The Yankees and Tigers met 7 times in the regular season, first in the season opening series at the end of March/beginning of April and then in early May, with the Tigers taking 4 of the 7 games. In the months since then, a lot of things have changed about each team, but many things have stayed the same. There will be a few new faces on either side that weren't present in the spring, but the core of each team remains intact. A basic once over of each team reveals more similarities than differences.
Both teams boast strong, deep lineups that were among the best in baseball all season (Yankees .346 wOBA- 3rd in MLB; Tigers .336- 4th. Both teams in top 5 in wRC+), and both have rotations with strength at the top and then question marks behind that (CC-Nova for the Yanks, Verlander-Fister for the Tigers). Both teams can hit, and both teams can pitch (kinda), so there won't be an easy predictors for determining victory at the basic level, AKA the Tim McCarver Method of Analyzing Baseball. Luckily, I've already done a little digging to find the 3 keys to this series.
1) Speed/Athleticism
Something that typically gets overlooked in baseball decisions, and something I admittedly rarely consider when breaking down matchups, but there are some stats tied to this that the Yanks and Tigers are not even close in, and it will play a factor. First, defensively the Yankees boast a team Fielding Rating of 22.9, good for 7th in MLB. The Tigers team rating is -2.0, which puts them near the bottom. The Yankees are boosted by strong ratings for Brett Gardner in left and Nick Swisher in right, as well as Martin behind the plate, Teix at first, and A-Rod at third, and even Jeter, Cano, and C-Grand pass the eye test at their respective positions more often than not. The Tigers, however, are a bit of a mess in the field. There's nobody close to a Gold Glover in the infield, and even the speed of Austin Jackson can't cover for the limitations of the lumbering Delmon Young in left and Magglio Ordonez in right. Quite simply, the Yankees get to more balls and make more plays in the field than the Tigers do.
The other area where the Yanks' athleticism advantage should show through is on the basepaths. The Yankees' team Baserunning Rating of 1.1 only puts them in the middle of the pack amongst MLB teams, but the Tigers' rating of -7.6 ranks 26th. And there's also the wide gap in stolen bases to consider. New York's 147 SB was 4th in baseball; Detroit's 49 was dead last. We've seen the Yankees go for the steal, double steal, hit-and-run, and sac bunt often this season, using their speed and baserunning skills to their advantage. We won't see any of that from the Tigers.
It's a small part of the game, something that can't be as easily measure statistically as other things, but those numbers show that the Yankees have a decided advantage in the Speed/Athleticism department. Their defense gets a boost from it, allowing them to better pick up their pitchers when the ball is in play, and their offense becomes more dynamic and more versatile as a result of their speed on the basepaths. In a short series it will be next to impossible to quantify this, but we've all seen how just a couple of plays here and there can change a series: a diving catch here, a stolen base or extra base taken on a ball in the gap there. The Yankees are much more equipped to take advantage of those opportunities than the Tigers are and I expect them to continue to use that to their advantage every chance they get.
2) Miguel Cabrera
The Tiger lineup is nothing to sneeze at. Austin Jackson, despite a bit of sophomore slump, is still dangerous at the top, Delmon Young was a great deadline pickup to add length and power to the lineup, and Victor Martinez, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta all put up All Star-caliber numbers with the stick in 2011. But Miguel Cabrera is still the straw that stirs the drink offensively for Detroit and the one guy that every team gameplans for. Oh, and there's also the fact that he's a certified Yankee killer. Actually check that, he's a Yankee serial arsonist/rapist/murderer.
From 2008-2010, Cabrera has feasted on Yankee pitching to the tune of a .342/.407/.699 line in 73 at-bats, including 11 XBH and 15 RBI. Cabrera continued that trend in 2011, putting up a 1.217 OPS with 4 XBH and 8 RBI in just 24 at-bats against Yankee pitching. And his numbers get even better when he's hitting at Yankee Stadium. Cabrera has flat out owned Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes, and CC Sabathia in his career, and has a double and a walk in 3 career PAs against D-Rob, but hasn't done much against Mo and Sour Puss. How the Yankees choose to handle Cabrera in this series will be a big factor in limiting damage, especially if they're able to successfully deal with Jackson, whoever hits 2nd, and Delmon Young ahead of him. I expect to see more than 1 intentional pass handed to Cabrera during the series, especially if the corpse of Ordonez is ever batting behind him.
3) The Holy Bullpen Trinities
I've spent enough time here drooling all over Mo and D-Rob's dicks, and even with the few recent bumps in the road, Soriano has been solid since coming back from the DL. That 7th-8th-9th dynamic will be a major plus for the Yankees in shortening games in Nova and Freddy's starts, and Joe won't hesitate to use them in those spots after getting them enough rest down the stretch. But the Tigers have their own threesome that's just as dangerous at the back end of their 'pen. Former Ray Joaquin Benoit, rookie Al Albuquerque, and goofy asshole Jose Valverde put up monster numbers themselves as the Tigers' 7th-8th-9th bridge to victory. When you stack up their 3 against New York's 3, the similarities are striking:
NYY Big 3: 167.1 IP, 120 H, 61 BB, 39 ER, 196 K
DET Big 3: 176.2 IP, 120 H, 80 BB, 47 ER, 199 K
A few more walks and a few more runs allowed by the Detroit crew, but they are just as dynamic stuff-wise as the Yankee trio, maybe even more so, and just as capable of shutting a team down in the late innings. What remains to be seen is how each side will handle the pressure of the postseason. Despite his perfect save conversion rate in 2011, Valverde has shown the ability to completely melt down in the past, and A-Albu is a rookie who's never pitched in front of a packed house in The Stadium in October. In close games, it will likely be these 6 guys who determine who wins and who loses.
So there you go. Playing good defenses, running the bases, shutting down Miguel Cabrera, and solid bullpen pitching will determine the winner of this series. Earth-shattering stuff, I know. But mark my words, all 3 will play big factors, likely the deciding factors, as the rest of the 2 rosters are so even. And with 2 of these 3 factors boding well for the Yankees, that's a good sign. That's why I'm making my prediction right now, and my prediction is:
** Yankees in 5. **
Book it.
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