What We Know- This Group Can Play Some Defense
Part of what makes the trio of Gardner, C-Grand, and Swish so valuable. and arguably the best OF group in baseball, is the fact that they are all 2-way players. Nobody is out there hidden in a corner outfield spot because they're an embarrassment with the glove but the Yanks need their bat in the lineup. Brett Gardner can flat out cover ground out in left field, and makes plays that other left fielders would have no chance to make look easy, something that is not the easiest thing in the world to do in left field at Yankee Stadium. Nick Swisher, while not being as fleet-footed as Gardner, gets good jumps on balls, takes smart angles, and can flash the cannon to hold a runner or throw a guy out. And Curtis, defensive metrics be damned, can make some spectacular plays thanks to his speed. All three of these guys contribute in their own ways at the plate, and then go out in the field and supplement their offensive value by playing good defense and preventing runs.
What We Don't Know- Just How Good Curtis Granderson Is Defensively
Advanced defensive statistics are still nowhere near as accurate as offensive ones, and if you try to use them to judge Curtis Granderson you'll see a perfect example of that. In his first 2 full seasons in Detroit he posted UZR/150 values of 13.6 and 14.5, both of which are pretty damn good. He followed that up with 2 consecutive years of negative UZR/150 values, then was back to positive with a 7.9 in his first year with the Yankees. Last year, though, C-Grand put up his second worst number to date, -5.3, which begs the question of just how good is he out there in center? He doesn't always get the greatest jump on the ball, sometimes his routes are a little circuitous, and his arm isn't top notch, but when I think back to plays like the one he made in Game 4 of last year's ALDS I'm reminded of how good he can be.
(Courtesy of The AP)
More after the jump
What We Know- Brett Gardner Can Hit Enough To Play Every Day
Manny Ramirez he is not at the plate as an everyday left fielder, but Brett Gardner has proven that he's worthy of being in the lineup every day because of what he does offer. On a team of count workers, Gardner is one of the best, and his strong BB rates give him more chances to get on base. His .353 career OBP is a testament to his plate discipline and his ability to put the bat on the ball, a skill that becomes more valuable when you have speed like Gardner's. He uses that speed to create more offensive value by putting himself into scoring position more often, thus lessening the negative effect of his lack of power (career .368 SLG). Gardner put up a .358 wOBA in 2010 and .330 last year in a down year for him. .340-.350 is never out of the question for him with his skill set, and in a lineup full of mashers that's more than enough to get the job done.
What We Don't Know- If He Has Anything More to Offer At The Plate
In nearly 3 full seasons with the Yankees, Gardner has posted slash lines of .270/.345/.379 in 2009, .277/.383/.379 in 2010, and .259/.345/.369 last season. He's remarkably consistent for someone with a reputation of being the opposite, and maximizes his potential output from these numbers with his other skills as mentioned above. But I've always wondered if Gardner was capable of doing more. He seems to have a fairly balanced swing, he has good body rotation to get himself out of the batter's box quickly on contact, and we already know he has good vision and discipline at the plate because of his walk numbers. It still seems like he should be able to work with Kevin Long to tighten his mechanics up, create a little more fluidity in his hip rotation, and hit the ball with a bit more pop. A few more balls into the gaps would be nightmares on opposing outfielders given Gardner's speed, but at this point it's looking like that's still nothing more than a pipe dream.
What We Know- Everybody Has Something to Prove This Season
Like their infield counterparts, this group comes into the season knowing their spots in the lineup are secure. But that doesn't mean they should or will be just going through the motions this season, and all 3 have their own individual sources of motivation. Gardner is looking to silence the talk of his inconsistency by putting up better numbers than 2011 and smoothing out some of the peaks and valleys in his month-to-month performance. He's also got a rejuvenated Andruw Jones behind him pushing for more playing time, so Gardner needs to continue to be effective against left-handed pitching to avoid becoming a platoon bat. Curtis will be looking to show that his monster 2011 season wasn't just a fluke and possibly make another run at the MVP with an improved batting average, fewer Ks, and a defensive rating without the negative sign in front of it. And Swish, well he's playing for a new contract. Whether it's with the Yankees or somebody else, Swish will be looking to make like Jayson Werth and earn a big payday as an outfielder in his 30s.
What We Don't Know- If They'll All Be Back After This Season
We know Gardner and C-Grand probably will be, but Swish is the big question mark. It seems like it's a foregone conclusion that he's a goner after 2012, but it's worth the Yankees time to really evaluate the situation and consider every option, if they weren't already planning to do so. Swish is 31 and won't turn 32 until after this season is over in November. Curtis just turned 31 11 days ago and will be 33 by the time his contract ends after 2013. Swish has averaged a .267/.368/.486 tripleslash in his 3 years as a Yankee with 27 HR, 86 RBI, and the aforementioned solid defense in right field. He's incredibly durable (this spring's groin issues aside) and as a patient hitter who draws a lot of walks he profiles as a much safer bet in his decline years than a free swinger like Curtis. One of the two is going to be gone if the Yankees are serious about getting to $189 million. It'll be interesting to see how difficult each guy makes the decision with their performance this season.
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