A little over a week ago, Jim Callis of Baseball America released his personal top 10 list of best MiL systems in baseball, with the Yankees just missing the cut and coming in 11th place. It was confirmed at that time that Callis' 3 fellow BA rankers also had the Yankees 11th, painting a pretty encouraging picture, to me at least, about the state of the Yankee system after a very uneven 2012. Recently, Chad Jennings of LoHud caught up with Callis and spoke to him in greater detail about his thoughts on the Yankee system, where he felt their strengths and weaknesses were, and what their next step should be. Some quotes from Callis and my personal takes on what he had to say after the jump.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Daniel Camarena
(Courtesy of Perfect Game.org)
If you're a left-handed starting pitcher, you're automatically going to get more attention as a young draft pick/prospect than your right-handed counterparts. It's why I included Vidal Nuno in this year's AB4AR Top 30 over guys like Jose Ramirez and Branden Pinder, and why Matt Tracy was the focus of the first "Not A Prospect Yet" post this week. Daniel Camarena, despite not making any kind of noise in this year's Top 30, is an even more intriguing potential prospect than Nuno or Tracy because of his status as a young, high school pitcher. Camarena is fresh off his 20th birthday in November, and even with an extremely small 2012 sample size to evaluate, is the type of pitcher who could quickly make his way onto next year's Top 30.
Thoughts On The Arbitration Avoidance Contracts
The Yankees and D-Rob each submitted their arbitration salary figures yesterday, starting what could be the only arbitration situation New York enters this offseason. Their other 3 remaining arbitration-eligible players all signed 1-year deals this week, the final ones they'll sign before all 3 become free agents next offseason. How do all those deals look? Glad you asked.
Joba Chamberlain- 1 year/$1.875 million. Good for Joba getting a raise after 2 straight injury-shortened season, and given his tenure and likely status as the pitcher next in line behind D-Rob for the setup role with Soriano gone, I think it's a fair deal.
Boone Logan- 1 year/$3.15 million. A significant hike from the $1.875 he made in 2012, but understandable given the very good body of work he's had in a Yankee uniform and the importance the LOOGY role has taken on in the past few seasons. A jump to over $3 mil in his final arb year should set Logan up nicely for life on the open market in 2014, and I think now the Yanks are much more likely to let him walk than try to bring him back on a multi-year deal for that kind of money.
Phil Hughes- 1 year/$7.15 million. I'm a little surprised this number was so high for Hughes. He had 1 slightly above-average year as a starter at league minimum in 2010, 1 below-average year at $2.7 mil in 2011, and another slightly above-average year at $3.2 mil in 2012. I said I thought Hughes was going to be valuable as the only under-30 starting pitcher on the market next offseason, and the Yankees may have just helped usher him out the door with this $7+ mil deal. If Hughes pitches better than he did in 2012 this season, he's going to be looking at offers of $10 mil per easily.
Joba Chamberlain- 1 year/$1.875 million. Good for Joba getting a raise after 2 straight injury-shortened season, and given his tenure and likely status as the pitcher next in line behind D-Rob for the setup role with Soriano gone, I think it's a fair deal.
Boone Logan- 1 year/$3.15 million. A significant hike from the $1.875 he made in 2012, but understandable given the very good body of work he's had in a Yankee uniform and the importance the LOOGY role has taken on in the past few seasons. A jump to over $3 mil in his final arb year should set Logan up nicely for life on the open market in 2014, and I think now the Yanks are much more likely to let him walk than try to bring him back on a multi-year deal for that kind of money.
Phil Hughes- 1 year/$7.15 million. I'm a little surprised this number was so high for Hughes. He had 1 slightly above-average year as a starter at league minimum in 2010, 1 below-average year at $2.7 mil in 2011, and another slightly above-average year at $3.2 mil in 2012. I said I thought Hughes was going to be valuable as the only under-30 starting pitcher on the market next offseason, and the Yankees may have just helped usher him out the door with this $7+ mil deal. If Hughes pitches better than he did in 2012 this season, he's going to be looking at offers of $10 mil per easily.
Friday, January 18, 2013
Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/18/13
I can't get enough of this Manti Te'o story. It's one of the sickest/craziest/most hilarious stories I've encountered in my lifetime and I absolutely cannot stop reading and talking about it. I mean, what a fucking loser. I don't care what the reasons are, being a starting middle linebacker for the most widely-recognized football team in the country and then going through with a plan to create and kill off a fake online girlfriend in an age where there was no way you were going to get away with it is absolute lunacy. It's bizarro world shit of the highest order. And just so we're clear, if you honestly buy this "victim of a cruel joke" excuse that Te'o and Swarbrick are selling, you are a complete moron.
What really gets me, and what I think isn't being given enough attention here, is that he and his little Twitter buddy waited around until his grandmother died in real life to kill off the fake girlfriend. Were they sitting around planning the end date for the fake girlfriend like writers for a TV show? Were they always planning on doing it after the grandma died? Did Manti Te'o WANT his grandma to die just so he could piggyback the dead girlfriend on top of that? I'm a pretty cold, tasteless dude, but that's low even by my standards. Now onto the links!
- Mike Eder of TYA had a pair of great posts on individual hitters' swing mechanic problems. On Monday, he covered A-Rod and his bad hip, and on Tuesday he looked at Kevin Youkilis and his hands.
- On Tuesday, Josh Norris of Minor Matters posted some early details on the Yankees' 2013 MiL Spring Training schedule.
- Greg Cohen of Sliding Into Home got back into the blogging groove by stating that he did not like the idea of Andy Pettitte pitching in the WBC this year. Based on Andy's recent health track record, I'm inclined to agree and am glad he's off the roster.
- Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes put an interesting spin on the "slow offseason" complaint that many have had by looking at the Yankees' activity compared to other teams.
- Alex Pugliese of Yanks Go Yard asked who from the A-Rod-Youkilis pairing made the most sense as the everyday third baseman this season.
- On Wednesday, Mike Axisa of RAB looked at early projections for Derek Jeter based on his ankle injury for 2013 and beyond.
- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog broke down the dollars on Rafael Soriano to determine who was a winner and loser in him opting out of his Yankee contract and signing with Washington.
- On Thursday, Chad Jennings of LoHud discussed Eduardo Nunez's middle-of-nowhere situation and brought up an interesting high-ceiling career comparison.
- El duque of It Is High... is getting tired of waiting for Cash to make his customary January move, and tired of waiting for the kids in A-ball.
- Brien Jackson of IIATMS pointed out the lack of compatability in Hal's "getting under the luxury tax but not being open to extensions" payroll policies.
- On Friday, Steph Bee of Pinstriped Bible mused on the idea of trading Curtis Granderson. It's an idea that almost everybody out there has had come across their mind at some point.
This week's Friday Jam comes from Nine Inch Nails. Trent Reznor is pretty damn boss these days, winning Academy Awards, recording with QOTSA for their new album, and reportedly considering bringing NIN out of retirement. I saw Linkin Park cover this at a concert one time and a bunch of younger mid-teens kids in the crowd had no clue what the song was. That was sad. Those kids should have been slapped.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody. Say hi to your fake internet girlfriends for me.
What really gets me, and what I think isn't being given enough attention here, is that he and his little Twitter buddy waited around until his grandmother died in real life to kill off the fake girlfriend. Were they sitting around planning the end date for the fake girlfriend like writers for a TV show? Were they always planning on doing it after the grandma died? Did Manti Te'o WANT his grandma to die just so he could piggyback the dead girlfriend on top of that? I'm a pretty cold, tasteless dude, but that's low even by my standards. Now onto the links!
- Mike Eder of TYA had a pair of great posts on individual hitters' swing mechanic problems. On Monday, he covered A-Rod and his bad hip, and on Tuesday he looked at Kevin Youkilis and his hands.
- On Tuesday, Josh Norris of Minor Matters posted some early details on the Yankees' 2013 MiL Spring Training schedule.
- Greg Cohen of Sliding Into Home got back into the blogging groove by stating that he did not like the idea of Andy Pettitte pitching in the WBC this year. Based on Andy's recent health track record, I'm inclined to agree and am glad he's off the roster.
- Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes put an interesting spin on the "slow offseason" complaint that many have had by looking at the Yankees' activity compared to other teams.
- Alex Pugliese of Yanks Go Yard asked who from the A-Rod-Youkilis pairing made the most sense as the everyday third baseman this season.
- On Wednesday, Mike Axisa of RAB looked at early projections for Derek Jeter based on his ankle injury for 2013 and beyond.
- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog broke down the dollars on Rafael Soriano to determine who was a winner and loser in him opting out of his Yankee contract and signing with Washington.
- On Thursday, Chad Jennings of LoHud discussed Eduardo Nunez's middle-of-nowhere situation and brought up an interesting high-ceiling career comparison.
- El duque of It Is High... is getting tired of waiting for Cash to make his customary January move, and tired of waiting for the kids in A-ball.
- Brien Jackson of IIATMS pointed out the lack of compatability in Hal's "getting under the luxury tax but not being open to extensions" payroll policies.
- On Friday, Steph Bee of Pinstriped Bible mused on the idea of trading Curtis Granderson. It's an idea that almost everybody out there has had come across their mind at some point.
This week's Friday Jam comes from Nine Inch Nails. Trent Reznor is pretty damn boss these days, winning Academy Awards, recording with QOTSA for their new album, and reportedly considering bringing NIN out of retirement. I saw Linkin Park cover this at a concert one time and a bunch of younger mid-teens kids in the crowd had no clue what the song was. That was sad. Those kids should have been slapped.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody. Say hi to your fake internet girlfriends for me.
2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 10-1
(Courtesy of Tim Priddy/Four Seam Images)
It's all been building to this. The past 54 calendar weeks since the first AB4AR Top 30. Suffice it to say this is arguably going to be the greatest moment of this year, and 2013 is only 17 days old. The last group of players, the top 10, of the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 is released today.
From the new kids on the block with upside to the guys transition through the levels to this crop, each group of 10 has had some defining characteristics and the top 10 here is no different. This group of players consists of upper-level guys right on the doorstep of making the Major League roster, some of them with the chance to be long-term fixtures at their positions, and also the elite group of lower-level guys who are fixing to be future All Stars at their positions. If they aren't traded, the next core group of homegrown players could be sitting right within this top 10, and many of them play positions at which the Yankees are going to have a need in the next couple of years.
Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Adonis Garcia
(Courtesy of Mike Ashmore)
There was a period of time 10-15 years ago when the Yankees dominated the international free agent game. They brought in El Duque, they brought in Hideki, they brought in Contreras. That last move didn't really work out, but it was still the Yankees using their financial muscle to bring in high-ceiling international talent. Right around the time that Bahhston signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Yankees started to drift back to the pack on the international market, and recently they've been in the news more for losing out on or not even getting involved in the biding for players like Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jorge Soler.
They did make one move last year that could produce some upside, though. In early May the Yankees signed Adonis Garcia, a then 26-year-old bat-first Cuban outfielder, to a 1-year MiL deal worth $400,000. The move didn't sound like much at the time, and it still might not be, but Garcia hit the ground running upon making his US debut and has already shown he's no slouch with the bat. His ceiling is low, but there might be something there worth watching.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 20-11
(Courtesy of Beverly Schaefer/The Times of Trenton)
As we move forward from the first third of this year's rankings, the faces start to become a little more familiar. 9 of the 10 players included in the middle section of this year's Top 30 were on last year's list. They also start to become a bit more experienced, with 9 of the 10 having played in a full-season league last year and 7 of the 10 playing in at least 1 game at the Double-A level or higher. There's slightly less upside in this group than in the group of 10 from yesterday, or at least upside that's a little better known, but there is also more polish and polish is what I'm looking for to know that a player is on the right track. After the jump, check out positions 20-11 in the 2012-213 AB4AR Top 30.
No Yankees In Keith Law's Top 25 Under 25
Last Friday, Keith Law of ESPN released his 2nd "MLB 25 Under 25 Rankings," listing who he felt were the top 25 players under the age of 25. Not surprisingly, the Yankees were not represented on this list, as they didn't finish the 2012 season with 1 player on their active roster who was under 25 and likely won't start 2013 with a single player who falls into that category either. For what it's worth, they only put 1 player (Ivan Nova) on Law's 1st edition of this ranking system in 2011, and that list was 50 players deep.
The famed "Yankee Way" has not been kind to young players in the past decade, treating them almost as spare roster parts to be used to patch up and fill in weak areas caused by injuries to their older veterans rather than key contributors to a winning franchise. The Yankees prefer to bring in veteran players, specifically ones they feel fit their system, and for the most part that's been a pretty successful strategy in remaining competitive. But while they've remained competitive, teams like San Francisco have been winning World Series titles on the strength of their under-25 players, and teams like the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers, who both use under-25 players as everyday players, have knocked the Yankees out of the postseason.
The Yankee Way is going to take a hit in the next year with the ownership-imposed payroll cut to get under the luxury tax. Even mining for the cheapest of 1-year deals, the Yankees are going to have to lean on some of their younger, cheaper internal players, which makes their current lack of those quality under-25 guys all the more glaring. As important as it is for them to score big with their 3 1st-round draft picks this year, it's equally important for some of their current prospects to have big years and put themselves in position to be everyday or close to everyday contributors in 2014 and beyond.
The famed "Yankee Way" has not been kind to young players in the past decade, treating them almost as spare roster parts to be used to patch up and fill in weak areas caused by injuries to their older veterans rather than key contributors to a winning franchise. The Yankees prefer to bring in veteran players, specifically ones they feel fit their system, and for the most part that's been a pretty successful strategy in remaining competitive. But while they've remained competitive, teams like San Francisco have been winning World Series titles on the strength of their under-25 players, and teams like the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers, who both use under-25 players as everyday players, have knocked the Yankees out of the postseason.
The Yankee Way is going to take a hit in the next year with the ownership-imposed payroll cut to get under the luxury tax. Even mining for the cheapest of 1-year deals, the Yankees are going to have to lean on some of their younger, cheaper internal players, which makes their current lack of those quality under-25 guys all the more glaring. As important as it is for them to score big with their 3 1st-round draft picks this year, it's equally important for some of their current prospects to have big years and put themselves in position to be everyday or close to everyday contributors in 2014 and beyond.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 30-21
(The next big thing? Courtesy of Josh Norris)
Well I think I've dragged the suspense out long enough. No more explanations of my thought process, no more looking back at the guys who aren't on the list anymore, and no more teasing with the guys who didn't make it. It's time to start getting into the meat and potatoes of the 2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30, and that starts today with spots 30-21. In a slight change from last year, I'm splitting the actual Top 30 up into 3 10-spot posts and today we'll tackle the bottom 10.
The bottom third of this year's Top 30 is the place where you'll find a lot of new faces, be they players who just started their pro careers in 2012, players who just worked themselves onto the prospect radar, or players who were on the fringe and did enough last year to force themselves onto the list. It's also a place where you'll find guys who dropped in the rankings from their positions last year, mainly because of their failure to progress and improve upon their 2011 production. It's a collection of unknown potential and unrealized potential. So without further adieu, here are the first 10 spots in this year's AB4AR Top 30.
Soriano Signing Fills The Draft Pick Pool
(I wonder if he smiles at the Nats' presser. Courtesy of Getty Images)
Just as things were starting to look bleak for old Sour Puss, Scott Boras worked his magic again and got another team who felt they needed bullpen help to overpay for his client. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, the Washington Nationals have agreed to sign Rafael Soriano to a 2-year/$28 million deal with an option for a third year. In almost identical fashion to how he hooked the Yankees after his brilliant 2010 closing campaign in Tampa, Soriano parlayed an excellent year into another big contract. You gotta give credit where credit's due; he and Boras knew what they were doing after all.
The best Yankee-centric news to come out of this development, besides ending all the discussion about what we'd be willing to pay to take Soriano back, is the guarantee of a second supplemental 1st-round pick in this year's MLB draft. Paired with the pick the Yankees would have already had and the supplemental pick they get for Cleveland signing Nick Swisher, the Yankees are now holding 3 of the first 32 picks in the draft. Right now those picks would be the 27th, 30th, and 32nd, with the possibility of them shifting depending on where Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn end up signing.
From a prospect perspective, since that's what this week is all about, this is a big opportunity for the Yankees to add some depth and high-ceiling talent to their farm system. They haven't had much success with their most recent 1st-rounders, reaching for Cito Culver and Dante Bichette, Jr. only to watch both of them stagnate in Low-A ball in 2012, and it's still too early to make a solid call on Ty Hensley, who raised some eyebrows post-draft with the reports of his "shoulder abnormality." That, combined with the injury and regression struggles of the organization's upper-level starting pitching, has created another talent void in the system, a void that can start to be filled by scoring in this year's draft.
The Yankees played the qualifying offer game correctly and have been rewarded for it with more picks and a bigger draft spending pool. I know they're drafted heavily on makeup and intangibles the last few years, but this year might be the year to put that aside a bit and go for the big talent. They don't all need to be home runs, but the Yankees have to hit big with at least 1 of this year's picks.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Corey Black
(Courtesy of Bill Lyons/Staten Island Advance)
The members of the 2012 draft class are the most under-represented on this year's Top 30, mainly because the majority of them have such a small sample size to evaluate, but that doesn't mean there aren't good players and future AB4AR Top 30 members included. Such is the case with Corey Black, a 4th-round pick out of Faulkner University. Black made a name for himself prior to the draft and in his pro debut season on the strength of his fastball velocity, which sits mid-90s and was reported to hit triple digits on more than one occasion this past season. In some circles that would be enough to get you on a top 30 prospects list, but some uncertainty surrounding Black's ultimate role as a Yankee led me to leave him off the radar for now until his career path becomes better defined.
2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Just Missed The Cut
(A bridesmaid again in 2013. Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MLB.com)
The bad part about any top prospect list, be it 10, 15, or 30 players deep, is that there are always going to be some good, worthy guys who don't make the cut. That was the case last year with the first edition of the AB4AR Top 30 and it held true this year as well. Truth be told, it was a pretty big chore to not only figure out who made the list and who didn't, but also to figure out which of those players who missed the cut were most worthy of these 5 also-ran spots. There is a lot of depth in the Yankee system right now, don't forget that, and the group of players who failed to crack this year's Top 30 are just as good a representation of that as the 30 who made the list. After the jump, check out the 5 guys who fell just short of cracking the Top 30 this year.
Lack of Logic In Latest Upton Rumors
For a team that's supposedly not interested in acquiring him, the Yankees sure have been connected to Justin Upton a lot this offseason. The latest rumor, as reported by Jon Morosi of FOX Sports on Sunday, has them interested in putting a package comparable to what Seattle offered together for Upton but, according to Morosi, also being unwilling to take on the 3 years and $38+ mil still owed to Upton. Morosi suggests trading Curtis Granderson to Seattle as a way to help cut payroll in advance of trading for Upton, but this is where the train starts to come off the tracks.
First, trading Granderson to make payroll room for Upton would basically be a lateral move for 2013, not a move that improves the team. Is an Upton-Gardner-Ichiro outfield any better than a C-Grand-Gardner-Ichiro one? Maybe just a little if Upton rebounds to his 2011 form, but giving up prospects and trading away your best outfielder to get marginally better makes no sense. And if the hold up really is not wanting to add payroll, then trading Granderson is hardly a fix for that. He's coming off the books after this season anyway, so to move him now and weaken your 2013 outfield when he doesn't really affect the 2014 payroll anyway would be a classic "robbing Peter to pay Paul" scenario.
Most of what was discussed in Morosi's piece was his own speculation and hypothetical scenarios, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some truth to it based on how the Yankees have conducted their business so far this offseason. If money really is the hold up with Upton, then it's another example of the payroll goals getting in the way of smart baseball decisions.
First, trading Granderson to make payroll room for Upton would basically be a lateral move for 2013, not a move that improves the team. Is an Upton-Gardner-Ichiro outfield any better than a C-Grand-Gardner-Ichiro one? Maybe just a little if Upton rebounds to his 2011 form, but giving up prospects and trading away your best outfielder to get marginally better makes no sense. And if the hold up really is not wanting to add payroll, then trading Granderson is hardly a fix for that. He's coming off the books after this season anyway, so to move him now and weaken your 2013 outfield when he doesn't really affect the 2014 payroll anyway would be a classic "robbing Peter to pay Paul" scenario.
Most of what was discussed in Morosi's piece was his own speculation and hypothetical scenarios, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some truth to it based on how the Yankees have conducted their business so far this offseason. If money really is the hold up with Upton, then it's another example of the payroll goals getting in the way of smart baseball decisions.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Matt Tracy
(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MLB.com)
Way back in February of last year, when TYA was having its Prospect Week, you might recall this post where I pulled up a couple names to keep an eye on in terms of future prospect potential. One of the key names in that post was Matt Tracy, a left-handed pitcher who was making the transition from reliever to starter in an experiment the Yankees would hope turn out to be a goldmine. Tracy's 2012 season was an inconsistent one. He started off scorching hot for High-A Tampa after missing some time with injuries before hitting a wall in mid-July and struggling to finish the season, but still earned the opportunity to start a game in the Triple-A playoffs. It wasn't quite enough to help him crack this year's Top 30, but certainly enough to put him on the radar for next year if he can continue to improve.
2012-2013 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Those We've Lost
(From #1 in our hearts to negative WAR in Seattle. So long, sweet prince)
Before we jump into this year's AB4AR Top 30, it's only appropriate to look back at the guys from last year's inaugural Top 30 who fell off the list. That's right, people. I'm teasing you with some prospect foreplay before getting to the main event. You know you love it.
As I stated last night, last year's list was admittedly full of some big misses on my part, and some of those misses have been corrected by not having them re-appear on this year's list. But there were also some guys who played their way off the list, some guys who were let go by the organization, some who were traded away, and one who graduated to the Majors with a solid rookie season. There was high turnover from last year to this year, with 9 players from the first Top 30 failing to make this year's edition. After the jump, check out who those players are, what led to their dismissal/removal from this year's rankings, and what's in store for them in 2013.
Welcome To 2013 AB4AR Prospect Week
At long last, the day has come. It's been a long while since I've done this, over a calendar year in fact since the inaugural AB4AR Top 30 actually started in late December of 2011. But the stars have aligned, the prospects have all been ranked, and the time has finally come for them to be unveiled to the world. And like last year, I'm not just going to plop 30 names out in a single post and call it a day, oh no. This celebration is going to stretch across this entire week, building what I'm sure will be a tidal wave of emotion and anticipation towards the release of the top 10.
Here's the plan for this week. Not only am I going to release the 2nd edition of the AB4AR Top 30, I'm also going to take a look back at some of last year's Top 30 member who were removed from this year's list, I'm going to cover the players who just missed the cut for this year's list, and I'm going to dig even deeper to find some guys who may not qualify as true "prospects," but are still worth knowing about. Yes sir, it's going to be a week chock full of prospecty goodness, because let's be honest, when we're sitting here talking about the idea of signing Jim Thome or Javy Vazquez, that's a clear sign that it's the dead time of the offseason. And what better way to brighten that up then by looking to the future?
So strap yourselves in, clear your schedules, tell your boss to pound sand, and tell the wife/husband and kids you'll see them next week. This party kicks off this afternoon at 1 PM Eastern/12 Central.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
AB4AR Top 30 Introduction: The Method To My Madness
The beauty and the fun of prospect ranking is that everybody has their own system. There's a standard set of criteria that everybody has to consider when evaluating players and deciding where to rank them, but how they consider them and what criteria they put more weight on is what ultimately determines the differences between one person's top prospect list and another, and what sparks the conversation and debate that we all love to have about prospects.
Before we dive into the 2012-2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30, I thought it would be a good idea to give some explanation on the system I use and why I use it. It's mainly so you the readers know why I ranked guys the way I did, but it's also partially for me. I thought I knew what I was doing last year when I took my first stab at a top 30, and it turned out that I didn't know as much as I thought I did about some players. This year, I wanted to be more thorough in my evaluation of each player, and more consistent in the way I followed my system. I spent the entire season working on these rankings, and revised them often as the season progressed based on how each player performed against my set of criteria.
I think the list I've come up with this year is much better than the first edition, and much more representative of my ranking system and the criteria I put more weight on when evaluating guys. So to give everybody an idea of my thought process and what's most important to me when ranking prospects, here's a quick explanation of my personal ranking system.
Before we dive into the 2012-2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30, I thought it would be a good idea to give some explanation on the system I use and why I use it. It's mainly so you the readers know why I ranked guys the way I did, but it's also partially for me. I thought I knew what I was doing last year when I took my first stab at a top 30, and it turned out that I didn't know as much as I thought I did about some players. This year, I wanted to be more thorough in my evaluation of each player, and more consistent in the way I followed my system. I spent the entire season working on these rankings, and revised them often as the season progressed based on how each player performed against my set of criteria.
I think the list I've come up with this year is much better than the first edition, and much more representative of my ranking system and the criteria I put more weight on when evaluating guys. So to give everybody an idea of my thought process and what's most important to me when ranking prospects, here's a quick explanation of my personal ranking system.
Not Javy Vazquez Again. Please
(No, no, a billion times no)
I wanted to let this one sit as a post on the Facebook Page, but after all the pain he's caused me I just can't. Nick Cafardo reported yesterday that the Yankees were among a group of teams who have been following Javy Vazquez's work in a Puerto Rican winter league. That's right, the same Javy Vazquez who posted these 2 lines in his previous 2 tours with the Yanks:
2004- 198.0 IP, 4.91/4.58/4.71, 17.7% K rate, 33 HR
2010- 157.1 IP, 5.32/5.56/4.69, 17.7% K rate, 32 HR
There's that old saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." Well the Yankees have already been fooled twice by Vazquez, and that was back during times when he was still considered a good pitcher in most Major League circles. Now he's been out of the league for a year, he's 36 years old, and I'd rather not see who the blame falls on if he fools the Yankees a third time. I know they're bottom feeding for pitching depth this offseason, but there's no logical reason for even entertaining the idea of bringing Vazquez back. I don't care if he's healthy, if his velocity is up, or if he's had a cybernetic third arm added to his body. I've seen everything I need to see to know that Javy Vazquez sucks in a Yankee uniform.
Labels:
Ex-Yankees,
Javy Vazquez,
Offseason Talk,
Quick Hits
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Extensions For Joe & Cano Should Be A Priority
When he wasn't busy trying to pull non-existent wool over the eyes of us Yankee fans or slapping us in the face with his bulging money clip, Hal Steinbrenner did take some time the other day to comment on the upcoming contract situations for Joe Girardi and Robinson Cano. Both of them enter 2013 in the final year of their current deals, and in typical Yankee fashion Hal played the "we don't do extensions" card. That's not surprising knowing how the Yankees do business when it comes to new contracts, but considering they're already changing the way they do business by trying to scale back payroll, it would be wise to loosen up the standards on the extension front as well.
Why Not Travis Hafner For DH?
(Courtesy of Getty Images)
The Yankees are still in the market for a designated hitter for this season, and it's one of the few positions where they can actually afford to look for a lefty since they have A-Rod and Kevin Youkilis to handle the right-handed DH duties. Mark Hale reported earlier this week that the Yankees have "no interest" in 42-year-old Jim Thome, which doesn't come as a huge surprise, but there is another name out there that I think could be a better fit than people realize. That name is Travis Hafner, former Cleveland Indian who had his team option declined and hasn't generated a whole lot of buzz this offseason because of his annual injury problems. This is going to sound crazy, but I think those injury problems are EXACTLY why the Yankees should be interested in Hafner.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/11/13
Major victory for me in my day job this week, people. Truly life-altering stuff. In my position, I'm constantly being shipped cases of sample containers for projects I run, usually bottles and cans. When you do a lot of business with the big soda and beer companies of the world, there always exists the opportunity to get some free product, but I've never been lucky enough to experience that perk in the hundreds, probably thousands, of container samples I've received since I started working for my company. Until this week. I got me a fresh 24-case of 16oz aluminum Bud heavies sent to my attention for machine testing. The King. I damn near pissed my pants in excitement when I realized the bottles were full. I saved about 5 to use for the project and the other 19 are going right back to the crib to take their rightful place in my fridge. Is it shitty beer? Absolutely. Am I going to do my duty as an American and enjoy the hell out of every last drop? You betcha. Who needs profit sharing when you've got free beer? Now onto the links!
- On Monday, Derek Albin of Pinstripe Pundits analyzed the history of Yankee draft picks to find where their strengths and weaknesses have been, both past and present.
- On Tuesday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog looked back at past instances of HOF voters letting their moral compasses get in the way of logic. Timely considering all the anti-steroid stuff going around this week from current BBWAA members.
- Chad Jennings of LoHud had some more nitty gritty details on A-Rod's injured left hip thanks to a Tuesday afternoon conference call with the suddenly famous Dr. Kelly.
- Erica Morales of Bleeding Yankee Blue wondered about Joba Chamberlain's future with the Yankees as he heads into a contract year this season.
- On Wednesday, Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible made his 3-point pitch for why the Yankees should trade Phil Hughes.
- Mark Simon of ESPN looked at Mike Mussina's career and made a strong HOF case for Mussina when he becomes eligible next year, a case that might also be strengthened by his not being connected to PEDs.
- SG of RLYW looked back at the last 5 years of projections vs. actual production from Alex Rodriguez to see if there's anything they can tell us about what to expect in 2013 after his upcoming surgery.
- Matt Hunter of Yanks Go Yard investigated the fit between the Yankees and Michael Morse. Spoiler alert- it's a good one.
- On Thursday, Mike Eder of TYA identified 2 Cuban players that would be great targets for the Yankees, especially because they aren't subject to the new CBA rules on international free agents.
- El duque of It Is High... mused on what Brian Cashman could be up to behind the scenes during this part of January, his usual big surprise time of the offseason.
- Mike Axisa of RAB looked back through the Baseball America archives at some past top Yankee prospects and top 5-10 lists, and how they panned out.
- On Friday, Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes weighed the option of giving up a big prospect package for Justin Upton in the wake of the failed Seattle trade.
- Stacey Gotsulias of Second Place Is Not An Option continued her daily countdown to Spring Training 2013 with a look back at one of Jason Giambi's better seasons in pinstripes.
- Brien Jackson of IIATMS offered up his take on Hal's offseason commentary from yesterday, and it was far more level-headed than mine.
This week's Friday Jam is a doozy, "Savage Henry" by Lo-Pan. If you aren't familiar with their work, do yourself a favor and get familiar because these guys rock, plain and simple. I checked them out a month or so ago in one of Magary's "NFL Jamboroo" posts on Deadspin and I've been hooked ever since. Lead singer's got some pipes on him.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody. And just a reminder, only 2+ days left until Prospect Week and the 2nd annual AB4AR Top 30.
- On Monday, Derek Albin of Pinstripe Pundits analyzed the history of Yankee draft picks to find where their strengths and weaknesses have been, both past and present.
- On Tuesday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog looked back at past instances of HOF voters letting their moral compasses get in the way of logic. Timely considering all the anti-steroid stuff going around this week from current BBWAA members.
- Chad Jennings of LoHud had some more nitty gritty details on A-Rod's injured left hip thanks to a Tuesday afternoon conference call with the suddenly famous Dr. Kelly.
- Erica Morales of Bleeding Yankee Blue wondered about Joba Chamberlain's future with the Yankees as he heads into a contract year this season.
- On Wednesday, Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible made his 3-point pitch for why the Yankees should trade Phil Hughes.
- Mark Simon of ESPN looked at Mike Mussina's career and made a strong HOF case for Mussina when he becomes eligible next year, a case that might also be strengthened by his not being connected to PEDs.
- SG of RLYW looked back at the last 5 years of projections vs. actual production from Alex Rodriguez to see if there's anything they can tell us about what to expect in 2013 after his upcoming surgery.
- Matt Hunter of Yanks Go Yard investigated the fit between the Yankees and Michael Morse. Spoiler alert- it's a good one.
- On Thursday, Mike Eder of TYA identified 2 Cuban players that would be great targets for the Yankees, especially because they aren't subject to the new CBA rules on international free agents.
- El duque of It Is High... mused on what Brian Cashman could be up to behind the scenes during this part of January, his usual big surprise time of the offseason.
- Mike Axisa of RAB looked back through the Baseball America archives at some past top Yankee prospects and top 5-10 lists, and how they panned out.
- On Friday, Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes weighed the option of giving up a big prospect package for Justin Upton in the wake of the failed Seattle trade.
- Stacey Gotsulias of Second Place Is Not An Option continued her daily countdown to Spring Training 2013 with a look back at one of Jason Giambi's better seasons in pinstripes.
- Brien Jackson of IIATMS offered up his take on Hal's offseason commentary from yesterday, and it was far more level-headed than mine.
This week's Friday Jam is a doozy, "Savage Henry" by Lo-Pan. If you aren't familiar with their work, do yourself a favor and get familiar because these guys rock, plain and simple. I checked them out a month or so ago in one of Magary's "NFL Jamboroo" posts on Deadspin and I've been hooked ever since. Lead singer's got some pipes on him.
Enjoy your weekends, everybody. And just a reminder, only 2+ days left until Prospect Week and the 2nd annual AB4AR Top 30.
Hal Steinbrenner Does Not Compute
("I have more money than you.")
Hal Steinbrenner is not nearly as active in talking to the media as his old man was, and more and more it's starting to look like that's for the best because it seems like whenever he opens his mouth there's nothing good coming out of it. I don't know if Hal thinks all the Yankee fans out there are as clueless about baseball as he is or if he thinks we're all just stupid, but the comments he made yesterday at the quarterly owners' meetings didn't make a whole lot of sense. Some of what he said was downright offensive to me as a Yankee fan and someone who considers himself pretty knowledgeable about the sport of baseball. Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal had the most comprehensive collection of Hal's quotes and after the jump are my takes on some of the highlights.
Do The Yankees Have Any Idea What They're Doing With Eduardo Nunez?
(Courtesy of Tim Farrell/The Star-Ledger)
It hasn't been a very long career for Eduardo Nunez, but it also certainly hasn't been one short on headlines. Once the heir apparent to Derek Jeter as the Yankees' everyday shortstop, Nunez has been shuffled around various positions and roles, experimented with as an outfielder, dangled as trade bait, and shuttled back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A constantly since first breaking in in 2010. Based on Cash's comments to ESPN NY yesterday, it doesn't look like that trend is going to cease in 2013. Speaking to Andrew Marchand, Cash stated that Nunez will be shifted back to the utility infielder role if he makes the team this season, the same role that was taken from him in May of last season. If that doesn't make a lot of sense to you, good. Because it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me either.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
CC Slimming Down Again
(Gettin' into fighting shape... )
You know the offseason is getting close to turning from hot stove to looking ahead to Spring Training when CC Sabathia's weight and conditioning starts becoming a talking point. It's an annual tradition in Yankeeland, like Old Timers' Day. He dropped 25 pounds a few years back before the season and then ended up putting it all back on by season's end, but it didn't negatively affect his performance or trademark durability, so who cares, right?
Well after last season's injury problems, the first he's experienced since 2006, CC appears to be back on the health kick. He showed up at ESPN's headquarters yesterday to make his media rounds for his campaign to be on the cover of the new "MLB The Show" video game looking trimmer than he did this past season and confirmed that he had lost weight.
"I've lost 20 pounds. Coming off the elbow surgery, I just wanted to be healthy and stay healthy all year."
CC's ability to handle the workload he does at his size has always been one of, if not his greatest strengths as an ace starting pitcher. But after last year's brush with mortality, and his transition from late 20s into early 30s, it might be time for CC to start taking a more proactive approach towards keeping his body in the best physical condition possible. Cleaning the elbow out was a good start, and dropping some weight should help keep his legs fresh. Of course there's no way to guarantee anything health-wise in baseball, but if CC is able to better maintain his weight in 2013 it should increase his chances of staying healthy through a full season's worth of starts and possibly lessen the need to limit his innings.
Yankees 11th In Preliminary Baseball America Farm System Rankings
The official Baseball America organizational farm system rankings don't come out until March, but BA writer Jim Callis released his personal top 10 earlier in the week. The Yankees weren't included in that top 10, but Callis did confirm via Twitter that he and his fellow BA contributors all had the Yankees ranked 11th in their preliminary rankings.
This comes as a bit of a surprise after such a down year for the Yankee MiL organization. A lot of their top prospects were hindered by injuries or poor performance, many of them at the higher levels of the system, and the trading away of former top prospect Jesus Montero left the upper levels very light on impact talent. But there is a lot of low-level strength in the organization, both on the mound and on the field, and those players, guys like Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, and Mason Williams, all had very good years. They're starting to rise, and that crew plus the high amount of mid-tier prospect depth in the system probably worked to get the Yankees that 11th-place ranking.
If the new crop of top prospects continues to progress on the pace they're presently on, if Jose Campos stays healthy in 2013, if Rafael DePaula turns out to be the real deal, and if the Yankees make a big splash with their multiple 1st-round picks in this year's draft, we could be looking at a top 5 farm system this time in 2014.
This would probably be a good time to mention that we're just 4 days away from the start of 2013 Prospect Week at AB4AR, highlighted by the unveiling of the 2012-2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30. Mark your calendars, set your watches, and double check your alarms, people, because it's going to be a good time.
This comes as a bit of a surprise after such a down year for the Yankee MiL organization. A lot of their top prospects were hindered by injuries or poor performance, many of them at the higher levels of the system, and the trading away of former top prospect Jesus Montero left the upper levels very light on impact talent. But there is a lot of low-level strength in the organization, both on the mound and on the field, and those players, guys like Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, and Mason Williams, all had very good years. They're starting to rise, and that crew plus the high amount of mid-tier prospect depth in the system probably worked to get the Yankees that 11th-place ranking.
If the new crop of top prospects continues to progress on the pace they're presently on, if Jose Campos stays healthy in 2013, if Rafael DePaula turns out to be the real deal, and if the Yankees make a big splash with their multiple 1st-round picks in this year's draft, we could be looking at a top 5 farm system this time in 2014.
This would probably be a good time to mention that we're just 4 days away from the start of 2013 Prospect Week at AB4AR, highlighted by the unveiling of the 2012-2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30. Mark your calendars, set your watches, and double check your alarms, people, because it's going to be a good time.
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