Is The Yankee Offense Good Or Not?

(The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.)

I've seen and read a lot of things this season that could easily lead me to believe "Yes" or "No," at any given time.  And as I touched on earlier in the week, consistency has been the major issue.  Last night was just the latest example of that consistent inconsistency as the offense could never capitalize on the multiple opportunities they had to pick up CC, choosing instead to shoot themselves in the foot.  So this morning I woke up thinking that the offense really wasn't as good as all the home runs might be leading us to believe, but let's let the numbers do the talking.

The Evidence For (MLB rank in parentheses where appropriate):

- 146 runs scored (6th), .340 team OBP (3rd), .468 SLG (1st, and 20 points higher than the 2nd place team), .808 OPS (2nd), 46 HR (1st, and 10 more than 2nd place), 182 K (27th, or 4th fewest in MLB), .352 wOBA (2nd), 120 OPS + (3rd), 5.41 R/G (1st).

The Evidence Against:

- .254 Team BA (12th), 224 hits (26th), .268 BABIP (25th), .240 BA w/ RISP, .177 BA w/ RISP 2 Outs, 58% SB Rate (27th), 32 GIDP (4th most in MLB), .229/.295/.294 tripleslash in 109 AB from the leadoff spot.

So there you have it.  Basically the Yankees aren't getting a lot of hits, and aren't getting key hits with RISP, but they are making up for that by hitting for a ton of power and drawing a lot of walks.  On top of their untimely hitting, they have cost themselves runs by failing to execute on stolen base attempts (14 for 24 after last night's basepath fiascoes), and grounding into too many damn double plays.  Even though I didn't dig deep enough here to find out the statistical support, I think it's safe to say that if the Yanks were hitting for league average power, that probably would have cost them some wins already this season because of how bad their leadoff production and clutch hitting has been.

Now some of this needs to be taken in context.  The Bombers have played 2-3 fewer games than almost every team in the league because of rain outs, making their lower hit total more acceptable and their run/home run totals even more impressive.  And we can assume that some bad luck has certainly factored into the low BABIP value (thanks a lot, Brent Lillibridge).  But things like a poor SB rate and the GIDPs are simply inexcusable, and personally I find the low RISP numbers a little disconcerting given the bulk of talent in this lineup.  When you add everything up I think it's fair to say that the offense has been good, but not as good as it could be.  Some better baserunning and better situational hitting and the R/G, wOBA, OPS+, and Win totals would look even better.  For now, I'll give the offense a B-.

In Appreciation Of The Back Of The Rotation

(I bet none of you thought I would even start this many games this season.  Courtesy of The AP)

At the start of the season, the prevailing thought was that the Yankee rotation was going to be CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes as the sure things and then a rotating series of older veterans and unproven youngsters who would be expected to bridge the gap to the trade deadline when the Yanks could then try to trade for a Chris Carpenter or something close.  That alone was a frightening potential scenario when you consider that calling A.J. a "sure thing" is about as safe as calling Charlie Sheen "mentally stable."

After Hughes stumbled out of the gate and then had to be turned into glue in the form of his DL stint because of a dead arm, the panic meter should have risen to somewhere around 9.7-9.8, but instead the Yankee rotation has been better than anybody anticipated so far, and we all have Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova to thank for that.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to take any of the credit away from CC or A.J., as they have more than lived up to their end of the bargain.  But without these other 3 solidifying the back end and then some, this team would not be sitting at 17-9 right now.

In their 11 combined starts after Colon's beauty last night, this is the combined line for Colon, Garcia, and Nova:

66 IP  58 H  26 BB  24 ER  51 K  5-2 Rec.  3.27 ERA  1.27 WHIP  6.95 K/9

That's not just good 'back of the rotation' production.  That would be considered above average MIDDLE of the rotation production.  And when you consider that these numbers are all slightly inflated because of Nova's rough earlier outings that equate to 43 H+BB and 15 ER in 27.1 IP as a starter, it makes everything that much more impressive.  Colon and Garcia, the 2 guys who nobody except Joe believed in, have allowed just 30 hits and 9 ER combined over their 38.2 IP in 6 starts.  That's not acceptable "replacement level" production from your 4th or 5th starter, that's ALL-STAR LEVEL production from any starter.

And the best part about all these numbers is that they don't only demonstrate how good these guys have been, they demonstrate how consistent they've been.  Of their 11 combined starts, 8 of them can be classified as Quality Starts by the standard definition (6+ IP, 3- ER Allowed).  And within those 8 quality outings, 5 of them can be classified as what I would call "High Quality Starts" (6+ IP, 2- ER Allowed).  Save for Nova's 2 early stinkers, these 3 have given the Yankees a damn good outing practically every time they've taken the hill.  Colon has been downright DOMINANT in his 3 starts.  I think you'd be hard pressed to find anybody in Yankeeland who foresaw this high-quality output from this trio, but you also wouldn't find anybody who wouldn't have been thrilled to Michael Jackson zombie levels if somebody told them this is what they'd get.

Is it going to continue for the foreseeable future?  Who knows.  Is it sustainable over the next 136 games?  Almost certainly not.  But that doesn't matter.  What matters is that the Yankees are getting a huge bang for the minimal bucks that Cash spent on these guys in a time when they need it most.  We all scoffed at the decision and now Cash is the one laughing at everyone who doubted the decisions.  If one or more of this trio starts to falter or gets hurt, hopefully by then Phil Hughes will be back to full strength and back in the rotation to pick up the slack.  But for now, we should just sit back and enjoy the ride because it wasn't supposed to be this smooth.

The Horse Gets Spooked

 
After starting the regular season spitting the same hot fire he was in ST, The Horse seems to have thrown a shoe over the last 2 weeks.  Before he missed his 2 games in mid-April because of the sore oblique, he was sitting at a God-like .385/.500/.821 tripleslash.  Since returning he's seen those numbers drop to a mere mortal .269/.379/.551 and we all know that centaurs of his athletic caliber don't just experience that kind of drop off for no reason, so what, exactly, is going on with him?

Friend of the blog Larry Koestler touched on the subject yesterday with his post on A-Rod's rough week at TYA and came to the conclusion that it was A-Rod's free swinging that was too blame.

"... during the past few days A-Rod chased quite a few more pitches out of the zone, and made less contact with those pitches than he had been. He also swung more often in general, taking cuts at more than half the pitches he saw, but made contact at a distinctly poorer rate (66.7%, down from his season average of 78.4%).

The weaker hacks have unsurprisingly resulted in a lousier batted ball profile, with a 0% Line Drive% during the past seven days (compared to 11.5% on the season) and 47.1% GB% (compared to 41% on the season)."

You don't need to be a genius to look at that chart and realize that The Horse has lost some of his patience and reverted to a more Cano-like approach at the plate, and the results just haven't been working for him.  So we know the cause of the dip in numbers, but what is the cause for the increased swing rate.  The way I see it, it can be only one of 3 things:

1) A-Rod is trying to adjust to the pitchers pitching him differently after his scalding hot start.

2) A-Rod is still feeling some lingering effects of the oblique tweak and his swing mechanics are off.

3) A-Rod has become a bit more antsy at the plate since returning from injury because he has been following the news about Uncle Mo getting ready for the Kentucky Derby.

Now scenarios 1 and 2 make a lot more baseball sense, but I wouldn't rule out scenario 3 as being the true root cause.  Back in early March, The Horse had to be the odds-on favorite to win the Derby, but with Uncle Mo coming back into the picture and taking back some of the action,it's not unreasonable to think that that news had a negative effect on him.  I mean, A-Rod is good, but Uncle Mo is enough to stir even the greatest of centaurs.

In any case, I don't think this is anything to worry about.  A-Rod has had some issues before and he always works them out with Dr. Long.  A little video session here, some extra BP there, and he should be right back to his usual self.

(Chart via TYA and FanGraphs)

The Offense Wakes Up Just In Time

Well so much for consistency.  Whether it was Justin Verlander finding his stuff or the Yankee O losing their's, they went dormant again after putting 3 runs on the board in the first 1.2 innings.  That allowed the Tigers to creep back into the game over Bartolo Colon's strong 7 innings and deny him a win that should have been his.  But in the end, the offense woke up a bit in the 9th thanks to some wildness from Jose Valverde and secured the W.

And to Valverde, why aren't you dancing and gyrating around the mound now, you fat P.O.S.?  Save a game when it matters and then come back and talk to me.

Taking A Moment To Discuss The Story Of The Day

By now, everybody knows about the events that unfolded over this past weekend that culminated in the killing of public enemy # 1, Osama bin Laden, so I won't go into the details of that.  And I don't want to get political at all here because that's not who I am and that's not what this blog is about.  But as somebody with a family member who was a first responder and a survivor of the 9/11 attacks, I feel like I have to say something about this story.

Whether or not we all realize it, we live in a country that is still suffering the effects of the events that occurred on September 11, 2001.  One of the biggest effects was the uncertainty surrounding bin Laden's whereabouts over the last 10 years and the always lingering possibility of future attacks taking place.  While it certainly doesn't put a period on the war on terror or completely close the wounds that 9/11 left, the resolution of this one effect does help bring some closure to those of us who have a direct connection to that day.  Knowing that the man responsible for trying to and succeeding in killing our friends and family members has met the appropriate form of justice allows us to breathe a small sigh of relief.

But beyond that, the fact that we live in a country that has remained steadfast in its commitment to bringing this man to justice over the last 10 years, and succeeded in that commitment, is the real story.  Personally, I feel incredibly proud and honored to live in a country that not only allows me the freedom to write a blog like this where I constantly call into question the manhood and intelligence of other people while using the occasional F-word (something that would get me killed in other counties), but also has a large group of people who I will never meet and who don't know me yet commit themselves and their lives each and every day to protecting my freedom and my ability to write and express my feelings through this blog.  I know there are millions and possibly billions of people around the world who can't say that and don't have that same level of freedom and protection that I have, so I feel incredibly lucky to know that there are people out there who have my back every second of every day, offering me protection from other people in the world who hate me and hate the freedoms that I have by being a citizen of this country.

In the grand scheme of things in the world, this blog is as insignificant as a speck of dust, but it's important to me and it's something I love to do.  So to the people who were involved, directly or indirectly, in the events that took place over the weekend, and to all the men and women in our armed forces around the world who give me the opportunity to do what I do every day on this simple, little Yankee blog, I thank you from the bottom of my heart.  I only regret that I will never get the chance to thank you in person.

AB4AR's State Of The Yankees After The First Month

 (Swish is just as happy as I am about the first 25 game.  Courtesy of The AP)

It's only been 1 calendar month (plus a few days) and only 25 games for the Yankees this year.  And I'm smart enough to know that 1 month and 25 games is not a sound basis for evaluating the overall performance of players nor for predicting what the rest of the season will hold.  But it does offer enough of a sample size to make some broad statements about the positives and negatives of the team as a whole, and also provide some slight insights as to what the future may hold and what adjustments may need to be made moving forward.

Overall there is a lot to like about the first month of the Yankee season.  The offense is getting solid production from some of those expected to perform well (Cano, A-Rod) and some who have been pleasant surprises (Martin, Chavez).  Guys like Teix and C-Grand have bounced back early from subpar 2010 campaigns to help carry the torch and pick up the slack for what has been a rotation in flux and some slumping veterans.  That being said, the rotation really hasn't been as bad as expected, certainly not as bad as one might think it could have been with Phil Hughes' early struggles and trip to the DL.  CC is doing his job at the top as the ace and the rest are filling in behind him and offering solid contributions, especially A.J., whose pairing with Larry Rothschild seems to be working very well.  And despite some bumps in the road, the bullpen has been solid thanks to the core of Mo, Sour Puss, Joba, D-Rob, and Boone Logan.

Behind the basic numbers, though, there are some black marks on the offense.  The results have been 'feast or famine' in that the home run is accounting for over 57% of the team's runs early and there have been multiple instances of potential big innings being thwarted by failure to get hits with RISP or the always-dreaded GIDP.  And as great as the Cano-Horse-Teix-C-Grand-Martin quintet has been, the Jeter-Swish-Gardner-Posada foursome that makes up the rest of the lineup has been equally awful, balancing out to a .251/.335/.474 team tripleslash.  They are still 1st in baseball in OPS and 2nd with a .353 wOBA, but the offense has yet to put together a significant streak of games where everybody has been producing and doing the right things at the plate, and that has cost them a few close games early on.  It's scary/sad to think about what their numbers and their record could be if they were getting more consistent production from everybody.

The pitching, in my opinion, has exceeded expectations so far.  The starting rotation has combined for an 11-5 record in their 25 starts with a respectable 3.88 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, numbers inflated slightly by Phil Hughes' horrific results.  Eliminate him and the Yankees have 4 starters with ERAs below 3.93 (and 3 below 2.25), WHIPs below 1.28, and an average of 7.59 K/9.  And Ivan Nova has put together 2 consecutive solid starts to help ease the concern about his status moving forward.  The bullpen has been even better, especially when you factor out Nova and Freddy Garcia's bad 1.2 innings, all averaging out to a team ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash of 3.72/3.72/4.02, which isn't going to win any awards but has certainly been more than enough to win and better than I expected.

The biggest thing the Yankees have been lacking has been consistency, both at the plate and on the mound.  If they can establish that and get the offense and pitching on the same page, they can be very dangerous moving forward.  The biggest issue they need to address is the future of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.  Their early number suggest that their age has finally caught up with them, and Joe will need to make the call about whether or not Jeter should be moved down in the lineup and whether or not Jesus Montero should be called up to replace Posada in the lineup if the 2 elder statesmen's performance doesn't pick up.  It's not a situation that anybody is going to want to address, but if things continue down the path Jeter and Posada are already on, it's a decision that will have to be made.

A plan also needs to be put in place for solidifying the rotation if guys like Garcia and Colon either start to fade (possible) or get hurt (likely).  As good as they have been, their history suggests that these results won't hold for the rest of the year.  And with Hughes on the shelf indefinitely and Kevin Millwood opting out after his Triple-A bomb job last week (thank God), internal options are a little light so the kids in Triple-A or potential trade options should be explored now so that the team can be prepared to react and fill the gap if the time comes.

All in all, I would give the Yankees a B for the first month, close to a B+.  To lose Phil Hughes and not miss a beat in the rotation has been huge.  If they can get some consistency from the offense, better results from Soriano in the 8th, and stay healthy, the summer should be a fun time to be a Yankee fan.

Weekend Series Recap

The fam was in town to visit this weekend, hence the lack of updates and material on the blog.  But that don't mean I wasn't paying attention to what was going on in Yankeeland.  A series with Toronto that started out ugly ended up being another series win and an extension of the division lead, which is always good news.  Let's take a quick trip back in time to review all 3 games.

Friday: 5-3 L

If you saw the quick post on the AB4AR Facebook page on Friday night, then you know that Friday was U-G-L-Y without an alibi.  Freddy Garcia was meh at best in his worst start as a Yankee to date, but still gave his team a chance to win.  Unfortunately, the rest of the team took that chance and flushed it down the toilet thanks to a failed bases loaded/nobody out situation in the 5th, Dave Robertson heaving the ball into center field in the 6th when he had a Blue Jay runner in a rundown, which led to 2 runs scoring, and the offense going 0-8 with RISP and striking out 10 times.

The one offensive positive was Robbie Cano cracking 2 solo home runs, but overall it more inconsistency and failure to capitalize on the situation.  The Horse and Swishalicious were particularly bad, combining to go 0-9 with 2 Ks and 1 BB, including 0-5 combined with RISP.

Saturday: 5-4 W

A.J. Burnett took the mound yesterday, looking to build off his last start, an 8-inning, 1-run gem earlier in the week against Chicago.  While he wasn't that good, he was still effective at limiting damage on a day when his offspeed stuff was not there.  Over 6 innings he allowed 4 ER on 9 hits, but didn't walk a batter and like Garcia, he left his team with a chance to win.  That chance was something they managed to take and capitalize on in the first 3 innings, putting all 5 of their runs on the board against Toronto starter Kyle Drabek.  There was no one big star in the lineup, as 7 guys each had 1 hit, 5 guys each scored 1 run, and 5 guys each had 1 RBI.

What was frustrating was the offense's inability to build on their fast start.  After Drabek left the game, the Blue Jay bullpen held the Yankees hitless in 5.2 innings of relief.  Good thing the Yankee 'pen was up to the challenge of matching Toronto in the form of "The Formula."  Joba, Sour Puss, and The G.O.A.T. went 3 shutout innings to preserve A.J.'s win.

Sunday: 5-2 W

The rubber match today featured Ivan Nova looking for another good start to solidify his spot in the rotation after Kevin Millwood bombed in his last Triple-A audition outing.  Like he was in his last start, Nova was effective despite not being dominant or consistent.  In 6.1 innings of work he put 10 runners on base, but worked out of his seld-made trouble with key strikeouts and ground balls to only allow 2 ER.  Once again, Nova showed a better ability to mix his pitches up the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup to remain effective, and Joe gave him a bit of a longer leash than we've seen, allowing him to start the 7th inning with a pitch count approaching 100.

Offensively, it was Teix that got the Yankees started with a solo Teix Message in the 1st inning and C-Grand that closed it out with a 3-run job in the 5th, one of his 2 hits on the day.  Brett Gardner continued to look better at the plate, singling to get himself back to the Mendoza Line and walking twice.  But he also got caught stealing for the 4th time this year, so clearly something needs to be worked out there.  So and Mo handled the 8th and 9th again and the Yankees head towards the rest of May at 16-9.

There was some bad pitching, but mostly good.  And there was some good offense, but mostly bad.  A-Rod went 0-9 with 4 Ks in the series and has just 3 hits and 1 RBI since his 6-ribbie game against Baltimore last weekend, dropping his season BA to .274.  Also, Robbie Cano left the game in the 9th with a bruised hand.  The Yankees have already announced that he's day-to-day, so that's something worth watching heading into this coming week.

Stat Of The Night

0.

That was the number of earned runs that Rafael Soriano allowed tonight in the 8th inning to preserve a 1-run lead in the eventual 5-4 Yankee win.

I know!  I didn't believe it at first either when I read that in the box score, but I swear it's true.  The guy actually managed to hold the lead.  Who knew he had that in him?  It's like Sterling always says, you just can't predict baseball.

Slump Busting Like You Read About

(Ahhh, the sweet smell of home runs.  Courtesy of The AP)

It wouldn't be an unfair statement if you said that the 2 worst non-Posada offensive players for the Yankees so far this season have been Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.  Gardy lost the "vs. righty" leadoff role almost as soon as Joe gave it to him after ST and Swish's power numbers coming into last night were only slightly better than Derek Jeter's.

Last night all that changed, however, as Gardy and Swish sparked the Yankee offensive outburst in the 5th inning that effectively ended the game.  Swish went 3-4 with 3 R, 4 RBI, a walk, and his first home run of the season.  Coincidentally it was his first hit from the left side of the plate this season* (* - probably not true) and it was good to see Swish smiling again as he crossed the plate after hitting the homer in the 7th.  His numbers this year still don't like that great overall (.237/.351/.303 w/ 3 XBH), but last night was a positive sign that he could be turning it around.

Gardner continued his recent power surge that has come out of nowhere in the last week with a HR and a 2B, giving him 5 XBH, 3 of them HR, over his last 6 games.  He also drew a walk, stole a base, and scored 3 runs.  Gardner's line after last night is also nothing to write home about (.169/.229/.385), but at least he's starting to make contact and make hard contact at that.  His 21 Ks in 65 ABs is a gross number, by any standards, and these last couple of games suggest that Gardy might be getting away from his overly patient approach and starting to swing at the strikes pitchers are throwing his way.

With the way The Horse, Cano, Martin, and C-Grand have started the season, the Yankee offense has already been plenty dangerous.  If Swish and Gardy start heating up now, the lineup becomes even more so.  Last night was just one game, but it looked like a step in the right direction.

Example # 2,354,728 For Why The Mets Organization Is A Joke

"...It's been widely reported that the franchise has around $430 million in bank debt. But a potential investor who spoke to Fortune on condition of anonymity points out that the team's liabilities are closer to $625 million, from a buyer's perspective...

... Mets financial statements disclose another $100 million in what the team calls "contingent liabilities." Much of that is deferred compensation still due to players long gone from the Mets roster. The documents give two examples of these liabilities: Bobby Bonilla, who left the team in 1996 and has $1.2 million per year coming to him for the next 25 years, and Bret Saberhagen, who left in 1995 and is owed $250,000 annually through 2029." (via Fortune)

And people say the Yankees were dumb for giving Soriano $35 mil for 3 years.  At least they're handing out checks to players who are still ACTIVE IN THE GAME OF BASEBALL.  Compared to these contingent liabilities, the Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, Damaso Marte, and Nick Johnson contracts were highway robbery for the Yanks.

Just another day in the life of the most poorly managed organization in professional sports.  And another easy layup of a blog for me.  Thank you, Wilpons.  Thank you.

/secretly wishes I was Bret Saberhagen right now

Slow Day Mini-Linkapalooza

I'll be honest, I am hung over as a bastard today, so the synapses aren't all firing upstairs.  What's the best way around that?  Links.

- Will at IIATMS shows us what we all already knew.  Bartolo Colon is a badass.

- Eric Schultz at TYA compiles everything you could ever want to know  about this supposed circulatory issue that Phil Hughes has.

- Mike Axisa at RAB breaks down just how awful Nick Swisher has been so far in 2011.  An ISO only slightly higher than Jeter's?  Sheesh.

- And no surprise here, but Kevin Kernan at The Post is still an idiot.

And as always, I bring this visual peace offering to make up for my horrible blogging today.  This time we've got Blake Lively as a redhead.  Enjoy.

Keep building the AB4ARmy, people!  "Like" AB4AR on The Book.  And if you already do, find somebody else you know and get them to "Like" it too.

The Sh*t List Gets Its Newest Member

(BOOOOOOOO!!!  Courtesy of The AP)

Rafael Soriano, COME ON DOWN!!!!  You've just been elected the newest member of the AB4AR Shit List!!

/standing ovation from everybody who hates Soriano right now

After 10.1 innings of 12-hit, 8-walk, 9-earned run baseball with a 7.84/5.55/6.58 ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash and a BB/9 rate that is HIGHER than your current K/9 rate, all adding up to -0.2 WAR, I think you've more than earned this honor.  And the mopey, seemingly indifferent attitude that you have carried with you along with this horrible performance should help ensure that you stay on the List for some time to come.

Congratulations, jackass.

Updated List:

A.J. Burnett
Damaso Marte
Kei Igawa
Nick Johnson
Randy Levine
Joe's Match-up Binder
** Rafael Soriano** (Inducted 4/27/11)

Ouch. My Dick

(Guess which person in this video represents Yankee fans and which person represents Rafael Soriano)

Question of the Night:  As a fan, what's a bigger kick in the junk?  Having your $35 million setup man puke all over his shoes to turn a 1-0 9th-inning deficit into a 2-0 9th-inning deficit to waste a brilliant start by A.J. Burnett or having your $35 million setup man shit the bed to turn a 2-1 8th-inning lead into a 3-2 8th-inning deficit to waste a damn good start by Ivan Nova?

Obviously the correct answer is blowing the lead, because that takes a win off the board.  But you could also call it a trick question because getting kicked in the junk sucks equally every time it happens.

Soriano will get roasted tomorrow and rightfully so.  After tonight we can officially say he has sucked so far.

Rafael Soriano: The New Kyle Farnsworth?

(I don't know what you're smiling about now, Raffy.)

 Let me preface this by saying there is no statistical support for this post.  In fact, if you check Farnsworth's B-R page, you'll find that his first 10 appearances as a Yankee were actually far better than Soriano's, so this is strictly my personal opinion based on what I've seen so far.  But as I sat in my armchair last night watching/screaming at the TV during the 9th inning when Soriano idiotically, and almost smugly, pointed to the sky to let his infielders try and catch a pop up that landed about 10 feet from him for a leadoff single and then threw a horrible 2-strike pitch to Paul Konerko to give up the insurance RBI single, I was overcome by a strange feeling.  It was a feeling I haven't had for a few years now, ever since Kyle Farnsworth was traded, but it was that same feeling I used to have when he took the mound.  The feeling that I never know what is going to happen when Soriano takes the mound, and I instantly start thinking the worst when he's pitching.

His performances thus far have been rather Farnsworthian in their consistent inconsistency and their absolute inability to ever be somewhere in the middle.  Soriano started off with 2 strong outings, then had his 4-run meltdown against Minnesota when he couldn't throw a strike.  He followed that up with 2 clean outings and then had his 3-hit, 1-walk, 2-run near disaster against Texas.  And then last night he looked very shaky in the 9th inning of a 1-run game, effectively killing the chance of a Yankee miracle in the bottom half after having 3 pretty good outings prior.  All of that adds up to a 6.75 ERA, 6.13 xFIP, 17 baserunners allowed in 9.1 IP (7 via BB), and only 6 Ks.  Not exactly what I was expecting for $35 mil for 3 years.

But beyond the performances themselves, the approach has been the most frustrating thing about watching Soriano, and the thing that most makes me recall the horrible days of Farnsworth.  Soriano is inconsistent with his fastball location, he isn't attacking hitters with it because of the inconsistency, and when he does get ahead in counts he suddenly goes away from being aggressive with the fastball and tries to get cute with his slider, a pitch that hasn't served him well so far in 2011.  And as soon as a runner gets on base he becomes even more picky with his pitch selection and location and he gets himself into trouble.

Soriano is a power pitcher, and I understand that his fastball velocity hasn't quite been there early on, but that shouldn't change his approach.  Everything works off the fastball and when he's getting ahead in the count with it, he needs to stick with it.  If he's going to try for a corner, try with the the heater, not a sloppy slider.  Attack hitters, force them to take a defensive swing because they aren't sure if you're going to throw another fastball or waste a pitch.  Don't allow them to get back into a hitter's count by throwing junk and give them a fighting chance when they get to a point where they KNOW you're throwing a fastball.

All of this crap was enough to make me want to throw my beer bottle through the TV screen when Farnsy was the one doing it, and that was when I expected him to do those things because I knew he sucked.  Soriano does not suck.  He's a better pitcher than Farnsworth, with better stuff, but he's not using it to his advantage right now.  Dude needs to sack up and stop tip-toeing around hitters.

And for the love of God, get your sorry ass off the mound and catch the pop up next time!

Hughes Suffers Setback Today

These are never words you want to hear from your manager when describing a pitcher's side session leading up to a potential rehab start:

"Not good."  "... didn't bounce back like we thought it would."  "... obviously a setback." - via Mark Feinsand 

"I don't feel so good about it now.  I'm concerned." - via Jack Curry

Unfortunately for Yankee fans, those are the words coming from Joe's mouth today after Phil Hughes' session was cut short after a few pitches because his arm had no life and his pitches had no stuff.  The rehab start is obviously off and Hughes' return to the rotation now becomes a big fat question mark.

A few weeks ago, when I was discussing the situation, I said that a plan needed to be made to address Hughes' problem and "if it means going out in the 'pen during his side sessions and getting a gun on him while he tries to correct the mechanical flaws, the fine.  That's a solid starting point.  But if that doesn't help, then medical solutions need to be looked at, be they MRIs, scopes, rest, whatever."  Well I think it's safe to say that after today's results, it's time for the MRIs, the scopes, the rest, and whatever because throwing isn't working.

In the mean time, let's all keep praying that Freddy and Bartolo can keep their 2005 resurrection going.

Joe Broke All Kinds Of Bullpen Commandments (On Easter)

(He didn't carry them all the way down the mountain for you to break them, Joe)

There's nothing surprising about Joe Girardi making bad bullpen decisions.  In all honesty, it feels like he's made more bad ones than good ones since taking over as manager.  Maybe it's his backwards way of thinking when it comes to 'pen management, maybe it's the fear of getting second guessed if he thinks outside the box, maybe it just comes with being a guy named "Joe" who manages the Yankees.  We all know the last one wasn't a bullpen genius either.  Whatever the case, I've come to expect the worst when it comes to bullpen decisions from Joe and yesterday was no exception.  But to commit that many bullpen atrocities on Easter Sunday?  That's practically grounds for excommunication from humanity.  5 commandments broken in just a few hours.  5!!  Let's review them.

- Thou shalt not take thy veteran starter out of the game when he is pitching well and does not have a high pitch count.

Just in case anybody has forgotten, Freddy Garcia was on the mound yesterday.  Not Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances or some other young guy who is having his innings and pitch count carefully monitored.  Freddy Garcia is a 12-year MLB veteran who should have no questions about his arm strength anymore.  If Joe was concerned about how little he had been used and that being a factor in his decision, then that's his fault for not using Garcia enough early in the year.  The Yankees didn't bring him in to pitch short innings, they brought him in to provide LENGTH.  And that's just what he was doing yesterday, to the tune of 6 dominant shutout innings.  When a 12-year veteran is giving you that kind of outing, you don't take him out until he shows signs of breaking down.

- Thou shalt let thine reliable relievers finish an inning, even if they get into trouble.

Dave Robertson has been lights out this year.  Dave Robertson was called in to pitch the 8th inning because Sour Puss was unavailable.  Dave Robertson gave up 2 hits in the 8th inning yesterday, but had also gotten 2 outs and hadn't allowed any runs when Joe decided to pull him.  Luke Scott was coming to the plate.  There was no reason to take D-Rob out of the game in that situation.  Relievers are going to give up hits, it happens.  As long as they don't give up runs and hold the lead, who cares how they get there?  Luke Scott isn't exactly a world beater down at the bottom of the Baltimore lineup, and D-Rob is tough against lefties.  If you bring him in to pitch the 8th, let him pitch the 8th!!

- Thou shalt bring in thy lefty specialist when the situation calleth for it.

According to a LoHud postgame report, Joe decided to bring Mariano in to finish the 8th instead of Boone Logan because he didn't want to use Logan for just one batter.  ...  ...  Huh?  What???  That's what Boone Logan is there for!!!  he's a lefty specialist.  You bring him in specifically for situations like that: 2 on, 2 out, 1-run lead, lefty batter (Scott) at the plate.  Anything you get beyond that from Logan is gravy.  Now granted he provided a whole lot of gravy when he did get the call in the 10th and 11th, but to say you don't want to use your lefty specialist out of the 'pen to face a lefty because you don't want to use him for one batter is asinine.

- Thou shalt not bring in thy 41-year-old closer for a 4-out save in a game in April.

I know Joe's logic on this one.  It was a close game, we wanted to win, Mo was working on 4 days' rest.  But that still doesn't change the fact that he's already been used quite a bit this year, he was coming off a rough outing in which he threw more pitches than usual, and he's 41 freaking years old!!!  He doesn't need to be in a game for extra outs, throwing extra pitches in April!!  Now you've wasted another outing from him when he didn't have his best stuff and threw too many pitches and in turn wasted a chance to use him tonight or tomorrow because he threw so many pitches.  If Joe is Linus, then Mo is his security blanket.  The only problem is, Joe is squeezing the blanket too tight and ripping it.  Dude needs to let it go and trust his other pitchers. 

- Thou shalt not have inconsistent different standards for thine reliable relievers.

Joba comes in in the 7th and gives up a 2-run homer, cutting a comfortable 3-run lead to a tight 1-run lead, yet he is allowed to finish the inning.  D-Rob comes in in the 8th, doesn't give up a single run, but gets yanked at the first perceived sign of trouble because he let 2 runners get on.  Boone Logan, a lefty specialist, is not desirable to come in and get 1 lefty batter out, but he's OK to use for 1+ innings against righties and lefties with a long rain delay in between?  Somewhere along the line, Joe needs to establish some consistency with these guys and stick to it.  There's no reason that D-Rob shouldn't be given the same length of leash as Joba, if not longer, given his results.

Let go of your pre-ordained plans, Joe.  Let go of your stupid roles, your stupid rules, and your stupid bullpen binder.  Trust your veteran starters to pitch well, and trust your middle relievers to get the job done holding leads.  If they don't, so be it.  It happens, everybody has a bad day.  But you have to at least give them the opportunity.  You put all your trust in Mo and even he cracks every now and then.  You need to have that same trust in the Jobas, D-Robs, and Boone Logans of the world for the bullpen to be successful.

Yankees Overcome Weather & Joe Girardi To Win In 11

(Well it took a while, but at least we can celebrate.  Courtesy of The AP)

Well today was an adventure, wasn't it?  The game starts off with single, home run, walk, walk for the first 4 Yankee batters, and it looked like another woodshed beating of Orioles starter Jake Arrieta was in the cards.  But Arrieta got it together and managed to throw 6 innings of 1-run ball from there to keep his team in the game, striking out 9 Yankees in the process.

Arrieta was countered by Freddy Garcia, who turned in a" Godfather: Part II"-version of his first start of the season, again going 6 shutout innings, again allowing just 2 hits, but this time also having 7 Ks.  He had good life on his fastball, consistently reaching the upper-80s, and he changed speeds brilliantly between that, his slider, and his curveball, generating 15 swinging strikes and keeping the Oriole lineup off balance all day.  When he has all 3 pitches working, he can be tough to get good swings against, and he had all 3 working and then some today.

Unfortunately for Freddy, he must have been pitching too well for Joe's liking, as Girardi inexplicably pulled him after 6 innings, with a pitch count only at 90, and after he had just struck out 2 batters the previous inning.  Garcia showed no signs of tiring, no signs of losing his command, but Joe's position as a slave to his bullpen binder and a slave to his predefined bullpen roles forced him to make the first of multiple bad bullpen decisions that cost Garcia a win and the Yankees the lead (Trust me, this will covered in much greater detail tomorrow).

After Joba gave up a 2-run homer and Mo coughed up the lead for the 2nd straight outing in the 9th, the Yanks traded 0s with the O's into the 11th, where, after a rain delay, they managed to strike for 3 runs thanks to some timely hitting and bad fielding from Baltimore.  It wasn't pretty, and it certainly didn't end up finishing the way it looked like it would at the beginning of the day, but the Yanks get another W, they sweep the series, and they now sit 12-6 heading into their series with the White Sox tomorrow.

Other quick game notes:

- Jorge looked awful again: 0-4 with 2 Ks.  With as bad as he has been at the plate, you have to wonder at what point the Jesus-O-Meter will start percolating again.

- No Soriano in the 8th today?  What was up with that?  At least Joe didn't go COMPLETELY by the book with that call, but I'd still like to hear an explanation.

- 4-6 for The Captain today, including a 2B.  Sure, not all of them were well struck, but at least they found holes.

- Brett Gardner is flat out lost at the plate.  0-5 today with 4 Ks for his first golden sombrero of the year.  I know he had a couple XBH yesterday, but it's time for Joe to start thinking about getting Andruw Jones some more at-bats.

How Close Is Kevin Millwood To Joining The Yankee Rotation?

Of all the WTF-eliciting pitching signings this season, the most bizarre has to be the recent signing of Kevin Millwood,a guy the Yankees looked at multiple times and decided they didn't see anything they liked and a guy who the rest of MLB said the same thing about when he didn't end up getting one offer to join a team before the season started.

After they did sign him, Millwood justified everybody's lack of interest early by looking downright awful in his first couple of MiL outings.  His fastball was sitting low-to-mid-80s, his secondary stuff was nonexistent, and he seemed like he'd be out of a Yankee uniform before he even had a chance to wear on.  Then he had a solid start in Double-A, earned a call up to Triple-A for another start last night, and wouldn't you know it, the old bag of crap actually pitched alright.

"The 36-year-old right-hander allowed two runs across seven innings of work, striking out three and getting nine ground balls against just one walk and three air outs. Sixty of his 95 pitches were strikes (63.2%). Donnie Collins spoke to a scout who clocked Millwood at 85-86 mph mostly, though he did touch 89 on occasion." (via RAB).

Not a bad outing, but still some causes for concern.  The velocity still isn't there, it's even lower than Phil Hughes' has been, which could get Millwood into trouble if his secondary stuff isn't there and his fastball location is a little bit off.  The fact that he put the leadoff runner on in every inning also doesn't bode well for his future in the Majors, if he has one.  You make mistakes like that in Triple-A with diminished stuff, you give up a couple runs; you make mistakes like that against the Fraud Sawx or the White Sox, you get lit up.

Millwood has time for one more outing before his opt-out clause kicks in, and although he hasn't lit the world on fire in his auditions, the fact that the Yankees keep throwing him out there against better competition and the fact that he hasn't completely blown up leads me to believe he's going to get a shot with the Yankees after his next Triple-A start.  The Yankees have been pushing Ivan Nova back in the rotation due to all the rain delays, so he appears to be falling out of favor with Joe early.  Unless he comes back strong in his next start and looks more like he did in his first outing of the season, Millwood will probably be taking his spot next time around.  Is it the right move?  Hard to say without having seen Millwood against big league hitters yet.  But it does show just how desperate the Yankees already are for starting pitching.

(P.S.- Did anybody have Garcia, Colon, AND Millwood in the same Yankee rotation at any time this season in their office pool?  I know I sure as hell didn't.)

B-E-A-T-D-O-W-N

You want the laundry list of awesomeness from tonight's game?  OK.

- 14 hits and 5 walks tonight from the Yankee offense.

- Every starter except Nick Swisher had at least 1 hit.  And even Swisher still managed a walk and a run scored.

- 5 players with 2+ runs scored, 4 players with 2+ hits, and 3 players with 2+ RBI.

- Another HR from Jorge.  He ain't hitting much, but he's hitting everything in the air and over the fence.

- 2 more HR, 3 runs scored, and 4 RBI for Russell Martin.  When do the damn ASG ballots come out?

- 8 lockdown innings from CC in a completely dominant performance.  He had everything working tonight except for the 1 bad pitch to Adam Jones in the 7th.  If the game wasn't so far out of reach in the 9th, he would have been out to finish it.  That's how low his pitch count was, that's how good he was tonight.

- 2 XBH (1 2B, 1 HR) and 6 RBI from the Horse in another vintage Horse-like performance.  He hasn't missed a beat since coming back from his few days off.

Even Brett Gardner managed a 2-run homer.  When that's happening, you know it's a good night for the Yankees.  I just feel bad for whoever starts for Baltimore tomorrow, because the Yankee offense was straight up murderous tonight.  Big thanks to Buddy Carlyle for wandering onto the mound and getting the last 3 outs.  I'm assuming he won some sort of fan contest or something to get on the mound.

ANOTHER Rainout

In honor of the Yankees being rained out for the 47th time this year, I leave you with this.



I'll talk about baseball tomorrow.

The 5 Most Interesting Stats Of The Early Season

No work for me today, so I actually have some time to peruse the web and check out things I've been missing.  Part of that perusal included thumbing through the FanGraphs pages of Yankee players.  Based on the early season limited sample size, we can't put full weight on these numbers, but that doesn't change the fact that some of the stats are damn interesting.  Here are 5 of the best ones I noticed:

Jorge Posada's .300 ISO & 26.3 HR/FB%

It's no secret that Jorge hasn't done much other than hit home runs this year, but the rate at which he's doing it, as shown by these stats, is way beyond anything he's ever done.  The .300 ISO is a full 60 points higher than his previous career high, which he set all the way back in 2000.  And the HR/FB rate is his highest since 2003 and almost twice his career average coming into the season.  He isn't hitting very much, but at least when he is he's got some oomph on the swing.  A product of not getting beaten up behind the plate?  Perhaps.

Alex Rodriguez's 1.271 OPS/ .510 wOBA

I know he looked really good in ST, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find anybody, myself included, who thought The Horse would be THIS good so far.  He's going to be 36 this year, he hasn't been able to stay healthy recently, and the general consensus was that he was beginning the natural decline of a player his age.  And right now he has an OPS that's 200+ points higher than his previous career high and a wOBA that's 60+ points higher.  Interestingly, both of his previous career highs in these categories came in his monster '07 season with the Yankees.  It's clear by these numbers that when he's healthy, The Horse is still one of the top 5-10 best hitters in the game.

Phil Hughes' -4.2 wCT

With all the talk about his lack of arm strength and velocity on his fastball, it's a surprise to find that the cutter is the pitch most down statistically this season for Phil.  Sure, the fastball value is way down from last year, but it's still only slightly below average this year.  The cutter is way down and way down below zero.  Now that could be a byproduct of the struggles with the fastball.  Maybe people just aren't seeing them differently.  But this value shows that Hughes is definitely being hurt by his second-best pitch being wildly ineffective too.

Bartolo Colon's 2.72 xFIP

As if we needed more proof that Bartolo Colon has exceeded expectations so far, just take a look at his xFIP.  It's almost a full run below his ERA, showing that he's been better than the basic numbers and results actually show.  His stuff has been electric, his control has been impeccable, and even though his caloric intake is still probably too high, Bartolo Colon has been one of the best Yankee pitchers anyway you look at it.

P.S.- CC's xFIP is 3.40, just for the sake of comparison.

Derek Jeter's 72.9 GB%

This one should probably fall under the "Disturbing" category instead of "Interesting."  Despite working with Kevin Long in the offseason to tweak his swing mechanics, despite him and Long and Girardi continuing to say he's doing the right things and will get there, and despite every announcer on TV saying Jeter "looks" like he's about to break out, Jeter's 2011 has started off worse than his 2010 went.  His swing still looks slow, he's got little to no power to show, and the high groundball rate he had last year has increased.  Again, small early sample size but the results are not encouraging.  Jeter needs to start getting the ball into the air and with a little authority.  Maybe some hitting lessons with A-Rod?

How Wrong Was I About Bartolo Colon?

"Fat guy with a nasty sinker..." Courtesy of the AP)

Thinking back to when the signing happened, the general consensus around the blogosphere was that Bartolo Colon would be a longshot to make the team at best.  And while I acknowledged that he was a low-risk/high-reward signing because of the deal and anything positive the Yankees got from him would be gravy, I did take time to point out how little I actually expected from Colon in my "Back of the Rotation" rant in February.

"Yeah, Joe.  I knew that guy too.  And that was 6 years, 40 pounds, and a dozen-ish injuries ago.  The 2011 Bartolo Colon doesn't even look like he could make it up a flight of stairs without stopping for oxygen and a 5-Dollar Footlong halfway up." (on Joe's comment that the Bartolo Colon he remembered was a good pitcher)

I'll admit I was a bit harsh on him there, but at the same time I wasn't inaccurate with what I was saying.  Colon did, and still does, look like a hot mess sundae physically.  So that part isn't too bad.

"Look at the guy's damn boobs!  Look at them!  I don't know whether to throw up or just crop out the face part of the picture and rub one out.  Bartolo Colon is flat out DONE.  D-U-N.  He's a low-risk, high-reward option for the rotation... but that doesn't mean he should get the nod over younger, healthier, more in shape pitchers who will almost assuredly give the Yankees more innings than he will." (my take on Colon getting a rotation competition spot over some of the younger guys)

OOF and DA for me on that one.  His previous 2 outings were a sign that he still had something in the tank, and last night's sterling performance validates it.  It's a fact, Bartolo Colon can still get it done on the mound.  He isn't going to win any Mr. America competitions, but the guy still has good stuff and still knows how to use it.  He put on a clinic last night before he tired in the 7th.  His fastball had great life and continued to maintain (and even increase) its velocity later into the game, he located it perfectly, kept the ball down in the zone, and basically overmatched a legitimately good Major League lineup.  Colon did what A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes have not been able to do consistently this year in give the Yankees some length in an outing, attack hitters, throw strikes, and generate swings and misses.  And now he has to be considered a staple of this rotation moving forward, at least until he shows he is incapable of carrying the workload.

I brought the question to the table last night on The Book, and while I will say that it is still a bit too early for me to start cooking a big plate of crow for myself, I have to admit that I was wrong about Bartolo.  He has been impressive and deserves to hold a spot in the rotation for as long as he can.  There's no way to predict how much more he'll give the Yankees going forward, but even with what he's already done I think we can call this signing by Cash a success.

In Happier Bullpen News...

(It's FIII-YAAAAHHH!!!!!  Courtesy of Swanny Duckson)

I think the Yankees have found their new OFFICIAL fireman in Dave Robertson.  Dude was straight money last night in striking out 2 to leave the bases loaded and preserve A.J.'s then 4-3 lead.  If I would have been watching that game, there's a chance I would have been kissing the TV screen as he walked off the mound before YES went to commercial.

Even though Joe doesn't seem to have any clue about how he wants to use D-Rob (evidenced by the fact that D-Rob is up in the 'pen warming in almost every game and sometimes on off-days), when he has gotten the call Robertson has been solid all year.  Only five baserunners allowed in his 6 shutout innings of work over 7 appearances, 10.50 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, and a 1.73 FIP that proves he hasn't just been getting lucky?  Yeah, I think that qualifies him for official "Fireman" status.

Sorry, Sour Puss.  You're out.  Stop being a baby and learn how to pitch in adverse weather conditions and then come back and talk to me.  Now somebody hit the music!

Opinions Varied (And Mostly Wrong) On A.J.'s Start Last Night

(The walk of semi-shame.  Courtesy of The AP)

"Burnett pitched pretty well for the most part.... " - Chad from LoHud.

Wrong.  More like he pitched mediocre for the most part and OK for the least part.

"A.J. Burnett did what he has done all season, giving the Yankees a solid start." - Tamar at IIATMS.

Wrong.  The start wasn't that solid and wasn't what he's done all season.

"A.J. Burnett was frustrating in this one, but kept the Yankees in the game. He allowed only three runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of work, but walked six on 105 pitches. He left in the sixth with the bases loaded and the Yankees clinging to a 4-3 lead that looked tenuous at best." - Mike J-G at TYA.

Closer, but still giving Burnett too much credit for the low number of runs allowed and not enough scorn for the lack of length to his start. 

"After three encouraging starts, A.J. Burnett reverted back to his old ways on Tuesday, and he has his bullpen to thank for the fact that his ERA actually went down....

He walked five guys, and four of those free passes went to players hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. You just can’t walk Jose Molina, Corey Patterson, and Jayson Nix (twice) and live to tell about it....

... he did not pitch well tonight at all. Leaving the game with the lead had far more to do with Robertson and his offense than anything else. Hopefully this is just a hiccup, but who knows with Burnett." - Mike A. of RAB.

Bingo.  As usual, Mike was spot on with his brutally honest and completely accurate assessment of Burnett's outing.  Sure the 6 Ks and more swings and misses look nice, but there was too much of Bad A.J. in the outing: constant bounced curveballs, not enough strikes, inability to throw strike 1, multiple meetings at the mound.  He didn't attack hitters the way he has in his earlier starts, and he tried to tip-toe around guys after giving up hits or walks to them earlier in the night.

If people want to try to look for silver linings in the outing last night because he's pitched decent so far, that's fine.  But don't sugarcoat the fact that overall, A.J. did not pitch a good game last night and the numbers and the eye test for anybody that saw the game are proof.  That is the plain fact of it and to try to say otherwise is just wrong.  It's bad enough that the Yankees have had to treat the guy with kid gloves.  The blogosphere shouldn't be doing the same thing.

What Just Happened?

Where in Joe's 40,000-page bullpen binder is there a section that talks about bringing in your scheduled starting pitcher for Friday to pitch the 10th inning of a tie game on Tuesday night when he still has 3 arms available in his bullpen?

Somebody better explain to me what the hell just happened...