(Used courtesy of TYA. Sorry, no Bartolo)
The rotation preview post was done in 2 parts back in March: the "known" spots in the rotation and then the unknowns. Looking back on it, it's almost funny to think that I considered A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes part of the known group going in, as they were expected to be the #2 and #3 starters well the back end would be pieced together through a combination of Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and whatever group of Triple-A arms had to step up when Garcia and Colon got cut. Obviously, things didn't work out that way, but surprisingly, that not working out turned out to be a good thing for the Yankees, as they got way more production from their unknowns than anybody could have anticipated, turning the team's biggest weakness at the start of the season into one of their season-long strengths.
For the year, the Yankee rotation was above average. Nothing eye-popping, but certainly better than one would expect when the team got 51 combined starts from Garcia and Colon, only 14 from Phil Hughes (and an ineffective 14 at that), and 2 from somebody named Brien Gordon. Their starters combined for a 4.03 ERA (14th in MLB) and a 3.97 FIP (16th) in 979.1 IP (14th). They averaged 7.09 K/9 (10th), 2.88 B/9 (16th), and accumulated 16.7 WAR as a staff, good for 6th in baseball. That WAR stat in particular stands out as the biggest sign of the Yankees' rotational success in 2011. Their other peripheral numbers don't stand out amongst the competition, but they knew how to get outs when they needed them and generally always gave their team a chance to win the game. And with an offense like the Yankees', that's not a bad strategy to go with.
The rotation was anchored this season, as it was in the past 2, by CC Sabathia. The big guy came into a potential walk year in better shape than 2010 after having offseason knee surgery and was expected to have a big season. In the preview post, I stated that, "it would be crazy to expect anything less than another 18-20-win, 200+-inning, 2.75-3.25-ERA, 1.10-1.20-WHIP season from him in 2011," and Carsten did not disappoint. He won 19 games, threw 237.1 innings (4th most in the AL), and put up a 3.00/2.88/3.02 ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash line that was Cy Young-worthy. His 8.72 K/9 was good for 6th in the AL, and his 7.1 WAR led the league. It's those FIP and WAR numbers that really point to just how good CC was for the Yankees in 2011, and they make the most compelling argument for CC deserving the Cy Young over MSM darling Justin Verlander. However you want to break down the numbers, there's no desiring that CC carried the staff and at times the team this year. He did struggle down the stretch, especially in the ALDS, and what that is attributable to is still unclear, but I would say 2011 was CC's finest season as a Yankee, narrowly edging out '09. The big deal now will be to see how his opt-out clause plays out and how much it will cost the Yankees to bring him back for 2012 and beyond.
A.J. Burnett was once again penciled in as the #2 starter behind CC, even after his disastrous 2010 season. With Larry Rothschild coming aboard as the new pitching coach, A.J. was expected to rebound from 2010 and be more like the pitcher the Yanks envisioned they were getting when they signed him. Unfortunately things didn't work out that way, and A.J.'s 2011 was only slightly less awful than his 2010. The ERA (5.15) and FIP (4.77) were slightly below their 2010 levels, and A.J.'s stuff did come back a bit (8.18 K/9 this year compared to just 6.99 in 2010). But he still suffered from all the problems that always plague him: loss of command, inability to repeat delivery, loss of confidence, etc., and the final results are more related to those wrongs than any rights A.J. did have. The early exit against essentially the Twins' Triple-A team in the summer and jawing with Joe as he came off the mound was the low point, but to his credit A.J. did rebound in September and his one ALDS start to once again build some hope heading into 2012.
An even bigger disaster than A.J. as the #2 was Phil Hughes as the #3 this year. Hughes came in off a successful 2010 and there were hopes that he would supplant A.J. as the #2 starter and solidify the top of the rotation. Hughes' health had other ideas, however, and he was shelved with shoulder problems almost as soon as the season started. Hughes' fastball was nowhere to be found and he spent the better of 2011 either getting shelled or rehabbing. The final line on Hughes is ugly (5.79 ERA/4.58 FIP, 5.67 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.49 WHIP in just 74.2 IP), but it was the way his season played out that was truly upsetting. No stuff, no command, and really nothing to build on for 2012. Hughes went from a smaller innings total in '09 to a big total in 2010, and back to a small one in 2011, raising questions about his health, conditioning, and arm strength. He finished the season bounced back to the bullpen, and now sits perilously close to becoming another Joba-type who the Yankees mess up with the constant changing of roles and then give up on as a starter because his stuff "plays up" out of the 'pen. 2012 will be a make-or-break year for Phil and his future with the team.
As one young starter faltered, another flourished in his place in 2011, as Ivan Nova stepped up to the challenge of filling a need and went from floater between Triple-A and the Majors to the team's clear cut #2 starter by year's end. The key for Nova in 2011 was his offspeed stuff, in terms of not only improving the pitches themselves but also learning how to use them and when to use them when working through a lineup multiple times. Nova became infinitely better at doing that as the season progressed, especially late in the summer when he came back from an undeserved Triple-A demotion to make room for Hughes, and he made the leap from prospect to legitimate solid Major League starter. In 165.1 innings over 27 starts, Nova put up a 3.70 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 2.7 WAR, and those numbers wood look even better if it wasn't for his disastrous first month. His K/9 is still lower than you'd like to see (5.33) and his BB/9 is a little higher (3.10), but those numbers were trending the right way as the season progressed, another sign of Nova learning how to use his pitches better. Nova showed that he's the real deal in 2011 and should come into 2012 as a lock for the rotation as he continues to improve his slider and curveball.
CC's carrying the torch and Nova's growing up were key factors in 2011, but without a doubt the unsung heroes and most pleasant surprises in 2011, not only for the rotation but also the entire team, were the combination of Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. 2 guys who were brought in on non-guaranteed Minor League deals and only really expected to bridge the gap until the Yanks made a trade, Garcia and Colon each spent portions of the regular season as the Yankees' best starter behind CC. Colon was particularly effective in the first half, showing the kind of life and command on his 2- and 4-seamers that hasn't been seen in 4-5 years. He faded down the stretch as the season took its toll on his older, out-of-shape body, but 164.1 IP of 4.00 ERA/3.83 FIP ball with 7.39 K/9 was more than the Yankees' money's worth. Garcia used his collection of junk to navigate through 146.2 IP of 3.62 ERA/4.12 FIP ball along the way.
These 2 combined for 20 wins, 5.1 WAR, and over 300 IP in a year where they were basically placeholders. It's unknown if either will be back in 2012 (most likely not), but it's undeniable that they were the glue that held this rotation together in 2011 while A.J. sputtered, Phil shut down, and Ivan grew up. Without Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, the Yankees probably don't win the AL East this season (who would have believed I'd be saying that?)
It seems like the rotation is always the biggest topic of discussion for the Yankees and 2011 was no different. Guys who were expected to step up didn't, guys who were expected to flame out didn't, and in the middle of all of that one young afterthought rose to prominence to become the team's best starter in the postseason and no new faces were brought in from the outside. That trend probably won't continue this offseason, as I expect the Yankees to be active on the FA market. But some familiar faces will return. A.J. isn't going anywhere with that contract, Phil and Nova are under team control, and it would be shocking to see CC not end up back in pinstripes if he chooses to opt out. There are pieces in place to build the 2012 rotation to be better than 2011's. What kind of magic Cash will use to fill in the gaps remains to be seen.
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