Imagining A World Where Brian Roberts Is Healthy And Productive

(Don't tweak a hammy there, bro.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Between all the moves the Yankees have made this offseason and the players they have returning from injuries, the one position where they really downgraded is second base.  That was an inevitability when their former second baseman happened to be the best second baseman on the planet, and the team's attempts to replace Robinson Cano have been pretty lame.  Plans for a true platoon at the position have fallen by the wayside as a result of their equally lame attempts to find an adequate starting third baseman, and when Spring Training starts the Yanks will open camp with 36-year-old Brian Roberts penciled in as the everyday man at second.

I say penciled in because we're all familiar with Roberts', ahem, diverse injury history over the past 4 years.  Jokes about his eventual DL trip(s) have become a staple across each and every comment section in the Yankosphere and justifiably so.  For whatever reasons, Roberts has been unable to shake the injury bug and stay on the field.  There's little reason to expect that to change in 2014, but all the jokes at Roberts' expense have overshadowed the fact that the guy is a 2-time All Star and was, for a good stretch of time, one of the best all-around second basemen in the game.  That being the case, what if Roberts were to buck the trend and somehow manage to stay healthy AND productive this season?  What would that do for the Yankees?

What Is Preston Claiborne's Ceiling?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

On Monday, I took a quick peek back at Preston Claiborne's 2013 season.  He became the latest homegrown reliever to graduate to the show last year and as we all know now that graduation resulted in some very mixed results.  Long story short, Claiborne started off like a house on fire in May and June, pitched pretty well in July, then fell apart in August and September.  All together it added up to a 4.11/4.14/3.88 slash line, 19.6% K rate, 6.5% BB rate, and 0.2 fWAR in 50.1 IP.

Despite my multiple suggestions that the Yankees need to go out and acquire another relief pitcher, including the latest one from a few days ago, they seem prepared to head to camp with what they've got and sort out the back end of their relief corp in Spring Training.  That leaves Claiborne as the unofficial "7th Inning Guy" right now, at least I'm assuming it does since he was the 4th of the 4 guys Joe mentioned by name when asked about the bullpen last month.  That's not a bad spot to be for a player who never popped up on any top prospect lists while he worked his way through the system and never had his stuff talked about by scouts anywhere near as much as a Dellin Betances or a Jose Ramirez or even a Mark Montgomery.  The question now becomes can Claiborne hold onto that spot this year?  And looking further down the road, can he develop into anything more than a middle reliever?

What Could A-Rod Have Done For The Yankees This Season?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Barring a highly improbable decision by the federal courts, Alex Rodriguez will not play a single Major League game this season for the Yankees or any other team.  His playing career as we know it looks like it could be over and if he does try to come back in 2015 he may be on the receiving end of a beanball targeting that would make what Ryan Dempster did last August look like a walk in the park.

While the Yankees know that A-Rod will not be their starting third baseman this season, they've still yet to figure out who will be.  We know that they're bringing a small army of replacement level competitors to Spring Training.  The most likely scenario is that 2 of those players split time at the hot corner as part of a replacement platoon, at least until one of them gets hurt or sucks so badly that someone else needs to replace him.  It's a risky strategic decision given how much money the Yankees have spent to upgrade the rest of their lineup this offseason, and one that could backfire if they're unable to get consistent production and value out of the position.

Projecting Michael Pineda As A Starter In 2014

(Courtesy of William Perlman/The Star-Ledger)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

After 1 failed trade and 2 lost seasons, it appears as though the Yankees will finally get to see what Michael Pineda can do in 2014.  Actually, it might not be what he can do so much as they'll at least get to see him throw a pitch in a regular season game.  The shoulder injury suffered in 2012 may have taken away enough of what Pineda had to prevent him from ever being the pitcher he was or becoming the pitcher he could have been.  The Yankees certainly treated him as carefully as possible in his rehab from the injury to increase the chances of him making a full recovery.  They placed him on strict pitch count limits last year in the Minors and shut him down early after he reportedly felt some stiffness and soreness in the surgically-repaired shoulder late in the summer.  Still, there's no way to know what type of pitcher he's going to be moving forward until he's back out competing on a Major League mound.

Projecting David Phelps As A Starter In 2014

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I continue to stand by my belief that the Yankees will not actually follow through with their plan to fill out next year's rotation from within if, for whatever reason, they don't end up signing Masahiro Tanaka.  If they do decide to take that path, however, I don't think there will be much of a competition in Spring Training to determine the final 2 spots.  Michael Pineda was brought in to be a top-of-the-rotation stud along side CC Sabathia.  Regardless of whether he's still capable of being that type of pitcher or not, the Yankees owe it to themselves to have him in next year's rotation to at least attempt to start getting some value out of that trade.

If he's the #4 starter, the last spot will more than likely go to David Phelps.  He's got more experience than any of the other young starters on the 40-man roster, he's had more success at the Major League level, and those 2 things have traditionally held the most weight when the final decision is made in the annual Yankee spring rotation competition.  Phelps has made 23 starts in his first 2 Major League seasons, pitching to a 4.39/4.15/4.17 slash line in 123.0 IP.  Nothing flashy, and his numbers have been much better as a reliever, but that type of production from the 5th spot in the rotation would be a welcome addition to a team that still needs all the pitching help it can get.

2014 Yankee ZiPS Projections Released

(Depth chart graphic courtesy of Eephus League.  Click to enlarge)

If you haven't already checked them out, Dan Szymborski released his 2014 ZiPS projections for the Yankees over at FanGraphs yesterday.  Projections, in any system, always have to be taken with a big grain of salt, but the ZiPS method has been the most accurate the last few years and is at least a decent way to gauge the team's current talent level.

Definitely click the link and peruse through in greater detail when you get the chance.  If you don't have that chance right now, here's what you need to know.  ZiPS isn't a fan of the current infield, projecting just 1.7 WAR from Mark Teixeira (in 356 PA), 0.4 from Derek Jeter (in 325 PA), and 0.2 from the newly acquired Brian Roberts (in 215 PA).  It does project Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann to be the 2 best players on the team in terms of WAR (no surprise there), and also expects somewhat of a bounce back from CC Sabathia and another solid season from Ivan Nova.

There's a lot to sort through there, but it basically tells us what we already know.  The Yankees still need help everywhere.

What Kind Of Production Would You Take From Jeter This Year?

(Courtesy of J. Conrad Williams Jr./Newsday)

After watching player after player go down with injuries this spring, the Yankees finally got to see a few come back from injuries yesterday when Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter played in their first ST games.  Mo struck out two in a scoreless 5th inning and Jeter went 1-2 at the plate as the leadoff DH, and both used their performances to answer the question about whether they'll be ready in time for the start of the season.  For Mo, that question wasn't as big a deal.  He's been throwing bullpen sessions, going through everything he would in a normal spring, just not in an actual game setting.  For Jeter, the question has hung over him all spring as he's been limited to light fielding drills, light running drills, and batting cage sessions.  He still has to play a few games in the field, which sounds like it might happen this coming week, but if Jeter can at least hit three weeks before the start of the season, that's a pretty good sign that he'll be ready.

So now that Jeter has answered the first big question, we can move to asking the second one.  What kind of production can we reasonably expect from The Captain this year?  The offense has already taken a lot of damage in the past four months and change, and a 39-year-old shorstop coming off major ankle surgery isn't going to be the savior, but without any reliable backup options in sight the Yankees need something good from Jeter this year.

Latest ZiPS Projections Not Kind To The Yankee Offense

Not to belabor the point, but the Yankee offense has taken a beating these last 4+ months.  Through players lost, lesser players added, players getting injured, and players recovering from injuries, the starting lineup on Opening Day could look drastically different than in recent years and drastically weaker as well.  Dan Szymborski of ESPN, master of the ZiPS projection system, attempted to project just how much weaker the lineup could be after the Curtis Granderson injury by running the latest projected lineup through a simulator.

It's an Insider Only piece, but there are only a few key things you need to know to get the point of this exercise.  One is that Szymborski left Derek Jeter out of this lineup projection, not an entirely unfair move with Jeter's Opening Day status still in the air.  The other is that the projected lineup looked like this: 1) Gardner, 2) Ichiro, 3) Cano, 4) Teix, 5) Youkilis, 6) Hafner, 7) Rivera, 8) Stewart, 9) Nunez.  You don't have to be a sabermetric genius to figure out that that lineup ain't much.  But just how bad does it project to be?  I'm glad you asked.

Updated 2013 ZiPS Projections Are Out

(Is a 5th straight year of decline in the cards?  Courtesy of Ron Antonelli/NY Daily News)

When I looked at the early projections for Andy Pettitte last week, I commented on the lack of updated projection data available at the time.  Pettitte wasn't included in the initial round of preliminary ZiPS or Bill James projections because he wasn't a 100% guarantee to come back and play in 2013, as was the case with a few other Yankees who didn't make the initial cut.  Yesterday, those omissions were rectified with the release of Dan Szymborski's updated 2013 ZiPS projections.  This new batch captured not only Pettitte, but some of the other new Yankees who weren't included in the preliminary round and also had Major League projections for some of the top Yankee prospects.

The prospect projections aren't all that important for this season, unless a series of huge freak injuries forces someone like Tyler Austin or Gary Sanchez into Major League duty, but they're a good early barometer for setting expectations for the 2013 season.  The full statistical breakdown can be found in the link above, and my take on specific players and projections can be found after the jump.

Projecting Andy Pettitte

(What can Andy-Wan do in 2013?)

Andy Pettitte's decision to come back for the 2013 season wasn't nearly as dramatic or surprising as his return last season.  He already sounded like he was leaning towards coming back when he said he was going to take some time to think it over, and the Yankees re-signed him to another 1-year deal with little trouble in late November.  Now that it's officially been determined that he won't be participating in the World Baseball Classic, we can start to look forward to what Andy's going to do on the mound for the Yanks in 2013 and for how long he's going to do it.  Pettitte is an important part of the Yankee rotation as the middle link between the rock solid 1-2 starters and the iffy back end, but his age and related injury concerns make him a bit more of a question mark than your average #3 starter.

Along with it being prospect season and still the late part of hot stove season, it's also projection season.  There isn't a whole lot out there on Andy yet, but it's still worth taking a peek to see what kind of production Andy is projected to put up this coming season.