While this offseason has been mostly an inactive one for the Yankees, one thing they have gone after consistently is cheap pitching depth. From re-signing Freddy Garcia to another team-friendly one-year deal to taking low-risk flyers on guys like Adam Miller, Brad Meyers, and Matt Daley, the Yankees have definitely given themselves plenty of options to choose from when it comes to filling out their Major League and Triple-A pitching staffs for 2012. Among this smorgasbord of lower-level talent is a collection of left-handed relief pitchers (Cesar Cabral, Mike O'Conner, and Hideki Okajima) from which the Yankees will presumably look to fill the "2nd bullpen lefty" role that was left vacant in 2011 thanks to injuries suffered by the now departed Damaso Marte and the still being paid Pedro Feliciano. But in looking at how the team, and the bullpen, will likely be constructed in 2012, is a 2nd lefty reliever something the Yankees should even be pursuing?
In quickly constructing the roster, we know there will be the starting 9 (Teix, Bobinson, A-Rod, Jeter, Martin, Gardner, C-Grand, Swish, and The Jesus) and the 5-man rotation (CC, A.J., Nova, Freddy, Hughes). The bench will include Andruw Jones as the 4th OF, Eduardo Nunez as the backup SS/3B, and almost certainly Francisco Cervelli as the 3rd catcher. In the bullpen, the no-doubt crew includes Mo, D-Rob, Soriano, Boone Logan, and Cory Wade to start the season, which adds up to 22 spots already accounted for. The team will likely need another utility option on the bench, so someone like Ramiro Pena or Brandon Laird will fill that role for the 23rd spot, and the bullpen as it is has no solid long relief option, so pencil in somebody from the Kontos/Meyers/D.J. Mitchell trio for that role and the 24th roster spot.
This leaves only 1 spot open on the roster and a slew of players who could fill that spot. This is where the issue of "need vs. want" as it relates to another lefty reliever comes into play. The Yankees took the approach of deciding they needed another lefty in 2011, hence the signing of Feliciano, and it ended up backfiring on them when he missed the whole season. But in terms of how that loss affected the bullpen's performance against lefties, the argument could be made that they were just as well off without Feliciano. Boone Logan, for as much crap as he took around the blogosphere last year, wasn't completely useless against left-handed hitters:
- 27.1 IP, 38 Total Baserunners Allowed, 34 K, 2.96 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.12 xFIP
It was a down year for Logan, sure, especially when you look at all the baserunners. And he wasn't nearly as effective in his LOOGY role as he was in 2010. But when you add his 2011 in with his career totals against lefties, you get a very respectable 3.07/3.39/3.32 tripleslash with 10.13 K/9 in 114.2 IP. It's not lights out by any means, but the strikeout numbers suggest the stuff is there to be that kind of pitcher, and the results from 2010 prove that Logan is capable of being that type of pitcher. And with Logan typically being used in the 6th-7th innings of games, another lefty option would really only be necessary if the Yankees' setup man and closer struggled against left-handed hitting. Do they? Not exactly.
- D-Rob vs. LHH 2011: 35.2 IP, 38 BA, 54 K, 1.01 ERA/1.37 FIP/1.90 xFIP
- Mo vs. LHH in 2011: 27.2 IP, 28 BA, 24 K, 1.63 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.90 xFIP
- D-Rob vs. LHH career: 95.0 IP, 2.75/2.47/2.77, 12.98 K/9
- Mo vs. LHH career **: 341.1 IP, 1.61/2.49/2.87, 7.88 K/9
** (FanGraphs only keeps "vs. L" pitching stats from 2002 on)
Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn't keep stats on how many lefty bats Mo has turned into kindling in his career, but you get the idea. The combination of D-Rob and Mo has been very good against lefties, just as they have overall throughout their careers. It would be asinine for Joe to even consider playing a L/R matchup game with these guys late in games. Once Joba returns, the Yankees will have another late-inning arm capable of pitching well against lefties (3.93/3.82/3.85, 9.38 K/9 in 188.0 career IP as a starter & reliever), so the need for another lefty option becomes minimized even more.
I hate to break it down to such basic black and white terms and reference predetermined bullpen roles, but Joe already manages the bullpen that way, and because of that the Yankees are in a position where they don't really need another left-handed reliever. They're looking for 5-6 good innings from their starting pitcher (more if it's CC), and then just a 1-2-inning bridge to Robertson and The Sandman for the 8th and 9th. Boone Logan in his current semi-LOOGY role fits into that bridge perfectly and can continue to be used this way as an insurance policy for Soriano, who does have a shaky history against lefties (4.80/5.36/5.05 in 2011; 3.50/4.10/4.16 career). The re-introduction of Joba to the 'pen in mid-2012 will only add to that bridge inning depth, and once D-Rob and Mo enter the game, all talk of matching up goes out the window because of their ability to shut down hitters from either side of the plate.
Like last year, a second lefty in the bullpen would be a nice convenience to have, but it's definitely not something the Yankees need in order for their relief corps to be successful. A better use for that 25th roster spot would be to add another multiple-inning arm or a Chris Dickerson/Justin Maxwell type to lengthen the bench. And given their track records, there's not much to suggest that Cabral, O'Conner, or Okajima would be more effective against left-handed hitters than the relievers the Yankees already have. That's not to say that if one of these guys pitches well enough to earn a spot on merit out of Spring Training that the Yankees shouldn't take them. But Joe is already a bit too married to the idea of set roles for guys in his bullpen. There's no reason to take another lefty just for the sake of having another lefty and give him another option for a role that isn't needed.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Rough Day For Former Yankees In HOF Voting
Barry Larkin being the only player elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame was the big story yesterday. The smaller ones, and the ones more pertinent to this blog, were the results of 2 former Yankees on the ballot. And they weren't good.
Donnie Baseball had another weak showing, garnering just 17.8% of the vote. It was up from his vote total last year but still nowhere near what he'll need to get elected. And in his 12th year of eligibility, it's unlikely that we'll see Mattingly get the call unless the Veteran's Committee is feeling generous in the future.
Bernie Williams also didn't fare that well, picking up just 9.6% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. The one bit of good news for Bernie is that he's the only first-year player who earned enough votes to stay on the ballot next year. That bad news? Voters don't take into account one's music career.
Truth be told, I never really gave Bernie much thought when it came to HOF contention. His overall body of work doesn't scream Hall of Famer, but when you dig into the numbers, his peak years are pretty damn good. From 1996-2002, Bernie posted 5 consecutive ASG selections ('97-'01), 4 consecutive Gold Gloves ('97-2000), a Silver Slugger Award ('02), and a batting title ('98). His lack of top 5 MVP votes probably hurts his cause, but the 4 rings and postseason numbers should help to counter that. Based off of his 9.6% this year, Bernie is the longest of longshots to make it in. But based off his resume, a case can certainly be made.
Donnie Baseball had another weak showing, garnering just 17.8% of the vote. It was up from his vote total last year but still nowhere near what he'll need to get elected. And in his 12th year of eligibility, it's unlikely that we'll see Mattingly get the call unless the Veteran's Committee is feeling generous in the future.
Bernie Williams also didn't fare that well, picking up just 9.6% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. The one bit of good news for Bernie is that he's the only first-year player who earned enough votes to stay on the ballot next year. That bad news? Voters don't take into account one's music career.
Truth be told, I never really gave Bernie much thought when it came to HOF contention. His overall body of work doesn't scream Hall of Famer, but when you dig into the numbers, his peak years are pretty damn good. From 1996-2002, Bernie posted 5 consecutive ASG selections ('97-'01), 4 consecutive Gold Gloves ('97-2000), a Silver Slugger Award ('02), and a batting title ('98). His lack of top 5 MVP votes probably hurts his cause, but the 4 rings and postseason numbers should help to counter that. Based off of his 9.6% this year, Bernie is the longest of longshots to make it in. But based off his resume, a case can certainly be made.
Monday, January 9, 2012
An All-Jorge Linkapalooza
As I did with Andy Pettitte when he retired, here's a collection of the best stuff around related to Jorge's retirement.
- I know I linked to it in my own post this morning, but Buster Olney's piece on Jorge's career and his numbers is a must-read.
- The NY Times has a photographic look at Jorge's Yankee career.
- Tom Verducci's piece for SI does a good job of making a case for Jorge's inclusion in the HOF.
- At The Daily News, Bill Madden, if you're into that kind of thing, argues that Jorge's HOF case should be strengthened by the fact that he spent his entire career with one team.
- Kevin Kernan at The Post has a short, heartfelt piece on how Jorge deciding to hang them up was the right call.
- Mike at RAB takes a great trip down memory lane as he reviews "The Jorge Posada Game" against the Rangers on May 16, 2006. Either this or the ALCS double is Jorge's defining moment, so check this one out if you're not familiar.
** UPDATE- 1/10/12- 7:38AM- Jack Curry at YES has another great piece on Jorge, this one taking a bigger look at Jorge the person. **
- I know I linked to it in my own post this morning, but Buster Olney's piece on Jorge's career and his numbers is a must-read.
- The NY Times has a photographic look at Jorge's Yankee career.
- Tom Verducci's piece for SI does a good job of making a case for Jorge's inclusion in the HOF.
- At The Daily News, Bill Madden, if you're into that kind of thing, argues that Jorge's HOF case should be strengthened by the fact that he spent his entire career with one team.
- Kevin Kernan at The Post has a short, heartfelt piece on how Jorge deciding to hang them up was the right call.
- Mike at RAB takes a great trip down memory lane as he reviews "The Jorge Posada Game" against the Rangers on May 16, 2006. Either this or the ALCS double is Jorge's defining moment, so check this one out if you're not familiar.
** UPDATE- 1/10/12- 7:38AM- Jack Curry at YES has another great piece on Jorge, this one taking a bigger look at Jorge the person. **
On Jorge's Retirement
Truth be told, I didn't really know how to approach writing about Jorge Posada's retirement, which, while not officially announced by Jorge himself, can be assumed to be impending after legit Yankee sources like Sweeny Murti and Buster Olney first reported the story this weekend. Jorge was never one of my favorite players as I grew up and became a real baseball fan, even as he proved time and time again to be one of the most valuable members of the dynasty that started in the late 90s. Even within the Core Four, Jorge ranks 4th in my hierarchy, well behind Andy Pettitte at 3. In fact, I had grown to dislike Jorge over the past couple seasons as he became more of a detriment than a strength behind the plate and devolved to a platoon-type, left-handed only hitter at the plate.
I was especially critical of Jorge this past season when he threw his temper tantrum and took himself out of the lineup against the Fraud Sawx after Joe batted him 9th, disgusted that he could let his personal pride get in the way of his duty as a teammate and professional. But in looking back at Jorge's career, it is that pride and attitude that I think carried him to the success he had as a player, and it is that pride and attitude that will define his career, for the better, as a great baseball player and a great Yankee. He was never the biggest, strongest, fastest, tooliest, anything-iest player on the field, and yet he got so much out of what he did have and brought so much more to the table because of what he had inside. That, more than anything, is the mark of a truly great player and the defining characteristic of Jorge's career.
In looking back at his career and trying to define his greatness, the first question that will come up is whether or not Jorge is worthy of making the Hall of Fame. His standard stat line paints a very strong picture: .273/.374/.474, .848 OPS, .366 wOBA, 275 HR, 1,065 RBI, 47.6 fWAR. You throw in the 5 ASG selections, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, and 4 World Series rings and Jorge's case becomes even stronger. He ranks top 10 all time amongst catchers in doubles (7th), HR (8th), and XBH (9th, and is 11th in RBI. Coincidentally, he also holds the same spots in those categories in the all-time Yankee rankings, along with the 3rd-highest WAR for Yankee catchers behind only Bill Dickey and Yogi Berra and the 8th most Games Player in franchise history.
Where the issue becomes cloudy is in the comparisons. Putting Jorge up against the greatest catchers of all time and his numbers don't appear as sparkling (12th out of the top 12 in terms of WAR for players who played at least 50% of their games at catcher). This is likely due to Jorge's negative defensive ratings, which hurts his candidacy in that they show him as an average all-around catcher, but also could help in that him still ranking amongst the tops all time despite the poor D shows just how good his bat was. But when compared to his contemporaries (all catchers who have debuted in the past 25 years), Posada ranks 3rd in total WAR, behind only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, 2 surefire HOFers. Furthering the contemporary argument is the fact that Jorge leads all catchers in hits, home runs, and RBI since 2000 and is the only catcher ever to ever hit over .330 with 20+ HR, 40+ 2B, and 90+ RBI in a single season. However you look at it, Jorge is right on the edge of the HOF line.
But HOF or no HOF, there is no denying the value and strength that Jorge brought to the Yankees in his 17 years in pinstripes. He was the vocal, fiery behind-the-scenes leader that balanced out the cool, calm, and collected public captain's role that Derek Jeter has played for so many years. He was the first to stand up for teammates on the field, the first to talk to reporters off the field, and event though he looked like he was hauling a stainless steel refrigerator on his back when he ran, he was always hustling when he stepped between the chalk lines and took the field. More than any other player, Jorge might define just what made that late-90s Yankee dynasty so special. He worked hard, got the most out of his talent, never tried to do too much, and stepped up in the biggest moments when his teammates needed him to. That's what people should remember Jorge by, and judging by the reaction he got all season long from the Yankee faithful, that's how he will be remembered.
If I had to pick, I would have to say my favorite Jorge moment was the game-tying double off of Pedro in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. With everything surrounding that situation and the fact that he came through off a pitcher who absolutely owned him, that's a moment I will never forget as a Yankee fan. The look of sheer joy and still lingering focus and intensity on his face as he turned around to celebrate with his teammates in the dugout is an everlasting image in any real Yankee fan's head, and probably the perfect image to capture just what Jorge was about as a baseball player.
So even though he wasn't my favorite Yankee and never will be, and even though I admittedly soured on him over these last few seasons, I am going to miss Jorge Posada. By whatever definition you want to use, he represented what being a "true Yankee" was all about, and it was fitting that he got to go out on his terms and on a personal high note this past postseason as one of the few Yankee hitters who actually performed well in the ALDS. I'm glad he chose to go out on that note and to go out as a Yankee, and I'm looking forward to the day when his #20 is retired amongst the other great Yankee numbers where it belongs.
(Stats and rankings courtesy of Buster Olney at ESPN)
I was especially critical of Jorge this past season when he threw his temper tantrum and took himself out of the lineup against the Fraud Sawx after Joe batted him 9th, disgusted that he could let his personal pride get in the way of his duty as a teammate and professional. But in looking back at Jorge's career, it is that pride and attitude that I think carried him to the success he had as a player, and it is that pride and attitude that will define his career, for the better, as a great baseball player and a great Yankee. He was never the biggest, strongest, fastest, tooliest, anything-iest player on the field, and yet he got so much out of what he did have and brought so much more to the table because of what he had inside. That, more than anything, is the mark of a truly great player and the defining characteristic of Jorge's career.
In looking back at his career and trying to define his greatness, the first question that will come up is whether or not Jorge is worthy of making the Hall of Fame. His standard stat line paints a very strong picture: .273/.374/.474, .848 OPS, .366 wOBA, 275 HR, 1,065 RBI, 47.6 fWAR. You throw in the 5 ASG selections, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, and 4 World Series rings and Jorge's case becomes even stronger. He ranks top 10 all time amongst catchers in doubles (7th), HR (8th), and XBH (9th, and is 11th in RBI. Coincidentally, he also holds the same spots in those categories in the all-time Yankee rankings, along with the 3rd-highest WAR for Yankee catchers behind only Bill Dickey and Yogi Berra and the 8th most Games Player in franchise history.
Where the issue becomes cloudy is in the comparisons. Putting Jorge up against the greatest catchers of all time and his numbers don't appear as sparkling (12th out of the top 12 in terms of WAR for players who played at least 50% of their games at catcher). This is likely due to Jorge's negative defensive ratings, which hurts his candidacy in that they show him as an average all-around catcher, but also could help in that him still ranking amongst the tops all time despite the poor D shows just how good his bat was. But when compared to his contemporaries (all catchers who have debuted in the past 25 years), Posada ranks 3rd in total WAR, behind only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, 2 surefire HOFers. Furthering the contemporary argument is the fact that Jorge leads all catchers in hits, home runs, and RBI since 2000 and is the only catcher ever to ever hit over .330 with 20+ HR, 40+ 2B, and 90+ RBI in a single season. However you look at it, Jorge is right on the edge of the HOF line.
But HOF or no HOF, there is no denying the value and strength that Jorge brought to the Yankees in his 17 years in pinstripes. He was the vocal, fiery behind-the-scenes leader that balanced out the cool, calm, and collected public captain's role that Derek Jeter has played for so many years. He was the first to stand up for teammates on the field, the first to talk to reporters off the field, and event though he looked like he was hauling a stainless steel refrigerator on his back when he ran, he was always hustling when he stepped between the chalk lines and took the field. More than any other player, Jorge might define just what made that late-90s Yankee dynasty so special. He worked hard, got the most out of his talent, never tried to do too much, and stepped up in the biggest moments when his teammates needed him to. That's what people should remember Jorge by, and judging by the reaction he got all season long from the Yankee faithful, that's how he will be remembered.
If I had to pick, I would have to say my favorite Jorge moment was the game-tying double off of Pedro in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. With everything surrounding that situation and the fact that he came through off a pitcher who absolutely owned him, that's a moment I will never forget as a Yankee fan. The look of sheer joy and still lingering focus and intensity on his face as he turned around to celebrate with his teammates in the dugout is an everlasting image in any real Yankee fan's head, and probably the perfect image to capture just what Jorge was about as a baseball player.
So even though he wasn't my favorite Yankee and never will be, and even though I admittedly soured on him over these last few seasons, I am going to miss Jorge Posada. By whatever definition you want to use, he represented what being a "true Yankee" was all about, and it was fitting that he got to go out on his terms and on a personal high note this past postseason as one of the few Yankee hitters who actually performed well in the ALDS. I'm glad he chose to go out on that note and to go out as a Yankee, and I'm looking forward to the day when his #20 is retired amongst the other great Yankee numbers where it belongs.
(Stats and rankings courtesy of Buster Olney at ESPN)
Sunday, January 8, 2012
It's Getting Closer...
I know we're still a while away from real baseball, but Spring Training is coming. No really, I'm being serious. We're just a little over 5 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. And that's a good thing, because I'm getting a little tired of writing about the nothing that the Yankees are doing this offseason, as I'm sure you're getting tired of reading about it. Just keep clicking the days off that calendar, people. Baseball will be here sooner than you think...
P.S.- That song needs an updated version showing the 2010-2011 players. Somebody get on that, please.
P.S.- That song needs an updated version showing the 2010-2011 players. Somebody get on that, please.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Jorge To Retire
According to Sweeny Murti, via Twitter:
"Jorge Posada will announce his retirement within the next two weeks, per source."
Can't say this would surprise me. There really hadn't been much talk of teams interested in Jorge. Now we can just stay tuned for the official announcement.
** UPDATE- 3:51PM- ESPN has the story as well. That source works fast. **
"Jorge Posada will announce his retirement within the next two weeks, per source."
Can't say this would surprise me. There really hadn't been much talk of teams interested in Jorge. Now we can just stay tuned for the official announcement.
** UPDATE- 3:51PM- ESPN has the story as well. That source works fast. **
How Are Things Going Over At Citi Field This Offseason?
I haven't talked about the Mets in a few months. What with the Yankees' offseason being so enthralling, I guess I kind of forgot about their little brothers on the other side of town. But surely, something new and exciting must be going on with that organization that will get their fans stoked for the 2012 season, right?
"The Mets said in a statement Thursday that they had hired CRG Partners, a firm known as a turnaround specialist and bankruptcy consultant, to provide 'services in connection with financial reporting and budgeting processes."
Oh. Well I guess that's a good thing. Maybe that means things are starting to turn around for them, right?
"The Mets are certainly under considerable financial pressure. They lost $70 million last season. They owe more than $400 million to a group of banks; $40 million to Bank of America; and $25 million to Major League Baseball that is past due."
Yeesh. That kinda sucks. But on the positive side, at least Fred Wilpon can check off the last thing on his team's offseason to-do list:
1) Re-design the field dimensions to better fit the mediocre skill set of the team.
2) Make no attempt to better the team at all through free agency or the trade market.
3) Allow the team's best player to walk in free agency without even making an offer just a few months after you could have traded him for valuable prospects.
4) Reduce ticket prices in a last ditch effort to get whatever is left of your rapidly-dwindling fanbase to come back to the stadium in 2012.
5) Hire a well-known firm to help you manage your impending bankruptcy.
That's a hell of an offseason right there if you ask me. As I stated last night on the AB4AR Facebook page, as a Yankee fan it's always good to know I have the Mets around to put things in perspective for me. The Yankees are trying to cut costs for 2014 by not throwing huge chunks of money at Yu Darvish or Mark Buehrle; the Mets aren't even making an attempt to sign Jose Reyes. The Yankees couldn't make a deal with a Japanese player to fill a backup infield role; the Mets are going bankrupt.
(Quotes courtesy of The New York Times)
"The Mets said in a statement Thursday that they had hired CRG Partners, a firm known as a turnaround specialist and bankruptcy consultant, to provide 'services in connection with financial reporting and budgeting processes."
Oh. Well I guess that's a good thing. Maybe that means things are starting to turn around for them, right?
"The Mets are certainly under considerable financial pressure. They lost $70 million last season. They owe more than $400 million to a group of banks; $40 million to Bank of America; and $25 million to Major League Baseball that is past due."
Yeesh. That kinda sucks. But on the positive side, at least Fred Wilpon can check off the last thing on his team's offseason to-do list:
1) Re-design the field dimensions to better fit the mediocre skill set of the team.
2) Make no attempt to better the team at all through free agency or the trade market.
3) Allow the team's best player to walk in free agency without even making an offer just a few months after you could have traded him for valuable prospects.
4) Reduce ticket prices in a last ditch effort to get whatever is left of your rapidly-dwindling fanbase to come back to the stadium in 2012.
5) Hire a well-known firm to help you manage your impending bankruptcy.
That's a hell of an offseason right there if you ask me. As I stated last night on the AB4AR Facebook page, as a Yankee fan it's always good to know I have the Mets around to put things in perspective for me. The Yankees are trying to cut costs for 2014 by not throwing huge chunks of money at Yu Darvish or Mark Buehrle; the Mets aren't even making an attempt to sign Jose Reyes. The Yankees couldn't make a deal with a Japanese player to fill a backup infield role; the Mets are going bankrupt.
(Quotes courtesy of The New York Times)
Friday, January 6, 2012
Friday Afternoon Sick Day Linkapalooza
My annual cold that didn't come in 2011 decided to grace me with its presence over the past 36 hours, so I left work early to spare my co-workers from my gross congestion. With no job to do this afternoon, this seems like the perfect time to take another spin around the Yankosphere. Join me, won't you?
- First up, a pair from RAB. Joe Paw looked at the current 40-man situation earlier in the week and tried to figure out who would be the next to go to make room. At least not signing Nakajima makes that situation a little more clear.
- Today, Larry Koestler crunched the numbers on the A-Rod contract to find out just how much he's being overpaid right now. It's not pretty when you get to the end of it, but definitely an interesting read.
- Speaking of The Horse, Rasheeda Cooper at Bomber Boulevard was in the mood to talk about him earlier in the week and she's very optimistic about his chances for a bounce back 2012. I can't say I'm quite as optimistic as Rasheeda, but when your post is titled "Let's Talk About A-Rod," you're speaking my language.
- Delia E. over at Yankees Fans Unite is already looking for improvements in 2012, and names her 6 Yankees that need to do just that. Love the inclusion of Girardi on that list.
- Over at Pinstripe Alley, Brandon C. has gotten over the harsh pain of losing out on Nakajima and is already looking for possible replacement utility options. I have to admit, I never would have considered Willie Harris, but I could see that working.
- Brien at IIATMS discusses the value that Ian Kennedy still brings to the Yankees, even though he's no longer in the organization at a time when they could use another quality starter.
- Michael Eder, one of the new additions to the TYA team, gives us some reason to be optimistic about Phil Hughes in 2012 by examining the link between his fastball velocity and his FIP values. If Phil can get the heater back up to where it was in '09, that could go a long way to strengthening the rotation. Not bad for a debut post.
- First up, a pair from RAB. Joe Paw looked at the current 40-man situation earlier in the week and tried to figure out who would be the next to go to make room. At least not signing Nakajima makes that situation a little more clear.
- Today, Larry Koestler crunched the numbers on the A-Rod contract to find out just how much he's being overpaid right now. It's not pretty when you get to the end of it, but definitely an interesting read.
- Speaking of The Horse, Rasheeda Cooper at Bomber Boulevard was in the mood to talk about him earlier in the week and she's very optimistic about his chances for a bounce back 2012. I can't say I'm quite as optimistic as Rasheeda, but when your post is titled "Let's Talk About A-Rod," you're speaking my language.
- Delia E. over at Yankees Fans Unite is already looking for improvements in 2012, and names her 6 Yankees that need to do just that. Love the inclusion of Girardi on that list.
- Over at Pinstripe Alley, Brandon C. has gotten over the harsh pain of losing out on Nakajima and is already looking for possible replacement utility options. I have to admit, I never would have considered Willie Harris, but I could see that working.
- Brien at IIATMS discusses the value that Ian Kennedy still brings to the Yankees, even though he's no longer in the organization at a time when they could use another quality starter.
- Michael Eder, one of the new additions to the TYA team, gives us some reason to be optimistic about Phil Hughes in 2012 by examining the link between his fastball velocity and his FIP values. If Phil can get the heater back up to where it was in '09, that could go a long way to strengthening the rotation. Not bad for a debut post.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Zambrano Trade Hurts Yankees' Chances Of Trading A.J.
There hasn't been a whole lot of A.J. trade chatter lately, although that may be an option that the Yankees are still open to and even pursuing behind the scenes. But with the Cubs moving Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins last night, and eating a hefty chunk of his remaining salary in the process, the likelihood that the Yankees actually move A.J. now is slim to none.
The Yankees opening bid for what they were willing to pick up on A.J.'s remaining salary was $8 million. That's a decent chunk, but still not nearly enough out of the $33 mil that he's owed for teams to be willing to take him off Cash's hands. For the sake of comparison, the Cubs are picking up $15.5 mil of Zambrano's remaining 18, or 86.11%. That same percentage of the balance of A.J.'s contract would be $28.42 million, a figure much too rich for the Yankees' cost-saving blood. For that kind of money, they might as well keep him on the team and pay him to at least eat innings.
Then there's the pesky little 2nd year still remaining on A.J.'s contract. Zambrano, psychotic as he is, represents a smaller risk for the Marlins because if he goes off the reservation again, at least they know they're done with him after the season. Any team willing to take on A.J., regardless of what the Yankees agree to pick up money-wise, is stuck with him for another year. And with the way he's pitched, that's not an ideal situation to be in.
A.J. being traded was probably never actually going to happen, although I would have been the first one to celebrate and suggest a parade through the Canyon of Heroes if it did. But with the precedent set by the Zambrano trade yesterday, any slight chance that something could be done was definitely killed. And that means we can all really start to prepare ourselves for another season of this guy:
The Yankees opening bid for what they were willing to pick up on A.J.'s remaining salary was $8 million. That's a decent chunk, but still not nearly enough out of the $33 mil that he's owed for teams to be willing to take him off Cash's hands. For the sake of comparison, the Cubs are picking up $15.5 mil of Zambrano's remaining 18, or 86.11%. That same percentage of the balance of A.J.'s contract would be $28.42 million, a figure much too rich for the Yankees' cost-saving blood. For that kind of money, they might as well keep him on the team and pay him to at least eat innings.
Then there's the pesky little 2nd year still remaining on A.J.'s contract. Zambrano, psychotic as he is, represents a smaller risk for the Marlins because if he goes off the reservation again, at least they know they're done with him after the season. Any team willing to take on A.J., regardless of what the Yankees agree to pick up money-wise, is stuck with him for another year. And with the way he's pitched, that's not an ideal situation to be in.
A.J. being traded was probably never actually going to happen, although I would have been the first one to celebrate and suggest a parade through the Canyon of Heroes if it did. But with the precedent set by the Zambrano trade yesterday, any slight chance that something could be done was definitely killed. And that means we can all really start to prepare ourselves for another season of this guy:
Triple-R: The Outfield
(One for all and all for one. Courtesy of The Daily News)
The Yankee outfield trio of C-Grand, Swish, and Gardy slowly started to establish themselves as one of the best all-around outfields in baseball in 2010, especially after Curtis got the Dr. Long treatment on his swing in the second half. In 2011, that trend continued in a big way thanks to Curtis' monster year, and it's now a fair statement to say that the Yankee outfield is among the top 3 in baseball, top 5 on its worst day. So what should we be looking for in 2012?
Brett Gardner, LF- Remain
I know Gardner's numbers were down a bit across the board in 2011, but a lot of that can be attributed to his horrific start. And despite my continued pleas for him to work with Kevin Long to try to develop a little more leg drive and power to his swing to put balls in the gaps more often and make his speed on the basepaths an even bigger weapon, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. So we're left with the Brett Gardner that we've seen over the past few seasons, a lightning-quick slap hitter who generates most of his value with his elite-level range and defensive skills, and in this lineup that's just fine. Gardner should see a little more time hitting leadoff against righties in 2012, but I think it's safe to say that another season around .260/.360/.370 with a .340 wOBA is in the cards.
Curtis Granderson, CF- Regress
C-Grand's situation is a bit tricky. I don't see his 2012 being a true regression in the sense that he'll drop back down to the levels of early 2010 or worse, but rather a decrease in the power output he had in 2011. I've talked before about how Curtis improving his approach at the plate and being more selective should help him repeat his performance, and I believe that it will. But I don't see the HR totals being sustainable this season and the net loss from that should result in a slight regression from his 2011 numbers, not that having a slight regression from a career year is a bad thing. When you consider his defensive inadequacies, at least as they're measured by most sabermetric defensive ratings, and the fact that he'll hit the 30-year-old plateau before the beginning of the season, there's the possibility of some decline beginning in that department as well. I don't expect it to be much, and I still expect him to put up All Star-caliber numbers again, but do believe C-Grand will experience a slight regression in 2012.
Nick Swisher, RF- Remain
Swish is another interesting case when it comes to picking one of the Rs for him. In 2010, Swish abandoned his traditional "work the count and draw walks" approach after working with the esteemed Dr. Long in the offseason for a more swing-happy tactic that produced very good results (.377 wOBA). This past season, he got back to his pitch-taking roots, boosting his BB rate back up to 15.0% from a career-low 9.1% in 2010 and sacrificing some hits and power as a result. He still finished with very good numbers (.358 wOBA), comparable to his 2010 season in many categories, and his final 3.8 WAR was not far off from the 4.1 he had in 2010. I see him finding a balance between his approaches from the past 2 seasons in 2012 and so I believe we'll see production from Swish similar to what he's already done, with a line somewhere in the .270/.370/.470, .360wOBA range. You could make the "playing for a contract" case for Swish, but at 31 he's a little beyond the age where he can have a career year, and that line I just suggested will still get him a damn good contract from somebody.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Winning!
Hipster Horse is the fucking man! Goddamn plasma therapy must have worked like a motherfucker to produce that much swag.
Oh, and hanging out with Torrie Wilson? That's baller shit. Right, JR?
Good God almighty, indeed!
Photo courtesy of With Leather
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects Recap
In case you missed any of it over the last week, here's the full and complete breakdown of the AB4AR Top 30 Prospects in one convenient, easy-to-use list:
1) Jesus Montero
2) Manny Banuelos
3) Dellin Betances
4) Austin Romine
5) Gary Sanchez
6) Mason Williams
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott
11) Brett Marshall
12) D.J. Mitchell
13) Corban Joseph
14) Graham Stoneburner
15) Brandon Laird
16) Ramon Flores
17) Rob Segedin
18) Bryan Mitchell
19) Dante Bichette Jr.
20) Zoilo Almonte
21) Cito Culver
22) David Adams
23) Ravel Santana
24) George Kontos
25) Mark Montgomery
26) Nik Turley
27) Tommy Kahnle
28) Kyle Roller
29) Branden Pinder
30) Tyler Austin
Click the links to check out each individual player report:
Spots 30-26
Spots 25-21
Spots 20-16
Spots 15-11
Spots 10-6
Spots 5-1
1) Jesus Montero
2) Manny Banuelos
3) Dellin Betances
4) Austin Romine
5) Gary Sanchez
6) Mason Williams
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott
11) Brett Marshall
12) D.J. Mitchell
13) Corban Joseph
14) Graham Stoneburner
15) Brandon Laird
16) Ramon Flores
17) Rob Segedin
18) Bryan Mitchell
19) Dante Bichette Jr.
20) Zoilo Almonte
21) Cito Culver
22) David Adams
23) Ravel Santana
24) George Kontos
25) Mark Montgomery
26) Nik Turley
27) Tommy Kahnle
28) Kyle Roller
29) Branden Pinder
30) Tyler Austin
Click the links to check out each individual player report:
Spots 30-26
Spots 25-21
Spots 20-16
Spots 15-11
Spots 10-6
Spots 5-1
Happy Belated To A.J.
I don't know how I could have missed this yesterday, with A.J. being such a vital part of the Yankee team and having a long history of success and big moments in pinstripes, but yesterday was A.J. Burnett's 35th birthday. So on behalf of myself and anybody else out there who might have let this important date in Yankee history slip his or her mind, happy belated birthday, A.J.! Hopefully you got some command of your fastball this year.
P.S.- There might be no better person in the world to forget a birthday for than A.J. Burnett.
P.S.- There might be no better person in the world to forget a birthday for than A.J. Burnett.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 5-1
With a certain son of the Lord poised to make his full-season Major League debut in 2012, the new "next big thing" catcher in the Yankee system will be Gary Sanchez. Sanchez is still a baby at 19, but already has 2 very productive MiL seasons under his belt. After punishing the GCL and more than holding his own as an 18-year-old in 2010, Sanchez received a promotion to Low-A Charleston in 2011 and after a very slow start rebounded to finish with a very good .256/.335/.485 tripleslash, 34 XBH (including 17 HR), 52 RBI, and a .364 wOBA. His season was not without some controversy, though, as Sanchez was sent down to Extended Spring Training for a short time because of "attitude problems," and there are plenty of questions about his prospects of remaining a catcher moving forward.
Sanchez is a top prospect because of his bat, there's no doubt there. He already possesses well above-average power and can put the ball all over the field. His K rate is still a bit high (27.1% this past year), but when you remember the age you can live with it. Sanchez does offset that a bit with some good plate discipline; his 10.5% BB rate in 2011 was a new career high. But it will be his ability to improve behind the plate that will determine how hot a prospect Sanchez becomes as he moves to the upper levels. At 6'2"/195 he is already a big body and could get bigger as he matures. His defensive skills were questionable at best to start 2011 and he didn't get nearly the positive reviews that J.R. Murphy did in reports about his progress. And while I'd like to rank Sanchez higher because of his potential ceiling as a hitter, I think the concerns about his character are something worth holding against him. Young or not, it's not consistent to criticize Slade Heathcott about his character issues when all signs point to him being a dedicated player on the field, and then not address similar issues with Sanchez when his are on-field-related. I think Sanchez gets the jump to High-A to start 2012 to see how he handles the the next level, and if he's improved his defensive abilities and his attitude, he could be the new #1 prospect this time next year.
Despite a down year for him in 2011, I still ranked Romine ahead of Sanchez because he's much closer to becoming a Major Leaguer and even got a taste of that life in 2011. Romine stumbled out of the blocks a bit in 2011 for Trenton and never fully recovered, but still finished with a respectable .286/.351/.378 line and a .332 wOBA for the Thunder in 373 PA. At the end of the season, Romine was shuffled up to Triple-A to fill a gap and then spent some time in September as the backup to Russell Martin after Francisco Cervelli went down. He only got 20 PA there, but did get the chance to show off his skill set and put himself in line for a possible backup role again this year.
Romine isn't as flashy as the other Yankee catching prospects with his bat, but may be the best defensively, even if there are mixed reports out there as to just how good he is behind the plate. Romine is 6'1"/195, and a right-handed hitter who has always had the reputation of having just enough power and general hitting skills to get by. Baseball America still projects him as a possible .270, 10-15 HR guy at the Major League level, which is enough to get you All Star consideration these days, but his lack of power in 2011 was a bit of a concern (.092 ISO in Double-A). He'll also have to tighten up his approach at the plate to be successful as a hitter at the upper levels, but the tools are all still there. With 2011 being the down year that it was for Romine, I expect the Yankees to start him off in Triple-A again in 2012 to see how his skills have progressed. If he shows enough, it might signal that he's ready to be the "real" backup to Martin and inspire the Yankees to move Cervelli.
The bigger, and potentially better, of the 2 remaining Killer Bs, Dellin Betances continued his march to the Majors in 2011, even if that march included a few missteps and some potholes here and there. After having a big breakout season in 2010 (2.19 FIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 in 85.1 combined IP), Betances was on the radar as having an outside shot to make the show in 2011 if he continued to show that form. Unfortunately, his command regressed back to its usual inconsistent level (4.99 BB/9 in 126.1 total IP), but the stuff and strikeouts were still there and Betances earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A after making 21 starts for Trenton and posting a 3.42/3.70 ERA/FIP split. He's still a work in progress at 23, but the sky is still the limit for Betances because of the talent he possesses.
Betances' biggest strength and weakness is probably his size. He stands 6'8" and 245 pounds, an intimidating presence on the hill to even the most badass of guys, and uses that size and length to throw the ball right by hitters. But his height also gives him problems with repeating his delivery, and as a result his location and command of his electric stuff is usually hit or miss. And to call his stuff electric is not an overstatement. He's got his fastball back up to 95-98 MPH range as he's gotten further away from elbow surgery, and his power curve is damn near unhittable when he locates it. Betances is also working on a changeup, but that pitch is nowhere near the levels of the other 2. Along with the delivery/command issues, Betances is still learning how to effectively utilize all his pitches, something that I can give him a pass on because of all the time he's missed with injuries. He'll begin the 2012 season in the Triple-A rotation and will be watched very closely as a potential mid-to-late-season call up for the Yankees. His ability of lack thereof to harness his stuff will determine whether that comes in a starting or relief role.
Manny Banuelos is kind of the polished yang to Betances' erratic yin as the other half of the Killer Bs. And for that, he is considered to be the top Yankee pitching prospect across the board. Banuelos has had a reputation as a pitcher advanced beyond his years almost since he was introduced into the Yankee system in '08, and expectations were high for him in 2011 after also reaching Double-A with impressive peripherals as a 19-year-old in 2010. But like Betances, Banuelos struggled with his command in 2011, both at Trenton and in his 7 late-season starts for SWB. The stuff was definitely still there as ManBan racked up 125 Ks in 129.2 combined innings at both levels, but the increased BB rate (almost 5.00/9 IP) did temper the buzz on him just a bit. That aside, ManBan is still looked at as a potential ace in the making and should be.
ManBan isn't nearly as physically imposing as Betances. In fact, he's not imposing at all at 5'10"/170. But what he lacks in stature he more than makes up for with a great combination of stuff, great composure on the mound, and a knack for pitching that almost nobody has at age 20. Manny's fastball has improved over the past year or so, and he can now throw it regularly in the low-to-mid 90s, his changeup can fool the best hitters in the world, and his curveball is rapidly becoming a plus-level offering. And when that combination is coming at you from the left side, you're in for a bad time as a hitter. The Yankees have a storied history of great lefty pitchers and Banuelos is poised to become the next on the list. He's already made his way to the highest MiL level in 3+ seasons, and could step in and pitch in the Yankee rotation this year if he had to. With guys like Phelps and Warren around, though, the Yankees don't have to rush him and likely won't. In a perfect world, ManBan will spend the entire 2012 season in Triple-A, working on refining his command and building up his innings totals. But if there are major rotation issues in the Bronx, he could be a "lightning in a bottle" option for the Yankees to consider.
And now, the first ever AB4AR #1 Yankee prospect...
/drumroll
Introducing The Triple-R Game: The Infield
The calendar has turned, and with that we move further away from the Winter Meetings, the Rule 5 Draft, and the meat and potatoes of the Hot Stove Season, and closer to the hors d'oeuvres of the real baseball season, that being pitchers and catchers reporting. With the Yankees remaining mostly inactive through this offseason, it's very likely that the team as it's constructed now is how we're going to see the Yankees open the 2012 season. If you haven't already started to come to terms with that fact, now would be a good time to start. If you have, then you're probably already starting to think about what kind of team it's going to be this coming season, which is only natural and a much better way of spending your time at the office. In looking at everybody's 2011 stats and trying to anticipate how they'll perform in 2012, there are really only 3 things a player can do: Regress, Rebound, or Remain where they are. Most projections are already out on the Yankee hitters and pitchers for 2012, but rather than try to pinpoint exactly what each player is going to do, I just want to set the bar for them by predicting which of the 3 R categories they best fit under. Today, we'll start with the infield.
Mark Teixeira, 1B- Rebound
By now we're all well aware of how bad Teixeira was from the left side of the plate in 2011, and what's more important is that he was aware of it and made fixing his left-side struggles a priority this offseason. Teix isn't that far removed from being a .300/.400/.550 hitter and is still just 32 years old, so he's not running on fumes yet. He may not leap back up to those levels in 2012, but solving his lefty problems should help boost his numbers above his 2011 totals, especially the .248 batting average, and make him the dangerous all-around hitter he's been.
Robinson Cano, 2B- Remain
A lot of people called for a dropoff in production from the best second baseman in baseball after his monster 2010 campaign, and all he did last season was come out and nearly replicate it. There should be no more doubting Cano anymore at this point as he's in the prime of his career and he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Some slight improvements could be made in his BB rate and defense, but to expect anything less than what he's done in the last 2 seasons would be silly.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B- Rebound
Maybe I'm just being too optimistic here because of the blood plasma procedure, but I think A-Rod bounces back some in 2012. Declining or not, the guy is due for some good health sooner or later, and if he gets it he's shown that he's still capable of being an above-average hitter when healthy. It's going to take some smart management of his playing time by Joe, but 130 games of A-Rod in 2012 should lead to better all-around production than what he provided in 2011.
Derek Jeter, SS- Regress
Watching Jeter find the fountain of youth after coming off the DL last year was fun, but the sobering reality is that Jeter will turn another year older in 2012. And 37-year-olds turning 38 in the middle of the season don't typically maintain the .327/.383/.428 pace that Jeter was on post-All Star break. I'd like to think that whatever Jeter did to help him return to form last year will help him from dropping back down to his late 2010-early 2011 levels, but a dip in production from his final .332 wOBA in 2011 should be expected.
Russell Martin, C- Rebound
Call me crazy here, but I think Russell Martin can have a 2012 that's better than his 2011. Last year it seemed like he was either on fire or standing at the plate without a bat even in his hand, and his final line of .237/.324/.408 leaves room for improvement. This year he won't be adjusting to a new stadium, new teammates, new pitchers in a new league, and I think that should help smooth out some of the ups and downs in his production. A few less bumps and bruises suffered behind the plate should help too, so hopefully the Yanks don't shy away from letting Jesus spell Martin regularly.
So what about you, Yankosphere? What are you anticipating from the pinstriped infield in 2012?
Mark Teixeira, 1B- Rebound
By now we're all well aware of how bad Teixeira was from the left side of the plate in 2011, and what's more important is that he was aware of it and made fixing his left-side struggles a priority this offseason. Teix isn't that far removed from being a .300/.400/.550 hitter and is still just 32 years old, so he's not running on fumes yet. He may not leap back up to those levels in 2012, but solving his lefty problems should help boost his numbers above his 2011 totals, especially the .248 batting average, and make him the dangerous all-around hitter he's been.
Robinson Cano, 2B- Remain
A lot of people called for a dropoff in production from the best second baseman in baseball after his monster 2010 campaign, and all he did last season was come out and nearly replicate it. There should be no more doubting Cano anymore at this point as he's in the prime of his career and he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Some slight improvements could be made in his BB rate and defense, but to expect anything less than what he's done in the last 2 seasons would be silly.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B- Rebound
Maybe I'm just being too optimistic here because of the blood plasma procedure, but I think A-Rod bounces back some in 2012. Declining or not, the guy is due for some good health sooner or later, and if he gets it he's shown that he's still capable of being an above-average hitter when healthy. It's going to take some smart management of his playing time by Joe, but 130 games of A-Rod in 2012 should lead to better all-around production than what he provided in 2011.
Derek Jeter, SS- Regress
Watching Jeter find the fountain of youth after coming off the DL last year was fun, but the sobering reality is that Jeter will turn another year older in 2012. And 37-year-olds turning 38 in the middle of the season don't typically maintain the .327/.383/.428 pace that Jeter was on post-All Star break. I'd like to think that whatever Jeter did to help him return to form last year will help him from dropping back down to his late 2010-early 2011 levels, but a dip in production from his final .332 wOBA in 2011 should be expected.
Russell Martin, C- Rebound
Call me crazy here, but I think Russell Martin can have a 2012 that's better than his 2011. Last year it seemed like he was either on fire or standing at the plate without a bat even in his hand, and his final line of .237/.324/.408 leaves room for improvement. This year he won't be adjusting to a new stadium, new teammates, new pitchers in a new league, and I think that should help smooth out some of the ups and downs in his production. A few less bumps and bruises suffered behind the plate should help too, so hopefully the Yanks don't shy away from letting Jesus spell Martin regularly.
So what about you, Yankosphere? What are you anticipating from the pinstriped infield in 2012?
Yankee Apparently Trying To Date Hiroyuki Nakajima
Which is weird, because I could have sworn they posted a fee to win negotiating rights so they could sign him to play for their baseball team. But according to Cash, the 2 sides are "still just talking." They have until Friday to come to an agreement, and so far there's no word on whether or not "still talking" means that the Yanks are going steady with Nakajima, if they're just friends, or if they actually want to add him as a utility infielder.
Monday, January 2, 2012
More Yankee Prospect List Fun
For those of you (like me) who missed this over the weekend because you were busy drinking your face off to celebrate the new year, John Sickels released his Top 20 Yankee Prospects list. I'll direct you here for the complete list and Sickels' explanations, but quickly here's his top 10:
1) Jesus Montero
2) Gary Sanchez
3) Manny Banuelos
4) Dellin Betances
5) Mason Williams
6) Dante Bichette Jr.
7) David Phelps
8) Ravel Santana
9) Tyler Austin
10) Adam Warren
Interesting list to say the least. I know I haven't seen many lists with Sanchez above either of the 2 Killer Bs, but I do like how Sickels included Phelps and Warren, something that Baseball America did not do.
Just a reminder, the AB4AR Top 30 will conclude tomorrow with the Top 5. If you've been following along for the last week you should be shit-your-pants excited for this.
1) Jesus Montero
2) Gary Sanchez
3) Manny Banuelos
4) Dellin Betances
5) Mason Williams
6) Dante Bichette Jr.
7) David Phelps
8) Ravel Santana
9) Tyler Austin
10) Adam Warren
Interesting list to say the least. I know I haven't seen many lists with Sanchez above either of the 2 Killer Bs, but I do like how Sickels included Phelps and Warren, something that Baseball America did not do.
Just a reminder, the AB4AR Top 30 will conclude tomorrow with the Top 5. If you've been following along for the last week you should be shit-your-pants excited for this.
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 10-6
10) Slade Heathcott- OF- High-A TampaDrafted as a compensation pick in 2009 for the Yankees failing to sign Gerrit Cole in '08, Heathcott has at times looked like great compensation and sometimes looked like a potential bust in the making. There were questions about Heathcott's durability and makeup when the Yankees drafted him, and he has lived up to those questions by suffering multiple shoulder injuries, the latest one shutting him down early this past season, and getting involved in an ugly incident in Charleston when he sparked a bench-clearing brawl with the Fraud Sawx Low-A affiliate. Whether you agree with the concerns about Heathcott's makeup or not (and I happen to be in the camp that doesn't), there's no denying that those 2 occurrences in 2011 make him a bit of a wild card in the organization moving forward.
And yet Heathcott still ranks as a top 10 prospect on my and many other people's rankings because the baseball talent and potential to be a great 5-tool player is there. Heathcott is still young, just turning 21 in September, and is a fantastic athlete at 6'1", 190 pounds. His natural athleticism, top notch speed, and great arm make him a potential Gold Glover-caliber outfielder, and he was making positive strides in his approach at the plate in 2011 before being shut down. After a 2010 season in which he posted a 33.9% K rate, Heathcott worked it down 27.0% this past season, and he balances his occasional hacker tendencies with a solid walk rate (7.85% in 2011, 12.0% in 2010). He still hasn't developed the ability to hit the ball in the air consistently, so the power numbers aren't there, but his .279/.347/.437 line in 242 PA at Charleston and 1 game at Tampa show that he's trending in the right direction. The shoulder problems are a huge concern, and it's unknown if Heathcott will be 100% recovered from his latest surgery at the start of the 2012 season, but if he is, I think the possibility is there to start him in Tampa and have him finish in Double-A.
9) J.R. Murphy- C- High-A TampaUsually the forgotten man in the group of young Yankee catching prospects, J.R. Murphy used 2011 to establish himself as a legitimate prospect at the position. Initially scouts questioned his ability to handle good pitching, but he made great strides behind the plate in 2011, enough that people now think he could stick there full time. And when you add that to his solid all-around work with the bat, J.R. Murphy is a name we should all start paying more attention to. Still just 20 years old, Murphy was putting together a fantastic season in both levels of A-ball in 2011 before a freak foul ball injury prematurely ended his campaign.
He's not a big kid by any means at 5'10"/170, but Murphy's approach at the plate is Yankee 101. He's patient and willing to work counts and take walks if he doesn't get anything he likes, and he also has a tremendous ability to put the barrel of the bat on the ball and make solid contact (just a 12.8% combined K rate at Charleston and Tampa). Murphy posted a .297/.343/.497 tripleslash for Low-A Charleston in 63 games to start 2011, good for a .359 wOBA, and although the numbers fell a bit upon his promotion to Tampa midseason (.259/.270/.365, .284 wOBA in 89 PA), the fact that he was able to continue to make contact and limit his strikeouts predicts future success at that level as well. Murphy is a good athlete with a good head on his shoulders, as his improved defense was reported to be the result of lots of additional work to improve his skills. If he can show that he's fully recovered from his injury, he could be another candidate for a split season in Tampa and Trenton in 2012.
8) David Phelps- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-BarreOne of the many examples of the Yankees' ability to find great value in the middle rounds of the draft, David Phelps is arguably the most well-rounded starting pitcher in the Yankee farm system. He breezed his way from Charleston to SWB in just 2 full seasons, posting sub-3.00 ERAs and FIPs along the way, and was among the group of young guys on standby to make spot starts in the 2011 Yankee rotation if needed. After throwing 158.2 innings in 2010, Phelps did experience a bit of a hiccup in 2011 as injuries forced him to miss some time, resulting in only 18 starts at Triple-A and only 114.1 total IP. But Phelps' production hardly suffered as a result, as he pitched to a 3.19/3.69 split with 7.55 K/9 and only 2.18 BB/9. Based on past history, it's likely that all of those numbers would have been even better had he not gotten hurt.
25 years old and good-sized at 6'3"/190, Phelps has shined in his MiL campaign thanks to the one thing that most college pitchers come into pro ball with that their HS counterparts do not: command. Phelps is a 3-pitch pitcher: fastball, curveball, change. His fastball sits low-90s and can be thrown for strikes on either side of the plate, his curveball has great movement and is used as an out pitch, and his changeup, while not rating as above-average, can be effective when he locates it. And it is that location and command that allows Phelps to be successful. In his 3+ years in the system, Phelps has never posted a BB/9 over 2.50 at any level, and it is his ability to consistently throw strikes and get ahead in the count that allows him to make the most of his stuff. Expectations are for Phelps to come into the 2012 season as one of the top starters in a stacked SWB rotation, and if he stays healthy he could be among the first in line for a promotion again should the Yankees need help.
7) Adam Warren- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-BarreIf David Phelps is David Phelps (and we know that he is), then it would be fair to say that Adam Warren is like a David Phelps 2.0. Also a polished college pitcher, Warren gets the nod over Phelps in the rankings because of his slightly better stuff and the fact that he had a healthy 2011. After having a dynamite 2010 campaign between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, Warren was promoted to Triple-A to open the 2011 season and stayed there all year long. His first year at Triple-A was a bit of a learning experience, as evidenced by his 3.60/4.05 ERA/FIP split and 6.56 K/9 (far below the 9.77 K/9 he posted in 52.1 Double-A innings in 2010). But Warren racked up 152.1 innings, meaning the reigns will be officially off of him now as far as innings totals go, and he gained valuable experience in how to handle better hitters and mix his pitches to work through an order multiple times.
Warren is a little younger than Phelps at age 24, and a little bigger at 6'3"/215, and he uses that extra size to add a little more oomph to his pitching repertoire. Warren throws 3 types of fastballs (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter) all in the low-90s, a curveball that is swing-and-miss good when he locates it, and a circle change that he uses to generate groundballs. The curve still needs some work, but with stuff like this and solid command, Warren could project as a #3-#4-type starter at the Major League level. The Yankees were aggressive with Warren in starting him at High-A Tampa in 2010 and then promoting him to Triple-A to start 2011 and I expect that to pay dividends for him in 2012. If he can get back to what he showed in the lower levels with this experience, he should fall in line behind Phelps as the next to get the call if/when the Yankees need starting pitching.
6) Mason Williams- OF- SS Staten IslandThere was probably no player in the entire Yankee MiL system that generated as much buzz in 2011 as Mason Williams did. Drafted in the 4th round of the 2010 draft and then signed to a $1.5 million bonus, Williams lived up to the hype in 2011 and then some. He hit .349/.395/.468 in 298 PA for SS Staten Island along with 20 XBH, 42 R, 31 RBI, and 28 SB, good for a .404 wOBA and a 149 wRC+. Williams also flashed elite defensive skills in center field thanks to his fantastic speed and a laser arm, and led the Staten Island Yankees to NY Penn League championship. Oh yeah, and he's a left-handed hitter. I said I was bigger on production than tools, but when you look at what Mason Williams produced in 2011 and the tools he has, it's an absolute no-brainer to include this kid in the top levels of any prospect list. When a guy only has 1 year of short-season A-ball under his belt and teams are already asking for him in trades for people like John Danks and Gio Gonzalez, you know you've got something special.
Williams is wiry at 6'0"/150, but being just 20 years old he has plenty of time to add some bulk to his frame. That lack of weight right now is likely the explanation for his lack of power (just 3 HR in 298 PA), but Williams used his speed to his advantage to take extra bases and will continue to do that as he advances through the system. While his patience at the plate could use a little work (6.7% BB rate), Williams did show a solid ability to put the ball in play in 2011 (just a 13.8% K rate), and that should serve him well as he continues to fine tune his swing and adjust to better pitching. And while his speed is a huge asset for him in the outfield and on the basepaths, Williams will need to improve his base stealing ability, as he has 12 CS to go along with his 28 stolen bags. Williams was considered very raw coming into the 2011 season after he only played in 5 GCL games late in 2010, so the fact that he had the type of season he did in 2011 and still has plenty of room for improvement is very exciting. Williams should get his first taste of a full season with Low-A Charleston to start 2012, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees fast track him to Tampa if he continues to produce like this.
** The Top 5 is unveiled tomorrow. **
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Some Good News To Start The New Year
I'm still trying to recover from the last 2 days, and if there is truth to these reports from Jon Heyman about Andruw Jones re-signing, then that helps.
1 year/$2 mil plus incentives for the ideal guy to fill the lefty-masher 4th OF role that he exceled in this past season? I like!
1 year/$2 mil plus incentives for the ideal guy to fill the lefty-masher 4th OF role that he exceled in this past season? I like!
Your regularly scheduled AB4AR will return tomorrow with spots 10-6 in the Top 30.
Friday, December 30, 2011
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 15-11
15) Brandon Laird- 3B- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-BarreLaird is teetering on the edge of no longer being a prospect after making some cameo appearances for the Yankees in 2011, but considering that cameo consisted of just 25 plate appearances I think it's fair to keep him on this list. 2011 actually represented a bit of a step back for Laird, who struggled out of the gate mightily at the plate before rebounding to finish with a .260/.288/.422 line and .310 wOBA in 489 PA. His banner year was 2010, when he hit .291/.355/.523 with a .383 wOBA for Double-A Trenton and took home the Eastern League MVP award for his efforts. As it stands right now, Laird is still a solid piece for the Yankees to have in their system at 24 years old, both as backup infield depth and as a potential trade piece.
Laird is known as a right-handed-hitting third baseman, but has also seen some time at first base and is even capable of playing the outfield in a pinch. He has decent size at 6'1"/215, but does not come off as physically imposing. Laird's calling card at the plate is a powerful swing capable of putting the ball over the fence on the regular and a disciplined approach that has always left him with solid K rates (17.2% in 2011). That discipline hasn't translated to a BB rate that you'd like to see from a power hitter, however, and that lack of walks was one of the main reasons for Laird's struggles in 2011, but he still possesses enough tools and experience to be a serviceable hitter at the Major League level. He's solid with the glove at both corners of the infield, but by not being at the head of the group of backup Yankee infielders, it's likely that Laird will start 2012 at third for SWB again.
14) Graham Stoneburner- RHP- Double-A TrentonA college pitcher drafted in the 14th round of the '09 draft, Stoneburner appeared to be on the fast track to the upper levels after a dynamite 2010 season that saw him post a 2.73 FIP and rack up 137 K over 142 IP in A-ball. He started the 2011 season in Double-A but was quickly derailed by a neck injury that significantly affected his ability to repeat the success he has in 2010. Stoneburner made only 11 starts for the Thunder in 2011, pitching to a 4.17/3.82 line with 5.55 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9, and spent the remainder of his time on the mound doing rehab outings in the GCL and Charleston. Stoneburner pitched just 91.1 total innings in 2011, and with a track record of serious injuries going back to his HS and college days, there should be a bit of concern surrounding his health and durability coming into 2012.
Those question marks aside, there is a lot to like about Stoneburner as a pitcher. He has already established 3 pitches that he uses: a two-seamer that runs in the low-to-mid 90s and is flat out nasty when he locates it, a solid curveball, and a developing changeup. There were talks of moving Stoneburner to the bullpen prior to the 2011 season, most likely related to his injury history and lack of a 3rd pitch, but for now he'll stay working as a starter as he continues to improve the change. When he's on, Stoneburner has an excellent combination of stuff and command, his 2010 K and BB rates speaking to that, but he can still stand to improve his command to be more consistent and his ability to mix pitches as he goes through a lineup multiple times. He should be back to 100% to start the 2012 season and will almost certainly open back in Trenton, but he could be in line for a promotion if he shows the form he had in 2010.
13) Corban Joseph- 2B- Double-A TrentonA 23-year-old second baseman cut from similar cloth as David Adams, CoJo stepped into Adams' vacated spot full time for the Thunder in 2011 after murdering the ball at High-A Tampa in 2010 (.302/.378/.436, .367 wOBA). After some growing pains in limited late-season action for Trenton in 2010, Joseph had a much better year in 2011, posting a .277/.353/.415 line and a .346 wOBA in 564 PA. Putting up solid offensive numbers has been the norm for CoJo at every level he's reached so far in the MiL system, and right now he's likely leading the charge of sub-Triple-A position players who could be poised to break in with the Major League team in the next 2 years.
Joseph is slightly built at 6'0"/170, and doesn't generate nearly the power with his left-handed swing as Adams, but he makes up for it with a smooth swing and smart approach at the plate. His ability to draw walks (10.5% BB rate in 2011; never lower than 9.8% in his MiL career) and make consistent contact (18.4% K rate in 2011) make him a prototypical Yankee-type hitter, and projects future success as he continues to move through the system. Defensively, Joseph is a bit more of a question mark than Adams, as he's not particularly smooth moving to the ball, and the Yankees have experimented with him at third base in the past. But his arm is solid and CoJo held his own at second in 2011, so some more work on improving his hands could be enough for him to stick there full time. With Adams rounding back into shape health-wise, CoJo should get the bump up to Triple-A in 2012. If he continues to produce at the rate he has been, he could be in line for a late-season cup of coffee in the show and some serious consideration for a utility IF role for the Yanks in 2013.
12) D.J. Mitchell- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-BarreI'll probably take some heat for this selection, as I seem to be the only one out there who thinks this highly of Mitchell, but in looking at the guy's numbers I see no reason why people shouldn't be giving him more props. In a well-stocked 2011 SWB rotation, Mitchell pitched just as well as anybody, posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 161.1 IP. He's advanced from A-ball to Triple-A in just 2 seasons, pitching 140+ innings in '09, 150+ in 2010, and then the previously-mentioned 161.1 in 2011, exhibiting the ability to be both effective and healthy. There are some questions about whether or not his future will be as a starter or a reliever, but either way Mitchell has shown that he can be a useful piece of a pitching staff. It's important to remember that this kid has only been pitching full-time since his sophomore year in college, so there's room for improvement.
The biggest thing holding Mitchell back is his stuff. He stands 6'2" but only weighs about 170 pounds and so he doesn't generate a lot of velocity. He's mainly a sinker-slider pitcher, with the sinker sitting high-80s-low-90s, and he also has a decent changeup and will mix in the occasional curveball. The lack of velocity on the sinker and lack of a true out pitch in his secondary offerings combine to have Mitchell not miss as many bats as you'd like to see (6.25 K/9 in 2011), and his BB/9 consistently sitting in the mid-3.00s suggests he needs to harness his command. But moving through the Yankee system in 2 years with the numbers he's put up points to there being plenty of talent and natural pitching ability there to work with, and adding some weight and tweaking his mechanics a bit could bring some of that added velocity necessary to make Mitchell a true top-tier pitching prospect. There is also the belief that Mitchell's stuff could play up out of the bullpen where he could throw his best pitches more often, so it will be interesting to see how he's used in 2012 when he'll start out in the SWB rotation again.
11) Brett Marshall- RHP- High-A TampaAnother Tommy John Surgery recipient, Marshall went under the knife in 2009. Since returning to the mound in 2010, Marshall has flashed the type of electric stuff that future aces are made of, making him arguably the top pitching prospect below the current crop of Triple-A arms the Yankees have. In 2011, his first full season since the surgery, Marshall focused on building his innings and arm strength back up, and did just that by throwing 140.1 total innings at High-A Tampa over 26 starts. But he wasn't just pitching for quantity, he also pitched well, posting a 3.24 FIP and striking out 7.31 batters/9 innings. He'll turn 22 right before the start of the 2012 season and could be in for a big year as he continues to move further away from his surgery.
Marshall has decent size at 6'0"/195, and generates a ton of velocity on his 2 different types of fastballs he throws. His 4-seamer sits mid-90s and can touch the uppers at times, and his 2-seamer sits low-90s with plenty of movement in on right-handed hitters. He also throws a hard slider with a lot of late movement and is in the early stages of developing a curveball. With a repertoire like that, it's easy to see why the ceiling is high for Marshall. He has decent control of his stuff right now, but a 3.08 BB/9 in 2011 suggests that there's still plenty of room for him to tighten up his command to become even more effective. Like D.J. Mitchell, Marshall hasn't been pitching for very long, so his approach on the mound and mechanics aren't totally refined. As he continues to learn the nuances of pitching, the opportunity is there for Marshall to develop into a top-tier pitcher. There are some openings in the Double-A rotation after the promotion of the Killer Bs late last season, and I would expect Marshall to get bumped up and fill one of those spots in 2012.
Update For The Rest Of The Year
OK, people. Here's the deal. I've got 15-11 going up this afternoon for the continuation of the AB4AR Top 30, but I'm heading up to Bahhston for New Year's with my buddies so that's the last you'll be hearing from me in 2011. I know, I know, it's enemy territory. How could I betray my own Yankee fandom like that? But no worries. I'm loaded to the gills with Yankee clothes and will be wearing my new Yankee hat with pride all weekend, so rest assured.
I'll be back in writing shape some time on Monday, January 2nd when I get back out to Wisco, so the plan is to pick up the Top 30 then and finish it out with the unveiling of the Top 10 on Monday and Tuesday. And then from there we'll focus on moving forward towards pitchers and catchers reporting. So from me to you, have a happy and safe (and hopefully like me, hammered) New Year's Eve and I'll see you on the other side of the calendar change.
I'll be back in writing shape some time on Monday, January 2nd when I get back out to Wisco, so the plan is to pick up the Top 30 then and finish it out with the unveiling of the Top 10 on Monday and Tuesday. And then from there we'll focus on moving forward towards pitchers and catchers reporting. So from me to you, have a happy and safe (and hopefully like me, hammered) New Year's Eve and I'll see you on the other side of the calendar change.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 20-16
20) Zoilo Almonte- OF- Double-A TrentonHe's been in the Yankee system since 2007, signed as an international free agent at 16, but has consistently flown under the radar while other position players get more attention. Now 22, 2011 was Almonte's coming out party, as his performance at High-A Tampa (.298/.373/.522, .402 wOBA in 292 PA) forced people to take notice of him. Now Almonte is being looked at as a possible replacement for guys like Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson in the next couple of years after a promotion to Double-A Trenton and after the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster prior to this year's Rule 5 Draft. His production dipped a bit at Trenton (.246/.304/.371, .308 wOBA in 191 PA), but Almonte possesses all the tools to become a very good player.
He's not very big at 5'11"/165, but Almonte is a very good athlete with a plus arm who has worked to make himself a better defensive player. At the plate, his-switch hitting approach is very patient and mature, evidenced by his consistently solid BB rates, and he has developed some more power over time despite his small frame (15 total HR in 2011). He'll never be a 30 or possibly even a 20-HR guy in the Majors, but he can hit to all fields and can stretch balls into the gaps for extra bases thanks to his speed. The big drop in production at Double-A suggests that Almonte still has some learning to do at that level in 2012 and he will likely start the season there, but he experienced a similar scenario when he made the jump for Low- to High-A ball in 2010, so we should be prepared for improvement across the board and perhaps a late season promotion to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
19) Dante Bichette Jr.- 3B- SS Staten IslandLike the Culver pick in 2010, many of us scoffed at the announcement that the Yankees drafted Dante Bichette Jr. with their 1st-round pick in 2011. And many of us were quickly shut up after the season Bichette put together in the GCL. After a slow start, Bichette went on a tear for the rest of the season, finishing with a .342/.446/.505 line, .438 wOBA, 23 XBH, and 47 RBI in 240 PA over 52 games, taking the GCL MVP with him in the process. He even made a cameo appearance for SS Staten Island, hitting a HR in his 2 games of late-season action, and was named the #1 GCL prospect by Baseball America ahead of teammate Ravel Santana. Unlike Culver, Bichette has already done a lot to prove the doubters wrong and establish himself as a legitimate Major League prospect.
Even at just 19 years old, Bichette is big and strong at 6'2"/215, and will likely put on some more weight as he moves through the system. He is a right-handed hitter and already has a very mature approach at the plate for a HS hitter, working counts and taking plenty of walks when he doesn't get anything to hit (12.5% BB rate). He's got good bat speed and power but also doesn't K a ton (17.1% K rate), suggesting an advanced eye at the plate and ability to recognize offspeed pitches. His future position has yet to be determined, but Bichette held his own at the hot corner this year and could stick with more work. One of his biggest assets is his attitude, likely forged by being the son of a former Major Leaguer, as there were reports of Bichette taking a leadership role with the young GCL team this past season and often getting in extra sessions of BP. He will likely start the 2012 season in Staten Island, but a quick promotion to Charleston to get a look at how he handles a full season of games is equally likely.
18) Bryan Mitchell- RHP- SS Staten IslandDrafted in the 16th round of the '09 draft out of high school, Mitchell is one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Yankee system. He had a pretty good year for the GCL Yankees in 2010, pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 41.2 innings of work, and was bumped up to SS Staten Island full time in 2011. His performance there was uneven this past year, mainly due to inconsistent control of his stuff, but a 4.09/4.09 line and 8.61 K/9 from a 20-year-old kid isn't horrible and shows that there's plenty of talent there to work with.
Mitchell is a tall, lanky right-hander at 6'2"/175, and right now is still primarily a 2-pitch pitcher. His fastball sits low-90s but can hit 94-95, and his out pitch is a very good knuckle curveball. Right now there's no indication that Mitchell has started to add a 3rd pitch to his repertoire, something he will have to do to be successful at the upper levels, and he could stand to add some bulk to his frame to improve his velocity. Mitchell's biggest weakness right now is his command. He's had BB rates in the mid-to-upper 4.00s at both levels, but if he can start to harness his stuff, that knuckle curve can be devastating. Mitchell should still be looked at as a project, and I believe he should start this season in Staten Island again. But if he starts to show better command and development of a 3rd pitch, he should be moved up to Low-A to start stretching his arm out and to get more innings under his belt. The Yankees have been patient and careful with him so far; 2012 should be the time to take the training wheels off.
17) Rob Segedin- 3B- High-A TampaThe Yankees' 3rd-round pick in the 2010 draft, Segedin is a bat-first prospect in a similar mold to Bichette, although he has some more years and experience on Bichette as a college player who turned 23 this year. After a quick audition in the GCL and SS Staten Island in 2010 (.243/.321/.400 in 78 PA), Segedin was assigned to Low-A Charleston to start the 2011 season and hit the ground running. In 260 plate appearances, Segedin hit .323/.396/.482, good for a .394 wOBA and a mid-season promotion to High-A Tampa. There he experienced some growing pains adjusting to a higher level of competition, hitting just .245/.312/.310, but he has the hitting makeup to adjust and improve this upcoming season and beyond.
Segedin is a right-handed hitter who stands 6'3" and weighs 220 pounds. His approach at the plate isn't quite as patient as some of the other top hitting prospects, but he makes up for that by making a ton of contact and a ton of good contact at that. He doesn't have the over-the-wall power you'd expect from a guy his size, but there's plenty of power to the gaps and a low K rate (15.0% in Charleston) that speaks to his ability to consistently make contact. Defensively, Segedin is a bit more of a question mark than Bichette at 3rd, and the Yankees have already started experimenting with him in the outfield, but his bat is more than enough to carry him as a legit prospect. I expect Segedin to follow a similar path in 2012 as the one he was on in 2011: a start back in Tampa to see how he's improved and then a mid-season promotion to Double-A Trenton if the progress is there.
16) Ramon Flores- OF- Low-A CharlestonIn an organization that prides itself on patience and working counts at the plate, Flores might very well be the prospect who does that best. And as a 19-year-old who doesn't turn 20 until March of next year and a lefty, that makes him a very good prospect to follow. After hitting 3 levels of the system in 2010, mainly as an injury replacement, Flores settled into Low-A Charleston in 2011 and spent a full season there putting his advanced hitting talents on display. In 534 PA over 125 games, Flores posted a .265/.353/.400 tripleslash, a .350 wOBA, 39 XBH, 59 R, 59 RBI, and 13 SB. For a 19-year-old playing A-ball while most others his age were still in short-season leagues, that's pretty damn impressive. It's not hard to see why Flores is ranked where he is on this list.
What makes Flores' production at the plate even more impressive is the fact that he's not a big kid by any stretch of the imagination. Standing just 5'10"/150, calling Flores lanky might even be an overstatement, but he uses his smooth lefty swing to generate solid consistent gap power and his incredibly advanced batting eye to take plenty of walks (11.6% BB rate in 2011) if he doesn't get anything he likes. Continuing to fine tune his swing and adding some muscle will only make Flores more dangerous as a hitter as he moves through the system. He's also no slouch defensively, boasting an above-average arm in the outfield that should keep him there permanently after the Yanks experimented with him in different spots and even at first base in 2010. Like Zoilo Almonte, Flores hasn't gotten a ton of ink yet, but I expect 2012 to be his big introduction to the masses as a solid prospect as he makes a full-season return to High-A Tampa.
** Coming up tomorrow- Spots 15-11. **
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 25-21
25) Mark Montgomery- RHP- Low-A CharlestonOf all the young nasty relievers currently in the Yankees' system, Montgomery might very well be the nastiest. He's not as big as Branden Pinder or Tommy Kahnle at 5'11''/205, but the numbers he put up in his first pro season in 2011 were even more eye-opening. Drafted in the 11th round of this year's draft, Montgomery was assigned to SS Staten Island and then quickly moved to Charleston after striking out 10 of the 19 batters he faced over 4 innings of work. At Charleston, Montgomery continued to miss bats at an incredible rate, striking out 41 more over 24.1 IP and racking up 14 saves. All totaled, Montgomery's K/9 was 16.2 over his 28.1 innings of work. I don't care what level you're doing it at, that's damn impressive.
Montgomery's fastball sits in the low-90s but can be dialed up to 94-95 when he needs to reach back for something extra. His biggest asset, though, something that neither Pinder nor Kahnle have established yet, is a good secondary pitch. Montgomery's slider is his big out pitch and has already been graded by scouts as "major league plus." He, like almost every young pitcher, still needs to harness his command of his stuff, but at just 21 and with 2 plus pitches in his repertoire, Montgomery is set up to become a Dave Robertston-type relief ace. He should start 2012 in Tampa and could be in line for another quick promotion if he dominates that league. If the command comes around, we could be looking at Montgomery as the next big piece of the Yankee bullpen in 2013.
24- George Kontos- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-BarreA guy who is older than me probably shouldn't qualify as a prospect, but with the reinvention that Kontos has had to go through after Tommy John Surgery, and the fact that he is practically a Major League-ready reliever right now, I think that's enough to get him on the list. Originally drafted in '05 as a starter, Kontos experienced success rising through the system until the TJS shut him down in mid-2009. Since then, Kontos has rehabbed his arm and rebuilt himself as a very effective relief pitcher. In 89.1 innings at SWB in 2011, Kontos posted a 2.62 ERA/3.85 FIP with a 9.17 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 to boot, and then struck out another 6 in his 7-outing, 6-inning cup of coffee with the Yanks at the end of the season.
Kontos is another big body (6'3"/215) and has seen his stuff play up a bit since the surgery and conversion to a relief role. He throws a low-90s fastball that he can run all over the place and did in his late-season audition with the Yankees, and a mid-80s slider that generates lots of swings and misses when it's on. He's got a few problem areas that could be cause for concern at the next level, but he'll be given a long look in Spring Training in 2012 and could very well win the last bullpen spot out of camp. If Soriano has injury problems again and the clock strikes midnight on Cory Wade, the opportunity is there for Kontos to get some higher-leverage innings. If he can throw strikes consistently, he could be a useful piece in the Majors next season.
23) Ravel Santana- CF- GCL YankeesWe haven't touched "toolsy young position player" territory since opening with Tyler Austin, and players don't get much more toolsy than Santana. Signed as an international free agent in 2009 at age 17, Santana tore up the Dominican Summer League in 2010 to the tune of a .322/.440/.533 tripleslash, .493 wOBA, 21 XBH, and 22 SB in 244 plate appearances. He was doing similar things in 2011 for the GCL Yankees (.296/.361/.568, .423 wOBA, 23 XBH, 10 SB) until his season was ended by a brutal ankle injury suffered on a stolen base attempt. Still only 19, Santana is long and lean at 6'2" and 160 pounds, but has plenty of time to add some weight as he advances.
Santana's hitting approach for such a young player is very mature, evidenced by his solid BB rates, and he has good bat speed and power for such a thin frame. He complements his hitting skill with tremendous speed and a great arm that make him a plus defender in center field and a constant threat on the basepaths. In a short time, Santana has already flashed the makings of an outstanding 5-tool player, and was ranked as the 7th best prospect in the Yankee system by Baseball America last week after being ranked as the #2 prospect in the GCL in 2011 behind another Yankee teammate. But his injury was a serious one, and it's still unknown how that will affect him in 2012. Early reports have him on schedule to start the season, but I expect the Yankees to err on the side of caution and ease Santana back into things in Staten Island. If he shows he's fully recovered, expect a quick promotion.
22) David Adams- 2B- Double-A TrentonHe hasn't played at the Double-A level since suffering a bad foot/ankle injury (sound familiar?), but before that injury David Adams may have been the best position prospect in the Yankee system not named after the son of God. He's a right-handed hitter who was consistently in the .290-.300 BA range with an OBPCano. At worst, Adams projected and probably still does project as a solid backup infielder, even at 24 years of age.
Adams started working his way back from the injury this year with limited time in the GCL and High-A Tampa, but amassed only 121 PA. His blossoming gap power was nowhere to be found in Tampa (only 3 XBH in 57 PA, all doubles), suggesting that he's still not quite back to full strength. Adams is scheduled to arrive in Tampa early to continue his rehab work before Spring Training begins in 2012, and injury or not, the Yankees thought enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. I would imagine Adams will start the season in Tampa again to test out the ankle and see how he feels, and if all signs are positive we can expect to see him back in Trenton before long.
21) Cito Culver- SS- SS Staten IslandThe much-maligned 1st-round pick of the 2010 draft continues to try to silence the critics. Culver posted a respectable .312 wOBA in 2010 between the GCL and Staten Island, and put together a solid campaign for SI again in 2011, hitting .250/.323/.337, good for a .324 wOBA, in 312 plate appearances. The low SLG is a bit of a concern, but adding some weight to his 6'0" frame could help add some pop to his bat, as could some refinement to his switch-hitting swing. What he lacks in power, though, Culver makes up for offensively with his ability to draw walks (9.6% BB rate in 2011) and his speed on the basepaths.
Anybody still looking to criticize Culver or the Yankees for taking him should remember that he'll enter the 2012 season still just 19 years old. And a comparison of his 2010 totals to his 2011 show that he's trending in the right direction, especially in regard to his decreased K rate, down to 18.3% this past season. He'll never make any of us forget Derek Jeter in his prime with the bat, but Culver is more than capable of being an everyday shortstop at the next level thanks to solid range and a very strong throwing arm. And being so young, he's got plenty of time to improve his hitting and at least be able to step into the box at the Major League level and not get the bat knocked out of his hands. The next step is to see how Culver handles a full season of games, and that should start in 2012 with a promotion to Low-A Charleston.
** Check back tomorrow afternoon for spots 20-16. **
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
