Just Say No To Matt Thornton

As the Hot Stove season continues to be lukewarm for the Yankees, people are starting to get a little antsy and understandably so.  There's only so long we as fans and bloggers can wait to see which free agents the Yankees sign and what killer trades Cash makes to build the team up to the 160-2 juggernaut we all wish it would be next year.  But when the talk starts turning back to mid-30s lefty specialist relievers and there is serious analysis being done on the most expensive one, that's where the line from "antsy" gets crossed and we start jumping into 'bizarro world" territory.

So to everybody out there who's reading the chatter and rumors and analysis, and either seriously considering wanting Matt Thornton in the bullpen next year or already craving him, let me say this.

Stop it.  Just stop it.  The Yankees don't need Matt Thornton in the bullpen next season anymore than they need A.J. Burnett to be a part of the bullpen next season.  Let's review the current lay of the land out there beyond right field:

• Mariano Rivera (greatest closer of all time)
• Dave Robertson (best setup man in baseball in 2011)
• Rafael Soriano (former closer/setup man with shutdown stuff when healthy)
• Boone Logan (serviceable LOOGY most of the time)
• Cory Wade (above-average middle innings guy)
• Joba Chamberlain (solid career reliever who should be back by late summer)
• Hector Noesi (above-average reliever who should be a starter but could get bumped back to the long man role)

Do you see that?  That's the best bullpen in baseball right there.  And it's pretty damn full and pretty damn full of guys who are already tough on lefties.  And after the back-to-back debacle of Damaso Marte and Pedro Feliciano, and the long line of 30-something relievers that the Yankees have handed contracts to, why would anybody even want to go down that road AGAIN??

I get that Matt Thornton is nasty, I do.  In the right situation, it would make perfect sense to bring in a guy with a career K/9 slightly below 10 and a very low HR/9 rate who murders left-handed hitting.  But when the situation is what it currently is in the Yankee 'pen, and adding this lefty murderer is going to cost prospects as well as 2 years and $12 million, that just doesn't make sense.  It's like spending time putting expensive rims on a Maybach.  It's already a badass fucking car, it doesn't need anything else gaudy on it.  Just leave it alone and let it be badass.

In short, just say "No" to Matt Thornton.

My Bobby V Pleas Were Heard!!

And I couldn't be happier.  Congratulations, Fraud Sawx Nation.  Embrace your new savior.  Judging by his past choices of dugout wear, he should fit right in with the biggest group of phonies and phony fans in the world.

I'm especially loving the details from the story that seem to indicate ownership and the GM might not have been on the same page on this decision too.  Because nothing helps start the recovery process from the biggest collapse in baseball history like having a fractured decision-making group making major personnel decisions.  Especially when that fractured group is bringing in a known question mark when it comes to dealing with players.  Things are already looking up in Beantown!

P.S.- I really hope Cash comes out of left field some time in the next 48 hours with a monster trade just to steal the Fraud Sawx's thunder here.

Happy Birthday, Mo

It still feels weird wishing a cybernetic organism from some distant planet in the future a birthday.  I mean, honestly, do they even technically have birthdays?  And if they do, what are you supposed to get them?  But according to his cover story, today is Mo's birthday and I am obligated as a Yankee blogger, Yankee fan, and pathetic mere mortal to wish him a happy birthday and bow down to his all-worldly greatness.

He doesn't know if he's going to come back after his contract is up at the end of the 2012 season, so this may be the last time we get to wish him a happy b-day while he's still active and not returning to his home planet.

Happy birthday, Mo.  You're the greatest individual athlete at one position in the history of sports and I think I speak for Yankee fans everywhere when I say that we love having the privilege of watching you do your thing each and every year and will truly miss it when the day comes that you decide to no longer do said thing.

P.S.- I feel so much cooler knowing that my birthday is so close to Mo's.

Morning Trade Whispers

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees aren't having any "hi-level" trade talks with other teams right now.  With rumors swirling about Matt Garza, hopes being had by many for John Danks, and dreams (however unrealistic they are) still existing for King Felix, I think we can assume that those guys aren't being discussed right now as they would all be "hi-level" targets.

And that can mean only one thing.  The Yanks are looking to move A.J.  After all, a 5.15 ERA and 4.77 FIP doesn't exactly scream "hi-level" performance.

/crosses fingers

What Was That, Mike?

Not Yankee-related, and definitely crude and sophomoric, but too hilarious not to post.  Fucking Francesa.

I only wish Russo could have been there to burst out laughing like a little kid.

"BADJOBINABIGSPOTDERE, MICHAEL!!!"

I Really Hope The Fraud Sawx Hire Bobby V As Their New Manager

I mean I really REALLY REALLY hope it happens.  I hope it happens more than I hope I get what I want for Christmas, more than I hope the Yankees add another starting pitcher besides Freddy, and more than I hope scientists one day find a cure for cancer.  Just look at some of these quotes from Andrew Marchand's piece on ESPNNY today:

"More than once, I had to remind him that asking a question is not not necessarily questioning a move. Over the two years, I never became 'one of his guys,' but I was also not in the smaller camp that hated him."

"He likes to be liked, which is probably his biggest drawback. If there are 10 people in a room and nine think he is a genius, he is concerned about the 10th. From my experience, the 10th person is usually wrong on Bobby V. But V can't let it go."

"Valentine was always getting into it with someone."

"... things were so dysfunctional between GM Steve Phillips and Valentine that Phillips would call [Bobby] Jones back to the majors later in the year."

Marchand's premise that the Yanks-Sawx rivalry "needs" Valentine is stupid, but the idea of this guy being the one to come in and straighten out the Fraud Sawx ship is even more laughable.  He's an ego maniac who always thinks he's right, has a reputation for arguing with upper management, and always seems to be fighting with his players in the clubhouse about one thing or another.  And now he's going to come in and manage a team fresh off a season of disappointment stemming from a lack of leadership, accountability, and effort from their disjointed collection of spoiled players, and whose roster will still likely employ most of the players blamed for said lack of leadership, accountability and effort?  Yeah, that should work out just fine.  Add in a collection of media guys whose sole goal in life seems to be stirring the pot, an ownership group with a longstanding reputation for throwing people under the bus, and a fanbase with such a sickening sense of entitlement that they practically expect to be handed the World Series trophy every year and it'll be a miracle if Fenway is still standing and Valentine is still alive come mid-2012.

So please, Ben Cherington.  Please sign Bobby V.  He's just what your team needs to rebound from the collapse of 2011.  And by "rebound," I mean continue to spiral downward in a torrent of finger pointing, infighting, excuse making, and general indifference from the players until you're forced to completely blow up the team and go back to being the sadsack, loser organization that we all know you are.

Possible Reasons For The Freddy Re-Signing

(How will The Garbage Man fit into the 2012 rotation plans?)

Freddy Garcia was an absolute steal for the Yankees in 2011.  Considering the fact that he was brought in on a non-guaranteed deal and was really only supposed to be a placeholder for one of the young arms in Triple-A and the Yankees ended up getting 146.2 IP of 3.62/4.12/4.36 ball out of him, you could make the argument that Freddy was their best addition last year.  That being said, I think it was still a bit of a surprise to most of us that the Yankees re-signed him this early in the offseason.  As I stated last week, I pictured Freddy as more of a last resort for the Yanks again if they weren't able to land any of the bigger FA pitchers.  So Freddy being back in the fold already has to mean one of 3 things.

1) The Yankees Are Confident With the 5 Guys They Have

Freddy being back gives the Yankees a complete 5-man rotation right now with him, CC, Nova, A.J., and Phil.  And with the strides that Nova made last year, the confidence the team already has that Phil will rebound in 2012 thanks to the extra laps he's running at the fat farm in Cali, and CC being CC, perhaps the feeling is that they can win again with that rotation and the rest of the roster around them.  Freddy is certainly no slouch to have at the back of the rotation, and with the previously-mentioned stockpile of young ammunition at Triple-A, the Yankees are well covered in case injuries or poor production hinder one of these 5. 

2) The Yankees Don't Like Any of the Big Free Agent Pitchers Available

Myself, along with everybody else in the blogosphere, has spent time analyzing the bigger name pitchers available this offseason.  And while they each come with their own set of strengths and potential bonuses they bring to the table, there are various risks associated with all of them, be it performance-related, injury-related, or transitioning to the AL East-related.  If nobody out there stands out as a sure thing in the eyes of the front office, perhaps they will decide it's not worth the extra money and years it will take to sign one of them.  Instead, they can just go low-risk on a guy who just proved he could get it done in New York and continue to bide their time until guys like ManBan and Betances are ready.

3) The Yankees Are Looking to Make a Trade

It certainly wouldn't be the first time that Cash has flown under the radar during Hot Stove season, and there are some potential trade targets out there that could be more attractive than throwing big money at a C.J. Wilson or a Yu Darvish.  It won't be the Josh Johnson or Felix Hernandez blockbuster that some fans out there are still clamoring for, but guys like John Danks, Jair Jurrjens, and Gio Gonzalez could probably be had for way less than it would take to get Johnson or King Felix.  And with the continued struggles of A.J. and Phil, maybe the front office has grown tired of waiting for them and are looking to see what teams, if any, are interested in including one of them in a deal.  If that's the case, Freddy is essentially replacing them in the rotation and leaving a spot open for a new guy.

I'm tending to lean more towards the #2 and #3 scenarios described above.  I can't see the Yankees holding pat with the staff they currently have after they were adamant in saying their goal this offseason was to improve the rotation.  And while bringing Freddy back is a part of that, I just can't see any way that he's the only part, especially considering the possibility that he doesn't repeat his solid 2011 campaign.  It will be interesting to see how the Yankees operate over the next couple of weeks.  That should shed some light on what they're trying to do and how re-signing Freddy fits into those plans.

Post-Thanksgiving Update

Between the Thanksgiving-birthday-Ranger game 3-day bender that just ended last night, you've probably noticed that the site hasn't been very active this weekend.  Thankfully there hasn't been much happening in Yankeeland other than the Freddy Garcia signing, so I didn't miss much.

But vacation's over, I'm back in WI and I'll be getting back into the routine tomorrow for everyone who's been dying without AB4AR the last couple days.  And I know I said the AB4AR Top 30 would be starting in November, but that clearly hasn't happened and I apologize for that.  Hopefully later this week or early next week that will start to come together.

In the mean time, do me a solid and head over to the AB4AR Facebook page and "Like" the hell out of it.  I'm trying to get those numbers up.

Quick Reaction To The Freddy Signing

The Yanks threw a bit of curveball yesterday and announced they had re-signed Freddy Garcia to a 1-year deal.  After his successful season in 2011, this deal is significantly better than his non-guaranteed MiL one from last year, reported to be for $5 million.

I always thought that if Freddy was coming back to the Yankees he would be a late signee if their other targets fell through and that if he signed early in the offseason it would be because another team liked what they saw from him last year and wanted to snatch him up quick.  So with this being announced before any talks with the Wilsons, Oswalts, and Buehrles of the world going anywhere, I think this has to signal the Yankees having a plan to make a trade or 2 and move somebody currently in the rotation (possibly Phil Hughes).

Unfortunately, that's all I care to say on the topic right now.  It's my birthday today, so instead of analyzing the re-signing and thinking about what the Yankees could/should do I'm going to party like it's my birthday and sip Bacardi like it's my birthday.  And you know I don't give a fuck 'cause it's my birthday.

What The Yankees Should Be Thankful For This Year

To some of us, it might seem like being a member of the New York Yankees is a cakewalk.  Getting paid millions of dollars to play a game for a living, playing that game for the most well-recognized team in the history of sports, playing it in front of a packed house every night, winning titles, doing commercials, dating supermodels and actresses and singers, etc.  I know I wouldn't mind living that life.  But don't let that fool you into thinking that these guys take what they have for granted and are totally made in the shade.  Oh no, they still have plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving season.  For example:

- Mark Teixeira should be thankful that popping up on the infield with runners on base isn't a fineable offense in the organization.  If it was, he probably wouldn't be able to afford cranberry sauce this year.

- A.J. Burnett should be thankful that he had Russell Martin behind the plate all season in 2011.  Who knows how high A.J.'s record-setting wild pitch totals would have been with somebody else back there?

- Boone Logan should be thankful that he doesn't have to face any lefties for another couple months.

- Robbie Cano should be thankful that he hired Scott Boras as his agent.  Whether Boras was joking last month when talking about Cano's contract or not, Cano is an MVP-caliber player and being with Boras all but guarantees he's going to get paid like one.

- Joba should be thankful that Phil Hughes will be stealing all the "what kind of shape is he in?" storylines that are usually reserved for him when pitchers and catchers report in 2012.

- Rafael Soriano should be thankful that Joba won't be back until the summer of 2012 at the earliest, otherwise he could be looking at becoming baseball's first $11 million 6th-Inning Guy.  Oh, and don't worry if Soriano isn't smiling.  He's definitely thankful.  Trust me.

- Alex Rodriguez should be thankful that he gets to hang out with all these hot chicks.... Or something like that.

- Swish should be thankful that The Boss isn't still running the show.  If he was, Swish's option probably would have been declined in favor of the New Kid on The Block, Yoenis Cespedes.

- Mo should be thankful that his career involves coming out to "Enter Sandman" and not singing "Enter Sandman" if he ends up needing this rumored vocal chord surgery.

- Cash should be thankful that Cliff Lee isn't available again this offseason.  He's already 0 for 2 going after Clifton, probably best that he doesn't get a chance to strike out.

As for me, I'm thankful for my family, my friends, my health, and the fact that I root for and write about a team whose biggest issues are deciding which free agent starter(s) they want to add to the rotation and making sure their All-Star first and third basemen bounce back in 2012.  No clubhouse drinking witch hunts, no GMs jumping ship, and no re-working the stadium dimensions to better fit the Little League-level talent of their lineup.  It's very easy to forget how spoiled we are as Yankee fans, especially when I throw up a post openly whining about Phil Hughes, but what better time to remember how good we all have it than this season of giving?

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving, everybody.  Eat too much, drink too much, and make sure to take a dig or two at any family members who are Met or Fraud Sawx fans.

Mo Hangin' Em Up After 2012?

Via The Post:

"I don’t know what will happen.  I have one year left. I might call it over. I will know more in spring training."

Say it ain't so, Mo!  I didn't think robots even could retire.  Isn't that one of Asimov's 3 Laws?

In all seriousness, I wouldn't put much weight in this statement right now.  Mo's going through a tough time with his voice and possible upcoming vocal chord surgery.  We'll see how his tune changes when he gets over this and gets back in camp with the guys.

Phil Hughes And The Hard Lesson Of Prospect Hugging

(Phil Hughes, master of packing on mass)

I'm usually pretty good about letting things go when it comes to the Yankees (except some of Joe's bullpen moves and sac bunts), but one thing that still stuck in my craw right now is the recent revelation that Phil Hughes came into camp out of shape in 2011 and the suggestion by the organization that he's going to bounce back in 2012 because he's spending this offseason training hard again and getting back to the shape he was in before 2010.

I'm on the record as stating that I'm an unabashed Hughes fan and apologist.  He's listed on my "AB4AR Man Crush Hall of Fame" and even this disastrous 2011 season and recent news that could possibly explain that disaster won't change that.  But 2011 and the constant ups and downs in Hughes' career over the past few seasons, after the high hopes that were held for him and the pedestal he was put on early in his Minor League career, are just the latest reminder that baseball prospects are as tricky and unpredictable a business as anything and we as fans would be wise to never get too attached to any of them.

Prospects typically don't pan out for one of three reasons: injury, lack of skill development, or lack of personal/professional development.  What makes Phil Hughes' case particularly frustrating is that he has been a victim (probably the wrong word) to all three of those pitfalls.  Since making his Major League debut in 2007, Hughes has suffered injuries to his hamstring, oblique muscle and ribs, and his throwing shoulder.  He's gone from a pitcher known for a great fastball and curveball with command to match to a pitcher with a questionable fastball, a curveball that is inconsistent, an array of other offspeed pitches that he has tinkered with on and off but none that he's used enough to become effective, and command that seems to come and go at any time.  And now he has confirmed some of the whispers that have been around regarding his work ethic by having the organization confirm that he came into camp out of shape in 2011 because he didn't go to the training facility that he used prior to his career-best 2010 season.

The resume that Hughes had prior to 2007 paints him as a can't-miss, sure thing, "no doubt about it" future All Star, Cy Young winner, and Hall of Famer:

• 2004 High School 1st Team All-American
• 2004 MLB Draft 1st-Round Pick (Age 18)
• 2006- Named #1 Yankee Prospect by Baseball America, called one of the best pitching prospects in the Minors (Age 20)
• 2007- Named #2 Prospect in all of baseball by Baseball Digest (Age 20)
• 2007- Invited to Yankees' Spring Training (Age 20)
• 2007- Threw 6.1 no-hit innings in just his 2nd career start (Age 20)

He was on the fast track to being the next great Yankee pitcher, right up there with Whitey Ford and Ron Guidry.  But since then things haven't panned out, for the reasons mentioned above.  This is not to say that Hughes is at complete fault for how his career path has gone in the Majors.  It's not like the guy wanted and tried to pull his hamstring or break his ribs.  It just happened.  And the Yankees certainly didn't do him any favors by shuttling him from the rotation to the bullpen and back from '09 to 2010.  But when a prospect is as hyped as Hughes was, and you buy into that hype as much as I did, and then the performance doesn't match the hype, it's a crushing blow to the fan ego.

I should be wearing Phil Hughes jerseys to the office at work and boring all my friends to tears with stories about how I always knew he was going to be this good because of his MiL K rates as he prepares for another season as the Yankees' ace.  Instead, I'm sobbing into a pillow at night while listening to "Unbreak My Heart" by Toni Braxton after each of his inefficient 4-inning outings and cursing myself for being duped while I read that Hughes is going to a glorified fat camp in California and will come into the 2012 season once again on the fringe of making the rotation.  It all adds up to the same conclusion you have to come to with prospects, that conclusion being that you just never know. 

And it is this not knowing that we as Yankee fans must always be mindful of and remember when evaluating prospects.  Manny Banuelos could be the second coming of Johan Santana or he could be a pile of crap.  Mason Williams might turn into the next Ken Griffey Jr. or he might be bagging my groceries in three years.  Dante Bichette Jr. could become a better player than his old man or he could break his leg in a car accident when somebody runs a red light and never play again.

There are so many factors, both internal in terms of a player's own makeup and external in terms of the situation they're in, the coaching they receive, and the luck (good or bad) they experience, that contribute to how his career plays out.  And there's no way for us to know how all of those factors are going to add up for each player.  Because of this, we cannot allow ourselves as fans to get too attached to any prospect, no matter how amazing his stats look or how high his ceiling is.  Phil Hughes is just the latest example, and I'm as guilty as anybody for drinking the Hughes-Aid for as long as I have.  And now I have nobody but to blame but myself for being hurt by Phil and his inability to live up to the hype.

Prospects are like hot girls you meet at the bar who turn out to be crazy.  You can talk to them and about them, look at them, have fun with them.  But don't get too attached to them.  Because more often than not, you're just going to end up getting hurt if you do.

Yankees Sticking It To The 99%

From the team's press release earlier today announcing ticket pricing updates for 2012:

"All seats in the Field Level between the bases will be unchanged or reduced, while seats in the Field Level outfield sections located in fair territory (Sections 103-104 and 132-136) will have price reductions ranging from $10 to $35.  Grandstand Level seats beyond the bases will remain at $20, while Grandstand Level seats between the bases will be $28. Non-obstructed Bleachers tickets will increase by $5."

Non-obstructed bleacher tickets will increase by five bucks?  Are you serious?  Last time I checked, we were still living in a recession, people can't find jobs, everything at The Stadium is already grossly overpriced, and now the Yankees want to jack up the price of the most affordable tickets in the place?

For shame, Yankees.  For shame.

Examining Possible Eduardo Nunez Trade Matches With The Braves

The biggest story to come out this past weekend was probably the "Braves being interested in Eduardo Nunez" rumors that sprouted up after the infamous "sources" stated that Atlanta was interested in the Yankees' utility infielder as a replacement for Alex Gonzalez at short.  Personally, I still can't fathom why so many teams and fans are so high on Nunez, but if this is real then it's certainly a path the Yankees should consider pursuing.  And with the slow pace that the Hot Stove Season is moving at right now, why not play the hypothetical trade game and look for potential trade pieces from Atlanta's side for Nunez.  Given the Yankees' needs this offseason, there are a few interesting possibilities out there on the Braves roster.

Brooks Conrad- 2B/3B

Hey, why not swap one utility guy for another?  Conrad is stuck behind Dan Uggla at 2nd and the Chipper Jones/Martin Prado duo at 3rd, and he would fit the bill of a solid defensive utility infielder that Nunez currently does not.

Conrad's also not a complete waste of space at the plate.  He's a switch hitter with good numbers against lefties (even if it was in just 24 AB in 2011) and the first thing that stands out is his BB rate, which has jumped to 9.0% in 2010 and 12.3% in 2011 as he started to get more plate appearances.  He also cut down on the K % a bit in 2011, a sign that even at 31 Conrad has some room to improve at the plate, and his contact rates show a guy who doesn't make a lot of bad contact on pitches out of the zone.  His GB/FB rate is solid, and he's got some pop in his bat for a little guy (career .199 ISO), so an appointment or two with renowned hitting doctor Kevin Long could help him maximize his skill set and tailor it to hitting in Yankee Stadium while cutting down on the swings and misses.

As a backup, Conrad brings more to the table than he takes off of it.  He can swing the bat a little, draws walks, can play 2 infield positions and probably SS if needed, and runs the bases well.  The addition of Conrad would cover the weaknesses present in Nunez's game that became more obvious when he was forced to play every day last season, and Conrad would have to be considered an upgrade at the utility IF position over the likes of Brandon Laird and Ramiro Pena.  Being an older player, the Yankees might even have room to get another prospect, albeit a low-level one, included in the deal for the younger Nunez if the Braves are that in love with him.

Jair Jurrjens- SP

This is the name that everybody talks about in relation to any potential trade with the Braves. And they are reportedly already entertaining offers for the 25-year-old righty, so I might as well discuss him.

On the surface, Jurrjens doesn't appear to be a good fit for the Yankees.  His fastball velocity and K/9 dropped to career-lows in 2011 at 89.1 MPH and 5.33 respectively, likely a result of the continuing injury issues that plague him.  At such a young age arm issues raise a big red flag, particularly when they appear to already be sapping a pitcher of his stuff.  And Jurrjens' inconsistent GB/FB rates should raise concern as to how his game would translate to pitching in the AL East and Yankee Stadium, especially if he's going to be pitching with a diminished fastball.

That being said, there are some things to like about Jurrjens.  He made a big improvement in cutting down on his walks in 2011, posting a career-best 2.61 BB/9.  And he is just 25 years old, presumably approaching the prime of his career with an already mature approach on the mound.  Working with Larry Rothschild could be just the thing Jurrjens needs to get the most out of his stuff and become a consistently effective pitcher.  And adding him through a trade lessens the commitment and risk the Yankees take on in terms of years and money.  He might not fit the bill of top-tier starter that the Yankees are looking for, but he's also not Brien Gordon or Sidney Ponson.  You can't say that Jurrjens in 2012 isn't a better deal than Freddy in 2011.

Arodys Vizcaino- RHP

This one is admittedly a bit of a pipe dream, but it would be nice to see if the Braves were interested in moving the kid who was a key prospect piece in the fateful Javy Vazquez Reunion Tour trade of a couple years ago.  Bringing Vizcaino back could be a way for Cash to help right some of the wrongs of that trade, and with where Vizcaino is with the Braves right now it isn't completely outside the realm of possibilities.

The Braves moved Vizcaino quickly through their system this year, giving him stops at all 3 MiL levels before calling him up for an audition late in the season.  Vizcaino was impressive in 97 combined MiL innings, striking out 100 while walking just 28.  But as he moved up through the system, he started being used more as a reliever than a starter.  And his 17.1 IP at the Major League level in 2011 were all as a reliever, with his BB/9 increasing dramatically to 4.67 while his K/9 dipped slightly to 8.83, still a good number but not representative of the stuff and command combo he exhibited in the Minors.

This transition from starter to reliever could signify some uncertainty in Atlanta as to how they see Vizcaino being used at the Major League level.  The trade of Derek Lowe could signify a willingness to let him compete for a rotation spot in 2012, but utilizing him as a reliever late in 2011 probably did more harm than good to his development as a starter, and the Atlanta bullpen is a bit crowded right now with the emergence of Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, and Christhian Martinez in 2011.  If there is some internal waffling on what Vizcaino's future holds with the organization, now would be a perfect time for the Yankees to capitalize and bring his name up in discussions.

These are just 3 names that stood out most to me in looking at Atlanta's current roster.  I'm sure we could dig deeper into their farm system and find some attractive pieces as well or hypothesize about how to include Jason Heyward into a deal.  But a trade involving Eduardo Nunez isn't likely to be a blockbuster, and it would behoove the Yankees to not try to make it one and risk bringing guys like ManBan and Dellin Betances into the discussion.  They have needs, the Braves apparently have a want in Nunez, and that should be the main focus of the discussions.  While Atlanta currently has a high asking price for Jurrjens, that should come down if and when talks become real, and including guys like Conrad and Vizcaino in the talks should still allow the Yankees room to use their mid-level pieces to finish a deal if a trade became that involved.  Going back to what I said last week and what anybody with any sense would say, for the right deal nobody should be off the table.  And from a Yankee perspective, adding value at their positions of need for Eduardo Nunez would be the right deal.

Justin Verlander Is The MVP? Really?

Clemens '86- 254 IP, 24-4, 8.43 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 2.48 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 8.0 WAR

Pedro '99- 213.1 IP, 23-4, 13.20 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 2.07 ERA, 1.39 FIP, 12.1 WAR (only 31 GS)

Verlander '11- 251 IP, 25-4, 8.96 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 2.40 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 7.0 WAR

I don't get it.  I really don't.  Looking back at the way the voting went when Clemens won in 1986 and this year, it looks like both he and Verlander benefited from the same thing- a bunch of other position player candidates who all had similar great seasons without any one player distinguishing himself as head and shoulders above the others.  But if Pedro Martinez didn't win the MVP in 1999 with those numbers then there's no way you can convince me that Justin Verlander deserved the award in 2011 over guys like Bautista, Granderson, or Ellsbury.  And remember, this is a guy who hates the Fraud Sawx more than anything saying this.

The media jumped on the Verlander bandwagon late in the summer and basically hand delivered the award to him, and that's just sad.  Cy Young?  sure.  But more valuable than those everyday players and the seasons they had?  Not on your life.  MLB should just change to Most Popular Player Amongst The Media Award, or MPPATM, starting next season because that's really all it is now.

P.S.- Yes, I'm a grown man who just used a WWE clip of The Miz to express my disdain for the AL MVP Award voting.  Suck it.

Darvish Posting Not A Sure Thing?

In an article for Yahoo! Sports, Jeff Passan discussed the latest in the Yu Darvish situation and shed some light on the workings of the posting system for Japanese players looking to join Major League teams, which I admittedly had no idea was such a thorn in the teams or players.  The piece suggests that Darvish being posted might not be the 100% certainty that everybody perceives it to be if he decides to stand up against the system.  Check out some of the quotes:

"Yu Darvish, in the words of a confidant, 'wants to change baseball in Japan.'”

“'I’m concerned we’re not going to see him for a few more years,' said another GM in a similar position. 'He’s not your average Japanese player. I get the impression he wants to stand for something.'”

"So whether it is speaking out about the posting system or coming out in such favor of staying that it would embarrass the financially troubled Fighters if they posted him anyway for the millions in revenue it would bring, Darvish does command a position of strength, publicly if not legally."

On the one hand, I would have to respect Darvish if he decided to take a stand against the current system and stay in the NPB League.  On the other hand, I would have to be pissed at Darvish for doing so because it would mean the Yankees have no chance to sign him this year.  I know I'll definitely be paying closer attention to this story over the next couple weeks now that there's a possibility of Darvish not being posted, and I'm sure the Yankees will be doing the same.

Yu Darvish, freedom fighter against posting system tyranny!

MVP Vote Could Be A Crapshoot Today

(Who wants it?)

The AL MVP winner will be announced later today and the Yankees have 2 horses in the race in Curtis Granderson and Robbie Cano.  Towards the end of the regular season there was a lot of talk about who from the collection of top contenders would take home the award.  And between nobody really stepping up and distinguishing themselves during the season's final weeks and the quick transition to focusing on the playoffs, I feel like the MVP talk has fallen by the wayside this offseason.

The list of contenders this year is a deep one: the previously mentioned C-Grand and Cano from the Bombers, Adrian "God's Plan" Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury from Fraud Sawx Nation, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera from Detroit, and Jose Bautista from Toronto.  And all 7 guys have a real shot to win the award depending on how the votes go.  But who will rack up enough votes to take home the hardware?  And do Curtis and Robbie have a legit shot?

I'm not going to go through the numbers again because we all know them by now, but the short answer is yes, both guys should be considered real threats to win the award and Curtis could even end up stealing it.  But the big knock against both guys, besides the fact that the play for the Yankees, something that has already cost Nova and CC votes in their respective award races, is their negative defensive ratings in 2011.  Curtis' case has been talked about multiple times, and I still think his rating is a bit unfair thanks to the super human abilities of Brett Gardner in left, but voters likely won't consider that.  And Cano didn't have nearly the year in the field that he did in 2010, something that could force voters to look past his offensive numbers that were right on par with what he put up in 2010.  That, plus Curtis' low batting average, will stick out in some voters' minds and will likely be enough to cost both guys crucial points in the final tally.

The other interesting factor in play here today is the teammate factor.  There are 3 separate pairs of teammates amongst the group of top MVP contenders and that could work against all 6 of them if they end up splitting votes.  In the end I see that being enough to tip the scales in Jose Bautista's favor, even though I'm a firm believer that a player on a mediocre team should not be considered "most valuable."  So book Bautista for the award and another post tonight from me railing on the voters for not giving Curtis and Cano their due.

AB4AR Prediction: 1st) Bautista, 2nd) Ellsbury, 3rd) Granderson, 4th) Verlander, 5th) Gonzalez or Cano.

AB4AR FA Profile Recap

For those who didn't have the time during their busy work weeks to devote to the AB4AR Free Agent Profile series, here are the links to all 5 guys in one convenient post.  Study up and set the hierarchy of your pitcher wish list.  But mainly study up, that way you won't sound like an idiot when you think the Yankees not signing Mark Buehrle is the end of the world.

- Monday: C.J. Wilson

- Tuesday: Yu Darvish

- Wednesday: Roy Oswalt

- Thursday: Mark Buehrle

- Friday: Edwin Jackson

Thoughts On The 40-Man Moves

The Yankees made some roster moves yesterday in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, adding 5 guys to the 40-man to protect them: David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, David Adams, Corban Joseph, and Zoilo Almonte.  My quick take- all good moves.

- Phelps and Mitchell are both solid Triple-A starting prospects, just the type of Rule 5 gold that other teams look for.  They'll be among the crew of Triple-A arms that could be called on to make spot starts in 2012 or even play bigger roles if the Yankees' offseason plans to beef up the rotation don't pan out.  Mitchell is also an intriguing relief possibility.

- Adams, despite missing the better part of the 2010-2011 seasons because of a broken ankle, is still a guy worth keeping around because of his bat.  Before he got hurt in 2010, he was hitting .309/.393/.507 with a .403 wOBA in Double-A.  That's damn good production at the plate at any level.  And at 24, he still has time to re-establish himself.  Corban Joseph is cut from a similar cloth and could become a contender for a utility role in the show if he can continue to hit at Triple-A this coming season.

- Almonte is a personal favorite of mine, and with good reason after having a breakout year in 2011.  He hit .298/.373/.522 with a .402 wOBA in High-A this season before getting bumped up to Trenton.  He's 22 and has already shown an advanced approach and eye at the plate, so it will be interesting to see if he can replicate this year's success at the next level in 2012.

All of these guys would have likely drawn interest from other teams in the draft, so I'm glad the Yankees kept them around.  With only 1 open spot on the 40-man roster right now, that could mean we've seen the last of the likes of Kevin Whelan and/or Justin Maxwell.  But that's an acceptable loss to keep these 5 in house.

AB4AR Free Agent Profile: Edwin Jackson

(Worst no-hitter in MLB history?)

Last profile of the week for FA pitchers.  We go back down a little lower on the age ladder to get to Edwin Jackson.  He's an intriguing possibility, but one that comes with some bigger red flags than the other guys on the list.

Pros-

- He's young, just 28 right now, and already has plenty of experience.  After this past season, Jackson now has 5 full seasons as a starter under his belt, with 161.0+ IP in each of the 5 seasons.

- Durability.  Similar to Buehrle, Jackson has been able to rack up those innings over the past 5 years by being healthy and making at least 31 starts in each of those seasons.  He comes with little to no injury-related baggage.

- He's got pretty good stuff- Solid mid-90s fastball with a choice of slider, curve, or change from the offspeed menu.  The slider has been his best offspeed pitch over the course of his starting career, consistently rating above average.  And working with Larry Rothschild could help bring out better results from that stuff.

- Good trends.  Since '07, his first season as a full-time starter, Jackson has seen his FIP decrease every year from 4.90 in '07 to just 3.55 this past season.  He's also seen his WAR go from the mid 1.00s to 3.8 the past 2 seasons.  Again, it's worth noting that 3.8 would have been the Yankees' 2nd best amongst their starters in 2011.

Cons-

- Command.  Jackson's career BB/9 is 3.36, higher than you'd like to see from a top-line starter, and he's not known for being particularly efficient with his pitches.

- Jackson's career K/9 is pretty good (6.68), but those values have fluctuated dramatically between seasons.  This is likely tied to his inconsistent command, but with no clear trend in his K numbers it becomes hard to predict how Jackson's stuff would play in Yankee Stadium.

- In terms of a contact, Jackson's age will probably lead to him seeking a longer contract, 4 or 5 years, and for something around $10 mil per season.  For a guy with his inconsistent track record, that's a big commitment to make.  And considering the alternatives, both in-house and in the FA market, Jackson's services might not be worth that much to the Yankee brass.

In my opinion, Jackson is more a #3=#4-type starter based off his production and inconsistency.  And while he is young and has bounced around a lot, possibly something that could contribute to the inconsistency, I don't think he's worth the amount of years and money it will probably take to sign him.  Out of the 5 pitchers profiled this week, Jackson would be my last last resort, even after Mark Buehrle, and since we haven't heard many rumors regarding communication between his agent and Cash, it's safe to assume the Yankees feel the same way.

AB4AR EXCLUSIVE: First Photo Of Phil Hughes At Athletes' Performance In Cali

Holy shit!  Phil really was out of shape this year!  He looks terrible.

Well this changes everything I said before.  He really looks like he needs help.  It's a near miracle he was even able to step on the mound this past season in that kind of shape.  At least he's at a place where he can get back into playing shape and come back stronger next season.  Go get 'em, Phil!  Eye of the tiger, buddy.

(To anybody out there who reads AB4AR regularly and remembers the original post from last year that inspired this one, you're awesome.)

AB4AR Free Agent Profile: Mark Buehrle

(Happy Mark Buehrle is happy.  Courtesy of The AP)

At this point, we've moved from the #2-type starters down to the #3s.  First up, Mark "Curl of The" Buehrle.

(A Mastodon reference and Chris Berman joke in the same sentence.  Score!)

Pros-

- Consistency, consistency, consistency.  Buehrle is frighteningly consistent.  He's made at least 30 starts every year since his first full MLB season in 2001, thrown at least 201.0 innings every season since '01, and has won at least 10 games every season since '01 (at least 13 in 9 out of the 11 seasons).  To call the guy a workhorse would be an understatement.

- Durability, durability, durability.  Buehrle couldn't have put up that consistent level of production without being healthy.  He's never missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so his track record suggests that he would come with very low health-related risks despite the workload.

- His performance over these past 11 seasons has been above average.  Career 3.83 ERA, career 4.13 FIP, and 2 consecutive seasons of a FIP below 4.00.  He's also produced at least 3.4 WAR in all but one of his seasons.  The only Yankee starter to produce more than that last year was CC.

- Like Oswalt, Buehrle likes to work fast and throw strikes.  He generates a lot of swings and contact, but most of it is the weak type of contact he wants off of the cutter or changeup, his 2 best pitches.  Also like Oswalt, Buehrle has tremendous command.  His career BB/9 is just 2.05 and he's been at least 2.14 or lower in BB/9 every season since 2004.

- Dude can field his position like a boss.  3 straight Gold Gloves and the inspiration for the "Buehrle-Meter" on BBTN.

Cons-

- Stuff-wise Buehrle isn't much.  His average fastball velocity in 2011 was just 85.6 MPH and it's trending downward as he gets into his 30s.  The value of his fastball dropped from slightly above average in 2010 to 12.5 runs below average this past season, suggesting poor future results for him on the pitch he uses to set up his 2 out pitches.

- Because of the soft fastball and the fact that he pitches to contact, Buehrle's K rates aren't very good.  Career K/9 is 5.07 but he hasn't had a season with a K/9 above 5.00 since 2008.  Bill James projects a slight rebound in that category for 2012, but fewer Ks means more balls in play, and that could mean more balls pulled through the left side against Jeter and The Horse.

- Although he isn't as old as Oswalt, but at 32 Buehrle is approaching the downside of his career.  And while he hasn't gotten hurt yet, all that mileage on his arm over the last 10 years could just mean he's ready to break down as he approaches his mid-30s.

- Recently Buerhle hasn't been very good at the beginning or the end of seasons.  It's admittedly a bit of a nitpick, but for a team that's always going to be in the playoff hunt, the Yankees can't afford to have starters bombing in September and October.

The Yankees could certainly do worse than adding Buehrle to the 2012 rotation.  He would be the 2nd lefty that they haven't had since Pettitte retired, which would be nice to break up the righties.  But at his age with his stuff, Buehrle does not fit the top-of-the-rotation mold that the Yankees are looking for.  Combined with Nova, he could provide a solid stable of #3-#4-type pitchers behind CC if Hughes and A.J. can bounce back in 2012, and he also won't command nearly the dollars or years that Wilson or Darvish will.  You know you're going to get innings and above-average production from Buehrle, but odds are he will be looked at as more of a contingency plan for the Yankees in case they don't get one of the higher-upside guys.

Anybody Wanna Trade Brett Gardner? How About Russell Martin? Anybody?

Matt Imbrogno touched on this briefly yesterday, but there was one thing that Cash said the other day when speaking the media at the GM meetings that really stood out to me.  When asked if he had been engaged in trade talks with any other teams, Cash mentioned that teams had called asking about four specific players: Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, Russell Martin, and A.J. Burnett.  While he didn't say who the teams were, or what, if any, players they were offering up as hypothetical return trade pieces, the fact that there are teams out there interested in those four guys got me thinking.  And the more I think about it, the more I think I could live with any or all of them being traded.

Swish was really no surprise to read about.  There had been all kinds of rumblings about whether or not the Yankees should and would pick up his 2012 option, and you can't come across many Yankee blogs that haven't included Swish as potential trade bait to bring in a pitcher.  For what he brings to the table, Swish would be a valuable addition to almost any team.  He gets on base, he hits for power, hits from both sides of the plate, plays a good outfield, and can even be a backup option at first base if needed.  And he's in the last year of a contract, so wherever he plays this coming season you know he's going to be motivated to perform at a high level so he can earn a big pay day.

Brett Gardner, on the other hand, was one of the names that I was surprised to read, even though I probably shouldn't have been.  With his speed and ability to make contact, Gardner would be an ideal leadoff candidate for plenty of teams out there.  You throw in the good defense and the team-friendly salary and you could probably start a discussion with Billy Beane about one of his young pitchers around Gardner.  As valuable as he's been the last 2 years, the reality is that Gardner is the Yankees' #9 hitter and won't be leading off for them until Derek Jeter finally does fall off the offensive cliff.  Would you really say no to trading the team's #9 hitter and a prospect or two for Gio Gonzalez if that would get it done?

AB4AR Free Agent Profile: Roy Oswalt

(Oswalt doing this to Joe mid-game next season could be fun)

We've already looked at the potential 2011 version of A.J. Burnett and the latest high-profile Japanese import.  Today, let's focus on the wily veteran of the free agent group, Mr. Roy Oswalt.

Pros-

- Oswalt isn't just a proven commodity, he's a GOOD proven commodity.  Multiple ASGs, Cy Young contention in his prime, career 3.47 ERA, career 3.52 FIP, career 7.35 K/9.  All those things point to him being an ideal #2 starter candidate.

- He works fast and throws strikes, 2 qualities that seem to evade members of the Yankee rotation from time to time.  Oswalt works off the fastball mostly, and has a trio of offspeed pitches to use to get outs when he gets ahead in the count (curve, slider, change).

- He backs up his good stuff and aggressive approach with great command.  Oswalt's career BB/9 is just 2.09, and last year's 2.14 BB/9 shows that he doesn't appear to be losing his ability to throw strikes one bit.  And while his GB rate isn't as good as Wilson's (47.3% career, 45.1% last season), it still translates well to pitching in Yankee Stadium.

- As a 34-year-old veteran and a guy with a reputation as a consummate professional, Oswalt shouldn't come with any questions about whether or not he can "handle pitching in New York."

- Being a veteran approaching the downside of his career, Oswalt won't command nearly the years or the dollars that the other major FA starters will.  That gives the Yankees more salary flexibility and the chance to get more bang for their buck if Oswalt produces to his career averages.

Cons-

- Injuries, injuries, injuries.  Oswalt has a few DL trips on his ledger, but the big issue over the last 2 seasons has been his back.  It was so bad this past season that there were talks of Oswalt retiring because of the back problems.  Regardless of the money or the years it takes to get him, you almost have to pencil in Oswalt for one significant chunk of time on the DL next year and have a contingency plan in place.

- While he career numbers are solid, Oswalt's stuff appears to be trending in the wrong direction.  His fastball velocity has dropped in each of the last 2 seasons, from 93.1 in 2009 to 91.4 this past season.  The values of all his pitches declined in 2011, with each of his offspeed pitches actually scoring as below average.  And his 6.02 K/9 in 2011 was a career low, as was his 8.0 Swinging Strike %.

- Making the switch from the NL to AL, while not likely to affect Oswalt's psyche, could put a dent in his production when coupled with what appears to be declining stuff.  Pitching to the Mets and Nationals lineups isn't quite the same as pitching to the Sawx and Blue Jays.

- The track record is solid, but at 34 and with injury question marks, Oswalt does represent the "aging pitcher on the downside of his career" category that got the Yankees in trouble in the mid-2000s and that they've seemingly been trying to avoid the last couple seasons.

- With rumors going around that Oswalt would prefer to stay in the NL and may even be going back to Philly under a new contract, the Yankees could be fighting an uphill battle if they're serious about him.

I think a 34-year-old Roy Oswalt would be a help to the 2012 Yankee rotation, even if I see him as more of a #3-type starter than a #2 pitching in the AL East.  His skill set and approach on the mound are solid and he'd be a good clubhouse guy.  Hell, maybe he could even help figure out how to make A.J. a consistent pitcher.  But with the big glaring injury risk in his back, I wouldn't offer him more than a 1-year deal with an option for a 2nd.  If there is real interest on Oswalt's part, and the Yanks can get him for $6-8 mil, I'd be all for it.

CC Was Robbed (Sorta)

CC Sabathia pitched more innings than Jered Weaver this past season.  He won more games than Weaver, had more strikeouts and a better K rate than Weaver, had better GB and HR rates than Weaver.  He had a lower FIP, lower xFIP, and accumulated 1.5 more WAR than Weaver.

CC also had more wins, Ks, and a better K rate than James Shields.  He walked fewer guys than Shields and had a better BB/9 as well.  The gap between CC's FIP and Shields' is even wider than the gap between CC and Weaver.  And CC had 2.2 more WAR than Shields in 2011.

And somehow CC Sabathia finished behind these other 2 in the AL Cy Young voting yesterday.  In the grand scheme of things it didn't really matter, as Justin Verlander all but locked up the unanimous award some time in late August.  But the difference between finishing 2nd and 4th in the voting probably cost CC what would have been a much-deserved bonus, a bonus he could have used to buy some more kickass custom Air Jordan baseball cleats.

I'm calling shenanigans on the BWAA.  This is ridiculous.