Ivan Nova's first spring start this past weekend was everything you would want to see from a young pitcher coming off a bad year: he was efficient (27 pitches in 2 innings), his velocity was good, he was aggressive with his fastball, and most importantly, he located that fastball. Nova threw 22 of his 27 pitches for strikes, the bulk of them 4-seamers, and drew praise from everybody for how well he commanded the pitch.
After the outing, it was revealed that Nova had been working on a new arm angle in the offseason, one designed to shorten up his release and make it easier to repeat. Michael Eder of IIATMS/TYA examined the change in arm angle yesterday and provided a side-by-side GIF comparison to show just how much shorter Nova's arm motion was. Based on the early results we saw on Saturday and the problems Nova had in 2012, this change in arm angle could be just what he needs to turn things around this season.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
So Cash Broke His Ankle Jumping Out Of An Airplane, Huh?
(Straight chillin' Courtesy of John Harper)
Can't say I blame him. I usually want to jump out of a plane when the Yankees have an off-day too.
Rimshot!
Just kidding. Actually it sounds like this was a pretty serious deal. There were early reports that Cash suffered a compound fracture, similar in severity to Joba's ankle injury this time last year. When asked by responding EMTs how he felt, Cash said, "Have you seen the guys we signed this offseason? How do you THINK I feel?!?"
DOUBLE RIMSHOT!!!
Seriously, folks, seriously. It's hard to get upset at a guy who doesn't have an on-the-field job getting injured doing something for a good cause. I only wish Cash would have waited a few weeks and did this on the anniversary of Joba's ankle injury. That would have been an MSM Twitter firestorm!
Slowed Down Spring For CC Continues, And It's Downright Brilliant
(No, that's not CC reacting to pain in his left elbow. And that's a good thing)
I jumped on the "reducing CC Sabathia's workload" bandwagon early, like as soon as the Yankees announced plans to do that this season. I became a card-carrying member of the "I Support Reducing CC's Workload Club" two weeks ago when he threw his first bullpen of the spring, a signal that the Yankees were taking the efforts to reduce his workload seriously. And I'm putting down money for the official club t-shirt after finding out last Thursday that the Yankees have pushed CC's first spring start back to March 15th. Chad Jennings had the details last week, which included Joe's desire to not have CC face the Blue Jays as scheduled on March 10th. As a result, Sabathia will throw another simulated game on the 10th, make his first official ST start on the 15th, and end up with only three total ST outings under his belt before taking the hill on Opening Day.
Early Spring Training Winners And Losers
(Winnah! Courtesy of the AP)
(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)
Greetings, IIATMS readers! For those of you who know me, I'm Brad V. from TYA and An A-Blog for A-Rod. For those who don't, I'll allow you a few minutes to peruse the archives of either of those sites and familiarize yourselves with my work. I'm going to be holding down the morning slot here on the new IIATMS/TYA Yankee superblog, and in the interest of full disclosure I might as well tell you right now that once the season starts I'm probably be going to use this slot to nitpick and complain about whatever went wrong in the previous night's game. I'll also be using it to comment on and analyze some bigger picture trends I've noticed in the team's or an individual player's recent performance. With that idea of trends in mind, I'd like to use my introductory post here to take a look at the early winners and losers in Spring Training. We've got two weeks of full-team workouts and games under our belt, and while that's not enough of a sample size to make definitive declarations, it's still enough to comment intelligently.
Another Slight AB4AR Expansion
Despite some of the rumors that have been suggested in the past few weeks, this is not to announce that I'm discontinuing the blog, adding writers to the blog, or even that I'm pregnant. It's none of that. As far as AB4AR goes, nothing is changing. The blog is staying right here, I'll continue to write for it every day, and hopefully continue to pretend to be a half-decent Yankee blogger. This announcement comes instead as another slight extension to the AB4AR market share in the Yankosphere.
Starting today, the IIATMS and TYA blogs will merge and become one. And as a part of the TYA family, I will be joining in that merger. If you're a regular reader of those blogs, you've probably noticed that both sites have had some personnel changes recently and that Stacey Gotsulias has taken over as the leader of IIATMS. The decision was made to merge both sites to make up for the personnel changes and create a megablog that combines, in my 100% honest opinion, the greatest collection of Yankee bloggers on the planet. And somehow they decided that giving me the 9:30 AM slot there was a wise decision, so that's my new gig as part of the super merger. Fools! If only they knew...
Between the regular staffs of both sites and the collection of familiar veteran bloggers that will pop in from time to time, there isn't another Yankee blog out there that boasts the depth and the talent of the new IIATMS/TYA, and in all honesty I'm just glad to be a part of it. And I wanted to let everybody here know to check me out over there and check out the site because it's going to kick ass. I'll be writing the same type of stuff you've come to know and
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Spring Training Game 10 Wrap-Up: NYY 5 BOS 2
(Good work, kid. Courtesy of the AP)
We're two weeks into camp and things are starting to pick up. Starting pitchers are making their second trips through the rotation, more veterans are getting deeper into their spring routines, players are leaving camp for the WBC, and roster battles are starting to change after the first small sample size results. It's only right that I keep up with the players and get another ST game recap under my belt.
Rooting For Ronnier Mustelier
Ronnier Mustelier is one of the more interesting free agents the Yankees have signed in the past few years. He's a Cuban defector, but came with little fanfare as a 26-year-old signee, something that hasn't been the norm for the Yankees when they've dipped into the Cuban market in the past. He doesn't look like a traditional baseball player, short and stocky, yet he's played all around the infield and outfield and has done nothing but hit since entering the Yankee MiL system in 2011. I've always kept an eye on Mustelier, but after reading Mark Feinsand's short profile piece on him yesterday, I'm officially a Ronnier Mustelier fan.
In the post, Feinsand gets a couple of great quotes from Mustelier on his efforts to make the Major League roster this spring. Feinsand also mentions that Mustelier's family, including his young son, are back in Cuba and that he hasn't seen his son for four months. That's something I didn't know and something that makes Mustelier's situation even more intriguing. He comes across as determined but humble in the article, and his entire story is borderline worthy of being the next Disney "overcoming the odds"-type sports movie- a young, unknown, Cuban baseball player leaves his family and son behind to chase his dream of playing Major League baseball, then works his way through the entire Minor Leagues in two years to earn an opportunity to win a spot on the New York Yankees. That's good stuff right there.
Despite a strong start to his spring (3-6 w/ a HR), Mustelier is a very long longshot to win a roster spot. At best right now, he probably sits 5th in the outfielder competition behind Rivera, Diaz, Mesa, and Zoilo Almonte. But the Yanks didn't move him through the system that quickly and invite him to ST just to let him rot. If Mustelier keeps producing and another opportunity presents itself, he could find his way into pinstripes this year.
In the post, Feinsand gets a couple of great quotes from Mustelier on his efforts to make the Major League roster this spring. Feinsand also mentions that Mustelier's family, including his young son, are back in Cuba and that he hasn't seen his son for four months. That's something I didn't know and something that makes Mustelier's situation even more intriguing. He comes across as determined but humble in the article, and his entire story is borderline worthy of being the next Disney "overcoming the odds"-type sports movie- a young, unknown, Cuban baseball player leaves his family and son behind to chase his dream of playing Major League baseball, then works his way through the entire Minor Leagues in two years to earn an opportunity to win a spot on the New York Yankees. That's good stuff right there.
Despite a strong start to his spring (3-6 w/ a HR), Mustelier is a very long longshot to win a roster spot. At best right now, he probably sits 5th in the outfielder competition behind Rivera, Diaz, Mesa, and Zoilo Almonte. But the Yanks didn't move him through the system that quickly and invite him to ST just to let him rot. If Mustelier keeps producing and another opportunity presents itself, he could find his way into pinstripes this year.
When Does Boon Logan's Elbow Stop Being A "Minor" Issue?
(Courtesy of Reuters)
Two weeks ago, we read about Boone Logan walking around camp with his left arm wrapped after a short throwing session and got the dreaded "just being cautious" explanation from pitching coach Larry Rothschild. I say "dreaded" because it's never good to know that a pitcher coming off a career high workload the previous season is feeling discomfort in his pitching arm the following spring, especially when the discomfort is in his elbow.
Logan has thrown a few side sessions here and there in the last two weeks, but has still yet to get into a game this spring. Of the pitchers who expected to be ready for the start of the season, only four haven't pitched in a game yet. Two of them (Mo and CC) are recovering from surgeries, one of them (Hughes) hurt himself early in camp, and the other is Logan, who hasn't been officially diagnosed with any injury to his left arm but according to Sweeny Murti is being "shut down for a few days" after going for an MRI on his sore elbow yesterday.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Nova Solid In His Spring Debut
Ivan Nova followed up Hiroki Kuroda's "meh" Major League starter debut yesterday with a much better performance in his first spring start and first shot back at David Phelps in this year's 5th starter competition. Nova threw 27 pitches in 2 scoreless innings of work, an impressive 22 of them for strikes. He gave up just 1 hit, struck out a batter, and got 3 groundball outs. After Phelps came into camp ahead of everybody else in his throwing program and made two good starts of his own before Nova got in a game, Nova responded in kind today.
The drama of the 5th starter competition, if there ever really was any, was weakened a bit this week with the announcement that Phil Hughes "might" not be ready for the start of the season. Phelps would be the obvious choice to replace him and Nova would be bumped up to the four spot in the rotation. But that still doesn't mean this isn't an important spring for Ivan as he tries to get ready to turn things around from last season's disaster, and today's outing was a very good start. He looked sharp, commanded his fastball well, and consistently sat 93-94 with it. When he's pitching like that, he's more than capable of being a better-than-5th starter.
P.S.- I don't know why, but I've had a good feeling about Nova since I started writing about him and Phelps competing for the 5th rotation spot this year. I'm going to be paying close attention to him this spring because I believe in his K/BB trends from last season, and I think he can be a good pitcher if he cleans up his location.
The drama of the 5th starter competition, if there ever really was any, was weakened a bit this week with the announcement that Phil Hughes "might" not be ready for the start of the season. Phelps would be the obvious choice to replace him and Nova would be bumped up to the four spot in the rotation. But that still doesn't mean this isn't an important spring for Ivan as he tries to get ready to turn things around from last season's disaster, and today's outing was a very good start. He looked sharp, commanded his fastball well, and consistently sat 93-94 with it. When he's pitching like that, he's more than capable of being a better-than-5th starter.
P.S.- I don't know why, but I've had a good feeling about Nova since I started writing about him and Phelps competing for the 5th rotation spot this year. I'm going to be paying close attention to him this spring because I believe in his K/BB trends from last season, and I think he can be a good pitcher if he cleans up his location.
Melkman 2.0 Decides Not To Deliver To The DR
(Courtesy of the AP)
It's been a strong start to Spring Training for Melky Mesa. In just 16 plate appearances he's hit 2 home runs, stolen 2 bases, driven in 4 runs, showcased his athletic skills that make him a plus defensive player at all three outfield spots, and even drawn a walk. That strong start may have led him to believe it was in his best interests to stick around in camp rather than leave to participate in the World Baseball Classic, and per Chad Jennings of LoHud that's exactly what he's going to do.
In Jennings' report, he mentions that the Yankees did not encourage Mesa to skip the WBC, and I don't see any reason why they would. As long as guys are playing in the spring and getting regular reps, that's all that matters. But in the same vein as Francisco Cervelli, Mesa probably saw the opportunity in front of him to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster after C-Grand went down and decided he stood a better chance of winning that spot by staying in camp and continuing to prove himself to the Yankee coaching staff. That plan has worked very well for Cervelli so far, and if Mesa can continue to display his power and speed it could end up working for him as well.
Labels:
2013 Outfield,
Melky Mesa,
Quick Hits,
Roster Battles
Friday, March 1, 2013
Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 3/1/13
Sometimes when I'm pulling onto a road when there aren't a lot of cars around, I like to time my pull out with the passing of the car that is driving by. I'm always secretly hoping they see me do that and think to themselves that they're being tailed, that I'm some kind of hitman or black book government operative tasked with following them and their every move and then either reporting back to HQ with my intel or taking them out. I'm secretly hoping that because that's usually what I'm thinking about in my head when I pull in behind them, and I'm thinking that because I am a perpetual 12-year-old. Between my fake black ops missions and always texting, I am the worst person to drive with. If I ever offer you a ride, you'd be smart to turn me down and take the bus. Now onto the links!
- On Monday, el duque of It Is High... let it be known that he doesn't want to see a repeat of 2012's "rotating aging veteran" approach to replacing C-Grand, but also didn't exactly throw his support in the corner of the young guys either.
- SG of RLYW used his latest CAIRO projections to rank the internal C-Grand replacement candidates.
- On Tuesday, Chris Mitchell of Pinstripe Pundits looked up some historical comparisons to try to predict Eduardo Nunez's future as a shortstop. I'll let you decide for yourselves, but I didn't find them encouraging for a guy whose rep has been "Jeter's successor" at times before.
- EJ Fagan of TYA preached the idea of being sellers at the deadline if the Yanks are out of playoff contention, and put together an interesting list of trade comparisons for some of their bigger trade chips.
- Benjamin Orr of Yanks Go Yard discussed expectations for Mariano Rivera in his comeback/final season, and gave his own stat line prediction for Mo.
- On Wednesday, Mason Stark of Pinstriped Bible explained why he doesn't go to the new Stadium, and the influence that the shift in Yankee organizational priorities had on the decision.
- Rilwan Ameen of Bronx Baseball Daily looked at the unfamiliar position the Yankees find themselves in heading into this season. It's a worthwhile point, but I don't think I'd go far enough to call a team with a $200 million payroll "underdogs."
- On Thursday, Mike Axisa of RAB continued his stellar spring "Hot .GIF Action" series with a collection of the best and worst of the always erratic Dellin Betances. Sweet fancy Moses, those last two pitches sucked.
- Daniel Burch of The Greedy Pinstripes put together a prospect profile/career retrospective on new Yankee Travis Hafner.
- SJK of NoMaas mused on the idea of a Ronnier Mustelier or a Zoilo Almonte making the Opening Day roster.
- Chad Jennings of LoHud updated the starting catcher battle by talking about the night-and-day different starts to camp for Cervelli and TCS.
- On Friday, Jimmy T. of Yankees Fans Unite profiled top prospect Slade Heathcott.
- Stacey Gotsulias of IIATMS gave her two cents on the ongoing Eduardo Nunez saga and where she thinks he's the best fit.
This week's Friday Jam is "Green Machine" by Kyuss. That song has been in and out of my head consistently for the last month and I finally saved up enough pennies to buy "Blues For the Red Sun" on iTunes this week, because I never EVER illegally download anything.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody.
- On Monday, el duque of It Is High... let it be known that he doesn't want to see a repeat of 2012's "rotating aging veteran" approach to replacing C-Grand, but also didn't exactly throw his support in the corner of the young guys either.
- SG of RLYW used his latest CAIRO projections to rank the internal C-Grand replacement candidates.
- On Tuesday, Chris Mitchell of Pinstripe Pundits looked up some historical comparisons to try to predict Eduardo Nunez's future as a shortstop. I'll let you decide for yourselves, but I didn't find them encouraging for a guy whose rep has been "Jeter's successor" at times before.
- EJ Fagan of TYA preached the idea of being sellers at the deadline if the Yanks are out of playoff contention, and put together an interesting list of trade comparisons for some of their bigger trade chips.
- Benjamin Orr of Yanks Go Yard discussed expectations for Mariano Rivera in his comeback/final season, and gave his own stat line prediction for Mo.
- On Wednesday, Mason Stark of Pinstriped Bible explained why he doesn't go to the new Stadium, and the influence that the shift in Yankee organizational priorities had on the decision.
- Rilwan Ameen of Bronx Baseball Daily looked at the unfamiliar position the Yankees find themselves in heading into this season. It's a worthwhile point, but I don't think I'd go far enough to call a team with a $200 million payroll "underdogs."
- On Thursday, Mike Axisa of RAB continued his stellar spring "Hot .GIF Action" series with a collection of the best and worst of the always erratic Dellin Betances. Sweet fancy Moses, those last two pitches sucked.
- Daniel Burch of The Greedy Pinstripes put together a prospect profile/career retrospective on new Yankee Travis Hafner.
- SJK of NoMaas mused on the idea of a Ronnier Mustelier or a Zoilo Almonte making the Opening Day roster.
- Chad Jennings of LoHud updated the starting catcher battle by talking about the night-and-day different starts to camp for Cervelli and TCS.
- On Friday, Jimmy T. of Yankees Fans Unite profiled top prospect Slade Heathcott.
- Stacey Gotsulias of IIATMS gave her two cents on the ongoing Eduardo Nunez saga and where she thinks he's the best fit.
This week's Friday Jam is "Green Machine" by Kyuss. That song has been in and out of my head consistently for the last month and I finally saved up enough pennies to buy "Blues For the Red Sun" on iTunes this week, because I never EVER illegally download anything.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody.
Now Is The Perfect Time To Let The Kids Play
(Melkman 2.0 can't be a worse option than Diaz. Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)
"Let the kids play." "Give the kids a chance." "Let's see what the kids can do." Those sentiments, and all their similar variations, have been a Yankee fan battle cry for a while and have gotten louder as the Bombers have transitioned to an older team. I myself have been a supporter of the "let the kids play" movement at various times in the last few years, as the strategy to fill out the bench each offseason has become "wait for all the dust to settle and then cherry pick from whatever warm bodies are still without a job." This season, the "let the kids play" cry has gotten even louder early in Spring Training, and more of those kids are getting substantial playing time against Major League competition in the early innings of ST games. There is always going to be the argument for and against giving roster spots and opportunities to unproven MiL players, and for years the Yankees' preference for veteran players made sense. This year, however, the situation is perfect to finally ditch that way of thinking and let the kids play.
Yanks Reportedly Make An Offer To Cano
(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)
The walls of the strict Yankee "no contract extensions" policy started to crumble recently when Hal Steinbrenner confirmed the team had been in talks with Robinson Cano and his agent Scott Boras about a new deal. Those walls continue to come crashing down after yesterday's report of an actual contract offer being given to Cano. Dan Barbarisi had the story, tweeting that Cash himself confirmed a "significant offer" had been made. It almost goes without saying that the Yankees' definition of "significant" and Boras' definition in this case will be drastically different, but it's another step in the right direction towards bringing Cano back.
More importantly, it's another big sign that the Yankee front office has smartened up when it comes to doing business on a budget. Waiting until Cano hit the open market was going to force them to shell out more money and more years if they really wanted to keep him, and chances are that's still what's going to happen with Boras at the controls. But by continuing to negotiate with Cano and make contract offers, the Yankees get themselves a bigger headstart again their free agent competition, show Cano they are serious about wanting him back, and give themselves a better chance of working out a deal closer to what they're comfortable with than they would have had if they waited until October/November to start talking.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Teix Now Front And Center On The "Needs To Produce" Radar
(More swings like this, please. Courtesy of Getty Images)
2013 was already going to be an important year for Mark Teixeira. After a stellar Yankee debut season in 2009, the last three have been a downhill trend of offensive regression and 2013 was shaping up to be the tipping point for the rest of Teix's Yankee career. He could either bounce back and prove that he still had enough in the tank to be a consistent middle-of-the-order threat, or continue his decline, officially enter the downside of his career, and become the latest contract anchor on the payroll.
Teix's comments to Dan Barbarisi a few weeks ago showed that he was very aware that he had reached this stage in his career, and his candor and openness about his regression was refreshing to read in a modern sports world full of excuses and cliches. But that position became much less acceptable when A-Rod had his surgery and even more unacceptable when Curtis Granderson was shelved over the weekend. Teix is now more important than ever to the lineup and the Yankees' chances for success this season, a point Mike Axisa touched on earlier in the week. After spending four years flying under the radar in the Bronx, the spotlight is going to shine brighter on Teix than it ever has, and he needs to step up and meet the challenge.
Labels:
2013 Lineup,
Hitting Trends,
Mark Teixeira,
Regression
Don't Get Too Jumpy About Hughes Just Yet
(Courtesy of the AP)
The latest bad injury news came in yesterday when Joe said "it's possible" that Phil Hughes won't be ready for the start of the season due to the bulging disk in his back. At least it's bad news if you consider that tiny morsel of vague information news. Hughes has done nothing but work out in a pool since the injury was diagnosed, and there's still no definite timetable for when he'll pick up a ball and throw again, let alone pitch in a ST game.
But Joe also acknowledged that it's still "too early to tell that" when delivering his pseudo-update on Hughes' condition, and with as much time as there still is in ST he's right. Hughes has another two weeks before time really starts to work against him, and as a guy with a history of back injuries it's better to use as much of that time as he needs and not rush back to risk further injury. It's possible that Hughes won't be ready for the start of the season just like it's possible that Jeter won't and just like there's "a chance" that A-Rod won't make it back at all this season. Until we have a better idea of when he's going to start throwing again, it's not worth wringing our hands over.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Analyzing The Early Season "Sans-Granderson" Schedule
(Coach 'em up, guy. Courtesy of Ron Antonelli/NY Daily News)
For all the talk about the projected strengths and weaknesses of this year's team, and the adjustments that now have to be made to make up for the loss of Curtis Granderson, nobody out there (myself included) has really looked at the schedule to see how difficult or easy a time the Yankees will have making those adjustments. It's easy to say that every team in the AL East has gotten better (not all of them have) and the Yankee have gotten worse, but what teams the Yanks play and when they play them can have just as big an effect on their early-season success or failure as the makeup of their own club. With that in mind, and as a way to tie together all the "what are they going to do to get by without C-Grand?" talk and this morning's sobering offensive projection, let's take a look at the early schedule and set some realistic expectations for what the Yankees can do.
Joba's Latest Words Signal Future Intentions
There's been plenty of talk about what the future has in store for upcoming free agents like Robbie Cano, Phil Hughes, and C-Grand, but there's another upcoming FA who's not getting a lot of attention, at least not until yesterday. Joba Chamberlain's contract is also up after this season, and he made it pretty clear what his intentions are with his comments about his ability to pitch as a starter again. Joba has been a full-time reliever with the Yankees since 2010, and at this point there's no chance they make the attempt to convert him back to a starter. Joba's best chance to get that chance again is being signed by a team willing to at least try him out as a starting pitcher and his statements yesterday certainly seemed like Joba trying to set that precedent early and up his value on the open market.
The timing of Joba's comments can be called into question, and I did like both Joe and Cash subliminally pointing that out in their responses to Joba, but at the same time I can't really get on Joba for saying what he said. He's 27 years old, hitting free agency for the first time in his career, and doesn't have much of a resume to show off in an attempt to get a big deal. The Yankees and their handling/mishandling of the early years of his career are a contributing factor to that light resume. Their commitment to letting him start was always weak at best, and even though his career starter splits aren't Strasburg-ian, a 4.18/4.27/4.17 slash over 221.2 IP in 43 starts as a 23/24-year-old is hardly a good reason to pull the plug. Joba' has the right to speak his mind and do what he feels is in his best interests, same as the team has used him to fit their best interests.
Some are going to spin this as Joba not being focused on this season and not being focused on the team, but I don't see it that way. If anything, I think this is a sign that Joba is more focused and feeling better than he has in years. He's healthy again and he knows his opportunities to prove himself this season are going to be limited. It's no fun thinking about the prospect of him leaving for another club, but if this is the first step towards a return of the flame-throwing, fist-pumping, post-K-screaming Joba, I'm OK with it.
The timing of Joba's comments can be called into question, and I did like both Joe and Cash subliminally pointing that out in their responses to Joba, but at the same time I can't really get on Joba for saying what he said. He's 27 years old, hitting free agency for the first time in his career, and doesn't have much of a resume to show off in an attempt to get a big deal. The Yankees and their handling/mishandling of the early years of his career are a contributing factor to that light resume. Their commitment to letting him start was always weak at best, and even though his career starter splits aren't Strasburg-ian, a 4.18/4.27/4.17 slash over 221.2 IP in 43 starts as a 23/24-year-old is hardly a good reason to pull the plug. Joba' has the right to speak his mind and do what he feels is in his best interests, same as the team has used him to fit their best interests.
Some are going to spin this as Joba not being focused on this season and not being focused on the team, but I don't see it that way. If anything, I think this is a sign that Joba is more focused and feeling better than he has in years. He's healthy again and he knows his opportunities to prove himself this season are going to be limited. It's no fun thinking about the prospect of him leaving for another club, but if this is the first step towards a return of the flame-throwing, fist-pumping, post-K-screaming Joba, I'm OK with it.
Latest ZiPS Projections Not Kind To The Yankee Offense
Not to belabor the point, but the Yankee offense has taken a beating these last 4+ months. Through players lost, lesser players added, players getting injured, and players recovering from injuries, the starting lineup on Opening Day could look drastically different than in recent years and drastically weaker as well. Dan Szymborski of ESPN, master of the ZiPS projection system, attempted to project just how much weaker the lineup could be after the Curtis Granderson injury by running the latest projected lineup through a simulator.
It's an Insider Only piece, but there are only a few key things you need to know to get the point of this exercise. One is that Szymborski left Derek Jeter out of this lineup projection, not an entirely unfair move with Jeter's Opening Day status still in the air. The other is that the projected lineup looked like this: 1) Gardner, 2) Ichiro, 3) Cano, 4) Teix, 5) Youkilis, 6) Hafner, 7) Rivera, 8) Stewart, 9) Nunez. You don't have to be a sabermetric genius to figure out that that lineup ain't much. But just how bad does it project to be? I'm glad you asked.
It's an Insider Only piece, but there are only a few key things you need to know to get the point of this exercise. One is that Szymborski left Derek Jeter out of this lineup projection, not an entirely unfair move with Jeter's Opening Day status still in the air. The other is that the projected lineup looked like this: 1) Gardner, 2) Ichiro, 3) Cano, 4) Teix, 5) Youkilis, 6) Hafner, 7) Rivera, 8) Stewart, 9) Nunez. You don't have to be a sabermetric genius to figure out that that lineup ain't much. But just how bad does it project to be? I'm glad you asked.
Labels:
Lineups,
Offensive Production,
Projections,
Team Analysis
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Johnny Damon? No Thanks
As part of the MLB-wide reaction to the Curtis Granderson injury, Johnny Damon's name popped up yesterday as a possible cheap stopgap option. Damon himself spoke at length about his desire to return to the Yankees and his willingness to work around their needs as a temporary player:
“You guys know that I would have tons of interest to go to New York. But I just don’t think they would be interested. They have had plenty of opportunities and I kept raising my hand, wanting to go back and, you know, hopefully it would be a perfect fit. It always had been. Have me for six weeks and then send me off on my merry way. That’s fine.”
Damon's interest in returning to New York has been a yearly offseason topic of discussion for him, but as he said, the feeling hasn't been mutual from the Yankees' side. A year or two ago he would have made sense as a 4th outfielder, but based on his recent performance I don't think that argument still holds. Damon hit just .222/.281/.329 (.271 wOBA) in 224 PA for Cleveland last year before being cut, with his lowest BB rate since 1996. He's been on a rapid decline since leaving the Yankees after the '09 season, and even though he still rates positively as a defensive outfielder, it would be a stretch to say he's a better offensive option than the collection of guys already in-house who have to step up and cover for the loss of C-Grand.
So sorry, John. You'll always have a place in Yankee history, and I know I'll never forget the double stolen base in Game 4 of the '09 World Series, but you just don't cut the mustard anymore.
“You guys know that I would have tons of interest to go to New York. But I just don’t think they would be interested. They have had plenty of opportunities and I kept raising my hand, wanting to go back and, you know, hopefully it would be a perfect fit. It always had been. Have me for six weeks and then send me off on my merry way. That’s fine.”
Damon's interest in returning to New York has been a yearly offseason topic of discussion for him, but as he said, the feeling hasn't been mutual from the Yankees' side. A year or two ago he would have made sense as a 4th outfielder, but based on his recent performance I don't think that argument still holds. Damon hit just .222/.281/.329 (.271 wOBA) in 224 PA for Cleveland last year before being cut, with his lowest BB rate since 1996. He's been on a rapid decline since leaving the Yankees after the '09 season, and even though he still rates positively as a defensive outfielder, it would be a stretch to say he's a better offensive option than the collection of guys already in-house who have to step up and cover for the loss of C-Grand.
So sorry, John. You'll always have a place in Yankee history, and I know I'll never forget the double stolen base in Game 4 of the '09 World Series, but you just don't cut the mustard anymore.
The Problem With Brett Gardner
(He does deserve props for the bunt. Courtesy of the AP)
Getting Brett Gardner back is going to be a huge boost for the Yankees this year. His count-working ability and speed on the basepaths brings back a key missing element to the team's offense and gives Joe another lead-off option, and that same speed makes him arguably the team's best and most important defensive player wherever he is in the outfield. When Gardner went down last season, the team's speed went down with him, and getting that speed back is a huge blessing for a team that's lost a big chunk of its power. But Gardner's speed can also be a curse, something that can and has gotten him into trouble before. Nowhere was that more apparent than in his first at-bat of yesterday's game.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Weird Injury Situations Already Popping Up This Year
(Never a good look. Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)
Spring Training still isn't two weeks old and already it's been an eventful one for the Yankees, especially in the health department. The Bombers had their fair share of injury concerns coming into camp with A-Rod's hip surgery and their collection of veterans fighting to come back on schedule from major 2012 injuries. And after a season as injury-plagued as 2012, it would have been nice to have a spring that was light on the injury news. I guess the infamous baseball gods didn't get that memo because these first two weeks have been chock full of injury stories, and not just from the expected recovery sources. As luck would have it, none of those guys have been problem areas at all so far, quite the opposite in fact.
Mo Ahead Of Schedule Again This Spring, Could Indicate Retirement Plans
When Mariano Rivera showed up early to camp (by his standards) last season and started throwing earlier than he usually did, it was a pretty strong indicator that 2012 was going to be his last season. Those plans got derailed by his ACL injury, but it appears Mo is taking a similar approach this spring as he puts the finishing touches on his comeback from surgery.
Now it could just be a coincidence that he's on almost the same schedule he was last year- arrive the day after pitchers and catchers report, starting throwing bullpens and side sessions weeks earlier than he used to- and the timing of Mo's ST activities could be dictated more by his knee rehab schedule than personal preference, but it's still worth nothing that he's ahead of where he usually is at this point in ST. He faced live hitters for the second time this morning and said the knee felt good. The next step is still pitching in full game situation settings and seeing how he moves when he has to field a grounder or cover first base, but Mo himself talks like he's not worried about that.
Mo said a few weeks ago he had made a decision on his future after this season but that he wasn't going to announce that decision yet. I saw his accelerated schedule last ST as a sign that he was going to hang 'em up after the season, and even if that similar schedule this spring is being driven by the knee rehab and not Mo's own plans I still feel it's that same sign. On the one hand, it's great to see that Mo is progressing nicely and not suffering any setbacks on his road to recovery. On the other, it's never good to have to think about Mo retiring again.
Now it could just be a coincidence that he's on almost the same schedule he was last year- arrive the day after pitchers and catchers report, starting throwing bullpens and side sessions weeks earlier than he used to- and the timing of Mo's ST activities could be dictated more by his knee rehab schedule than personal preference, but it's still worth nothing that he's ahead of where he usually is at this point in ST. He faced live hitters for the second time this morning and said the knee felt good. The next step is still pitching in full game situation settings and seeing how he moves when he has to field a grounder or cover first base, but Mo himself talks like he's not worried about that.
Mo said a few weeks ago he had made a decision on his future after this season but that he wasn't going to announce that decision yet. I saw his accelerated schedule last ST as a sign that he was going to hang 'em up after the season, and even if that similar schedule this spring is being driven by the knee rehab and not Mo's own plans I still feel it's that same sign. On the one hand, it's great to see that Mo is progressing nicely and not suffering any setbacks on his road to recovery. On the other, it's never good to have to think about Mo retiring again.
Impact & Effects Of C-Grand's Fractured Forearm
(Why pitch that far inside in late February??? Courtesy of the AP)
I've been tougher on Curtis Granderson than most these past few seasons, admittedly shifting from excitement about his new power swing to disappointment that it sapped so much of the rest of what used to be a well-rounded offensive game. But even I can't try to spin his fractured right forearm into anything remotely positive because there's simply nothing positive to take from it. Granderson was one of the handful of players the Yankees couldn't afford to lose this year, Teix and Cano being the other two, and to lose him for 10 weeks, even if half of that time is Spring Training time, is a huge blow. The baseball season doesn't give you timeouts or do-overs, though, so the Yankees must move forward with the players they have and try to figure out a strategy for how to get by without C-Grand until May.
There are a lot of aftershocks that will be felt throughout the ST roster and lineup, from now until the regular season starts, and a lot of players who are going to be looked at differently for the rest of spring camp. In order of most immediately important to least, here are the biggest effects of C-Grand's injury.
Labels:
Curtis Granderson,
Injury Effects,
Roster Decisions
Sunday, February 24, 2013
BREAKING NEWS: Curtis Granderson Out With A Fractured Right Forearm
I was hoping it wouldn't be this bad after first reading that he had left the game after getting hit on the right wrist in his first AB of 2013, but the Yankees are calling Curtis Granderson's injury a fractured right forearm according to multiple reporters, and he is expected to be out 10 weeks.
This is obviously a huge unexpected blow to the Yankees and what was expected to be a weaker offense this year. More details to come on this story as they become available.
** UPDATE 2:05 PM- Just to clarify, the 10 weeks includes time needed to recover and rehab (via Jack Curry). **
** UPDATE 2:29PM- Granderson on the injury- "I was excited. My body was feeling good, mind was feeling good and I was ready to go. Five pitches in we have a little setback. They said it could be worse. Now we rest, recover, get it back and get ready to play whenever that day comes. " (via Mark Feinsand) **
** UPDATE 2:52PM- Via Bryan Hoch, Cash has already ruled out the possibility of Eduardo Nunez being an OF replacement for Granderson. **
** UPDATE 3:19PM- Via Erik Boland, Cash has said that all current replacement options are internal. We'll see how long that lasts. **
This is obviously a huge unexpected blow to the Yankees and what was expected to be a weaker offense this year. More details to come on this story as they become available.
** UPDATE 2:05 PM- Just to clarify, the 10 weeks includes time needed to recover and rehab (via Jack Curry). **
** UPDATE 2:29PM- Granderson on the injury- "I was excited. My body was feeling good, mind was feeling good and I was ready to go. Five pitches in we have a little setback. They said it could be worse. Now we rest, recover, get it back and get ready to play whenever that day comes. " (via Mark Feinsand) **
** UPDATE 2:52PM- Via Bryan Hoch, Cash has already ruled out the possibility of Eduardo Nunez being an OF replacement for Granderson. **
** UPDATE 3:19PM- Via Erik Boland, Cash has said that all current replacement options are internal. We'll see how long that lasts. **
Yanks Not Willing To Give Up Much For Soriano
As the transition from offseason to preseason has been made, the chatter about what players the Yankees might go after to fill out their roster, or at least add depth for the ST competitions, has quieted down considerably. One player whose name never really picked up a lot of steam was Alfonso Soriano, who the Cubs would love to get rid of and who would have been a great fit for the Yankees' righty OF needs. Earlier this week, Jon Heyman all but put the final nail in the coffin of any "Soriano to the Yanks" possibility by tweeting that the Yankees weren't willing to give up much in the way of prospects to bring Soriano back.
According to Heyman, the Yankees wouldn't be willing to give up a "good" prospect let alone a top one for Soriano, who still has 2 years and $36 mil left on his current contract. Heyman did say they would be willing to pay 10 of the remaining $36 million, but with Theo looking to add talent to his rebuilding project in Chicago that bit of financial relief won't be enough to get a deal done if it doesn't include said talent. When I wrote about the idea of adding Soriano late last year, I said I'd like to have him if the costs required tipped a little more in the Yankees' favor. If even a good prospect is still a part of those costs, I'm more than willing to pass on Soriano and it appears the Yankee brass is as well.
According to Heyman, the Yankees wouldn't be willing to give up a "good" prospect let alone a top one for Soriano, who still has 2 years and $36 mil left on his current contract. Heyman did say they would be willing to pay 10 of the remaining $36 million, but with Theo looking to add talent to his rebuilding project in Chicago that bit of financial relief won't be enough to get a deal done if it doesn't include said talent. When I wrote about the idea of adding Soriano late last year, I said I'd like to have him if the costs required tipped a little more in the Yankees' favor. If even a good prospect is still a part of those costs, I'm more than willing to pass on Soriano and it appears the Yankee brass is as well.
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