Friday Afternoon "Nobody Is Even Reading This Because The Game Is On" Linkapalooza: 4/6

It's Opening Day, so obviously sitting around checking the Yankosphere isn't anybody's highest priority.  But that still won't stop me from giving the best of the best their props for a job well done.  So when you're done watching the game, come check out the best of the week that was.  Onto the links.

- On Monday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog examined the Montero-for-Pineda trade through the lens of the recent trend of teams extending their young stars to long-term deals.

- EJ Fagan of TYA questioned the Montero-Pineda trade and explained why, given Pineda's recent injury issues, he wouldn't have made it.

- Brien Jackson of IIATMS took a stab at predicting how long Michael Pineda's rehab timetable will be.

- On Tuesday, Rebecca Glass of the recently resurrected This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes mused on Ivan Nova's spring struggles and why it's still important for him to pitch well this season.

- On Wednesday, FJ25 of Yankees Fans Unite discussed how the Yankees can use their failures with developing Joba and Hughes as a blueprint for how to get it right with Pineda.

- Mike Ashmore of Thunder Thoughts had a profile post on Trenton reliever Chase Whitley, who could make his way onto many top prospect lists with another good season this year.

- On Thursday, Curtis Clark of Bronx Baseball Daily took a position-by-position look at the Yankees defensively.  If Brett Gardner doesn't win a Gold Glove this season, the award should be done away with.

- Josh Norris of Minor Matters got a quick interview with the rehabbing Jeremy Bleich.  Bleich is a former top pick and hopefully he can make it back to the mound this season.

- Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible weighed in with the 5 biggest questions he has about the 2012 Yankees.

- The always on point Mark Feinsand of the Daily News offered up his round of predictions for the 2012 season.

- Matt Hunter of Yanks Go Yard listed the 3 things to pay attention to in the first week of the season.

- Chad Jennings of LoHud had a great post on David Phelps' reaction to making the 25-man roster.  His family will be in the house this weekend to hopefully see him make his big league debut.  Major +1 to Phelps for the Willie Mays Hayes reference.

- On Friday, el duque of It Is High... offered his 5 predictions for the 2012 season.  No surprise to see he's not confident in the rotation.

- Mike Axisa of RAB offered up his opinions on Joe's recent lineup decisions against right-handed and left-handed pitchers and how Eduardo Nunez factors into those decisions.

As for the Friday Jam, if you've been a regular reader of AB4AR for a while and you don't know what song I'm playing today for Opening Day, then I just don't know what to tell you.  Happy Opening Day, everybody.  Let's go Yankees!



Enjoy your Easter weekends, people.

Opening Day Starting Lineup

Nothing fancy, nothing special.  Just the A-team.

1) Derek Jeter- SS
2) Curtis Granderson- CF
3) Robinson Cano- 2B
4) Alex Rodriguez- 3B
5) Mark Teixeira- 1B
6) Nick Swisher- RF
7) Raul Ibanez
8) Russell Martin- C
9) Brett Gardner- LF

SP) CC Sabathia

Game on.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: 10 Fearless Yankee Predictions For 2012

If you've been an AB4AR follower for a while, and you can remember back to last season and the first batch of fearless predictions I made, you know I'm straight money at this.  Picking division winners and MVPs is child's play.  It takes a real baseball genius to lay the type of future prognostication I'm about to lay on everybody right now.  Bookmark this page, use it to lay a few prop bets for the season if  you'd like, and then thank me in November.  Here are the 2012 AB4AR 10 Fearless Predictions:

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Predictions

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Well, we've reached the end of AB4AR Season Preview Week, which can mean only one thing...

IT'S YANKEES OPENING DAY, YEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

I've previewed everything I can preview, and from those previews I feel really good about this year's team.  The lineup is stacked, the rotation is deep, the bullpen is tough, and the bench is serviceable.  As long as Joe keeps his nose out of the bullpen binder and doesn't put the bunt on in situations that don't call for it, this should be a very good year for the Yankees.  There's nothing more to analyze, so the only left to do is get on with the predictions, starting with the AL East.  Because I have horrible math skills and don't feel like putting the effort in on a holiday, this is the only division for which I'm predicting records.

AL East

1) Yankees: 97-65
2) Rays: 90-72 (2nd WC)
3) Fraud Sawx: 88-74
4) Blue Jays: 85-77
5) Orioles: 66-96

Check out the rest of the AB4AR 2012 predictions after the jump

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Bench

(It's a Swiss Eduarmy Knife.  Courtesy of The AP)

We've reached the final piece of the 25-man puzzle for the 2012 Yankees, the bench.  The Yankees tried to build a mix of young internal pieces and cheap veterans last season and it worked out pretty well for them.  So as much as I was against holding out to spend less money on guys like Eric Chavez and his spotty health history again, and would have rather rolled with the young bucks in house, I can't really argue with the plan when it's worked for them before.  The 2012 bench will be comprised of mostly familiar faces, with one new surprise entrant included after yesterday's surprising catching moves.  There's flexibility in this group, and that's really the most important thing for the Yankees, as they aren't looking for consistent day in/day out production from anybody on their bench, but rather the ability to plug guys into spots for a day or 2 and keep their older veterans rested and fresh.

The first member of the bench is also the newest member.  For some reason the Yankees decided they weren't comfortable with Francisco Cervelli as their backup, even though he's held the role for the past 2 seasons, and so they brought in former MiL farmhand Chris Stewart.  Stewart is a defensive-only catcher and proved that last season in his first major chunk of Major League work, posting a .204/.283/.309 line, .259 wOBA, and 60 wRC+  in 183 plate appearances with the Giants.  He can take a pitch here and there but anything the Yankees get from him with the stick is gravy.  As a defense-only catcher, however, he is a very good one.  He threw out 28 of 72 attempted base stealers last season, good for 38.9%, and was ranked as the 15th best defensive catcher out of 114 last season by Beyond The Boxscore.  For all his offensive shortcomings, Stewart did rack up 1.2 fWAR last year in his limited work, and if he can quickly learn how to work with the Yankees' pitching staff he should be fine for the purposes of giving Martin a rest every now and then.

More after the jump

The 5 Most Important Yankees For 2012

A more appropriate title for this post might have been "The 5 Most Important Yankees For 2012 Besides the Obvious Choices."  We can all agree that CC is important because he's the ace of the staff and if he went down that would be a problem.  Same with Cano as the best hitter in the lineup or Mo as the closer.  I wanted to think outside that box a little and find the 5 guys on the roster who I think will make the difference between the 2012 edition of the New York Yankees being a good team and a great team; between losing in the ALCS and winning the World Series.  I'm sure there will be some disagreement with my choices, but these 5 guys are my most important Yankees for 2012.

1) Russell Martin

The abundance of upper-level catching depth that the Yankees had last season has vanished with the retirement of Jorge Posada, the trading away of Jesus Montero, and the continuing back problems of Austin Romine.  Russell Martin's value to the team increased slightly with each of those occurrences, and now with the Yankees scrambling to replace the missing depth through minor moves he becomes even more important.  No offense to the Francisco Cervellis, Craig Tatums, or Chris Stewarts of the world, but if they are getting regular at-bats as part of an everyday Yankee lineup in place of Martin, that's not a good thing.  Martin is a former Silver Slugger at the plate and a former Gold Glove winner behind it.  He's familiar with everybody on the Yankee staff and looking to make a big splash in a contract year.  A healthy, productive Martin makes the lineup deeper and more dangerous, and the drop-off from his production to that of any of the current backup options is significant.

2) Derek Jeter

Jeter might be the biggest wild card in the lineup in terms of which way his production can go this season.  The way he finished 2011 has created elevated expectations for him this season, and he has looked good again at the plate this spring since coming back from his calf strain.  But don't forget that he was close to below average for the early part of last season, and history is working against him as a 37-year-old shortstop turning 38 in the summer.  A repeat of 2011's second half, or something close to it, would be great from Jeter.  It would create more RBI opportunities for the hitters behind him, inspire confidence that Jeter can at least remain serviceable through the end of his contract, and mask his defensive deficiencies to a certain degree.  A step back towards his 2010-early 2011 numbers makes that contract look worse and brings back the "Joe should move Jeter out of the leadoff spot" media frenzy that nobody wants to deal with.

Last 3 after the jump

Did I Jinx Cervelli Yesterday?

As Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily was kind enough to point out, I kinda blew my 25-man roster predictions yesterday.  The Phelps-over-Mitchell pick I can't get too upset about.  I know I'm more pro-Mitchell than most other Yankee fans out there.  But the Cervelli demotion for Chris Stewart was a complete shock to me, and after suggesting in the comments that I might have jinxed Mitchell, Rob hypothesized that I did the same thing to Frankie.

So Frankie, if you're reading this, I'm really sorry.  Seriously, dude.  I know I've bagged on you for not being able to hit, not being able to field, not being able to throw anybody out, and for wearing that ridiculous Great Gazoo concussion batting helmet, but you didn't deserve what you got yesterday and you have a right to be pissed.  Cash and Joe can say whatever they want about building depth and being solid at catcher from an organizational standpoint, but getting demoted for a guy with a .200/.273/.290 career tripleslash in the Majors is a pretty significant kick in the dick.  They did you dirty yesterday, and if I in any way contributed to that dirty deed, you have my apologies.  I'd much rather have you as the backup catcher than Chris Stewart.

(Sad Frankie is sad. Courtesy of Kim Klement/US Presswire)

P.S.- I should probably get on that whole t-shirt design thing, huh?

Roster Decision Roundup

Well I guess 23 out of 25 ain't bad, huh?  I thought I had it nailed down this morning, but the Yankees hit me (and I'm sure many others) with a few surprises today.  I covered some of this on the AB4AR Page earlier, but here's a quick recap of the day's roster events.

- David Phelps was named the long man out of the bullpen.  I preferred D.J. Mitchell but you really can't say this is a bad choice.  Phelps probably is a better pitcher than Mitchell and I always say bring your 25 best.

- Francisco Cervelli was NOT named the backup catcher.  Instead, he will be heading to Triple-A to replace Austin Romine while Romine recovers from his back injury.

- Replacing Cervelli on the 25-man will be former Snan Francisco Giant and Yankee MiL catcher Chris Stewart.  Stewart is an all-field/no-hit catcher if ever there was one, and he cost the Yankees George Kontos to get.  Kontos was possibly undervalued as a potential relief arm, but not a huge loss.

- OF Justin Maxwell was designated for assignment, a move that wasn't surprising but a bit disappointing considering what he brings to the table as bench insurance for Andruw Jones.  There's no chance he slips through the cracks like C-Dick did.  Even if he clears waivers, Maxwell can choose free agency over a Triple-A assignment.

- IF Bill Hall was granted his release.  He didn't have an out in his contract, but he requested it and the Yankees honored that request.  One less thing I'll have to complain about this season.

- 3 other guys on MiL deals- Doug Bernier, Jayson Nix, and Dewayne Wise- were not offered roster spots by other teams and so will be retained as emergency depth in Triple-A.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Bullpen

(The man, the myth, the legend.  Courtesy of The AP)

When last year's rotation was expected to be a weak link, the Yankees attempted to make up for it by signing Rafael Soriano and building a modern day version of the Nasty Boys in their 'pen.  The plan didn't exactly pan out, as Joba went down early with TJS and Soriano spent the bulk of the season either on the DL or being only marginally effective, but all in all the 'pen still ended up being a strength for the Yanks.  Mo was Mo, D-Rob stepped up in a big way to fill the void left by Joba and Sour Puss, and the rest of the group stepped up to provide quality innings.  The majority of that group is back in the fold this year, with a few new faces sprinkled in, and the Yankee 'pen should once again be a strength for the team.  With some breaking news today on the health status of one of the key pieces, there could be some last-minute changes coming to this group for Opening Day.  But relief arms are a position of depth for the organization, and if the Yankees could piece together a solid relief corp last season there's no reason they can't do the same this year.

No matter who's filling in the 6 spots behind him, the Yankee bullpen always starts and ends with Mariano Rivera.  This season could be the last time we're able to say that, but when it can still be said, that inspires a lot of confidence in the Yankees' ability to close out games.  Mo bucked his usual Spring Training trend this year by showing up earlier, starting his work earlier, and pitching in games earlier, and it doesn't seem to have changed the results one bit.  In 8 IP over 8 appearances this spring, Mo has allowed just 4 hits and has struck out 4 batters while walking none.  He did allow an earned run for the first time since 2008 in a recent outing, but even Mo isn't perfect.  He's healthy, his velocity and command is right where it always is, and he's right on track to have another dominant season.  He's coming at hitters with the cutter, they know he's coming at them with the cutter, and there ain't a damn thing they can do about it.  Every save he earns this season will be a record-setting one, and with the rest of the team around him there should be save opportunities aplenty for the G.O.A.T.

More after the jump

Final 25-Man Roster Prediction

There isn't much drama in making these selections thanks to recent injury developments.  But since the rosters have to be set for Opening Day by 5PM today, I might as well submit the 25 players I think Joe will end up taking.  I'm sure he's been waiting for me to give him a few last-minute pointers anyway.  Probably not fair of me to keep him waiting any longer.

- Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez

- Outfielders: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez

- Catchers: Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli

- Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

- Relief Pitchers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan, Cory Wade, Clay Rapada, D.J. Mitchell

There you have it.  If I'm wrong, everybody gets one of the free AB4AR t-shirts that still don't exist.

Andy Takes The Mound Today

“I bounced back pretty good after that last one, so we feel like an inning would be good tomorrow. I realized I feel good enough to pitch.”

And with that statement, it became official that Andy Pettitte would pitch in Spring Training.  He's been working hard since the day he announced he was coming back- going through drills and exercises to build up strength, throwing bullpens, throwing BP, throwing simulated games- and now that tomorrow has become today and today Andy Pettitte will once again take the hill as a New York Yankee.

I know I wasn't as super-jacked as most other people about Andy's return when it was first announced.  I kept looking at it strictly from a baseball perspective, probably too much of a future baseball perspective, and I questioned whether mixing Andy in with the young stable of pitchers would help or hurt their development if they ended up being the one who was kicked out of the rotation for him.  As it turns out, that was the wrong way to think about it and it was an incredibly smart move to make by the Yankees.  For someone like Andy, it was wrong of me to put my fan side aside for the baseball side and question people's motivations.  Just another example of why Cash is making the baseball decisions I'm sitting at a desk writing a blog.

When Andy retired, I honestly thought it was for good.  The timing was right, he had nothing left to prove, and there hadn't been any hints that he was even remotely interested in coming back until he popped up at camp this year.  As much as we all didn't want to see him go, he really had no reason to stay, at least until last December when he got the itch again.  Now he's back, he's healthy, and he looks good so far, almost like he never left.

I have no way of knowing how Andy is going to pitch today against the Mets or this season against everybody else at age 40. None of us do.  But right now, I really don't even care about that.  This afternoon, something is going to happen that I never thought I would see happen again.  Andy Pettitte, one of my favorite Yankees of all time, is going to take the mound and pitch in a Major League Baseball game wearing the Yankee colors, and that's pretty damn cool.

(Quote courtesy of The AP)

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Rotation

(Hey new guy!  Courtesy of The AP)

For the first time in what seems like ages, the Yankees enter a season without major questions in the rotation.  Sure, there are still questions, but not of the usual "Who's going to be the __th starter?" variety that has been the norm for the past few years.  The Yankees went out this offseason and made moves to fortify both the depth and the talent level of their rotation, starting with the new contract for CC and ending with the surprise signing and un-retirement of Andrew Eugene Pettitte.  There have been a few bumps in the road in Spring Training leading up to the final determination of the starting 5, and some who were thought to be a part of the Opening Day rotation won't be, but the Yankees head into the 2012 season with a no-doubt starting 5 intact and plenty of reserves on standby to cover for injuries or ineffectiveness.  The 2011 rotation ended up being sneaky good, much better than most people anticipated.  Expectations are much higher for 2012's group and they should be.  Despite the recent injury issues, there is no reason that the rotation can't be a major strength for the Bombers in 2012.

Starting at the top, CC Sabathia will once again be the ace of the staff, and as aces go you can't do a whole lot better than CC.  He's big, he's durable, he gives his team lots of innings, and he produces at a Cy Young-worthy level in those innings.  At this point, CC's transformation from thrower to pitcher is complete, as he has a firm grasp on all the pitchers in his arsenal and knows how to use them all to be effective against any type of hitter and any lineup.  The hefty lefty is coming off of his best season in pinstripes (3.00/2.88/3.02 with 8.72 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 in 237.1 IP in 2011) and will be looking to build on that with another re-commitment to managing his weight.  He shed some pounds before arriving at camp last year, but over the course of the season put it all back on.  He has dropped a few LBs again in 2012, and is planning to make a concerted effor to keep it off and keep himself fresh over the long haul.  Despite his size, CC has never been a big injury risk, but as he starts to transition further into his 30s that injury risk becomes greater and the Yankees want to do everything they can to keep him healthy.  He's struggled with his command a bit in camp this year, specifically his fastball, but right now there's no reason to expect anything other than another stellar year from him.

More after the jump

D.J. Mitchell For Long Reliever

The injuries to Michael Pineda and Cesar Cabral this past weekend added a little spice to what was going to be a rather boring final decision on the 25-man roster this week. The only real question was whether Cabral or Clay Rapada was going to get the final bullpen spot, and no offense to those guys but a "Rapada vs. Cabral" battle doesn't exactly get the media all stirred up. A second opening in the bullpen was created when Freddy Garcia was moved into Pineda's spot in the rotation, and the leading candidates for his long relief role are the trio of D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, and Adam Warren. Those names doesn't exactly sell papers either, but they are the best options to fill what could become an important role in the bullpen once the season starts. The Yankees could throw a curveball and add another position player or send down Cory Wade, but I'm banking on Joe's familiarity with Wade being enough to give Wade a spot. I also think Wade getting that spot with how poorly he's pitched this spring necessitates another relief option in the 'pen, and I'm publicly throwing my support behind D.J. Mitchell for the role.

Mitchell has always been looked at as a relief conversion candidate internally because of his makeup. He's got 3 decent offerings, but nothing overwhelming and nothing that profiles as a big-time strikeout pitch. He also has the least consistent fastball command out of himself, Phelps, and Warren, something that dropped him below the other two in most every side-by-side-by-side prospect comparison. Because of these two factors, the perception has always been that Mitchell would struggle to mix pitches and get guys out the 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup at the Major League level and that he might be better served maximizing the value of his offerings in shorter outings. From his collection of 2-seamer, 4-seamer, slider, change, he should be able to find the 2, maybe 3 that work best in short outings and focus on developing those for relief purposes.

The other thing Mitchell has going for him is that he's worked exclusively in a relief role this spring, whereas Phelps and Warren have thrown more pitches and more innings to stretch themselves out as starters for Triple-A. All 6 of his Spring Training appearances have been in relief and all 6 have been between 2-3 innings, exactly what the Yankees would be looking to get out of their long man. Mitchell's overall ST line of 14.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 8 BB, 12 K isn't head-over-heels great, but when you factor out his bad outing against Detroit on 3/24 the remaining line of 11.I IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K is pretty damn good and a sign that there might be something to the theory of Mitchell's stuff playing up a bit out of the 'pen. It's also worth noting that Mitchell has been experimenting with a cutter this spring, and his attempts to work it into his repertoire during games could be a contributing factor to his recent outings not being as solid as his first few.

Mitchell was moved to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft, so the Yankees obviously see value in him and likely realize they are getting to the point of "you-know-what or get off the pot" time with him. They won't have to make any funky moves to get him onto the 25-man to open the season, and his presence in the Major League bullpen would open up a much-needed spot in the Triple-A rotation for Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda to complete their prep/rehab work when the time comes. The Yankees could also use this as an opportunity to showcase Mitchell to teams interested in trading for him and ease a potential logjam in the Triple-A rotation that could creep up later in the season. And who knows? Maybe Mitchell finds something with this new cutter and finds his calling a late-inning stopper. There is really no downside to this move and everything is already set up to make it a smooth, painless transition. D.J. Mitchell as the 25th man to open the season should be a no-brainer.

The End Of The Yankees' 2012 FA Pitcher Search

Take a look at this blind career comparison of 3 starting pitchers:

- Player A: 3.35/3.69/4.26, 7.41 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 25.0 bWAR
- Player B: 3.39/3.63/3.42, 8.45 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 22.5 bWAR
- Player C: 3.82/3.51/3.68, 7.96 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 24.4 bWAR

Which one would you want on your team?  You really can't go wrong with any of the 3 to be honest.  That's 3 top flight starting pitchers all in the prime of their careers at ages 27 (A) and 28 (B and C).  Player A is actually Matt Cain, who became the richest right-hander in baseball yesterday by signing a new 6-year/$127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants.  Player B is Cole Hamels and Player C is Zack Greinke, and collectively these 3 would have made one of the best classes of free agent pitchers in baseball history after the 2012 season.  The Yankees could have been major players in that market, but after seeing what Cain got from San Fran I think it's safe to say the Yankees' pursuit of any of these 3 is over before it started.

Cain is a helluva pitcher, but the argument could be made that he's the third best out of this group.  If he's pulling in over $21 mil per year in his new deal, that all but guarantees Hamels and Greinke will get more.  Hamels' numbers are better than Cain's almost across the board and he has the added benefit of being left-handed.  Greinke's numbers stack up favorably to Cain's as well and he has a Cy Young under his belt and a track record of success in both leagues.  If Cain is pulling $21 mil, these other 2 are going to get more, and with the self-imposed 2014 payroll cap looming over them, that kind of money is going to be too rich for the Yankees' blood.

Chances are the Yankees weren't going to be heavily involved with these 3 anyway after making the Pineda trade, but if the price tags could have stayed in the $18-20 million range maybe we would have seen them make an offer.  No chance of that happening now, assuming Hamels and Greinke even make it to free agency.  Michael, Ivan, Phil, Manny?  You guys just became even more important.

Hip Looks Good...

(Courtesy of MLB.com)

Do not sleep on The Horse, people.  Do not sleep on The Horse.

ST Thoughts & Afterthoughts: The Third

("Alright, everybody. Remember to study those matchup binders!" Courtesy of The AP)

It's the last week of Spring Training this week, so it seems like the perfect time to go through the last batch of random Spring Training thoughts rattling around in my head before the regular season begins, right?  Right.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Lineup

(3/4 of the best infield in baseball or... ?)

The 2012 New York Yankees lineup will look almost identical to the one they put on the field for the majority of the 2011 season.  For a big budget team with all its big guys under contract, that's not very surprising.  What is surprising is the path the Yankees chose to take in changing the lineup this season, as what was supposed to be an injection of youth in the form of Jesus Montero as the everyday DH turned into a blockbuster trade to improve the rotation and a subsequent cost-conscious signing of an aging player not much younger than Jorge Posada was when he was the Opening Day DH last year.  There might be a bit of a course for concern here, as there are some members of the Yankee lineup who have settled into the downside of their careers, and a young bat like Montero's could have been the perfect way to balance the past and present that those players represent with the future that Montero represented.  Even in the downside, however, the Yankee veterans are still capable of producing at an above-average level.  It's exactly how far above the above-average level that will determine whether this lineup takes a step back towards the rest of the pack or once again lays claim to being the best lineup in baseball.

At the top of the order, things will look the same as they did last season with the The Captain, Derek Jeter, leading off again.  Jeter is coming off a major up-and-down season in 2011, with the first half being way down and the second half being way up.  He'll be looking to build off that strong finish to his 2011 and after a slow start in camp, and another calf injury, he has picked it up recently at the plate and still looks to have enough bat speed to be effective.  His defense at short is what it is at this point, and expecting a repeat of his 2011 second half for a full season might be overreaching, but another solid all-around year would go a long way in building confidence that Jeter can remain useful through the remaining life of his contract.

Hitting behind Jeter will once again be center fielder Curtis Granderson, coming off a career year and a year not had by a Yankee outfielder in quite some time.  Curtis has come out of the gate swinging in 2012 and looks primed to put together another MVP-caliber season.  Projections across the board have him slated for a drop in power production, which is reasonable to expect after the 41 home runs he put up last year.  But Granderson is so tuned in to his new swing mechanics that he can recognize when his swing is on and when it's not, something that could never be said about Granderson before.  Even if the HR numbers drop, Granderson's increasing self-awareness at the plate and goal to cut down on strikeouts could lead to another monster year without the 40+ dingers.

More after the jump

2012 AB4AR Minor League Season Preview: The Upper Levels

The lower levels were looked at yesterday, and there's a lot to like down there, but those kids are all still at least 2 years away from putting on the real Yankee pinstripes.  Today we look at the top levels of the system, where players are much closer to reaching the show, some perhaps as early as this month.

High-A Tampa Yankees

They don't have the quantity or the "wow" factor of the talent collection in Charleston, but there's plenty of talent to be had in Tampa this year, starting at the front and back ends of the pitching staff.  Nik Turley, the big left-hander, had a breakout season last year and had it cut short after breaking his pitching hand.  He'll be the ace of the rotation that will also feature Jose Ramirez, who despite having a rough 2011 is still young enough and still has the raw stuff to become a notable prospect name again.  Hopefully closing out a lot of their wins in the bullpen will be the dynamic duo of Mark Montgomery and Branden Pinder, arguably the 2 best relief prospects in the entire Yankee system and the leaders of the "D-Rob Clone" Club.  Tommy Kahnle will be joining them after completing his ExST rehab, as will a former starting prospect looking to re-establish himself in Jairo Heredia.

Offensively, the biggest name is J.R Murphy, who will follow up his breakout season in 2011 by being the starting catcher in Tampa, at least until Gary Sanchez gets called up.  Murphy's ability to play multiple positions will guarantee him ABs no matter what.  Next to Murphy, Ramon Flores, Rob Segedin, and Kyle Roller are the 3 most recognizable names in the lineup, and all will be looking to prove their worth as legit prospects.  Slade Heathcott will miss the opening of the season as he is still recovering from shoulder surgery, and it's still yet to be determined on when he can actually return to action.  It could be a make or break year for Heathcott this year.

Double-A Trenton Thunder

If there's a roster less sexy than Tampa, it might be Trenton's.  The 2 names that bring any sizzle are Brett Marshall, who will be the hands down best starter in a rotation full of organizational filler, and Zoilo Almonte, who earned himself a spot on the 40-man roster after a big 2011 and will be looking to continue that momentum towards a possible future job in the big league outfield.  Both of these guys impressed the Yankees' coaching staff in big league camp this spring, Almonte by going 4-14 with 4 RBI and and Marshall by throwing 6 innings of 2-run ball with 7 strikeouts over 3 appearances, and could work their way into the top 10 of many 2012-2013 top prospects lists with good 2012 campaigns.

After Marshall and Almonte, the next 2 most interesting names are second baseman David Adams and starting pitcher Graham Stoneburner, both looking to bounce back from injury woes.  Adams has missed almost 2 full seasons after his horrific ankle injury (a common theme lately) and Stoneburner had a wasted 2011 with neck issues.  Other guys of note include infielder Ronnier Mustelier, shortstop Jose Pirela, and relief pitcher Chase Whitley.  The lineup could become more interesting after some mid-season promotions (Murphy, Flores), but outside of Almonte there really isn't a legit big-time hitting prospect to be found.

Triple-A Empire State Yankees

They've got a new name for the 2012 season thanks to their stadium renovations making them a homeless home team this year, but the pitching depth that was Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's calling card in 2011 is still intact.  Their starting rotation includes 5 guys who could all conceivably be starting in the Major Leagues this year, headlined by unanimous top 5 Yankee prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances.  Those guys get the ink, but the unheralded trio of David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, and Adam Warren are all worth taking notice of as well and will be above ManBan and Betances in the pecking order if this group's services are required in the Majors.  In fact, recent injury developments could land one of these 3 a job right out of camp.  For Banuelos and Betances, this season should be their final opportunity to refine their repertoires and build innings before making their Major League debuts in 2013.

A glimpse of the lineup doesn't show a lot of promise, but there are a few names of note.  Austin Romine will be the full-time starting catcher for Empire State this year, at least he will be whenever he gets over the back problems that have been plaguing him.  Another down year like last year could kill Romine's stock as a legit Major League catching prospect.  Corban Joseph continues his methodical rise through the system by nailing down the second base job, and could be called up to the Majors in a pinch, as could third baseman Brandon Laird.  Beyond these 3, there are a lot of names that could be used to plug holes in the 25-man roster (Whelan, Pope, Delcarmen, Pena, Curtis, Cust, and maybe even Branyan eventually), but nothing nearly as exciting as Banuelos.

AB4AR 2012 Season Preview Continues Tomorrow

The knowns and unknowns have been covered, the Minor Leagues will be finished later today, so the only thing left is to finally preview the 2012 New York Yankees.  A few big things happened this week that could make the season play out differently than we thought it would, and starting tomorrow all of it will be covered.  The schedule for the final week of the official 2012 AB4AR Season Preview Series is as follows:

Monday- The Lineup
Tuesday- The Rotation
Wednesday- The Bullpen
Thursday- The Bench
Friday- The Prediction and 10 Bold Predictions for the 2012 Yankees

If you missed any of the "Knowns/Unknowns" posts from this week, here they are:

- The Infield, The Outfield, The Rotation, The Bullpen, The Bench

2012 AB4AR Minor League Season Preview: The Lower Levels

With the herd being thinned out through cuts at Major League camp, the Minor League spring training work has gathered pace over the past few weeks.  With Josh Norris releasing the roster breakdowns yesterday, the pictures are becoming more and more clear for each level of the Yankee farm system, at least to start the season, which makes it as good a time as any to take care of the season previews for each team.  We'll start with the lower levels, the rookie GCL, Short Season Staten Island, and Low-A Charleston, today and finish with the upper levels tomorrow.

Rookie Gulf Coast League Yankees

The majority of this roster will be filled out by 2012 draft picks, but there are a few names already in the system worth keeping an eye on for the GCL Yankees, including pitchers Jordan Cote and Hayden Sharp.  Some of the Yankees' recent international signings could also make their American professional debuts in the GCL this year, but the most interesting possibility could be Rafael DePaula, the 21-year-old right hander who finally got his US work visa and began his Yankee career with a bullpen session and simulated game this week.  He's got great stuff and an easy release, and talent-wise is probably well suited for a full-season A-ball league.  But with the Yankees having seen very little of him, they could decide to be cautious and send him to the GCL club or Staten Island after he completes his work in Extended Spring Training.

Short Season Staten Island Yankees

The biggest name amongst the group here will be Ravel Santana, still working his way back from the bad ankle injury that prematurely ended his 2011 debut season.  If he shows no lingering effects of the injury and produces similar to how he was last season, he could be promoted quickly, but there's no reason for the Yankees to rush him.  There is a lot of talent around Santana in the lineup, mainly guys drafted last season who didn't get the promotion to a full-season league like Dante Bichette, Jr. did such as catcher Greg Bird, third baseman Matt Duran, and outfielder Jake Cave.  It will be interesting to see how Bird's playing time is managed with 20-year-old Isaias Tejada and his .443 wOBA from the GCL last season also in the fold.

Up the middle, Staten Island has a pair of prospects who don't get the ink that other Yankee IF prospects do but are definitely worth keeping an eye on in Claudio Custodio and Jose Rosario.  On the mound, the staff will be led by Gabe Encinas and Evan Rutckyj, two names I had just off my AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list, as well as right-handed Taylor Morton.  Rookie Davis and Daniel Camarena are 2 other names to remember.

Low-A Charleston River Dogs

If you're a prospect hugger then this is where the majority of your attention will be this year.  The River Dogs lineup could sub for a Low-A All Star team minus a few spots, with Gary Sanchez returning to start the season in Charleston as the catcher and Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams making their full-season debuts at third base and center field respectively.  It will be interesting to see how long Sanchez stays at this level before getting bumped up to Tampa, especially with the Bird-Tejada logjam behind him.  Williams will be flanked by sleeper prospect Ben Gamel in left field and converted third baseman Tyler Austin and his bag of tools in right.  If my biggest mistake in my Top 30 wasn't having Austin all the way down at 30, it might have been leaving second baseman Angelo Gumbs off the list altogether.  He and Cito Culver round out the collection of talented names in the lineup as they look to continue to progress towards becoming the Yankees' double play combo of the future.

On the mound, the stars of the show will be righties Bryan Mitchell, making the jump to a full-season league after 2 years in the system, and Jose Campos, the other piece acquired in the Monter-Pineda trade in January.  Unfortunately, Josh Norris has Evan DeLuca and Matt Tracy penciled in for rehab work to start the season, but eventually both of them should join Mitchell and Campos to make a very talented rotation.  Out of the bullpen, Phil Wetherall and Caleb Cotham are the 2 big names to watch, and don't sleep on Mariel Checo and his stuff.

** Coming up tomorrow- previews for High-A Tampa, Double-A Trenton, and Triple-A Empire State. **

Pineda To The DL With Shoulder Inflammation

(Courtesy of The AP)

Somehow I don't think this is what Cash had in mind when he made the big trade back in January to bring Michael Pineda to the Bronx.  After a spring full of questions and storylines about Pineda's physical condition and velocity, everything came to a head last night when he failed to make it out of the 3rd inning in his final ST start, allowing 6 earned runs on 10 combined hits and walks and then complaining of soreness in his right shoulder.  Pineda was scheduled for an MRI this morning and multiple beat guys are reporting that the MRI revealed inflammation in the right shoulder.  Now, instead of being the team's #2 starter behind CC, the scenario that Cash and the entire organization surely envisioned when they pulled the trigger on the trade, Pineda will open the season on the DL.

There are already multiple theories coming out on why this happened.  Pineda reportedly didn't work out at all over the winter and came into camp overweight, which certainly could have explained the diminished velocity all spring.  He could have been using spring camp to pitch himself into shape, and Joe commented last night after the game that Pineda's mechanics were different last night, suggesting he was trying to overthrow to add velocity.  Both Cash and Joe said last night that they have asked Pineda multiple times during ST if his arm felt alright and every time he said it was fine, until last night.  There's no way to know for sure how long his shoulder had been bothering him, but it's not unreasonable to think that Pineda was trying to push through the injury knowing he was in a competition for a rotation spot this spring.

To be honest, I really don't know how I feel about all of this right now.  I've been one of the biggest Pineda supporters this spring, constantly banging the "don't worry about his velocity, he's pitching fine" drum and preaching patience with the kid and now this happens.  All the comparisons to Phil Hughes' 2011 that I've been trying to brush aside now look far more realistic and I can't help but question if this entire season will end up being a wash for Pineda much like 2011 was for Hughes.

I'm surprised that the Yankees didn't do their due diligence in checking on what Pineda had been doing during the offseason to prepare when they were discussing the trade, and would be even more surprised if they did check and still decided to make the trade anyway.  That would go against everything the organization stands for when evaluating players.  At the same time, I'm relieved that all the MRI showed was inflammation, and Pineda will only be on the 15-day DL instead of the 60-day.  At his age, and with his upside, this is not the end of the world and the Yankees can still come out in the positive on the trade if Pineda can fully recover and get in better shape.

No matter where you stood on Pineda this spring, almost everybody was in agreement that the Yankees' surplus of pitching depth was a good problem to have and this latest development proves why.  They lose a potentially dominant piece of the rotation but are still covered with CC, Kuroda, Nova, Hughes, and Freddy to open the season, with Andy waiting in the wings.  That being said, it's still disappointing that a trade for what should have been a #2 starter and key piece of the rotation for the long-term future has resulted in these negative early returns.

Friday Afternoon "One Week 'Til Opening Day" Linkapalooza: 3/30

We're one week away from Yankees Opening Day, people.  This time next week we can put aside the talk of velocity, platoons, injury concerns, and roster battles and just kick back and watch some baseball, which is awesome.  I still have to figure out how I'm going to watch the game, since I'm a cheapskate and don't have any kind of MLB viewing package on my TV or computer.  But at least I won't have to miss the game because I'm stuck at work.  Good Friday indeed!  Onto the links.

- On Monday, Ran Shulman of Yanks Go Yard welcomed D-Rob back to the bullpen by giving a refresher course on just how nasty Robertson was in 2011 and how valuable he is for 2012.

- On Tuesday, Rebel Yankee Chick flirted with the Dark Side by taking the Fenway Paahhk tou-ah.  She gave it a positive review.

- Trevor Wolff of Sliding Into Home posted a friendly reminder to not dismiss the Yankees' relief pitching prospects.  Given how good some of them have been early in their careers, I would have to agree with Trevor.

- Rob Steingall of Pinstripe Alley offered up his picks for prospects he'll be keeping a close watch on this season, and I commend him for picking guys outside the normal group.

- Joe Pawlikowski of RAB debated whether the Yankees should trade or hold some of their players who have been drawing interest from other teams, specifically Freddy, Ramiro Pena, and Justin Maxwell.

- On Wednesday, Bryan V of The Greedy Pinstripes explained why he feels Russell Martin is the most important player in the Yankee lineup, at least from a health standpoint.  I can buy that.

- Greg Corcoran of Bronx Baseball Daily scoured the Yankees' MiL affiliates to identify the players who he thinks could be fast risers through the system this season.

- Matt Filippi of Beyond the Box Score offered his 2012 season preview for the Yankees, touching on their improved rotation and age concerns in the lineup.

- On Thursday, Jamie Insalaco of Bomber Banter made his 2012 predictions.  He sees rebounds for Hughes and The Horse and another AL East title for the Yankees.

- Hippeaux of IIATMS discussed the trend in baseball of shuffling guys from the bullpen to the rotation, touching on the Yankees' recent following of the trend with Hughes and Joba.

- Fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite looked at the evolution of the Yankees' strategy when building their rotation and the shift to focusing more on homegrown pitching talent.

- Dave Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweet Spot set the over/under for Yankee wins at 93.5 and inquired about their ability to reach 100.  I'm not sure about 100, but I would definitely take the over on 93.5.

- Today, Mike Eder of TYA crunched the numbers on Teix's ST at-bats to show just how much he's focused on hitting the other way from the left side.  Hopefully that carries over to the regular season and translates into an overall improvement in his stats.

- Mike did the same thing on Wednesday with Phil Hughes' batted ball profile to show the improvements in Hughes' game this spring.

For the Friday Jam, I'm going back to my middle school days with some Orgy.  They've recently reformed, although lead singer Jay Gordon is the only original member still involved, but they're still pretty badass.  I remember being 13 years old when their "Blue Monday" cover started to become popular and thinking I was the coolest cat on the block because I bought a CD called "Candyass" by a band named "Orgy."  Hell, I'm 26 now and I still think it's cool that the band is called "Orgy."  I don't think it came with a parental advisory sticker, but I definitely hid it from my folks for a while.  I was such a loser back then.  Anyway, if you're somehow still an Orgy fan like I am, you'll appreciate this one from 1999.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Bench*)

(Frankie breaks out his best chicken dance.  Courtesy of The AP)

* I'm including Russell Martin in this group simply because I'm an idiot and didn't remember to include him in the infield post on Monday.  I'm also lumping Ibanez into the bench group as a platoon player, even though he will be the starting DH.

What We Know- Russell Martin is Playing for a Contract

Russell resurrected his career last season in his first year in pinstripes.  He played in 125 games, hit 18 HR, posted a .325 wOBA, made the All Star Game, and played all-around solid defense behind the plate.  That being said, he did only hit .237 and didn't contribute much in the Yankees' ALDS loss to Detroit, so the Yankees weren't quite convinced that he was back and only gave him a 1-year deal this year.  At 29, Martin is right smack in the middle of his prime years and will be one of the top catchers available on the free agent market after this season.  He got in great shape again in the offseason to prepare himself for a big year, and if he has one chances are he'll be brought back by the Yankees on a 3-4-year deal.  If they decide they don't want to bring him back, or can't afford to, some other team will definitely be in the market for his services.

What We Don't Know- Whether That Will Impact Cervelli's Playing Time

Martin knows he needs to be on the field to showcase his skills and earn himself that new contract, so he's going to be pushing to play as much as possible.  Playing the catcher position, it's a sure thing that he's going to get banged up at some point, and chances are he will try to play through the pain.  What Joe will need to decide is how often he wants to let Martin do that as the season progresses and the bumps and bruises start to pile up.  Francisco Cervelli is once again lined up to be Martin's backup behind the plate and we know what he is at this point.  He can hit a little bit here and there and he won't embarrass himself defensively, but when Martin is healthy and at his best there isn't anything that Cervelli can do better than him.  130-135 games for Martin would be good, with Cervelli catching the rest.

More after the jump

Will There Be Any Friday Funny Business Today?

2 weeks ago Friday it was Andy's comeback.  Last Friday it was Joba's failed attempt to be an Olympic gymnast.  So what's in store for us today?

I'm almost scared to check LoHud for news updates.  I'm afraid it's going to be something like Larry Rothschild getting kidnapped by Colombian drug lords or Curtis Granderson suddenly going blind.  Hopefully it can just be a nice calm day and we can continue to talk about finalizing the rotation order and why Michael Pineda isn't throwing 200 MPH.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Bullpen)

(Best in the world.  Courtesy of The AP)

Infield's done, outfield's done, rotation's done.  Now onto the relief corp.

What We Know- The Bullpen Pecking Order

The merits of having defined roles in the bullpen can be argued, but that's the way Joe operates and those roles for 2012, at least heading into the start of the season, are pretty well set.  Mariano Rivera is the closer and official 9th Inning Guy, and only injury or the end of the world will change that.  Behind him, Dave Robertson will be the setup man and official 8th Inning Guy after his dominant 2011 season and Rafael Soriano will slot into the 7th inning role.  Boone Logan will retain his spot as top lefty ace, although Joe has talked about expanding his role if the Yankees decide to carry a 2nd lefty.  Cory Wade is in place as the Middle Inning Relief Guy and the loser of the 5th starter competition, most likely Freddy Garcia, will be the long man.

What We Don't Know- How Quickly It Will Become Subject to Change

Mo is set in stone, but behind him there is always opportunity for change and that change could come pretty early.  D-Rob certainly earned the right to hold the setup role this season after the way he pitched last year, but he's had very little time on the mound this spring thanks to his foot injury and could get off to shaky start if he's still working the kinks out.  His history of wildness and Soriano's big contract could lead to a swap of spots if Robertson is ineffective.  Cory Wade, who has struggled this spring and likely would have been the first out of a job when Joba or David Aardsma returned in the summer, should also be on notice.  Even Freddy could get forced out of his spot when Andy returns and kicks someone from the rotation into the bullpen.

More after the jump