Sunday, March 25, 2012

Site News: AB4AR 2012 Season Preview & A Personal Message

You may have noticed the series of "2012 Storylines" posts that ran this past week on the site.  If you missed any, here's your chance for a quick refresh.

Monday- Rotation (Over)Depth
Tuesday- Elder Statesmen of the Lineup
Thursday- Playing For a Job
Friday- The Season of Mo

They marked the unofficial start of the 2012 AB4AR Season Preview series.  Tomorrow will mark the official start of the 2-week AB4AR season preview, beginning with the "What We Know & What We Don't Know" series this week and continuing the following week with the official "2012 Season Preview" series.  I know I'm a little behind a lot of the other sites with my season preview work, but to be honest I don't see the value in running season preview posts a full 3-4 weeks before the actual start of the season.  There's just too much that can happen in that time that can render points covered in a season preview post completely meaningless, so I'm doing what I did last year and waiting for the last 2 weeks before the start of the season to roll with my previews and wrap them up on Yankees Opening Day.

As for the site itself, you might have noticed a few small changes recently.  I've started labeling the posts to make them easier to search and create a little more of a professional feel to them.  I've also started linking to posts less frequently on the AB4AR Facebook Page and instead have been using that as an outlet to keep everybody updated on the rest of the daily Yankee news that I don't devote individual posts to.  Despite the urgings of some of my fellow Yankee bloggers, I don't see myself creating a Twitter account for the site any time soon, and this new method seems to be the easiest way for me to be able to cover everything within the context of the rest of my life.  So if you just need to know what's going on in Yankeeland, then hit the Facebook page, and then come to the site and read the new stuff when you've got the time to really read it.

When I stared this blog in August of 2009, I wasn't really thinking about what I wanted it to be.  I knew I loved the Yankees and I knew I loved to write and it seemed like a natural way to bring those 2 things together.  Since then I think the site has really grown, and I've made a much more conscious effort to make AB4AR more than just the random rantings of a Yankee fan who curses a lot.  I've tried to get more involved with the analytical side of the game, and I know I've made strides in my statistical knowledge and analysis skills.  But I've also tried to never lose the theme of the site, that being that this is all coming from the heart of a true Yankee fan and a fan's perspective.

At the end of the day, that's what I am and that's what I want this site to be about.  A Yankee fan trying to talk intelligently about the Yankees, nothing more and nothing less.  You'll notice that the design of the site is basic and hardly ever changes, and you'll notice that there are no ads anywhere here, and that's because that's the way I want it to be.  I'm not looking to make money off of this, I'm not looking to expand, and I'm not looking to link up with some other blogging network.  I do this because I love it.  I'm just one man who loves the Yankees working to bring you the best independent Yankee blog he can, and as a one-man operation I happen to think I've got one of the best damn blogs out there.  There is no staff of writers here, no team, no support.  Just me.  Just me trying to churn out as much quality writing as I can each and every day.

I hope everybody who visits AB4AR enjoys the site and enjoys what I write because I can honestly tell you that I greatly enjoy writing for you.  Even if you don't enjoy a post or any posts and think nothing I say makes sense, I sincerely hope you come back and read more.  But if you are a fan of AB4AR, I would ask you to please help drive the site.  Mention it to your friends who are Yankee fans, comment on posts, check the Facebook Page, and while you're there please, for the love of Tim Tebow, click the "Like" button.  I truly appreciate each and every comment or "Like" I get.  Knowing there are people out there reading and thinking and commenting on my writing is what makes this that much more fun, and it inspires me to work harder and put more time and effort into writing more.

I'm really looking forward to this season and I hope everybody else out there is too.  And I hope that when you make your rounds through the Yankosphere you make the choice to stop at AB4AR and check out what I have to say.

** Don't forget, the 2-week Season Preview series kicks off tomorrow. **

Saturday, March 24, 2012

The Effects Of The Joba Ankle Injury

(Courtesy of MCT/Christopher Pasatieri)

With the good news continuing to come out on Joba's dislocated ankle, it looks like the worst-case scenarios that were in play earlier yesterday are no longer a concern.  He's going to be released from the hospital tomorrow and there is still mention of him possibly getting back on a mound in July to start/continue his rehab.  That being said, factoring in the lost time in his TJS rehab that will occur because of this injury and the delicate nature in which his ankle rehab will have to take place because of it being his push-off leg, I think it's safe to say that we won't see Joba in any kind of game action in 2012.  With that being the case, here are the effects that Joba's absence will have this season and beyond.

Joba Update: Some Good News

After words like "career-threatening" and "life-threatening" were thrown around yesterday when talking about Joba's ankle injury, this bit of news from Sweeny Murti is a relief today:

"Joba could be released from hospital today. He told Cashman that dr said he could step on a mound by July. But MRI results not back yet."

Using my vast amount of medical knowledge that I accumulated as a business major at UConn, I imagine the results of the MRI and other tests from yesterday will have to be known to confirm whether or not the possibility of Joba returning to the mound in July is real.  But I also imagine that his doctor wouldn't say things like that to Joba to give him false hope, so the early returns on the surgery and tests must be positive.  Ankle injuries are serious in the baseball world, just ask David Adams and Ravel Santana, and Joba's certainly sounded like it was far more severe than the injuries those two suffered.  If there's any chance he can make it back on a mound this year, that's a good thing.

More thoughts on Joba later today.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 3/23

Andy's return last week, Joba's potential demise this week.  I'm almost scared to think of what could happen next Friday.  On Joba, I've flip-flopped between loving him and hating him multiple times since he became a Yankee in 2007, and had gotten back closer to the positive side in the last year.  As much as I want to jump down his throat for being stupid and putting himself at risk of injury, I really can't knowing that it happened spending time with his kid.  As a single man with no children and no plans to have any, I don't feel it's my place to criticize someone for doing something with his son who he obviously loves.  Just an incredibly unfortunate break for Joba and hopefully he is able to make a full recovery.  On that somber note, onto the links.

- On Monday, Rebecca Glass of Pinstriped Bible touched on the impact Andy Pettitte's presence will have on guys like Adam Warren, David Phelps, their chance to make the show this year, and what the Yankees should do with them.

- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog wondered how Freddy Garcia fits into the Yankees' plans now that Pettitte is in the fold and suggested a very reasonable win-win trade scenario involving Garcia.

- On Tuesday, friend of the blog Rasheeda Cooper of Bomber Boulevard explained what each non-CC/Kuroda member of the rotation must do to follow Joe's "You have to produce" edict and not lose their rotation spot to Andy.

- On Wednesday, Trevor Wolff of Sliding Into Home came out with the most straightforward anti-Andy's return post I've seen yet.  As someone who feels similar and also doesn't want to see Andy handed a rotation spot on a silver platter, I applaud his candor.  Tip of the cap to you, Trevor.

- Matthew B of Yankees Fans Unite played the Over/Under game with Pineda and Nova for 2012.  This has been my favorite O/U post that YFU has done to date because what these 2 do this season will likely be the difference between the Yankee rotation being good or being great.

- Larry Koestler of RAB used the new and improved Brooks' PITCHf/x tool to break down Andy's last few seasons and project what he can do in 2012.

- On Thursday, Mike Ashmore of Thunder Thoughts examined the early season MiL home schedules to try to figure out when and where Andy will be pitching as part of his April ST schedule.

Also on Thursday, the other Matt from YFU, Matt S., had a prospect profile on lefty pitcher Nik Turley, which featured my sleeper write-up on Turley from TYA Prospect Week.  Thanks for the shout out, Matt.

- New addition to the Bronx Baseball Daily team Curtis Clark thinks Teix is due for a big comeback season in 2012, and goes so far as to throw the MVP award into the discussion.

- On Friday, Casey of Bleeding Yankee Blue asked what everybody thought the starting rotation should be this season.  His choices- CC, Kuroda, Pettitte, Pineda, Nova.

- Mark Feinsand of the Daily News has some sour grapes quotes from Bobby V on last night's game ending in a 4-4 tie.  I will say that it would have been a perfect opportunity for Joe to use Pat Venditte to keep the game going, but nobody told Bobby V to lay down a suicide squeeze play in a ST game.

- Tamar Chalker of IIATMS has been rolling through season previews for each Yankee MiL affiliate this week, and he saved the best for last with the preview for Low-A Charleston.  If everybody plays up to their potential, that's practically a Low-A All Star team.

- From the TYA team, on Thursday, Eric Schultz profiled Dominican prospect Rafael DePaula, who finally got his US visa yesterday and can now begin his Yankee career.  Very little is known about DePaula but he's a big, 21-year-old righty who can throw high-90s.

- Matt Imbrogno looked at Pineda's 2011 monthly fastball velocity breakdowns to try and stem the ever-growing concern about where Pineda is sitting on the gun this spring.  The supposed fall-off from 2011, something that may be contributing to the negative hype this spring, was a bit overblown.

I had a song picked out for today, but it only seems right to play something for Joba so I'll call an audible and go with his entrance music.  Here's hoping this injury doesn't set back him for too long and we get to see him come jogging out to this again.  Get well, bud.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

2012 Storylines: The Season Of Mo

(No caption necessary.  Courtesy of EPA)

Since the mid-90s, when the last Yankee dynasty rose to power in the American League, there has been one constant in the Yankee roster that perfectly captures and represents the "Yankee Way."  Even more than Derek Jeter, the official captain and face of the franchise, this one man is the symbol of what it means to be a Yankee.  I'm talking, of course, about the great Mariano Rivera, the single greatest athlete at doing one particular thing in the history of professional sports.  As Mo has continued to stay on the top of the mountain at an age when most guys are getting jobs as ESPN analysts, the joke over the last couple seasons has been that he's ageless, not human, and that he could pitch forever, but all indications point to 2012 being Mo's final season as an active player and that is one storyline that nobody should forget about this season.

BREAKING NEWS: Joba Suffers MAJOR Ankle Injury

Details of the story are still coming in, but according to Jack Curry, Joba Chamberlain suffered a serious ankle injury yesterday and had surgery last night.  He's currently in the hospital recovering and is expected to miss significant time.

The injury was an "open dislocation" of his right ankle, which is basically the same thing as a compound fracture where there is bone breaking through skin.  He suffered the injury playing with his son at a children's play center yesterday.  There is no timetable for his return, but it doesn't sound like we're going to see Joba at all in 2012 and the injury could be career-threatening.  Cash said, “We’re worried significantly about him right now for him as an individual,” when asked to comment.

More details to come as they become available... 

** UPDATE- 10:21 AM- Multiple tweets coming in from the Yankee beat reporters describe Cash as being very somber and visibly shaken when delivering the news on Joba.  Definitely not a good sign. **

** UPDATE- 11:18 AM- Via Kieran Darcy of ESPN, the injury will prevent Joba from putting any weight on his right leg for 4-6 weeks, after which a lengthy rehab will have to take place.  He's scheduled for an MRI and CT scan today to review the damage and results of last night's surgery.

This is just my speculation, but it doesn't sound like Joba will play at all in 2012.  When asked if the injury was career-threatening, Cash said, "I couldn't say, I just couldn't say. I'd like to say no. My heart and my gut tells me no, that's not the case."

** UPDATE- 3:43PM- Via Anthony McCarron of the Daily News: "Joba Chamberlain lost so much blood Thursday when he hurt his ankle while playing with his son that there initially was concern for his life, a Yankees' source said."

Jesus Christ, that is horrible.  Still no more news on the results of the tests today.  Given the nature of the injury, I would imagine some more surgeries may be necessary.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Yanks-Sawx "First Televised Game I Get To Watch This Year" Live Blog

(F*ck you, Saltalamacchia.  Courtesy of The AP) 

It's only Spring Training, there are only three regulars in the Yankee lineup (Gardner, C-Grand, Ibanez), and Adam Warren is the starting pitcher for the Yanks, so obviously this game means less than nothing.  But it's being televised on ESPN, which means I have the ability to finally watch some live Yankee baseball this year, and that means it's the perfect opportunity for the first official AB4AR live blog of the season!

Coverage starts at 7PM EST/6PM Central, with first pitch some time right after that.  Come hang out, check in, and feel free to add a comment or two.  I'm more than capable of entertaining myself with bad jokes and commentary on how bad Ibanez's swing looks, but it's always more fun with more people.  If nothing else, we can laugh at what I'm sure will be ridiculously one-sided, Bobby V ball-licking commentary from the announcers together.

Yankee Starting Lineup-

1) Brett Gardner- LF
2) Curtis Granderson- CF
3) Andruw Jones- RF
4) Eric Chavez-3B
5) Raul Ibanez- DH
6) Brandon Laird- 1B
7) Jose Gil- C
8) Ramiro Pena- 2B
9) Doug Bernier- SS

SP) Adam Warren- RHP

Fraud Sawx Starting Lineup-

Who gives a damn?

2012 Storylines: Playing For A Job

(Will there be a new face doing the three-way back bump after this year?  Courtesy of The AP)

Roster turnover is a part of any baseball season.  Over the course of 162 games, there are going to be a multitude of injuries, signings, trades, promotions, and demotions that will affect the breakdown of the 25 men on the active roster, and the 25-man on Opening Day will assuredly look different than the one on the last day of the regular season.  The Yankees come into the 2012 season with the majority of what will be the Opening Day roster intact, with a spot or two still up for grabs.  Thanks to their big budget, a well-stocked farm system, and some shrewd MiL contract deals, they are well positioned to handle any kind of change to the roster as the season progresses.

But there is another factor that will affect roster turnover this year, a factor that usually isn't part of the Yankee equation.  That factor, of course, is the goal of getting the payroll under $189 million by 2014.  There are players on the team right now who likely won't be wearing pinstripes by then as part of cutting costs and players whose involvement in future plans will be determined by how they perform over the next couple years.  The payroll goal will become more of a behind-the-scenes storyline once the regular season starts, but it will always be there and could have influence over roster decisions during the season.  Between that and the regular ebb and flow of roster changes, there are multiple groups of players who will have more to play for this season than just winning a championship.

Phil Hughes Looking Good

(Courtesy of The AP)

Don't look now, but Phil Hughes- the man involved in his 3rd straight rotation competition, the man coming off the worst year of his professional career, the man who's being talked about as the leading candidate to either be sent to the bullpen, sent to the minors, or traded if he doesn't pitch well this year- has been the best starting pitcher in Yankee camp.

I know technically he's only made two starts, but in the other two outings where he backed up CC he was working as a starter and that's good enough for me. After yesterday's 5-inning performance he has now thrown the most innings out of all the starting rotation contenders (with a game in hand on CC and Kuroda) with 13.1, and he has been the most consistent pitcher of the group. He's the only one with a WHIP below 1.00, he's attacking hitters and throwing a lot of strikes, and if it wasn't for a poorly placed cutter to Matt Joyce yesterday he would only have 1 ER allowed on his ledger.

More important than that, though, is the fact that his stuff is back. Hughes' velocity on his fastball has been sitting 91-93 since the first time he took the mound, with a 94 here and there, which is right where he needs to live to be effective. His curveball has also looked much sharper than it did last year, and he's getting bad swings on it. And his changeup, a pitch that we've been waiting to see him use consistently for a couple years now, has evolved into a pitch that Hughes is confident in and willing to throw. I specifically remember him getting Evan Longoria to fly out weakly on a change yesterday as well as Joyce striking out swinging on it in the at-bat after his HR. He's working the cutter as well, but if Hughes can mix fastball-curveball-changeup consistently he can be very good.

This is the Phil Hughes we were expecting to see last year. He still has a lot to prove and it won't be fair to say he's "back" until he does it in the regular season, but the way he looks and the way he's pitching this spring certainly has to inspire confidence that he's on the right track. Freddy's hand injury probably sealed the deal for him, but even if he didn't get hurt it should be a no-brainer that Hughes gets a spot in the rotation to open the season.

The Importance Of Spring Training

No one needs to be reminded of how unimportant Spring Training stats are (but if you did, there's another reminder). But what about the overall format of Spring Training itself? It's structured such that players are eased into full-scale baseball activities, but how much do they really need that structure? Every player is different and needs to do different things to get themselves into full game shape. Some guys need lots of time in the cage and on the field to get right and some like Mo seem to be able to roll out of bed and be at the top of their game. There are some Yankee regulars that have missed significant amounts of time with injuries this spring, and thus find themselves well behind the typical Spring Training schedule. None are expected to miss Opening Day, but when you consider the sport being played it's worth asking how effective they can be without a full spring routine under their belt.

Baseball isn't a sport that requires tremendous amounts of continuous physical exertion, at least not compared to sports like hockey and football, but it does require an incredible amount of skill to be successful. That skill is rooted in things like mechanics, timing, balance, body control, reaction time, and hand-eye coordination, all things that aren't as simple as running or jumping and thus require more practice time and more repetition. It makes sense to me that missing significant portions of that practice time in Spring Training would have an adverse reaction on a player's preparedness for the regular season. I'm sure Dave Robertson, Derek Jeter, and Nick Swisher all had their own individual ways of working out and training this past offseason to prepare themselves for 2012, and I'm sure they all had certain plans and things they wanted to accomplish in the structure of the Spring Training schedule to continue that preparation. Falling out of that schedule, scrapping those plans, and not being able to work on the things they planned to must have a negative impact on their game, no?

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Let's Talk About Nick Swisher's Groins

It's not typically a topic of discussion I like to approach when it comes to baseball players, but Swish has now had two separate issues with his left and right groins over the past week or so and he's looking at missing another week after the tweak that caused him to leave last night's game early.

Swish was amongst the "best shape of their lives" group coming into camp, and with good reason seeing as how he's entering a contract year as a player in his 30s.  The prevailing thought amongst he and the Yankee trainers is that he might have hit the weight room a little too hard and his leg muscles are tight (like a toiger).  It doesn't sound like a huge deal right now, just rest and probably some more stretching, but I'm curious to see how the missed game time will affect Swish once the season starts since he didn't exactly get off to a fast start last year (.293 wOBA in April).  Definitely something to keep an eye on.

P.S.- I wonder if Joanna is jealous of all the attention Swish's groins are going to receive over the next week or so.

No Reason To Panic On Pineda (Still)

Michael Pineda made his 4th start of the spring last night, and I'm sure people are going to be up in arms about this one too.  He gave up 2 hits and 2 runs in the 1st inning thanks to a HR by Andrew McCutchen and didn't seem to be able to locate very well.  His fastball velocity was a little higher than it has been, sitting mostly 92-93 with a few 94s sprinkled in, but still not at the upper-90s level that will quiet the panic alarm being sounded.

What the people on the "Pineda's a bust" bandwagon will fail to acknowledge is that he made an adjustment after the first inning when Larry Rothschild told him he was opening his lead shoulder and proceeded to strike out 5 batters over his last 2 innings of work, including the side in the 2nd.  He didn't go as deep into the game as Joe wanted to see, but he showed the ability to make in-game mechanical adjustments successfully, threw 72 pitches, finished strong, and said he felt good after the game.  As a young pitcher still learning the finer points of his craft, how much more can you reasonably ask for?

Here's some food for thought.  One year ago today, when Pineda was turning heads in Mariners' camp, he had made 4 starts in Spring Training.  In those 4 starts he totaled 11 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, and 8 K.  In Yankee camp this spring Pineda has 11.1 IP and he's allowed 5 ER, 5 BB, and 12 K.  He has gotten hit a little bit (12 H allowed) but remember, last year he was coming out of nowhere and nobody knew anything about him; he was a big hulking kid throwing fireballs by everybody.  Now he's been around for a year, teams are more familiar with him, there's a book on him, and he's in camp focusing on learning a new pitch to make it usable and effective for the regular season.  He's not out there "throwing gas;" he's pitching.  He's a pitcher.  And the results he's generated in his 4 outings are almost identical to what he did last year.

The moral of this story is, stop freaking out about Pineda's velocity.  He's a young, unpolished pitcher getting a real deep coat of polish this spring from one of the best pitching coaches in the business.  He's still a big hoss, he's still a power pitcher, and he's still damn good.  It's March 21st and Pineda is throwing low-to-mid 90s with his fastball and doing just fine.  There's no reason to think that when the season officially starts he won't be able to dial it up when he needs to.  If it's April 21st, and he's still throwing low-90s, then come back and talk to me.  Until then, just be calm, be patient, and be happy that you aren't watching He Who Shall Not Be Named throw errant curveballs to the backstop.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Kim Jones' Replacement Has Been Found

As you may remember, I was a bit distraught when it was announced in January that Kim Jones would not be returning as the clubhouse reporter for the YES Network this season.  Her replacement was announced to say, and dare I say I think she will be more than enough to help me get over the loss of my precious Kimmy.  Say, "HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!" to Meredith Marakovits.


She's worked for SNY and with the Philadelphia 76ers and Phillies, so to get to graduate from the scuzz heap that is the NL East to the big leagues in Yankeeland is obviously a huge upgrade for her.  I don't know how I'm going to feel about her taking a pie after a walk-off win this year, if the Yankees are dumb enough to try to keep that tradition going, but if she can give a good interview I think she and I will get along just fine.  She's a peach, Jerry.  A peach.

2012 Storylines: Elder Statesmen Of The Lineup

("Hey, guy.  My calf hurts."  Courtesy of The AP)

When you're operating with the biggest payroll in baseball, your team should be potent offensively.  The Yankees are just that and have been for some time now.  They're coming off a 2011 season that saw them rank 1st in total team HR, 2nd in runs scored, 3rd in wOBA, and tied for 2nd in wRC+, and with almost the entire gang who collectively racked up those numbers back for 2012 they're looking at more of the same.  In looking at the projected starting lineup, it's expected that the group of Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, and Brett Gardner will produce in a fashion similar to their 2011 output.  It's not a coincidence that those gentlemen are the younger members of the lineup, still in their physical primes.  The wild cards when predicting just how good the Yankee offense will be in 2012 are the older group of everyday players, specifically the infield trio of Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez.  They're all coming off of interesting 2011 seasons to say the least, and so far have had mixed results in ST, making it difficult to pinpoint how effective they'll be once the regular season grind starts.

Jeter and A-Rod, at 37 and 36 respectively, are the resident "old guys" of the Yankees lineup and clearly the ones most affected by age-related decline.  Jeter looked damn near dead in the water after the 2nd half of 2010 and the first half of 2011, but rebounded after his DL stint to hit .331/.384/.447 from July 4 on.  I've already discussed what Jeter needs to do this season to try to keep the momentum from his 2011 2nd half going, but results have been mixed in ST as he's been hitting a lot of balls on the ground and has been out for almost a week with a calf strain.  The Horse, on the other hoof, has looked fantastic this spring, both physically and from a baseball perspective.  He's got 7 hits in 24 AB, 4 of them for extra bases, and hasn't reported any physical issues with the knee or hip while pushing himself hard on the field and on the basepaths.  130-140 games of a healthy A-Rod will be a huge boost to the Yankees, especially if he can produce the way we know he's capable of.

Teix isn't quite as long in the tooth as his left side counterparts, and is still technically in his prime at 32, but he's coming off a down year that's not attributable to age-related decline or injury, his third straight year of offensive decline since becoming a Yankee.  With five more years left on his deal, the Yankees need him to right the ship and correct his issues from the left side of the plate.  Teix reportedly worked on his left-handed hitting in the offseason, shed some weight, and has been saying and doing all the right things in camp (including not trying to bunt against the shift).  He's also had mixed results at the plate, with 5 hits in 21 AB and little to no power, but he's drawn 5 walks and gone the other way a couple times.  The lack of power can likely be chalked up to him making a conscious effort to focus on his approach from the left side more than driving the ball, so there's really no cause for concern yet.

They aren't infielders, but the tag team tandem of Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones are expected to carry the bulk of the load from the DH spot in the lineup this year, and at 39 and 34 respectively they aren't young and haven't exactly been filling anybody with confidence with their early spring performances.  They're currently a combined 6-55 this spring with only 1 XBH and 13 K.  Ibanez has been particularly ugly to watch as neither his timing nor his swing look very good and he offers very little value defensively if forced into outfield duty.  Jones had offseason knee surgery and also got into better shape before camp to attempt to be a bigger contributor in 2012, but both need to produce more than they have so far once the games start to count or the Yankees may be fishing for a new DH at the trade deadline.

If none of these guys improve upon their 2011 offensive output the Yankees will still be a very good offensive team.  But they can be a force with a pair of bounce-back seasons from A-Rod and Teix in the middle of the lineup, and Jeter maintaining a production level above replacement level at the top of the order would be gravy.  If, however, the downward trend continues for this group, things could start to get dicey for the Yankees as they move to the latter parts of the season and further into the future.  Jeter, The Horse, and Teix are all under contract for the next handful of seasons at a hefty price and will become even bigger anchors to the payroll and lineup if they don't produce, and Ibanez and Jones will have people pining for The Jesus if they continue to scuffle.

Andy Pettitte And The Balance Between Nostalgia And Necessity

(Hopefully Andy-Wan Kenobi's presence doesn't disrupt the development of the young Padawans)

Let me preface this post by saying that this is not meant to be me taking a shot at Andy Pettitte. Andy is one of my favorite Yankees of all time and I'm happy that he's coming back for another go. I was bummed when he decided to hang it up after the 2010 season, especially when it was clear that he could still get the job done. If you're a believer in the "you can never have too much pitching" theory (and you'd be an idiot not to be), you have to be a fan of this move. Any time you can bring in the all-time leader in multiple postseason statistical categories who also happens to have won five championships as a member of your team as your de facto 7th starter, that's a good move. What bothers me about the situation, though, and has from the time I first heard the breaking news on Friday afternoon to right now, are the implications that this has been in the works for a while and that Pettitte deserves to be shoehorned into the rotation at some point simply because he's Andy Pettitte.

As more of the backstory leading up to the signing has come out, it has become clear that this wasn't so much Andy suddenly getting the urge to pitch again as it was a mutual back-and-forth discussion between him and Cash about the possibility of him coming back that goes back to last December. During last Friday's press conference, Cash stated that he offered Andy a $10-12 million deal as a way to force his decision and implied that had Andy accepted the offer, the Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda moves might not have happened. At the time, the Yankee rotation was CC, Nova, a recently re-signed Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes, and He Who Shall Not Be Named. Pettitte likely would have been an upgrade over at least one of those options, but the idea that the Yankees were willing to throw 12 mil at him when he had been retired for a year and hadn't really been working out as a pitcher rather than pursue guys like Pineda and Kuroda is a little frightening. If you would have asked me back in December whether I would rather have a 39-year-old Andy Pettitte coming off a year away from the game for $12 million or Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda for less than that, I would have chosen Option B.

Once those moves were made, this behind-the-scenes story should have died. But because Pettitte kept working out and informed Cash that he wanted to pitch when he showed up at camp a few weeks ago as a guest instructor, here we are in mid-March with Andy Pettitte back in a Yankee uniform. In the time that has passed since he and Cash talked in December, the Yankees have put together a blueprint for their 2012 rotation (whether they publicly admit it or not) that includes both Pineda and Kuroda as well as a third consecutive ST competition for the 5th spot between Hughes and Garcia. In addition to those six, the Yankees have also gotten strong spring performances from David Phelps and D.J. Mitchell, guys who are close to banging their heads against the Triple-A glass ceiling and not getting any younger. On paper, they're as deep as they've ever been in the rotation and well-stocked with young talent to cover any injury or performance-related issues. If ever there was a season where the Yankees didn't necessarily NEED a cheap veteran starter, this was it. This is where my concern comes in.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Slade Heathcott Out Until May

This might have flown under a lot of people's radars over the weekend, what with St. Patrick's Day and the Yankosphere still buzzing about the Andy Pettitte signing.  I almost missed it myself until I saw the post up on RAB yesterday, but Slade Heathcott is still rehabbing from the left shoulder surgery that ended his 2011 season and isn't expected to be fully recovered and ready to play until May.

This is a big blow to Heathcott.  He was having a solid season before he went down last year and was expected to be the starting center fielder for High-A Tampa, but his shoulder issues continue to hinder his development.  This was the 3rd surgery on his left shoulder in the last four years, and as a prospect who is still very raw and in need of refinement of his overall game these surgeries are starting to become an issue.  Even if he's physically ready to play in early May, Heathcott likely won't be fully rounded into game form until June, and there's no way to get that two months of missed plate appearances back.

I'm very high on Heathcott because of the tools he brings to the table and how hard he plays the game.  Like many others, I had him in my top 10 list of Yankee prospects but this latest setback has him at serious risk of tumbling down the rankings.  It's bad enough that Heathcott struggles to stay healthy and has yet to play a season where he's accumulated more than 300 PA.  Now with Mason Williams and Ravel Santana on the map and breathing down his neck in Charleston, Heathcott is dangerously close to being lost in the shuffle of high-ceiling OF prospects in the Yankee system.

2012 Storylines: Rotation (Over)Depth

(Pretty sure this guy is going to have a spot in the rotation.  Courtesy of The AP)

We're less than three weeks away from Opening Day, so rather than continue to look back at moves made or not made, look too far ahead to 2014, or spend too much time analyzing 20 plate appearances in Spring Training, it's probably best to start focusing on what the upcoming 2012 season has in store for the Bronx Bombers. Consider this the official kickoff of the 2012 AB4AR season preview series as we start broad, looking at the overall themes and storylines that will define the 2012 New York Yankees, and then narrow it down to the specific players once it becomes clear who will make up the 25-man roster. Pitching wins championships, and the Yankees find themselves with plenty of pitching right now, so after the jump I'll delve into the Yankees' suddenly overstocked rotation and how it could shake out over the course of 162 games.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

D-Rob's Road To Recovery A Smooth One

(Courtesy of The AP)

D-Rob threw his first bullpen session today after suffering the bone bruise in his foot.  25 pitches, no pain in the foot, and he's looking at roughly another week before he's back out on the mound pitching in a game.  That should give the Yankees plenty of time to work him into a few games to find his command again, and barring a major setback or another injury all signs point to him being ready for Opening Day.

Good news for the Yankees, not so much for other guys who might have had a chance to make the team with an extra bullpen spot open.  Although with Freddy's bruised hand there's still a small chance that guys like Phelps, Mitchell, or Betances make the team.  They weren't sent down to MiL camp with the first round of cuts and have certainly earned the opportunity to show Joe and the coaching staff a little more of what they can do.  But at the end of the day, the Yankees should have their setup man and arguably best relief pitcher ready and healthy for Opening Day, and that's the most important thing.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Tracing The Andy Pettitte Return Timeline

(He's BAAAaaaaack.  Courtesy of The AP)

You just never know when or where Ninja Cash is going to strike.  This Andy Pettitte situation didn't just start when he showed up to Spring Training a few weeks ago.  Apparently talks of a comeback started all the way back in December, with the Yankees offering Andy a $10-12 million contract to return to the team before they had completed the Pineda trade and Kuroda signing.  Now three months later, the Yankees have all three of them.

For a more detailed timeline of how this return came to fruition, check out the press conference recap with quotes from Cash, Andy, and Joe here.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Friday Afternoon "Holy S#@t! Andy's Back!" Linkapalooza: 3/16

*(Note- All of this was written prior to the big breaking story of the day)*

Three quick non-Yankee thoughts before we get to the links:

1) Now that the Mike D'Antoni has quit (because that's what he did) on the Knicks, can they just get rid of Carmelo too?  Better yet, can Evil Stern step in and just take the team from Dolan and contract them?  What a disgraceful organization.

2) Not a good time for the Rangers to be stumbling and bumbling and struggling with injuries.  They've had a great year, and I think they can still go far in the playoffs this season despite being so young, but not without Ryan Callahan.  He's a great player and I feel he's under-appreciated.  You can really see how much he means to their success when he's not on the ice.

3) Pathetic showing by UConn last night.  Talent-wise they were probably a top 5 team in the country and this is how the season turns out for them.  I hate to say it, but Calhoun needs to step down.  His shtick isn't working with the kids anymore, and there's never any continuity in coaching style because he's always missing games with some sort of physical ailment.  Retire and start fresh with Kevin Ollie.

Now the links:

- On Monday, Brien Jackson of IIATMS pondered the merits of re-signing Curtis Granderson and how that would fit into the $189 million budget plan.

Also on Monday, Matt S. of Yankees Fans Unite continued their stellar streak of prospect interviews with this Q&A with soon-to-be Charleston SS Cito Culver.  Good to know he hit the gym this offseason to prep for his first year of full-season ball.

- On Tuesday, Rob Steingall of Pinstripe Alley took a look at Baseball America's top 10 Yankee prospects from 2005-2010 to determine if the supposed "Yankee bias" applied to them.  While there isn't a lot of elite Major League talent there, the Yankees have definitely churned out a lot of quality ballplayers over that period of time.

- If you're a fan of torture, or just looking to meet your weekly quota of eye rolls, Mark Feinsand of the Daily News was nice enough to put together a collection of Bobby V quotes from the first Yanks-Sawx encounter of 2012.

- On Wednesday, friend of the blog Larry Koestler did for RAB what I was too lazy to do for AB4AR and compiled all the 2012 projections to create one aggregate projection line for each member of the Yankee lineup.  Lot to like there, even if only a handful of guys are projected to outperform their 2011s.

- Also on Wednesday, Larry's RAB compadre Joe Pawlikowski examined Brett Gardner's 2011 ups and downs to point out that he's not as inconsistent as people seem to think.

- Chad Jennings of LoHud had some details on Raul Ibanez's slow start, including Joe's thoughts on the matter.  I'm still willing to be patient with Ibanez, but if he's going to wear C-Dick's number he needs to represent it a little better.

- Steve Goldman of Pinstriped Bible had a very well-worded reaction to the "Michael Pineda to the Minors" trollfest instigated by a certain member of the WWL.

- Gregory of Evil Empire Prospects had a piece discussing Zoilo Almonte and how he fits into the Yankees' future outfield plans.  EEP is a relatively new blog so give it a shot.

- SJK of NoMaas had the latest offering from the "Stealth Bomber" series with this interview with Ben Gamel.  He's a little underrated because of all the high-profile prospects on his team, but this kid is legit.

- Bryan V of The Greedy Pinstripes supported the idea of D.J. Mitchell getting a shot at the rotation next season.  As somebody who's always been high on Mitchell, Bryan is speaking my language.

- It was a killer week for Mike E. at TYA.  On Wednesday he took an firm stance on the "to Curtis or not to Curtis" in 2014 issue and supported the idea of letting him walk after next season.

- Then on Thursday he spat in the face of the ESPN-centric trolling of Pineda with this hilarious spoof.  I'm sure you'll do a double take when you read the headline just like I did.

- Last but not least, I linked to this last night, but if you missed it, TYA's EJ Fagan and a team of writers have put together their annual Yankee magazine.  This year's edition is online-only and you can find the details for it right here.

With tomorrow being St. Patty's Day, it's only appropriate to have a little Dropkick for the Friday Afternoon Jam.  Typically I wouldn't put these guys on here because of their connections to Fraud Sawx Nation, but St. Patty's Day is the one day where it's acceptable, and there's an almost 100% chance that I end my night tomorrow at some bar belting this bad boy out.



Hope everybody enjoys themselves tomorrow.  Get drunk, have fun, don't drive, and stay safe.  If my day goes as well as I hope it does, there's almost no chance you'll hear from me until some time late Sunday afternoon.  Cheers, gang!

BREAKING NEWS: Yankees Bring Back Andy Pettitte

I'm a little later than most on this because I was out at lunch when the story broke, but according to Jack Curry the Yankees have signed Andy Pettitte (yes, THAT Andy Pettitte) to a 1-year/$2.5 million MiL contract.

There are still very few details about this move, but a conference call is scheduled this afternoon to formally announce the signing and Pettitte himself will be on the call.

I really don't know what to say about this.  I can't imagine why the Yankees felt they needed to bring Pettitte back, and I'm shocked that Pettitte is interested in playing again.  He sounded like he was enjoying retirement when he showed up at camp a few weeks ago and spoke to reporters.  But it's never a bad thing to see Andy Pettitte in a Yankee uniform, and as an added bonus I have a reason to use this Photoshop again.


** UPDATE- 1:35PM- Curry has a story on YES.com describing how some of this came up.  It all goes back to Andy's visit to camp three weeks ago. **

** UPDATE- 2:09PM- According to Mark Feinsand, the deal was finalized last Saturday.

** Via Joel Sherman, a Yankee source on the Yankees' position with Pettitte- "If he wants to come back, we say yes."

ST Thoughts & Afterthoughts: Part Deux

(Please don't worry about this guy.  Courtesy of The AP)

It's been a while since I mused on the happenings in Yankee camp, and there have certainly been some major developments since then.  My takes on those developments, and a few more random thoughts after the jump.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Yankees Yearly 2012

If you want to do some really good Yankee reading, check out the new "Yankees Yearly 2012" e-magazine, featuring writing from a team of top-notch group writers including my TYA colleague EJ Fagan.  It's got plenty of coverage of the 2012 team plus pieces outside the realm of what you would typically find in your daily spanning of the Yankee blogosphere, including interviews with Robbie Cano and Jim Boughton and special feature profiles on Michael Pineda and Dante Bichette, Jr.

EJ has all the details on the magazine plus links to where you can buy it here at TYA.  Do yourself a favor and check it out.  Trust me.

Give The Kid Another Coat

What I said on Tuesday:

"Keep in mind, though, that both of them [ManBan and Betances] have yet to showcase the type of command they each showed the last time out on a consistent basis in their short time at the Triple-A level...

They [ManBan and Betances] both still need polish, they both still need to develop, and the best way to accomplish those things is to spend another full season at Triple-A."

What Chad at LoHud said yesterday after ManBan took it on the chin in yesterday's game:

"If previous starts have been a reminder of what he can become, today was a reminder that he’s still very young with inconsistent command. It’s nothing that can’t be sorted out, but there’s still some development to be done."

And that's why I said what I said.  Manny Banuelos is a stud prospect, no doubt about it.  But he is still not a stud pitcher and still not advanced enough in his pitching skill to be a stud on a consistent basis.  He still needs to develop that consistency and the best place for him to do that is in Triple-A where the pressure is off.  Give him another year to polish up his game, smooth out the rough edges, and he'll be much better prepared to handle the hype and expectations next year.

In the mean time, let the guys like David Phelps (2.2 IP, 5 K on Tuesday, 0 ER allowed this spring) and D.J. Mitchell (3 scoreless IP, 0 H, 4 K yesterday) who are bumping their heads against the glass ceiling of Triple-A be the backup rotation depth.  They names aren't as sexy as Banuelos, but with more experience and innings under their belts they are better prepared to step in and contribute at the Major League level this year.

Spring Training Stock Market: Stock Down

We covered the players off to good starts on Tuesday. Today it's the other side of the coin. Here are the guys who aren't exactly lighting the world on fire in camp over the first 2+ weeks.

Raul Ibanez- Ibanez was the Yankees' lefty DH option of choice this offseason, and so far they are giving him a serious test drive to see what they can get out of him. Ibanez has been in the lineup at DH, LF, and RF, and currently leads the team with 24 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he only has 2 hits in those 24 PA (1-17 vs. RHP), with no walks and 5 strikeouts to boot (4 of them vs. RHP). He's also looked shaky in the outfield, making one error already and reminding us to not take Gardner and Swisher's defensive value in the corners for granted. As a 39-year-old player, it's reasonable to expect Ibanez to need a little more time to get into a groove, and he certainly shouldn't be written off based on 20ish PA. With how far he's fallen over the past two seasons, however, there will be some cause for concern if he doesn't start to pick it up eventually.

Eric Chavez- I was firmly against the Yankees bringing Chavez back this season after seeing how his 2011 played out. His bat has slowed down considerably, he doesn't have much power left, and as injury insurance at the hot corner, the Yankees could do better than a guy who's hurt just as much as A-Rod. The best thing Chavez had going for him coming into this season was his left-handedness, but so far that hasn't translated to much at the plate so far. He's 3-18 over his first seven games, leads all Yankee hitters with 6 K, and looks like he doesn't have much left in the tank. He's reportedly fine physically, but if Chavez can't show more than this over the remainder of ST, he shouldn't be counted on as a viable option to fill in for A-Rod on a regular basis at third if A-Rod gets hurt.

Russell Branyan- The Branyan signing looked like it could have been Cash's 2012 version of the low-risk/high-reward moves he made with Garcia and Colon last year, but Branyan's chances to make the team took a serious hit when the Yankees signed Ibanez and Chavez. With the way both of them have gotten out of the blocks, the opportunity was there for Branyan to make some noise and earn some consideration with a strong showing in camp, but he's been out with a back injury since he arrived. He's yet to even swing a bat this spring because of the injury, likely killing any hopes he had of unseating one of the other two for a bench role. It's not his fault, just some bad luck, but it's hard to get noticed when you aren't on the field.

Mike O'Conner- Mikey O was the longest of longshots coming into Spring Training, and as a lefty specialist candidate he stood a chance, albeit a slim one, to sneak onto the team with a great camp thanks to the injuries of others. After his first handful of appearances this spring, I think it's safe to say that O'Conner's slim chance of making the 25-man is already gone. He's only managed to get two of the left-handed hitters he's faced so far out, giving up 3 hits and a walk to the others, and righties have tuned him up pretty good as well. The life of a LOOGY is a dangerous line to walk and O'Conner has been on the wrong side of it so far. Also working against him are the facts that Clay Rapada is owning and the Yankees seem high on Cesar Cabral (team-high 5 appearances).

Adam Miller- If anybody was a longer shot than O'Conner to make the Yankees, it was Miller. After being a first-round draft pick in '03 and one of the more highly-touted pitching prospects in baseball in '04, injuries have ravaged Miller's career to the point that his pitching hand now resembles something similar to Chris Elliott's caretaker character from "Scary Movie 2." He's still got above-average stuff, but so far in camp it appears as though the injuries have done too much damage to Miller to even allow him to be a viable relief candidate. Small sample sizes be damned, 8 ER on 8 combined H and BB over 1.1 IP in 2 appearances without a strikeout is not a good look. It's unfortunate for Miller, who's had a tough go, but he's looking at being a part of the first round of cuts.

Other guys stumbling out of the blocks: 

Robinson Cano- Just 3-18 in his first seven games with no XBH, although given his track record there's very little cause for concern.

Andruw Jones- He was looking to make a splash after having knee surgery and getting into better shape this offseason. That hasn't translated into much at the plate yet, as he's just 2-17 and also without an XBH.

Jorge Vazquez- I'm picking nits here, since he didn't stand much of a chance to make the team anyway, but the hacktastic Vazquez hasn't shown much power at the plate while going 1-15.