It's real simple. If this report from Jerry Crasnick is true, and all indications are that it is, then Brian Cashman should be on the phone with Roy Oswalt's agent right now. And within a few days Roy Oswalt should be the newest member of the New York Yankees. Because right now, Roy Oswalt is exactly what the Yankees are looking for in every way.
In Oswalt, the Yankees are getting just the type of player they need, a true top-of-the-rotation stud. And not just one with a couple good seasons under his belt, but a real true stud. A guy with All Star Games and big postseason performances and Cy Young votes under his belt. Inserting Oswalt behind CC in the rotation immediately makes it better AND deeper than it is right now. And in Oswalt, the Yankees are getting a guy who is highly motivated and will be busting his balls to pitch well and have a great year. Oswalt's no fool. He knows there's no market out there for him right now for a multi-year contract because he's such a ticking time bomb with his bad back. If he can have one good year where he's healthy the whole time, he can probably convince a club to give him one more multi-year deal before he retires. He won't be coming in just to hang on and collect a paycheck; he's playing for a career. Bad back or not, "former ace and Cy Young candidate with a huge reason to pitch well" = "Good Investment."
And if it doesn't work out? He gets hurt again, misses a lot of time, misses the season, whatever. You know Cash wouldn't be stupid enough to move A.J. or Hughes because he would want a contingency plan for Oswalt, so the rotation would be right back where it would have been if the Yankees didn't sign Oswalt, which is where it is right now. And on a one-year deal, Oswalt poses little or no threat to the Yankees' continuing-to-become-more-apparent plan to cut payroll for 2014.
But if it does work out, and Oswalt comes into camp in great shape, stays healthy throughout the season, and pitches to the ability of his still-very-existent talent? Then the Yankees have to get vaulted right back to the top of the list of World Series favorites. And Joe can feel a hell of a lot more confident coming up with a postseason rotation in 2012.
Anything between those two outcomes is gravy, even if it's just a handful of starts, because it would almost assuredly be better than what A.J. would give the team as a 5th member of the rotation. And when you know it's a one-year deal, you just hope for the best and know that no matter what happens, you're out from under it and free after one year. It's basically the same situation the Yankees were in last offseason when they signed Freddy and Bart. And even at more money, Oswalt is still a better investment than many of us thought Colon and Garcia were because of the higher reward potential.
We look at the rotation and we see a lot of 3s and 4s, most of them with question marks attached related more to how much worse they'll do in 2012 than better. Roy Oswalt is a no-doubt upgrade over all of those guys and he's available for a one-year commitment. If the Yankees are or were considering giving $12 million for one year of Hiroki Kuroda's services, then they shouldn't even have to think about picking up the phone to make a similar deal to Oswalt.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
How The Cuddyer/Willingham Contracts Help Nick Swisher (And Potentially Hurt The Yankees)
Nick Swisher will head into the 2012 season on the last year of his current contract, one that has been incredibly friendly to the Yankees considering the production they have gotten since fleecing Kenny Williams trading for Swish prior to the 2009 season. In typical Yankee fashion, they have not discussed a new contract for Swish, instead choosing to pick up his 2011 option and then see where they are after the season. That could end up working out well for Swish if he has a big year in 2012, but that won't be known for months. What is known is that two players comparable to Swish both signed new contracts this past week, essentially laying the groundwork for a starting point to Swish's new contract.
Josh Willingham took a 3-year/$21 million deal from the Minnesota Twins to replace the departed Michael Cuddyer, who then signed a 3-year/$31.5 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. If we're using these two as a measuring stick for Swish, at first glance it appears that we're looking at three incredibly similar players.
There's a little more consistency to Willingham's wOBA plot (purple), and some surprisingly similar fluctuation to Swish's and Cuddyer's breakdowns (green and orange respectively), but on average these guys appear to be basically the same hitter. Swish sports a .254/.360/.466 tripleslash, .357 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ in 4,389 career PA, Cuddyer a .272/.343/.451, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+ line in 4,555 PA, and Willingham a .262/.371/.477, .364 wOBA, 123 wRC+ line in 3,166 career PA. All three guys have some pop and some patience at the plate to help cover for the fact that none of them are natural "elite" hitters in terms of batting average. Working in these broad strokes, there is some basis for Swish's market value being set in a similar $8-12 million range
The advantage that Swish has over his counterparts is time, both in terms of the time he has on his side as a younger player and what he's already done with the time he's spent in the Majors. Swish will be 31 next year, still in his physical prime, while both Cuddyer and Willingham will turn 33 before Opening Day 2012. Those 2 years in hand put Swish in a much better position to demand more years and more money. And looking at what Swish has already accomplished in a similar span of years helps to further separate him from Cuddyer and Willingham. When these 3 players are compared in terms of WAR, the gap between them starts to increase in Swish's favor.
In a comparable amount of playing time, Swish (blue) has racked up significantly more cumulative WAR than both Cuddyer (green) and Willingham (red). This added value for Swish can be attributed to his durability (at least 131 games played in every season since his first full one in '05 and at least 150 games played in every season since '06), his higher BB rate (13.5% career), and Swish establishing himself as an above-average defensive player at multiple positions over the span of his career. Swish has provided positive defensive value as a corner outfielder and first baseman while Cuddyer and Willingham haven't done anything to get themselves confused for Gold Glovers anywhere in the field. Not only is he younger, Swish is a more well-rounded baseball player who produces at a higher level.
That being the case, what kind of deal can Swish expect to get if guys who rate lower than him are pulling in 7 and slightly over 10 mil per year in their new deals? As a player who will still be younger than Cuddyer and Willingham were this offseason, and one who has a better health track record, a 4-year deal should be expected to be the minimum offered to Swish in terms of contract length, with 5 not being out of the question if he has another good season in 2012. And if he does continue his 3-year trend and have another good all-around season, Swisher would be in position to expect a significant boost in salary from the $10+ million he'll make this coming season. $14-15 million per year wouldn't be out of the question, perhaps more if some teams were really interested in Swish's services.
And this is where things could get interesting for the Yankees. One way or another, they're going to need a right fielder after the 2012 season unless they break their normal operating procedure and negotiate with Swish during the season. But if the Yankees are serious about getting down to $189 million in payroll for 2014, which seems more and more likely with each passing day, then a "4-5-year/$15ish million per"-type contract might not fit into those plans. As Larry Koestler pointed out yesterday, the OF free agent market in 2012 isn't a particularly deep one, so Swish very well could be the best available right fielder. And there isn't anybody in the upper levels of the Yankee system who they can expect to step into the full-time RF role in 2013, unless Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa go completely off-the-charts H.A.M. in 2012. Swish is going to have all the bargaining power with the Yankees and the Yankees are going to have a serious decision to make with Swish.
They could try to paint with broad strokes like we did earlier, show how Swish's career offensive numbers compare to guys like Cuddyer and Willingham, and attempt to lowball him on an offer for $10-12 million a year. But if he posts his fourth straight season of 3-4-WAR production, Swish and his agent will know he's worth more than that, and they'll be proven right when other teams who are interested offer more. If the Yankees weren't willing to get involved with a pitcher in his early-30s this year when the price was around $15 million per for 5 years and they had a clear need for rotation help, how likely are they going to be to get involved with an outfielder in his early-30s for the same figures when they don't have a clear need for offensive help?
There's a lot that could happen that could affect this situation once the season begins. Swish could get injured and miss a lot of time, the Yankees could have some big improvements or regressions from some key lineup members in 2012 that could make losing Swish's production easier or more difficult to handle in 2013. Who knows? But right now, with the deals Cuddyer and Willingham got, and how favorably Swisher compares to them as a baseball player, the price and negotiating power in a deal are both increasing for Swish. And if the Yankees have a desire to include Swish in their future plans AND trim payroll, that might not be a good thing for them.
(Graphs via FanGraphs. Click for larger version)
Josh Willingham took a 3-year/$21 million deal from the Minnesota Twins to replace the departed Michael Cuddyer, who then signed a 3-year/$31.5 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. If we're using these two as a measuring stick for Swish, at first glance it appears that we're looking at three incredibly similar players.
There's a little more consistency to Willingham's wOBA plot (purple), and some surprisingly similar fluctuation to Swish's and Cuddyer's breakdowns (green and orange respectively), but on average these guys appear to be basically the same hitter. Swish sports a .254/.360/.466 tripleslash, .357 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ in 4,389 career PA, Cuddyer a .272/.343/.451, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+ line in 4,555 PA, and Willingham a .262/.371/.477, .364 wOBA, 123 wRC+ line in 3,166 career PA. All three guys have some pop and some patience at the plate to help cover for the fact that none of them are natural "elite" hitters in terms of batting average. Working in these broad strokes, there is some basis for Swish's market value being set in a similar $8-12 million range
The advantage that Swish has over his counterparts is time, both in terms of the time he has on his side as a younger player and what he's already done with the time he's spent in the Majors. Swish will be 31 next year, still in his physical prime, while both Cuddyer and Willingham will turn 33 before Opening Day 2012. Those 2 years in hand put Swish in a much better position to demand more years and more money. And looking at what Swish has already accomplished in a similar span of years helps to further separate him from Cuddyer and Willingham. When these 3 players are compared in terms of WAR, the gap between them starts to increase in Swish's favor.
In a comparable amount of playing time, Swish (blue) has racked up significantly more cumulative WAR than both Cuddyer (green) and Willingham (red). This added value for Swish can be attributed to his durability (at least 131 games played in every season since his first full one in '05 and at least 150 games played in every season since '06), his higher BB rate (13.5% career), and Swish establishing himself as an above-average defensive player at multiple positions over the span of his career. Swish has provided positive defensive value as a corner outfielder and first baseman while Cuddyer and Willingham haven't done anything to get themselves confused for Gold Glovers anywhere in the field. Not only is he younger, Swish is a more well-rounded baseball player who produces at a higher level.
That being the case, what kind of deal can Swish expect to get if guys who rate lower than him are pulling in 7 and slightly over 10 mil per year in their new deals? As a player who will still be younger than Cuddyer and Willingham were this offseason, and one who has a better health track record, a 4-year deal should be expected to be the minimum offered to Swish in terms of contract length, with 5 not being out of the question if he has another good season in 2012. And if he does continue his 3-year trend and have another good all-around season, Swisher would be in position to expect a significant boost in salary from the $10+ million he'll make this coming season. $14-15 million per year wouldn't be out of the question, perhaps more if some teams were really interested in Swish's services.
And this is where things could get interesting for the Yankees. One way or another, they're going to need a right fielder after the 2012 season unless they break their normal operating procedure and negotiate with Swish during the season. But if the Yankees are serious about getting down to $189 million in payroll for 2014, which seems more and more likely with each passing day, then a "4-5-year/$15ish million per"-type contract might not fit into those plans. As Larry Koestler pointed out yesterday, the OF free agent market in 2012 isn't a particularly deep one, so Swish very well could be the best available right fielder. And there isn't anybody in the upper levels of the Yankee system who they can expect to step into the full-time RF role in 2013, unless Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa go completely off-the-charts H.A.M. in 2012. Swish is going to have all the bargaining power with the Yankees and the Yankees are going to have a serious decision to make with Swish.
They could try to paint with broad strokes like we did earlier, show how Swish's career offensive numbers compare to guys like Cuddyer and Willingham, and attempt to lowball him on an offer for $10-12 million a year. But if he posts his fourth straight season of 3-4-WAR production, Swish and his agent will know he's worth more than that, and they'll be proven right when other teams who are interested offer more. If the Yankees weren't willing to get involved with a pitcher in his early-30s this year when the price was around $15 million per for 5 years and they had a clear need for rotation help, how likely are they going to be to get involved with an outfielder in his early-30s for the same figures when they don't have a clear need for offensive help?
There's a lot that could happen that could affect this situation once the season begins. Swish could get injured and miss a lot of time, the Yankees could have some big improvements or regressions from some key lineup members in 2012 that could make losing Swish's production easier or more difficult to handle in 2013. Who knows? But right now, with the deals Cuddyer and Willingham got, and how favorably Swisher compares to them as a baseball player, the price and negotiating power in a deal are both increasing for Swish. And if the Yankees have a desire to include Swish in their future plans AND trim payroll, that might not be a good thing for them.
(Graphs via FanGraphs. Click for larger version)
Totally Nailed The Darvish Bidding
I know it was only 5 days ago, so it's not like I possess any kind of real prognostication skills, but I do recall making this statement after the bidding period closed for Yu Darvish last week:
"With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter."
Haha, how do ya like them apples? Didn't need any fancy insider information or anonymous league sources, just good old fashioned logic and my keen Polish intellect. Yes sir, I can smell a job offer from ESPNNY on the horizon. Andrew Marchand and Buster Olney better watch their fucking backs because I've got my finger on the pulse of Major League Baseball.
P.S.- $51.7 million just for the rights to negotiate with the guy??? I know I said the Rangers needed a top-flight starter, but that's a serious price to pay. By the time the contract gets done, they're looking at $100-120 million committed to Darvish. That makes it a little more understandable as to why the Yankees didn't get heavily involved.
"With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter."
Haha, how do ya like them apples? Didn't need any fancy insider information or anonymous league sources, just good old fashioned logic and my keen Polish intellect. Yes sir, I can smell a job offer from ESPNNY on the horizon. Andrew Marchand and Buster Olney better watch their fucking backs because I've got my finger on the pulse of Major League Baseball.
P.S.- $51.7 million just for the rights to negotiate with the guy??? I know I said the Rangers needed a top-flight starter, but that's a serious price to pay. By the time the contract gets done, they're looking at $100-120 million committed to Darvish. That makes it a little more understandable as to why the Yankees didn't get heavily involved.
Monday, December 19, 2011
What The 25-Man Roster Would Look Like Today
(Who would be joining these fine gentlemen on the bench today? Courtesy of The AP)
A fun game to play during slow periods in the offseason is constructing the 25-man roster from what is currently available. Since the entire offseason has basically been a slow period for the Yankees after they signed CC and Freddy, some sites are already turning to this post idea. The problem, though, is that people aren't being real about their selections. They're leaving the open bullpen and bench slots open, as if the Yankees were going to say, "you know what, we haven't signed or traded for the guys we really want in these roles, so we're just going to go with 21 players and some blank spaces if that's alright." Come on, people. That takes all the fun right of it. If the season were starting tomorrow, the Yankees would have to at least have 25 warm bodies on the roster and on the bench to play the game, not "???" as the 4th outfielder or "--" as the long man out of the 'pen. So I'll take it upon myself to play this game the RIGHT way and give you the 25-man roster as it would stand today.
Lineup
C- Russell Martin
1B- Mark Teixeira
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Alex Rodriguez
LF- Brett Gardner
CF- Curtis Granderson
RF- Nick Swisher
DH- Jesus Montero
Rotation
SP- CC Sabathia
SP- Ivan Nova
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Freddy Garcia
SP- Phil Hughes
Bullpen
RP- Mariano Rivera
RP- Dave Robertson
RP- Rafael Soriano
RP- Boone Logan
RP- Cory Wade
RP- George Kontos
RP- Brad Meyers**
Bench
C- Francisco Cervelli
IF- Eduardo Nunez
OF- Chris Dickerson
IF- Brandon Laird
The lineup and the rotation are obviously set (for now), so no big discussion points there. But shit starts getting a little iffy as we move to the back of the bullpen and the bench area. With Joba still on the shelf recovering from TJS until the summer, I looked at the rest of the guys on the 40-man and determined that George Kontos was the most likely to get a spot based on his 2011 body of work. And with Hector Noesi already being penciled into the Triple-A rotation to keep him stretched out as a starter, Brad Meyers was the best option as long man out of the 'pen.** With a core group of Mo-D-Rob, Sour Puss, Boone Logan, and Wade, that's still a damn good bullpen.
The bench, on the other hand, is a desolate wasteland of Quadruple-A talent. Francisco Cervelli will likely be on as a 3rd catcher again since the Yankees don't seem interested in having Jesus carry that load on his own. And for now, it would be Nunez, Dickerson, and Laird filling out the backup spots, although those are the spots most subject to change if the Yankees agree to new deals with guys like Andruw Jones and Nakajima. Hopefully they do make some deals to beef up the bench, because I could probably grab 3 people from around my office to fill those spots and our production would be comparable.
It's not as strong or as deep as it will be once Spring Training rolls around. But you have to work with what you've got, and right now this is the roster the Yankees would have to roll with if Game 1 was tomorrow.
**- If you didn't want a 7-man bullpen, substitute somebody like Ramiro Pena or Justin Maxwell in as a 5th bench body for Meyers.
Yankees Once Again The Most Evil Empire
With Kim Jong-Il dying today, that has to put the New York Yankees back at #1 on the list of Evil Empires in the world, right? I mean, they haven't exactly been bullying other teams around and flexing their evil muscles this offseason, but they're still pretty evil. And true evil sometimes stays low on the radar, to lure others into a false sense of security. No doubt that's what the Yankees have been doing, just biding their time, letting old KJ mentally and physically over-work himself to death and then swooping in once he croaks to re-assume the evil throne that is rightfully theirs. Jong-il's goofy little son may be running the show in North Korea now, but that goober doesn't hold a candle to Hank and Hal, or Cash for that matter.
It wouldn't shock me at all if it turned out the Yankees had a hit man on that train with Kim, and Cash gave the go word on the hit personally. It'd certainly be the biggest move by the Yankees so far this offseason if he did.
P.S.- If anybody from North Korea is reading this, I'm just playin'.
It wouldn't shock me at all if it turned out the Yankees had a hit man on that train with Kim, and Cash gave the go word on the hit personally. It'd certainly be the biggest move by the Yankees so far this offseason if he did.
P.S.- If anybody from North Korea is reading this, I'm just playin'.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Yoenis Cespedes: The Sequel
You knew he wasn't just going to leave us hanging out there without hitting us with a sequel. A new Yoenis Cespedes video has hit the internet, and it's a collection of highlights from his pro day workout. No weirdass ab exercises in this one; definitely more geared towards actual baseball skills, even if most of the video showed him getting ready to do those baseball skills rather than actually doing them.
If you were paying attention, you probably noticed Tony Pena and Billy Eppler around the 4:15-4:16 mark, confirming that the Yankees have been among the teams who have scouted Cespedes the most. I'm still not sold on him being a game-changing prospect based off of this video, but I will say that Cespedes has some skills and the dude is definitely a monster athlete. Jay Bilas would be creaming his jeans if Cespedes was a basketball prospect and not a baseball one.
If you were paying attention, you probably noticed Tony Pena and Billy Eppler around the 4:15-4:16 mark, confirming that the Yankees have been among the teams who have scouted Cespedes the most. I'm still not sold on him being a game-changing prospect based off of this video, but I will say that Cespedes has some skills and the dude is definitely a monster athlete. Jay Bilas would be creaming his jeans if Cespedes was a basketball prospect and not a baseball one.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Yanks Win More Awards
Last night, Major League Baseball had its own awards, the Greatness in Baseball Yearly Awards or GIBBYs. Unlike many of the other major awards given out each year in baseball, the Yankees weren't shafted in the voting for the GIBBYs. In fact, they cleaned up last night, taking home 3 awards.
- Dave Robertson: Setup Man of the Year. Well earned when you check his stat line at FanGraphs.
- Robinson Cano: Wow Factor. Don't really know what that award means, but I know I say "wow" a lot when I'm watching Cano hit and field. So this makes sense.
- Moment of the Year: Derek Jeter. When you're one of the game's most popular players and have been for over 10 years now, and you go 5-5 on the day that you get your 3,000th hit including a home run for that 3,000th and the game-winning RBI on your fifth hit, you're probably going to win Moment of the Year. That's some hardcore Disney shit and I still can't believe it happened.
So there you go. The sting of the ridiculous voting in the MVP and Cy Young awards earlier has been eased a little. And the Yankees can carry the pride that comes with winning 3 prestigious GIBBY Awards in one season into Spring Training.
- Dave Robertson: Setup Man of the Year. Well earned when you check his stat line at FanGraphs.
- Robinson Cano: Wow Factor. Don't really know what that award means, but I know I say "wow" a lot when I'm watching Cano hit and field. So this makes sense.
- Moment of the Year: Derek Jeter. When you're one of the game's most popular players and have been for over 10 years now, and you go 5-5 on the day that you get your 3,000th hit including a home run for that 3,000th and the game-winning RBI on your fifth hit, you're probably going to win Moment of the Year. That's some hardcore Disney shit and I still can't believe it happened.
So there you go. The sting of the ridiculous voting in the MVP and Cy Young awards earlier has been eased a little. And the Yankees can carry the pride that comes with winning 3 prestigious GIBBY Awards in one season into Spring Training.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Would Not Getting Yu Darvish Be The Final Sign That The Yankees Are Serious About Cutting Costs?
(Better to save for 2014 than to spend in 2011?)
I ask because it's looking that was already a strong possibility with the way Cash has gone about his business this offseason, and the word around the MLB water cooler since Wednesday night has been that the Yanks' bid was relatively low and the Blue Jays' bid was a monster one. 3 years ago, the last time the Yankees made a declaration that they were going to improve the rotation, the roles would have been reversed. But in 2011 the Yankees have been the model of fiscal responsibility while those around them spend gobs of money to lock up the top FA targets available.
And it's more than just not spending the money on guys. The Yankees haven't even really been as deeply involved with the big names as they typically are. They declined a second meeting with C.J. Wilson and his agent, only had "preliminary" talks with Mark Buehrle, didn't even try to get their name connected to Albert Pujols, and now reportedly came in with a small posting bid for Yu Darvish, a guy they've spent 3+ years scouting. And with what's left out there (Oswalt, Kuroda, Edwin Jackson), there are hardly any substantial rumors connecting any of those 3 to the Yankees. Right now, they seem very content with what they've done in bringing back CC and Freddy and content to keep their payroll at or only slightly above what it currently is.
We always have to keep our minds open to the possibility of Cash and Co. pulling one over on everybody, and maybe next Tuesday it will be the Yankees who win the Darvish posting with a large bid. But it doesn't look that way right now, and if they don't win the posting I think that signals them taking a serious approach to shrinking payroll and wouldn't expect to see any more major pitching acquisitions this offseason and possibly next. The efforts on getting the payroll down, an effort that would reap some rewards in future years, rather than the usual "World Series or bust" offseason approach is a smart one, and I can get on board with it. It will just take some getting used to.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Talking About The New Labor Deal Details
A bunch of details of the new labor detail were released earlier this week. And as someone who's on the record as a hater of all things CBA-related, I have to say that I'm liking a lot of the stuff I read about these new changes. It's nothing earth-shattering, but many of the changes are very simple, very reasonable, and stand to make the game better. If simple, basic logic was used like this all the time when making decisions about the game, I could probably get into the business side of baseball. For example:
- Instant Replay: Expansion to cover fair/foul calls, trapped catches, and fan interference (still needs to be approved by the umpires).
It's about damn time. Baseball has been and is the furthest behind the times of the 4 major sports when it comes to replay, and it seems like the more replay has been talked about over the past couple seasons the more we've seen plays happen where the right call could have been made if umpires could check the replay. Adding these situations as reviewable plays by replay is a big step forward in closing the gap and should help to ensure that it's the play on the field that determines the winner and not the umps.
- All-Star Break: Changed from 3 days to 4, with the option of moving the HR Derby back from Monday to Tuesday and the ASG from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Makes perfect sense to me. I mean, 3 days is hardly a break. That's just a long weekend in my book. Now everybody gets a little more time to rest, a little more time to see their families, and a little extra time to travel to wherever the ASG is being held. If this doesn't help bring a little more star power and relevancy back to the ASG, nothing will. Now if only they could agree to shrink the rosters back down so we aren't stuck watching the Watered Down Pool of Very Good Players Game every year, that would be something.
- Game Schedules: Re-alignment to six 5-team divisions, with each team playing 17 or 18 games against each divisional opponent and no more than 20 interleague games per team.
Another very simple, logical decision. Houston moves to the AL, all the divisions are finally balanced, and facing divisional opponents is still the most important part of a team's schedule. I'm a firm believer that the shtick of interleague play has long worn off, so the fewer interleague games the better in my book. Just keep it to the geographic and historical rivalries and let that be that.
- Scoring Decisions: A ban on players a/o coaches asking official scorers to change decisions. Instead, a formal appeal must be sent to MLB with video evidence.
No more home cooking from the stadium scorers. If you think you deserve a hit or an RBI, prove it and let the governing body make a decision. Nothing wrong with that. The less I have to see clips of David Ortiz barging into postgame press conferences to whine to his manager about a scoring play, the happier I'll be.
- Uniform Number Changes: Players must inform MLB 8 months in advance if they want to switch their uniform number while still on the same team, or be willing to buy up all the merchandise that has the current number.
This is the Chad Ochocinco Rule, right? I have to admit that I haven't heard of any situation where a baseball player has caused a merchandise-related issue by switching numbers mid-season, but in case anybody was thinking about it, now there's a rule for it. This should come in handy for the guys who get stuck with crummy numbers in the 60s and 70s when they first come up and want to switch to "real" number.
- Playoff Matchups: Teams from the same division can now face each other in the Wild Card round.
Duh. This is one that never made any sense to me. Record should determine playoff seeding, simple as that. But that goes out the window in baseball if the two teams that would match up based on record are from the same division? Why? What does it matter if they play in the Wild Card Round or League Championship? Truth be told, I'd rather see the Yankees playing the Rays in the first round as opposed to the ALCS. Get it out of the way early. Now that can happen.
- Tattoos: No tats allowed showing corporate logos.
Again, I didn't realize that this was such a potential epidemic amongst the players. But if Robbie Cano was thinking of treating himself to a big old CM Punk-style Pepsi tattoo on his forearm some time in 2014, he's going to have to think again. And really, MLB and the teams already do enough to pimp themselves out to corporate sponsors. The players were really the only thing left that wasn't being used to sell ad space.
- 40-Man Roster Perks: Everybody on the 40-man during Spring Training gets his own room.
Can you just see the Triple-A guys on the 40-man who are only there as emergency injury backups high fiving each other when they get to sunny Tampa? My own room?!?! NICE!! It's a little thing, but as somebody who despised having roommates I can see why this would be important to a player. You're a grown man working at your profession. You don't need to feel like you're at freshman orientation weekend in college.
It's not quite enough to make up for shafting the Yankees out of their monetary advantages, but if these changes help improve the product on the field as I expect them to, then I'm happy with them. Of course, this is just one man's opinion. What say you, Yankee faithful?
- Instant Replay: Expansion to cover fair/foul calls, trapped catches, and fan interference (still needs to be approved by the umpires).
It's about damn time. Baseball has been and is the furthest behind the times of the 4 major sports when it comes to replay, and it seems like the more replay has been talked about over the past couple seasons the more we've seen plays happen where the right call could have been made if umpires could check the replay. Adding these situations as reviewable plays by replay is a big step forward in closing the gap and should help to ensure that it's the play on the field that determines the winner and not the umps.
- All-Star Break: Changed from 3 days to 4, with the option of moving the HR Derby back from Monday to Tuesday and the ASG from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Makes perfect sense to me. I mean, 3 days is hardly a break. That's just a long weekend in my book. Now everybody gets a little more time to rest, a little more time to see their families, and a little extra time to travel to wherever the ASG is being held. If this doesn't help bring a little more star power and relevancy back to the ASG, nothing will. Now if only they could agree to shrink the rosters back down so we aren't stuck watching the Watered Down Pool of Very Good Players Game every year, that would be something.
- Game Schedules: Re-alignment to six 5-team divisions, with each team playing 17 or 18 games against each divisional opponent and no more than 20 interleague games per team.
Another very simple, logical decision. Houston moves to the AL, all the divisions are finally balanced, and facing divisional opponents is still the most important part of a team's schedule. I'm a firm believer that the shtick of interleague play has long worn off, so the fewer interleague games the better in my book. Just keep it to the geographic and historical rivalries and let that be that.
- Scoring Decisions: A ban on players a/o coaches asking official scorers to change decisions. Instead, a formal appeal must be sent to MLB with video evidence.
No more home cooking from the stadium scorers. If you think you deserve a hit or an RBI, prove it and let the governing body make a decision. Nothing wrong with that. The less I have to see clips of David Ortiz barging into postgame press conferences to whine to his manager about a scoring play, the happier I'll be.
- Uniform Number Changes: Players must inform MLB 8 months in advance if they want to switch their uniform number while still on the same team, or be willing to buy up all the merchandise that has the current number.
This is the Chad Ochocinco Rule, right? I have to admit that I haven't heard of any situation where a baseball player has caused a merchandise-related issue by switching numbers mid-season, but in case anybody was thinking about it, now there's a rule for it. This should come in handy for the guys who get stuck with crummy numbers in the 60s and 70s when they first come up and want to switch to "real" number.
- Playoff Matchups: Teams from the same division can now face each other in the Wild Card round.
Duh. This is one that never made any sense to me. Record should determine playoff seeding, simple as that. But that goes out the window in baseball if the two teams that would match up based on record are from the same division? Why? What does it matter if they play in the Wild Card Round or League Championship? Truth be told, I'd rather see the Yankees playing the Rays in the first round as opposed to the ALCS. Get it out of the way early. Now that can happen.
- Tattoos: No tats allowed showing corporate logos.
Again, I didn't realize that this was such a potential epidemic amongst the players. But if Robbie Cano was thinking of treating himself to a big old CM Punk-style Pepsi tattoo on his forearm some time in 2014, he's going to have to think again. And really, MLB and the teams already do enough to pimp themselves out to corporate sponsors. The players were really the only thing left that wasn't being used to sell ad space.
- 40-Man Roster Perks: Everybody on the 40-man during Spring Training gets his own room.
Can you just see the Triple-A guys on the 40-man who are only there as emergency injury backups high fiving each other when they get to sunny Tampa? My own room?!?! NICE!! It's a little thing, but as somebody who despised having roommates I can see why this would be important to a player. You're a grown man working at your profession. You don't need to feel like you're at freshman orientation weekend in college.
It's not quite enough to make up for shafting the Yankees out of their monetary advantages, but if these changes help improve the product on the field as I expect them to, then I'm happy with them. Of course, this is just one man's opinion. What say you, Yankee faithful?
Bidding Closed On Darvish
And all indications point to him wearing a uniform other than the Yankees pinstripes in 2012. David Waldstein reported last night that the deal was "not huge" and was only submitted in the final few hours before the 5PM deadline, and Jon Heyman called the Yankees' bid "modest" while saying the winning bid was "sky-high."
My guess? With the latest contract rumors for Darvish starting at 5 years/$75 million and the Yankees likely wanting to keep their total spent on Darvish below $100 mil, I think they probably bid somewhere between $20-25 million to keep themselves at the 100 mil ceiling. With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter.
To scout a guy who fits your rotational needs for 3 years and then submit a low bid in the final hours of his posting period is not the typical Yankee way of going after a target. This fiscally responsible, cost cutting initiative is starting to look more and more real each day.
My guess? With the latest contract rumors for Darvish starting at 5 years/$75 million and the Yankees likely wanting to keep their total spent on Darvish below $100 mil, I think they probably bid somewhere between $20-25 million to keep themselves at the 100 mil ceiling. With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter.
To scout a guy who fits your rotational needs for 3 years and then submit a low bid in the final hours of his posting period is not the typical Yankee way of going after a target. This fiscally responsible, cost cutting initiative is starting to look more and more real each day.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
No Rush To Re-Sign Russell Martin
(Courtesy of Getty Images)
Russell Martin is all but guaranteed to be a Yankee in 2012 after he was among the group of players to whom the Yankees tendered contracts on Monday. He was almost a steal for $4 mil this past season, rebounding from his injury problems to put up a .237/.324/.408 tripleslash, .325 wOBA, and 3.1 WAR in 125 games and finally putting an end to the Jorge Posada Catching Era. And while his contract this year will be for more money, Martin is still going to be a bargain for the Yankees in 2012. Already, though, there is chatter starting to leak out about extending Martin beyond this upcoming season, to which I must say "shhh."
There is no reason to even entertain any thought of signing Martin to a multi-year deal right now. Yes, he's a solid all-around catcher still on the good side of age 30, but let's not forget that he's also just one year removed from being non-tendered by his former team thanks to his constant injuries and nosediving production. 2011 was a step in the right direction for him, but was still just one step. Before we start talking about guaranteeing more years and more money to Martin, shouldn't we wait to see how he does in 2012? Make sure that 2011 was not just a blip on the downtrend radar? This is where his one-year status works to the Yankees' advantage. It gives them another chance to assess his performance and health over a whole season and make an informed decision on where they'd like to go with him in the future.
The other benefit that Martin's one-year situation gives the Yankees is an in-house backup plan to any plans they might have to break in Jesus Montero and Austin Romine behind the plate. There are questions about whether either of those 2 can be full-time catchers at the Major League level, and 2012 should be the time for them to show what they can or can't do. If the Yankees decide Jesus or Romine can handle the job full time in 2013, then they aren't tied to Martin for more years and more money as a backup. They can let him go and move on smoothly. If the young'ns can't hack it, the Yankees have Martin right there available to re-sign, and after another year of seeing how he holds up. He might cost a bit more at that point, but it's money that the team can be more confident in spending.
The situation with Russell Martin is a win-win for the Yankees any way you look at right now. He provides stability and flexibility at the same time, and to extend his contract now would take that away. Cash has been big on preaching patience the last few years and that's exactly what the Yankees need to be in handling Martin. Patient. Let him go out in 2012 and earn that new contract.
Get Me Lou Piniella On Color Commentary, STAT!!
I missed it yesterday, but this story from The Daily News about Lou returning to the Yankees in 2012 as a ST instructor and YES commentator might very well be the best acquisition the Yanks have made this offseason. It also is the latest reason for me to curse myself for ever moving out to Wisconsin and missing out on the convenience of having the YES Network any time I wanted it.
The stable of YES guys is already pretty strong. I like O'Neill, I like Flaherty, I like Leiter, and I LOVE me some David Cone. Adding Sweet Lou to that mix is like including that one last ingredient on Chopped that brings all the flavor profiles together. He'll be the managerial yin to the other guys' yangs (gross) in terms of breaking down a game, he might be able to provide a little insight into what Joe is thinking when he makes some of his bizarre bullpen decisions, and he's still Lou Piniella. He's a crazy old guy who's likely to still have some of that old fire in his belly. I can't wait to hear him the first time he gets fired up about a bad play or bad call. It'd be like watching a game with your crazy uncle.
I also wouldn't mind seeing him pull one of these on Michael Kay in the booth the first time they disagree on something:
The stable of YES guys is already pretty strong. I like O'Neill, I like Flaherty, I like Leiter, and I LOVE me some David Cone. Adding Sweet Lou to that mix is like including that one last ingredient on Chopped that brings all the flavor profiles together. He'll be the managerial yin to the other guys' yangs (gross) in terms of breaking down a game, he might be able to provide a little insight into what Joe is thinking when he makes some of his bizarre bullpen decisions, and he's still Lou Piniella. He's a crazy old guy who's likely to still have some of that old fire in his belly. I can't wait to hear him the first time he gets fired up about a bad play or bad call. It'd be like watching a game with your crazy uncle.
I also wouldn't mind seeing him pull one of these on Michael Kay in the booth the first time they disagree on something:
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Derek Jeter Is A Pimp In Every Sense Of The Word
"Yankee star Derek Jeter, one of New York’s most eligible hunks since his split with longtime gal pal Minka Kelly, is bedding a bevy of beauties in his Trump World Tower bachelor pad — and then coldly sending them home alone with gift baskets of autographed memorabilia....
'Derek has girls stay with him at his apartment in New York, and then he gets them a car to take them home the next day. Waiting in his car is a gift basket containing signed Jeter memorabilia, usually a signed baseball,' the friend dished." (courtesy of The Post)
This story is going around all over the sports blogosphere today, mainly with a negative spin to it, and I just don't get it. How is this supposed to be a bad thing? To me this is just Jeter playing chess in the booty-getting game once again while the rest of us regular guys are playing checkers.
Consider. Derek Jeter has established the all-time greatest list of celebrity conquests in the history of human existence. No everyday chick can bring to the table what some of his previous ladies can, and they know it. More importantly, he knows it. But he knows it's a big deal for them to get to meet, hang out with, and bang him. I mean, he is the guy who did this:
And he's a 5-time world champion, and he's a member of the 3,000 Hit Club, and he's still pretty damn hot. So what does he do? He treats them to a wonderful evening out on the town, takes 'em back to his place (discreetly, of course), shows 'em The Captain, takes care of business, and then sends them home with a little memento. It makes them feel more special and not just like another notch on Jeter's belt and also serves as proof for them when they tell their friends that they hooked up with Derek Jeter. It's genius.
This is the smoothest move I've seen since I decided to skip the tie at senior prom and rocked a badass button stud instead. It's just Jeter being Jeter and if you expected anything different you're either a moron or you're jealous. Now hit the fucking music.
'Derek has girls stay with him at his apartment in New York, and then he gets them a car to take them home the next day. Waiting in his car is a gift basket containing signed Jeter memorabilia, usually a signed baseball,' the friend dished." (courtesy of The Post)
This story is going around all over the sports blogosphere today, mainly with a negative spin to it, and I just don't get it. How is this supposed to be a bad thing? To me this is just Jeter playing chess in the booty-getting game once again while the rest of us regular guys are playing checkers.
Consider. Derek Jeter has established the all-time greatest list of celebrity conquests in the history of human existence. No everyday chick can bring to the table what some of his previous ladies can, and they know it. More importantly, he knows it. But he knows it's a big deal for them to get to meet, hang out with, and bang him. I mean, he is the guy who did this:
And he's a 5-time world champion, and he's a member of the 3,000 Hit Club, and he's still pretty damn hot. So what does he do? He treats them to a wonderful evening out on the town, takes 'em back to his place (discreetly, of course), shows 'em The Captain, takes care of business, and then sends them home with a little memento. It makes them feel more special and not just like another notch on Jeter's belt and also serves as proof for them when they tell their friends that they hooked up with Derek Jeter. It's genius.
This is the smoothest move I've seen since I decided to skip the tie at senior prom and rocked a badass button stud instead. It's just Jeter being Jeter and if you expected anything different you're either a moron or you're jealous. Now hit the fucking music.
Maximizing A-Rod In 2012 And Beyond
(The A-Horse swingeth)
After his fourth straight season of injury problems and declining production, this year's batch of injuries preventing him from even playing in 100 games, it appears that Alex Rodriguez is now moving towards the twilight of his career. Unfortunately for the Yankees, that transition is going to be a long one as he still has 6 years and $143 million left on the contract he signed after the 2007 season. Looking at the downward trend in his production and the upward trend in DL time over the past four seasons, we could be in for some ugliness before the sun finally sets on The Horse's baseball career. Knowing that, it makes sense to re-evaluate expectations for A-Rod moving forward and consider a more conservative approach to managing him as he declines in the interest of keeping him healthy. EJ started to touch on this point yesterday with his idea that A-Rod's health is what drives his production, and I want to take it a step further. Starting this year and moving forward, the Yankees need to focus on keeping Alex healthy and need to manage him in a way that allows him to stay healthy.
Since his 2007 MVP season, A-Rod has averaged just 124.5 Games Played and 538 PA per season over the past four thanks to his various injuries, and has seen his elite-level production fall as well. When he's healthy and on the field there's no doubt that The Horse can still produce at a high level, as evidenced by his April and June months in 2011 when he put up OPS values in the high .900s-low 1.000s and wOBA values in the low .420s. But once he starts getting banged up, that production suffers, both as a result of him modifying his approach and swing to compensate for his injuries and then due to the large chunks of time spent on the DL when the injuries become too much. The projections for 2012 all create a similar expectation for him to miss significant time next season and for his production to continue to suffer as a result:
- 2012 ZiPS: .264/.350/.474, 115 OPS+, 108 G, 456 PA
- 2012 CAIRO: .273/.363/.474, .351 wOBA, 106 G, 459 PA
- 2012 Bill James: .277/.373/.497, .376 wOBA, 134 G, 579 PA
Once again this year we are being treated to reports on A-Rod's new offseason workout program that will keep him healthy and productive. But at age 36 it would be unreasonable for us or the Yankees to expect a healthy full season from A-Rod in 2012 regardless of what that workout plan is, especially if he continues to be used the way he has over the past four seasons. Joe has finally started to make a conscious effort to give A-Rod more time at DH in order to keep him healthy, but that approach has usually come after A-Rod has already been hurt. This upcoming season should be the first where regular DH time and scheduled off days becomes a staple of his playing schedule. Implementing a strict plan that guarantees Rodriguez regular DH time and regular rest from Day 1 should help lessen the wear and tear his body accumulates through the 162-game season and keep him producing at a high level.
You Know You're A Diehard Yankee Fan When...
(My new night light)
A guy you work with out in Milwaukee, who doesn't even read the blog, steals a neon Yankee light from his buddy's bar to give to you because he remembers that you like the Yankees. It's old, it's dusty as hell, and there are probably spider eggs hatching out of it and hundreds of baby spiders crawling all over my apartment right now, but that's still fucking sweet.
I guess blowing off all my friends and social life during the playoffs to scream at the TV and jot down game notes is finally starting to pay off. And I thought there were no perks to being a blogger.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Yankees Try A Little Tenderness
The Yankees announced today that they plan to tender contracts to all 6 of their arbitration-eligible players: Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, Russell Martin, and Dave Robertson.
Wait, so the Yankees actually wanted to bring back their starting catcher, starting leftfielder, setup man, LOOGY, late-inning bullpen guy, and 1/5th of their current starting rotation, all guys who are under the age of 29, come at team-friendly prices, and produce at above-average, sometimes All Star-caliber levels? NO FUCKING WAY!! That's madness.
Wait, so the Yankees actually wanted to bring back their starting catcher, starting leftfielder, setup man, LOOGY, late-inning bullpen guy, and 1/5th of their current starting rotation, all guys who are under the age of 29, come at team-friendly prices, and produce at above-average, sometimes All Star-caliber levels? NO FUCKING WAY!! That's madness.
Do You Want Yu?
That's probably the question the top Yankee officials have been asking themselves since late last week. The reports of the Yankees' involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes had quieted down some during the Winter Meetings, and since the Meetings ended and the Darvish posting was officially announced late last week the talks have gotten even quieter. So with a little over 2 days until the posting period ends, the biggest question right now is whether or not the Yankees are going to make a serious offer for Darvish.
On the one hand they've got what essentially adds up to a rookie or 2nd-year pitcher age-wise (25) who already has plenty of experience against the top level of competition available to him and plenty of innings built up on his young arm. He's got an array of above-average pitches that he commands very well, a mastery of his delivery and mechanics well beyond what many current Major Leaguers possess, and is currently the top free agent option available to help the Yankees accomplish Cash's stated offseason goal of improving the starting rotation. On the other they've got the big commitment in terms of money (likely somewhere at or over $100 million between the posting fee and contract) and years that it will take to get this pitcher, the uncertainty of how the transition will go to the Majors, and a seemingly serious goal of the team to cut payroll to get under $189 million by 2014.
So what's more important? Curtailing the spending to start getting the payroll closer to that $189 million line and go with the current rotation (CC, Nova, A.J., Phil, Freddy, Noesi) or be aggressive on a pitcher with the potential to be a #1-#2-type? Right now the Yankees seem to be leaning towards passing on Darvish, and they've been very guarded in their comments on him over the last 4-5 days. We'll have to pay close attention to what's said over the next 2 to see if they tip their hand at all.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Winter Meetings Recap
The 2011 Winter Meetings have come and gone this week, with the Yankees taking an actively inactive approach. They were tied to almost every big name free agent available, especially the starting pitchers, were connected in some form to almost every stater reportedly to be on the trading block, and even added some potential depth in small deals . The Yankees had goals and areas for improvement, but they had already done the majority of their important work prior to these meetings. CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia agreed to new deals weeks ago and so adding to the starting rotation was going to be a much more careful process where the Yanks were only going to make a deal if it felt right. In the end, no major moves were made by Cash, but that doesn't mean the Winter Meetings were a loss for the Yankees.
For starters, they put the finishing touches on the current rotation by making the Freddy Garcia signing official. He gets a boost in pay as a result of 2011's success but not enough that it's still not a good, safe deal for the Yanks. They also won the posting for a Japanese player, but not the one we expected. Hiroyuki Nakajima, a star infielder from the Japanese League, could be a replacement for Eduardo Nunez as the backup IF next year and could also fill the Eric Chavez role of caddy to A-Rod. He isn't a sure thing to sign, but this has to signal an attempt by the Yanks to make Nunez more of a trade chip.
The Yanks were active below the Major League radar as well. They added a pair of pitchers through the Rule 5 draft, righty Brad Meyers and lefty Cesar Cabral. Neither should be expected to be major contributors in 2012 if they even make the team, but maybe one becomes a useful bullpen piece. They did have to release Greg Golson to make roster room before the draft, but that's an acceptable loss. There were reports that the Yankees signed former White Sox OF Dewayne Wise, so a replacement for Golson's role shouldn't be an issue. And both Manny Corpas and Adam Miller, 2 other interesting bullpen possibilities, have also been linked to the Yankees.
Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the meetings was the report that the Yankees had been contacting other clubs and offering A.J. Burnett plus some salary relief. Many passed this off as a small story and say A.J. will be back in the rotation while I argued that the report alone meant A.J. had to go and I still stand by that argument. A.J.'s value could be easily approximated by a combination Hector Noesi and the other guys in Triple-A next year and a better season from Phil Hughes. And freeing up some more money by eating any portion of his salary, even significantly more than the $8 million the story mentioned, allows them to be more active in their pursuits for an upgrade through a trade. You can't tell me that getting rid of A.J., paying him less than you would have had to to stay in the rotation, and adding John Danks is not a winning scenario.
The meetings are over but that doesn't mean the Yankees are done. The posting period for Yu Darvish will end this Wednesday and New York is expected to a major player. The trade talks with the White Sox and Athletics should continue and eventually they will come to their senses and drop their incredibly high demands. And the potential still exists for the Yankees to fill out the bench through a small deal and maybe rid themselves of A.J. through another small one. What happened at the meetings this week probably helped finalize Cash's plan to attack these paths. Now we get to sit back and watch him really go to work.
For starters, they put the finishing touches on the current rotation by making the Freddy Garcia signing official. He gets a boost in pay as a result of 2011's success but not enough that it's still not a good, safe deal for the Yanks. They also won the posting for a Japanese player, but not the one we expected. Hiroyuki Nakajima, a star infielder from the Japanese League, could be a replacement for Eduardo Nunez as the backup IF next year and could also fill the Eric Chavez role of caddy to A-Rod. He isn't a sure thing to sign, but this has to signal an attempt by the Yanks to make Nunez more of a trade chip.
The Yanks were active below the Major League radar as well. They added a pair of pitchers through the Rule 5 draft, righty Brad Meyers and lefty Cesar Cabral. Neither should be expected to be major contributors in 2012 if they even make the team, but maybe one becomes a useful bullpen piece. They did have to release Greg Golson to make roster room before the draft, but that's an acceptable loss. There were reports that the Yankees signed former White Sox OF Dewayne Wise, so a replacement for Golson's role shouldn't be an issue. And both Manny Corpas and Adam Miller, 2 other interesting bullpen possibilities, have also been linked to the Yankees.
Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the meetings was the report that the Yankees had been contacting other clubs and offering A.J. Burnett plus some salary relief. Many passed this off as a small story and say A.J. will be back in the rotation while I argued that the report alone meant A.J. had to go and I still stand by that argument. A.J.'s value could be easily approximated by a combination Hector Noesi and the other guys in Triple-A next year and a better season from Phil Hughes. And freeing up some more money by eating any portion of his salary, even significantly more than the $8 million the story mentioned, allows them to be more active in their pursuits for an upgrade through a trade. You can't tell me that getting rid of A.J., paying him less than you would have had to to stay in the rotation, and adding John Danks is not a winning scenario.
The meetings are over but that doesn't mean the Yankees are done. The posting period for Yu Darvish will end this Wednesday and New York is expected to a major player. The trade talks with the White Sox and Athletics should continue and eventually they will come to their senses and drop their incredibly high demands. And the potential still exists for the Yankees to fill out the bench through a small deal and maybe rid themselves of A.J. through another small one. What happened at the meetings this week probably helped finalize Cash's plan to attack these paths. Now we get to sit back and watch him really go to work.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Freddy Officially Back
The Yankees made it official today with a press release. The Garbage Man will be back in 2012, most likely as the de facto #5 starter but probably closer to the #3-#4 he was in 2011 if A.J. and Hughes don't rebound.
Freddy's working on a $4 million deal this year, a significant increase from his non-guaranteed deal last last season, with another $1.575 million available in incentives. To make room for Garcia on the 40-man, the Yanks DFA'd Colin Curtis.
As of right now, the 2012 rotation is set. We'll see if that changes over the next month or so.
Cash Weighs In On Albert
"He's a special player. I don't know him personally, but I see what he does with that bat. It's Montero-like."
It was a quiet week for the Bombers at the Winter Meetings, but that doesn't mean Cash is going out lying down. No sir. He's always playing the game, 25 hours a day, 8 days a week, and I love it. Somebody get a slow clap going.
(Quote via Bryan Hoch)
It was a quiet week for the Bombers at the Winter Meetings, but that doesn't mean Cash is going out lying down. No sir. He's always playing the game, 25 hours a day, 8 days a week, and I love it. Somebody get a slow clap going.
(Quote via Bryan Hoch)
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Rule 5 Wrap-Up
Flying well under the "Albert Pujols/C.J. Wilson Free Agent Mega Orgy" radar today was the Rule 5 draft. The Yankees had a few guys out there who could have been taken, but ended up not losing anybody through the draft while adding 2 pitchers. Here's the quick recap.
- To clear space before the draft, the Yanks released Greg Golson. He wasn't much with the stick despite being a tremendous athlete (copyright: Jay Bilas) and solid defensive player. Just lessens the back end depth of the "4th OFer" pool.
- Yankees selected RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals. Dude throws 4 pitches and has decent MiL peripherals, but injuries have derailed his progress. He'll be looked at as a candidate to fill the long man role out of the bullpen.
- Yanks also added a LHP through a trade with the Royals, who selected Cesar Cabral from the Fraud Sawx and then shipped him to New York for cash. Cabral's stuff and R/L splits don't make him an ideal 2nd lefty option, but his high K rate could make him a diamond in the rough.
It's likely that neither Meyers nor Cabral will stick with the Yankees, but it's always good to give yourself cheap options. I can't imagine they were expecting much from the Cory Wade trade last year and look how that turned out.
- To clear space before the draft, the Yanks released Greg Golson. He wasn't much with the stick despite being a tremendous athlete (copyright: Jay Bilas) and solid defensive player. Just lessens the back end depth of the "4th OFer" pool.
- Yankees selected RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals. Dude throws 4 pitches and has decent MiL peripherals, but injuries have derailed his progress. He'll be looked at as a candidate to fill the long man role out of the bullpen.
- Yanks also added a LHP through a trade with the Royals, who selected Cesar Cabral from the Fraud Sawx and then shipped him to New York for cash. Cabral's stuff and R/L splits don't make him an ideal 2nd lefty option, but his high K rate could make him a diamond in the rough.
It's likely that neither Meyers nor Cabral will stick with the Yankees, but it's always good to give yourself cheap options. I can't imagine they were expecting much from the Cory Wade trade last year and look how that turned out.
The Stove Is Finally Heating Up
It isn't Yankee-related, but big news from the Winter Meeting is breaking this morning as both Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson were signed by the Angels.
ESPN is reporting that Pujols' deal is for 10 years/$250-260 million and includes a full no-trade clause, and Wilson's is for 5 years/$75 mil, less than what he was asking for and less than most people thought he'd get. Hometown discount, anybody?
The Yanks didn't seem to be major players in the talks with either of these guys, but it will be interesting to see how, if at all, these 2 coming off the market influences their plans moving forward. With Buehrle coming off the market yesterday and now Wilson today, FA starter options are disappearing fast.
ESPN is reporting that Pujols' deal is for 10 years/$250-260 million and includes a full no-trade clause, and Wilson's is for 5 years/$75 mil, less than what he was asking for and less than most people thought he'd get. Hometown discount, anybody?
The Yanks didn't seem to be major players in the talks with either of these guys, but it will be interesting to see how, if at all, these 2 coming off the market influences their plans moving forward. With Buehrle coming off the market yesterday and now Wilson today, FA starter options are disappearing fast.
The Nail In A.J.'s Coffin
(Now that the word is out that the Yanks are trying to shop him, we should expect to see a lot more of Bad A.J. in 2012)
There's no point in trying to sugarcoat it. A.J. Burnett's Yankee career has been an absolute disaster. It's been dismal. A.J. has become the latest in the long line of failed Yankee high-profile free agent pitching signings and made himself the newest poster boy for the "He Can't Hack It in New York" argument that people love to use when guys fail in pinstripes. And with the recent NY Post report that the Yankees are actively shopping A.J. this week at the Winter Meetings and are willing to eat some of his remaining salary to sweeten the deal, the Yankees are now in a position where they basically HAVE to trade A.J.
Let's review his time as a Yankee quickly. In 2009, A.J. was mediocre in his first full season in The Bronx. He was more bad than good, and did not show the consistent results and dominance he had shown the previous year. In the end, though, A.J. was a part of a World Series-winning staff and even contributed to that title with a solid Game 2 outing in the World Series. In 2010, A.J. nose dived off the productivity ladder, putting up one of the all-time worst individual pitching seasons in Yankee history and almost being left off the postseason roster . And this past season, the downward spiral continued as A.J. put up comparably bad numbers to 2010, lost his spot in the rotation, and once again found himself the centerpiece of the Yankee playoff rotation as they tried to figure out a way where they did not have to use him.
More maddening than the poor performance, at least for me, has been all the baggage and BS that's come with the last three years of A.J. The bouts of inexplicable inconsistency, the failure against the Fraud Sawx, the constantly-changing mechanics, the personal catchers, the inability to be objective about his own performance, the different haircuts, the black eye, the arguing with his manager on the mound and cursing him out after being taken out a game in which he was pitching poorly, the 6-man rotation, and the constant efforts by everybody in the organization (teammates, Joe, Cash, Levine) to take turns playing CYA for him along the way.
And now after all of this, the Yankees are out at the Winter Meetings trying to do the baseball equivalent of giving A.J. away, and that's supposed to help him pitch better in 2012? Not on your life. This story, which appears to be true, represents the Yankees finally admitting that they don't have confidence in A.J. and don't want him anymore. And when they've spent the past 3 seasons trying to convince the media, the fans, A.J., and probably even themselves that they did and it hasn't gotten them anything from A.J., why would throwing up their hands and saying, "We've had enough of this clown. Somebody PLEASE take him!" work any better? The guy couldn't pitch worth a damn when he had support from the team. He'll barely be able to function on the mound now knowing that he doesn't, and the team can no longer step up and try to cover for him after this move. This has to be the end of A.J.'s Yankee career.
By outing themselves for their lack of support, the Yankees have effectively killed any chances they had of getting something positive from A.J. over the next 2 years. After making these offers, there's no way the Yankees can bring him back and expect anything from him. He's a wasted roster spot. And the $33 million they still owe him has now gone from being an opportunity cost to essentially a sunk cost for the Yankees. The majority of the contract is a sunk cost already, so if it's about money you're really just putting a lipstick on a pig at this point. This isn't the NFL where they can cut him and not have to pay him. One way or another, A.J. is getting his $33 million that's still owed to him and the Yankees are going to at least pay some of it. With the contract that Mark Buehrle signed today with Miami, all of the guys the Yankees could target are going to want more than the Yankees are going to be willing to offer. By admitting A.J. was a mistake and moving him, for anything, the Yankees will pass some of the cost off to somebody else, and give themselves a bit more payroll flexibility to use in the trade market that they seem more involved in anyway.
They'd still be left with CC, Nova, Freddy, a Phil Hughes that they're expecting a big rebound from, and a Hector Noesi that's been turning heads in the DR. Put that together with the bodies in Triple-A and some potential top-of-the-rotation trade targets, and it's not like the Yankees would be up the creek without A.J. Sure they're going to end up losers in whatever trade they make for him, assuming any trade gets made. But when the message the Yankees are sending as an organization right now are that they've given up on A.J., then they've already lost. And in this case, it'd be better for both sides to just cut the losses and move on.
Yanks Win Posting For Japanese SS
He isn't Yu Darvish, who could be posted today, but the Yankees did win the posting for Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima yesterday for $2 million. Not a major move by the Bombers, but one that should help bolster the Yankees IF depth if they can negotiate a deal with Nakajima by January 6.
The most important thing about this move may be what other moves it signals the Yankees are interested in making. Allow me a minute to play hypothetical trade carousel. If they sign Nakajima, the Yankees essentially cover second base, third base, and short, filling both the Eduardo Nunez and Eric Chavez roles from last season. This frees them up to use Nunez as a trade chip and they include him in offers to bring in a John Danks or Gio Gonzalez while at the same time coming to an agreement with another team for how much of A.J.'s contract they will eat and moving A.J. for a bag of balls. That would leave the Yankees with their backup infield covered, some more flexibility to fill the other bench spots, and the upgrade for the rotation that they were looking for through both the addition of solid #2 pitcher and the subtraction of their worst pitcher.
I don't see any way any Yankee fan couldn't be happy with that playing out, but first things first, the Yanks have to sign Nakajima. If they don't, they just don't pay the posting fee and they're right back where they were. But if they do, I expect things to start happening and players to start moving quickly afterwards. Even if they don't make any moves after, adding Nakajima is still a smart, cost-effective move to help fill the bench for 2012. There's no really downside to this move by the Yankees.
The most important thing about this move may be what other moves it signals the Yankees are interested in making. Allow me a minute to play hypothetical trade carousel. If they sign Nakajima, the Yankees essentially cover second base, third base, and short, filling both the Eduardo Nunez and Eric Chavez roles from last season. This frees them up to use Nunez as a trade chip and they include him in offers to bring in a John Danks or Gio Gonzalez while at the same time coming to an agreement with another team for how much of A.J.'s contract they will eat and moving A.J. for a bag of balls. That would leave the Yankees with their backup infield covered, some more flexibility to fill the other bench spots, and the upgrade for the rotation that they were looking for through both the addition of solid #2 pitcher and the subtraction of their worst pitcher.
I don't see any way any Yankee fan couldn't be happy with that playing out, but first things first, the Yanks have to sign Nakajima. If they don't, they just don't pay the posting fee and they're right back where they were. But if they do, I expect things to start happening and players to start moving quickly afterwards. Even if they don't make any moves after, adding Nakajima is still a smart, cost-effective move to help fill the bench for 2012. There's no really downside to this move by the Yankees.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Ken Williams Smokes Two Joints In The Morning...
... And Billy Beane smokes two joints at night. That's really the only logical explanation I can come up with to explain the completely batshit insane trade requests these guys are making. I'll be honest, I thought Williams' "Jesus and ManBan for John Danks" idea was cute. I really did. I mean, I'm sure Williams is still salty over Cash giving him the business on the Swisher trade. It's understandable. But this batch of nonsense from Billy is just awe-inspiringly stupid. Jesus, ManBan or Betances, and Mason Williams. I understand wanting to take a big reach on your first go round to see if the Yankees are serious, but THAT big a reach?
Come on now, guys. Cut the malarkey. And fire another one up. My guess is, once you start feeling it and Cash calls back talking about throwing in some Beef Baja Chalupas and Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers with D.J. Mitchell, you'll be singing a different tune.
P.S.- 4 years/$58 mil for Mark Buehrle? Really? Really???
Come on now, guys. Cut the malarkey. And fire another one up. My guess is, once you start feeling it and Cash calls back talking about throwing in some Beef Baja Chalupas and Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers with D.J. Mitchell, you'll be singing a different tune.
P.S.- 4 years/$58 mil for Mark Buehrle? Really? Really???
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