Monday, May 2, 2011

AB4AR's State Of The Yankees After The First Month

 (Swish is just as happy as I am about the first 25 game.  Courtesy of The AP)

It's only been 1 calendar month (plus a few days) and only 25 games for the Yankees this year.  And I'm smart enough to know that 1 month and 25 games is not a sound basis for evaluating the overall performance of players nor for predicting what the rest of the season will hold.  But it does offer enough of a sample size to make some broad statements about the positives and negatives of the team as a whole, and also provide some slight insights as to what the future may hold and what adjustments may need to be made moving forward.

Overall there is a lot to like about the first month of the Yankee season.  The offense is getting solid production from some of those expected to perform well (Cano, A-Rod) and some who have been pleasant surprises (Martin, Chavez).  Guys like Teix and C-Grand have bounced back early from subpar 2010 campaigns to help carry the torch and pick up the slack for what has been a rotation in flux and some slumping veterans.  That being said, the rotation really hasn't been as bad as expected, certainly not as bad as one might think it could have been with Phil Hughes' early struggles and trip to the DL.  CC is doing his job at the top as the ace and the rest are filling in behind him and offering solid contributions, especially A.J., whose pairing with Larry Rothschild seems to be working very well.  And despite some bumps in the road, the bullpen has been solid thanks to the core of Mo, Sour Puss, Joba, D-Rob, and Boone Logan.

Behind the basic numbers, though, there are some black marks on the offense.  The results have been 'feast or famine' in that the home run is accounting for over 57% of the team's runs early and there have been multiple instances of potential big innings being thwarted by failure to get hits with RISP or the always-dreaded GIDP.  And as great as the Cano-Horse-Teix-C-Grand-Martin quintet has been, the Jeter-Swish-Gardner-Posada foursome that makes up the rest of the lineup has been equally awful, balancing out to a .251/.335/.474 team tripleslash.  They are still 1st in baseball in OPS and 2nd with a .353 wOBA, but the offense has yet to put together a significant streak of games where everybody has been producing and doing the right things at the plate, and that has cost them a few close games early on.  It's scary/sad to think about what their numbers and their record could be if they were getting more consistent production from everybody.

The pitching, in my opinion, has exceeded expectations so far.  The starting rotation has combined for an 11-5 record in their 25 starts with a respectable 3.88 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, numbers inflated slightly by Phil Hughes' horrific results.  Eliminate him and the Yankees have 4 starters with ERAs below 3.93 (and 3 below 2.25), WHIPs below 1.28, and an average of 7.59 K/9.  And Ivan Nova has put together 2 consecutive solid starts to help ease the concern about his status moving forward.  The bullpen has been even better, especially when you factor out Nova and Freddy Garcia's bad 1.2 innings, all averaging out to a team ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash of 3.72/3.72/4.02, which isn't going to win any awards but has certainly been more than enough to win and better than I expected.

The biggest thing the Yankees have been lacking has been consistency, both at the plate and on the mound.  If they can establish that and get the offense and pitching on the same page, they can be very dangerous moving forward.  The biggest issue they need to address is the future of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.  Their early number suggest that their age has finally caught up with them, and Joe will need to make the call about whether or not Jeter should be moved down in the lineup and whether or not Jesus Montero should be called up to replace Posada in the lineup if the 2 elder statesmen's performance doesn't pick up.  It's not a situation that anybody is going to want to address, but if things continue down the path Jeter and Posada are already on, it's a decision that will have to be made.

A plan also needs to be put in place for solidifying the rotation if guys like Garcia and Colon either start to fade (possible) or get hurt (likely).  As good as they have been, their history suggests that these results won't hold for the rest of the year.  And with Hughes on the shelf indefinitely and Kevin Millwood opting out after his Triple-A bomb job last week (thank God), internal options are a little light so the kids in Triple-A or potential trade options should be explored now so that the team can be prepared to react and fill the gap if the time comes.

All in all, I would give the Yankees a B for the first month, close to a B+.  To lose Phil Hughes and not miss a beat in the rotation has been huge.  If they can get some consistency from the offense, better results from Soriano in the 8th, and stay healthy, the summer should be a fun time to be a Yankee fan.

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