could it also end up working against him?
The devastating fastball-curveball combo that Hughes used to build his reputation as a top prospect has always been hit or miss during his time as a Yankee. Last season they were nowhere to be found thanks to his poor preparation for the season and resulting shoulder fatigue. This spring, Hughes has brought his two main offerings back from the dead and has been showcasing them in the way we always expected to see them. His fastball velocity has been consistently in the 90-93 MPH range since his first outing on March 6th, with some 94s here and there, and his curveball has been swing-and-miss good, something I don't remember seeing since the early parts of 2010. Hughes has also made significant strides in the development of his changeup, something that we've been waiting to see for a few years now, and he looks much more comfortable using it regularly with the rest of his offerings. He's attacking hitters, throwing strikes, mixing his pitches well, and doing a much better job of putting guys away with 2 strikes.
It would seem like all of this should add up to Hughes not only locking himself into the 5th starter spot to open the season, but also guarantee him that spot moving forward if he can continue to pitch this well. Despite his seemingly long tenure with the organization, Hughes is still younger than me at 25 and still seemingly with his peak years ahead of him. He's on the books for just $3.2 million this year, will be arbitration-eligible again next year before becoming eligible for free agency in 2014, and even with a solid season in 2012 he still stands to be a very cost-effective option for the Yankees as part of future rotations. He's a valuable pitcher to have as is and even more valuable if he can pitch well.
Given the bevy of starting pitching depth possessed by the Yankees, however, Hughes' success this spring could actually serve to accelerate his departure from the Yankee organization via trade. Freddy Garcia is the first name that comes to mind when talking about potential trades to ease the rotation logjam, especially after a report of the Yankees offering him to Miami surfaced this weekend, but don't discount Hughes as an option. The same things that make him attractive as a rotation piece for the Yankees also makes him a far more attractive trade chip than Garcia, and the better he pitches the more attractive he becomes to other teams that need pitching. The Yankees can get far more in return for Hughes than they can for Garcia, possibly a young position player that can help the goal of trimming payroll for 2014 (like Philly's Domonic Brown), and not be at risk of negatively impacting their rotation because of the remaining depth.
Keeping the payroll goals in mind, even if Hughes isn't traded this year, he could still force himself onto the trade block by pitching well through this season and next season and pricing himself out of the Yankees' range after 2013. A big 27-year-old right hander with plenty of experience coming off of 2 consecutive good seasons will command much more than the $3.2 mil Hughes is making now. With the cheap internal options in Triple-A expected to be ready and contributing by then, the Yankees could decide that Hughes is too rich for their blood. Not wanting to end up like the Mets with Jose Reyes this past offseason, they could decide to strike while the iron is hot and get something valuable in return for Hughes while they still have the chance. By the same token, given Hughes' uneven track record in the Majors, his trade value could be crushed by another poor season or another demotion to the bullpen. The Yankees have to know that the line between high trade value and very little trade value is razor thin with Hughes. Better to move him when he's on the good side of the line rather than the bad.
Admittedly it's a bit early to be talking about any trade scenario involving Yankee pitchers. Too much depth is a better problem to have than too little, and the smart move would be to carry all 7 guys until Andy is ready to come back and rejoin the rotation. But the possibility of Hughes being moved is one worth monitoring as the season progresses, especially considering that Buster Olney reported during the Yanks-Sawx game last Thursday that the Yankees were "listening to offers" from other teams for Hughes. His value to the Yankees is maximized by either being in the rotation or as trade bait, so moving him to the bullpen to accommodate Andy would be a waste. Hughes' strong spring is doing a lot to get him back in the good graces of the organization and the fans right now, and should get him a spot in the rotation to open the season. If he continues to pitch well, though, he could end up pitching himself right out of town.
The devastating fastball-curveball combo that Hughes used to build his reputation as a top prospect has always been hit or miss during his time as a Yankee. Last season they were nowhere to be found thanks to his poor preparation for the season and resulting shoulder fatigue. This spring, Hughes has brought his two main offerings back from the dead and has been showcasing them in the way we always expected to see them. His fastball velocity has been consistently in the 90-93 MPH range since his first outing on March 6th, with some 94s here and there, and his curveball has been swing-and-miss good, something I don't remember seeing since the early parts of 2010. Hughes has also made significant strides in the development of his changeup, something that we've been waiting to see for a few years now, and he looks much more comfortable using it regularly with the rest of his offerings. He's attacking hitters, throwing strikes, mixing his pitches well, and doing a much better job of putting guys away with 2 strikes.
It would seem like all of this should add up to Hughes not only locking himself into the 5th starter spot to open the season, but also guarantee him that spot moving forward if he can continue to pitch this well. Despite his seemingly long tenure with the organization, Hughes is still younger than me at 25 and still seemingly with his peak years ahead of him. He's on the books for just $3.2 million this year, will be arbitration-eligible again next year before becoming eligible for free agency in 2014, and even with a solid season in 2012 he still stands to be a very cost-effective option for the Yankees as part of future rotations. He's a valuable pitcher to have as is and even more valuable if he can pitch well.
Given the bevy of starting pitching depth possessed by the Yankees, however, Hughes' success this spring could actually serve to accelerate his departure from the Yankee organization via trade. Freddy Garcia is the first name that comes to mind when talking about potential trades to ease the rotation logjam, especially after a report of the Yankees offering him to Miami surfaced this weekend, but don't discount Hughes as an option. The same things that make him attractive as a rotation piece for the Yankees also makes him a far more attractive trade chip than Garcia, and the better he pitches the more attractive he becomes to other teams that need pitching. The Yankees can get far more in return for Hughes than they can for Garcia, possibly a young position player that can help the goal of trimming payroll for 2014 (like Philly's Domonic Brown), and not be at risk of negatively impacting their rotation because of the remaining depth.
Keeping the payroll goals in mind, even if Hughes isn't traded this year, he could still force himself onto the trade block by pitching well through this season and next season and pricing himself out of the Yankees' range after 2013. A big 27-year-old right hander with plenty of experience coming off of 2 consecutive good seasons will command much more than the $3.2 mil Hughes is making now. With the cheap internal options in Triple-A expected to be ready and contributing by then, the Yankees could decide that Hughes is too rich for their blood. Not wanting to end up like the Mets with Jose Reyes this past offseason, they could decide to strike while the iron is hot and get something valuable in return for Hughes while they still have the chance. By the same token, given Hughes' uneven track record in the Majors, his trade value could be crushed by another poor season or another demotion to the bullpen. The Yankees have to know that the line between high trade value and very little trade value is razor thin with Hughes. Better to move him when he's on the good side of the line rather than the bad.
Admittedly it's a bit early to be talking about any trade scenario involving Yankee pitchers. Too much depth is a better problem to have than too little, and the smart move would be to carry all 7 guys until Andy is ready to come back and rejoin the rotation. But the possibility of Hughes being moved is one worth monitoring as the season progresses, especially considering that Buster Olney reported during the Yanks-Sawx game last Thursday that the Yankees were "listening to offers" from other teams for Hughes. His value to the Yankees is maximized by either being in the rotation or as trade bait, so moving him to the bullpen to accommodate Andy would be a waste. Hughes' strong spring is doing a lot to get him back in the good graces of the organization and the fans right now, and should get him a spot in the rotation to open the season. If he continues to pitch well, though, he could end up pitching himself right out of town.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
