Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Y U Kno Want Swish?

(How could you not want this guy back next year?)

Did I miss something?  Has Nick Swisher not been amongst the top 10 all-around OF in the American League since the Yankees acquired him (at least)?  Does he not produce above-average output defensively in right field?  Does he not put up above-average (sometimes All Star-worthy) numbers up at the plate as a switch hitter?  Does he have a team-friendly $10.25 million team option for 2012?

Then why the hell is everybody talking about Swish like he's not coming back?  What the F?  Mike A. at RAB started this shit last week and the proceeded to fuel the Yankee fan fire of stupidity with this on Monday.  Of course, those 2 posts all but forced his colleague Joe Paw to join the fray today, and even my man Larry K. at TYA is getting in on the action.

Guys, please.  Stop this.  Swish isn't going anywhere.   You know it, I know it, and even if the American people and other Yankee fans don't know it, please don't potentially pour gas on a fan fire of stupidity that hasn't been and doesn't need to be lit.

Did he suck balls in the playoffs this year?  Sure.  But that doesn't mean the Yankees shouldn't pick up Swish for 2012 and it sure as shit doesn't mean that they are considering not picking him up.   I know the season is over, and there's only so many "2011 season recap" posts we can all write, but don't stoop to catering to the dumb Yankee fan demographic for the sake of posting something.  You're above that.

The Jesus Resting On The 7th Day?

Saw this on LoHud this morning and was a little confused:

"The Yankees have decided not to have Jesus Montero play winter ball this offseason. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, Montero played in 127 games this season, and he caught most of them.

General manager Brian Cashman said the Yankees will have Montero maintain his strength and conditioning, but they don’t want him to continue playing in games.

Just to answer some of the emails I’ve gotten recently: Cashman immediately dismissed the notion of moving Montero to right field. That’s just not going to happen."

Maybe I'm just missing something here, but I'm not following the logic of this decision.  So the kid caught 127 games this year, so what?  Last time I checked, Montero was only 21 years old and completely healthy.  He's the most prized prospect in the organization and his legitimacy as a full-time catching option is still up for debate.  He's going to be expected to fill a much bigger role on the team in 2012 and the Yankees need to decide if he can really handle being a catcher at the Major League level.  The only way to do that is to continue to have him catch and work on his skills in game situations, which he can't do if he's just off somewhere maintaining his strength and conditioning.

No one doubts Montero's skills at the dish, that's a given.  But his catching has always been the major question mark surrounding him and now the Yankees are making the decision to have him not work on it during the offseason.  That just doesn't add up to me.  They say he's not moving to the outfield, he can't move to first base, and he's going to have to give up DH ABs to all the older players that are going to need days there next season.  On those days, ideally Montero should be behind the plate to keep his bat in the lineup and give Russell Martin some rest, and the Yankees should be doing everything to get Montero reps behind the plate to see if he can handle that responsibility.  He should be catching in the fall league, winter league, and as soon as he reports to Tampa for Spring Training in 2012.

The Yankees have already stumbled over defining roles for top prospects like Joba and Phil Hughes.  I'd hate to see them go down the same path with Montero.

Monday, October 17, 2011

More Fraud Sawx Meltdown News? Why Not


Awesome flowchart for determining where to point the finger for the Fraud Sawx collapse.  I got a good laugh from this when I saw it on TYA this morning.

And if you're looking for more Sawxenfreude-related reading, here's Jon Lester basically admitting that he was unprofessional and the team gave up on Francona this year.  I'll give the guy credit for being the first to man up and take responsibility for sucking in September, but to admit that you knowingly took advantage of your manager?  Ouch.

Prioritizing The Offseason To-Do List

(Not exactly what the Yankee list will look like)

2011 is finally put to bed after my incredible series of Season Review posts last week, which means now it's time to really, really, REALLY look towards 2012.  And in looking towards 2012, you can see that there's a lot that needs to be done before the Yankees report to Tampa for Spring Training.  This is nothing new for the Yankees, but I wouldn't mind seeing things done in a particular order this year.  Here's the order in which I'd like to see those things get done to maximize the Yankees' offseason efficiency:

1) Get Cash's New Deal Done

Whether you like all of his moves or not, and whether you like the way he handles things in the media nowadays, there's no denying that Cash has done a damn good job of rebuilding this team at all levels since being given "full autonomy" a few years back while still keeping them at the top of the competitive heap.  2011 was no exception, and if you just compare the handful of moves that Cash made (Garcia, Colon, Jones, Chavez) to the one move he didn't support but ownership approved (Soriano), it's clear that he's the right guy for the job moving forward.  He knows the team, he knows the players, he knows how to find value, and he's been around long enough to be able to handle all the extra BS that comes with holding a high-profile position in NY.  Unless people want to see Randy Levine making more decisions, they should be praying to whatever God they believe in every night before bed that Cash gets a new deal and gets it soon. 

2) Re-sign CC

There has already been plenty of talk around the Yankosphere about the CC situation, and most everybody agrees that CC is a MUST re-sign for the Yanks if he chooses to opt out.  I don't see anybody offering the money or the years that the Yankees can, despite talks of Texas being a big player, but I wouldn't throw the whole world at him right off the bat.  Go 5 years/$130 mil and put the ball in CC's court to have him back up all his "I love NYC" talk and see where it goes from there.  In the end, though, the Yankees almost have to beat any other offer that comes for the big guy, because he's far better than anything available this offseason and probably in the 2012 offseason as well.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

AB4AR 2011 Season Review: The Predictions

I'll have a little fun at my own expense today, taking a look back at the 10 fearless predictions I made before the start of the 2011 season.  I know there are a couple right off the bat that I wasn't even close on.  Let's see how I did.

1) Derek Jeter will rebound enough at the plate this year for Joe to keep him as the leadoff hitter against lefties. But not enough that Joe won't scrap his plan to use Gardner against righties as Gardner will flourish in the role.

This was the case earlier in the year, but Jeter's resurgence after his DL stint kept him at the top pretty much year round.  Gardner did play well when he was in the 1-spot, though, so I'm going to be generous and give myself 1/2 a point here.

2) Phil Hughes will essentially bypass A.J. as the #2 starter with a better approach and more improved secondary stuff this year, earning himself a 2nd straight ASG nod in the process.

Oh no.  No, no, no.  Not even close on this one.

3) Russell Martin will stay healthy and productive enough to hold down the starting catcher spot for the entire season.

BOOM!!  There's one right on the nose.  Point for me.

4) Jesus Montero will start heating up with the bat in late May-early June and be called up to replace Francisco Cervelli. In one week in August he will play for 4 consecutive games, both behind the plate and as the DH, and will have 6 XBH (3 of them homers) and drive in 7 over that 4-game span, serving notice to everybody that he IS the real deal.

The timing was a little off, even though the Yankees probably should have called him up in the summer, and the numbers weren't quite the same.  But The Jesus certainly served notice during his Sept. 3-5 run, which he capped off by hitting 2 HR and driving in 3 against the Orioles.  I'm taking 1/2 a point for this one too.

5) Joba won't quite get back to being 2007 Joba in the 'pen, but he will be better than the 2009 and 2010 versions. He and D-Rob both will earn some more high-leverage innings when Soriano starts to hiccup midseason.

The only part I really got right here was the better than previous years part.  But Joba wasn't around long enough to take innings from Soriano before he was shelved with TJS.

6) 3 Yankees will win Gold Gloves this year: Cano, Teixeira, and Brett Gardner (thanks to an injury to Carl Crawford).

Haven't announced this one yet, but I feel pretty confident.  If Gardner doesn't get a Gold Glove this year, the award should be scrapped forever.

7) At some point in June or July, the Yankees will hit a rough patch and we will see at least one ridiculous story saying they should trade Betances, Romine, and Mason Williams for somebody like Fausto Carmona, and another one saying they should call up Banuelos. They will do neither. And Andy Pettitte will not be coming back. Ever. He's done.

There were never any calls for crazy trades, at least as far as I know out here.  I can't speak for what kind of stupid shit was being said on WFAN.  And while Banuelos was always mentioned, never as a serious rotation option.  Even the Andy rumors never started to percolate, probably because there was never a real bad stretch through the summer.  No points earned here.

8) We will see Andrew Brackman in a Yankee uniform this season. And also Hector Noesi and David Phelps at some point. We won't see Banuelos or Betances in one, though.

Swap Betances for Phelps here and I knocked it out of the park.  Instead it's just another 1/2 point.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 5 of these guys on the hill in the Bronx at some point in 2012.

9) Both Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira will finish in the top 5 of the MVP voting, Cano coming in 2nd and Teix 5th. A-Rod, despite having a good year, will only finish 9th after making a mid-summer DL stint.

Cano might finish 2nd after a strong finish and postseason, but mentioning Teix or A-Rod in the MVP discussion for 2011 you would get laughed out of the room.  0 points.

10) The Yankees, behind their monster bullpen and CC and Phil at the top of the rotation, will win the 2011 World Series in 6 games over the Colorado Rockies, sending Jorge Posada (but not Mo) off into retirement on top.

Guh.  Blew that one too, and that one hurts most of all.   Just 2.5 correct predictions for me in 2011, with the chance to bump that up to at least 3.  So just in case you were still under the assumption that you could come to AB4AR and count on me for 100% on point insight, let this be your final lesson.  All I can do is get back in the cage and try to straighten things out for 2012.

Friday, October 14, 2011

AB4AR 2011 Season Review: The Bench

(Best bench player ever?  Probably.  Courtesy of The Daily News)

As I stated in the bench season preview post, the 2011 version was expected to be better than those of '09 and 2010.  The Yankees added some experience in Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez and seemed committed to giving Eduardo Nunez a real shot to prove his worth as a potential everyday player.  They were covered at all spots on the roster and had the flexibility to platoon against left-handed pitching without sacrificing productivity.  For guys who are only expected to fill in as needed, the bench in 2011 lived up to that job and then some.

Nunez was expected to back up the left side of the infield this year, and thanks to injuries he actually ended up playing more than the Yankees originally intended.  As far as auditions for a future role go, Nunez achieved mixed results in 2011.  In 338 PA he showed a little oomph with the stick, hitting .265/.313/.385 with 25 XBH, good for a .313 wOBA.  Nunez also stole 22 bases, which helped make the Yankee offense a bit more dynamic when he was at the bottom of the lineup.  He certainly didn't make anybody forget about Jeter or A-Rod, but Nunez wasn't a complete black hole at the plate.  His problems are all field-related.  I can't think of any other way to say it than to just say that Nunez was a disaster defensively.  He committed 20 errors on the year, 12 fielding and 8 throwing, and by the end of the year he had Yankee fans cringing and covering their eyes every time the ball was hit his way.  The horrific fielding ended up bumping Nunez down to a -0.6 WAR, and probably locked him into a career backup role, at least with the Yankees.

Any time you can add 2 former All Stars and Gold Glove winners as backups, that's a good thing.  And that's just what the Yanks did with Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez this year.  Jones was brought in to replace Marcus Thames as the "vs. lefties" 4th OF and he did that job even better than Thames did in 2010.  For the year, Jones hit .247/.356/.495 in 222 total PA and .286/.384/.540 in 126 AB vs. LHP, good for a .371 wOBA overall.  And as an added bonus he played above average defense, something Thames can only dream of, and racked up 1.4 WAR in his limited playing time.  Chavez managed to give the Yanks 175 PA thanks to injuries, and while his .256/.320/.356 line wasn't all that productive, he played solid defense at the hot corner and helped keep things moving along while A-Rod missed his time at 3rd.  It remains to be seen if either of these guys will be back for 2012, but there's no denying that both were more valuable to the lineup this year than Ramiro Pena and Thames were last year.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Ummm, Pass

Big Sloppi to ESPN about joining the Yankees:

“That’s something I gotta think about,” Ortiz said. “I’ve been here on the Red Sox a long time, and I’ve seen how everything goes down between these two ballclubs.”

Ortiz stopped well short of saying he wanted to play for the Yankees, but did express respect for the organization.

“It’s great from what I hear,” Ortiz said of the Yankees. “It’s a good situation to be involved in. Who doesn’t want to be involved in a great situation where everything goes the right way?"

Yeah, thanks Dave.  Appreciate the love.  But no amount of Yankee dick sucking you could do is going to get you into pinstripes.  Part of the reason the situation is good here is because you're not here.  So sorry about the sinking ship up north and all, but don't think for one second that this lifeboat has any room in it for your fat fucking ass.  The only time I ever want to read "David Ortiz" and "the Yankees" in the same sentence is when that sentence is describing somebody from the Yankees drilling David Ortiz right in the ribs.

AB4AR 2011 Season Review: The Bullpen

(I'd be excited too if I was that badass.  Courtesy of The Star-Ledger)

The 2011 'pen was expected to be the team's biggest strength back when I previewed it in March.  It had incredible depth, incredible power, incredible experience, incredible flexibility, and it had Mariano Rivera.  Dave Robertson opened the season as the 6th-inning guy for crying out loud.  The thought was that the deep bullpen could help ease the burden of what was considered a patch-work rotation and that Joe would be able to rotate his top 4 guys (Mo, Soriano, D-Rob, Joba) around to use them in high-leverage situations as needed and still keep everybody fresh.

Well things didn't exactly work out as planned for the bullpen thanks to injuries, but it was still a very good year for the Yankee relief core.  Anchored by Mo and D-Rob, the Yankee bullpen was easlily one of the 5 best in baseball in 2011.  In 479 combined innings of work, the 'pen put up a 3.12 ERA (4th in baseball, 1st in the AL), a 3.65 FIP (9th MLB, 3rd AL), and 7.0 WAR (2nd).  Their success was due to a combination of killer stuff, evidenced by their 6th-ranked 8.65 K/9 (2nd in the AL) and their ability to shut down situations with runners on base (MLB-leading 78.8% LOB%).  So the Yankee relievers excelled at doing what they're paid to do, but it wasn't all done by the same crew that started the season.

Can Cash Capitalize On Theo's New Deal?

The thought just popped into my head this morning.  If you were Cash, why wouldn't you use Epstein's Cubs' deal as leverage in your negotiations with the Yankees?  Think about it.

Epstein is coming off 2 straight years of no playoffs and is one of the primary architects of the team that suffered the biggest September collapse in baseball history (still love saying that), and yet he turned that into a 5-year deal worth at least $15 mil.  Cash is coming off a WS title in '09, playoffs the last 3 years, division title this year, and he hasn't gotten nearly the credit he should have for this season's success after making the deals for Garcia, Colon, Jones, Chavez, Cory Wade etc.  If Epstein is worth $3+ mil a year for what he's done, what is Cash worth?

The talks and reports on Cash's negotiations are still in the early stages but I think the recent Epstein dealings could change Cash's approach a little, especially considering his last deal was 3 years/$6mil.  I certainly wouldn't blame the guy if he wanted the Yankees to at least match what Epstein got.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Fraud Sawx Collapse Gets Deeper

(Losing.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

I know it seems like I'm just hanging onto anything I can to cope with the fact that the Yankees' season is over, but honestly, how can you not be intrigued by all the shit surrounding the Bahhston Self Massacre??  It's hilarious and it's everywhere.  The coverage of the collapse rivals the coverage of the 2004 World Series victory.  It's insane.  Today, a huge story was published in the Globe with even more inside information on this clusterfuck of all clusterfucks.  Read the whole story when you get a chance because it's fascinating to see how disconnected everybody in the organization was from each other.  But if you don't have the time right now, here are the highlights:

- Terry Francona maybe was/maybe wasn't distracted this year by problems with his failing marriage and painkiller usage, which contributed to him losing control and influence over his players.

- There were thoughts amongst ownership that the players were tanking in September because they were bitter about a Saturday doubleheader scheduled to try to work around Hurricane Irene.

- As an attempt to end the perceived bitterness, ownership bought every player a pair of $300 headphones and invited them to a players-only party on John Henry's yacht on September 11.

- Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Jon Lester spent the majority of the season re-enacting the majority of my college career by drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing videogames in the clubhouse during games.

- Ownership didn't support the Carl Crawford signing, and stated that they had no idea about how bad things had gotten in the clubhouse.

And to top it all off, Theo Epstein has reportedly agreed to a deal to become the new GM of the Cubs for 5 years and $20 million, which is more than he made last year as the Sawx' GM.  The guy is being rewarded for being the prime architect of this disaster and then jumping ship when it all came crashing down around him.  You just can't make this stuff up.

P.S.- Imagine how wacky shit would have been in NY if stuff like this was happening to the Yankees?  It'd be like "The Bronx Zoo" 2.0.

AB4AR 2011 Season Review: The Rotation

 (Used courtesy of TYA.  Sorry, no Bartolo)

The rotation preview post was done in 2 parts back in March: the "known" spots in the rotation and then the unknowns.  Looking back on it, it's almost funny to think that I considered A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes part of the known group going in, as they were expected to be the #2 and #3 starters well the back end would be pieced together through a combination of Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and whatever group of Triple-A arms had to step up when Garcia and Colon got cut.  Obviously, things didn't work out that way, but surprisingly, that not working out turned out to be a good thing for the Yankees, as they got way more production from their unknowns than anybody could have anticipated, turning the team's biggest weakness at the start of the season into one of their season-long strengths.

For the year, the Yankee rotation was above average.  Nothing eye-popping, but certainly better than one would expect when the team got 51 combined starts from Garcia and Colon, only 14 from Phil Hughes (and an ineffective 14 at that), and 2 from somebody named Brien Gordon.  Their starters combined for a 4.03 ERA (14th in MLB) and a 3.97 FIP (16th) in 979.1 IP (14th).  They averaged 7.09 K/9 (10th), 2.88 B/9 (16th), and accumulated 16.7 WAR as a staff, good for 6th in baseball.  That WAR stat in particular stands out as the biggest sign of the Yankees' rotational success in 2011.  Their other peripheral numbers don't stand out amongst the competition, but they knew how to get outs when they needed them and generally always gave their team a chance to win the game.  And with an offense like the Yankees', that's not a bad strategy to go with.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

AB4AR 2011 Season Review: The Lineup


I'll be doing the season review posts in the same format as the season previews.  If you missed the lineup preview, or want an opportunity to refresh yourself on my takes and laugh at some of the stupid shit I said back in March, the 2011 Lineup Preview can be found here.

Heading into the season, the lineup was one of the few things we could all be confident in, and with good reason.  There were All Stars, MVPs, and Gold Glove/Silver Slugger Award winners littered throughout the 1-9 spots and there was no reason to think that the Yankee lineup wouldn't be one of the best, if not the best, in baseball.  And to everyone's credit, the Yankees as a team were arguably the best all-around lineup in baseball in 2011.  They finished near the top of heap in traditional stats (1st in HR, 2nd in R, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in OBP, 4th in SB) as well as in the newer sabermetric categories that paint a more accurate picture of offensive strength (3rd in wOBA, 2nd in wRC+, 1st in BB%).  They had power, patience, and speed, not a bad combination if you're looking to score runs in the American League.  And as a compliment to that, the Yankees managed to play solid defense, finishing with the 7th-best team Fld % in baseball.

Surprisingly, though, the Yankees managed to stay at the top of baseball in a year where they experienced down years from some of their biggest offensive contributors.  Here's what I had to say in my preview post about Teix... :

"I believe the opportunity is there for him to have a big year and re-establish himself as the best first baseman in MLB not named Pujols."

... and A-Rod: 

"A-Rod has never looked better in Spring Training than he has this year, physically or at the plate, but it remains to be seen if he can translate the offseason workout regimen to a full healthy season of A-rodian production."

2011 Post Mortem Linkapalooza

The end of the season is bringing out some good stuff from the best in the biz.  Let's take a hot lap around the Yankosphere.

- It's never too early to start heating the stove up, and Jon Heyman does just that with this tweet making the Yanks out to be the early favorites for C.J. Wilson.  I'll withhold my comments on Wilson for now.

- This was from Sunday's NY Post, but it's Joel Sherman stating what he thinks the Yankees' offseason needs are.  I can get on board with the "more lefties" theory, but Beltran for 3 years at 40-something mil instead of Swish for 1 at 10 and change?  No thanks.

- William at The Captain's Blog with a little dose of reality/perspective  for the crowd still booing A-Rod for making the last out of the ALDS.  Newsflash, it's happened before, people.

- Vizzini at NoMaas takes a similar stance in response to the Sherman piece, reminding everyone that immediately wanting to change up the roster is stupid.  Check out the entire series of "ALDS Thoughts" at NoMaas.  Always good stuff coming from those guys.

- I'm just going to link straight to the LoHud homepage so you can peruse through their "Moving Forward" series on your own.  Expect to see the earliest hot stove news coming from there soon.

- Brien at IIATMS seems to agree with me that Joe was horrible in the ALDS.  Well, at least that makes 2 of us who think so.

- Buster Olney at The Worldwide Leader had some early details on the contract talks between the team and Cash, and early indications are that things are moving ahead nicely.

- Lord Duggan at Pinstripe Alley uses the CC situation to point out the flaws in inking big FA pitching contracts.  There's something all Yankee fans should be familiar with.

- Steve S. at TYA breaks down the whole Swish situation, painting a pretty convincing picture for why he needs to be the RF in 2012.

- Speaking out painting pictures, Joe Paw at RAB does just that in this piece about what the Yankees should/shouldn't do with Jesus Montero.  There really isn't anything more to say about that story after reading Joe's post.  If it ain't for King Felix, then there's no reason to even think about trading The Jesus.

Jonathan Papelbon Still Taking The Collapse Hard

(Courtesy of TMZ.  Obviously)

That's what I want from one of my clubhouse leaders right there.  Showing his teammates that there's a time to sulk and feel bad about suffering the worst September collapse in baseball history, and when that time is over you have to pick yourself up, put yourself back together, and get back to training to get ready to come back stronger and better in 2012.  Put the collapse behind you and use it as motivation to better yourself as a player moving forward.

I know he blew the game for them the last time they even made the postseason, and I know he blew the game that ended up costing them a playoff berth this year, but that's the kind of guy I want in the foxhole next to me right there.  Total dedication.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Final Bit Of Perspective On The 2011 Season

This wasn't supposed to be Yankees' season.  After missing out on Cliff Lee and watching the Fraud Sawx beef up their lineup with Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Yankees were pretty much written off for 2011 as a team who would battle for the Wild Card and be an afterthought in the postseason, if they even made it, because of the weak pitching staff.  It was all aboard on the Philly and Bahhston bandwagons and about as much as a team with a $200 million payroll can, the Yankees were an afterthought as the offseason wore on.

Cash rebounded from the Lee miss and filled the gaps on the roster with cheap, veteran alternatives.  Freddy Garcia was brought in on a Minor League deal to compete for a rotation spot.  Bartolo Colon was pulled out of Witness Protection in the Dominican Winter League and also offered a non-guaranteed deal to try to make the team.  Russell Martin was signed on the cheap to be the bridge to Jesus as catcher.  Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez were added on 1-year deals to fortify the bench.  And Rafael Soriano, for better or worse, was handed a big contract to beef up the bullpen.  All of these moves went largely unnoticed and were largely underappreciated, especially by people like me, and the Yankees headed into the 2011 season as a $200 million underdog.

Fast forward to today.  Yes, the season is over and there will be no more Yankee baseball in 2011, but if you look at it objectively, it's not unfair to say that the Yankees had a better season than almost everybody expected and had a better season than those of the Fraud Sawx or Phillies.  Philly suffered the same fate as the Yanks, losing their ALDS series in 5 games, but did it as a much bigger favorite than the Yankees were, and the Fraud Sawx failed to even make the postseason after suffering the worst September collapse in baseball history (still fun to say that).  The Yankees used their collection of cheap signings, returning players, and strong farm system to turn themselves into the team with the best record in the American League, and did it in a year where they had just as many obstacles to overcome as everybody else.

They experienced down years from Teix and A-Rod, the #3 and #4 hitters in the lineup, thanks to a combination of injuries and pull happiness.  They watched Phil Hughes, expected to be their #2 starter this year, deteriorate and spend the bulk of the season on the DL with shoulder problems.  They watched Jorge Posada continue to devolve into a platoon player as he transitioned to DH.  They lost Joba for the season.  They lost Soriano for a big chunk of time.  They had Derek Jeter struggle early and then hit the DL in the summer.  They watched a repeat performance of Bad A.J. chew up another 190 innings in the rotation.

But they also saw Curtis Granderson have a career year, MVP-caliber even, from the 2-hole in the lineup.  They saw Robbie Cano quietly repeat his monster production from 2010.  They had CC continue to be the big-time ace that they paid for a few years ago, leading the AL in pitching WAR and putting in another Cy Young-caliber performance.  They had Jeter come back like a man possessed from his injury and hit over .330 for the rest of the year.  They had Mo still being Mo as the closer, and D-Rob taking a huge leap to the top of the relief pitcher mountain.  They got an all-around solid rebuild year from Russell Martin behind the plate, likely to lead to him being the starting catcher for the near future.  They got a combined 311 innings of 5.1-WAR pitching from Garcia and Colon, 2 guys who weren't expected to do much of anything.  They got solid production from young guys like Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, Eduardo Nunez, and Jesus Montero, painting a brighter picture of the future moving forward.

It didn't end in a World Series victory, something that is always the measuring stick for the Yankees each season.  But in a year like this, where even the most diehard fans and smartest analytical baseball minds amongst us were resigned to the fact that this team more than like WOULDN'T reach the World Series before the season even began, I think there's nothing wrong with that.  This team exceeded most of our expectations, and they did it with contributions from players who weren't expected to do much and without contributions from some of the most important players on the team.  Making the playoffs in baseball is damn hard to do, let's not lose sight of that.  And in a year where plenty of people didn't even have confidence that the Yankees would do that, you have to look at the final result and call it a success.

Everybody deserves credit for what this team accomplished this season, and we as fans should appreciate the job that this crew did.  It sucks that they didn't make it all the way, but the results of this year should serve as a reminder that the Yankees are still one of the best teams in the business and will continue to be one of the best moving forward.  If anything, the outcome of the 2011 season has me even more confident and excited about the prospects for 2012.

Coming Up At AB4AR

I don't know about everybody else, but I'm still not quite over the ALDS loss.  But the time has come to move on and look forward, and so we'll start doing that this week at AB4AR by doing what you always do when you want to move forward, looking back.  Over the next week I'll go back and take a look at all my Season Preview posts from March and use them as the baseline for the 2011 AB4AR Season Review posts.  From there, I'll start looking at the big offseason storylines, comment on potential free agent or trade targets, and eventually roll out the inaugural AB4AR Top Prospects list some time later in the fall.

Just because baseball is over for the Yankees this year doesn't mean shit slows down at AB4AR.  This offseason will give us plenty to talk about and I hope everybody out there continues to turn to AB4AR for our brand of Yankee analysis.  I appreciate all the comments and feedback I'm getting on the site and on our official Facebook page.  Keep the commentary coming and spread the word to your friends to find the page, "Like" it, and then follow the site here every day.  The more people I have reading and commenting, the more motivation I have to churn more shit out for you to read, and it's that feedback I get from the readers that makes doing this all worth it, so thank you to all the readers and commenters out there who follow.

And with that, let's now move into the offseason...

Sunday, October 9, 2011

ALDS Game 1 In Pictures

Friend of the blog (and close personal friend of mine) Gary Corbett was lucky enough to get tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS.  He was also unlucky enough to get stuck in the rain on that Friday night and miss out on seeing CC-Verlander I.  But he was lucky enough that he got to back the following night and see the eventual Yankee win.  I asked Gary to document the experience with his camera and asked if he would be willing to share them on the blog and he was happy to oblige.  Below, check out some shots of Game 1, both nights of it, from someone who was there.


There they are.  Section 234.  It's a beautiful thing, isn't it?


Player introductions.  This was about 15 minutes after I got off a plane and started the trek home from LaGuardia on Friday night.

Click "Read More" below to see the rest.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

How Bad A Job Did Girardi Really Do In The ALDS?

I ask because it seems that from the start of the ALDS through the final game, I seem to be one of the only people who thinks Girardi did an awful job.  There really isn't that much criticism out there for how he managed this series and I just think that's wrong when you look at all the bad calls he made and how some of them affected the game.  Here's the list of bad decisions, as I saw them:

- Brought Luis Ayala into the game in the 9th to finish.  Ayala gave up enough runs to force Mo to have to come in.

- Even had Mo warming up to begin with in Game 1 with a 9-run lead.  Use Hughes, Wade, anybody.

- Left Freddy Garcia in for way too long in the 6th inning of Game 2, allowing 2 more runs to score.

- Brought in Luis Ayala AGAIN in the 9th inning of Game 2 with a 3-run deficit.  Ayala gave up the insurance run and Girardi essentially gave up on the game.

- Didn't pinch run Dickerson for Posada in 9th inning of Game 2.

- Let CC come back out for the 6th inning of Game 3.  CC gave up the insurance run.

- Putting the bunt on with 2 on, 0 out, and Jeter at the plate in the 5th inning of Game 4 (** Never confirmed that it was Joe's call, but would you be surprised if it wasn't, given Joe's track record? **)

- Not using D-Rob a/o Mo in the late innings of Game 4.

- Bringing CC into the game in the 5th inning of Game 5.  CC gave up the insurance run.

I don't know, that just seems like a lot of fuck-ups to me, especially when 4 of the decisions directly led to the eventual winning runs being scored by the Tigers in the 3 games the Yankees lost.  How can nobody else see this?  And how can more people not be calling Girardi out for this?  He was terrible.  Awful.

It was a team loss in the series, because the players screwed up just as much in their execution, but if you're doling out pieces of blame pie for everybody at the pity party, Joe Girardi should be getting a much bigger piece.

Friday, October 7, 2011

2011 ALDS Review: The Things That Were Supposed To Decide The Series


So how'd I do with my series preview/prediction?  Pretty shitty actually. 

1) Speed/Athleticism

You can say that the Yankees held the advantage in this department in the series, but it really didn't translate into anything.  Curtis' amazing catches in Game 4 were part of it, but other than that there wasn't much.  An extra base here and there and maybe Russell Martin's slide into home, but the Yankees never got the running game going on the basepaths, and the Tigers never really did anything in the field or running the bases to exploit themselves.  They played errorless baseball and didn't run themselves out of anything.  So while the Yankees probably made more athletic plays, it ended up being a wash in terms of predicting outcome. 

2) Miguel Cabrera

I was all prepared to point out how Detroit won the one game that Cabrera did anything in and got their dicks smashed in 3 out of the other 4 when he did nothing, thereby proving that he was the key and cementing my status as a baseball genius, but then the whole "Yankees can't a get hit when they need it" thing happened last night and well, yeah.

But the Yankees did do a good job of limiting Cabrera in the series.  The only game he had a hit in was Game 2.  For the rest of the series he was a combined 0-11 with 4Ks and 0 RBI.  They walked him when they had to, and pitched to him effectively to get him outs when the situation allowed them to.  Cabrera almost single-handedly won Game 2 for the Tigers, but was useless in the rest of the games.  Once again, the Yankees did something that was a key in helping them win but still didn't get the positive result. 

3) The Holy Bullpen Trinities

AGAIN things should stack up in the Yankees' favor here when you look at the numbers: 

DET Big 3: 7 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 6 ER, 9 K
NYY Big 3: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 7 K

It doesn't get much more one-sided than that, folks.  The Yankees beat down every single one of the Albuquerque-Benoit-Valverde troika at one point or another, mostly Albuquerque.  And they looked like they were fixing to do it to Benoit again last night.  On the other side, save for the one bad pitch that Soriano made to Delmon Young in Game 3, the Yankees' big bullpen arms shut the Tigers down.  Unfortunately, D-Rob and Mo only combined for 3.1 of the total innings, so the advantage in performance couldn't be played into victory.

Essentially, my predictions were right on the money in that the Yankees dominated the 3 keys I identified, and completely off in that none of it ended up meaning a goddamn thing.  That was the most frustrating thing about this series.  Everything points to the Yankees being the winners, and they still managed to lose.  Just mind-bottling.

ALDS Game 5 Thoughts & Afterthoughts

(The end.  Courtesy of The AP)

Having to write this with a defeat hangover is infinitely worse than with a victory hangover.

- TBS opened their pregame 7-minute time waster with John Smoltz saying the Yankee bullpen was "equally better" than Detroit's.  As little sense as that makes, it actually makes perfect sense.

- As shocking as the back-to-back HRs allowed by Nova in the 1st was, I really didn't think much of it.  He hung 2 bad offspeed pitches (Kelly's HR was actually more about Kelly putting a good swing on it), but didn't lose his rhythm or command.  The only frustrating part was it being Don Kelly who did the damage.  That guy got voted to the "Jeff Mathis Memorial Shitty Players Who Inexplicably Own The Yankees" Hall of Fame last night.

- While I wasn't throwing in the towel at 2-0, I'd be lying if I said Nova was on.  Even the slider that he struck Cabrera out with was way up in the zone.

- Darling got on his knees early for the Tigers, praising them for being "loose" enough to hit the 2 1st-inning HRs.  It was only the 2nd inning and for the first time in the series the TBS guys were pissing me off.  Bad sign.

- I thought Nova looked better getting out of trouble in the 2nd inning after a leadoff double by Ordonez.  His offspeed stuff was starting to sit a little lower in the zone and he found his command out of the stretch.  It looked like it was going to be another solid outing for him.

- Shockingly, though, Joe quick-hooked Nova after 2 and we were all left to sit and say "what the fuck?!?!"  I'll talk about the arm tightness later.  At the time, I thought Joe was just getting antsy and trying to shorten the game up, which I thought was unfair to Nova, who should have earned a longer leash with the way he'd pitched the last couple months, but it also wasn't a horrible decision considering how well rested his hosses in the bullpen were.

- I counted no less than 6 times that Doug Fister got a generous strike call on the corner in the first 2 innings, and at least 3 times that Yankee hitters had something to say to Tom Barrett about it.  Barrett was consistently wide for Fister all night (gross) and that was a contributing factor to his early success.

- That being said, Fister did pitch very well through the first 3 innings.  He was getting ahead in the count, mixing his pitches well, and working both sides of the plate, something he failed to do well in Game 1.  Getting Cano to end the 3rd inning with a couple runners on was a big out, especially after getting down 2-0 to start the at-bat.

- I wouldn't quite call it "quiet," but Brett Gardner's excellence at the plate flew a bit below the radar in this series.  He seemed to get all his hits in timely situations and seemed to get all of them with either 2 strikes on him or 2 outs in the inning.  He didn't try to do too much with anything thrown to him and didn't swing too hard like he tends to do in tight situations.  The #9 hitter being the best one on the team, who woulda thunk it?

- After watching him keep his short leash on Phil Hughes (who was awesome) to go to Logan in the 4th, I thought I knew what Joe was doing.  He was playing the matchups and working the game in reverse to use his best bullpen guys for 5 innings.  Soriano 5, D-Rob 6-7, and Mo 8-9.  I thought it actually made perfect sense and I felt better about him yanking Nova early.

- Unfortunately, Joe had to screw that plan up and bring in CC for the 5th.  Why, why, WHY???  CC being available was the right call, but he should have been saved for emergency situations or extra innings.  Assuming you're going to come back and score some runs, if you're Joe you should stick with your regular bullpen guys.  They're used to coming out in those situations and more rested than CC and you'd also like to have CC lined up to pitch Game 1 of the ALCS.  But whatever, Joe mangled everything else in this series, why should that have been any different?

- Smart baserunning play by A-Rod in the 4th to pick up Rob Thompson at 3rd (he would have been out by a mile), great at-bat by Jorge to get a hit to load the bases after falling behind Fister 0-2, and an absolute horseshit at-bat by Russell Martin, failing to get a run in on his 1-1 pop up.

- Strikeouts aside, I didn't think CC was fooling anybody with his stuff last night.  A lot of fastballs were fouled straight back and the Tiger hitters seemed to know what pitch he was going to throw in certain situations.  The 3rd run he allowed off the bat of Victor Martinez turned out to be a huge run, and it could have been avoided if Joe kept him in the 'pen and stuck with his bullpen guys.

- Celeb sightings on TV- Jay-Z and Spike Lee, both being caught clapping and yelling maniacally after big outs.  Good to see that those guys are just like us regular fans.  Except for the hundreds of millions of dollars, dozens of different business ventures, legendary rap career, Grammy Award-winning wife, and undeniable swag, there's really no difference between Jay-Z and myself.

- Cano was all over that pitch that Fister hung in the 5th to get the Yankees on the board.  It looked like a cutter that drifted back out over the heart of the dish instead of cutting in and Cano wrecked it into the rightfield seats.  The guy should never hit anywhere but 3rd in the order for the rest of his life.

- TBS tried to justify Barrett's shitty strike zone for the third time in the top of the 6th, talking about approximations and camera angles and where the pitch crosses the plate.  Fuck you, guys.  The strike zone was bullshittingly wide for Tiger pitching, tight for the Yankees on the corners, and you know it.  Take your Cabrera jerseys off and be objective!

- Biggest example of the big fella not being all there last night was the walk to Peralta in the top of the 6th.  You can't be 2-2 on the 8 hitter with 1 out and lose the guy to a walk.  In a game like that, with the bottom of the order up, you have to throw strikes and CC couldn't do it.

- Luckily, Soriano came in and got a HUGE double play off the bat of Ramon Santiago.  That moment felt like the point when the lineup would wake up and start hitting.  It just felt like it had to be.

- For the 2nd time in the series, I sat on my couch and wondered if Joe should have pinch ran Dickerson for Jorge after his base hit in the bottom of the 6th.  It ended up not mattering with Martin K'ing, but at the time I thought giving Dickerson a chance to steal 2nd and score on a single was better than hoping Jorge didn't fuck anything up on the basepaths.

- I'll give some props to Soriano, he was dirty in his last 2 outings.  The home run to Young in Game 3 was still bullshit, but he came up big in the last 2 games when Joe needed him to.

- Who the fuck was the clown they got to sing "God Bless America" last night???  Dude sounded like me singing in the shower.  Where the hell was Mary Kay Messenger?  Chick practically had me in tears in Game 1.  Bad form, Yankees.  Bad form.

- Joe coming out to get the Band-Aid removed from Joaquin Benoit's face was the best bullpen-related move he made all series.

#sadbuttrue

- Darling on an A-Rod foul ball during his at-bat in the bottom of the 7th- "that's the best swing he's had all series."  OK, Ron.  Clearly you missed the 2 he had in the 8th inning of Game 4 when he ACTUALLY GOT FUCKING HITS!!!!  In a related story, the walk that Teix took was probably the best thing that could have happened in that situation, since any time he does swing the bat nothing good happens.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Brutal

Everything.  Everything about tonight was brutal.

The back-to-back home runs to open the game.  Nova leaving after 2 innings.  Joe's curious bullpen hierarchy.  The offense not coming through with 1 guy on, 2 guys on.  The offense not coming through with the bases loaded, twice.  Delmon Young being a big fat piece of shit that can't even do the most basic baseball activities without pulling a muscle and somehow still managing to own Yankee pitching.  Watching Nick Swisher hit with RISP.  Watching Russell Martin hit with RISP.

Losing.

I'm going to get blackout drunk.  We'll deal with the rest of this debacle tomorrow.

ALDS Game 5 Preview: Win Or Go Home

Pitching Matchup: Nova (1-0) vs. Fister (0-1)

Starting Lineups:

NYY- Jeter (SS), C-Grand (CF), Cano (2B), The Horse (3B), Teck-SHARE-uh (1B), Swish (RF), Jorge (DH), Martin (C), Gardner (LF)

DET- Jackson (CF), Kelly (3B), Young (LF), Cabrera (1B), Martinez (DH), Ordonez (RF), Avila (C), Peralta (SS), Santiago (2B)

3 Things to Watch For:

1) Starter Adjustments/Who Can Finish

It's the 2nd time around against the same team in less than a week for the 2 starting pitchers tonight, and you know both clubs have been reviewing video of their at-bats against them in Game 1.  It will be equally important for SuperNova and Fister to not fall into a similar routine to what they did last Saturday.  They need to change their approaches, continue to mix pitches, and not get predictable with their offerings based on count.  Whoever can do that better will have the better outing.  Building off of that theme, the pitcher who can finish off hitters and finish off innings better will also give his team a better chance to win.  Nova excelled at working out of his jams in Game 1, and generally put guys away when he had them down.  Fister's inability to do that in the 5th and 6th innings of Game 1 was his undoing.

2) The Horse At The Plate

As I touched on yesterday, The Horse finally started to look like himself at the plate in Game 4, which bodes well for his chances against a pitcher who doesn't have dynamite stuff like Fister tonight.  Word around the Yankee clubhouse this morning was that A-Rod looked good in his pregame canter around the field.  He was energetic and lively, and he even ate ALL his oats and carrots at lunch time.  He's just finishing up getting brushed right now before taking some BP.  If he looks as smooth and balanced tonight as he did in the 8th inning on Tuesday, we could be in store for some 2009 A-Rod flashbacks.

3) Reliever "Freshness"

Another point I made after Game 4 was my concern that Joe not using D-Rob and Mo in Game 4 could lead them to be a little rusty tonight.  Granted, I'll still take a rusty D-Rob or Mo over anybody else in the Yankee 'pen 25 hours a day, 8 days a week, but they are the types of pitchers who struggle specifically when they haven't pitched in a while.  D-Rob has the tendency to lose his command, and Mo tends to not locate the cutter as well.  It's obvious they are both going to be available for 6 outs apiece if needed tonight thanks to the rest, but even that could prove to be a potential pothole if they're forced to go from next to no work to 30-40 pitches.  Hopefully Nova can put up a repeat 6-inning performance from Game 1 and take this discussion off the table, but I'll be paying extra close attention to how D-Rob and Mo's stuff looks when they get in the game.

Player to Watch: Ivan Nova

Even though he technically was a reliever in Game 1, Nova turned in the best starting performance from a Yankee pitcher in this series.  He was cool, calm, confident, and he attacked the Tiger lineup with his full arsenal.  Game 1 was the biggest game of his career up to that point and he passed that test with flying colors.  How will he respond coming back in a do-or-die Game 5 setting?  I've always liked the way Nova handles himself on the mound and I expect him to be solid tonight.  If he's on early, he can help set the tone for this game and get the Yankee crowd in it.  And if he puts up a repeat performance of Game 1, he could be looking at an ALDS MVP (even though that award doesn't really exist).

I love Game 5s and I hate Game 5s.  Every pitch means a little more, every crack of the bat is a little more exciting, and every ball in play carries that extra little bit of tension.  I feel confident coming into tonight and I think the Yankees do as well.  They're back at home, where some of the deep fly balls from Comerica will end up in the stands if they put similar swings on hittable pitches tonight.  They've got a damn good pitcher on the hill, a fully stocked bullpen on standby, and a packed house of rabid fans cheering them on.  You can't ask for much more than that if you're a professional baseball player in this situation.

This isn't a song, and it's from a football movie, but a lot of the lessons still apply.  Baseball is definitely a game of inches.  And if you don't get goosebumps listening to this speech then you're not human.

Here We Go ...



Big today, boys!  Go get it done.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

That Looks Much Better

Something funny happened in the 8th inning of last night's game, funnier than Al Albuquerque's balk and even funnier than his wild pitch into the stands.  Alex Rodriguez got 2 hits in the inning, his first and second of the series.  And not only that, he looked damn good doing it.  Up until those hits, I've been banging the "A-Rod is hurt" drum like Joey Jordison because he's looked so bad at the plate.  But last night, the smoothness and balance to his swing suddenly came back.

(Screen cap courtesy of MLB.com video)

Look at that.  The hips are rotated perfectly.  The arms are in time with the hip motion.  The weight is distributed perfectly.  And the timing is right on point with where the pitch was delivered.  That's the swing on his hit to lead off the inning, and the swing on his 2nd hit was just as pretty.  This is the swing we see when The Horse is on his game, and the 8th inning last night was the first time I remember seeing that swing since he came back.

Maybe this means the thumb isn't as bad as I thought.  Maybe it means that his other bumps and bruises are healed.  Maybe it means A-Rod really did just need to shake the rust off.  Whatever it means, the one thing we should all take from it is that The Horse might be starting to round back into form.  And if that's the case, his timing couldn't better.  A locked in Horse is a dangerous Horse, and it could spell good things for the rest of a lineup that started to stir last night.  I know I would not want to be in Doug Fister's cleats tomorrow night on the mound after seeing this take place last night.

ALDS Game 4 Thoughts & Afterthoughts

(All smiles when you win.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

You know what the best part of writing this recap is?  I'm not nearly as hung over as I anticipated because I didn't have to drink nearly as much to make it through the game.  Thanks, A.J.!

- I started getting a bad feeling that the jinx was on with TBS in the 1st inning when Brian Anderson stated that between the 2 teams, "only" Justin Verlander had better stuff than A.J.  Ummm, CC Sabathia, anybody?  Dave Robertson?  Benoit?  Scherzer?

- That was a pretty nice gallop by A-Rod to catch Santiago's pop-up bunt in the bottom of the 1st.  Did you see that stride??? Majestic.

- The beer was flowing heavily when A.J. loaded the bases, forced the bullpen to get up, and had Larry Rothschild come out to talk to him in the 1st.  If I were Rothschild, I would have just poked him in the eye, punched him in the sack, and walked back to the dugout.  In a related story, I would have been a terrible pitching coach.

- I almost had a heart attack/shit myself on C-Grand's diving/jumping catch of Don Kelly's liner to end the 1st inning.  If he doesn't catch that, that's 4 runs right there and probably the end of A.J.'s night.  The catch later will get all the headlines (and with good reason), but the importance of that 1st inning catch should not be understated.

- This was one of the earliest comments I made last night on The Official AB4AR Facebook Page, but I'll say it again.  The 7 combined pitches seen by Cano, A-Rod, Teix, and Swish in their first at-bats was fucking pathetic.  Just bad times all around.

- After a bad A.J. cameo in the 1st inning, he and Rothschild went to the clubhouse to talk/look at video/do something, and we were treated to Good A.J. in the 2nd.  His mechanics were much sharper, his delivery was smoother, and he threw just 10 pitches, 9 for strikes, to get out of the inning 1-2-3.  Whatever happened between him and Larry between the 1st and 2nd really set the tone for the rest of A.J.'s outing.

- Jeter finally put a good swing on a hittable pitch to drive in the first runs of the game in the 3rd inning.  Porcello left a sinker up and Jeter was right on the pitch.  Bonus point for Russell Martin for the hustle to score from first AAAAAAND the great slide to avoid Avila's tag.

- After a flawless first 2 innings, Porcello started to drift up in the zone with his pitches in the 3rd and 4th, and it got him into trouble.  He also couldn't locate his fastball inside to lefties and hit Teix and Jorge trying to work there.  Halfway through the 4th inning it looked like the wheels could fall off for Porcello at any minute.

- The A.J. Burnett Experience was in full effect in the 4th inning after a solid 3rd- He lost the zone, fell behind Victor Martinez, gave up a HR to him, gave up a double to Peralta (Bad A.J.), then recovered to strike out Avila and Wilson Betemit to end the inning (Good A.J.).  The back-to-back curveballs to Betemit were FILTHY.

- As lame as most commercials usually are during the postseason, the Geico commercial with the guinea pigs rowing a boat to power the dude's computer is absolutely fucking hilarious.  When he's talking about how he had to train the guinea pigs?  "Such a simple word.  'Row.'"  That's good stuff right there.

- Joe Girardi could teach a college course on bad bunting strategy.  Top 5th, 2 on, 0 out, Porcello teetering on the edge of falling apart, and Joe sends Jeter up to sac bunt the runners over.  Did Joe not watch Jeter's previous at-bat where he took Porcello to the DEEPEST PART OF THE PARK FOR A 2-RBI DOUBLE?!?!?!?!?!  And it was a terrible bunt that didn't even advance the runners, which is the risk you run when you take the bat out of people's hands.  Fuckin' A, man.  So stupid.

- The Yankees still managed to score in the inning, though, thanks to an awful pitch by Porcello to C-Grand.  Fastball that was supposed to be in ran right back over the plate and Curtis ripped it into right for a double.

- And not for nothing, but the sac fly by The Horse that scored the 4th run probably would have been a double if he was healthy.  That was another bad pitch by Porcello that caught too much of the plate.

- HUUUUUUGE bailout play by Ramon Santiago, swinging at the first pitch in the bottom of the 5th and grounding into a double play after Jackson's leadoff single.  That could have led to another path down the Bad A.J. Trail, but it was immediately erased.  What the hell was up with Jeter's throw to first, though?  All the time in the world and he basically bounced the thing halfway between 1st and 2nd.

- Miguel Cabrera looked a little bummed out after lining out to Jeter to end the 6th inning.  Somebody should have gotten him a drink.  HIIYOOOOOOOOOO!!!!