There's One...

And hopefully the first of many more.  After stumbling and bumbling through the series in Tampa, the Yankees were on their game tonight and got off their season-opening schneid with a 6-2 win over the Baltimore Showalters.  Ivan The Terrible Great led the way in his season debut and was downright FILTHY.  His fastball was mid-90s all night, his curveball was nasty, his slider was nasty, and he was aggressive with all of them.  Dude didn't look very good at all in Spring Training but he turned in the best outing by a Yankee starter so far in this young season, which means only one thing.

YA JUST CAN'T PREDICT BASEBALL, SUZYN!!!

More on the game tomorrow morning.  Frankie, tune up the band...

A Shift In Defending The Yankees?

One of the more interesting subplots to this past weekend's season-opening series was the generous use of the defensive shift by the Rays against the big boppers in the Yankee lineup.  The shift is nothing new for them, as they employ it more than any other team in baseball, and nothing new for hitters like Mark Teixeira.  But to see it used against hitters like A-Rod and C-Grand was a new wrinkle, at least for me, and raises a question on whether or not the Rays uncovered a new way to defend against the powerful Yankee lineup.

Employing the shift against Teix is almost commonplace nowadays when he's hitting from the left side.  With the way he's become a pull-happy, all-or-nothing hitter from the left side over the past few seasons, it's something that any smart team would do.  Teix still hasn't shown enough in terms of his ability to consistently hit the other way from the left side to dissuade teams from using the shift and it worked to the Rays' advantage this weekend.  The Horse and Curtis don't have reputations as being prime candidates for the shift, at least not to the degree that Teix does, but in looking at their career pull/opposite way splits, it's not all that surprising that the Rays utilized the shift against them as well.  For the sake of comparison...

Mark Teixeira (left-handed):

- OPS Pull Side- 1.200 career/ 1.000 in 2011
- OPS Opp. Way- .632 career/ .187 in 2011

- wOBA Pull Side- .502 career/ .492 in 2011
- wOBA Opp. Way- .265 career/ .080 in 2011

Alex Rodriguez:

- OPS Pull- 1.164 career/ .916 in 2011
- OPS Opp.- .872 career/ .664 in 2011

- wOBA Pull- .490 career/ .393 in 2011
- wOBA Opp.- .358 career/ .280 in 2011

Curtis Granderson:

- OPS Pull- 1.219 career/ 1.494 in 2011
- OPS Opp.- .720 career/ .517 in 2011

- wOBA Pull- .512 career/ .625 in 2011
- wOBA Opp.- .303 career/ .218 in 2011

Game 3 Wrap-Up

(The look of winlessness.  Courtesy of The AP)

Another frustrating loss yesterday.  But at least we can all take solace in the fact that the last time the Yankees started the season 0-3 was 1998, and they ended up winning 114 in that regular season on their way to a World Series title.

Game Notes:

- I know he was too rich for their blood, but the Yankees probably should have signed Carlos Pena this offseason just so they wouldn't have to face him.  He cracked another HR off of Phil Hughes yesterday and went 6-12 w/ 2 HR, 3 R scored, and 7 RBI in the series.  Dude is the definition of a Yankee killer.

- Hughes pitched the best out of the 3 Yankee starters this weekend, although I don't know how much that matters when he only made it through 4.2.  His fastball velocity was up and he mixed his change in well, both of which are encouraging signs.  He just needs to be more efficient and finish guys off with 2 strikes.

- Rough day for Swish at the plate.  He came up twice with A-Rod and Teix on base, 2nd and 3rd and 1 out in the 4th inning and at the corners with 2 outs in the 6th, and couldn't bring them in.

- It wasn't an ideal situation, but David Phelps made his Yankee debut in the bottom of the 8th with his family in attendance, so tip of the cap to him.

F*ck Yeahs:

- Phelps: That less-than-ideal situation was 2 on and 1 out and Phelps handled himself very well in his Major League debut, getting a strikeout and a groundout to end the inning and the threat.

- A Rod: 1-3 with a 2B, BB, and a SB.  He was the most consistent hitter in the whole series and looked very smooth at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths.

Oh Nos:

- Jeremy Hellickson: I didn't really give him his due in my post-game rant, but he was very good yesterday.  He mixed his fastball and change incredibly well and kept the Yankee hitters off balance all day, and was very efficient with his pitch count.  Just a shutdown performance.

- Raul Ibanez: Went 0-4 at the plate with 4 LOB and had that ridiculous misplay on Matt Joyce's "triple" in the first inning that cost Hughes a run.

Next Up:

The cellar-dwelling, winless Yankees head to Baltimore to take on the undefeated, division-leading Orioles.  Yep, you read that correctly.  Ivan Nova takes on Brian Matusz, first pitch at 7:05PM EST.

Being On The Wrong Side Of A Season-Opening Sweep Sucks

I know all the traditional sayings that are going to come out after today- "Still a lot of baseball to play;" "You can't win 'em all;" "Better luck next time;" "It's just one series."  That's all true and I believe all of that.  And I think it was incredibly nice of the Yankees to hand out all those free eggs on the scoreboard today for the kids on Easter Sunday.  But starting the season off getting swept on the road is never a good look, especially not when you're arguably the deepest and most talented team in the Majors like the Yankees are.  The way they lost these 3 games this weekend was disconcerting, as it harked back to last year's ALDS and all the things that did them in.  There was shaky starting pitching, questionable managerial decisions when it came to handling the pitching staff, and the inability of the lineup to get a timely hit or 2 when they really needed one. Given the way that they closed Spring Training, it looked like the regulars were ready to go and would hit the ground running, and instead they came out and laid an egg in the season-opening series.  As a Yankee fan, that's a tough pill to swallow.

There's a difference between losing and losing because you're not playing good baseball, and the Yankees really didn't play good baseball this weekend, which is the biggest thing that's sticking in my craw right now.  None of their starting pitchers pitched into the 7th inning of any game; their pair of lefty relievers combined to allow 3 ER on 3 H and 3 BB in 2.1 IP (2 of the 3 ER against left-handed hitters); their offense combined to hit 5-25 with RISP in the 3 games; and their manager definitely overmanaged his ace starting pitcher in the 1st inning of the 1st game of the year, maybe overmanged his lineup yesterday by inserting the botch-tastic Eduardo Nunez in the SS spot for Jeter, and definitely undermanaged his bullpen yesterday by leaving Rapada in to face the right-handed Evan Longoria.  Whether it's the first 3 games of the season, the middle 3 games, or the last 3 games, that's sloppy baseball.

Jeremy Hellickson was good today, but he wasn't THAT good.  And Phil Hughes, as well as he threw the ball, fell victim to the same things that always kill him.  He wasn't efficient with his pitches, couldn't put guys away with 2 strikes when he needed to, and couldn't get out of innings clean when he got 2 outs.  As for Raul Ibanez being in the lineup in right field today?  Ummmm, yeesh!

(Courtesy of Mock Session, via RAB.)

Everything the Yankees did in this series seemed to be a little bit off and that's just not what you want to see from your team to start things off.

This is not the end of the world, and it shouldn't have anybody jumping off a bridge or ready to throw the towel in on the entire season.  That would be foolish.  But anybody who says they are OK with how the Yankees played in this opening series or accepts that they lost these 3 games is a bullshit liar.  Any fan, rational or irrational, would have been perfectly within their rights to expect the Yankees to win this series, or at least win one game.  And they are perfectly within their rights to be upset about the Yankees getting swept out of Tampa given how they played in the series.  It's over now, it can't be changed, and everybody (players, coaches, and fans) has to move on to the next series.  That being said, the Yankees need to get their shit together and play better baseball in that next series.  They're a step behind everything that's happening right now, and regardless of how many games are left that's not a good way to open the season.

Yanks Get Swept To Open The Season

Fuck indeed.

Game 2 Wrap-Up

(Courtesy of The AP)

Not exactly the start to the season that everybody was expecting, especially from the starting rotation.

Game Notes:

- Hiroki Kuroda wasn't very good in his first start that mattered as a Yankee.  He didn't have good command of any of his pitches and couldn't make a pitch when he needed to.  Like with CC the day before, a lesser pitcher probably gets taken out before the 5.2 innings that he pitched, so at least Kuroda gave the Yankees a little bit of length, but definitely not a strong outing.

- Despite putting 16 runners on base, the Yankees could never string together enough hits to get back into the game after going down 4-0 early and 6-2 after 6 innings.

- The Rays used the shift to their advantage on multiple occasions, getting Teix, C-Grand, and A-Rod to all hit into it for outs.  Hopefully other teams don't start employing this tactic against the Yankees regularly.

- The umpires correctly overturned a HR call to a ground-rule double in the bottom of the 7th after a fan reached over the wall and prevented Nick Swisher from making a catch on a ball hit by Evan Longoria.  Ironically enough, the fan was wearing a Derek Jeter jersey.

F*ck Yeahs:

- Swish: 1-3, 3-R HR, 2 BB.  Made Joe's decision to swap him and C-Grand in the lineup against a lefty look genius.

- C-Grand: 2-4, 3B, 2 R scored.  See statement above.

Oh Nos:

- Kuroda: Wasn't sharp in his Yankee debut- 5.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R (4 ER), 4 BB, 2 K.  Could never really find the command on any of his pitches.

- Eduardo Nunez: Went 1-3 w/ an RBI at the plate, but committed the error that led to Kuroda's 2 unearned runs.  Like reader Scott put it: "That guy is a liability" defensively.

- Joe Girardi: Followed up his questionable Opening Day 1st-inning IBB with the equally questionable decision to let Clay Rapada face right-handed hitters in the 7th inning.  Did he think Rapada's career slash against righties was a joke?

- Clay Rapada: In fairness to Girardi, if Rapada doesn't walk Pena and give up a hit to Joyce (the lefties he was in to face), the 7th inning doesn't turn out so bad.

Next Up:

The Yanks will look to salvage the series and avoid being on the wrong end of a sweep to open the season with a day game after a night game.  Phil Hughes faces Jeremy Hellickson this afternoon at 1:40 EST.

Joe's Not Going To Make This Season Easy On Me, Is He?

("Umm, Skip?  Why the hell are you out here?"  Courtesy of Reuters)

For the most part, Joe Girardi is the ideal type of guy to manage the New York Yankees.  He's level-headed, he's a former catcher, the position that usually lends itself well to becoming a good manager, he's played in New York before so he understands how the handle the pressure and media scrutiny, and he understands how to handle his players' personalities.  One area that he never seems to have a firm grasp on, though, is the management of his pitching staff.  It's nothing else if not inconsistent and I would describe it as meddlesome; a strategy almost always formulated based on matchup history and pages in a binder rather than the entirety of the situation playing out in real time on the field.  Yesterday was another classic example of Joe bowing to the numbers in the pages and not the game situation at hand, and it cost the Yankees 4 runs.

On paper, his decision yesterday to intentionally walk Sean Rodriguez to load the bases was solid.  There were 2 outs, runners in scoring position, Rodriguez had experienced some success hitting against CC in his career, and the hitter coming up behind Rodriguez had a career 4-35 batting line against CC.  That hitter, Carlos Pena, was also left-handed, playing into the almost always desirable lefty-on-lefty matchup.  But baseball games are not played on paper, and what was happening on the field over the course of that half inning was not captured in Joe's binder notes, could not be captured in his binder notes, and should have been just as big a determining factor in Joe's decision making as Pena's career stats against CC were, if not bigger.

Opening Day Game 1 Wrap-Up

(I don't know if this Rivera kid is going to make it.  Courtesy of The AP)

I'm going to try to take another step towards blog legitimacy and do game recaps for each game this year.  There might be a few that I miss here and there, but my plan is to get as many of them as I can and to do them the morning after the game's played.  For a first crack at it, yesterday's game certainly provided a lot of talking points, many of them centered around the Yankee pitching.  If there was one word to describe the events that unfolded during yesterday's game, it would be "bizarre."

Game Notes:

- CC struggled early, loading the bases in the bottom of the 1st inning after Joe decided to intentionally walk the immortal Sean Rodriguez and his .302 career wOBA to get to Carlos Pena.  It was definitely a case of overmanaging, as Joe wanted the lefty-lefty matchup with 2 outs.  Pena ended up hitting a grand slam on a 3-2 pitch to put the Rays ahead 4-0.

- After fighting back and touching up Tampa starter James Shields for 6 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings to take a 6-5 lead, the Yankee offense did their best impression of last year's ALDS and went dormant, failing to get a single hit in the final 4 innings.

- With runners on the corners and 1 out in the bottom of the 8th, the Yankees were bailed out by a possible missed sign when Jose Molina tried to squeeze bunt with 2 strikes.  He bunted foul, was out, and D-Rob finished off the inning by striking out Matt Joyce to preserve the lead.

- The most bizarre sight of all was Mo in the 9th, as it usually is when he doesn't convert the save.  He blew the save on just 5 pitches, allowing a leadoff single to Desmond Jennings and a game-tying riple to Ben Zobrist.  Then, after more intentional walks to load the bases and Eduardo Nunez entering the game as a 5th infielder, Mo gave up the game-winning hit to, you guessed it, Carlos Pena.

- Pena was 4-35 against CC in his career and 0-11 against Mo, and he picked up run-scoring hits off of both of them right after the previous hitter was intentionally walked to get to him.  #YaJustCan'tPredictBaseballSuzyn

F*ck Yeahs:

- The Horse: 2-3 w/ a double, 2 R, 2 BB.  Looked great at the plate and in the field.

- Raul Ibanez: Hit a 3-R HR in the 3rd to give the Yankees the lead. 4 RBI.

Oh Nos:

- C-Grand: 0-5 w/ 2 Ks.  Not the start we expected after the way he hit in camp.

- Mo: Hopefully I don't have to say this often, but Mo was off yesterday in taking the loss- 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB (both intentional), 1 K, 1 BS.

Next Up:

The Yanks will go for their first win of the season tonight in the 2nd game of this series.  Hiroki Kuroda will be on the hill for New York against David Price of Tampa.

Friday Afternoon "Nobody Is Even Reading This Because The Game Is On" Linkapalooza: 4/6

It's Opening Day, so obviously sitting around checking the Yankosphere isn't anybody's highest priority.  But that still won't stop me from giving the best of the best their props for a job well done.  So when you're done watching the game, come check out the best of the week that was.  Onto the links.

- On Monday, William Juliano of The Captain's Blog examined the Montero-for-Pineda trade through the lens of the recent trend of teams extending their young stars to long-term deals.

- EJ Fagan of TYA questioned the Montero-Pineda trade and explained why, given Pineda's recent injury issues, he wouldn't have made it.

- Brien Jackson of IIATMS took a stab at predicting how long Michael Pineda's rehab timetable will be.

- On Tuesday, Rebecca Glass of the recently resurrected This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes mused on Ivan Nova's spring struggles and why it's still important for him to pitch well this season.

- On Wednesday, FJ25 of Yankees Fans Unite discussed how the Yankees can use their failures with developing Joba and Hughes as a blueprint for how to get it right with Pineda.

- Mike Ashmore of Thunder Thoughts had a profile post on Trenton reliever Chase Whitley, who could make his way onto many top prospect lists with another good season this year.

- On Thursday, Curtis Clark of Bronx Baseball Daily took a position-by-position look at the Yankees defensively.  If Brett Gardner doesn't win a Gold Glove this season, the award should be done away with.

- Josh Norris of Minor Matters got a quick interview with the rehabbing Jeremy Bleich.  Bleich is a former top pick and hopefully he can make it back to the mound this season.

- Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible weighed in with the 5 biggest questions he has about the 2012 Yankees.

- The always on point Mark Feinsand of the Daily News offered up his round of predictions for the 2012 season.

- Matt Hunter of Yanks Go Yard listed the 3 things to pay attention to in the first week of the season.

- Chad Jennings of LoHud had a great post on David Phelps' reaction to making the 25-man roster.  His family will be in the house this weekend to hopefully see him make his big league debut.  Major +1 to Phelps for the Willie Mays Hayes reference.

- On Friday, el duque of It Is High... offered his 5 predictions for the 2012 season.  No surprise to see he's not confident in the rotation.

- Mike Axisa of RAB offered up his opinions on Joe's recent lineup decisions against right-handed and left-handed pitchers and how Eduardo Nunez factors into those decisions.

As for the Friday Jam, if you've been a regular reader of AB4AR for a while and you don't know what song I'm playing today for Opening Day, then I just don't know what to tell you.  Happy Opening Day, everybody.  Let's go Yankees!



Enjoy your Easter weekends, people.

Opening Day Starting Lineup

Nothing fancy, nothing special.  Just the A-team.

1) Derek Jeter- SS
2) Curtis Granderson- CF
3) Robinson Cano- 2B
4) Alex Rodriguez- 3B
5) Mark Teixeira- 1B
6) Nick Swisher- RF
7) Raul Ibanez
8) Russell Martin- C
9) Brett Gardner- LF

SP) CC Sabathia

Game on.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: 10 Fearless Yankee Predictions For 2012

If you've been an AB4AR follower for a while, and you can remember back to last season and the first batch of fearless predictions I made, you know I'm straight money at this.  Picking division winners and MVPs is child's play.  It takes a real baseball genius to lay the type of future prognostication I'm about to lay on everybody right now.  Bookmark this page, use it to lay a few prop bets for the season if  you'd like, and then thank me in November.  Here are the 2012 AB4AR 10 Fearless Predictions:

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Predictions

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Well, we've reached the end of AB4AR Season Preview Week, which can mean only one thing...

IT'S YANKEES OPENING DAY, YEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

I've previewed everything I can preview, and from those previews I feel really good about this year's team.  The lineup is stacked, the rotation is deep, the bullpen is tough, and the bench is serviceable.  As long as Joe keeps his nose out of the bullpen binder and doesn't put the bunt on in situations that don't call for it, this should be a very good year for the Yankees.  There's nothing more to analyze, so the only left to do is get on with the predictions, starting with the AL East.  Because I have horrible math skills and don't feel like putting the effort in on a holiday, this is the only division for which I'm predicting records.

AL East

1) Yankees: 97-65
2) Rays: 90-72 (2nd WC)
3) Fraud Sawx: 88-74
4) Blue Jays: 85-77
5) Orioles: 66-96

Check out the rest of the AB4AR 2012 predictions after the jump

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Bench

(It's a Swiss Eduarmy Knife.  Courtesy of The AP)

We've reached the final piece of the 25-man puzzle for the 2012 Yankees, the bench.  The Yankees tried to build a mix of young internal pieces and cheap veterans last season and it worked out pretty well for them.  So as much as I was against holding out to spend less money on guys like Eric Chavez and his spotty health history again, and would have rather rolled with the young bucks in house, I can't really argue with the plan when it's worked for them before.  The 2012 bench will be comprised of mostly familiar faces, with one new surprise entrant included after yesterday's surprising catching moves.  There's flexibility in this group, and that's really the most important thing for the Yankees, as they aren't looking for consistent day in/day out production from anybody on their bench, but rather the ability to plug guys into spots for a day or 2 and keep their older veterans rested and fresh.

The first member of the bench is also the newest member.  For some reason the Yankees decided they weren't comfortable with Francisco Cervelli as their backup, even though he's held the role for the past 2 seasons, and so they brought in former MiL farmhand Chris Stewart.  Stewart is a defensive-only catcher and proved that last season in his first major chunk of Major League work, posting a .204/.283/.309 line, .259 wOBA, and 60 wRC+  in 183 plate appearances with the Giants.  He can take a pitch here and there but anything the Yankees get from him with the stick is gravy.  As a defense-only catcher, however, he is a very good one.  He threw out 28 of 72 attempted base stealers last season, good for 38.9%, and was ranked as the 15th best defensive catcher out of 114 last season by Beyond The Boxscore.  For all his offensive shortcomings, Stewart did rack up 1.2 fWAR last year in his limited work, and if he can quickly learn how to work with the Yankees' pitching staff he should be fine for the purposes of giving Martin a rest every now and then.

More after the jump

The 5 Most Important Yankees For 2012

A more appropriate title for this post might have been "The 5 Most Important Yankees For 2012 Besides the Obvious Choices."  We can all agree that CC is important because he's the ace of the staff and if he went down that would be a problem.  Same with Cano as the best hitter in the lineup or Mo as the closer.  I wanted to think outside that box a little and find the 5 guys on the roster who I think will make the difference between the 2012 edition of the New York Yankees being a good team and a great team; between losing in the ALCS and winning the World Series.  I'm sure there will be some disagreement with my choices, but these 5 guys are my most important Yankees for 2012.

1) Russell Martin

The abundance of upper-level catching depth that the Yankees had last season has vanished with the retirement of Jorge Posada, the trading away of Jesus Montero, and the continuing back problems of Austin Romine.  Russell Martin's value to the team increased slightly with each of those occurrences, and now with the Yankees scrambling to replace the missing depth through minor moves he becomes even more important.  No offense to the Francisco Cervellis, Craig Tatums, or Chris Stewarts of the world, but if they are getting regular at-bats as part of an everyday Yankee lineup in place of Martin, that's not a good thing.  Martin is a former Silver Slugger at the plate and a former Gold Glove winner behind it.  He's familiar with everybody on the Yankee staff and looking to make a big splash in a contract year.  A healthy, productive Martin makes the lineup deeper and more dangerous, and the drop-off from his production to that of any of the current backup options is significant.

2) Derek Jeter

Jeter might be the biggest wild card in the lineup in terms of which way his production can go this season.  The way he finished 2011 has created elevated expectations for him this season, and he has looked good again at the plate this spring since coming back from his calf strain.  But don't forget that he was close to below average for the early part of last season, and history is working against him as a 37-year-old shortstop turning 38 in the summer.  A repeat of 2011's second half, or something close to it, would be great from Jeter.  It would create more RBI opportunities for the hitters behind him, inspire confidence that Jeter can at least remain serviceable through the end of his contract, and mask his defensive deficiencies to a certain degree.  A step back towards his 2010-early 2011 numbers makes that contract look worse and brings back the "Joe should move Jeter out of the leadoff spot" media frenzy that nobody wants to deal with.

Last 3 after the jump

Did I Jinx Cervelli Yesterday?

As Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily was kind enough to point out, I kinda blew my 25-man roster predictions yesterday.  The Phelps-over-Mitchell pick I can't get too upset about.  I know I'm more pro-Mitchell than most other Yankee fans out there.  But the Cervelli demotion for Chris Stewart was a complete shock to me, and after suggesting in the comments that I might have jinxed Mitchell, Rob hypothesized that I did the same thing to Frankie.

So Frankie, if you're reading this, I'm really sorry.  Seriously, dude.  I know I've bagged on you for not being able to hit, not being able to field, not being able to throw anybody out, and for wearing that ridiculous Great Gazoo concussion batting helmet, but you didn't deserve what you got yesterday and you have a right to be pissed.  Cash and Joe can say whatever they want about building depth and being solid at catcher from an organizational standpoint, but getting demoted for a guy with a .200/.273/.290 career tripleslash in the Majors is a pretty significant kick in the dick.  They did you dirty yesterday, and if I in any way contributed to that dirty deed, you have my apologies.  I'd much rather have you as the backup catcher than Chris Stewart.

(Sad Frankie is sad. Courtesy of Kim Klement/US Presswire)

P.S.- I should probably get on that whole t-shirt design thing, huh?

Roster Decision Roundup

Well I guess 23 out of 25 ain't bad, huh?  I thought I had it nailed down this morning, but the Yankees hit me (and I'm sure many others) with a few surprises today.  I covered some of this on the AB4AR Page earlier, but here's a quick recap of the day's roster events.

- David Phelps was named the long man out of the bullpen.  I preferred D.J. Mitchell but you really can't say this is a bad choice.  Phelps probably is a better pitcher than Mitchell and I always say bring your 25 best.

- Francisco Cervelli was NOT named the backup catcher.  Instead, he will be heading to Triple-A to replace Austin Romine while Romine recovers from his back injury.

- Replacing Cervelli on the 25-man will be former Snan Francisco Giant and Yankee MiL catcher Chris Stewart.  Stewart is an all-field/no-hit catcher if ever there was one, and he cost the Yankees George Kontos to get.  Kontos was possibly undervalued as a potential relief arm, but not a huge loss.

- OF Justin Maxwell was designated for assignment, a move that wasn't surprising but a bit disappointing considering what he brings to the table as bench insurance for Andruw Jones.  There's no chance he slips through the cracks like C-Dick did.  Even if he clears waivers, Maxwell can choose free agency over a Triple-A assignment.

- IF Bill Hall was granted his release.  He didn't have an out in his contract, but he requested it and the Yankees honored that request.  One less thing I'll have to complain about this season.

- 3 other guys on MiL deals- Doug Bernier, Jayson Nix, and Dewayne Wise- were not offered roster spots by other teams and so will be retained as emergency depth in Triple-A.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Bullpen

(The man, the myth, the legend.  Courtesy of The AP)

When last year's rotation was expected to be a weak link, the Yankees attempted to make up for it by signing Rafael Soriano and building a modern day version of the Nasty Boys in their 'pen.  The plan didn't exactly pan out, as Joba went down early with TJS and Soriano spent the bulk of the season either on the DL or being only marginally effective, but all in all the 'pen still ended up being a strength for the Yanks.  Mo was Mo, D-Rob stepped up in a big way to fill the void left by Joba and Sour Puss, and the rest of the group stepped up to provide quality innings.  The majority of that group is back in the fold this year, with a few new faces sprinkled in, and the Yankee 'pen should once again be a strength for the team.  With some breaking news today on the health status of one of the key pieces, there could be some last-minute changes coming to this group for Opening Day.  But relief arms are a position of depth for the organization, and if the Yankees could piece together a solid relief corp last season there's no reason they can't do the same this year.

No matter who's filling in the 6 spots behind him, the Yankee bullpen always starts and ends with Mariano Rivera.  This season could be the last time we're able to say that, but when it can still be said, that inspires a lot of confidence in the Yankees' ability to close out games.  Mo bucked his usual Spring Training trend this year by showing up earlier, starting his work earlier, and pitching in games earlier, and it doesn't seem to have changed the results one bit.  In 8 IP over 8 appearances this spring, Mo has allowed just 4 hits and has struck out 4 batters while walking none.  He did allow an earned run for the first time since 2008 in a recent outing, but even Mo isn't perfect.  He's healthy, his velocity and command is right where it always is, and he's right on track to have another dominant season.  He's coming at hitters with the cutter, they know he's coming at them with the cutter, and there ain't a damn thing they can do about it.  Every save he earns this season will be a record-setting one, and with the rest of the team around him there should be save opportunities aplenty for the G.O.A.T.

More after the jump

Final 25-Man Roster Prediction

There isn't much drama in making these selections thanks to recent injury developments.  But since the rosters have to be set for Opening Day by 5PM today, I might as well submit the 25 players I think Joe will end up taking.  I'm sure he's been waiting for me to give him a few last-minute pointers anyway.  Probably not fair of me to keep him waiting any longer.

- Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez

- Outfielders: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez

- Catchers: Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli

- Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

- Relief Pitchers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan, Cory Wade, Clay Rapada, D.J. Mitchell

There you have it.  If I'm wrong, everybody gets one of the free AB4AR t-shirts that still don't exist.

Andy Takes The Mound Today

“I bounced back pretty good after that last one, so we feel like an inning would be good tomorrow. I realized I feel good enough to pitch.”

And with that statement, it became official that Andy Pettitte would pitch in Spring Training.  He's been working hard since the day he announced he was coming back- going through drills and exercises to build up strength, throwing bullpens, throwing BP, throwing simulated games- and now that tomorrow has become today and today Andy Pettitte will once again take the hill as a New York Yankee.

I know I wasn't as super-jacked as most other people about Andy's return when it was first announced.  I kept looking at it strictly from a baseball perspective, probably too much of a future baseball perspective, and I questioned whether mixing Andy in with the young stable of pitchers would help or hurt their development if they ended up being the one who was kicked out of the rotation for him.  As it turns out, that was the wrong way to think about it and it was an incredibly smart move to make by the Yankees.  For someone like Andy, it was wrong of me to put my fan side aside for the baseball side and question people's motivations.  Just another example of why Cash is making the baseball decisions I'm sitting at a desk writing a blog.

When Andy retired, I honestly thought it was for good.  The timing was right, he had nothing left to prove, and there hadn't been any hints that he was even remotely interested in coming back until he popped up at camp this year.  As much as we all didn't want to see him go, he really had no reason to stay, at least until last December when he got the itch again.  Now he's back, he's healthy, and he looks good so far, almost like he never left.

I have no way of knowing how Andy is going to pitch today against the Mets or this season against everybody else at age 40. None of us do.  But right now, I really don't even care about that.  This afternoon, something is going to happen that I never thought I would see happen again.  Andy Pettitte, one of my favorite Yankees of all time, is going to take the mound and pitch in a Major League Baseball game wearing the Yankee colors, and that's pretty damn cool.

(Quote courtesy of The AP)

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Rotation

(Hey new guy!  Courtesy of The AP)

For the first time in what seems like ages, the Yankees enter a season without major questions in the rotation.  Sure, there are still questions, but not of the usual "Who's going to be the __th starter?" variety that has been the norm for the past few years.  The Yankees went out this offseason and made moves to fortify both the depth and the talent level of their rotation, starting with the new contract for CC and ending with the surprise signing and un-retirement of Andrew Eugene Pettitte.  There have been a few bumps in the road in Spring Training leading up to the final determination of the starting 5, and some who were thought to be a part of the Opening Day rotation won't be, but the Yankees head into the 2012 season with a no-doubt starting 5 intact and plenty of reserves on standby to cover for injuries or ineffectiveness.  The 2011 rotation ended up being sneaky good, much better than most people anticipated.  Expectations are much higher for 2012's group and they should be.  Despite the recent injury issues, there is no reason that the rotation can't be a major strength for the Bombers in 2012.

Starting at the top, CC Sabathia will once again be the ace of the staff, and as aces go you can't do a whole lot better than CC.  He's big, he's durable, he gives his team lots of innings, and he produces at a Cy Young-worthy level in those innings.  At this point, CC's transformation from thrower to pitcher is complete, as he has a firm grasp on all the pitchers in his arsenal and knows how to use them all to be effective against any type of hitter and any lineup.  The hefty lefty is coming off of his best season in pinstripes (3.00/2.88/3.02 with 8.72 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 in 237.1 IP in 2011) and will be looking to build on that with another re-commitment to managing his weight.  He shed some pounds before arriving at camp last year, but over the course of the season put it all back on.  He has dropped a few LBs again in 2012, and is planning to make a concerted effor to keep it off and keep himself fresh over the long haul.  Despite his size, CC has never been a big injury risk, but as he starts to transition further into his 30s that injury risk becomes greater and the Yankees want to do everything they can to keep him healthy.  He's struggled with his command a bit in camp this year, specifically his fastball, but right now there's no reason to expect anything other than another stellar year from him.

More after the jump

D.J. Mitchell For Long Reliever

The injuries to Michael Pineda and Cesar Cabral this past weekend added a little spice to what was going to be a rather boring final decision on the 25-man roster this week. The only real question was whether Cabral or Clay Rapada was going to get the final bullpen spot, and no offense to those guys but a "Rapada vs. Cabral" battle doesn't exactly get the media all stirred up. A second opening in the bullpen was created when Freddy Garcia was moved into Pineda's spot in the rotation, and the leading candidates for his long relief role are the trio of D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, and Adam Warren. Those names doesn't exactly sell papers either, but they are the best options to fill what could become an important role in the bullpen once the season starts. The Yankees could throw a curveball and add another position player or send down Cory Wade, but I'm banking on Joe's familiarity with Wade being enough to give Wade a spot. I also think Wade getting that spot with how poorly he's pitched this spring necessitates another relief option in the 'pen, and I'm publicly throwing my support behind D.J. Mitchell for the role.

Mitchell has always been looked at as a relief conversion candidate internally because of his makeup. He's got 3 decent offerings, but nothing overwhelming and nothing that profiles as a big-time strikeout pitch. He also has the least consistent fastball command out of himself, Phelps, and Warren, something that dropped him below the other two in most every side-by-side-by-side prospect comparison. Because of these two factors, the perception has always been that Mitchell would struggle to mix pitches and get guys out the 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup at the Major League level and that he might be better served maximizing the value of his offerings in shorter outings. From his collection of 2-seamer, 4-seamer, slider, change, he should be able to find the 2, maybe 3 that work best in short outings and focus on developing those for relief purposes.

The other thing Mitchell has going for him is that he's worked exclusively in a relief role this spring, whereas Phelps and Warren have thrown more pitches and more innings to stretch themselves out as starters for Triple-A. All 6 of his Spring Training appearances have been in relief and all 6 have been between 2-3 innings, exactly what the Yankees would be looking to get out of their long man. Mitchell's overall ST line of 14.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 8 BB, 12 K isn't head-over-heels great, but when you factor out his bad outing against Detroit on 3/24 the remaining line of 11.I IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K is pretty damn good and a sign that there might be something to the theory of Mitchell's stuff playing up a bit out of the 'pen. It's also worth noting that Mitchell has been experimenting with a cutter this spring, and his attempts to work it into his repertoire during games could be a contributing factor to his recent outings not being as solid as his first few.

Mitchell was moved to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft, so the Yankees obviously see value in him and likely realize they are getting to the point of "you-know-what or get off the pot" time with him. They won't have to make any funky moves to get him onto the 25-man to open the season, and his presence in the Major League bullpen would open up a much-needed spot in the Triple-A rotation for Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda to complete their prep/rehab work when the time comes. The Yankees could also use this as an opportunity to showcase Mitchell to teams interested in trading for him and ease a potential logjam in the Triple-A rotation that could creep up later in the season. And who knows? Maybe Mitchell finds something with this new cutter and finds his calling a late-inning stopper. There is really no downside to this move and everything is already set up to make it a smooth, painless transition. D.J. Mitchell as the 25th man to open the season should be a no-brainer.

The End Of The Yankees' 2012 FA Pitcher Search

Take a look at this blind career comparison of 3 starting pitchers:

- Player A: 3.35/3.69/4.26, 7.41 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 25.0 bWAR
- Player B: 3.39/3.63/3.42, 8.45 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 22.5 bWAR
- Player C: 3.82/3.51/3.68, 7.96 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 24.4 bWAR

Which one would you want on your team?  You really can't go wrong with any of the 3 to be honest.  That's 3 top flight starting pitchers all in the prime of their careers at ages 27 (A) and 28 (B and C).  Player A is actually Matt Cain, who became the richest right-hander in baseball yesterday by signing a new 6-year/$127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants.  Player B is Cole Hamels and Player C is Zack Greinke, and collectively these 3 would have made one of the best classes of free agent pitchers in baseball history after the 2012 season.  The Yankees could have been major players in that market, but after seeing what Cain got from San Fran I think it's safe to say the Yankees' pursuit of any of these 3 is over before it started.

Cain is a helluva pitcher, but the argument could be made that he's the third best out of this group.  If he's pulling in over $21 mil per year in his new deal, that all but guarantees Hamels and Greinke will get more.  Hamels' numbers are better than Cain's almost across the board and he has the added benefit of being left-handed.  Greinke's numbers stack up favorably to Cain's as well and he has a Cy Young under his belt and a track record of success in both leagues.  If Cain is pulling $21 mil, these other 2 are going to get more, and with the self-imposed 2014 payroll cap looming over them, that kind of money is going to be too rich for the Yankees' blood.

Chances are the Yankees weren't going to be heavily involved with these 3 anyway after making the Pineda trade, but if the price tags could have stayed in the $18-20 million range maybe we would have seen them make an offer.  No chance of that happening now, assuming Hamels and Greinke even make it to free agency.  Michael, Ivan, Phil, Manny?  You guys just became even more important.

Hip Looks Good...

(Courtesy of MLB.com)

Do not sleep on The Horse, people.  Do not sleep on The Horse.

ST Thoughts & Afterthoughts: The Third

("Alright, everybody. Remember to study those matchup binders!" Courtesy of The AP)

It's the last week of Spring Training this week, so it seems like the perfect time to go through the last batch of random Spring Training thoughts rattling around in my head before the regular season begins, right?  Right.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Lineup

(3/4 of the best infield in baseball or... ?)

The 2012 New York Yankees lineup will look almost identical to the one they put on the field for the majority of the 2011 season.  For a big budget team with all its big guys under contract, that's not very surprising.  What is surprising is the path the Yankees chose to take in changing the lineup this season, as what was supposed to be an injection of youth in the form of Jesus Montero as the everyday DH turned into a blockbuster trade to improve the rotation and a subsequent cost-conscious signing of an aging player not much younger than Jorge Posada was when he was the Opening Day DH last year.  There might be a bit of a course for concern here, as there are some members of the Yankee lineup who have settled into the downside of their careers, and a young bat like Montero's could have been the perfect way to balance the past and present that those players represent with the future that Montero represented.  Even in the downside, however, the Yankee veterans are still capable of producing at an above-average level.  It's exactly how far above the above-average level that will determine whether this lineup takes a step back towards the rest of the pack or once again lays claim to being the best lineup in baseball.

At the top of the order, things will look the same as they did last season with the The Captain, Derek Jeter, leading off again.  Jeter is coming off a major up-and-down season in 2011, with the first half being way down and the second half being way up.  He'll be looking to build off that strong finish to his 2011 and after a slow start in camp, and another calf injury, he has picked it up recently at the plate and still looks to have enough bat speed to be effective.  His defense at short is what it is at this point, and expecting a repeat of his 2011 second half for a full season might be overreaching, but another solid all-around year would go a long way in building confidence that Jeter can remain useful through the remaining life of his contract.

Hitting behind Jeter will once again be center fielder Curtis Granderson, coming off a career year and a year not had by a Yankee outfielder in quite some time.  Curtis has come out of the gate swinging in 2012 and looks primed to put together another MVP-caliber season.  Projections across the board have him slated for a drop in power production, which is reasonable to expect after the 41 home runs he put up last year.  But Granderson is so tuned in to his new swing mechanics that he can recognize when his swing is on and when it's not, something that could never be said about Granderson before.  Even if the HR numbers drop, Granderson's increasing self-awareness at the plate and goal to cut down on strikeouts could lead to another monster year without the 40+ dingers.

More after the jump