Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 3/21/14

To hell with mentally checking out, I didn't even bother checking in today.  Still trying to get all my hearing back after the Lo-Pan show in Milwaukee last night and took the whole day off today for a March Madness/day drinking marathon.  If you're stuck at work, you have my condolences.  #ThoughtsandPrayers.  Not really though.  Now onto the links!

- On Monday, Jesse Schindler of Pinstripe Alley broke down the backup depth at second base, a position that's probably going to need a lot of backup help this season.

- On Tuesday, Mike Axisa of RAB previewed the defensive areas of weakness for 2014.  There's the ones you knew about and 1 or 2 you might not have thought about.

- Michael Eder of IIATMS/TYA made another case for why Stephen Drew could end up a Yankee before the start of the season.

- On Wednesday, el duque of It Is High..., in a rare display of optimism, spoke highly of the Yankees' current abundance of quality starting pitching depth.  Hard to disagree with the guy.

- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog proposed a very interesting idea for the bullpen strategy should the Yankees elect to take all 4 of the 5th starter competitors with them on the Opening Day roster.

- Vizzini of NoMaas offered up his win total prediction for 2014 and rationale for the number.

- Billy Brost of Yanks Go Yard mused on the decision Joe faces with Jeter's spot in the batting order.

- On Thursday, Daniel Burch of The Greedy Pinstripes looked at what statistical milestones could have been in reach for A-Rod were he allowed to play this season.

- Chad Jennings of LoHud got Mick Kelleher's thoughts on each of his projected starting infielders.

This week's jam is a little taste of live Lo-Pan from a show they did last July.  Absolutely killer set last night and really cool dudes to talk to afterwards.  If you like good hard rock and roll and beards, definitely check these guys out.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Bench)

(Courtesy of the AP)

I know I've said this multiple times already, but I still can't get over how little the Yankees did to address their bench this offseason.  I know they had visions of Kelly Johnson being their super sub and Robbie Cano going to Seattle threw a wrench into that, but it still doesn't sit right with me that they'd spend all the money they did to upgrade the rest of the roster and then not go the extra step of bringing in some higher quality bench depth to back up their older/injury riskier players.  That's not to say there isn't a chance that the bench will surprise us this season and provide solid production, but it's not something I'm banking on.  Before they even get to that point, the Yankees have a lot of questions to answer regarding the makeup and playing time distribution of their 4 bench spots.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/20/14

It was only 2 days ago the Yanks played mostly their A-team against the Boston B-squad.  The roles were reversed last night at The George but the results stayed the same as the Bombers won 3-2.

- David Phelps put up a solid showing as he tries to keep up with Michael Pineda in the 5th starter race.  He went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3.  Francisco Cervelli smacked his 4th HR of the spring.

- Little injury scare earlier in the morning when Jacoby Ellsbury was scratched from BP.  Turned out the team wanted him to take a precautionary MRI and it came back negative, so he's still on to return in a few days.

- Bigger injury scare before the game when Brendan Ryan was scratched with "upper back spasms".  Team said it's not related to his lower back problems.  Yeah sure.

- Joe indicated that a decision could be made on the 5th starter this weekend.  Have to think it's going to be Pineda.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Bullpen)

(Courtesy of US Presswire)

With a few exceptions here and there, the bullpen has been the stronger part of the Yankee pitching staff for the last few seasons.  That'll happen when the greatest closer in the history of baseball is holding down the fort for the 9th inning.  But it's more than that.  The Yankees, for all their faults in building up the rest of their roster, have been very good at putting together their bullpens through multiple sources.  They've generated some good homegrown relievers, they've signed or traded for guys who have provided above-average pitching production in late-game innings, and they've been masters of finding undervalued assets and getting decent production from them before cutting bait and moving on.  A lot has changed from the last few seasons heading into this one, however, and those changes could have a major impact on the look and overall performance of the bullpen in 2014.

Keep Talking To Me, Ivan

(Courtesy of Jonathan Dyer/USA TODAY Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Coming off back-to-back shaky outings in which he was touched up for 17 hits in 9.0 innings pitched, Ivan Nova got back on track yesterday with a brilliant start against the Atlanta Braves.  He worked 6.1 scoreless, effortless innings, giving up only 2 hits, striking out 5, and not walking a batter for the 4th straight outing.  It was a start right out of Nova's 2013 2nd half catalog.  Fastballs located down in the zone, a lot more GB outs than balls in the air, and a big swing-and-miss curveball.  Brian McCann, who said he wanted to play in yesterday's game specifically for the purpose of catching Nova again, was gushing after the game, and any uneasiness people may have been feeling after watching Nova's previous 2 starts was quelled.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/19/14

The Yanks weren't televised yesterday, so nobody got to see the masterful performance by Ivan Nova in their 7-0 thumping of the Braves.  Shame.

- But yeah, Nova.  He went 6.1 innings, gave up no runs, no walks, 2 hits, and struck out 5.  I'll have more on him later.  Carlos Beltran was the offensive star, going 3-4 with 2 RBI.

- Brendan Ryan went through a full workout yesterday with no limitations and should play in today's game.  Jacoby Ellsbury still hasn't started running on his sore calf, so his timetable remains up in the air.

- Joe confirmed that Vidal Nuno and Adam Warren are officially out of the 5th starter competition when he announced that Nuno would back up David Phelps out of the 'pen today and Warren would do the same for CC tomorrow.

- The experiment with Alfonso Soriano at first base is over.  He'll no longer take grounders there and Kelly Johnson is the backup for Teix right now.

- Warren and Hiroki Kuroda threw bullpens to Cervelli.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Rotation)

(Courtesy of the AP)

When Brian Cashman took the plunge and signed CC Sabathia during the 2008-2009 offseason, it was the start of the Yankees' new commitment to building a solid starting rotation.  The main factor that kept them out of the World Series after 2003 was their lack of top notch-quality starting pitching and their lack of rotation depth.  Sabathia has given them more than what they hoped for and then some since signing, but one thing that's always lagged behind is the quality of depth behind him in the rotation.  Former top prospects like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain didn't pan out, nor did CC's fellow big FA signing from that offseason.  The lack of back end depth became such an issue that Andy Pettitte had to be brought back and then brought back out of retirement to fortify the rotation.

He's not around this year, nor are Hughes and Chamberlain, but for the first time in a while it appears as though the Yankees have finally solved that depth problem for the short and long-term futures.  There are still a few things that need to be ironed out, but the lay of the rotation land this year is much brighter than it's been in a while.

So The Yankees Basically Won The Pineda-Montero Trade Yesterday, Right?

(Fist bump city.  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The title of this post was a topic that came up on our daily email thread yesterday, mostly jokingly if I interpreted the email correctly.  The now infamous Michael Pineda-Jesus Montero trade of 2012 has been an easy source of comedy in the baseball world with how poorly the deal has turned out for both sides thus far, but the more I thought about it last night, the more I think the joke is actually true.  Even if he wakes up today, has his right arm fall completely off of his body, and never throws another pitch for the Yankees again, Pineda's start yesterday guaranteed a W for the Yankees on that deal.

Mark Teixeira, Bee Expert

(Courtesy of SB Nation)

By now, I'm sure everybody knows about the little 7-minute bee delay that interrupted yesterday's game.  What you might not know is that, had the umpires had the wherewithal to ask him, Mark Teixeira would have had the whole situation under control:

“What I thought was if you could just do a line of honey out to the parking lot, the bees would maybe follow it and leave us alone.”

Well duh.  Why didn't anybody think of that??  No need to spray a bunch of insecticides into the air, potentially putting the fans and players at risk and senselessly murdering a few hundred bees who were just trying to do their thing.  Just do a line of honey out to the parking lot and maybe the bees would have followed it.  Teix even volunteered the Yankees' honey.

Real multi-threat that Mark Teixeira.  Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, most boring person ever on Twitter, Broadway actor, painfully white, and amateur apiologist.  Now if only he could translate that bee knowledge to the batter's box and add a little sting to his swing.  That'd be something.

P.S.- Do you see what I did there with the "sting" joke?  That's highbrow stuff.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/18/14

I don't care when it happens, beating the Red Sox is always great.  The Yankees took them down 8-1 yesterday, which made the fact that I forgot I was supposed to live blog the game even more painful.

- The star of the day was Michael Pineda, who made his second ST start and looked damn good doing it.  Pineda threw 4.1 shutout innings, gave up 4 hits and no walks, and struck out 5.  He threw 60 pitches, 45 for strikes, and all 5 of his Ks came on swinging sliders.  He was sitting low 90s with his fastball and touched 94.

- Jacoby Ellsbury continued to progress, going through a full day of workouts.  Joe said he won't play today or tomorrow, and that he won't put Ellsbury back in the lineup until a day or 2 after Ellsbury tells him he's good.

- Brendan Ryan also did a full day's work with no problems and the plan is for him to play again on Thursday.

- David Phelps, CC Sabathia, and Masahiro Tanaka all threw bullpens in the morning.

- Big day of roster cuts.  12 MiLers got the axe, including Chase Whitley, Tyler Austin, Mason Williams, Mark Montgomery, and Corban Joseph.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Outfield)

(Pretend the dude in the middle is Gardner.  Courtesy of the AP)

While the starting infield looks a lot different than it did at this time last year, I don't think I'd label the changes as a "makeover".  It's an impossible argument to make that this year's projected starting infield is better than last year's and I won't waste my time or yours trying to make it.  Moving to the outfield, however, that makeover label starts to fit a lot better.  This year's projected starting group, which includes 2 of the Yankees' premiere FA signings, looks much better and more well-balanced on paper than last year's.  There's above-average defense, better batting average and all-around on-base skills, fewer strikeouts, and enough pop in the bats to keep opposing pitchers honest.  After the jump, the knowns and unknowns for this remade starting outfield.

Thoughts On The Rotation Two Weeks From Opening Day

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

A little over 2 weeks from right now, the Yankees will be on the road in Houston to open the 2014 regular season.  They'll be facing the immortal Scott Feldman, and barring anything unforeseen they will send CC Sabathia out for his 6th straight Opening Day start to counter.  That's one of the few definites in the starting rotation right now, and with 11 spring games left to sort out the rest, the big picture is starting to come into focus.  Some random thoughts on where the rotation stands 2 weeks from Opening Day.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/17/14

- No game yesterday thanks to the weather.  Hiroki Kuroda was scheduled to pitch, but instead he threw a 5-inning sim game at the complex to get his work in.  Michael Pineda is still slated to get the start today.

- Jacoby Ellsbury took indoor BP.  He told Joe his calf felt better, but Joe was leaning towards giving him today off too.

- Brendan Ryan was back to full workout duty.  More hitting for Tyler Austin.  Both are on track to return to games some time later this week.

- In a bit of off-field news, the Yanks lost their head of Major League scouting when Will Kuntz gave up the job yesterday to take a PR position with MLS.  Via Andrew Marchand, Steve Martone will replace him.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Infield)

(That's almost 80 years of middle infielder right there.  Courtesy of the AP)

While March 17th holds a special place in most of our hearts as a day of calling out of work and engaging in drunken merriment, the feelings and associations in most MLB camps today are not as jovial.  The start of this week signals the beginning of the end of Spring Training, the final 2 weeks until the start of the regular season and crunch time for those fighting for a roster spot.  The days of soft toss, base covering drills, and outfield jogs are over.  We're well into the meat of the ST game schedule and now everything matters.  Early cuts have already taken and are continuing to take place as teams whittle their rosters down to the real contenders for the Opening Day 25-man, and with the Opening Day rosters starting to take shape the questions start to shift from "who's going to make it?" to "what are they going to do?"

It is with that shift in mind that we move into Week 2 of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview with the start of the "What We Know & What We Don't Know" series.  As always, we start with the infield.

Yanks Assign ManBan To MiL Camp, Make The Right Call

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Months back, I wrote a post advocating for Manny Banuelos' inclusion in the Spring Training rotation competition if he was healthy enough to do so.  My thinking was that if he showed no ill effects from the Tommy John Surgery that cost him his 2013 season, he offered more upside as the 5th starter than anybody else the Yankees had in-house.  I didn't expect the Yankees to deviate from their cautious plan with ManBan, but I would have been fully on board with the idea if they did.

As it turns out, there were plenty of ill effects from Banuelos' TJS on display in his 2 Spring Training outings, although none that were physical or arm-related, and ManBan made it easy for the Yankees to cut him from Major League camp yesterday morning and assign him to High-A Tampa camp.  While his fastball velocity was encouraging in the low 90s, his command wasn't there on any of his pitches and Banuelos got knocked around for 7 ER on 4 H and 3 BB in 1.0 total IP over his 2 appearances.  Like most other pitchers who come back from TJS, ManBan has a long way to go to regain the feel for his stuff and the best place to start doing that is in the Minors.

Yankee Farm System Ranked 20th In Terms Of "Impact" By FanGraphs

I almost let this slip through the cracks, but Tony Blengino of FanGraphs went through an exercise last week ranking each MLB team's farm system in terms of impact.  Blengino defined "impact" as the number of players who "project as likely above average major league regulars," so it doesn't come as a shock that the Yankees ranked in the lower tier of this exercise.

The only true "impact" player that Blengino identifed was Gary Sanchez, although he did also tab Tyler Austin as a potential "non-impact MLB regular".  As was the case with most other organizational rankings this past offseason, the Yankees' strong group of lower-level prospects that could turn into "impact" players in the next few years kept them from falling further down the rankings.

Not the most clearly defined or statistically-supported method, but an interesting read nonetheless if you're looking for a different prospect evaluation method.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/16/14

After 2 losses on Saturday, the Yankees bounced back to win both their split squad games on Sunday.

- Masahiro Tanaka got the start in Tampa and he was very good again.  Went 4.1 innings, gave up a single run on 3 hits and his first 2 ST walks, and struck out 6.  Reports make it sound like he was throwing his offspeed stuff more than his fastball.

- In Panama, CC Sabathia was stellar in his 5 innings of work against the Marlins.  No runs, no hits, no walks, 5 Ks.  The big guy's velocity was still 88-89 tops, but his command was much better and he was hitting his spots.

- Ivan Nova, David Phelps, and Michael Pineda all threw bullpens.

- Tyler Austin took live BP and is on track to get into a game this week.  Brendan Ryan took swings and fielded grounders.  Still no exact timetable for his return to game action.

- Manny Banuelos was the latest roster cut, and he could start lower than Triple-A to spend more time shaking the rust off.  58 players left in camp.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: Season Storylines Wrap-Up

Week 1 of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview series is in the books, which means the start of the regular season is right around the corner.  If you were going to sum up the major storylines for the upcoming season with 1 word, I think that word would be "different".  Everything about this season feels a little different, including the offseason that was.  If you missed any of the individual "Season Storylines" posts from this past week, here they are.

- A Rotation in Transition

- Platoon City

- Tanakapalooza!

- Bridging The Gap

- The Captain Hangs 'Em Up

Starting tomorrow afternoon, we move into Week 2 of the season preview with the "What We Know & What We Don't Know" series, which breaks down the team by position group to get an idea of what the Opening Day roster is going to look like and what its strengths and weaknesses will be.  That series get started with the infield tomorrow.

Report: Ellsbury Scratched From Today's Lineup

Ellsbury was in today's lineup, but he has been removed with tightness in his right calf. Yankees say it's precautionary.
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) March 16, 2014

Well this isn't good news.  There was a report that Jacoby Ellsbury didn't take BP yesterday morning, but that turned out to be nothing because he hit inside instead so I don't think the 2 stories are related.  But being taken out of the lineup for health reasons is never a good thing.  Jack Curry said Ellsbury told Rob Thomson about it this morning and the decision was made.  According to Wally Matthews, Ellsbury is being called day-to-day right now and will not make the trip for the road game tomorrow.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/15/14

It was day 1 of the 2-day split squad series in Panama yesterday, and it didn't get off to the start the Yanks were hoping for as they lost both games.

- Back in the states, the Yanks fell 2-1 to the Orioles.  Vidal Nuno threw 4 scoreless innings with 3 Ks, allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk.  Brian Roberts went 2-3 against his former team.

- In the Panama nightcap, the Yankees were actually no-hit by the Marlins in a 5-0 loss.  Adam Warren was pretty good (4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K) but got no help.  The group of MLB regulars in the starting lineup went a combined 0-14 with 6 Ks and 1 BB.

- Larry Rothschild indicated that Masahiro Tanaka may start the 4th game of the regular season as a way to give him an extra day of rest.  Tanaka makes his latest ST start today.

- Eduardo Nunez is fine after getting spiked in Friday's game.  Russ Canzler has been getting treatment for some hip stiffness.

Would You Trade J.R. Murphy?

(Courtesy of Kim Klement/US Today Sports)

The hottest catcher name on the trade market streets might be Francisco Cervelli right now, but the better Yankee trade piece at the position might actually be John Ryan (formerly J.R.) Murphy.  The 22-year-old right-handed hitting and throwing catcher rocketed up the radar with a strong 2013 season that saw him contribute at 3 levels, and with fellow MiLers Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez needing playing time, he could be the perfect prospect candidate on which to sell high.

With his breakout 2013 season in Double and Triple-A, Murphy significantly raised his Major League projection to a league average and possibly better catcher.  He's shown the ability to hit for average, power, and to get on base, and his solid all-around defensive game is built on the strength of his ability to understand and work with his pitching staff.  Still, he's a very unknown commodity at the Major League level based on only 27 late-2013 PA and the truth is that he probably needs another repeat performance or improvement upon his 2013 output in Triple-A to solidify this new higher ceiling.

So what could Murphy fetch in return?  A high-level prospect of similar situation and equal value would be good, and one AB4AR reader has been banging the Chris Owings drum loudly in recent weeks.  Owings, also 22, is in a battle for the starting shortstop spot in Arizona and his Major League ceiling is questionable thanks to lack of patience at the plate.  The D'backs are in the market for more catching help and have been one of the team reportedly scouting the Yankee catchers this spring.  It would be a rare top prospect-for-top prospect deal that makes sense for both sides.  If it's not for something like that, then it's probably best for the Yanks to hold onto Murphy for now.

2014 Storylines: The Captain Hangs 'Em Up

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

For almost 20 years now, Derek Jeter has been synonymous with the New York Yankees.  Pick almost any term to describe the Yankees as a team and chances are it will apply perfectly to Jeter too.  He's a winner, a champion, a professional.  He's been consistent, overrated at times, underrated at others.  He's been smart on and off the field, and downright selfish at times even as he maintains a spotless reputation as a "team first" guy in the mainstream sports media.

More than anything else, he's been one of the greatest Yankees and greatest shortstops of all time in his 19-year career, and last month he announced that this upcoming season, his 20th, would be his last.  Fresh off a season-long goodbye to perhaps the most beloved Yankee of all time last season, this year Yankee fans will get to repeat those emotions with perhaps the most respected Yankee of all time.  The Captain will give it one last go before calling it a career, putting a period on the end of one of the greatest shortstop careers in baseball history and signifying the official end to the Core Four Era.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/14/14

Yanks fell 7-3 to the Twins yesterday in their final game before the weekend split series.

- David Phelps was so-so in his followup to his great last start.  He gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk in 4 IP, and struck out 4.  It was the type of inefficient outing that's always been a problem for him.

- Manny Banuelos struggled again, getting charged with 4 ER in less than an inning's work.  His spring ERA is now 63.00.  Dellin Betances, on the other hand, was brilliant, working 1.2 scoreless innings and getting out of a bases loaded jam.

- Hiroki Kuroda and Shawn Kelley threw bullpens in the morning.

- Brendan Ryan and Tyler Austin continued to progress in their efforts to return from injuries.  Ryan hit and took grounders and Austin had his first live BP session of the spring.

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 3/14/14

Just a quick note, the final post in the "2014 Storylines" series was supposed to be this afternoon, but I've been getting my ass kicked by a cold for the last few days.  I'll try to get it written sometime tomorrow, so check back for that.  Now onto the links!

- On Monday, SJK of NoMaas commented on the Ichiro situation and advised against trading him in a salary dump only move.  As little use as I have for Ichiro, I'm inclined to agree.  Move him only if you can get something of equal value back.

- On Tuesday, el duque of It Is High... predicted the inevitable Spring Training trade and didn't sound too optimistic about the possible return.

- SG of RLYW broke down the numbers to project Brian Roberts' 2014 season.  Not a lot of value there, as you'd probably expect.

- On Wednesday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog elaborated on the idea of Francisco Cervelli becoming a legit trade chip and used some historical comps to see what the future might hold for him elsewhere.

- Chad Jennings of LoHud talked to Slade Heathcott about his rehab from knee surgery and the changes he's trying to make to his approach.  Real good insight into Heathcott's mindset for this season.

- Jonathan Aron of Yanks Go Yard released Part I of his top 10 base stealers in Yankee history list.

- On Thursday, Michael Eder of IIATMS/TYA analyzed CC Sabathia's early mechanical struggles, complete with awesome layered gif showing the resulting command inconsistencies.

- Mike Axisa of RAB previewed his breakout prospect candidates for 2014.

- On Friday, Andrew Mearns of Pinstripe Alley explained why trading Francisco Cervelli for Gordon Beckham would be a bad idea.

- Chris Mitchell of Pinstripe Pundits attempted to put the Dellin Betances hype in the proper perspective and reminded everyone that there are better options available.

This week's jam is "Armatage Shanks" by Green Day.  Hadn't heard this one in a long time until it popped up on my iPod earlier this week.  Green Day wasn't half bad back in the day before they got too into wearing eyeliner.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

Over/Under: 2014 Statistical Predictions

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I've got a pretty bad cold going right now, so I wanted to keep this as simple as possible.  There are a lot of high expectations for new players this year and just as many uncertain expectations for some of the holdovers.  I want to set an over/under line for some of the more important players on the roster to gauge what kind of seasons people are expecting from them.  Let's get into it.

CC Sabathia- Over/Under 4.00 ERA

The big fella came in at 4.78 last year, a full run over his career ERA coming into the season.  It wasn't only the first time he'd posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2005, it was the first time he'd posted an ERA over 3.50 since 2005.  The hope was that another season removed from elbow surgery would get CC back on the right track, but so far his early ST results have left some to start wringing their hands over his velocity.  I'm going to be optimistic here and take the under, just barely.  Something like 3.97.