The Captain Says Happy 4th Of July

(Awwww, how festive.  Courtesy of The AP)

And I do too.  I hope everyone has enjoyed a safe and fun Independence Day.  And what better way to cap it off than to have The Captain return to the lineup tonight and resume his quest for 3,000 hits?  Well I suppose we could start fixing the economy and creating more jobs, but the Jeter 3,000 hits thing is a close second.

In all seriousness, despite him being a shell of his former self at this point and in no way deserving of being the leadoff hitter over Gardner, it IS good to have Jeter back in the lineup.  It just looks right with his name in the box score, and at least we know he won't botch any of the plays he does make.  Those plays have been a little too brutal to watch with Nunez and Pena at short these last couple weeks.

P.S.- I want that jersey and I want it now.

The $900,000 Man Hasn't Missed A Beat

Well it certainly looks like the doctors did a great job of rebuilding that hammy, huh?  Bartolo Colon returned to the rotation yesterday afternoon and picked up right where he left off.

6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K, 80 pitched (56 strikes)

That's pretty much the type of line he was putting up before he left, save for maybe another inning or two, but Colon continues to make Cash look like a genius.  Now it's Cash's other offseason diamond in the rough to complete the sweep today.  Go get 'em, Freddy.

(Kevin Long taugh him everything he knows.  Courtesy of The AP)

P.S.- Forget everything I said in the post below about who's coming up and who's going down.  The Yankees chose to send Brien Gordon to Triple-A SWB yesterday and keep Noesi in the 'pen.  Good call.

The Picture Starts To Clear Up As Arms Return To The Roster

(Sorry, Ivan.  I thought you were going to stick around.  Courtesy of Charles Wenzelberg/NY Post)

Bartolo Colon is scheduled to start this afternoon's game against the Mets, taking back the rotation spot that had been held by Brien Gordon over the last couple outings.  Phil Hughes is probably only another week or 2 away from joining him back in the rotation, leaving the Yankees with a decision to make on who keeps the 5th rotation spot and who gets bumped.  Joel Sherman of The Post helped shed a little light on where the Yankees are leaning when it comes to that decision:

"...the Yankees are leaning strongly toward sending Nova to Triple-A to reinsert Hughes, I have learned....

The lingering fear remains about Colon and Garcia making it through a season physically, and, really, Hughes is now in the same category. By putting Nova at Triple-A along with Hector Noesi (who is to be demoted today to make room for Colon) and Adam Warren, the Yankees would have adequate protection for the inevitable breakdown; with Nova the obvious first choice for a return."

On the one hand, this decision makes sense.  Colon certainly has proven he is worthy of a spot, and Freddy Garcia has also exceeded expectations.  And with the commitment the Yankees have made to Hughes (and with memories of the mishandling of Joba still not dissolved), it goes without saying that he will be in the rotation and not shuttled back to the bullpen.  With Colon and Garcia being as cheap as they are, pitching as well as they are, and being the biggest health question marks, there's no reason for the Yankees to not continue to roll them out there until they blow up or get hurt again.  And if/when that happens, it's to the team's benefit to have Nova and Noesi already stretched out and ready to step in and fill the gap rather than sitting in the bullpen.

On the other hand, the argument could be made that this decision doesn't exactly fit in with the "best chance to win" philosophy that is supposed to dominate decision making at the Major League level.  Sure, Brien Gordon had solid relief numbers in Triple-A, and we've already covered the return of the Meat Tray.  But are those 2 really better pitchers than Nova and Noesi?  Noesi, save for one disastrous outing, has looked very good working out of the 'pen, and there has always been the thought by some that Nova's stuff could play up out of the pen, helping to eliminate his low K/9 rate he has as a starter.  And with the litany of injuries suffered already by major bullpen guys, isn't it to the team's benefit to have better pitchers filling those gaps in the bullpen?

All in all, I think the Yankees are making the right call here.  I honestly believed it was a foregone conclusion that Gordon would be DFA'd once Colon came back, but if the Yankees are committed to keeping Nova and Noesi stretched out as starters then it makes sense to keep Gordon around for the time being.  I will say, though, that I am going to be a bit more uneasy knowing that if Garcia or Hughes or A.J. has a bad start, we're going to see Mitre and Gordon coming in to put out the fire instead of Nova or Noesi.

Return Of The Meat Tray

In the words of Suzyn Waldman, "OH MY GOODNESS, GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!!  SERGIO MITRE IS ON THE ACTIVE ROSTER, ANNOUNCING THAT HE IS BACK!!!  OF ALL THE DRAMATIC THINGS!!!..."

That's right, kiddies.  The Meat Tray is back.  Back in our lives for another interesting go-round as a marginal mop-up reliever.  Hey, it beats having to watch Buddy Carlyle stumble and bumble his way through an inning, right?  I'm not ashamed to say that I am hoping and praying for some garbage time innings this weekend just we can get a Meat Tray experience.

P.S.- Isn't every inning of a game involving the Mets considered garbage time?  RIMSHOT!!!

New Month Linkapalooza

In honor of the changing of the months, and the upcoming 4th of July weekend, we're going to take a quick lap around the Yankosphere.  It's what the founding fathers had in mind when they wrote the Declaration of Independence.

- Alphonso at It Is High... takes a jab, and a funny jab at that, at the job Eduardo Nunez has done as Jeter's replacement.  It's funny because it's true.

- In the same vein as that post, Brien at IIATMS takes a more statistical look at the Jeter vs. Nunez debate and shows that, despite his decline, Jeter is the better player.  My 2 cents on the matter?  I think Jeter is the better everyday option, even though I do like Nunez for some reason.  But that doesn't mean he should be hitting leadoff.

- Chad at LoHud has the latest injury updates on the Yankee walking wounded.  First Hughes, now Jeter.  The Thunder roster is getting STACKED.

- Mike at RAB makes a case for the Yankees adding Mike Adams to the 'pen.  I like me some Mike Adams, so I would support that move.

- Double dose from the crew at TYA.  First, Matt Imbrogno tries to determine who the odd man out should be with the soon to be overcrowded rotation.

- Second, Mike J-R digs deeper into the wOBA statistic.  Fair warning to old-time baseball people:  You will not want to read this.  Also, you're idiots for not recognizing its value to the game.

- William at The Captain's Blog looks at the Yankees' first half and tries to predict how they'll do the rest of the way.

- Lastly, we've got 2 separate and very entertaining interviews with MiL director Mark Newman.  First, Mike Ashmore gets the scoop on a wide variety of topics, including injury rehab for guys like David Adams, Jeremy Bleich, and Graham Stoneburner, what the deal is with Brackman, and the philosophy regarding handling young pitchers.

- Sensei John Kreese of NoMaas also touched on a ton of points in his interview with Newman.  Definitely a must read.  I was particularly interested to read Newman's take on the "Brien Gordon over the Triple-A guys" decision.

Beast Mode

It's one thing to throw 7.2 shutout innings against a good offensive team.  It's another thing to throw 7.2 shutout innings against a good offensive team while striking out 13 batters.  And it's a completely different thing to throw 7.2 shutout innings against a good offensive team while striking out 13 batters and having all 13 Ks being swinging.  CC Sabathia is a monster.  THE POWER OF THE PARACHUTE PANTS COMPELS YOU!!!!

Now somebody hit the fucking music!!!

Yankees Trying To Give The Brewers A Chance Today

This afternoon's lineup, via LoHud:

1) Brett Gardner- CF
2) Nick Swisher- RF
3) Mark Teixeira- 1B
4) Robinson Cano- 2B
5) Jorge Posada- DH
6) Andruw Jones- LF
7) Eduardo Nunez- SS
8) Francisco Cervelli- C
9) Ramiro Pena- 3B

No Horse, no C-Grand, and no Martin should be enough to level the playing field today, right?  I mean, it's the least the Yankees can do to try to make things fair since they have Carsten on the hill today.  Anybody who still calls them the "Evil Empire" should wake up and smell the B-Team lineup.

P.S.- Francisco Cervelli still sucks.

What's Really Going On With Russell Martin?

(Looks like a decent swing to me.  Courtesy of The AP)

As I watched last night's tremendous display of baseball by the Yankees and laughable ineptitude of the Brewers, I took notice of Russell Martin's line when he stepped in for his first at-bat and was instantly reminded of a post topic I wanted to cover last week and didn't get around to.  That topic being just what the hell is up with Martin?  He started the year hitting like a machine and making Cash look like a genius for signing him.  Since then, he's been bothered by some injuries and his production has dropped off significantly.  Observe:

- Mar/Apr- .293/.376/.587, 85 PA, 10 XBH, .424 wOBA, 170 wRC+
- May- .200/.333/.347, 90 PA, 5 XBH, .322 wOBA, 100 wRC+
- June- .176/.271/.176, 59 PA, 0 XBH, .219 wOBA, 29 wRC+

I'm well aware that his torrid April wasn't sustainable, but I also didn't expect him to fall off a cliff as bad as he has since then.  from 170 wRC+ to 29 isn't just slumping.  That's falling right off the face of the earth.  So what is there in the numbers that can explain this dramatic decline in production?  For starters, we know he's not pressing at the plate and swinging too much, because the one thing Martin has done is consistently walk.  His BB rate doubled from April to June (8.2% to 16.7%), and he's still at a very nice 10.2% rate this month.  He also doesn't seem to be making much weaker contact than he did earlier in the year as his LD% has gone from 19.0% in Mar/Apr to 18.2% this month.

Martin could very well be suffering from the same BABIP luck that Teix is right now, and there is some support for that.  His value was at its highest, .281, in the first month of the year, and is currently sitting at a measly .205 in June.  The percentages also show that Martin is hitting more groundballs and fewer flyballs this month than he has all year, so it seems reasonable to expect that, even if they are decently struck balls, if they're on the ground there's a good chance they're going to produce more outs than hits.  And you definitely aren't going to be racking up any extra bases hits with the ball on ground more, no matter how fast you are.

My thought is that Martin is still probably feeling the effects of his earlier injuries, and while they aren't enough to keep him out of the lineup nor produce any significant holes in his swing, they might be just enough to have him keep them in the back of his mind when he's at the plate and adjust his approach slightly so as not to re-aggravate the injury.  That combined with the resulting increased GB rate should logically add up to a lower BABIP and lower all around offensive numbers as a result.  And just as it would have been insane to expect him to put up a .963 OPS all season, it would also be stupid to think that Martin will stay in this prolonged slump for the rest of the year.  Sooner or later things have to balance out and we'll probably see him back around the .250/.350/.410 line.

Teix Making The Most Of The Hits He Does Get

(And exhale.  Good.  Courtesy of The AP)

Here's your food for thought on a Wednesday morning.  Check out where Mark Teixeira ranks amongst the 160 qualifying players in MLB in some offensive categories:

HR- 24 (Tied for 1st)

RBI- 62 (Tied for 4th)

ISO- .296 (5th)

SLG- .542 (12th)

wOBA- .388 (19th)

wRC+- 145 (18th)

BABIP- .214 (158th)

And right there is your smoking gun, ladies and gentlemen.  Mark Teixeira is being cursed by some horrific BABIP bad luck.  Not only is he 3rd to last out of all MLB qualifiers, he's a full 16 BABIP points behind the guy ahead of him, Alex Rios.  With a value like that, he should be putting up Jorge-type numbers (no offense, Jorge), not ranking in the top 2-12.5% in the most important offensive categories.  People are going to look at the .246 BA and the sub-.900 OPS and assume Teix is having some kind of Rob Deer-like garbage year where he's either a homer or an automatic out, but that simply isn't the case.

The Yankees as a team hit .282 on balls in play.  Imagine what Teix's numbers would look like if he was just hitting that!  We wouldn't be talking about him possibly getting squeezed out of the All Star Game for Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, and Miguel Cabrera.  We'd be talking about Teix being the runaway favorite for AL MVP and possibly knocking in 150 runs this year.

Now I'll be fair and admit that maybe Teix is guilty of becoming a little pull happy with the short porch at The Stadium, and so he could be contributing to his own bad luck.  After all, both his BABIP and BA numbers dropped off last year from where he was in '09 while his power stayed the same.  But Teix is too good a hitter to be wallowing away in the Chone Figgins and Kurt Suzuki levels of BABIP mediocrity.  Sooner or later, some of these balls have to start finding gaps and green space instead of gloves.  And when they do, watch out.

Rotation Upgrade Options- External (NL Edition)

We touched on some potential AL targets as the deadline creeps ever closer.  Today I'll touch on some of the NL names who've been mentioned in connection with the Yankees. 

Wandy Rodriguez- The Astros lefty has been a rumored target for the Yanks going back to last year and during this past offseason before he re-upped with Houston.  Despite his earlier elbow issues, Rodriguez is once again having a solid year for the offensively-challenged Astros.  His 3.21/3.94/3.48 ERA/FIP/xFIP line is good and his 2.46 BB/9 are down from last year.  He isn't going to light up the radar gun with his fastball, but his offspeed stuff is killer and he's a lefty, something that could come in handy down the stretch against the Sawx.  The downside is that he's already 32, and with 2 more years on his deal he doesn't exactly fit into future plans that may revolve around getting younger.

Ryan Dempster- He's an NL lifer, he turned 34 this year, he doesn't generate as many swings and misses as he used to, and he's giving up a shit ton of HRs.  But for some reason, Dempster's name has come up this year, probably if for no other reason than the Cubs suck and they'll probably be sellers at the deadline.  Dempster has been snakebitten by bad BABIP luck, and his FIP (4.15) is a full run lower than his 5.31 ERA, but I just don't see the value of bringing over an older pitcher with diminishing stuff to the AL East.  The $14 mil player option for 2012 would also be a turn off for me but there is something to be said for his proven track record, even if the Yankees have already stated they aren't interested.

Carlos Zambrano- Another guy who the Yanks have expressed 0 interest in and with good reason.  On top of being vastly overrated and overpaid at this point in his career, Carlos Zambrano is a legitimate nutcase.  And with the contract he has right now, he's not worth bringing over for all the potential baggage that comes with him, even if his 1.7 WAR would be the 2nd highest amongst Yankee starters.  The big drop in K/9 this year (6.00) is another concern for me and probably the Yankees as well.  The Cubs would be happy to rid themselves of this dude, but Cash would be wise to hang up the phone as soon as he hears the "Zam-" part of his name.

Hiroki Kuroda- Of all the potential options, AL or NL, Kuroda might be the best option, both in terms of production and what it might take to get him.  Kuroda has been amongst the most consistent and undervalued starters in the NL for years now and he's continuing that trend in 2011, soldiering along with a 3.10/3.82/3.55 line and a solid K/BB ratio.  He, like Wandy, won't blow you away with his stuff, but it's better than average and he throws strikes.  Because of the ongoing Dodger money saga and the fact that he's a FA after this year, Kuroda could come cheaper than many of the other options (Phelps and another mid-level pitching prospect perhaps).  For some stretch run help, that might be a worthwhile investment for the Yanks. 

Shout out and link to Larry Koestler's post on Rodriguez and Kuroda on TYA yesterday.  Check that out for more in depth analysis of those 2.

A Huh-YUGE Series Starts Today

The 3-gamer starting today at The Stadium might very well be the most important series of the season for the Yankees.  And there's a very simple reason for that.  The Yankees are playing the Milwaukee Brewers and that gives me plenty of opportunities to talk shit and act like a jackass around the office to pretty much everybody I work with (minus a few Cubs fans).

For those who don't know, I live and work in the greater Milwaukee area.  I live about 10 minutes from Miller Park.  But for some reason, people around here seem to think that those 2 facts automatically mean I have to give up my love for the Yankees and become a Brewers fan.  The fact that I'm originally from CT, and the NY side of CT at that, and that almost my entire family is Yankee fans means nothing to them.  I can't tell you the number of times guys around the office try to start conversations with me about how the Brewers are doing or how that game went last night.  My stock response?  "Fuck the Brewers."  I couldn't give a shit less about the Brewers if they won every game or lost every game.  So to have the opportunity to walk around and talk crap to everybody here is an opportunity I'm dying to have.

The only problem is, the Brewers are actually playing some decent baseball this year.  Their rotation has been solid thanks to the additions of Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, 2 pitchers with whom the Yankees are familiar, and despite the glaring holes in their lineup the combination of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is more than enough to carry a team on days where they both have big games.  The Brewers' big weakness, though, is their middle relief.  That group of clowns shouldn't be pitching in a Double-A All Star Game let alone the Majors, so if the Yankees can continue to be patient and work the starters, they should have plenty of chances to tee off late in games.

So this is my plea to you, Yanks.  Go out and kick some ass.  At least take 2 out of the 3 games of this series, preferably the first and third games.  I have about 8 different Yankee shirts in my closet and a couple of different hats, and I'm itching to turn the office into a goddamn Yankee fashion show over the next 3 days.  Friday will be especially sweet if CC can shut the Brewers down and I can rock the CC shirt into work to really twist the knife.  Yes, there are some people here who still haven't gotten over CC signing with the Yanks in free agency.  For some reason they think he's an idiot for taking the Yankees money over the Brewers' $100 mil offer.  I know, it's pathetic.

So make me proud, boys.  Give me a justifiable reason to be a dick at work.  And for the 2nd time in 2 days, hit the music!!!

Rotation Upgrade Options- External (AL Edition)

A few weeks ago I touched on some of the possible internal candidates for a rotation upgrade in the event that Ivan Nova pitched his way out a job.  Since then he has pitched very well (yesterday not included), but with Cash's decree that the Yankees are looking for pitching help and Nova's consistent inconsistency, he still remains a candidate to be replaced.  With Colon and Hughes coming back within the next month, though, the possibility of a trade has diminished a bit, but it's still worth examining the names out there who the Yankees could be interested in.

John Danks- The White Sox lefty was a name we've heard a lot before going on the DL this weekend with an oblique injury.  His 3-8 record doesn't do him justice, as he's put up a 4.21/4.14/3.97 tripleslash in 94 IP over 15 starts this year.  His K rate is low (6.22), but he also only walks 2.68 guys per 9.  He also has a team friendly contract this year and is arbitration eligible in 2012.  He'll probably require more in terms of prospects than other guys because he's young and good, but the Yanks would get another year of team control if they felt the Killer Bs weren't ready next year.  At best, he could become the 3rd best starter on the team, maybe 2nd depending on what happens with Colon.  At worst, he's still better than Nova.  He should be at or near the top of the list when he comes off the DL as the summer progresses.

Edwin Jackson- He strikes out more guys than Danks (7.78 K/9 this season), but also walks more and always has.  But overall this has been a strong season for Jackson, who has been bitten by some bad BABIP luck (4.13 ERA to a 3.08 FIP).  He has good stuff and is still young at 27, but would basically be a rental as he is set to become a FA after this season.  Before the season he probably could have been pried for lesser guys, but with the way he's been pitching, he could cost the Yankees one of the crop of solid Triple-A arms and another guy.  If the Sox fall out of competition in the AL Central before the deadline, that would help bring the asking price down.

Francisco Liriano- The Yankees have been linked to him for a while now, ever since rumors started going around this past offseason that Minnesota was shopping.  Judging by what they've gotten from him this year, they should have moved him when they had the chance.  He's got a 4.98/4.22/4.23 line this year and is walking almost 5 batters per 9.  When you consider that one of his starts was a no-hitter and another almost was, those numbers could look even worse if he pitched to the averages.  His stuff just doesn't seem right this year, and he's always been a question mark in terms of durability and effort.  I just don't see how the Yankees would want to add him, but he is a lefty and they could probably get him for cheaper now that he's pitched so poorly in the first half.

Dan Haren- He was a big trade target rumor at last year's deadline and ended up going to the Angels, seemingly for peanuts.  And he's pitched very well for Anaheim this year, but with them sitting 3rd in AL West and trending downward thanks to their punchless offense, they could be looking to deal at the deadline.  He's lost a little bit of the bite on his stuff since his early days, but Haren can still get it done with the cutter to the tune of a 3.05/2.74/3.05 line and an almost 5.5/1 K/BB ratio.  Haren would slot in right behind CC as the #2 starter, but he won't come cheap.  Last year the rumor was Joba, ManBan, and a couple of other guy for Haren, so with Joba out now you have to imagine the deal starts with ManBan and maybe includes Montero or Sanchez to even get talks started.  A steep price to pay, but for somebody who still has a few years of team control left, it could be worth it.

Spitting Hot Fire

Some food for thought on a Monday off day morning:

- The Horse in June- .333/.427/.613 in 75 ABs w/ 20 RBI.

- Robbie Cano in June- .307/.365/.466 in 88 ABs w/ 16 R.

- Gardner in June- .347/.420/.500 in 72 ABs w/ 8 XBH.

- Jorge in June- .389/.424/.537 in 54 ABs w/ 8 RBI.

- Swish in June- .316/.433/.632 in 76 ABs w/ 18 RBI and 17 BB.

Combine that with Teix and C-Grand having productive months and the offense is really starting to come together.  The patience and clutch hitting is starting to catch up with the HR rate, and the Yankee lineup is not one people are excited about facing.  CC is still throwing gems, D-Rob is flourishing in the setup role, and Mo is striking out the side like it's 1996.  Yes indeed, it's good times all around.  Somebody please hit the music!

A Very Special Guest At Old Timers' Day Today

The Bombers look to close out another series win today on Old Timers' Day, a Yankee Stadium tradition that is always cool for the fans.  The list of guys coming back to participate is a long and decorated one, and you can find the entire list right here, but there is one first timer in particular who is going to be the center of attention today as he makes his return to the park and the team that made his career.

That's right, ladies and gentlemen, Clay Bellinger returns to The Stadium today.  Back to the place where he made his name as a .193/.257/.363 career hitter with 12 HR during the late 90s and early 2000s on his way to 2 World Series championships.  To say he was a key cog to the World Series-winning teams of '99 and 2000 would be a vast understatement, as it was Bellinger's 69 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR in 200+ plate appearances that drove the team to victory in the Subway Series in 2000.  To have Clay step foot on the grass of the new Stadium is a perfect way to tie a bow on his great career and it should be a great experience for all the young fans who don't remember his heydays.

Oh yeah, Joe Torre and Bernie Williams are coming back to participate for the first time today too.  But who cares about that, right?

Phil Hughes Solid In 2nd Rehab Start

Solid really is the best way to describe Hughes' outing for Double-A Trenton last night.  His pitch limit was 75 and he got to 72 through 3.1 IP, giving up 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, and striking out 3.  He was consistently sitting 92-93 with the fastball and still being clocked at 91 when he was removed in the 4th.  He didn't light the world on fire, but he also didn't look terrible.  Definitely on the right path.

Cash was at the game to watch Hughes and was quoted as saying Hughes will make "a few more" starts before returning to the Yankees.  Factor in off days and regular rest and we're probably looking at about 3 weeks before we see Hughes back .

1 Cent Each For The 2 Stories Of The Day = My 2 Cents

Jeter Injury-

"I can't tell you right now when he will be ready," Cashman said. "He is getting treatment every day and feeling better, but he can't run and can't swing the bat." Cash via The Post)

This is bad news for Jeter and the race to 3,000, but probably good for him long term and good for the Yankees.  Guys who have had these injuries all say it can stay with you for the rest of the year, so if Jeter is getting better slowly, the Yanks might as well keep him out as long as it takes to get the calf back to 100%.  And it's not like the team is struh-gull-ing without his ridiculous groundball rate at the top of the order, so there should be no rush to get him back into the lineup.

Francisco Rodriguez To The Yanks?-

"If I am going to be traded, obviously I want the opportunity to close out games, but if it's going to be good teams like the Yankees or the Rays, and it's going to be for two months, I can go out there and help them out."  (Rodriguez, via The Daily News)

No, no, no.  A thousand times no.  I don't care what his numbers are, I don't care what his K rate is, and I don't care about the Yankee bullpen injuries.  I do not want this guy on the team at all.  He isn't better than D-Rob and shouldn't supplant him as the setup man, so there's really no need to sacrifice a prospect, even a lower level one if that's all it takes, to add a piece that isn't needed.  With the number of arms they have available and the fact that Hughes and Colon will be coming back to the rotation within a month or less, the Yankees have the internal flexibility to keep the bullpen stocked.  By now they should have learned their lesson about going after high-priced relievers.  It's just not worth it.

And Francisco Rodriguez is just a dick.  Keep him with the garbage in Flushing where he belongs.

What The Hell Is Wrong With Andrew Brackman?

(Does that stretch help him throw more strikes?)

Earlier in the week this post was going to be about how Andrew Brackman's struggles as a starter in Triple-A led to him being demoted to the bullpen and now possibly in line for an '07 Joba-like late season call up.  But then he went and dumped his drawers again last night, giving up 4 hits and 3 ER in less than an inning and continuing what has been an ugly stretch of pitching for him this year.

The 2011 numbers are pretty hideous to look at: 58 IP, 60 H, 45 BB, 6.98 ERA, 5.87 WHIP, and just 3 starts of 6.0 IP or more out of 11.  But it is the trends over his entire MiL career that are even more startling.  Since breaking in 2009 in Low-A Charleston, Brackman's K/9 rate has decreased every year from 8.69 to 7.14 this season.  That number still isn't bad, but a general decrease in strikeouts at each level doesn't predict future success in the big leagues.  The walk rate, which was a problem in '09 then fixed last year, is back up to an insane 6.98 BB/9 this year, and surely the major contributing factor to his horrible performance this year as his BABIP is actually at a career low this season at .306.  Brackman is just putting too many guys on base via the free pass and then paying for it when he does give up hits.

The prevailing thought would be that putting him in the bullpen could help fix the command issues.  Brackman could focus on using just 1 or 2 pitches and have them play up in shorter work.  But so far, that hasn't been the case and Brackman has all but pitched himself out of any kind of consideration for a late season call up in 2011.  Let's not forget that this kid was amongst the group being talked about and looked at for the 5th starter's spot coming out of ST and now he's a bullpen afterthought.  He still has value and could turn things around, but something needs to change with his approach to the game and somebody needs to change it now.  If you can't throw strikes, you aren't going to make it very far.

Best Thing To Read On An Off Day

With no game to preview, the Yankosphere is busy catching up on other topics of interest surrounding the team, everything from the latest ASG voting tallies, MiL players, Phil Hughes' return, etc.  But the best thing I've read today is Mike Axisa's post at RAB about the Jesus Montero situation and why the Yankees need to stop fooling around and call the kid up.  Check some of the great points that Mike makes:

"The kid [Montero] has 756 plate appearances at Triple-A to his credit and he’s a .290/.348/.480 hitter at the level.  Robinson Cano didn’t hit that well in Triple-A, neither did Melky Cabrera or Bernie Williams or Jorge Posada or pretty much any position player the Yankees have called up in the last 20 years....

All this stuff about him being frustrated and lacking effort isn’t a sign of some greater problem either, even though it will be spun that way. Have you ever been stuck at a job when you know there’s no promotion to be had? It freaking sucks....

He did what he had to do in Triple-A, let’s stop pretending he hasn’t and should instead be some kind of model person incapable of frustration and disappointment....

There’s an obvious path for him to get playing time in the big leagues which involves getting Frankie Cervelli's complete lack of positive impact off the roster and letting Montero serve as the backup catcher and part-time designated hitter. He could get four starts a week that way (two at catcher, two at DH), which is what the Yankees did with Posada a decade ago and how teams regularly broke in young players back in the day."

/stands up and applauds

I can't really think of anything to add to that post that makes it more right on the money than it already is.  I have been saying for a very long time now that Jesus should be on the 25-man and Cervelli should not.  Regardless of age, experience, tenure, or any other reason, at the Major League level it's about winning games and putting together the best 25-man roster that allows your team to do that.  And to Mike's point, Jesus has more than proven that he's a better all-around player than Cervelli and more than ready to make the leap to the Major League team.  He can learn more and work on his defense just as much on the New York Yankees as he can with the SWB Yankees, with the added benefit of getting used to life in the Majors so he can be fully adjusted next season and getting to be around one of the most talented and professional groups of players in the game.  Seriously, what benefits is he getting from trading hitting tips with Doug Bernier and Jordan Parraz (no offense, guys).

It really doesn't boil down to much more than that.  Cervelli sucks, Montero is better, and there are plenty of opportunities to get him the playing time he deserves.  Jesus benefits from it and the team benefits from it.  It's like Mike said:

"...the kid is so obviously ready and able to help. Stop fearing failure and let him do it."

Gordon Falls Behind In The Race To Keep A Rotation Spot

It wasn't a bad outing by any means last night for Brien Gordon.  But it also wasn't terribly good.  5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks, and just 3 swinging strikes over 5 innings is about what you'd expect from a replacement level lifetime Triple-A pitcher.  And although it's a nice story and it sounds like Joe is going to give him another start, the clock is already counting down to the return of Bartolo Colon and Phil Hughes to the rotation, and he's sitting last out of the bottom 3 in the contest.

Ivan Nova, who is seemingly on the hot seat every other week, is coming off his 8-inning masterpiece and has quietly put together a 4-start string of outings that have ranged anywhere from pretty good to goddamn good.  He's starting to use his secondary pitches more effectively so batters can't sit on his fastball and he's certainly done enough to guarantee himself at least another 2-3 turns through the rotation, covering at least the return of Colon.

Freddy Garcia has also rebounded nicely after his stinkbomb against Bahhston, allowing just 4 ER over 20.2 innings in his last 3 starts, including 7 innings of 0 ER ball in yesterday's day game that would have and could have been at least 7, if not 8, shutout innings if Ramiro Pena knew how to throw.  Freddy's portfolio of junk is well documented by now, but there's no denying that he's performed well above expectations this year, and his 3.30 ERA after yesterday is currently better than CC's.  He's in.

So it's looking like Brien Gordon might be left out in the cold when Bartolo returns, assuming it's right after his DL stint ends.  And then it will be Freddy and Nova fighting it out to keep a spot over Hughes when he is ready to return in a couple weeks.  But that might not be such a bad thing for Gordon or the Yankees.  Jeff Marquez went on the DL yesterday and Hector Noesi got absolutely shelled late in the nightcap.  Gordon's impressive Triple-A numbers were racked up as a relief pitcher, so there's a good chance he sticks around to fill a gap in the 'pen even after he gets booted from the rotation.

It's A Doubleheader, All The Way

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!  OHHHHHHHHH WOW!!!!  YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAH!!!!!  WHOOOOOO-HOOOOOO!!!!!

It's SO bright and vivid!!



In case you weren't already aware, there's a doubleheader today to make up for the rainout last night.  You got Freddy Garcia vs. Mike Leake at 12:35 EST/11:35 Central, and Brian "Killface" Gordon vs. Johnny Cueto in the nightcap at 7:10 EST/6:10 Central.

It's almost starting to look like a tripleheader!!

/starts hysterically crying

Brien Gordon Is F*cking Ready!!!

(Photo Courtesy of The AP)

HULK SMAAAAAAAASH!!!!!!

Seriously, forget "Eye of The Tiger." Gordon has the "Eye of the Vein-Popping Burrito Dump" down pat!  How did it take so long for this guy to make it to The Show with a look like that?  I'm not even in the same state and I'm scared to death right now.

I feel bad for the Cincinnati lineup tonight.  They better hope it keeps raining there.

Looking At The Newest Version Of The Bullpen

About a month ago, I went and addressed the state of the bullpen after Sourpuss Soriano hit the DL, and all signs were pointing to the bullpen still being in good shape.  Since then, the Yanks have lost Joba for the next year + and had Soriano moved to the 60-day DL, signifying a decreased likelihood of us seeing him in pinstripes again this year.  There has been some juggling and re-juggling of the 'pen over the last couple weeks and now there's some new faces and new roles that we need to familiarize ourselves with.  As we live and breath right now, the Yankee bullpen is:

- Mo
- D-Rob
- Luis Ayala
- Boone Logan
- Hector Noesi
- Cory Wade
- Jeff Marquez

Mo is Mo.  No need to discuss anything about him other than the fact that Joe still needs to be mindful of not overworking him and his 41-year-old arm.  And D-Rob, who has now assumed the setup role for Mo, is what he is.  He's a damn good relief pitcher with big balls and good stuff.  His walk rate is frightening to look at, but I can live with it if and when he continues to strand guys and strike out 15 batters per 9.

Ayala is an interesting and a much more important part of the bullpen puzzle right now because he's been very good so far.  He's pitched to a 1.59/3.27/3.70 tripleslash in 22.2 innings with a 7.15 K/9 and has been rewarded with more high-leverage innings recently.  His walk rate is a bit of a concern and we still haven't seen what he can do in true high-leverage situations, but he has earned some of Joe's confidence.

Also seeing more high-leverage work thrown his way lately is Hector Noesi, who, despite being overlooked for the Bartolo Colon replacement position, has continued to pitch well out of the bullpen.  His K rate also isn't great, and his higher FIP numbers indicate that his ERA isn't the truest depiction of how good he's been, but he has good stuff, has not appeared rattled by any of the situations he's been thrown into, and gets swings and misses when he needs them.  Between him and Ayala, Joe has 2 guys he can use for the 7th-inning role, since he's so in love with predetermined roles.  And that covers the solid holdovers.

A Super Night For Nova

Just when we think he's out of the rotation, he keeps pulling himself back in.

Last night was a masterful performance by Ivan Nova.  There's really no other way to say it.  He passed the eye test from anybody who watched the game, throwing all 4 pitches for strikes, and working brilliantly off of his changeup and that cutter/slider hybrid thing that we haven't seen much of lately.  And he certainly passed the stat test, putting up an 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K line on 105 pitches (70 for strikes), with a 15/3 GB/FB ratio, 10 swinging strikes (a 9.52%), and a first strike thrown to 18 of the 28 batters he faced.  Last night was easily Nova's best start of his career from any and every possible angle and once again solidified his spot in the rotation and reaffirmed the Yankees' and Nova supporters' (like myself) belief that he can be a productive pitcher at the Major League level.

The fact that Nova set up the heart of the Reds' order with his offspeed stuff the first time through the lineup helped him actually be stronger the 2nd and 3rd times through because he hadn't shown them the fastball yet, something that bucked what has been the trend and biggest issue with Nova this year.  He pitched with the kind of intelligence and attacking style that we haven't always seen from him, but when he does he's always been successful.  They aren't all world beaters, but Nova throws 4 pitches and when he's mixing them all in and throwing them for strikes, he's tough.  And yeah, it was a National League team, but it was one of the better teams in the NL and a team that features the defending NL MVP and a few other above average-to-very good Major League hitters, so last night was no fluke.

And don't look now, but Nova has a 4.13/4.14/4.23 tripleslash and has a high WAR than A.J. Burnett.  I'm more than happy to take that from the 5th starter.  For a night, Ivan was The SuperNova again.  And now I get to break out this Photoshop that hasn't been used in a while.

The Rebirth Of The "Who Should Hit Leadoff?" Argument Is Going To Come Soon. And It Ain't Gonna Be Pretty

(We should all be giving this guy low fives right now.  Courtesy of The AP)

Before the season started, this debate was one of the hottest Yankee-related topics, and people were generally in favor of Brett Gardner winning the job out of ST.  There was also general happiness when Gardner stumbled out of the starting blocks and Derek Jeter got the role.  But as the season has progressed and Jeter's 2010 decline looks to be the new rule for him rather than a one-year exception, and as Gardner rebounded back closer to his averages, the debate started to re-emerge.  And now with Jeter being on the shelf, Gardner absolutely lighting it up this month, and the Yankee offense being productive, the debate has once again turned decidedly in Gardner's favor, making for a potentially controversial decision when Jeter makes his return.

The statistical argument provides almost no support to the "Jeter should hit leadoff" theory.  In last week's "big picture" look at the team without Jeter, I touched on the fact that his numbers, bad as they were, were better as a leadoff hitter and even better when actually leading off an inning.  Unfortunately for Jeter, Gardner's line when batting first in the lineup (.255/.317/.382) is almost identical in much fewer ABs, and his line leading off an inning (.344/.420/.525 in 61 ABs) is even better than Jeter's.  And those numbers for Gardner are probably negatively affected a bit by his weak April.  Stretching the stats to cover the overall bodies of work of each player does even more to build a case for Gardner:

Jeter '11: .260/.324/.324  12 XBH  39 R  7.8% BB  83 wRC+  .297 wOBA in 293 PA

Gardner '11: .294/.372/.446  19 XBH  35 R  10.6% BB  124 wRC+  .357 wOBA in 236 PA

Any way you cut it, Brett Gardner has been the more productive player at the plate this season, bad start and all.  He's hit for a better average, hit for more power, and gotten on base at a much better clip than Jeter.  Sure, he's a disaster on the basepaths this year, but the sheer fact that he is on base more and the fact that he has better speed than Jeter means there are more opportunities for the team to score runs with him at the top of the lineup than The Captain.  From a statistical and pure logic standpoint, Gardner should be hitting leadoff over Jeter.

The reality of the situation, however, is that Jeter is going to get the leadoff spot back when he returns from the DL, because of who he is and the path to 3,000 career hits that he's currently on.  Joe has shown himself to be a very loyal manager to his older players, much like the previous Joe was, to a point way beyond where he rightfully should be, and I can't see him sticking Jeter in the 9-spot to complete his march to 3,000.

And this is where the interesting part of the debate will come in.  Joe was mostly praised for his decision to stick Jorge down in the lineup when he was struggling last month.  But now that Jorge has rebounded of late, Jeter will become the new weak link in the lineup, statistically speaking.  Based on his previous decision, Joe should move Jeter down and let Gardner hit leadoff, even against lefties, but how will that decision be received by the public?  Will he again be praised for putting the team's success over one individual player or will he be vilified for spitting in the face of the Almighty Captain and insulting his quest for 3,000 hits?  Jeter is much more of a fan favorite than even Jorge is, and the local writers will be chomping at the bit to get their 2 cents in on whatever decision Joe makes or doesn't make.

Jeter should really do the right thing and offer to move down in the lineup, as his traditional "team first" reputation would lead us to believe he would, but so far he has given no indication that this will happen.  Assuming he comes back, gets the leadoff spot, and continues to infield-hit his way to 3,000, the voices calling for Gardner are only going to grow louder, especially if Gardner continues to play well (the dude has a 1.126 OPS in June!!!).  At what point does Joe make the call?  Before 3,000?  After?  If after, how long after?  This is a very slippery slope that the Yankees are approaching, and it could become a major distraction moving forward.  Either one man will have to sacrifice (Jeter), or the whole team could end up sacrificing in the win column.

I'm just glad I'm not the one who has to make the call.

Sprained Shoulder For The Horse? Who Cares?

The big news last night in Yankeeland, besides the fact that they kicked the Cubs' candyasses all over Wrigley Field last night, came out early in the game when it was announced that, according to the ever knowledgeable anonymous clubhouse source, The Horse has been playing with a left shoulder strain for the past few weeks, with no clues as to when he hurt it or how severe the injury is.  I'm going to be honest with you, I didn't even realize horses, or centaurs for that matter, had shoulders.  I thought it was kind of like how your lap disappears when you stand up if you're a regular human being.  Walking on all fours like that would eliminate the shoulder from existence, right?  Wrong.  At least I learned something today.

Naturally, the guys on the ESPN "Sunday Night Baseball" broadcast were quick to jump on how this injury was negatively affecting his production and how he's only 4th on the team in HRs and so on and so forth.  And naturally, they and everybody else complaining about that are idiots.  They're missing the big picture.  And what that big picture says is that A-Rod has been playing much better over the last couple weeks, since he suffered this supposed injury, and the Yankees have been winning games since then.

May was a rough month for A-Rod.  He hit just .286/.325/.403 in 119 ABs with just 6 XBH, 12 RBI, and a 6/29 BB/K ratio.  Not exactly Triple Crown-caliber numbers, in baseball or in horse racing.  Fast forward to this month.  So far in 57 June ABs, The Horse is sitting at .263/.382/.561 with 9 XBH, 12 RBI, and a 9/14 BB/K ratio.  The numbers suggest that he's seeing the ball better, being more selective at the plate, and driving the ball when he makes contact.  Sure, the batting average looks a little down, but 2 more hits in those 57 ABs puts him at .298, so I'm sure there's some bad BABIP luck in there somewhere.

The point is, whatever problems The Horse is having with his shoulder aren't very big ones.  I can't imagine he's been having trouble with it since the beginning of May when he started to struggle because we would have heard something long before last night.  It's a minor injury, it isn't affecting his performance, and regardless of what his HR rate is this year, he's still on pace to score 100+ runs, drive in 100+ runs, and crack the 30-HR mark again.  And if you check the WAR rankings for AL 3rd basemen, you'll find The Horse galloping up at the top of the list, a full W ahead of 2nd place Youkilis and Adrian Beltre.

He's not on the DL and he's producing during a month when the Yankees are 11-6 so far.  In short, he's winning.  Chill out about the home runs.  It's not like the team total is suffering without a few more from him.