Yankee Stadium Holding More Concerts That I Can't Attend

I missed Eminem & Jay-Z in 2010.  I missed the Metallica/Megadeth/Slayer/Anthrax "Big Four" show last year.  And now I'm going to miss 2 Roger Water shows this summer where he's playing "The Wall" in its entirety.

Why the fuck did I move to Wisconsin again?

P.S.- If Yankee Stadium hosts a Tool/Deftones/QOTSA show in 2013, I'm going to be pissed.

What The Order Of The 2012 Rotation Should Be

I've been thinking about this since almost the moment the Yankees added Pineda and Kuroda to the rotation.  It was inspired by the ideas proposed in the comments section of my next-day reaction post, those voices strongly in the corner of Freddy Garcia as not even the #5 starter, but the #2 right behind CC.  I don't think that will happen, and truth be told, the order of the rotation is really only important when the season begins and in the last month of the regular through the playoffs.  So in constructing my rotation for this season, I envisioned it heading into a 4-game postseason series.

1) CC Sabathia

Every good rotation needs an ace at the top, and CC has been nothing short of that since he first put on the pinstripes.  He's big, he's strong, he can give you a ton of innings, he strikes guys out, he limits damage, he's pitched in a ton of big games before, and his performance backs up the big contract he was given this offseason.  The Yankees are building the rotation for the future, but CC is still the head of the rotation right now.  In a big game, who else would you rather have taking the ball?

2) Michael Pineda

I've heard all the arguments against him- struggled in the 2nd half, doesn't have a 3rd pitch, will get hurt pitching in Yankee Stadium, etc.  But I've also seen the stuff he has and how it's worked for him, and I can point to his overall body of work last year, in his rookie season, and say that Pineda has the makings of a top-tier starting pitcher.  I don't think the Yankees would trade away their best hitting prospect in a long time for a back-end starter, so why not give the kid this spot?  He's got top-of-the-rotation stuff already; let him use it to grow into a top-of-the-rotation role.

3) Hiroki Kuroda

As much as I don't get too concerned with Pineda's negatives, knowing that they are there and could come up to bite him once or twice, I'd like to have a veteran pitcher behind him in the rotation, and that's exactly what Kuroda is.  He won't blow anybody away with his stuff, but he knows how to pitch, he isn't going to get rattled by anything, and he can give you innings even when he isn't having his best stuff day.  Kuroda would almost be like 2009 Andy Pettitte in this role, there to steady the ship if things in front of him get a little rocky.

4) Ivan Nova

While some have visions of the future #2 or #3 starter in their heads from the way he ended last season, the more likely case is that Nova tops out as a #4 starter.  And to be a #4 starter with his potential is nothing to be ashamed of, so I'd like to see Nova down a bit in the order where he can work on improving his offspeed stuff and continue to build on the momentum from his strong finish to 2011.  If Nova truly can replicate that success, then his ceiling will raise to that #2-#3 range and we all rejoice.  But I'd rather let him see if he can reach that level in a low-stress role as the #4 guy.

5) Whoever

Whether the Yankees end up going with Phil Hughes' potential, Freddy Garcia's recent track record, or A.J. Burnett's contract, I think the winner of the last rotation spot will be in exactly that spot.  And with what each brings to the table, there really isn't a bad option in the bunch for what the Yankees will need from the 5th spot in the rotation.

It seems pretty cut and dry to me.  You put your best in the best spots in the rotation.  But maybe not everybody shares my thoughts.  So what do you think, Yankee fans?  How would your 2012 starting rotation look?

Joba Rehab Going Well

I touched on it briefly on Saturday night on the AB4AR Facebook page, but I think it's news worth mentioning again as we're now less than 2 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.

He won't be among those showing up to compete for a spot on the roster, but Joba Chamberlain's rehab from last year's Tommy John Surgery continues to go well.  He threw off a half-mound for the first time on Friday, with Larry Rothschild and Billy Connors watching, and is right on track for an early to mid-summer return.

It's still pretty far off, but I have to imagine Joba's rehab schedule will factor into how the Yankees choose to use whichever 2 pitchers don't get the 5th starter role, assuming all 3 are still around at the start of the season.  The more innings they're throwing are fewer innings that Joba throws once he comes back.  And since Joba has already been designated an official "Bullpen Guy" and presumably has more to offer the 'pen long term, it's probably better for the team if he pitches himself back into shape as much as possible.  Lower-leverage bullpen innings would be perfect for that, but not if they're being soaked up by Freddy or A.J.  Stay tuned.

("Ow, dude!  My elbow!")

Super Bowl Schmuper Bowl...

Can we just get this stupid game over with already?  I mean, what's the big deal??  It's not like there's a recent history between these two teams and a ton of interesting storylines and subplots involved that the MSM has beat into the ground and will continue to do right through the game today.  It's just a football game.

And all the airtime being handed over to the Pats and Giants today is taking away from the REAL story.  That pitchers and catchers report in 2 weeks.  That's what people care about.  That's what the Yankee fans want to talk about.  Not The Super Bowl.  Just get this damn game over so we can move onto Spring Training.

P.S.- Official AB4AR Super Bowl pick: Pats 27 Giants 21.  "Like" AB4AR on Facebook.

Dante Bichette Jr. Keeps The Prospect Interview Train Rolling

(Photo used courtesy of Scott Tidlund.)

On the heels of their interview with Tyler Austin earlier in the week that I linked to yesterday, NoMaas struck back with another interview yesterday, this time with 3B and 2011 1st round pick Dante Bichette Jr.  I would have to say my favorite part was this comment by Bichette:

"I want to be more consistent with my approach and learn how to make adjustments quicker. Instead of making an adjustment after a game and realize I was messing something up, it would be a lot better if I could make the adjustment during a game or an at-bat."

That's a very mature and reasonable goal to have for the season for someone still just 19 years old.  I like the fact that Bichette is already starting to focus on the mental nuances of the game and not just the physical/mechanical tools.  Like Mason Williams, Bichette comes off as a very mature, disciplined young man with a good head on his shoulders who understands that he still has a lot of work to do to become great.  There's no doubt that growing up the son of a former Major Leaguer helped shape younger Dante's approach to baseball and I can't wait to see what he does this year in his first taste of a full-season league.

For my take on Bichette, check out my write-up on him from the AB4AR Top 30.  I had Bichette considerably lower than most of the prospect lists that have been coming out lately, for the sole reason that I didn't want to rush to judgement on a kid who came in with a lot of question marks without seeing him in a full-season league.  I sold Bichette a little short, predicting he'd start the season in SS Staten Island, and now I imagine the Yankees are going to be more aggressive and start him out in Charleston.  If Bichette can put together another solid season in his first full season, he'll be a lock for my mid-season Top 10.

Girardi Tipping His Hand On DH Matter

("Hmmmm, Damon or Matsui?  Damon or Matsui?")

While making at appearance at the Modell's in Times Square yesterday, Joe Girardi shed some insight on where his preferences may lie for a left-handed DH.

"When you think about Raul Ibanez, he has had success wherever he has [gone]... "

"Obviously, we know what Johnny and Matty [Matsui] have meant to this organization over the years, and how they've been successful in New York.  I'm curious to see how it is all going to shake out."

"I can't tell you it is going to be one of those three guys, or anyone. But obviously, we know they know how to play here."

Well we know Joe likes his veterans, so this is really no surprise that he wouldn't mind having one of the 3 guys he's most familiar with and he thinks are most familiar with Yankee Stadium.  But how good are these 3 as potential fillers of that lefty DH spot?

Ibanez was pretty awful in 2011 (.245/.289/.419, .306 wOBA, -1.3 WAR in 575 PA), but was better against righties (.256/.307/.440, .322 wOBA), making him an obvious platoon candidate.  But even those positive splits aren't much to write home about, and Ibanez is old as fuck and basically useless as an emergency option to play the field.  Not a lot to like here.

Damon was actually productive at the plate last season (.261/.326/.418, .328 wOBA in .647 PA) and it's likely those numbers would play up a bit more hitting in Yankee Stadium, a place Damon really learned how to tailor his lefty swing to in order to generate some good power numbers.  But as a platoon DH candidate, Damon might not fit the Yankees' needs, indicated by his reverse vs. L/vs. R splits in 2011 (.812 OPS, .355 wOBA vs. L, .715 OPS, .313 wOBA vs. R).

Matsui, who is younger than Damon, might actually be the most shot out of any of these 3.  He hit just .251/.321/.375 in 2011, and his reverse splits vs. right-handed and left-handed pitching is even more severe than Damon's (just a .291 wOBA vs. RH).  Matsui is also practically incapable of playing the field, something that Damon can still do if needed.

Out of these 3, I think Damon's ability to still play the field and run the bases at a respectable level tips the odds in his favor, and he should bounce back a bit against righties hitting towards the short porch in right.  But I'm not sure I would say I'm as big a fan of any of these 3 as primary options for the DH spot as Joe seems to be.

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 2/3

It's Friday afternoon again, it's pay day (at least for me), and we're a little over 2 days away from The Super Bowl.  That means it's time for another Linkapalooza.  Dig it.

- On Monday, Brien Jackson of IIATMS had a piece suggesting that the Yankees have too much talent in their bullpen and floated the idea of shopping D-Rob to see if they could bring in a good young bat.  I've never even considered either of these theories, but Brien makes very good arguments for both.

- On Tuesday, Chad Jennings of LoHud had a very insightful interview with Mason Williams.  I think my post yesterday made it abundantly clear what I thought of this interview.

- In keeping with the interview theme, Sensei John Kreese of NoMaas interviewed Tyler Austin on Tuesday as part of their always-ongoing "Stealth Bomber" series.  I liked Austin's comments on base stealing.  Kid already seems to have a great approach to that part of his game.

- Ricky Keeler of Yanks Go Yard took his shot at breaking down the battle for the 5th rotation spot.  His choice?  A.J. Burnett.

- On the other side of the A.J. Burnett coin was Rebel Yankee Chick's take on Cash's recent comments about A.J.  I don't know if she read my take on those comments, but I'm picking up what she's putting down.

- To round out the interview parade this week, we've got fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite talking to Low-A Charleston's hitting coach, Greg Colbrunn.  The parts that stood out to me most were Colbrunn talking about his hands-off approach with young hitters and the skill/name association game they played.  A definite must-read.

- Earlier today, Larry Koestler of RAB expanded on my A.J. theories from earlier in the week and dug deeper to see if there were some trends in what pitches A.J. is throwing in particular counts.  It's always great to have people out there smarter than me who think about these things that I don't.  I'll set 'em up, you knock 'em down, Larry!

- Also from RAB, yesterday Mike Axisa proposed Andre Ethier as a lefty DH candidate.  The numbers certainly make him look perfect for the job, but I don't know if I'd be willing to part with Betances and Romine to make it happen.

- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog looked into the Mark Teixeira bunting situation by breaking down his hitting splits to all fields from both sides of the plate.  His conclusion that Teix should be looking to drive in runs no matter what is right in line with my feelings on the matter; William just has better numbers to support it.

- A pair from TYA, the first from Michael Eder, who on Wednesday looked at how Michael Pineda's 2011 numbers stack up against other pitchers' rookie seasons in the past decade.  3rd pitch or not, the numbers show that Pineda is already damn good and stands to get even better.

- Yesterday, EJ Fagan shed the light of perspective on Manny Banuelos, reminding those of you out there who had forgotten that ManBan is still just 20.  At a time when he should be prepping for his junior year of college, he's pitching in Triple-A.  That's impressive and says good things about his future potential.

- Normally, I only try to reference ESPN when Wallace Matthews is saying something stupid, but I gotta hand it to him.  His "25 Questions, 25 Days" series on ESPNNY is top notch.  If you aren't already checking it out daily, you should be.

- Lastly, just because I've moved away from writing about the NFL here doesn't mean I'm going to let The Super Bowl completely fly under the radar.  Jamie Insalaco of Bomber Banter offers a pretty straightforward explanation as to why the Giants are going to win on Sunday.  So that's good news for you if you're a Giants fan.

As for the Friday Afternoon Jam, we're gonna kick it old school with what I assume is Josh Hamilton's favorite Van Halen song.  I don't know how long this latest reunion is going to last, but the David Lee Roth version of Van Halen is the only good version of Van Halen and that's a fact.



P.S.- You all lucked out this week on my empty Katy Perry threat (sorry, Dennis).  Next week I won't be so nice.  Hit me with some good requests, anything.  And if you're one of the many who haven't done it yet, do me a solid and "Like" AB4AR on Facebook.

Some Chick Was Stalking Cash?

(Courtesy of Steven Hirsch/NY Post)

Meh.  I've seen better.  Stalkers are like big contracts.  You only want to have one on your hands if it's an elite, game-changing talent.  This chick is not that.

I will give her props for extorting a little coin from the Cash Man, though.  This is the same guy who straight up robbed Swish from Kenny Williams, turned water into wine with Freddy and Bartolo, and just made a damn good trade for a 22-year-old power pitcher.  He's usually pretty tough to out muscle in the dollar game.

P.S.- Is this why Cash hasn't traded A.J. yet?  I imagine it can be a bit distracting closing a deal with another GM over the phone when you've got your stalker holding on Line 2.

Laying The Groundwork For The Next Core Four (Or Five, Or Three)

(You can't say watching a repeat of this at Yankee Stadium in 2017 wouldn't be awesome.)

If you haven't checked out Chad Jennings' interview with Mason Williams over at LoHud, then I feel very sorry for you because it was a great read.  If you have, then you probably came away from it with a good impression of young Mr. Williams based on what he had to say.  One thing that stood out to me in this interview was Chad and Mason's discussion about the "core" group of players that were a part of the championship-winning team in SS Staten Island last year and the possibility of keeping that core together as they advance through the MiL system.

That core (Williams, Cito Culver, Dante Bichette Jr., Branden Pinder, Tyler Austin, Angelo Gumbs, Ben Gamel) will be moving up to Low-A ball this year to form what could be a very formidable Charleston River Dogs squad along with pitchers like Evan DeLuca, Bryan Mitchell, and new acquisition Jose Campos. Depending on which prospect list you swear by, this Charleston team will include 3-4 of the Yankees' top 10 prospects, 4-6 of their top 20, and 7 of my personal Top 30, and as fun as it is to consider how good this squad can be in 2012, it could be even more fun and possibly more beneficial to the Yankee organization to look long term and consider the value of keeping these guys together and formulating the next homegrown core of Yankee talent.

Baseball is a relatively easy sport to measure and quantify value and performance through statistics.  Where it becomes more difficult to measure is in the intangible categories, specifically the concept of team chemistry.  While a successful play in football or basketball typically requires the cooperation and combined successful efforts of multiple players doing different things, most successful plays in baseball involve one individual player making one individual play.  If a batter swings and hits a home run, he really has nobody on his team to thank except himself.  If he swings and misses, he doesn't have a teammate hitting from the other side of the plate who can take a hack as well.  You get the idea.  Theoretically, the "chemistry" and team spirit, whatever it may be, should have very little influence on how well baseball players and a baseball team play.

But in thinking back to all that I've read about the Yankee dynasty of the late 90s-early 2000s, particularly the 1996 and 1998 teams, I can't help but recall all the anecdotes and stories from players and coaches alike about the type of chemistry and clubhouse environment those teams had, and the close-knit culture that was established.  Everybody knew their roles, every man played for his teammates, and there was very little concern given to ego or reputation, even when guys like Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry were introduced to the mix.  Those teams were cohesive units, true sums of their parts, and Williams talking about fostering strong bonds with his teammates at these lower levels makes me think about how those bonds can be nurtured and strengthened over time, and whether or not there is value in the Yankees' front office making a conscious effort to keep this group together because of those bonds.

The standards for how members of the Yankees are expected to carry themselves since that last dynasty have been set and enforced primarily by the recent "Core Four" of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte, the constants on the roster through a time of high turnover.  With that group now down to two, and with Jeter and Mo seeing the lights at the end of their career tunnels, there will be a void left in carrying on the tradition of "The Yankee Way."  Guys like CC, Cano, D-Rob, and Teix can pick up the slack, but they all took different paths to get to the Yankees and would really only be continuing the precedent set by the Core Four rather than establishing their own identity.  And that precedent has been much more businesslike than the more familial atmosphere of the late-90s teams.  Guys like Williams, Bichette, Pinder, whoever, who establish relationships and a team culture amongst themselves at these lower levels, could perhaps be the next in line to carry the "True Yankee" torch and get back to that family version of "The Yankee Way" that harks back to the glory days of the 90s.  Would that help any?  It's hard to say.  But I certainly don't think it could hurt.  A group of players who are familiar with each other and enjoy being around each other can set the tone for the entire team's attitude.

Besides the hard-to-define team spirit/clubhouse culture benefits, there are obvious, easily quantifiable benefits in terms of payroll management that can also be reaped from this scenario.  The prevailing thought right now is that if the Yankees make a concerted effort to get to the $189 million payroll line for 2014, it would be to reset their luxury tax percentages and allow them to get back to their big-spending ways without being penalized as much for it.  But what if they didn't HAVE to go back to those ways?

Cash "Has A.J.'s Back"

"I am comfortable with A.J.  He's extremely talented and has been inconsistent, but I can tell you I'm comfortable with the effort he's giving, I'm comfortable with everything that he does, the accountability that comes with him. Obviously, we signed him to have more success than he's having, but it's a competitive industry and as long as he's not going to give up on himself, then I'm going to have his back the entire way."

Wait, I think I've seen this before.  I know what happens next.  Billy Eppler and A.J. get on a boat and go out to fish in the middle of the lake.  Then there's a gun shot, A.J. is never heard from again, and the camera slowly pans back to show Cash sitting in his office looking out the window as the "Godfather" theme starts to play in the background.

(Quote courtesy of ESPNNY)

Mark Teixeira's Ready To Lay Down Some Bunts. Wait, What?

(Now THAT'S a good looking swing!)

Mark Teck-SHARE-uh's struggles as a lefty last season are well-documented.  Teix himself even owned up to the problems that have crept into his swing as he started to consciously attack the short porch in right field, and he vowed to work this offseason to fix the mechanical mistakes and get back to being the type of well-rounded hitter he was in 2009.  But dropping down bunts to beat the defensive shift?  That might be a little extreme.  Teix did have this to say on the topic at the Thurman Munson Awards Dinner last night:

“I’ve been so against it my entire career, (but) I might lay down some bunts.  If I can lay down a few bunts, beat the shift a little more the other way, then I’m right where I need to be.”

I'm all for working at balancing his swing and approach at the plate back out to improve as a hitter.  But taking the approach of actively looking to bunt to beat the shift would be just as detrimental to Teix and his role in the lineup as his shitty left-handed splits were last year.  Teix is a power hitter in a run-producing spot in the lineup.  His goal shouldn't be to just beat the shift, it should be to drive in as many runs as possible in run-producing situations.  Bunting down the third baseline really doesn't fit into that goal.

Let's not forget that it wasn't very long ago that Teix was a .300/.400/.550-caliber hitter with well above-average L/R splits. He's not some crummy L/R platoon guy at the end of his career who is just looking for a way to stay relevant; he's 31 years old, in his physical prime, and based on his track record, an elite all-around hitter.  His focus should be getting back to that level of elite production or as close to it as possible to maximize his value as a run-producing bat in the middle of the lineup, and any efforts made by him or the Yankees to do anything other than that are selling him short.

If he wants to try to lay down a bunt here or there in Spring Training, whatever.  But when it counts, I want Teix up there, be it from the right or left side, looking to drive the ball to all fields and bring baserunners home.

Yanks Moving And Shaking In The Front Office

It started with the story of Jim Hendry's signing breaking earlier in the day and finished up with the Yankees officially announcing a bunch of front office promotions.  Real quick, here's the list:

- Hendry as Special Assignment Scout
- Steve Donohue to Major League Head Athletic Trainer
- Mark Littlefield to Major League Assistant Athletic Trainer
- Jean Afterman to Sr. Vice President/Assistant GM
- Billy Eppler to Assistant GM
- William Kuntz to Manager, Pro Scouting

I haven't read any specifics, but I imagine these new positions come with some nice perks.  A little extra salary, end-of-the-year bonuses, preferred parking spots at The Stadium, and in Eppler's case, probably more than that.  He did very well for himself interviewing for other GM positions out there this offseason, finishing 2nd to Jerry DiPoto for the Angels' job, and could be settling in as the heir apparent to Cash.  Plus he's a UConn School of Business grad like me, so clearly Eppler is a talented cat.  If I were him, I would have pushed for a calzone for lunch every day and a new desk big enough to sleep under.

Cash Recreating The 2008 Fraud Sawx Bullpen...

... Well, maybe in Triple-A he is, if the recent signing of Manny Delcarmen to a MiL deal on the heels of the Hideki Okajima signing is any indication.  And that's just a brilliant move on Cash's part, because a veteran presence in the Triple-A bullpen is an often overlooked aspect on the pathway to a World Series ring.

Seriously, if these Okajima/Delcarmen moves are just Cash's way of trolling Ben Cherington's attempt to recreate the Yankees' bargain bin pitching wins of last offseason with his Aaron Cook signings and Clayton Mortensen trades, then it's fucking brilliant and whoever in the Yankee front office decided to do it should get a hefty raise.

On the other hand, if either one of these guys even throws one pitch for the Yankees for this year, that's probably not a good thing.

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Is There Hope For A.J. In 2012?

(It's the dreaded return of A.J. Two-Face)

After the additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that A.J. Burnett's days as a starting pitcher for the New York Yankees were over.  It had already been reported that Cash shopped him around at the Winter Meetings while offering to eat $8 million of his remaining contract, and that was before the Yankees were flush with the rotation depth that they now have.  Once Pineda and Kuroda were in the fold, it seemed obvious that Ninja Cash already had the next move lined up to rid himself of one of his biggest mistakes.  And yet, we found ourselves still talking about A.J. Burnett as a current member of the Yankees, which leaves the frightening door of opportunity open for him to somehow be the 5th starter in 2012.  It is a door that many of us do not want to see A.J. walk through, but we may have no choice if Cash can't find a deal to move A.J. that works for him and the team.  That being the case, we might as well prepare ourselves for what A.J. has to offer, which, given his performance up to this date, won't be much.  While most of A.J.'s 2011 stats could be used to create optimism for a better 2012, there are some trends within the numbers that make me think 2012 and beyond will be more of the same.

The biggest problem with A.J. is that his value is derived almost entirely from the quantity of innings he has pitched, not the quality of the innings (save for Game 2 of the '09 World Series).  Innings eaters are a valuable asset to have in the rotation, but for $82 million most people would expect better than the back end production A.J. has put up in those innings, and justifiably so.  His 5.26/4.83 ERA/FIP split in 2010 didn't pass the eye or the smell test, and neither did 2011's 5.14/4.77 follow up.  A.J. has been consistently erratic and inconsistently effective, marred by bouts of problems with his mechanics, inability to repeat his delivery, and little or no command of either of his two pitches.  He has tried to combat this with the attempt to develop a changeup, but mid-30s is hardly the right time for a pitcher with command problems to attempt to master a new pitch.

In order to be a successful two-pitch starter, a pitcher better have a damn good fastball, and for the early part of A.J.'s career he has.  But over the last handful of years A.J. has seen his fastball velocity steadily decrease, from 95.9 MPH in 2007 with Toronto (the earliest year PITCHf/x tracked it on FanGraphs) to 94.4 in '09, 93.1 in 2010, and 92.7 this past season.  As the velocity has decreased, the value of A.J.'s fastball has plummeted with it, both by standard pitch value measures (-14.1 in '09, -16.2 in '10, -34.0 in '11) and as measured by PITCHf/x (-12.4, -10.1, -28.1).  It's also no secret that the majority of A.J.'s fastballs tend to be located in the middle to upper part of the strike zone (see heat map below for an example), which is not a good place to live when you're losing your heat on the pitch.  Even when paired with a curve that was surprisingly above average in 2011 (8.9 rating standard/10.7 PITCHf/x), a low-90s fastball with little movement that consistently hits the heart of the plate is going to do more harm than good for a two-pitch pitcher, and it certainly hasn't done A.J. any favors.

 (Courtesy of FanGraphs)

When a pitcher's throwing a flat fastball with decreasing velocity down the meaty portion of the plate, the expected result would be a lot of contact.  Surprisingly enough, this actually wasn't the case for A.J. in 2011, as his contact rate dropped from 81.6% in 2010 to 76.5% in 2011.  His in-zone and out-of zone contact rates, 54.3% and 90.4% respectively, also decreased from their rates of 2010.  An explanation could be that hitters were laying off more of A.J.'s offerings that they didn't like, especially his curveball when he couldn't locate it, but his 2011 swing rates don't support that theory.  In direct contrast to his contact rates, A.J. generated more swings (43.8%) and more out-of-zone swings (30.3%) than he did in 2010, and his Swinging Strike rate of 10.0% was a high for him as a Yankee.

These trends last season certainly help to explain A.J.'s elevated K/9 total (8.18), but they should also lead to a better ERA and FIP result.  A pitcher generating more swings, more swings and misses, less contact, and striking out more batters while walking fewer than he did the year before should result in much more than the marginal improvements in ERA and FIP that A.J. experienced in 2011.  The answer for why that didn't happen lies in the contact A.J. is generating, specifically the quality of contact, and the insight that leads into what might be happening when batters face A.J.

Bill Hall? Really??

If this report about the Yankees having "serious talks" with Bill Hall is someone's idea of a joke, it's not fucking funny.

Bill Hall as an option for a backup utility infield role with the Yankees is like the Bill Hall of options that the Yankees could choose to fill their backup utility infield role.  Bill Hall is the Bill Hall of utility infielders.  It's almost a gross overstatement to even refer to Bill Hall as a utility infielder, because lately the only two skills he seems to possess are the ability to strike out a lot and the ability to make the routine play at third base look impossible.  He offers practically the least useful utilities out of any list of candidates you could construct from anybody and everybody who has ever played the game of baseball.

Yes, I understand any offer he gets will likely be a non-guaranteed MiL deal, so there's no need for me to be this dramatic.  But that's exactly why I don't want him around.  Even if he's in Triple-A, he's a menace.  Balls bouncing off his glove from every angle could potentially hit and injure players in the dugout and fans in the first few rows on stands.  I wouldn't even hire him to work as a vendor in Yankee Stadium for fear that he would start dropping full sodas and bottles of beer on people.  Bill Hall can in no way be associated with the New York Yankee organization in 2012.

I Think Bobby V Still Thinks He Works For ESPN

(I don't know if this Clayton Mortensen is going to be our pitcher of the future, but maybe.")

Apparently Bobby Valentine wasn't finished with his assessment of the Yankees' attempts to upgrade their rotation, as he was shooting his mouth off again this weekend, this time expanding his analysis to include Jesus Montero.

"I thought that was kind of in their plans.  He [Montero] helped their plans come to fruition by the way he played that last month of the season. I didn't really ever think he was going to be their catcher of the future but maybe." 

"Kind of in their plans?"  You don't think he was the catcher of the future "but maybe?"  Who are you, fucking Peter King??  Word of advice, Bob.  If you aren't up to snuff on somebody or something or some team, then do the right thing and keep your mouth shut.  I thought we covered this last time.  Don't say stupid stuff just to be quoted.

"I don't know what the Yankees are doing... "

Obviously.  Hence the need for you to be quiet.

"I think Brian (Cashman) is a real smart guy, one of the great managers in the game of baseball, and I don't know what his plan was."

And you weren't supposed to.  Nobody was.  That's how Cash operates and that's why he's one of the great GENERAL managers in the game of baseball.  If you or anybody else would have gotten wind that he was trying to make the moves he did, that could have had an effect on how the whole thing played out.  It was brilliant strategy and smart business.

But seriously, Bobby, can you just get off Cash's dick?  Can you get off the Yankees' dick?  For 5 seconds maybe??  Your team just traded your starting shortstop for a guy who posted a 9.42/5.61 ERA/FIP split in FUCKING TRIPLE-A LAST YEAR.  His career tripleslash at the Major League level is 5.12/5.58/4.74 with 4.74 K/9 and 3.69 BB/9.  And you're about to lose out on Roy Oswalt to the Cardinals.  You've got bigger things to worry about than commenting on the Yankee rotation and what their plans are/were/could have been/should have been with Jesus Montero.

Yes, the Yankees' moves this offseason have made your team's efforts look even worse than they look on their own as they try to copycat Cash's success with Freddy and Bartolo from last year.  But your approach to address that issue should not be to comment on what the Yankees did and the questions you have about it.  Worry about your own team and leave the idiotic, baseless, cookie-cutter analysis of the Yankees to John Kruk and the rest of the BBTN clowns that are still employed by ESPN.

Predicting The New Guys' Numbers

(I wouldn't get too attached to those numbers, gents.)

Now that everything has been made official with the Michael Pineda trade and the Hiroki Kuroda signing, the next big thing to wait for will be their introductory press conference.  Part of the fun of the intro presser is seeing new players put on the Yankee uniform and hat for the first time, and part of the fun of the new unis is seeing what jersey number new players will get, as numbers tend to be at a premium when somebody joins the Yankees and what they wore for their old team might not be available.  This year, both Pineda and Kuroda look like they're going to be searching for new ones.

Pineda wore #36 last year for the Mariners, but that number was worn by Freddy Garcia last season for the Yanks and will likely be assigned to him again in 2012 as he doesn't appear to be as likely to be traded as A.J. or Phil Hughes.  If Pineda is real hung up on the 36 thing, he won't be able to split it as a Yankee, as both 3 and 6 are off limits for obvious reasons, although 6 has yet to be officially retired.  He could reverse it and wear 63, which has been vacated by Jesus through the trade, but that number would be better served as one on hold for a Triple-A call-up.  My guess is that Pineda will wear #38, which will be available as Luis Ayala won't be back with the team this year.  It's the closest to 36 with 37 being retired, and it's a pretty damn good number.  It also doesn't have a ton of "great" Yankee history, so Pineda can start his own legacy for it.

Hiroki Kuroda's #18 was occupied by Andruw Jones last season and stands to be assigned to Jones again this season.  And Kuroda might have a long way to travel from 18 to find something he likes.  If he goes down the road he's blocked by Francisco Cervelli at 17 and the retired duo of Whitey Ford and Thurman Munson at 16 and 15.  If he goes up the road, he's looking at Ramiro Pena at 19 and then the just recently-vacated #20 of Jorge Posada.  I don't think the Yankees are going to be giving that number up any time soon before they retire it along with Torre's 6, Jeter's 2, and Mo's 42.  So the next best bet would be #22, which was used multiple times last year for Greg Golson and Brien Gordon.  That's a good pitching number, and it's got some good history as a Yankee, so it makes sense to give it to Kuroda.

If either of these guys is really tied to their number, we could see some clubhouse wheeling and dealing once training camp starts.  Freddy Garcia and Ramiro Pena seem like reasonable dudes; maybe they'd be open to a good offer.  But if those talks stall, you heard it here first.  Pineda wearing 38 and Kuroda wearing 22 in 2012.

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How's The Roster Situation Looking?

With the Pineda-Campos trade now completed, and the Jones and Kuroda signings official, now is probably a good time to check in on the current roster situation and how the Yankees are managing it.

Truth is, from both the 25- and 40-man perspective, the Yankees are in good shape right now.  Working off of the 40-man roster as it stands today, I see 21 guys who are going to be no-doubt inclusions on the initial 25-man to open the season; 10 pitchers (Garcia, Kuroda, Logan, Nova, Pineda, Rivera, Robertson, Sabathia, Soriano, Wade), and 11 position players (Cervelli, Martin, Cano, Jeter, Nunez, Rodriguez, Teixeira, Gardner, Granderson, Jones, Swisher).  I would anticipate either Phil Hughes or A.J. Burnett being the 11th pitcher on the staff, but not both of them, to up the number to 22, with the Yankees still looking to add a lefty DH and an Eric Chavez-type to provide some bench and corner infield depth.  Those additions would bring them to 24, still leaving them a slot to finish out the 12-man pitching staff with whoever wows the coaches the most in Spring Training.

Using the 40-man to add those players they still need should not be a problem either.  Right now, the Rule 5 guys, Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyers, are likely the next in line to go if the Yankees fill their DH spot through a signing.  If they somehow do manage to trade A.J. for a bat, that player would simply take his spot on the 40-man and that would work as well.  If there are multiple FA moves made, the Yankees would likely look to one of the duo of Chris Dickerson and Justin Maxwell as the next cut to make room.  It's unlikely that the Yankees will spend the money to add 3 more free agents, but they have the roster wiggle room right now to do it.

It was a little shaky earlier in the offseason, but right now the Yankees are in a very good position in terms of roster management.  They're set up to build arguably the deepest and best 25-man roster in baseball to open the season, and they have the room to do it without having to sacrifice any of the young talent they have on the 40-man roster (Betances, Phelps, Adams, Joseph, Romine, Almonte).  And once the season starts, they'll be able to open up a little more room by transitioning Feliciano and Joba to the 60-Day DL.

It's all coming together nicely right now.  Just keep the days ticking off that calendar so we can get to pitchers and catchers reporting.

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/27 (With Bonus Friday Afternoon Jam)

Two weeks in a row of linkarounds!  I might be on to something here.  I'm thinking this will definitely become a weekly feature at AB4AR because there's just too much good stuff going on around the Yankosphere to not do it.  Let's get to the links!

- On Tuesday, Rasheeda Cooper of Bomber Boulevard had one of the better Jorge Posada tribute posts that I read this week.  Well done, Rasheeda.

- On Wednesday, Brien Jackson of IIATMS threw another name into the lefty DH hat in the form of The Giambino.  It may be unlikely, but not a bad option.

- Also on Wednesday and also on the topic of DH, Larry Koestler of RAB presented his list of DH trade options.  Some more intriguing names in here as well.

- Fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite expanded the trade scope for hitters to include some potential candidates to replace the quality young bat the Yankees lost in Jesus with these 7 suggested trade targets.  I would move A.J. and a prospect or 2 for any of those guys if the other teams were interested.

- Josh Norris of Minor Matters Trenton got the jump on the complete Baseball America Top 30 Yankees Prospects list last night via his Twitter feed.  Some interesting choices on that list to say the least.

- BrianV21 of The Greedy Pinstripes likes Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the rotation.  I like his logic that Hughes offers the Yankees the most both in terms of production and potential return trade value.

- Rebecca Glass of Pinstriped Bible, on the other hand, seems to be leaning towards sticking Phil back in the bullpen with her post today.

- Frank Campagnola of Pinstripe Alley ponders whether A.J. can have a bounceback year in 2012 or not.  I appreciate the effort, Frank, but personally I'm still not buying what A.J. has to sell.

-Robbie Clark of Yanks Go Yard got political with his "State of the Yankees Universe" address on Thursday.  Although there weren't as many as Barry O got the other night, there are definitely a few standing ovation-worthy points in there.

- 2 from my TYA homies to close it out.  First one from EJ Fagan yesterday, who campaigned again for the Yankees to go after Yoenis Cespedes as some OF insurance for their soon-to-be-FA pair of C-Grand and Swish.

- Also from yesterday and also on the topic of the outfield, Michael Eder suggested trading for Andrew McCutchen and wondered what kind of prospect package it would take to get him.  Here's a hint, Adam Warren and Jake Cave would not get it done.

For the Friday afternoon jam we're going with Queens Of The Stone Age.  I know Drew Magary would approve, and I hope everyone else out there does as well.  Don't work too hard this afternoon, people, and enjoy your weekends.



P.S.- Message to all the readers and members of the AB4ARmy out there.  Help make the Linkapalooza better each week.  If there's stories I'm missing or that you want to make sure I include during the week, email me the links, and Friday Afternoon Jam requests would also be appreciated.  I'm curious to know what everybody out there listens to.

Hiroki Kuroda Says Hello

(And a tip of the cap to you, good sir.)

“I feel happy to be a part of such a storied franchise, which is always in contention for a World Series.  I am also very proud to be a part of this current team, which boasts so many great players. As a member of the Yankees, I would like to do my part by doing the best I can throughout the season. I hope that I can make a difference in achieving the team’s ultimate goal, which is to win the World Series.”

So did Hiroki Kuroda just lay down the greatest introductory statement in Yankee history or the greatest introductory statement in sports history?  Holy shit!  That's a tough act to follow if you're whoever the Yankees either sign or trade for to be the lefty DH.  Better start writing, re-writing, and rehearsing your lines now because Kuroda set the bar pretty damn high.  That's one good way to say hello to your new teammates.  Here's another:

4 Yankee Prospects In MLB.com Top 100 Prospects List

If you weren't aware that MLB.com released its first Top 100 Prospects list yesterday, then I feel bad for you.  I don't feel bad for the Yankees, though, as they managed to put 4 players on the list, and solidly on the list I might add, as all 4 were inside the top 75.  Here's what MLB.com had to say about the 4 Yankee selections and my quick take on their takes.

- Manny Banuelos: 13th- "Once he throws more strikes, he has the chance to be an electric starter who can be a No. 2 or 3 starter."

My Take: Banuelos didn't take a huge knock for his command issues last season thanks to his track record and the fact that he's a LEFT-handed starter with nasty stuff.  It's certainly possible, but I think pegging ManBan as a potential 3rd starter at the Major League level is selling him short a bit, especially when the word "electric" was used to describe him previously in the same sentence.

- Dellin Betances: 41st- "His command took a step backward in 2011, and he’ll need to harness his stuff a bit better to have long-term success."

My Take: It's a simple statement, but it's true and it rings truer to Betances than any other Yankee pitching prospect.  Command has always been the name of the game with Betances.  Another year without it and he could tumble down a lot of people's prospects lists, including this one.

- Gary Sanchez: 53rd- "As long as the defense improves, he can be a bat-first big league backstop, catching every day and hitting in the middle of a lineup."

My Take: For as long as Jesus was in the Yankee system working on his defense, he graduated from Triple-A still having his ability to catch every day questioned.  For Sanchez to already have scouts saying he can do it every day with some improvement when his defensive game is so raw and he's still in A-ball is a very good thing.

- Mason Williams: 73rd- "A left-handed hitter who can hit for average and should mature into more power, he has a better idea in terms of an approach than many hitters his age."

My Take: Advanced speed and natural athleticism is one thing.  But to also possess an advanced skill so important to being a great hitter at a young age is even better, and Williams seems to have that with his approach.  The more that matures and evolves as he advances through the system, the higher his ceiling will become.

Well Here's One Good Rotation Decision

This almost slipped off my radar yesterday, but after the nonsense that was the 6-man rotation down the stretch last year, I had to make sure I snagged it.  At the Jorge press conference, Joe had this to say about the rotation for 2012:

“I can tell you it won’t be a seven or six-man rotation.  It’ll be five."

"Right now we’ve got seven starters, and we’re going to have to make some decisions.”

There was some more coachtalk fluff added in for the sake of not tipping his hand, which I get.  But cutting through that, I think we can all agree that CC, Pineda, Nova, and Kuroda are going to be the first 4 in the rotation in some order and they should be.  These guys' numbers clearly show that they are the 4 best starting pitchers on the staff and they should be treated as such.  Hughes, Freddy, and A.J. are going to have to fight it out for the last spot, assuming they are all still around in Spring Training to compete, and that's the way it should be.  This ain't the Little League World Series and not everybody needs to be allowed to pitch, and these comments are a good sign that Cash and Joe have learned that lesson from last year.

Not sacrificing approximately 35 starts from your 4 best pitchers to keep everybody happy?



(Quotes via LoHud)

How To Keep The Russell Martin Revival Tour Going

2011 was an important year for Russell Martin.  After two All Star-caliber seasons for the Dodgers in 2007 and 2008, he was basically cast aside like an old mitt after experiencing serious decline, much of it likely injury-related, in 2009 and 2010.  The Yankees were happy to pick him up off the scrap heap for $4 million and install him as their bridge between the Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero Eras behind the plate in 2011.  A funny thing happened on the way to that plan, though, as Martin bounced back this past season, regaining some of his All Star form and making his way back onto the All Star team.  The Yankees rewarded Martin for his 2011 with a 1-year/$7.5 million deal on Tuesday, in the process implying that they may still not be 100% sold on Martin as a long-term fixture behind the plate, even with Jorge and Jesus out of the picture.  In looking at Martin's 2011 numbers, there are a few things that he could do in 2012 that could keep his upward momentum going and instill some more confidence in the organization to extend him beyond this season.

Martin's final line of .237/.324/.408 with a .325 wOBA in 2011 was a step in the right direction from where he had been trending the previous two years, but still not up to the standard he set in '07-'08.  After a torrid start in the season's opening month (.293/.376/.587, .420 wOBA) Martin cooled off considerably and was up and down at best for the remainder.  The first two numbers that stand out to me when trying to explain Martin's 2011 are his BB and K rates.  Martin has shown from Day 1 in the Majors that he has a very good eye at the plate.  Even in 2009 and 2010, his BB rates didn't decline with the rest of his production, but in 2011 he posted a 10.5% BB rate, the lowest value of his career since the 9.6% he put up in his rookie season of 2006.  Martin coupled this lower BB rate with a career high 17.0% K rate, certainly not something that qualifies him as a hacker, but nonetheless greater than what he's traditionally shown.

A contributing factor to those changes could certainly be Martin's career high Swing Rate in 2011, 43.5% according to PITCHf/x, as could his career high 8.3% Swinging Strike rate.  But deeper than that, the numbers that concerned me the most were the number of pitches Martin was seeing in his plate appearances.  In 2011 Martin averaged 3.74 pitches per plate appearance, below what was his 3.89 career average and even further below the P/PA values in the high 3.90s that he had in his career years.  Paired with the increased swing rates, these numbers suggest that Martin was being a bit too aggressive in his approach at the plate and putting himself in too many unfavorable counts.  When in those type of counts, a hitter will tend to take more defensive swings, generate less contact and less good contact, and in Martin's case, fail to capitalize on his strength of his great batting eye at the plate.  This would certainly explain the low batting average and increased K rate.

Also concerning were Martin's contact rate splits to left, center, and right field in 2011.  Martin's track record in these categories shows that he tends to hit a lot of his ground balls to the left side and back up the middle, and starts to elevate the ball more as he goes to right.  But in 2011 these splits became even more extreme:

- LF: 18.0% LD, 61.3% GB, 20.7% FB
- CF: 18.3% LD, 49.5% GB, 32.1% FB
- RF: 22.8% LD, 17.7% GB, 59.5% FB (*29.8% IFFB)

Combined with Martin's wOBA splits of .457 to left, .239 to center, and .261 to right, these values above suggest that there are differences in Martin's swing depending on where he tries to hit the ball, and not helpful ones.  It would be one thing if he had these contact splits and was productive across the board when hitting to all fields.  But the low wOBA values to center and right tell me that he's not making a lot of quality contact on those swings, and the majority of his ground balls up the middle and fly balls to right are turning into outs.  Interestingly enough, while Martin had his lowest LD and FB rates to left field, he did hit 14 of his 18 home runs in 2011 to left. So he certainly made the most of the solid fly ball contact he did make to left field.

AB4AR Top 30 Prospects Update

With Jesus gone and Jose Campos in, there are some slight changes that need to be made to the AB4AR Top 30.  Actually it's only in the Top 10, where Campos essentially replaces Jesus and slots a bit further down the list.  The new Top 10 looks like this:

1) Manny Banuelos
2) Dellin Betances
3) Austin Romine
4) Gary Sanchez
5) Mason Williams
6) Jose Campos
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott

I said I like to go with production and steady advancement over ceiling and potential when it comes to pitching, but for a pitcher of Campos' makeup, I'll make an exception.  He already has two above-average pitches, fastball and curve, with the fastball being well above-average thanks to mid-90s velocity and very advanced command.  He's only 19 years old and he stands 6'4", so he's got time to fill out and possibly add even more velocity as he learns to harness his curve and develop his changeup to a consistent 3rd pitch.  And his numbers speaks volumes about what he already is as a pitcher and what he's capable of:

- 81.1 IP, 2.32 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 9.41 K/9, 1.44 BB/9

For the sake of comparison, here are what some other recent Yankee stud pitching prospects did in their first A-ball campaign:


- ManBan '09: 108.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 8.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9
- Betances '08: 115.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 10.53 K/9, 4.60 BB/9
- Nova '07: 99.1 IP, 4.98 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.89 K/9, 2.81 BB/9
- Hughes '05: 86.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 1.89 FIP, 9.70 K/9, 2.08 BB/9

Granted, those numbers above are from higher levels of A-ball than Campos' short season numbers from 2011, but you get the idea.  With what he's done as a 19-year-old with limited experience, I feel totally justified putting him in the Top 10.  And with Campos moving up to Low-A to join Bryan Mitchell, Branden Pinder, Tyler Austin, Dante Bichette Jr., and Mason Williams, it should be an exciting year in Charleston in 2012.

**SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT**- Check out the whole AB4AR Top 30 again right here.

No More Kim Jones On YES??? NOOOOOOOO!!!!

Jorge retiring is dramatic enough.  But now you're telling me I'm not going to get to see Kim Jones on YES anymore?  Now that's a nice kick in the dick to start my morning.

According to Neil Best, Kim was offered a contract by YES but turned it down to "explore other opportunities."  Unless those other opportunities involve her and Chris Carlin replacing Joe and Evan on the midday slot on WFAN, then that is just unacceptable.  Kim is the best.  And truth be told, I'm really not interested in seeing Nancy Newman get pied on the field after a walk-off win.  And Jack Curry?  He's my man, but there's no way he's going to rock an outfit like Kim.

Only 7:30 in the morning and the day is already a downer.  Oh well.  Here's to the happier times.