Monday, June 6, 2011

Draft Day, Draft Day, Draft Day!!

The MLB amateur draft starts tonight, which is always big news if you're a baseball fanatic.  Admittedly, I am not as big a draft freak as others, even though I love me some Yankee prospects.  I just don't have the time or the resources to follow up on all the potential talent out there at the HS and college level, so I leave that to the professionals who do and get my love on once guys officially become Yankees.

Last year's crop of talent was a lot of high-upside, low-risk variety from what I understand, and the Yanks are already getting solid returns from the likes of Rob Segedin (3rd Rd.), Tommy Kahnle (5th), Kyle Roller (8th), and Dan Burawa (12th) in A-ball and when short-season SI starts up, we'll get another look at the Cito Culvers and Mason Williams' of the world.  And with the Yankees not picking until the 51st pick this year (thanks a lot, Randy), expect them to be aggressive on someone who drops down the board from their slot.

And that right there is the extent of my 2011 MLB Draft preview.  Like I said, I'm not exactly Mel Kiper when it comes to this and I don't try to be.  If you're looking for excellent draft coverage, check out the stuff from the boys at The Yankee Analysts and anything that Mike Axisa writes about at River Ave. Blues.  Once the draft is over and I get a chance to follow up on these guys' thoughts, I'll weigh in with my take.  Maybe.  Until then, follow them and trust what they say.

West Coast Road Trip Thoughts & Afterthoughts

(High fives all around!  Courtesy of The AP)

- Before they went out on the road, I said I would be happy with a 5-4 record from the Yankees on this 9-day tour of some of the best starting pitching the AL has to offer.  So the fact that they came in 6-3 and extended their lead in the AL East is more than fine with me.

- That being said, it is a bit frustrating to look back on the series and see just how close the Yankees were to going 9-0.  A few hits with RISP here and another fluke Mo BS there in Seattle, and just a couple hits anywhere in the first game against Anaheim and things would be looking really bright right now.  I hate to rain on the parade by saying that there's always some "yeah, but... " scenario with this year's Yankees, so I just won't say it.

- A theme for the 2011 season that continued through this trip was the solid starting pitching.  From the end of the Seattle series through the Oakland one, the Yankees got 4 straight good performances from their rotation: back-to-back lights out jobs by CC and Colon followed up by 2 solid starts from Freddy and A.J.  I don't care who you're playing against, 6 runs allowed over a 4-game span is damn good.  CC followed up his beauty with another gem Saturday against the Angels and Colon was pretty decent yesterday, so the rotation continues to at the very least exceed expectations and at the most carry the team.

- The "Get Jorge The Hell Out of the DH Spot" campaign is in full swing now.  He started the trip hitting .178/.298/.357 and he finished it hitting .178/.290/.349.  He had 2 of his 3 hits for the whole trip yesterday, and even then he managed to ruin the double by inexplicably trying to stretch it to 3rd.  I don't care if it's more ABs for Andrew Jones, more for Chris Dickerson, or more for Chavez when he comes back.  If the Yankees aren't going to call up Jesus now, they need to do something with what they've got because Jorge is D-U-N DONE.

- Robbie Cano showed some signs of breaking out on the trip, getting 10 hits (6 for XB), scoring 6 runs, and also driving in 6.  His patience and selection at the plate still leaves a lot to be desired, but he is getting back to producing for a run-production spot in the lineup.

- Similar situation for The Horse, who also gather 10 hits, 7 runs, and 7 RBI over the 9-game trip.  He looks more comfortable at the plate and his swing looks much more in tune with his body than it did a few weeks ago.  Joe just needs to keep the guy healthy and give him a day every week at DH to do so, even if it means putting people in the first-base seats at field level in danger by playing Nunez at 2rd.

- I know he's The Fireman, but "The Magician" might have been a more appropriate name for D-Rob yesterday.  He pulled a David Blaine, completely setting up his own death-defying situation by walking 2 men to load the bases before managing to escape right before our very eyes without allowing a run.  Ta-da!!!!

- If all you're doing is looking at Mark Teixeira's BA and complaining that he's not playing well, then you're an idiot.  The guy is straight raking right now, and if the 18 HR and 41 RBI don't do it for you then maybe the .914 OPS, 149 wRC+, .394 wOBA, and career high .291 ISO will.  Just a little BABIP luck (Teix's is currently .236, 32 points below his career low, which was set last year) and we're talking about Teix as the leading MVP candidate instead of C-Grand and Jose Bautista.

- Props to Joe for ditching the formula yesterday in the 6th, going to D-Rob early to preserve the lead, stretching Joba to get through the 7th and the 8th, and finishing things up with Mo.  A 6-3 trip looks and feels much better than a 5-4 one, Joe knew it, knew his horses were rested, and rode them to victory.  If only he could do that all the time.

- Now that the Yankees are coming back home, the Jeter 3,000 watch will kick into high gear.  Just one question, if his next 14 hits are all seeing-eye grounders through the hole at short, do we still applaud?

- CC is a monster.  Last 4 starts: 4-0, 33 2/3 IP, 28 H, 5 BB, 6 ER, 20 K, and he never threw more than 118 pitches in any start.  That's not just dominance, that's EFFICIENT dominance.  The power of the pants is undeniable.

- Best highlight of the trip, hands down, was the video of Torii Hunter falling into the stands on Cano's HR on Saturday as the small contingent of Yankee fans parted like the Red Sea and let him faceplant into the concrete.  Call them classless if you want (haters), but you gotta give Yankee fans credit.  They know when to get involved and when to stay out of the way.

- Off day today, then the fahckin' Sawx come into town for 3 starting on Tuesday.  The Yanks have pushed Nova back a day to line up Garcia, A.J., and CC for the series finale, while the Sawx have scratched Clay Buchholz from his Wednesday start and will instead throw Tim Wakefield.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Rotation Upgrade Options- Internal

Ivan Nova might have done just enough on Friday night to not lose his spot in the rotation the next time through, but still didn't do enough to guarantee his spot moving forward.  If he continues to not be able to keep runners off the basepaths and not generate any swings and misses, sooner or later the time is going to come where he'll be kicked to the bullpen and a new arm will be inserted into his spot, especially after Cash went public this week saying he was looking to upgrade the rotation.  With the trade market not quite heated up yet, the first place to look for a Nova replacement would be internally.  Here are the 4 top candidates.

Hector Noesi- He's always been plugged as a Nova 2.0 type, a guy with better stuff and even better command, and Noesi got called up earlier this season when the Yankees needed help in the 'pen.  He was pitching relatively well in Triple-A (3.92 ERA, 3.73 FIP), and has performed admirably in his limited innings for the Yankees (0.96 ERA, 3.15 FIP in 9.1 IP).  Noesi has already shown that the moment isn't too big for him, evidenced by his 4 shutout innings of relief in picking up the win in extras against Baltimore, and actually has a higher K/9 rate and lower BB/9 rate in the Majors than he had with SWB.  Most important, though, has been Noesi's ability to get swings and misses, Nova's biggest Achilles heal.  In his 9+ innings of work, Noesi has a 12.8% swinging strike rate, and the lack of info on him suggests that rate could stay consistent, at least for a little while before teams start to adjust to him.  If Nova got hurt tomorrow, Noesi would be my first choice as a replacement.

Carlos Silva- Silva was the last of the Yankee "Free Agent Veteran Scrap Heap" initiative earlier in the season, and has stuck around longer than Kevin Millwood after 5 starts in the Yankees' MiL system.  Looking at just his 3 starts in Triple-A, there are reasons to be hopeful that Silva could be better than Nova and reasons to be concerned that he might be a carbon copy.  In his 3 starts for SWB, Silva has pitched 18.1 innings, giving up 7 earned runs on 16 hits and 4 walks.  On the positive side, he has shown the ability to go deeper into games than Nova has been and has been much better at keeping guys off base.  On the negative side, Silva has struck out only 8 batters in these 3 outings, with his K total decreasing each time out.  His stuff sits somewhere between that of Nova and Freddy Garcia, so if he can't get guys to swing and miss in Triple-A, what's to say he would do it against better competition in the Majors? 

David Phelps- This guy (copyright: Jon Gruden) has been the best pitcher on the SWB staff so far this year, and is the most ready to come up and pitch at the Major League level.  In 11 starts so far, Phelps has put together a 3.29 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, has increased his K/9 rate from his 12 Triple-A starts last year, and has a K/BB ratio over 3.  He throws more strikes than Nova, walks fewer guys than Nova, and provides more length than Nova.  In his last 3 starts, Phelps has gone at least 7.1 innings every time out, with 16 K to just 3 BB.  His stuff might not play up to the Major League level as well as it is right now at Triple-A, but with Phelps' makeup and approach, it's reasonable to expect that he could provide results at least slightly better than Nova's.

Phil Hughes- He of the mysterious dead arm that was still never definitively diagnosed, Hughes has been on the recovery trail since his MRI, receiving cortisone shots, throwing off flat ground, and as recently as yesterday throwing off a mound in a simulated game.  While there haven't been any velocity readings on Hughes, the general consensus is that his arm speed and ball speed are looking good through the zone, and Hughes could be on his way to some rehab starts beginning in Extended ST.  The timetable for his return is still far out (at least a month), but if Hughes has recovered from whatever ailed him early in the year, and his arm strength and velocity is back, he would be a huge addition to the rotation and a huge upgrade over what Nova has been providing.

Saturday, June 4, 2011

2 Runs On 3 Hits...

That's all we got??  Three goddamn hits?!

Friday, June 3, 2011

How's That Trade Looking Now?

Austin Jackson 2011: 236 PA, .224/.288/.333, 15 XBH, 23 R, 14 RBI

Curtis Granderson 2011: 235 PA .278/.348/.612, 31 XBH, 44 R, 41 RBI

Jackson '11: 74 wRC+, .283 wOBA, -5.5 UZR/150, -0.1 WAR

Grandy '11: 165 wRC+, .415 wOBA, 1.2 UZR/150, 2.9 WAR

Anybody still bumming over trading Austin Jackson for C-Grand?  Anybody?  Frye?

Didn't think so.


The Grandy Man can indeed.

Nova Pitching For His Job Tonight?

Joe can say whatever he wants, ...

"I wouldn’t say he’s pitching for a slot… He’s had some ups and downs. I think (his youth is) part of it. I think there’s been some inconsistency. I think he’s walked more people than he’s accustomed to walking. But I think it is all part of a learning process for him and trying to get him back to using all of his pitches.” (via LoHud)

But Cash clearly thinks the rotation isn't good enough ...

“We are a championship-caliber-contending team with areas of need that I need to work on. We are going to have to continue to look for ways to improve our pitching.” (via The Post)

And the truth of the matter is that Ivan Nova has not been very good lately.  2 weeks ago he was coming off a streak of 4 solid starts out of 5, but after his last 2 outings he has looked tentative, inconsistent, and has not been able to give the Yankees length or quality stuff.  He's got a K/9 rate of just 4.50 and a BB/9 rate of 4.00 to go with it and just a 3.9% swing-and-miss percentage.  If there's a spot on the staff that could use improvement, it's his.

I like ya, Ivan.  But when you actually are pitching like Ivan The Terrible and your manager is making excuses for you while your GM publicly states that he's looking to improve the pitching, that don't add up well for you.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

How Are Things Over In Flushing?



David Wright has a broken back, Fred Wilpon is a jack-jawing old fuck, Terry Collins is losing his shit, the team has no money, the players can't execute, the ballpark is half empty, and Einhorn IS Finkle.

Yep, sounds about right.

** UPDATE- 1:07PM-  The Mets are down 7-0 to the Pirates in the middle of the 3rd.  This is beyond "when it rains, it pours" if you're a Mets fan.  This is "when it pours, it downpours and your whole basement floods a week after you just converted it into your new mancave and the water damage destroys your new 3-D TV."

And it's hilarious.

Justifying The Yankees High All Star Count


By now everybody knows that the first ASG voting standings were rolled out by MLB yesterday, and in what should be no surprise to anybody, the Yankees are well represented.  And by "well represented," I mean "the entire starting infield and 1/3 of the starting outfield"-WELL represented.  On the surface this appears to be a case of the Yankee big names capitalizing on their stature and getting the ballot boxes unfairly stuffed by their fans.  But when you really break it down, a case can be made for all but one of these guys being deserving of their spots at the top of the voting.

C- Russell Martin- 1st in wOBA (.369) and OPS (.810), both by hefty margins over the other AL 5 catchers with enough ABs to qualify.  Also 1st or 2nd in traditional stats like HR (9), RBI (26), XBH (15), and with 6 SB thrown in with good measure.  With Joe Mauer on the shelf and Martin leading all AL catchers in WAR (1.8), this is a pretty easy choice.

1B- Mark Teixeira- Tops amongst AL 1B in HR (16) certainly gives him street cred with the general voting public, but being 3rd in RBI (38), R (33), OPS (.902), wOBA (.389), and WAR (1.8) behind Adrian Gonzalez and Miggy Cabrera makes Teix's battle a bit of an uphill one.  But chicks dig the long ball, fans dig the long ball, and Teix is giving the people what they want right now. 

2B- Robinson Cano- A down year for Cano still has him head and shoulders above his main competition at second.  He leads AL 2B in Hits (59), HR (11), RBI (37), and is 2nd in R (31), SLG (.514) and wOBA (.364).  His OBP and WAR numbers don't stack up against other deserving candidates like Howie Kendrick, but Cano's status as the reigning best 2B in baseball and the fact that Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia are having down years too works to Robbie's advantage.

3B- Alex Rodriguez- I already touched on this yesterday, but it warrants repeating for the All Star discussion.  The Horse is the best 3B in the AL.  period.  2nd in Hits (56), 1st in R (32), 2nd in HR (9), 3rd in RBI (31), 2nd in OPS (.845), 2nd in wOBA (.373) and 1st in WAR (2.2).  And he's playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at the hot corner.  He may not be replicating '05 or '07 but he's still the best of the bunch.

OF- Curtis Granderson- This one is a no-brainer.  C-Grand has arguably been the best player in MLB not named Jose Bautista this season.  He's 2nd amongst all OF in R (44) and HR (17), 1st in RBI (41), 3rd in OPS (.960) 3rd in wOBA (.415), and 3rd in WAR (2.9).  Need I say more?

SS- Derek Jeter- This is where the proof train stops.  If Derek Jeter were named Ray Whitson (don't know where that came from) then he probably wouldn't even be on the ballot.  Statistically, the only SS he's been better than so far are Cliff Pennington and Alcides Escobar, 2 guys who I could definitely probably outhit.  But the ASG is a popularity contest, and Jeter's track record has certainly earned him the popularity he has, so if you're going to get mad at anything, get mad at the system.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Wait, Mark Teixeira Stole Home Last Night?

If you're like me, and didn't get the chance to watch the game last night, you probably didn't believe it either when you read that in the game recaps this morning.  But sure enough, he actually did do it.  Here's visual proof:


Is that the most improbable steal of home ever?  I know it took some brain farts on the part of A-Rod and the A's to make it possible, which makes it a bit of a fugazi steal of home, but this is still Mark Teixeira we're talking about.  He of the 16 career stolen bases and 5 times caught stealing .  Dude can run the bags with the best of them but he isn't exactly Lou Brock in his prime.

Cue the "you just can't predict baseball, Suzyn" sound clip from Sterling on that one.

Overrated Yankees Are So Overrated Because They Play For The Overrated Yankees

 (Here's the poll.  Click for larger if you want a closer look at the hatred.)

 The good news it that for the second year in a row, The Horse and Joba topped an MLB players poll conducted by Sports Illustrated.  The bad news?  It's the yearly "Most Overrated Players" poll.  And not only that, but Derek Jeter came in 3rd in the poll and Nick Swisher was tied for 4th.  So the 4 most overrated players in MLB are Yankees.  Now normally I would take something like this and use it as a soapbox to stand on and proclaim that it's the latest in the MSM's never ending quest to besmirch the good name of the Yankees.  But since it was actually the players who voted, I'll just say that it's a classic case of guys drinking too much haterade.

First, let's start with Swish.  Sure he's having a down year this year, but that hardly makes him overrated.  The guy is probably still underrated after the Yankees picked him up for parts off the scrap heap in 2009 from Chicago.  All he's done since putting on the pinstripes is be above average in every way imaginable.  He hits for power and gets on base plenty and plays a pretty good right field.  An OPS+ in the 120s and a wOBA of .376 over the last 2 seasons speak for themselves.

Now Jeter is an interesting scenario.  For each of the last 3-4 seasons, the argument could have been made that the guy was overrated.  His range had deteriorated, as had his power, and yet he was still praised by the MSM for his "playing the right way" style.  But now, I would make the argument that that high praise is no longer present when looking at Jeter.  He's a weak, groundball-hitting machine with next to no range left at short, and the media presents him as such.  For a guy his age playing a premium position at a below-average level, Jeter is probably perfectly rated right now.

Joba is an interesting case.  He probably gets put into this category because of all the chaos surrounding his status as a starter or reliever, which is unfair.  And while he does have a tendency to give up home runs in bad spots (career high 16.7 HR/FB % this year), and while I do tend to bag on the guy a lot, Joba has actually been pretty damn solid his whole career, and even better this season.  His FIP and xFIP numbers have always been below his ERA, he's getting groundballs at a career high clip this season (62.3%), his walks are down, and he's recovered some of the velocity and swagger that he had back in '07-'08.  With the Fraud Sawx shelling out 9 mil to Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler to completely shit the bed the way they have this season, it's hardly fair to call Joba overrated with the numbers he's put up.

Last is The Horse, and his case is just as ridiculous as Joba's.  For all the talk about how washed up he is, the guy is still 2nd amongst all MLB third basemen in SLG, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in wOBA.  He may not walk as much as he used to, but he doesn't strike out as much as the great Kevin Youkilis, and he plays a much better third base defensively than everybody not named Adrian Beltre.  And surprise, surprise!  Guess who leads all third basemen in WAR with 2.1?  That's right.  Alex F'ing Rodriguez.  Opinions can be whatever people want, but the numbers don't lie.  Even at 35 going on 36 and possibly with some lingering oblique/back issues, A-Rod is still the best all-around third baseman in baseball.  How is that overrated???

What this poll boils down to is the players who aren't on the Yankees being sour grapes towards them.  People see how much money guys are making and they get jealous.  It's natural.  But being properly rated isn't all about money.  Sure it's a determining factor, but you still have to look at the production, and for the most part, the production of these 4 supposedly overrated Yankees doesn't support the claim of their overratedness.  Overpaid?  Sure, I'll buy that argument.  But not overrated.  Grow up, MLB guys.  Don't be haters just because you aren't lucky enough to be on the team with the most money.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

The $900,000 Man Comes Through Again

(Not gonna lie, I kinda want to hug the guy too.  Courtesy of The AP)

How's this for a stat line:

9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 103 P (71 strikes)

If you would have told me I'd be getting that line from a 38-year-old Bartolo Colon in a start on the West Coast in late May, I would have asked for the phone number of your drug dealer.  At this point, there is no debate anymore, no other way to say it.  The guy has been flat out money.  He has been worth the 900k the Yankees shelled out to get him and then some after just 8 starts!

For a change of pace this season, Joe actually made a decision about his pitching staff that worked out when he decided to flip CC and Colon's spots in the rotation after last week's off day.  And boy did it work out.  CC's outing on Sunday was a tough act to follow but Colon blew it out of the water yesterday with an extra day's rest.  He absolutely owned the outside corner with his fastball, consistently getting ahead in the count (first-pitch strikes against 23 of 30 batters faced) and then putting guys away thanks to his pinpoint command.  As has been the case in his strong outings, he never lost any velocity as the game wore on, and Joe followed up one good decision with another by letting him go out for the 9th inning and finish the game.

There's really nothing left to say about what Colon has done this year and how smart Cash was for monitoring him and then having the faith in what he saw to sign the guy.  Every time he steps on the mound, I feel like more of a jackass for all the negative ranting and raving I did back in January and February.  But with the kind of results Colon has put up, I don't mind looking like a jackass.  I mean, a 3.26/3.35/2.91 tripleslash and 1.3 WAR in just 11 outings?  For less than a mil???  That's highway robbery of the highest order.

If anybody needs me, I'll be going back through my earlier posts where I made fun of Colon's moobs and slapping myself.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

The Big Man Gets It Done

After sleepwalking through 2 consecutive textbook Yankee losses, the Bombers needed Carsten to come through today to not make it a lost weekend.  In short, he did.

8 innings of 1-run ball, giving the offense plenty of chances to find itself, which it did, and the Yanks leave Seattle with 1 win.  They still have work to do to get to my previously stated acceptable 5-4 record on this road trip, but that work is a lot easier to do from 1-2 than 0-3.

P.S.- cue the opt-out talk again after tonight's outing.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Ugh, Do You Hear That Awful Sound?

"You fahckin' New Yawk quee-yahs did nawt believe in the powah of Red Sawx Nation!  Everybody doubted us and ow-uh ability to ovahcome awbstacles and make it back to the prawmised land, but we fachkin' did it so fahck you!!

And I'm nawt tawlking about the Bruins, even though they ahh the best.  I'm tawlking about the fahckin' hahht and soul of ow-uh city, the fahckin' Saaaawwwwwx, baby!  Back in first place where they fahckin' bee-lawng.  It's been a lawng, hahhd road back from the 0-6 stahht, but the scrappiness and grit of this team has ovahcome everything else to get back to the tawp.

It just goes to show what hahht and detehhmination (and $170 million dollahs) will get you.  And those fahckin' Yankee faggots ahh going down!"

When the first thing on the ESPN bottom scroll is "Sox move into first place for first time this season" over a Game 7, you know it's going to be an even bigger celebration in Boston.  It's days like today that I'm thankful I moved to the midwest.

Friday, May 27, 2011

AB4AR Pre-Memorial Day Weekend Linkapalooza

Just like last year, I'll be traveling to good old Baltimore (recently voted 8th most dangerous city in the US.  SCORE!) for the NCAA Lacrosse Championships this weekend.  That being the case, my updates on the site could be few and far between over the next 4 days.  So to tie you, dear readers, over until I make my gallant return, here's another hot lap around the Yankosphere.

- 3460kuri of Pinstipe Alley wonders why Joe continues to platoon Brett Gardner against lefties when the numbers suggest he shouldn't. As usual, you can't argue with the numbers. But you can argue with Joe's logic. What else is new?

- Larry Koestler of TYA breaks down Nick Swisher's awful start to the season from pretty much every angle. I'd say a little more luck and a little less swinging at bad pitches should help the situation, no?

- Matt Warden of TYA has a hilarious flow chart that perfectly lays out where to point the finger when the Yankees lose.  I imagine most of the typical Yankee callers into WFAN have this printed out and hanging up somewhere in their homes already.

- Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible looks at how Buster Posey's unfortunate situation could affect the Yankees' plans with their horde of catchers.  My favorite part was when he mentioned trading Cervelli.

- Mike Axisa of RAB has top prospect Slade Heathcott's K and BB rates charted out for his pro career to date.  Lot to like there.

- Speaking of prospects, Tamar Chalker of IIATMS has a new prospect profile on Adam Warren.  If he keeps pitching like he did earlier this week, Warren could be next in line for a call up when a spot starter is needed.

- First of 2 from William at The Captain's Blog.  This one from Wednesday examines the recent offensive scuffles.

- And this one from yesterday is a trip down memory lane, all the way back to Mariano's first career appearance.  Way to gun that one up to 88, William.

- Last is a recommended must-read to any Yankee fan.  It's David Cone's recent interview with New York Magazine.  In it, he discusses everything from advanced stats to his take on the Jorge situation to his affinity for motorcycles.  David Cone is never not entertaining.

So that's it for today.  Maybe I'll get on a computer to follow up on the weekend series with Seattle, maybe not.  If not, everybody enjoy their Memorial Day weekend.

AB4AR Prospect Roundup

(PROSPECT!!!!)

Everybody knows I love me some Yankee prospects.  But if you read the blog enough, you also know that I don't devote as much time to following the Yankee MiL system as other sites.  Basically that's because I don't have the time or the resources to devote to that coverage, but that doesn't mean I still don't follow the comings and goings of the system.  So here's my belated quick run through of some of the standouts, both good and bad, for each team so far.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees:

Pleasant Surprise- Jorge Vazquez

Already 29, Vazquez has been a constant source of power all season.  His .960 OPS and 17 HR leads the team, and his .403 wOBA is very good.  Vazquez's big issue is his 28.9% K rate, which pretty much makes him an "all or nothing" type player.  But that doesn't take away from his monster production so far.  If only he were 24...

Not So Pleasant Surprise- Brandon Laird

After raking in Double-A last season, Laird was a dark horse candidate to make the MaL roster coming into ST in 2011.  He hasn't been able to replicate that success this year, however, hitting just .244/.281/.340 with just 10 XBH so far.  He has been better so far in May than in April, but he still has some work to do to re-establish himself as a serious prospect.

The Rest-

Adam Warren, David Phelps, and D.J. Mitchell have all pitched well in the rotation, with Warren throwing 8 1-run innings in his most recent outing.  Justin Maxwell has 21 XBH and an .885 OPS to go along with his 68 Ks.  The Jesus, while not mashing quite the way we'd all like to see, is still holding his own with a .308/.343/.417 tripleslash.  Kevin Whelan is filling J-Alba's shoes nicely as the closer.

Double-A Trenton Thunder

Pleasant Surprise- Tim Norton

Norton has picked up right where he left out last season, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and 2.37 FIP in 24 innings so far this season, striking out 36 batters.  He doesn't get a lot of ink because of the higher-profile names on the pitching staff, but at 28, Norton is making a name for himself as a potential future relief option.

Not So Pleasant Surprise- Melky Mesa

The kid is still striking out like a mofo, posting a 33.8% K rate so far this year.  Combine that with a .673 OPS and he continues to be a question mark moving forward.

The Rest-

The other 2/3 of the Killer Bs are performing well (1.30 ERA, 10.12 K/9 in 7 starts for Betances.  1.96,8.35 in 8 starts for ManBan), and with Shaeffer Hall pitching well and Graham Stoneburner rehabbing, the rotation is still the best in Double-A on paper.  At the plate, Austin Romine (.754 OPS) and Corban Joseph (.753) are leading the charge.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Fred Wilpon FINALLY Makes A Good Decision

I'd like to talk about how much of an idiot Fred Wilpon is, but that's already abundantly clear to everybody who follows baseball or anybody who is sad and pathetic enough to be a Mets fan.  So instead of wasting everybody's time and my typing effort, I'd like to take the opportunity, in honor of today's good news that the Mets are selling a minority stake in the team to a guy named Einhorn, to play this clip and laugh once again at the Mets expense.



OK.  I'm done now.  Carry on.

Looking At The Soriano-Less Bullpen

(Could we see a new face out here soon?  Do we need to see one?)

It would not be an unfair statement to say that Rafael Soriano was the hole in the Yankee bullpen before he was put on the DL last week.  But now that the results of his Dr. Andrews have come back and we know he's going to be on the shelf for a while, it's also fair to state that, as bad as he has been, there is still potentially a hole in the 'pen without him.  Heading into tomorrow's game, here's what the Yankee bullpen looks like:

- Mariano Rivera- 1.71/1.71/2.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 7.29 K/9
- Dave Robertson- 1.42/2.11/3.01, 14.21
- Joba Chamberlain- 3.33/3.60/2.80, 7.40
- Boone Logan- 3.75/4.07/4.51, 5.25
- Luis Ayala- 1.50/3.49/3.54, 6.75
- Hector Noesi- 1.29/3.47/5.11, 5.14
- Lance Pendleton- 0.00/2.90/5.39, 3.68

While the end of games looks to still be in good hands with Mo, D-Rob, and Joba, the middle innings are a bit of question mark right now.  Sure, the Yankees have gotten good results from Noesi and Pendleton, but those results have come from a total of just 14.1 innings pitched over 7 appearances and the higher FIP and xFIP values of those 2 combined with low K/9 results suggest that some lucky BABIP values and good defense behind them has something to do with the results.  Over the long haul, these numbers might start to look uglier as the law of averages sets in.

The lefty spots in the 'pen have also been, and could continue to be, a question mark.  Boone Logan's overall body of work might look adequate, but when you consider that he's the #1 lefty specialist out of the bullpen and has a .323/.382/.484 tripleslash against in 31 at-bats vs.lefties, it's clear that he's been far from a sure thing at his job.  And Ayala's numbers, while strong, have come in just 12 innings, and counting on him to replicate what he's already done over the rest of the season would be a risky venture.

In general, though, this group gives the Yankees plenty of flexibility for the time being.  They have their 7th, 8th, and 9th inning roles clearly defined (just the way Joe likes them), they have 2 lefties who can be used for a batter or 2 or an inning + if needed, and in Noesi and Pendleton they have 2 guys who can fill in for multiple leveraged middle-relief innings, garbage time innings, or be stretched out in extras as Noesi was in his first appearance.  Every conceivable situation is covered, and with the rotation consistently providing at least 5-7 innings and sometimes more, there is little risk of anybody getting overworked.

The decision the Yankees need to make is whether or not they are comfortable with this group moving forward for the foreseeable future.  Outside of their 3 top guys, there really isn't a lot of swing-and-miss stuff out there and if nothing else, there are guys in Triple-A who could potentially provide that.  Kevin Whelan (9.15 K/9), Ryan Pope (9.53), George Kontos (9.25), and Andy Sisco (9.42) could all bring a little more OOMPH to the Yankee 'pen, but some multiple-inning flexibility would have to be sacrificed by sending either Noesi or Pendleton down to accommodate one of these 4.

For the time being, I see the Yankees sticking with what they have and continuing to make moves to replenish a multi-inning arm as needed.  If somebody does start to fall off a cliff, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the lower-leverage guys (probably Pendleton) sent down in exchange for a more powerful arm.  My money would be on either Whelan or Pope.

Another Milestone For Mo

1,000 career games is impressive in any sport.  To play in that many games is a testament to a player's talent, health, and commitment.  To play 1,000 career games for one team is even more impressive because it points to a relationship between a player and team that goes beyond just business.  It shows a mutual respect and understanding that player and organization have for each other, something that is rare in today's sports world of free agency, trades, and everything coming down to dollars and cents.

Last night, Mariano Rivera became the first pitcher in Major League history to appear in 1,000 games for one team.  For a guy who is running out of records to break and needs no more recognition of his undeniable greatness, Mo got another opportunity to be recognized last night.  And at 41, when he should be sitting at home, he didn't achieve this milestone as a fading former star hanging on by a thread who was just thrown out there to get the number.  He achieved it the same way he has achieved almost all of his career appearances, by coming into the game in the 9th inning and pitching a shutout frame to preserve a win for his team.  Congratulations, Mo.  On 1,000 jobs well done.

I've slobbered all over the guy plenty on this blog, and I will continue to do so until he retires because, with all due respect to Bret Hart, Mo is the best there is, the best there was, and the best there ever will be.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Shaking Up The Sh*t List

It's been almost a month since I last updated the Official AB4AR Shit List (in case you don't scroll down the page enough to see it on the sidebar), so it's time to tighten that up, set a ranking system, and issue ranks based on latest goings-on by the list members.

New List:

1) Rafael Soriano- He's a dick, he hasn't pitched well since Opening Day, he's robbing the team blind with that contract, and now he's probably going on the shelf for the rest of the season.

2) Randy Levine- A key cog in bringing Soriano to The Bronx.  Still hasn't learned that he doesn't know a thing about baseball and should leave Cash to his own devices.

3) Joe's Bunting Strategy**- Newest member of the List, Joe's mismanagement of his bullpen is succeeded only by his never-ending desire to continue to play old-school NL baseball with his lineup and sacrifice outs for the chance to score 1 friggin' run.

4) Joe's Match-Up Binder- We haven't seen it much lately, but he's still too married to situations and pre-defined roles instead of watching the game and trusting his guys.

5) Damaso Marte- Is he even still alive?

6) Kei Igawa- Getting paid MILLIONS to pitch in Double-A.  Awesome.

7) Nick Johnson- I think I'm almost over the latest Johnson fiasco.  He always got hurt, I knew he was going to get hurt, and I shouldn't have been so upset that he got hurt.

So there's the latest list.  You'll notice that a certain Mr. A.J. Burnett no longer appears anywhere.  He hasn't done anything eye popping, but in fairness to the guy, he hasn't been horrible, he's giving his team a chance to win on a consistent basis, and a 4.02/4.50/3.95 tripleslash is not worthy of my hatred.  So he's off.  For now...

Soriano To Visit Dr. Andrews, Cash's Feelings About The Signing Vindicated

Just to review, here's how Rafael Soriano's Yankee career has gone to date:

- Signed a 3-year/$35 million deal on January 13, 2011, chock full of opt out clauses.

- Reported to Spring Training in February, acts like a dick, refuses to pitch against AL East teams

- Put up a 5.40/4.96/5.94 ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash in 16 outings, with his only 1-2-3 inning being on Opening Day, before being shut down with elbow problems.

- Threw his teammates under the bus when asked about how it felt to not be pitching against division rivals on May 16.

- Was put on the DL, retroactive to May 14, on May 18 because of the continued elbow problems.

- Went for an MRI yesterday, got bad results, and is now scheduled to go visit Dr. James Andrews for the elbow, signifying the likelihood of a significant injury and a significant chunk of time to be missed, at the very least.

Not exactly the type of resume that would inspire YES to start putting together Raffy's "Yankeeography."  You can trace the history back to January and find that I have, admittedly gone back and forth on how I felt about the Soriano signing.  Those feelings have obviously transitioned exclusively to the negative side since the guy actually started pitching in pinstripes, and I'm not going to waste any more time talking about how awful he's been or stating the obvious point that the deal looks terrible now that he's gotten hurt and could be out for the year.  I will just refer back to Cash's comments during Soriano's introductory press conference:

"I didn't recommend it [the deal], just because I didn't think it was an efficient way to allocate the remaining resources we have... 

... It's all the other stuff wrapped around the deal, the money, allocating closer type money to an eighth-inning guy, those type of things." 

And this is why Brian Cashman should be making the baseball decisions and Hank and Randy Levine should just stay up in their offices and make stupid statements to the press.  Cash knew what the risks and downsides of this signing were, Hank and Randy ignored them.  Cash knows what he's doing, these other 2 don't.  Now the Yanks might be on the hook for a big chunk of money next year if Soriano is done for the year.

In Cash we trust.

A Little Pie For Breakfast

(Teck-SHARE-uh gets him some.  Courtesy of Getty Images.)

Why the hell not?!  Like Bruce Willis' chick from "Pulp Fiction" says, "any time of day is a good time for pie."  That theory holds doubly true on a night when the offense finally picked up CC for a change.

P.S.- Can we officially declare C-Grand the starting CF in the All-Star Game yet?

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

The Morning Analogy Comes Full Circle

The first 7 innings weren't pretty.  Lots of untimely 4s, not getting 1s when they needed them, and more than a few cases of the Sorry! card being pulled when things started looking up.  But then the Yanks got a few men into Home in the 8th and in the 9th C-Grand drew a 2 with his clutch RBI single, stole second, and got the backwards 4 that he and the team needed in the form of Teix's walk-off RBI single.  There were no homers, nothing for the MSM to squawk about, just good, solid baseball when it mattered the most.

Hey, Toronto!

I Wish I Was As Positive As Nick Swisher

(We need this guy back again.)

There's no other way to say it than to just state facts and say that Nick Swisher has sucked the big one so far this year.  His wOBA currently sits at .291, he's hitting .171/.296/.220 with RISP, and his OPS of .633 is actually lower than the Jorge/Jeter standard of sucktitude right now.  And while he hasn't been selfish enough to flat out refuse to play when demoted in the lineup, he has been benched for the last 2 games for Chris Dickerson.  If I were doing that poorly at my job that my manager asked me to not come into to work, to stay at home while they brought in a college intern to handle my responsibilities, I'd be looking at life through the haze of a case of Miller Lite right now.  But not Swish.  The dude is just too damn positive for words.

“It kind of seems like when you’re struggling, it seems like a lot of people have opinions on what you should do and what you shouldn’t do.  But I know my guy’s K-Long, and he’s going to tell me everything I need to do. I know if I listen to him and do the things he tells me, I’ll be right back where I need to be...

Whether I get to the same numbers I did last year, I’m going to bust my ass to get back there, and more.  That’s kind of my philosophy all the time. Sometimes you run into rough patches, and you learn a lot about yourself. I’m going to keep grinding, keep fighting, make sure I get weights in, make sure I’m getting my extra hitting in, doing all the things I have to to make myself better.” (quotes via LoHud)

And that right there is why I can't hate on Swish for being so terrible this year, as much as I'd like to.  He doesn't make excuses, he doesn't feel sorry for himself, and he doesn't spit the same tired old cliches back at you that Jeter would if he were the one struggling.  He stays positive, puts his work in, and waits for his chance to redeem himself.  And he still never takes a play off when he is in the lineup.  Dude is out there giving it 100% every day.  Good for you, Swish.  Hopefully we see you back in the lineup tonight and hopefully you get a few hits to start getting back in a groove.  For the sake of your 2012 option, you better.

George Willis Joins The AB4AR "SPST" Club

Well here's some good news for the dopes at ESPNNY.  They're getting a new member of their little club, yay!  This morning in The Post, George Willis all but officially declared Bartolo Colon's comeback over based on last night's bad 6th inning.  Read the whole thing if you want, but be advised- Make sure you don't have any coffee in your mouth when you do, otherwise it's going to end up all over your monitor and keyboard when you see some of this astounding stupidity.

"On a day when Bartolo Colon tired to continue his Cinderella story as the Yankees' surprise of the season... "

I'm going to come right out and pick nits here.  Bartolo Colon is not a "Cinderella" story. Cinderella was a young, unappreciated chick who never got her opportunity to shine and show what she could do. Players who fall into a "Cinderella story" category would be similar in background to that.  Colon is a veteran athlete who has had heaps of success in the past over his career, has been broken down by injuries, and has now experienced a revival later in his career thanks to a medical procedure.   There's nothing Cinderella about him.  If you're going to be cliche about the situation, at least get your Disney princess references right.

"Colon's revival took a nosedive last night when he gave up five runs in the sixth inning as the Blue Jays claimed a 7-3 win over the Yankees in the first of their three-game series at the Stadium."

That's right, a nosedive.  Because if there is anything that baseball has taught us over the years, it's that one bad inning is the end of a pitcher's career.  And if there are 2 things that baseball has taught us, it's that we should not discuss how well Colon was pitching in the preceding 5 innings last night or how stellar his overall body of work has been this season.  The only thing that matters is the one bad inning.

/looks up Colon's FanGraphs page, sees current 2.93 xFIP, poops in envelope to send to Willis

"Until the sixth inning, Colon was a walking advertisement for Liriano and his fellow physicians... "

But after the sixth inning?  Walking advertisement for how stupid the Yankees were for even considering signing him in the first place.  Guy is a piece of trash.  "Get freakin' Colon outta heeah!"

/typical NY stereotype voice calling into WFAN 

"But it all went wrong in the sixth, beginning with a lead-off double to right-field by Corey Patterson."

And the matter was made worse by Joe Girardi's decision to intentionally walk Juan Rivera later in the inning.  The same Juan Rivera who currently rocks a .228/.319/.331 tripleslash.  The call to put another potential run on base by walking arguably the worst hitter on the other team has nothing to do with Colon's bad inning.  Nothing at all.  The glass slipper just fell off and now he's turned back into a pumpkin.

You can hang the unintentional 4-pitch walk to Thames on Colon, and then following meatball for the bases clearing double wasn't good.  But don't sweep the fact that his manager made another bad call to put more runners on base under the rug.

"Colon's line was brutal: seven hits and six earned runs in six innings."

So brutal.  No pitcher in the history of the game has ever put up a line that bad.  And it's even worse because (looks around and whispers) he's OOOOOOOOLD.

For the record, Yankee starting pitchers have accumulated a total of 4 outings where they threw fewer than 7 innings and allowed more than 6 earned runs this season.  CC has 1, A.J. has 1, Phil Hughes has 1 (plus 2 more where he gave up 5+ ER in < 5 IP), and Colon has 1.  And Ivan Nova has thrown a few stinkers early too.  It happens.

"Maybe this subpar performance will quiet the growing commotion about the treatment Colon received for his shoulder."



Seriously, what commotion?  The story came out 2 weeks ago, it was a story for about a day and a half and it's been a dead issue since then.

"Still, Colon's performances are being watched by all of baseball wanting to know how a veteran pitcher, who was 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA the last time he pitched in 2009 and hasn't appeared in more than 10 games since 2005, could pitch like he did when he won the AL Cy Young in 2005 with the Angels."

Ummmm, they still haven't figured out how he's been able to do this?  Maybe because he received stem cell injections into his shoulder to try to revive it and that increased shoulder strength has allowed him to regain the form he had earlier in his career?  I thought that was made relatively clear already.  And why would/should anybody be shocked that a guy who has had great stuff and has been an All Star and Cy Young winner in the past could pitch well when he's healthy?  That seems like a no-brainer to me.

"If everything checks out clean, this stem-cell treatment could be the biggest thing for baseball since Tommy John surgery. Colon will give every pitcher with a sore shoulder and an aging birth certificate hope."

Bartolo Colon: Symbol of Hope for the unwashed, sore-shouldered masses.  He's like the Jesus Christ of aging pitchers.

And what the hell is an aging birth certificate?  That term doesn't make any sense to me.  Just call them old.

"But let's not call it a miracle cure just yet. Not after last night."

Let's not call it a miracle cure at all because it wasn't a miracle.  It was a medical procedure that has been tested, evaluated, and experimented with multiple times across the medical field.

And even if it was a miracle, last night's one bad inning would do nothing to lessen the miracle.  The guy had a bad inning.  He made a few bad pitches and it cost him.  But that doesn't take away from what he's done this year for the Yankees.  He's pitching to a 3.77/3.60/2.93 ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash with 8.79 K/9 and a 1.07 WHIP.  He has already been worth way more than the 900 grand the Yankees signed him for and has made Brian Cashman look like a genius for making that deal.  One bad inning doesn't change that, nor does one bad outing.

It's obvious George Willis needed to fill space, had nothing to write about, and so he grasped at the one straw he could.  Unfortunately for him, that straw wasn't worth grasping and unfortunately for him, I read his story today.  Shut the hell up, George Willis.  Leave the doom and gloom to the idiots who call into Joe & Evan and Wallace Matthews.

A Perfect Comparison For The Yankees Right Now

(No, that's not the cover of Joe's bullpen binder.)

Everybody remembers playing the board game "Sorry!" as a kid, right?  Did anybody else get as frustrated as I did trying to play that?  It seemed like a game of strategy and planning, where if you made the right calls here or there you could win easily.  But it basically came down to a game of random luck because of the cards you had to draw.  Sure, you could try to move a piece around quickly after drawing the 2 and then an 11 on your draw again, but then you could get caught up with a 3, a 1, and the dreaded 4 (which you had to move backwards) on your next 3 draws.  You could try to leave a piece right on your start area after taking it out and hope to get the 4 to move back and set yourself up to get into the safety zone, but then the 4 would never come.  Everybody else would get the damn things and eventually you would have no choice but to start moving the piece around the board because you were out of options.  And even when everything looked like it was falling your way, you had 3 pieces in Home and the 4th just outside the Safety Zone, you would get screwed on a draw where you drew too high to move the piece in and sure enough, the next player drew a goddamn "Sorry!" card and kicked your ass back to start.

That's kinda what the Yankees are right now; a game of "Sorry!"  They look like they have all the pieces in place and when things are going their way they look great.  But then they hit a rough patch of bad cards (failure to get hits with RISP, bullpen blowing leads, errors in the field) and suddenly they're losing games that they should have won.  They get a killer 2/12 combo to move a piece way out around the board (big 1st inning), and then slowly move the piece all the way around because of bad draws (GIDPs, pop ups on the infield by Teix, Cano swinging at the first pitch).  And then sometimes out of nowhere, they get 4 or 5 good draws in a row and the game is over before you know what happened (8th inning against the Mets on Sunday).  Whatever the situation is, it's been a frustrating series of inconsistencies, bad luck, and bad strategic moves that has the Yankees unable to establish a solid winning streak.  And don't even get me started on Joe and his inability to properly split a 7.

P.S.- Just to keep this analogy going a little longer, Colon's implosion in the 6th inning last night was the equivalent of having somebody pull a "Sorry!" card on you late in the game when you're the only piece on the board and they have the only piece still in the start area.  Just devastating.

P.P.S.- Why were there no 6s or 9s in Sorry!?  What was that about?  Were they really that worried about people being confused?  Can't tell you how many times I could have moved from just outside the Safety Zone straight into home if I could have drawn a damn 6.