Filling Out The Back End Of The Bullpen

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There's no denying that the Yankees have done a helluva lot of work to reload their team this offseason.  They've spent over half a billion dollars in contracts, both in large amounts and small, to upgrade their rotation, lineup, and to a very small degree their bench.  One roster area that hasn't harvested the fruits of that half-billion dollar labor is the bullpen.  To date, the Yankees' only addition of significance to the 2014 'pen has been Matt Thornton, a 37-year-old lefty specialist who, while still effective against same-side hitters, is at the point in his career where his best days are behind him.

This singular signing in response to the loss of Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, and some guy named Mariano Rivera has put the Yankee 'pen in a state of uncertainty, one that the free agent market is no longer as well equipped to resolve as it was a few weeks ago.  As we move below the 3-week threshold until pitchers and catchers report to spring camp, it's time to look at what the Yankees could do to fill out and fortify their bullpen.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Those We've Lost

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

I thought there was high turnover from the first Top 30 to last year's when 9 new players made the cut.  From last year to this year the turnover was even higher, 13 players to be exact.  That's almost half of last year's list gone and replaced by new faces.  That seemed high to me at first, but when I considered all the factors that led to the high turnover rate it's not as drastic as it seems.

There are a handful of players no longer eligible for this year's list because they're on other teams and there were multiple players who were no longer eligible due to Major League service time in 2013.  When you eliminate them, the number of guys who dropped off due to age and/or subpar production this year is reasonable.  When you consider the influx of young talent that joined the system this year in the form of 3 1st round picks and a healthy collection of young international players, the higher turnover becomes more than reasonable.  After the jump, the 13 players who, for a number of reasons, won't be appearing on the 2013-2014 Top 30.

Yanks Not Well Repped In Latest Top Prospect Lists

The big dogs of the baseball scouting world are releasing their annual top MLB prospects lists and so far it's been a disappointing showing for the Yankees.  On Friday, they landed 2 on MLB.com's Top 100 for 2014.  Gary Sanchez was ranked 47th after being 27th on the 2013 list, and Mason Williams was ranked 75th after being 37th the previous year.

Today it's Baseball Prospectus unveiling their Top 101 for 2014 and the Yankee representation is even slimmer.  Just 1, Sanchez, coming in 85th.  Regardless of how you feel about the Yankee system or prospects in general, that's not good.  It speaks both to the lack of top tier talent currently in the Yankee system and the generally "blah" year that most of their top guys had.  The good news?  They still have a bunch of players with top 100 upside.  Just need them to start playing like it.

Welcome To AB4AR Prospect Week 2014

(The original #1.  The Jesus)

In late December of 2011, I was home for Christmas and bored at my parents' house during the week so I decided to put together my first top Yankee prospects list.  The inaugural AB4AR Top 30 admittedly wasn't very good, but going through the process of doing it opened my eyes to the world of prospect evaluation and I think it made me much smarter about how I follow and rank prospects.

Which brings us to today, the start of AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 and the unveiling of the 3rd edition of the AB4AR Top 30.  If you followed Prospect Week last year, you know that the format has already been changed a little bit but the overall format for the next 5 days will stay the same.  Today I'll go back and look at all the players from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who didn't make the 2013-2014 edition, tomorrow I'll focus on the players who just missed the cut this year, and Wednesday through Friday will be the actual release of this year's Top 30 in 10-player chunks.

If you're not familiar with AB4AR or my prospect evaluation process, I invite you to read this post I did last year explaining my system.  Long story short, I tend to value consistent production and advancement through the system more than just raw tools and high ceiling.  I also think there's more value in a lower ceiling player at a higher level of the system than a "toolsy" 17 or 18-year-old in rookie ball, especially when that player plays a position of need for the Major League club.  To further familiarize yourself with the AB4AR system, feel free to check out last year's AB4AR Top 30 as well.

Time permitting this week, I'll try to work on some posts on player tools and who I think has the best in the system but the real focus is the 5 major posts mentioned above.  Check back this afternoon for the first one on the group of players who fell off this year's Top 30 and welcome again one and all to AB4AR Prospect Week.

"Not A Prospect Yet" Player Profile Wrap-Up

Tomorrow's the big day.  AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 kicks off with a look at the players from last year's list who dropped off the 2013-2014 edition.  Before we get to that, I wanted to take a quick look back at the players I've profiled over the last 2 weeks.  These are the guys knocking on the door to the prospect party, and if they all have strong seasons in 2014 I'm confident that all 4 will be a part of the 2014-2015 AB4AR Top 30.  If you missed any of those profiles, here's your chance to catch up.

- Jake Cave

- Dietrich Enns

- Thairo Estrada

- Omar Luis Rodriguez

Should The Yankees Sign Stephen Drew?

It's a question that's been going around a lot this week.  With all the conflicting reports on the Yankees' interest in Drew and his interest in the Yankees, it's hard to know where the truth lies either way.  The need is obviously there from the Yankees' standpoint.  Their infield is currently the biggest weakness on the roster, and Drew would help fix some of those cracks.

The short answer is yes, they should.  Drew would be at worst as good a starting third base option as Kelly Johnson, and he would allow the Yanks to move Johnson over to second base, his better position.  He could be injury insurance for Derek Jeter at short this season and slide in and take over the job for a year or 2 after Jeter retires.  He's not too old, his left-handed swing would play well in YS3, and it wouldn't take crazy money or years to get him.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Omar Luis Rodriguez

(Photo courtesy of Eddie Michels)

It's a mere 2 days until the start of AB4AR Prospect Week 2014.  It's right there, folks.  You can almost reach out and touch it (you can't).  As another lead-in to that magical week, let's look at yet another young player in the Yankee system who's making some noise but not enough to crack this year's AB4AR Top 30.  We went international on Tuesday and we're staying there today.  This time, however, we're stepping it up from the small money surprise signings and focusing on Cuban pitcher Omar Luis Rodriguez, the last big signing bonus swing the Yankees took before the new international spending rules were put into effect in 2012.

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/24/14

The next person who talks about how KUH-RAYZEEEEEEEEE cold it is outside is getting punched right in the throat. I don't care if it's a 5-year-old girl. POW!! Sorry, sweetheart. You just got Vietro'd. It's bad enough that the social media explosion has made everybody think they need to announce everything they're doing in their lives at all times, but it's even worse when that extends to mindless commentary on things as basic and trivial as the weather. Yes, it gets cold in the winter. I'm aware. You should be too. This is not a new phenomena. Stop Instagramming screenshots of the wind chill from your phone and get on with your life. By the way, it's going to be negative degrees in Wisco all day next Monday and Tuesday. That throat punch threat probably won't last much past 7:30 Monday morning. Now onto the links!

- On Monday, Chad Jennings of LoHud commented on how much Derek Jeter has to prove this year after what happened last season and all that's gone down this offseason.

- EJ Fagan of IIATMS/TYA listed his top 10 international Yankee prospects.  Looking forward to seeing what Molina, Rodriguez, and Palma do this year.

- On Tuesday, Greg Corcoran of Bronx Baseball Daily profiled burgeoning pitching prospect Shane Greene, who could start to sneak into the spot start candidate discussion before too long if he starts the season in Triple-A.

- Mike Axisa of RAB reminded everybody how important CC Sabathia is to the Yankees this year and how he might be able to fix the problems that dogged him last season.

- On Wednesday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog questioned what the Yankees bailing on the luxury tax avoidance payroll plan means for their true payroll goals and commitment to winning moving forward.

- SJK of NoMaas praised the front office for putting their money where this mouth is this offseason while also questioning why the lame attempt to trim payroll in 2013 even happened in the first place.  Fair question that I still need time to digest before addressing.

- Jonathan Aron of Yanks Go Yard mused on what this coming season has in store for Brett Gardner now that he's changing roles again.

- On Thursday, Roberto E. Alejandro of Respect Jeter's Gangster asked the most important Tanaka-related question that nobody has asked yet.

- SG of RLYW put Tanaka under the CAIRO projection microscope to set an appropriate level of expectation for 2014.

- Jason Cohen of Pinstripe Alley introduced his plan for how to fix the Yankee farm system.

- On Friday, Derek Albin of Pinstripe Pundits took to the ZiPS projections to see how fair the Tanaka contract is.

- El duque of It Is High... argued for why the Yankees should go ahead and sign Stephen Drew.  Part of me thinks Drew is waiting because he wants to come here.  Most of me thinks it's just Boras dangling the Yankee threat to force Boston's hand.

- Daniel Burch of The Greedy Pinstripes suggested taking an Andy Pettitte-esque workload approach to Hiroki Kuroda next year to help keep him fresh later in the season.

Little throwback action for this Friday's jam, a little "You've Got Another Thing Comin'" by Judas Priest.  Classic heavy metal song.  If you think you like metal and you don't like this song, you simply do not like metal.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

Let's Talk About Some More Prospects

(Courtesy of Brad Penner/USA Today Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA.  Reminder that AB4AR Prospect Week starts on Monday)

The Masahiro Tanaka signing storm has calmed down a bit, things are getting back to normal in Yankeeland, and we're exactly 3 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.  Obviously that means it's time to talk about prospects again.  The Yankee Minor League complex in Tampa is open and there are already a handful of top guys down there getting ready for the season, plus I'm releasing my yearly top 30 prospects list next week.  Timing couldn't be better.  Last time I rattled guys off the top of my head who I had already labeled.  This time it wasn't so easy.  Probably the most mental energy I'm going to exert today.

Tanaka's First Post-Signing Meeting With The Media

(Courtesy of the AP)

Masahiro Tanaka held a press conference with the Japanese media yesterday to issue his first public comments since signing a 7-year/$155 million deal with the Yankees.  The AP had the details of the presser, but here's the money quote:

“I’m going there to win the World Series.  I can’t wait to get to the pitcher’s mound at Yankees Stadium.”

And we can't wait to see you out there, Tanaka-san.  I think you and I are going to get along just fine.

Oh Really... ?

Via Jon Heyman:

"The Yankees are now considering free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew, which could potentially put another dent in the rival Red Sox's up-the-middle alignment only weeks after the Yankees signed Boston star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury."

Huh.  That's interesting.  I thought the Yankees were done spending.

Masahiro Tanaka Signing Thoughts & Afterthoughts

(Courtesy of Mike Eder/IIATMS/TYA)

For a while there it didn't look like Masahiro Tanaka was even going to be posted.  The dragging out of the new NPB posting rules put his availability and the Yankees' plan to upgrade their rotation in jeopardy.  When he finally was posted it looked for a time like maybe the Yankees weren't going to win the competition for him.  Every day for the last week or so there has been a new team that was reported to be the favorite for Tanaka.  Last week it was the D'backs, Monday it was the Dodgers, and Tuesday, the night before the reported soft deadline set by Tanaka and his agent to make their decision, it was the Cubs.

Once again though, the reputation, history, and checkbook of the Yankees overcame all and was the deciding factor in Tanaka's choice.  The time and effort the Yankees put into scouting and targeting Tanaka as their true #1 free agent target paid off and in the end the Yankees got their man.  Their rotation has the jolt it needed, the last piece of their offseason puzzle is in place, and the Yanks are once again at the top of the conversation regarding AL contenders.  After the jump, my take on the signing and what it means for Tanaka and the Yanks going forward.

Reconsidering The Yankee Rotation With Tanaka

(Courtesy of MLB's Twitter feed)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Before the news of the Masahiro Tanaka signing came out yesterday morning, the Yankee rotation was in big trouble.  At least that's the spin that was being put on the majority of the conversations, reports, and blog posts around the Yankosphere.  CC Sabathia was coming off a terrible year and was going to be another year older with no indication that he could ever rebound to become a good pitcher again.  Hiroki Kuroda was also going to be another year older and potentially ready to break down and regress after a poor second half in 2013.  Ivan Nova was a big, inconsistent question mark, Michael Pineda was an even bigger question mark in bold font who might never be a starter again, and the rest of the 5th starter competition contingent was nothing special.  There was no way the Yankees were going to compete for anything with that crew.

Hal Names D-Rob The Closer, Scores Another Point With Me

(From fireman to chief of the house.)

On any other day, this would have been bigger news.  When Masahiro Tanaka signs a 7-year deal worth over $22 mil a year, it gets swallowed up in the wake.  While commenting on the Tanaka signing and the team's plans for the remainder of the offseason, Hal made the first public declaration that David Robertson will indeed be the Yankee closer this season.  Via Joel Sherman:

“I have a lot of confidence in Robertson and so does Joe. Robertson is going to be our closer, and I believe he will do a good job."

Now whether Hal has the final say to make that call or if he discussed it beforehand with Cash and/or Joe, I don't know.  What I do know is that it's the right decision and I support it 100%.  I've been saying for a long time now that D-Rob is the man for the job and the team should commit to him and props to Hal for finally manning up and doing it.  I swear it's like the guy reads this site and is trying to change my opinion of him.  Now somebody hit the music!

What Could A-Rod Have Done For The Yankees This Season?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Barring a highly improbable decision by the federal courts, Alex Rodriguez will not play a single Major League game this season for the Yankees or any other team.  His playing career as we know it looks like it could be over and if he does try to come back in 2015 he may be on the receiving end of a beanball targeting that would make what Ryan Dempster did last August look like a walk in the park.

While the Yankees know that A-Rod will not be their starting third baseman this season, they've still yet to figure out who will be.  We know that they're bringing a small army of replacement level competitors to Spring Training.  The most likely scenario is that 2 of those players split time at the hot corner as part of a replacement platoon, at least until one of them gets hurt or sucks so badly that someone else needs to replace him.  It's a risky strategic decision given how much money the Yankees have spent to upgrade the rest of their lineup this offseason, and one that could backfire if they're unable to get consistent production and value out of the position.

Yanks Officially Announce Tanaka Signing

Yokoso Masahiro! Tanaka officially signed a seven-year contract with the Yankees today.
— Yankees PR Dept. (@YankeesPR) January 22, 2014

There you have it.  The Yankees have officially announced the deal so any last doubts that may have lingered about it can be put to rest.  Multiple beat guys have confirmed that lefty David Huff has been DFA'd to clear a roster spot, and since we already know that the Yanks aren't going to conduct a second physical on Tanaka all that's left to speculate on is his jersey number.

Kudos to the Yankees for coming out on top of this and making all the effort they put in on scouting Tanaka worthwhile.  I know there were some doubts out there about whether or not he'd sign with them, but the allure of the playing in pinstripes is clearly still alive and well.  I'll have more thoughts on the deal and what it means for Tanaka and the Yanks moving forward tomorrow.

BREAKING NEWS: Yanks Sign Masahiro Tanaka To A 7-Year Deal (UPDATED)

(Courtesy of the AP)

Reports were that we'd find out by the end of today who Masahiro Tanaka would choose to sign with, and per Ken Rosenthal that team is the Yankees.

According to Rosenthal, the Yankees and Tanaka have agreed to a 7-year/$155 million contract.  The deal includes an opt-out clause after the 4th year.

This was the big move the Yankees wanted and needed to make to upgrade their starting rotation for this season and the future.  They paid a hefty ransom for Tanaka, including the $20 million posting fee they'll now have to send to the Rakuten Golden Eagles, but that's what it was going to take once the new posting rules were put into effect.  More on this story as it comes out.

** UPDATE 8:50 AM- Joel Sherman has confirmed Rosenthal's report.  Sounds like this is legit. **

** UPDATE 8:58 AM- Deal has been confirmed by a slew of other Yankee beat guys.  For the sake of conversation, the $155 mil is the 5th highest contract for a pitcher in MLB history in terms of total dollars.  Yanks weren't kidding when they said they were going all in to get him. **

Wednesday Morning Food For Thought: Brian Roberts' Playing Time

Joe announced recently that he sees newest Yankee Brian Roberts as the everyday second baseman this season.  Those were bold words when talking about a guy who hasn't played in triple digit games since 2009 and has played in fewer than 200 total in the last 4 seasons.  Roberts' career has been completely derailed by injury problems and players who start getting hurt all the time in their early 30s generally don't stop getting hurt when they turn 36.  Roberts was a guest on "Yankees Hot Stove" last night and he commented on his expectations relative to playing time for the upcoming season:

“I’m excited for the opportunity.  My goal is just to come in and try and play as many games as they want me to be able play, and obviously help us get to where we want as an organization.”

Roberts said he was healthy and felt good and was ready to go, but the phrasing of "try and play as many games as they want me to be able play" leaves me feeling a little skittish.  I'm all for seeing what Roberts is capable of now that he's healthy, even though I don't expect it to be much.  I'm not too keen on the idea of running him out there every day until he breaks down and leaving the team with another roster hole to fill.  It's OK to want Roberts to play every day and hope that he can.  It's not OK to expect him to or anticipate that he will.

Report: Teix Still Feeling Stiffness In His Wrist

The Yankees needing a healthy and productive Mark Teixeira in 2014 is a point that no longer needs to be made.  We know how important he is and how valuable he can be when he's healthy, and we don't know how healthy or productive he'll be this season at age 34.  The uncertainty surrounding the last part of that sentence is going to remain until we see him on the field again playing every day, and the latest news on his rehab from wrist surgery doesn't read as encouraging.

According to a report by Bryan Hoch yesterday, Teix is still feeling some stiffness in the surgically-repaired wrist.  He's been continuing his strengthening exercises and has graduated to hitting off a tee recently, but he's still looking at February for live batting practice and an early March date for returning to game action.

That Teix is going to miss the first week of ST games hardly comes as a concern if you remember back to his "Yankees Hot Stove" appearance in November.  That his wrist is still feeling stiffness and discomfort does come as a concern considering how early in his "baseball activity" rehab schedule he is.  If the wrist is stiffening up on him during tee time, how's it going to respond when he starts taking real BP?  How's it going to feel when he starts playing in games and hitting and throwing regularly every day?

Teix himself could only offer an "I hope so" when asked if he'll be 100% physically by Opening Day.  Having seen what happened with The Captain last year when he tried to push for an unrealistic Opening Day return date, the Yankees need to closely monitor Teix and how his wrist is feeling when spring camp starts.  No sense in pushing it if he's not ready.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Thairo Estrada

(Courtesy of Baseball America)

We're now less than a calendar week from Prospect Week 2014.  To continue to whet your appetite and build anticipation towards what I'm sure will be the highlight of your 2014 (or at least your January 2014), it's time to take another look at a young player in the Yankee system who's just starting to scratch the surface of his prospect potential.

Changing it up a bit from the recent MLB draftees and going international today, back to the 2012 international free agent class when the Yankees flexed their monetary muscle for the final time before the new international spending pool limits were put into place.  Hidden beneath the higher-profile signings of that summer was a 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop named Thairo Estrada.  He signed for relative chump and didn't draw a lot of interest or positive commentary from scouts, but his 2013 performance definitely turned a few heads.

Thinking About The Potential DH Carousel

(Not pictured: the Yankees DHs.  Courtesy of Richard Walker)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

We're less than 4 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, so baseball is officially out there on the horizon.  When that Friday comes, baseball will officially be back and a few days later when the rest of the team arrives at the Tampa complex Spring Training 2014 will be fully underway.  As usual, there will be a handful of roster battles that will dominate the ST headlines, highlighted by the annual 5th starter competition.  A bench job or 2 will be up for grabs, as will some bullpen roles, possibly the closer role if the Yanks do end up signing another veteran late-inning reliever, and the third base platoon jobs.

One spot that won't be up for competition this year is designated hitter.  The older and injury risky Yankees have more candidates for the DH spot than ever this season and will most likely be rotating a large cast of veteran characters through it in an attempt to keep everybody as well-rested and healthy as possible.  How that rotation is going to work and what players get the most time in the DH spot remains to be seen, and managing that rotation will be among the most daunting tasks on Joe's plate this season.

Yanks To Get Aggressive With 2013 1st Rounders?

(Courtesy of somebody)

This almost slipped through the cracks last week, but with AB4AR Prospect Week right around the corner I figured I had to swing back and address it.  VP of player ops Mark Newman spoke to the media last week on a wide range of prospect-related topics.  Most of it was updates on players' health and confirming whether or not guys would be ready to start the season, standard stuff.  The one interesting bit of news was related to the plan for 2013 1st rounders Eric Jagielo and Aaron Judge this season.  According to Newman, the Yankees could start both of them at High-A Tampa this year, and if not, there's a very good chance both at least start in Low-A Charleston.

I'm Back, Doesn't Look Like I Missed Much

I'm back from my extended Chicago weekend.  If you're wondering, yes, the Blackhawks game was outstanding.  The United Center is a great place to watch any sporting event, Hawks crowds are always good, and watching Patrick Kane play hockey live is a real treat.

I'd like to thank the Yankees and the rest of MLB for not doing anything major while I was gone the last 2 days.  We still don't have a resolution in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes with just a handful of days remaining for him to sign.  Far as I can tell, this is all I missed:

- The Yanks are unsurprisingly still looking for another late-inning reliever, according to Joel Sherman.  They continue to show little to no interest in Grant Balfour or anybody else available on the FA market.

- 6 teams have officially submitted offers to Tanaka, and all 6 of them were for at least 6 years/$100 million.  I expect the Yankees were on the higher end of the spectrum and I still think they end up getting Tanaka sometime in the next 2 days.

- Biggest on-field news was Derek Jeter getting back onto the field today as planned.  According to the AP, he took swings off a tee in the batting cage and took 108 grounders on the inner infield grass at the team's Tampa complex.

Jeter Says He's Been Working Out For 2 Months, Confirms What I Most Feared About Last Offseason & Already Knew About His Medical Skills

 

(Courtesy of the AP)

Saw the highlights of Derek Jeter's MLB Network interview over on LoHud this morning and his comments on his offseason workout status stood out the most to me, for obvious reasons:

“I feel good. It’s been a good offseason. Last year at this point, literally I’d just come out of the boot. I’ve been working hard since the beginning of November. … I don’t know if I learned anything (from last season), I just had more time. It’s my fault. Look, I rushed to get back. I wanted to be back. I set the goal for Opening Day. I don’t know how real that goal was, but set it, and it’s my fault. I really didn’t have enough time, or I didn’t take enough time. I wasn’t careful like I should have been.”

Couple of things here, one good and the other not so good.

Arbitration Avoidance Wrap-Up

Yesterday was the deadline to submit contract figures or accept a deal to avoid contract arbitration, and as expected all 5 of the Yankees' arbitration-eligible players agreed to new deals before the deadline.  Joel Sherman was the first to report most of the signings, and if you missed any of them yesterday here's how the new deals broke down.

• David Robertson- 1 year/$5.125 million
• Brett Gardner- 1 year/$5.6 million
• Shawn Kelley- 1 year/$1.7625 million
• Ivan Nova- 1 year/$3.3 million
• Francisco Cervelli- 1 year/$700,000

The higher values than what was projected for guys like Gardner and Nova puts the Yankees right up against the $189 million LT threshold.  With the starting rotation still needing an arm or 2 added to it, I think it's safe to say that the Yankees won't get under the threshold this year.