It's Here...

It's finally here.  It's been 6 long months since the Yankees last played a meaningful baseball game and that game marked the end of the legendary career of Mariano Rivera.  Today marks the start of the season-long farewell to his Core Four teammate and Yankee captain Derek Jeter, but more importantly it marks the start of another season of Yankee baseball.

The offseason was a busy and productive one.  This year's team looks a lot different and potentially a lot better than last year's.  Will it be enough to get back to the postseason and chase title number 28?  We start finding out today.  Happy Opening Day, everyone.  And let's go Yankees!

Lots Of Sound Logic In Joe's Opening Day Roster Decisions

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

As the Yankees were coming down the home stretch of Spring Training last week, I thought I had Joe's final roster selections all figured out.  I thought he was going to go with the experience/performance combo and take Matt Daley for the final bullpen spot, which also would have allowed Vidal Nuno to stay stretched out as a starter in Triple-A and be ready to come up and spot start in case of an emergency.  When it came to the final bench spot, I thought Eduardo Nunez's tenure as a Yankee and familiarity with their system would give him the advantage over Yangervis Solarte and Joe would give him the nod based on loyalty.

In another shining example of why Joe and Cash have the jobs they have and I'm a cube monkey who blogs in his spare time, I was wrong on both accounts.  Joe didn't go on experience and he didn't go on loyalty.  He thought about what his team was going to need the most in the first few weeks of the season and made the 2 most logical choices to meet those needs.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Predictions

When I said the 3 weeks of season preview posts were over yesterday, I wasn't being 100% honest.  There's still the matter of making my 2014 predictions, an annual rite of passage I've passed with flying colors each of the last 2 seasons.  If you've already read the staff predictions post over at IIATMS/TYA, then you already know what my picks are.  Only thing that's changing here are the additions of the full AL East predictions and expanded postseason predictions.

Without further ado, here they are...

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/30/14

Spring Training is technically over, but there were a few noteworthy things happening yesterday as the majority of the team made its way to Houston for Tuesday night.

- Michael Pineda stayed behind to get 1 more start in at the Tampa complex.  He pitched in a MiL game and went 6 innings, giving up 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks with 8 strikeouts.

- If you missed it before, here's what Tuesday's starting lineup will look like: 1) Ellsbury- CF, 2) Jeter- SS, 3) Beltran- RF, 4) McCann- C, 5) Teix- 1B, 6) Soriano- DH, 7) Gardner- LF, 8) Roberts- 2B, 9) Johnson- 3B

- A roster spot still needs to be opened in order to add Yangervis Solarte to the 40-man.  No word yet on the move, but I'd guess Nik Turley goes to the 60-day DL.

- Donnie Collins took an educated stab at predicting the Opening Day roster for the SWB RailRiders.  Definitely not the starting rotation they envisioned having.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview Recap

Well that's it, ladies and gentlemen.  3 weeks have come and gone and with them we've previewed the upcoming 2014 season in every which way imaginable.  The last week of preview posts was this past week, a detailed position-by-position breakdown of the Opening Day roster and its strengths and weaknesses.  The rotation and outfield look like the no questions asked strengths of the team while the infield and bench look like the obvious weaknesses, but check out each individual roster group post and judge for yourself.

- The Infield

- The Outfield

- The Rotation

- The Bullpen

- The Bench

The regular season starts on Tuesday, so use these next 2 days to catch up on whatever you've missed.  The "2014 Knowns and Unknowns" series can be found here, and the "Season Storylines" posts here.  Check back tomorrow afternoon for my 2014 predictions.

The Minor League Team To Watch In 2014 Has Been Found

The Yankees have put the finishing touches on their Opening Day 25-man roster over the past few days, but they aren't the only team setting rosters with a couple of days remaining before the start of the season.  The roster pictures for each MiL affiliate are starting to come into focus and, courtesy of Josh Norris, it looks like Low-A Charleston is going to be the team to follow:

Charleston will have Judge, Avelino, Andujar, Torrens, Severino, Rookie Davis, Brady Lail and Tyler Wade
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) March 29, 2014

In Aaron Judge, Abi Avelino, Miguel Andujar, Luis Torrens, and Luis Severino, the RiverDogs will open the season with 5 of the top 26 from the AB4AR Top 30 on their roster.  Davis, Lail, and Wade are also on the radar as guys with serious prospect potential, and once the season gets going there's a good chance we see Gosuke Katoh, Ian Clarkin, Jordan Cote, and maybe even Ty Hensley in Charleston at some point.

It's a lot of young, still tough to project talent, but all in all that's easily the most exciting group of prospects to watch this year.  The next wave, if you will.  It wouldn't shock me at all if half of next year's top 10 prospects came from this team.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/29/14

- No final game for the Yankees yesterday.  They got rained out and so while some of the team left to fly to Houston, another group will stay behind to get some last-minute pitching work in.

- In a bit of a surprise, Joe announced Yangervis Solarte as the winner of the final bench spot.  He had an excellent ST and had an opt-out clause in his contract whereas Eduardo Nunez still had a MiL option remaining.  Let's see how that hot spring carries over to the regular season.

- Ivan Nova, David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, and Matt Thornton all threw sim games in place of their scheduled game appearances.  Michael Pineda will throw one today.

- Masahiro Tanaka was selected as the winner of this year's James P. Dawson award for the best rookie in camp.  No surprise there.

Saturday Afternoon Food For Thought: ST Starter Results

CC Sabathia- 5 G, 21.0 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 16 K
Hiroki Kuroda- 4 G, 11.1 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Ivan Nova- 5 G, 19.2 IP, 21 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
Masahiro Tanaka- 5 G, 21.0 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 26 K
Michael Pineda- 4 G, 15.0 IP, 14 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 16 K

Total- 88.0 IP, 78.0 IP, 24 ER, 10 BB, 91 K

We all know by now that Spring Training stats don't mean anything.  That said, it's hard to look at what the Yankee rotation has done this spring and not be impressed.  They've been great.  All of them.  The only really shaky-looking numbers are Kuroda's and all 6 of his ER came in 1 bad start.  He's been money every other time and very sharp in MiL outings.

The true test starts in a few days, but the Yankee rotation has passed the ST mid-term with almost straight A's.  CC looks healthy, sharp, and much more comfortable than he did last year.  Nova's more calm and confident.  Tanaka and Pineda have each looked overwhelming at times.  Based on what they've done this spring, this is the most excited I've ever been about a Yankee rotation heading into the start of the season.  Ever.

Teix Still Not Sold On His Wrist Strength

(Courtesy of the AP)

It's been a slow and steady process for Mark Teixeira as he's worked his way back into playing shape from last year's wrist injury.  From basic strengthening exercises to dry swings to batting cage work to full BP to playing in actual ST games, one would hardly call this a "normal" Spring Training for Teix and all along he's said the most important thing is making sure his wrist feels good all the time, no matter how he's swinging.  According to what he told Kevin Kernan of The Post on Thursday, he's still not 100% confident that the wrist is completely healed:

“I’m not trusting that the wrist is healthy.

I’m just trying to protect it.  Taking your ‘A’ swing, taking that swing that is 100 percent and I need to trust that I can do that and not feel pain. I need to finish my swing instead of protecting my wrist. Last year, to protect my wrist, I didn’t finish my swing."

Teix is batting a meager .086/.289/.114 in 35 PA this spring, with 10 BB and 11 K.  His only XBH is a double he hit as a right-handed batter a few weeks ago, so obviously the numbers fit somebody who's admittedly not swinging normally and holding back.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/28/14

The Yanks checked another game off the ST schedule last night with a 3-0 win over the Marlins.  Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka combined for the 6-hit shutout.

- Kuroda was great in his 3 innings (3 H, 4 K), but the story was Tanaka.  He followed up with a 6-inning relief appearance in which he allowed only 3 hits of his own, didn't walk a batter, and struck out 10.  Shutdown city, population Ma-kun.

- The big news of the day was roster announcements.  Joe announced Dellin Betances and Vidal Nuno as the winners of the final 2 bullpen spots before the game and Dean Anna as part of the bench after.

- Only 1 spot remains open and it's down to Eduardo Nunez and Yangervis Solarte.  Deadline to set rosters is 3 PM tomorrow.

- Jacoby Ellsbury went 2-5 and played center field in another MiL game.  He said he feels fine and Joe said he'll play in Sunday's Major League game as a final tuneup.

- Top prospects Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, Jose Campos, and Greg Bird will all be held back in ExST before starting their respective MiL seasons.

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 3/28/14

I'll be attending Brewers Opening Day on Monday and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't equally as excited for that as I am for the Yankees the next day.  I've never been to a season opener for any team in any sport before, unless you count UConn football and I don't.  As a diehard sports fan, it's an experience I'm very much looking forward to taking in and for once I'll be the one trying to herd everybody into the stadium to see the Star Spangled Banner and first pitch.  Lots open up at 10 AM officially and somewhere between 8:30 and 9 unofficially, so it's going to be quite the day of drinking and merriment.  Needless to say, Monday won't be a very active day for the blog, but I'll make sure to get a few things scheduled before cracking the first beer.  Now onto the links!

- On Monday, Chad Jennings of LoHud dished a whole crapload of Minor League updates, on everything from injuries to team assignments.

- Vizzini of NoMaas discussed the efficiency with which the Yankees spend their money, and correctly pointed out that their organizational expectations provide a different context for spending efficiency/inefficiency than most other teams.

- Mike Axisa of RAB put a bow on his 2014 season preview series with a personal preview of Derek Jeter's final season.

- On Tuesday, Michael Eder of IIATMS/TYA identified a pair of potential trade partners for Ichiro if the Yanks are really trying to move him.

- On Wednesday, Jason Evans of Yanks Go Yard kicked around the idea of bringing a 2nd lefty in the bullpen and weighed the remaining options.

- On Thursday, Chris Mitchell of Pinstripe Pundits examined how much of a hit the Yankees will take defensively without Brendan Ryan available at shortstop to open the season.

- Scott Davis of Pinstripe Alley mused on Alfonso Soriano and the added versatility he'll bring to the lineup this year.

- SG of RLYW compiled his 2014 projections into an all-encompassing look at what to expect from the team this season.  He's got the Yanks at about a mid-80s win team, so take that however you want.

- On Friday, Alphonso of It Is High... creatively vented his frustration with the Yankees for sending Zoilo down to the Minors again.

Going old school with some Queen for this week's Friday Jam.  Gonna be a helluva time on Monday.  Such a good time.



Enjoy your weekends, everybody.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Bench

(Not you again!  Courtesy of US Presswire)

So here we are at the final post of the 2014 AB4AR Season Preview Series.  The major storylines have been covered, the knowns and unknowns have been laid out, and all but one roster group has been broken down in anticipation of that magical day next Tuesday.  All in all, I feel pretty good about this team and I feel like I've done a pretty good job promoting those good feelings.  I think the new outfield is going to be super productive, I believe the rotation will end up being one of the 5 best in baseball, and I have no reason not to expect the bullpen to get figured out one way or another because it always does.  I can even muster up a little hope for the infield to be passable.

Here's the thing though.  I have zero faith in the Yankees having a productive bench this season.  None.  I know it's a popular trend to look at guys who have performed well in ST and start imagining them as regular season super subs.  The reality is that none of those guys are really that good.  If the Zelous Wheelers and Yangervis Solartes of the world were really that good, they would already be on a 40-man roster somewhere.  They very well could end up being just as productive as the more familiar faces that are going to open the season on the bench, but that's really not saying much when you look at that projected bench objectively.  The bench is a weakness again and it's something that will have to be addressed at some point if the Yankees are going to be real contenders for the title.

Shocker!! Forbes Ranks Yankees The #1 Most Valuable MLB Franchise

Forbes released its list of MLB franchise values yesterday, and in a major upset the Yankees came in at number 1 with a cool $2.5 billion value.  This is up from last year's $2.3 billion value and marks the 17th straight year that the Yanks have been the most valuable MLB team.  The Dodgers came in second at $2 bil even, and according to the full article the Yankees rank ahead of the Dallas Cowboys by $200 mil as the most valuable franchise in all of pro sports.

Considering that ticket sales, attendance, and TV ratings were all down last season as a result of the watered down on-field product, it's impressive that the Yankees were able to increase their value.  Just goes to show how big an international brand they are and how much they stand to make this year with the addition of Tanaka and a potential return to the postseason.  They may not have enough money to spend on Stephen Drew (they do), but the Yankees are still clearly doing just fine when it comes to the dollars and cents side of baseball.  Now somebody hit the music!

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/27/14

The Yankees were victorious in the 2014 Spring Training road finale yesterday, beating the Pirates 4-2 behind 4 shutout innings from CC Sabathia and 3-hit days from Ichiro, Eduardo, and Zoilo.

- Sabathia was just going through the motions and threw 44 pitches in his 4 3-hit innings, but it sounds like he looked sharp.  Next time we see him will be in the top of the bottom of the 1st on opening day.

- All 3 5th starter competition "losers" (David Phelps, Adam Warren, Vidal Nuno) worked out of the bullpen after CC.  They combined for 2.2 IP, 5 H, and 2 ER (Phelps) and are slated to pitch again on Saturday.

- No game yesterday for Jacoby Ellsbury, but he did go through a full workout.  He'll play in another MiL game today, maybe another on Saturday, and is still on track to be ready for Opening Day.

- Big day of morning roster cuts, with Preston Claiborne, David Herndon, Fred Lewis, Zoilo Almonte, Russ Canzler, and Scott Sizmore all getting reassigned to MiL camp.  Only a few real roster competitors left.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Bullpen

(Not Mo.  But potentially just as good.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

For the better part of the last 2 decades, any talk about the Yankee bullpen began and ended with Mariano Rivera.  No matter the combined skill and depth of the other 6 relievers in front of him, having Mo there for the 9th inning was the great equalizer, the 1-man advantage that no other team could compete with.  2013 was the final season of Mo's reign of terror over the rest of the American League and the Yankees embark on the start of a new bullpen era this season with Mo's successor assuming the 9th inning throne.

Mo was not the only major loss from last year's bullpen.  Recent mainstays like Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain have also moved on, and the Yankees enter this season far less settled in their relief role definition and hierarchy than they've been in quite some time.  The potential is there for this group to be every bit as effective and occasionally dominant as the last group was.  It's a matter of seeing who steps up, who falters, and how everything eventually shakes out.

Opening Day Roster Prediction

There are 5 days left until Opening Day, fewer ST games than that.  There's not much left to guess about at this point, so it's as good a time as any to make my official Opening Day 25-man roster prediction.  Without further ado, here's what I'm expecting to see:

Starting Lineup: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano

Starting Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda

Bullpen: David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, Matt Thornton, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Matt Daley

Bench: Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, Dean Anna, Ichiro Suzuki

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/26/14

In what was Derek Jeter's final ST road game ever, the Yankees lost to the Blue Jays 10-6 thanks to some truly horrid bullpen work by Preston Claiborne.  Gave up 6 runs, recorded 0 outs.  He probably cost himself a chance at a roster spot with that.

- Jacoby Ellsbury played in another MiL game and went 5 innings in center field to go along with a 1-4, 1 BB day at the dish.  He's scheduled for another one today and the team is saying he'll be ready for Opening Day.

- After John Ryan Murphy got reassigned on Tuesday, it was Austin Romine's turn yesterday.  By default, that makes Francisco Cervelli the (well-earned) Major League backup.

- Confirmed that Brendan Ryan will open the season on the DL.  Reported that Alfonso Soriano has been dealing with some shoulder tightness; nothing that serious.

- David Phelps and Adam Warren are scheduled to pitch out of the 'pen in today's game.  Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda threw bullpens yesterday.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Rotation

(Don't call it a comeback... Courtesy of the AP)

When Joe announced that Michael Pineda would be the 5th starter to open the season, he answered the final question about how the starting rotation would look in 2014.  CC, Hirok, Nova, and Tanaka had already been lined up to start the first 4 games of the regular season.  Now we know who comes after that.

What we don't know is how this rotation is going to perform, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic and even excited about the possibilities.  The potential is there for the Yanks to have 5 legitimate top tier starters in their rotation, 5 pitchers who can come out on any given day and completely shut the opposing team down.  It's been a long time since we've been able to say that about a Yankee rotation and even though a lot needs to go right for that possibility to be realized, that still puts the team in a much more advantageous position than it's been in years.  After the jump, the player-by-player breakdown of this year's starting 5.

A Quick Word On The Shift

(Just one more thing for Johnson to learn at third.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Yesterday, Pete Caldera wrote an interesting little article about the Yankees' plans to employ infield shifts more this year as part of their in-game defensive strategy.  They're one of the teams that hasn't been as quick to jump on the shift bandwagon as a team like the Rays, and with a very old and very range-limited starting infield this season it makes sense to try to cover some of those infield range holes with a shift in situations that call for it.

On Michael Pineda's Workload Limit

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

That Michael Pineda was formally announced as the winner of the ST 5th starter competition yesterday was hardly a surprise.  He was clearly the best man for the job based on what he showed in his first 4 ST appearances (2 ER, 16 K/1 BB in 15.0 IP).  What was a little bit of a surprise was Joe's declaration that Pineda would not have an innings limit this season.  The Yankees have been so, so careful bringing Pineda back from his shoulder injury.  As a young pitcher with only 1 full season of innings under his belt, it stood to reason that they would continue that strategy and put some kind of cap on his workload this year.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/25/14

With the rest of the spring rotation set, the Yanks used 9 non-rotation guys to work 9 innings against the Phillies last night.  They combined to allow 6 runs in a 6-0 loss.

- The big news of the day was Joe officially announcing Michael Pineda as the 5th starter.  Hard to say Pineda didn't earn the job.  Noteworthy was Joe's statement that Pineda would not have an innings limit.  Doubt that's 100% true.

- Jacoby Ellsbury returned to the field as the DH in a MiL game and did so without any problems.  He went 1-6 with 2 BB and is scheduled to play another MiL game today.

- Tyler Austin also played in a game yesterday, his first of the spring.  Looks like he'll get a few in before the start of the season and he could be ready for the start of the Double-A season.

- John Ryan Murphy was reassigned to MiL camp, so expect the Cervelli backup announcement soon.

- When asked about Brendan Ryan's status, Joe said he'd be "really surprised" if Ryan was on the Opening Day roster.

- The day's bullpens: Carsten, Hirok, Ma-kun, and Cesar Cabral.

AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Outfield

(Courtesy of the AP)

The Yankee outfield never came close to reaching its full potential last season due mainly to the injuries suffered by Curtis Granderson.  That being the case, even a healthy Granderson wouldn't have been enough to make the outfield truly a strength.  The projected starting outfield had become very rigid in its individual skill sets.  C-Grand hit for power and got on base but didn't hit for average and had no defensive value.  Gardner got on base and was a plus-plus defender but hit for very little power.  Ichiro was a plus defender with good speed but didn't get on base or hit for enough average or power to make the most out of it.

2 of those 3 starters from last year will no longer be a part of the starting picture in 2014.  As part of the offseason makeover, the Yankees added more well-rounded players to center and right field and shifted the newly-extended Gardner back to left field, where he's had the most success in the past.  There are still some things that need to be ironed out with respect to this new outfield alignment, but collectively they should be much better and much more balanced in their overall offensive and defensive makeup than they were last season.

Late Spring Training Winners And Losers

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Somebody cue the music because we've reached the final countdown.  We're now only a week away from Opening Day.  This time next week we won't be talking about who's going to make the bullpen or win the 5th starter competition or what the batting order should look like because all of that stuff will be decided.  That means the guys in camp still competing for roster spots or clearer roster definitions don't have much time left to prove their worth.  A little less than 3 weeks ago, I singled out some of the early winners and losers in Spring Training.  In the time since, the winner/loser landscape has almost completely changed, as it's wont to do when the sample sizes become a bit larger and roster cuts start being made.  With a handful of ST games remaining, here is the updated list for who's sitting pretty and who's not.

Would You Trade Ichiro?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

There hasn't been much trade talk involving the Yankees in the last week after a flurry of it earlier in the month.  The latest back injury for Brendan Ryan should have stirred up more talk involving the D'backs, White Sox, and the deep crop of young Yankee catchers, but instead it was Ichiro Suzuki who made trade rumor headlines yesterday when Jon Heyman reported that the Yankees were again trying to move Ichiro and were willing to eat some salary to get a "good" prospect in return.

This isn't the first time we've heard Ichiro's name in trade talks.  The Yankees have been trying to dump him for a while now that they've revamped their starting outfield (which will be previewed later today).  The problem with moving Ichiro is that he's basically valueless as a trade commodity.  He's super old, his skill set and production have declined dramatically, and he's owed way more money than any team would willingly take on for the level of production they'd get.  Good on the Yankees for attempting to ease that cost concern, but that's most likely not going to be enough to entice teams to give up even a mid-level prospect unless the Yanks are eating more than most of that $6.5 mil.

If the Yanks are willing to do that, the next thing they need to do is decide what their definition of a "good" prospect is and see if there's really any interest out there.  They were able to get something decent for Chris Stewart, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could do it again.  But if they're willing to pay Ichiro millions to not play for them, maybe they should be willing to pay him a few more to stay on as their 5th outfielder.  It ain't like the 4 ahead of him on the depth chart are pillars of health.

Spring Training News And Notes: 3/24/14

No game and no scheduled workouts for the Yankees yesterday, but that didn't mean some guys weren't getting their work in.

- Ivan Nova started a MiL game and dominated the way you expect a pitcher of his caliber would against low level competition.  8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 91 pitches.  He's ready.

- And it looks like he's going to get the 3rd starter over Masahiro Tanaka.  Joe has tagged CC, Hirok, and Nova to start on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to line them up for next week.  Tanaka goes 4th.

- Jacoby Ellsbury returns today, albeit in a DH role in a MiL game.  If he comes through without issue, he could play in a Grapefruit League game tomorrow.

- Tyler Austin, who's been hitting and taking defensive reps for a while now, could also get back into a few late spring games this week.  That could mean less missed regular season time than first anticipated.