Monday, May 16, 2011

And It Just Gets Worse

- 0-4 for Teix

- 0-4 with 3 Ks for The Horse

- 30 combined pitches seen in 8 at-bats between the 2 goobers mentioned above.

- A.J. surrendering a 4-run lead in the 6th inning, capped off by giving up a 2-run homer to B.J. Upton.

- Eduardo Nunez continued to embarrass himself, his family, and the Yankee organization in the field by committing his 6th error of the season.

- Yankees lose their 6th in a row, the longest winless streak of Joe Girardi's tenure.

On the positive side, C-Grand hit another home run and Joba managed to not give up any home runs to extend the deficit in the 8th inning.  But that's really just grasping at straws right now.

No Worries, Everybody. It's All Good Now

Derek Jeter even said so today after he, Hal, Cash, and Randy Levine had a conference call earlier.

"We are all on the same page." - Jeter

See?  They're all on the same page.  Everything is fine.  We have nothing to worry about.  All the problems have been solved.  Except that Girardi wasn't on the conference call and probably should have been, nobody knows what the conference call was about, Jorge STILL hasn't apologized to his teammates, and Hal and Randy Levine should never be involved with any baseball-related conference call because they don't know shit about baseball!

But hey, they're all on the same page.  Too bad it's Page 13 of this book:


ZING!!!  Take that, guys.



Now seriously.  Cut the crap with all this behind-the-scenes garbage and get back to focusing on fixing the real problem.  That being the horrible play on the field.

Yanks-Sox/PosadaGate Weekend Recap Linkapalooza

I feel like I did a pretty good job of letting my feelings on the matters be known during last night's live blog, and quite frankly, I'm too tired today to muster up some more commentary.  So instead I'll just take a quick lap around the Yankosphere to get everybody else's take.

- Joel Sherman of The Post touches on the Posada issue being only the tip of the iceberg of Yankee problems right now.

- Mike Vacarro has a piece on the "should vs. will" dynamic of a Yankee turnaround.  That's a fair argument to make when you look at the team's age.

- Lisa of Subway Squawkers has a post on everything that was wrong about what Jorge did and why the fans were wrong for cheering him last night.  There wasn't a single word in her whole piece that I didn't completely agree with.

- Brien of IIATMS, on the other hand, wrote about why it was right to cheer for Posada, and while I can see his point, I have to disagree.  You just don't cheer lack of effort and lack of commitment, regardless of past history.

- SJK at NoMaas came up with this very well done photographic summary of the whole Jorge ordeal:


A tip of the cap to you, sir.  And nicely done on the "Jeter GIDP" tracker on the sidebar.

- Not to be outdone, Jimmie Reese at It Is High... had his own fun ragging on Teix for his recent infatuation with popping up in every other at-bat.  I would laugh more at that if it wasn't so pathetic and true.

- Larry Koestler at TYA actually analyzed and wrote about something troubling ON the field, that being The Horse's continued struggles at the plate.  And Larry does a hell of a job looking at this from every possible angle.

- Chad from LoHud quickly touches on the situation the Yankees have gotten themselves into by offering the recent long-term deals to Posada and Jeter.

- And just to top things off, Buster Olney at ESPN is reporting that the Yankees are now mad at Captain Jeter  for his reaction and response to the Jorge debacle.  Good to know this situation is behind us, right?

Maybe later tonight I'll muster up the energy to comment on some of this further.  Or maybe I'll just move on to complaining about how the Yankees got snuffed by David Price.  I guess that's up to the boys and how they decide to play tonight.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

AB4AR Yanks-Sox "Let's Get It Together" Series Finale Live Blog

I've got a stomach full of McDonald's, a fridge full of beer, a mind full of concerns about the current state of the team, and a heart full of hope that tonight will be the night the Yankees start turning this recent poor string of games around.  All that adds up to the perfect formula for a live blog opportunity.

First, an update on the upstanding clubhouse leader formerly known as Whore-Gay Posada.  No, he's not in the lineup tonight, but with lefty Jon Lester on the mound and Jorge's 0-24 performance against lefties this year, that's not surprising.  Jorge did say to the media that he apologized to Joe today when he arrived at the clubhouse.  Next up is an apology to the rest of his teammates for bailing on them yesterday.  But we'll talk about that more this coming week.

Here's tonight's lineup:

1) Derek Jeter- SS
2) Curtis Granderson- CF
3) Mark Teixeira- 1B
4) Alex Rodriguez- 3B
5) Robinson Cano- 2B
6) Nick Swisher- RF
7) Andruw Jones- DH
8) Russell Martin- C
9) Brett Gardner- LF

SP) Freddy Garcia- RHP

There's a lot of turmoil in the clubhouse right now and not a lot of sterling play on the field to inspire confidence, but I'm going in with the happy face on tonight.  Hopefully the boys can get it together, rough up Lester early, and keep that smile there all night.

Live Blog Tonight

8PM Eastern, 7PM Central.  Be there to share in the continued frustration created by the Yankees and their lackluster play.  I'd like to say tonight is the night they break out of this funk, but with Jon Lester on the mound you never know.

I will say this right now as a fair warning.  If they come out and lay an egg again like they did last night, the live blog will be filled with a lot of this:

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Low Point? Low Point.

Tonight was the culmination of the recent Yankee team-wide shittiness, and as much as I'd like to be calm and rational and logical about it, I just can't.  The team has played sloppy, lazy, lifeless, horseshit baseball for 2+ weeks now and there has been little to no signs of things getting better.  Joe called a team meeting after last night's loss and instead of turning things around tonight, the team came out and laid down and died again, falling 6-0 to Fraud Sawx Nation.  If they were a tree in the forest, you wouldn't have to ask if anybody heard them fall tonight because they went down quieter than Helen Keller in her sleep.

And this whole Jorge Posada situation is a complete shitshow.  Joe demotes Posada in the lineup, which is perfectly justifiable given Jorge's performance so far this season.  Only Jorge doesn't like it so he decides to tell Joe he isn't playing tonight.  Jorge's wife scrambles and tweets that he had back stiffness even as comments from Cash are coming out that don't point to any injury being mentioned or being the cause for Jorge's absence in the lineup, and then after this crap heap of a game Jorge decides to state that he had a stiff back and didn't tell anybody about it.  Classless, childish, selfish, unprofessional, take your pick.  For a player who has been as solid all around as Jorge throughout his career, this was pretty low.

There are issues simmering beneath the surface of this Yankee team right now, and they are clearly having a big time negative effect on the team.  They aren't hitting worth a damn in any situation, their pitching has either been solid from the rotation and horrible from the 'pen or vice versa, and there are no signs of intensity from anybody.

The clubhouse leaders aren't getting it done, Joe's not getting it done, nobody is fucking getting it done right now and it's downright pathetic.

** Note- This rant was written after about a dozen beers and a handful of shots.  So take that however you want. **

Slade Heathcott Had An Interesting Friday

First there was a story from the Post and Courier that ran yesterday that shed light on some of the details of Heathcott's troubled past.  I have to admit that I didn't know ANY of Heathcott's backstory other than the mentioning of "character issues," so this was a very interesting read and I would suggest that anybody who didn't check it out from the link on the AB4AR Facebook page yesterday do so today.

But that was just the beginning.  While the Yankees were stumbling over their own feet again in losing to the Fraud Sawx, Heath and his Charleston River Dogs teammates were taking on the Boston Low-A affiliate, the Greenville Drive, and things picked up when Heathcott was hit by a pitch and then turned and decked the Greenville catcher, sparking a bench-clearing brawl.  Check the video below.



Three things on this:

1) It would be silly to assume that there wasn't some connection between the story of Heathcott's past struggles coming out yesterday and this fight breaking out after he was hit.  The catcher more than likely was talking smack and probably made a comment about the story that Heathcott took offense too.  And while Heathcott was certainly in the wrong for turning around and trying to punch the guy, and deserves whatever suspension he will get, I like the fact that he stood up for himself and liked the fact that there was actually somebody in the Yankee organization showing some fight yesterday.

2) These 2 event will no doubt spark all kinds of debate about Heathcott's makeup and how stupid the Yankees were in investing the kind of money they did in a guy who clearly "doesn't have it together," but that's all crap.  If you go back and read the story from the P&C, Heathcott is, by all accounts, a good person and has already made great strides in becoming a better person and a better ball player.  This fight should serve as another valuable life lesson for him moving forward and I hope he uses it to continue to improve on his path to the Majors.

3) Regardless of whether or not people think Heathcott was out of line, and he was, that's a terrible job by his teammates in coming to his defense once things went down.  The Drive were practically pig piling on the guy and trying to cheap shot him while he was on the ground.  Check out #33 trying to kick Heathcott while he's being held on the ground at the 16-17-second mark and then #24 coming out of the pile with Heathcott in a standing guillotine choke at the 29-second mark.  Call me a Yankee homer if you want, but those 2 should get some significant suspension time for those moves as well.  But if you're on the River Dogs and you're going to come out of the dugout and the 'pen in that situation, you need to help your teammate.  Don't just stand around trying to hold everybody back.  Get in there and do something!

And Slade, I feel for ya, buddy.  While I didn't start a bench-clearing brawl or get kicked or choked, I did get tossed from my HS lacrosse game that I was coaching last night.  Getting ejected sucks, no matter the circumstances.  Keep your head up, dude.  Learn from this and move forward.

Site's Still Not Fixed

There were some technical issues with the blog on Friday, issues that apparently still haven't been resolve, and as a result I'm still missing some of my latest posts from Wednesday and Thursday.  God only knows if this is actually going to be posted and viewable.  But in any case, last night's game sucked.  A good start by Colon wasted by Joba and the continued shitty offense.  If I have to watch Nick Swisher smile and shake his head after striking out on a bad pitch again, I might kill myself.

And Jorge?  You're done, dude.  Somebody get Montero up here now.

** If Blogger manages to get their shit together, be on the look out for a live blog on Sunday night. **

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

I Guess The Bullpen Was OK Last Night


BAM!!  Who needs the 35 Million Dollar Manbitch when you've got The Fireman and The Starting Pitcher Formerly Known as Joba on the case.  Dudes were straight up lights out last night and have been looking better each time they're on the mound.  D-Rob continues to shine as the clean up guy in messy situations (18 Ks in 13.1 IP) and Joba is quietly rounding into a form similar to what we saw when he first came up (17 Ks in 18 IP, 3.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, hit 98 on the gun last night).

These 2 are holding up their end of the bargain right now, and Mo is back to being Mo after his usual early-season hiccup.  If Soriano gets it together and Boone Logan can establish some consistency in actually getting lefties out, the Nasty Boys comparison could be selling this group too low.


Sorry, don't have a Joba Photoshop yet.  Gonna have to get Duckson working on that.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Melkman Returns Tonight

(You're out, bro.)

After a career year in 2009, Melky Cabrera was not brought back by the Yankees, who instead chose to upgrade their outfield by adding Curtis Granderson and installing Brett Gardner as the everyday left fielder.  That decision has worked out well for the Yankees, as Gardner was solid all around last year and C-Grand seems to have recaptured his Tiger All Star magic under the swing treatment program of Dr. Long, while the Melkman was arguably one of, if not the worst, OF in baseball last year with the Braves.

This year he has experienced a bit of a resurgence in KC, currently sitting at .283/.305/.441 with 15 XBH, 22 R, 21 RBI, and a .331 wOBA.  Those numbers more than likely won't hold up over the long haul as his current .317 BABIP should regress back below .300 and closer to his .280s career average, but it's still a good start for Melky and it's good to see him have some success when it looked like he could be bagging groceries after last year's .294 wOBA/-0.9 WAR 2010 campaign.

Melky was a fun player to have around during his time in pinstripes, and despite his deficiencies as a baseball player, he did provide some spark and some memorable moments while he was a member of the Yankees.  I don't miss him, I don't want him back at the expense of any of the 4 current Yankee outfielders, but it's good that he is still in the game and personally I think it would be good to see him back in The Stadium tonight if I could.  He came up through the system and he won a ring as a Yankee, and that's something that's never forgotten by Yankee fans.

P.S.- What are the odds Sterling delivers a "THE MELKMAN DELIVERS!!!" call if Melky manages to homer during the series?

Wallace Matthews Doesn't Understand Baseball

I've already checked in on one old friend today, so it only seems fitting to see what our old buddy Wallace Matthews is yammering about at ESPNNY.

"While a lot of Yankee fans have been clamoring for the promotion of Jesus Montero from AAA Scranton to the big club to supplant the struggling Jorge Posada as DH, nobody seems to be noticing that Justin Maxwell is leading the International League on homers (11) and RBI (24). Meanwhile Montero, despite his .354 batting average, has left the park just once and has only seven RBI. Also, Maxwell's .614 slugging percentage dwarfs Montero's .438. Maybe Maxwell's batting average has something to do with it; he is hitting just .238.

But in spring training, Montero bombed out both at the plate and behind it, while Maxwell,acquired from the Nationals in a trade of minor-leaguers, nearly made the final cut as a reserve outfielder."


 Wow.  Even by Wallace's incredibly low standards, this is just horrible.  I don't even know where to start, so I'll just dive right in with some bullet points.

- Justin Maxwell is a 27-year-old who has played a total of 122 Major League games in his career dating back to 2007.  He has essentially reached his ceiling.

- In those 122 career games, Maxwell has a .201/.319/.379 tripleslash, a .316 wOBA, and a 37.9% K rate.

- In the 3 seasons that he did get MaL time, Maxwell's K rates were 30.8% ('07), 36.0% ('09), and 41.3% ('10).  In short, as he gained experience at the MaL level, he struck out MORE.

- This year, in Triple-A, Maxwell's current K rate is 43.8%, almost 6 percentage points higher than his career MaL average.

- Maxwell's career BABIP is .271 at the MaL level, and just .277 this year at SWB.

- Jesus Montero is a 21-year-old who has yet to play in the Majors, but is ranked as the #3 overall prospect in baseball, has been compared to the likes of Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera, and his ceiling is unknown right now, but much higher than that of Maxwell.

- In his MiL career, Jesus is a .315/.370/.505 hitter with a wOBA in the .380s and a K rate below 20%.

- Jesus has never had a BABIP below .319 in his MiL career, and this year his BABIP currently sits at .407.

It's really quite simple when you look at it.  Justin Maxwell can't hit and Jesus Montero can.  Maxwell's career numbers, if you care to check, are a testament to that fact.  The guy has never been a big contact guy, has always been a big strikeout guy, and his numbers this season are completely in line with those trends except for this power boost.  That type of power, impressive as it is, will almost certainly not be sustained by Maxwell given his makeup.

Montero, on the other hand, has established himself as a consistent hitter who makes a lot of contact, makes solid contact, and can hit for power.  That's why he is the high-level prospect that he is, because he's a well-rounded hitter and he's a well-rounded hitter at an age where most guys are still trying to figure out how to hit offspeed stuff.  With that kind of solid base to work from, one would expect that Montero would be able to make adjustments and benefit from better coaching to become a very good Major League hitter.

Justin Maxwell swings and misses at everything in  Triple-A, so how the hell is he going to make an impact at the Major League level when he's facing Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren on a weekly basis?  Simple answer, he's not.  And that's why he's spent more time in the Minors than the Majors, that's why he's never stuck in a Major League lineup, and that's why nobody is clamoring to call him up to replace Jorge.

Get a clue, Wally, and look at more than just the HR and RBI columns the next time you try to statistically support an argument.

Hey, Jon!

Hey buddy!  How's it going?  Haven't talked to you in a while.  I just wanted to check in and see how things were.

I saw you on the TV last night, blowing a save.  That musta been a bummer, huh?  I know, I know, you must be wondering why I would ever waste my time watching you and the rest of you d-bag teammates.  Well it was an off day for the Yankees and I was channel surfing, and I saw you out there giving up the lead and I just couldn't turn that off.  Sure, your team came back and won the game in extras when Carl Crawford drove in his 8th run of the year and raised his tripleslash up to a scintillating .211/.250/.301 on the season, but you still blew the chance to win the game in regulation and get Josh Beckett the win he deserved.  That's gotta sting.

Anyway, I just wanted to say hey and let you know that I haven't forgotten about you.  It looks like your numbers are a little better to start this year than they were last year, but don't let that fool you.  You're still not that good, you're not Mariano and you never will be.  You're scary "stare in at the catcher" face still isn't scary at all.  You're still the same loudmouthed phony who completely blew the deciding game in the 2009 Divisional Series against Anaheim, and the same asshole who actually wore this shirt in public at some lame team dance-a-thon.


Good talking to you, chief.  Keep up the bad work.  Let me know when you guys and your scrappy $163 million payroll get back over .500.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Brett Gardner's Recent Resurgence

After April 25, Brett Gardner was sitting at .136/.190/.254.  He had lost the leadoff hitting role that he had been given out of ST, had 19 Ks to just 4 BB, and was looking completely helpless at the plate.  A lot of his issues could have been attributed to Gardner using his patience too much to the point that it was becoming a detriment to his approach.  He was taking too many strikes, getting himself behind in the count early, and then having no choice but to hack to try to stay alive.  Not being a particularly good curveball hitter, it doesn't take a genius to figure out where all the strikeouts came from with that approach.

Since then, however, Gardner has been on a mini-roll over the last couple weeks.  Over the last 13 games, he has raised his tripleslash to a much more respectable .233/.337/.389 with 13 hits (3 XBH), 8 runs scored, 3 RBI, and 10 BB to just 5 Ks.  I'm not going to pretend to be smart enough to come up with a sabermetric explanation for this turnaround, but I imagine it has something to do with Gardner adjusting his approach to what pitchers were doing to him early, being a little more aggressive early in the count, and generally having better pitch recognition than he did in the first month of the year.

Gardner and Jeter had been 2 of the 3 weakest links of the Yankee offense early in the season, raising questions about whether or not either of them should be leading off.  Lately, however, both have turned it around and now it might be time for Joe to re-examine his early-season strategy of having Gardner lead off against righties and Jeter against lefties.  Sort of a "strike while the iron's hot" approach.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

The Captain Leads The Team To Victory (No Really. He Did)

(Haven't gotten to see the Jeter home run trot in a while.  Courtesy of The AP)

Whether it was a sign that all the talk about Jeter being "this close," "almost there," "looking good at the plate," or "needing to use his lower half more" was real and today was the result of that coming together or whether it was just a flash in the pan is irrelevant.  What's important is that the Yankee offense was dominant this afternoon in their 12-5 victory over the Rangers and Derek Jeter was the leader of the offensive barrage.

This was a line straight out Jeter's prime: 4-6, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB.  And it was a sign that there might still be some life left in his bat that had looked oh so slow and oh so weak through the first 30 games of the year.  After a week where the offense brought very little to the table, to have Jeter step up and have the kind of day he had could be a momentum starter for the rest of the team moving into this week.  Jeter came into today's game already 3-9 in the series with a couple runs scored, but tonight was the big break out, and it came on a day where CC wasn't at his sharpest again.

There were other contributors today as well.  C-Grand went 3-4 with 3 RBI and his 3rd homer of the weekend, Teix was 2-5 with a 2B, HR, and 2 RBI, Brett Gardner had 3 more hits and 2 more runs scored, and Frankie Cervelli managed to crank a grand slam in the 8th inning to slam the door on any potential Texas comeback.  But the story of the day was and will be Jeter, and justifiably so.  There hasn't been much to talk about that's been positive when discussing Jeter so far this year, and the endless stream of excuses coming from his coaches was getting a bit tiresome.  So even if this was just a one-night thing, it's still nice to heap some praise on The Captain for his throwback performance.

And if he really did turn a corner today and can carry this kind of performance forward, even better.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Can The Super Nova Explode All Over The Rangers?

Now that I think about it, that was probably a poor choice of words for this column, but just ignore that for now.

What's important is that the Yankees are riding a 3-game losing streak, not hitting worth a damn, wasting good outings from pitchers not expected to provide them and not picking up pitchers from some "Meh" outings that still gave them a chance to win, and not seizing opportunities to extend their early season divisional lead.  Now they start a new series tonight, a new opportunity to get their momentum going in the right direction again, and they have a young man on the mound coming off 2 consecutive confidence-building strong starts.

That man?  Super Nova.  A.K.A. Ivan The Terrible.


Here's hoping he's got all 3 of his pitches working tonight and he's more like Ivan The Awesome.

The Downside To An All-Star Veteran Lineup

(INCOMING!!!!  Courtesy of The AP)

The Yankees are an older team.  No surprise there.  It's something that has been brought up by the MSM constantly over the last 10ish years, and justifiably so.  The Yankees' lack of youth has got them into trouble in the past, whether it's because of injuries putting people on the DL, injuries affecting guys' performances, lack of depth to cover these injuries, or dudes just flat out not being able to play the game at their previous high level anymore.  In the last few weeks, we've seen pretty much every one of those scenarios play out.

Derek Jeter was the most scrutinized position player coming into the 2011 season after his less-than-Jeterian 2010, and so far the results suggest that Jeter might be heading for the twilight of his career quicker than we anticipated.  Old mechanics, new mechanics, or a combination of both have not helped him fix his issues at the plate, and now he's hitting groundballs at a record pace with no power whatsoever.  And his range at short is pretty much equivalent to mine.  The fact that he missed yesterday's game with some sort of hip ailment is the cherry on top of that garbage sundae.

The Horse, as previously discussed, has been struggling since coming back from his sore oblique/back/whatever part of the body that is on horses.  And while there hasn't been any definitive proof yet, the weak results at the plate and talks of a "disconnect" in his swing suggest to me that he's still feeling the effects of that minor injury.  When he's been banged up over the last few seasons, it has been reflected in his performance, so logic would dictate that there could be something still wrong with him now.

And the guy brought in to provide some better backup for A-Rod, Eric Chavez, is now going to be on the shelf for a while after breaking a bone in his foot legging out a triple yesterday.  It's not something that can be tied to his previous injury history, but it's still an older player getting banged up and missing time.  And it hurts even more because Chavez had been playing like the Chavez of old all season.

Now all these dings to the veterans are bad enough, but when you consider that they open the door for the Eduardo Nunez/Ramiro Pena combination, that makes the sting even worse.  Nunez, God bless his heart, is an atrocious shortstop.  He has 5 errors already in just 22 defensive innings, and his throws to first are making the days of Chuck Knoblauch's breakdown look like an afternoon picnic in the park.  And Pena, God bless his soul, can't hit to save himself.  You could set a ball on a tee, give him an illegal aluminum softball bat, and I'd bet good money that he still wouldn't get the ball out of the infield.

Obviously none of this could have been foreseen, and obviously the Yankees weren't going to not sign/not play Jeter, A-Rod, and Chavez over Nunez and Pena just because of their age.  But it is that age that makes them risky plays, and regardless of how they've been playing, it's a bummer that their innings now have to go to Nunez and Pena, 2 below-average players.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Everything You Need To Know About This Series



That's it.  There's nothing more to say.  Let's just move on to Texas.

Quick Morning Rant On The Offense

To quote the late, great Vince Lombardi, "what the hell is going on out here?!?!"

12-62 over the last 2 games?  13 Ks to just 5 BB??  2 runs???  2 GODDAMN RUNS?!?!  You gotta be kidding me.  I try to put a positive sping on things yesterday. I give you guys a B- grade that you may or may not have deserved and THIS is how you thank me?  By getting shut out by Max Scherzer?  Come the fuck on!!  Mike at RAB leaves this beautiful gem of confidence at the end of his "curveball problem" post yesterday:

"... the Yankees face Max Scherzer tonight, and he doesn’t throw a curveball at all. He’s a fastball (63.3%), changeup (21.3%), slider (15.3%) guy and the Yanks’ still rank among the league’s best against each pitch."

... And I'm feeling good that I'm going to get home after my lacrosse game, check the box score and see that all is right with the world after a solid 8-3, 9-4 win and instead I get 8 shutout innings from Scherzer and another decent outing where the Yankee starter pitched deep into the game and limited damage wasted.

It's one thing to have an off day, it's one thing to lose when you're facing a good pitcher on a day where he's got all his stuff working.  But to get completely dominated by Brad Penny and Max Scherzer is just flat out unacceptable.  We're not talking Maddux and Smoltz in their prime here, gentlemen.  Brad Penny completely sucks.  Completely.  And Scherzer, talent and potential being what they are, hasn't exactly been racking up Cy Young votes since becoming a Major League pitcher.

I'm tired of the excuses about not using your lower half, I'm tired of hearing about guys being just off or putting good swings on pitches, and I'm tired of people not being able to string hits together and grounding into fucking double plays every time there is a slight glimmer of a rally forming.  Everybody needs to get their shit together and start hitting like the offense that leads the league in runs scored.

(Could you tell I haven't had my coffee yet this morning?)

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Is The Yankee Offense Good Or Not?

(The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.)

I've seen and read a lot of things this season that could easily lead me to believe "Yes" or "No," at any given time.  And as I touched on earlier in the week, consistency has been the major issue.  Last night was just the latest example of that consistent inconsistency as the offense could never capitalize on the multiple opportunities they had to pick up CC, choosing instead to shoot themselves in the foot.  So this morning I woke up thinking that the offense really wasn't as good as all the home runs might be leading us to believe, but let's let the numbers do the talking.

The Evidence For (MLB rank in parentheses where appropriate):

- 146 runs scored (6th), .340 team OBP (3rd), .468 SLG (1st, and 20 points higher than the 2nd place team), .808 OPS (2nd), 46 HR (1st, and 10 more than 2nd place), 182 K (27th, or 4th fewest in MLB), .352 wOBA (2nd), 120 OPS + (3rd), 5.41 R/G (1st).

The Evidence Against:

- .254 Team BA (12th), 224 hits (26th), .268 BABIP (25th), .240 BA w/ RISP, .177 BA w/ RISP 2 Outs, 58% SB Rate (27th), 32 GIDP (4th most in MLB), .229/.295/.294 tripleslash in 109 AB from the leadoff spot.

So there you have it.  Basically the Yankees aren't getting a lot of hits, and aren't getting key hits with RISP, but they are making up for that by hitting for a ton of power and drawing a lot of walks.  On top of their untimely hitting, they have cost themselves runs by failing to execute on stolen base attempts (14 for 24 after last night's basepath fiascoes), and grounding into too many damn double plays.  Even though I didn't dig deep enough here to find out the statistical support, I think it's safe to say that if the Yanks were hitting for league average power, that probably would have cost them some wins already this season because of how bad their leadoff production and clutch hitting has been.

Now some of this needs to be taken in context.  The Bombers have played 2-3 fewer games than almost every team in the league because of rain outs, making their lower hit total more acceptable and their run/home run totals even more impressive.  And we can assume that some bad luck has certainly factored into the low BABIP value (thanks a lot, Brent Lillibridge).  But things like a poor SB rate and the GIDPs are simply inexcusable, and personally I find the low RISP numbers a little disconcerting given the bulk of talent in this lineup.  When you add everything up I think it's fair to say that the offense has been good, but not as good as it could be.  Some better baserunning and better situational hitting and the R/G, wOBA, OPS+, and Win totals would look even better.  For now, I'll give the offense a B-.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

In Appreciation Of The Back Of The Rotation

(I bet none of you thought I would even start this many games this season.  Courtesy of The AP)

At the start of the season, the prevailing thought was that the Yankee rotation was going to be CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes as the sure things and then a rotating series of older veterans and unproven youngsters who would be expected to bridge the gap to the trade deadline when the Yanks could then try to trade for a Chris Carpenter or something close.  That alone was a frightening potential scenario when you consider that calling A.J. a "sure thing" is about as safe as calling Charlie Sheen "mentally stable."

After Hughes stumbled out of the gate and then had to be turned into glue in the form of his DL stint because of a dead arm, the panic meter should have risen to somewhere around 9.7-9.8, but instead the Yankee rotation has been better than anybody anticipated so far, and we all have Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova to thank for that.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to take any of the credit away from CC or A.J., as they have more than lived up to their end of the bargain.  But without these other 3 solidifying the back end and then some, this team would not be sitting at 17-9 right now.

In their 11 combined starts after Colon's beauty last night, this is the combined line for Colon, Garcia, and Nova:

66 IP  58 H  26 BB  24 ER  51 K  5-2 Rec.  3.27 ERA  1.27 WHIP  6.95 K/9

That's not just good 'back of the rotation' production.  That would be considered above average MIDDLE of the rotation production.  And when you consider that these numbers are all slightly inflated because of Nova's rough earlier outings that equate to 43 H+BB and 15 ER in 27.1 IP as a starter, it makes everything that much more impressive.  Colon and Garcia, the 2 guys who nobody except Joe believed in, have allowed just 30 hits and 9 ER combined over their 38.2 IP in 6 starts.  That's not acceptable "replacement level" production from your 4th or 5th starter, that's ALL-STAR LEVEL production from any starter.

And the best part about all these numbers is that they don't only demonstrate how good these guys have been, they demonstrate how consistent they've been.  Of their 11 combined starts, 8 of them can be classified as Quality Starts by the standard definition (6+ IP, 3- ER Allowed).  And within those 8 quality outings, 5 of them can be classified as what I would call "High Quality Starts" (6+ IP, 2- ER Allowed).  Save for Nova's 2 early stinkers, these 3 have given the Yankees a damn good outing practically every time they've taken the hill.  Colon has been downright DOMINANT in his 3 starts.  I think you'd be hard pressed to find anybody in Yankeeland who foresaw this high-quality output from this trio, but you also wouldn't find anybody who wouldn't have been thrilled to Michael Jackson zombie levels if somebody told them this is what they'd get.

Is it going to continue for the foreseeable future?  Who knows.  Is it sustainable over the next 136 games?  Almost certainly not.  But that doesn't matter.  What matters is that the Yankees are getting a huge bang for the minimal bucks that Cash spent on these guys in a time when they need it most.  We all scoffed at the decision and now Cash is the one laughing at everyone who doubted the decisions.  If one or more of this trio starts to falter or gets hurt, hopefully by then Phil Hughes will be back to full strength and back in the rotation to pick up the slack.  But for now, we should just sit back and enjoy the ride because it wasn't supposed to be this smooth.

The Horse Gets Spooked

 
After starting the regular season spitting the same hot fire he was in ST, The Horse seems to have thrown a shoe over the last 2 weeks.  Before he missed his 2 games in mid-April because of the sore oblique, he was sitting at a God-like .385/.500/.821 tripleslash.  Since returning he's seen those numbers drop to a mere mortal .269/.379/.551 and we all know that centaurs of his athletic caliber don't just experience that kind of drop off for no reason, so what, exactly, is going on with him?

Friend of the blog Larry Koestler touched on the subject yesterday with his post on A-Rod's rough week at TYA and came to the conclusion that it was A-Rod's free swinging that was too blame.

"... during the past few days A-Rod chased quite a few more pitches out of the zone, and made less contact with those pitches than he had been. He also swung more often in general, taking cuts at more than half the pitches he saw, but made contact at a distinctly poorer rate (66.7%, down from his season average of 78.4%).

The weaker hacks have unsurprisingly resulted in a lousier batted ball profile, with a 0% Line Drive% during the past seven days (compared to 11.5% on the season) and 47.1% GB% (compared to 41% on the season)."


You don't need to be a genius to look at that chart and realize that The Horse has lost some of his patience and reverted to a more Cano-like approach at the plate, and the results just haven't been working for him.  So we know the cause of the dip in numbers, but what is the cause for the increased swing rate.  The way I see it, it can be only one of 3 things:

1) A-Rod is trying to adjust to the pitchers pitching him differently after his scalding hot start.

2) A-Rod is still feeling some lingering effects of the oblique tweak and his swing mechanics are off.

3) A-Rod has become a bit more antsy at the plate since returning from injury because he has been following the news about Uncle Mo getting ready for the Kentucky Derby.

Now scenarios 1 and 2 make a lot more baseball sense, but I wouldn't rule out scenario 3 as being the true root cause.  Back in early March, The Horse had to be the odds-on favorite to win the Derby, but with Uncle Mo coming back into the picture and taking back some of the action,it's not unreasonable to think that that news had a negative effect on him.  I mean, A-Rod is good, but Uncle Mo is enough to stir even the greatest of centaurs.

In any case, I don't think this is anything to worry about.  A-Rod has had some issues before and he always works them out with Dr. Long.  A little video session here, some extra BP there, and he should be right back to his usual self.

(Chart via TYA and FanGraphs)

Monday, May 2, 2011

The Offense Wakes Up Just In Time

Well so much for consistency.  Whether it was Justin Verlander finding his stuff or the Yankee O losing their's, they went dormant again after putting 3 runs on the board in the first 1.2 innings.  That allowed the Tigers to creep back into the game over Bartolo Colon's strong 7 innings and deny him a win that should have been his.  But in the end, the offense woke up a bit in the 9th thanks to some wildness from Jose Valverde and secured the W.

And to Valverde, why aren't you dancing and gyrating around the mound now, you fat P.O.S.?  Save a game when it matters and then come back and talk to me.

Taking A Moment To Discuss The Story Of The Day

By now, everybody knows about the events that unfolded over this past weekend that culminated in the killing of public enemy # 1, Osama bin Laden, so I won't go into the details of that.  And I don't want to get political at all here because that's not who I am and that's not what this blog is about.  But as somebody with a family member who was a first responder and a survivor of the 9/11 attacks, I feel like I have to say something about this story.

Whether or not we all realize it, we live in a country that is still suffering the effects of the events that occurred on September 11, 2001.  One of the biggest effects was the uncertainty surrounding bin Laden's whereabouts over the last 10 years and the always lingering possibility of future attacks taking place.  While it certainly doesn't put a period on the war on terror or completely close the wounds that 9/11 left, the resolution of this one effect does help bring some closure to those of us who have a direct connection to that day.  Knowing that the man responsible for trying to and succeeding in killing our friends and family members has met the appropriate form of justice allows us to breathe a small sigh of relief.

But beyond that, the fact that we live in a country that has remained steadfast in its commitment to bringing this man to justice over the last 10 years, and succeeded in that commitment, is the real story.  Personally, I feel incredibly proud and honored to live in a country that not only allows me the freedom to write a blog like this where I constantly call into question the manhood and intelligence of other people while using the occasional F-word (something that would get me killed in other counties), but also has a large group of people who I will never meet and who don't know me yet commit themselves and their lives each and every day to protecting my freedom and my ability to write and express my feelings through this blog.  I know there are millions and possibly billions of people around the world who can't say that and don't have that same level of freedom and protection that I have, so I feel incredibly lucky to know that there are people out there who have my back every second of every day, offering me protection from other people in the world who hate me and hate the freedoms that I have by being a citizen of this country.

In the grand scheme of things in the world, this blog is as insignificant as a speck of dust, but it's important to me and it's something I love to do.  So to the people who were involved, directly or indirectly, in the events that took place over the weekend, and to all the men and women in our armed forces around the world who give me the opportunity to do what I do every day on this simple, little Yankee blog, I thank you from the bottom of my heart.  I only regret that I will never get the chance to thank you in person.

AB4AR's State Of The Yankees After The First Month

 (Swish is just as happy as I am about the first 25 game.  Courtesy of The AP)

It's only been 1 calendar month (plus a few days) and only 25 games for the Yankees this year.  And I'm smart enough to know that 1 month and 25 games is not a sound basis for evaluating the overall performance of players nor for predicting what the rest of the season will hold.  But it does offer enough of a sample size to make some broad statements about the positives and negatives of the team as a whole, and also provide some slight insights as to what the future may hold and what adjustments may need to be made moving forward.

Overall there is a lot to like about the first month of the Yankee season.  The offense is getting solid production from some of those expected to perform well (Cano, A-Rod) and some who have been pleasant surprises (Martin, Chavez).  Guys like Teix and C-Grand have bounced back early from subpar 2010 campaigns to help carry the torch and pick up the slack for what has been a rotation in flux and some slumping veterans.  That being said, the rotation really hasn't been as bad as expected, certainly not as bad as one might think it could have been with Phil Hughes' early struggles and trip to the DL.  CC is doing his job at the top as the ace and the rest are filling in behind him and offering solid contributions, especially A.J., whose pairing with Larry Rothschild seems to be working very well.  And despite some bumps in the road, the bullpen has been solid thanks to the core of Mo, Sour Puss, Joba, D-Rob, and Boone Logan.

Behind the basic numbers, though, there are some black marks on the offense.  The results have been 'feast or famine' in that the home run is accounting for over 57% of the team's runs early and there have been multiple instances of potential big innings being thwarted by failure to get hits with RISP or the always-dreaded GIDP.  And as great as the Cano-Horse-Teix-C-Grand-Martin quintet has been, the Jeter-Swish-Gardner-Posada foursome that makes up the rest of the lineup has been equally awful, balancing out to a .251/.335/.474 team tripleslash.  They are still 1st in baseball in OPS and 2nd with a .353 wOBA, but the offense has yet to put together a significant streak of games where everybody has been producing and doing the right things at the plate, and that has cost them a few close games early on.  It's scary/sad to think about what their numbers and their record could be if they were getting more consistent production from everybody.

The pitching, in my opinion, has exceeded expectations so far.  The starting rotation has combined for an 11-5 record in their 25 starts with a respectable 3.88 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, numbers inflated slightly by Phil Hughes' horrific results.  Eliminate him and the Yankees have 4 starters with ERAs below 3.93 (and 3 below 2.25), WHIPs below 1.28, and an average of 7.59 K/9.  And Ivan Nova has put together 2 consecutive solid starts to help ease the concern about his status moving forward.  The bullpen has been even better, especially when you factor out Nova and Freddy Garcia's bad 1.2 innings, all averaging out to a team ERA/FIP/xFIP tripleslash of 3.72/3.72/4.02, which isn't going to win any awards but has certainly been more than enough to win and better than I expected.

The biggest thing the Yankees have been lacking has been consistency, both at the plate and on the mound.  If they can establish that and get the offense and pitching on the same page, they can be very dangerous moving forward.  The biggest issue they need to address is the future of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.  Their early number suggest that their age has finally caught up with them, and Joe will need to make the call about whether or not Jeter should be moved down in the lineup and whether or not Jesus Montero should be called up to replace Posada in the lineup if the 2 elder statesmen's performance doesn't pick up.  It's not a situation that anybody is going to want to address, but if things continue down the path Jeter and Posada are already on, it's a decision that will have to be made.

A plan also needs to be put in place for solidifying the rotation if guys like Garcia and Colon either start to fade (possible) or get hurt (likely).  As good as they have been, their history suggests that these results won't hold for the rest of the year.  And with Hughes on the shelf indefinitely and Kevin Millwood opting out after his Triple-A bomb job last week (thank God), internal options are a little light so the kids in Triple-A or potential trade options should be explored now so that the team can be prepared to react and fill the gap if the time comes.

All in all, I would give the Yankees a B for the first month, close to a B+.  To lose Phil Hughes and not miss a beat in the rotation has been huge.  If they can get some consistency from the offense, better results from Soriano in the 8th, and stay healthy, the summer should be a fun time to be a Yankee fan.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Weekend Series Recap

The fam was in town to visit this weekend, hence the lack of updates and material on the blog.  But that don't mean I wasn't paying attention to what was going on in Yankeeland.  A series with Toronto that started out ugly ended up being another series win and an extension of the division lead, which is always good news.  Let's take a quick trip back in time to review all 3 games.

Friday: 5-3 L

If you saw the quick post on the AB4AR Facebook page on Friday night, then you know that Friday was U-G-L-Y without an alibi.  Freddy Garcia was meh at best in his worst start as a Yankee to date, but still gave his team a chance to win.  Unfortunately, the rest of the team took that chance and flushed it down the toilet thanks to a failed bases loaded/nobody out situation in the 5th, Dave Robertson heaving the ball into center field in the 6th when he had a Blue Jay runner in a rundown, which led to 2 runs scoring, and the offense going 0-8 with RISP and striking out 10 times.

The one offensive positive was Robbie Cano cracking 2 solo home runs, but overall it more inconsistency and failure to capitalize on the situation.  The Horse and Swishalicious were particularly bad, combining to go 0-9 with 2 Ks and 1 BB, including 0-5 combined with RISP.

Saturday: 5-4 W

A.J. Burnett took the mound yesterday, looking to build off his last start, an 8-inning, 1-run gem earlier in the week against Chicago.  While he wasn't that good, he was still effective at limiting damage on a day when his offspeed stuff was not there.  Over 6 innings he allowed 4 ER on 9 hits, but didn't walk a batter and like Garcia, he left his team with a chance to win.  That chance was something they managed to take and capitalize on in the first 3 innings, putting all 5 of their runs on the board against Toronto starter Kyle Drabek.  There was no one big star in the lineup, as 7 guys each had 1 hit, 5 guys each scored 1 run, and 5 guys each had 1 RBI.

What was frustrating was the offense's inability to build on their fast start.  After Drabek left the game, the Blue Jay bullpen held the Yankees hitless in 5.2 innings of relief.  Good thing the Yankee 'pen was up to the challenge of matching Toronto in the form of "The Formula."  Joba, Sour Puss, and The G.O.A.T. went 3 shutout innings to preserve A.J.'s win.

Sunday: 5-2 W

The rubber match today featured Ivan Nova looking for another good start to solidify his spot in the rotation after Kevin Millwood bombed in his last Triple-A audition outing.  Like he was in his last start, Nova was effective despite not being dominant or consistent.  In 6.1 innings of work he put 10 runners on base, but worked out of his seld-made trouble with key strikeouts and ground balls to only allow 2 ER.  Once again, Nova showed a better ability to mix his pitches up the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup to remain effective, and Joe gave him a bit of a longer leash than we've seen, allowing him to start the 7th inning with a pitch count approaching 100.

Offensively, it was Teix that got the Yankees started with a solo Teix Message in the 1st inning and C-Grand that closed it out with a 3-run job in the 5th, one of his 2 hits on the day.  Brett Gardner continued to look better at the plate, singling to get himself back to the Mendoza Line and walking twice.  But he also got caught stealing for the 4th time this year, so clearly something needs to be worked out there.  So and Mo handled the 8th and 9th again and the Yankees head towards the rest of May at 16-9.

There was some bad pitching, but mostly good.  And there was some good offense, but mostly bad.  A-Rod went 0-9 with 4 Ks in the series and has just 3 hits and 1 RBI since his 6-ribbie game against Baltimore last weekend, dropping his season BA to .274.  Also, Robbie Cano left the game in the 9th with a bruised hand.  The Yankees have already announced that he's day-to-day, so that's something worth watching heading into this coming week.