ALCS Breakdown: Benches & Bullpens

Yankee Bench:

Should be more of the same of what we saw in the division series, which wasn't much.  Whoever isn't in the lineup from the Marcus Thames-Lance Berkman DH platoon looms as a big late-game situational pinch hitter possibility, and that's really the extent of the major contributors.  Ramiro Pena is only there for injury insurance and Greg Golson will be the token "late-game RF defensive replacement/ pinch runner" guy and neither should see an at-bat if all goes to planned.  The one guy who could see some more time is Francisco Cervelli.  He caught A.J. today in his simulated game session and since we already know A.J. is getting a start, that gives Cervelli a chance to be in the lineup when he pitches.  If that happens, expect Jorge to DH that game and both Thames and Berkman will be on the bench to pinch hit for Cervelli late.  If Austin Kearns makes the cut for this round I would be shocked. 

Texas Bench:

This crew is a little deeper and a little more talented than the Yankee bench if you do a side-by-side comparison, and also received more playing time in the division series.  Ron Washington tinkered with his lineup almost every game and as a result 13 of the 15 position players on the ALDS roster got at least one at-bat.  Murphy, Borbon, and Francoeur are a 3-man platoon in left field with none being definitively better than the other.  Jorge Cantu could step in at first base for Mitch Moreland if Moreland struggles as he has far more experience and some past success as an everyday player, and Matt Treanor is a capable backup catcher.  The Rangers would be insane to only carry 10 pitchers for this series, so expect to see Andres Blanco or Esteban German or both off the roster for the ALCS.

Yankee Bullpen:

The pecking order has been clearly established after the ALDS.  Mo is at the top of the food chain with Kerry Wood slotted into the 8th-inning role, D-Rob and Boone Logan acting as the 6th- and 7th-inning bridges, and Joba being the next in line depending on situation and who is being rested.  Mitre will still be the main long man and Dustin Moseley will be the "use only in case of emergency (or blowout loss)" guy.  As we discussed here yesterday, adding Royce Ring or Ivan Nova for more depth would be a good move.

Texas Bullpen:

After being strong all season, the Ranger 'pen was more than a little shaky in the division series.  Only right-hander Darren O'Day had any success to speak of (2 IP, 0 runs allowed, 4 Ks).  Darren Oliver is a veteran the Yankees have seen before who they can use for one batter or multiple innings if needed, although his stuff isn't what it used to be.  Righty Dustin Nippert is a walking batting practice pitcher whose crummy regular season peripherals (1.68 WHIP, 1.38 K/BB ratio) translated over into his one disastrous ALDS appearance, and Alexi Ogando is an unknown commodity in terms of handling pressure situations.  Lefty Derek Holland has had a tough time transitioning from being a starter to a reliever so far, allowing 6 hits in 4.2 innings of work.

But perhaps the biggest question mark of all is closer Neftali Feliz, who has not looked sharp in either of his outings so far this postseason, walking the first 2 batters he faced in Game 1 of the ALDS and then completely melting down and blowing the lead in Game 3 before being taken out after retiring only 1 batter.  He also has the memory of his blown save and loss on August 11 against the Yankees to chew on while he tries to get his shit together for this series.  Feliz's recent struggles and the lack of a dominant lefty to match up with the Yankees big lefty hitters should both be huge causes for concern for Ron Washington and Ranger fans.

I'd Like To Say I'm Surprised...

... but with the way A.J.'s season has gone this year, it almost feels like I should have been expecting this to happen: 

"Pitching this afternoon in a simulated game in The Bronx, Burnett hit the first batter he faced, teammate Greg Golson, in the arm." (via the NY Post)

Jesus Christ on the cross, you have to be kidding me.  I might leave work early today to start stocking up on beer for A.J.'s start, be it Game 4 or 5.  Something tells me a standard 6-pack or even a 12er ain't going to be enough.

 ** UPDATE- 4:13PM: "It doesn’t more real than this: A.J. Burnett plunked two batters today. He got Greg Golson early, then he hit Austin Kearns late." (via LoHud)

And the list of beer to be purchased continues to grow.  If I don't blog anything after Burnett's start, you'll know why...

ALCS Breakdown: Lineups & Rotations

Thanks to Cliff Lee and Ian Kinsler we now know who the Yanks have to face to get back to the World Series.  If the regular season was any indication, it should be a very close series.  Let's take a look at the matchups, eh?

Yankee Lineup:

We all know the drill now after the last series.  The Yankee lineup is deep, talented, patient, and has the flexibility to match up well with any pitcher, regardless of which hand he throws with.  There really are no weak spots or easy outs anywhere 1-9, and even with Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner not showing a lot of pop in their bats in the ALDS, they can still work counts, they can still put the ball in play, and they are both adept at going the other way.  When you can do those things well, there is always the potential for good things to happen.  The Yankee lineup also showed it's ability to score runs however they have to, either by mashing (Teix, Berkman, Thames) or by playing smallball, stealing bases, sacrificing, and stringing hits together (C-Grand, Gardner, Jeter).  And if The Horse gets hot in this series, watch out. 

Texas Lineup:

One of the few lineups that can stack up with that of the Yankees in terms of power and talent, the Rangers can run out a 1-6 that is just as dangerous on paper as anybody's with Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler.  But the Ranger lineup does have a soft underbelly when you get to the 7-9 spots, as the combination of Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, Julio Borbon, Jeff Francoeur, Bengie Molina, and Jorge Cantu doesn't strike fear into the hearts of anybody and didn't hit particularly well against Tampa.  When you look at the numbers, there really wasn't a lot of production from the Texas lineup as a whole outside of Cruz and Kinsler, who combined to go 16-38 with 2 2Bs, 6 HRs, and 9 RBIs in the division series.  Hamilton, Guerrero, and Young will need to pick it up if the Rangers plan to hit with the Yankees over 7 games. 

Yankee Rotation:

 We know it's going to be CC, Andy, Phil, and A.J. in some combination, most likely from one of these 2 scenarios, and we know CC will be starting Game 1.  He was the weakest performer of the 3 that started in the division series, but should rebound against Texas, especially if he pitches on shorter rest, something he has excelled at throughout his career.  If Pettitte and Hughes can come close to matching what they did against Minnesota, that should be enough to overcome the potential A.J. meltdown in Game 4 or Game 5 that will linger over this series like a burrito fart in a small apartment.  These 4 had mixed results against the Rangers in the regular season, so it will be interesting to see how they approach the Ranger lineup.

Texas Rotation:

Thanks to their series against Tampa going the distance, the Yankees won't have to face Cliff Lee until Game 3.  The downside of that, though, is that he would line up to pitch Game 7 if it came to that.  The rest of the Texas rotation (C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter) pitched well in the ALDS, but didn't provide a whole lot of length.  Wilson lasted just 6.1 innings despite being very effective, and Lewis and Hunter only combined for 9 innings in their 2 starts.  All 3 have swing-and-miss stuff, but aren't particularly efficient.  They will make mistakes in the zone and they will walk people, which are 2 things that get you in big trouble against the Yankee lineup.  It will be interesting to see what Ron Washington does with Cliff Lee if his team faces elimination in a Game 6.

The Case For Adding A 12th Pitcher For The ALCS

After tonight, the Yankees will know where they'll be going to play Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday night.  But even without knowing who they'll face, the smart decision would be to alter the roster and add another pitcher in place of an unnecessary bench body.  Consider:

- From the time the ALDS ended to the time the ALCS starts on Friday, the Yanks will have had 5 full days of rest, which is plenty of time to help ease the bumps and bruises on the Jorges, Teixs, and Nick Swishers of the world, and is plenty of time to keep everybody else fresh and rested.

- The new ALCS game schedule for this year: play October 15th, 16th, off 17th, play 18th, 19th, 20th, off 21st, play 22nd, 23rd, while still providing enough rest for the regular position players, lessens recovery time for bullpen arms, especially with the 3 consecutive days in the middle of the series.  Joe won't have the luxury of going to D-Rob, Wood, and Logan 3 days in a row depending on pitch count.

- The Yankees played 10 1-run games against the Rays and Rangers combined this year in the regular season and 4 extra-inning games.  Combine close games, the potential for extra innings, and fewer off-days to recover for pitchers, and extra arms in the bullpen become more valuable to have.

- At some point, A.J. is going to be starting a game in this series, and his unpredictability makes him a huge risk.  Joe will likely have a quick hook on him if he blows up, so that's more innings that fall on the shoulders of the bullpen.

And when you consider that Joe didn't give a single at-bat to anybody on the bench in the ALDS, carrying 5 bodies just doesn't make a lot of sense for a longer series.  Thames is obviously staying since he and Berkman form the 2-headed DH monster, Cervelli is staying because you have to have a backup catcher, Ramiro Pena makes sense to have as an infield insurance policy because of A-Rod's injury history, and Joe likes to have Greg Golson there for a defensive replacement for Swish in the later innings.  That makes Austin Kearns the odd man out.  Gardner and C-Grand have both proven they can hold their own against lefties, and they both player better D than Kearns, so there's really not much of a chance for him to see any time on the field other than postgame handshakes and celebrations.

But who replaces him on the roster?  The 2 most likely candidates would be Royce Ring and Ivan Nova.  Ring would give the Yankees another lefty specialist to be used in late-game matchup situations when Boone Logan is already out of the game, and with his track record of early-inning success against the Rays in his 2 outings, Nova makes the most sense as an extra arm to provide innings if needed.  Whoever the Yankees choose, should they choose somebody (and they should), adding that 12th pitcher that can be used to help the team is much more valuable than an extra bench player that we know won't be used.

Ladies And Gentlemen, You're 4th Starter For The ALCS

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

If ever there was a picture that inspired less confidence in A.J. from my point of view, I have yet to see it.  We'll deal with how the full ALCS rotation should line up later in the week, but knowing we have A.J. included somewhere, I think we can all agree that winning 2 of the first 3 games is a must.

Allow Me A Quick Minute To Gloat

"Oh, the Yankees are in trouble this year.  The Yankees have so many questions.  They're rotation is no good after CC.  Andy Pettitte is hurt and looked terrible in his last start.  What are they doing with A.J. Burnett?  Phil Hughes threw too many innings.  Mariano was bad in September so he's clearly old and breaking down.  Derek Jeter can't hit anymore.  Who is going to play catcher?  A-Rod can't be as good as he was last year in the postseason.  Is Joe Girardi going to Chicago?  What about Joba?  Can the bullpen hold up in front of Mo?  They don't have homefield advantage for this series.  They played terrible in September.  They didn't go for the division.  Can they turn it on again?"  Blah, blah, blah, BLAH, BLAH, FUCKING BLAHHHHH!!!!!!

Suck it, ESPN.  Suck it, Sports Illustrated and SI.com.  Suck it, mainstream media.  Suck it, doubters from the Post, Daily News, NY Times, and every other NY-based literary outlet that spent more time pointing out the potential questions and potential problems instead of recognizing the year of success from those who were on the 25-man roster that perfectly predicted the series outcome.

CC Sabathia was the WORST STARTER of the 3 guys in the series and they still won.  You think that's going to happen again?  A-Rod had 1 FUCKING RBI in the series and they still won.  You think THAT's going to happen again?  They're already staggered their rotation and bullpen pecking order to keep the A.J.s and Jobas of the world included as little as possible.  They can match up with any pitcher, right- or left-handed.  I don't give a shit about the Rangers' lineup, the Rays' anything, or Roy Halladay and the rest of the Phillies' pitchers.  Like it or fucking not, the Yankees are the favorite to win the World Series again, just like they should have been to begin with.

Now back to your regularly scheduled postseason coverage...

Wrapping Up The ALDS

(Photo of C-Grand's well-earned champagne bath courtesy of The AP)

Now that the dust has settled and the champagne has dried, let's take a look back at the 3 keys to the series and see how we did, shall we?

1) Hitting Left-Handed Pitching

- Yankees for the series: 14-50, .280/.345/.460, 8 R, 6 XBH, 8 RBI, 5 BB
- Twins for the series:     11-50, .220/.286/.420, 6 R, 6 XBH, 5 RBI, 4 BB
Advantage: Yankees

2) Production from the Leadoff Spot

- Jeter: 4-14, 0 R, 1 RBI, .286/.286/.286
- Span: 4-13, 0 R, 0 RBI, .308/.308/.308
The splits are negligible.  Neither guy scored a run and neither guy drew a walk.  Push. 

3) Hitting w/ RISP

- Yankees for the series: 9-25 (.360), 1 XBH, 10 RBI
- Twins for the series:     2-18 (.111), 0 XBH, 1 RBI
Advantage: Yankees

So as far as the key factors, the Yankees won 2 of those 3 battles, having a decided advantage in the RISP category, which certainly was a major factor in their sweep.  If you look at the series in even broader strokes, the Yankees' advantage becomes even clearer.

Team Batting for the series:

- NY: .314/.351/.514, 11 XBH, 17 R, 7 BB
- Min: .216/.280/.330, 6 XBH, 7 R, 8 BB

The Yankees flat out out-hit the Twins in this series, as their deep and balanced lineup shown through.  Every Yankee player had at least 2 hits, and only Derek Jeter didn't score a run.  The Yankees also stole 4 bases to the Twins' 0.  They hit for more average, they hit for more power, they ran the bases better, and they hit better in key situations.

The trio of Teix, Swish, and Robbie Cano were particularly effective, going a combined 12-37 (.324) with 8 runs scored, 6 XBH, and 5 RBIs, erasing the memories of their collective 2009 postseason struggles.

On the other side, the Twins' big 4 of Mauer, Thome, Cuddyer, and Kubel went a combined 6-41 (.146) with 3 runs scored, 2 XBH (both by Cuddyer in Game 1), and 2 RBIs (also both by Cuddyer).  The heart of the Twins' order barely had a heartbeat.  Only Delmon Young hit will in the series and because everybody in front of and behind him hit so poorly, he only had 1 run and 0 RBIs to show for it.

Team Pitching for the series:

- NY Starters: 3-0, 20 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 5 ER, 15 K, 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
- Min Starters: 0-2, 15 IP, 23 H, 5 BB, 13 ER, 11 K, 7.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP

The Yankee starters were far superior to those of Minnesota, doing a better job of missing bats and limiting damage.  The discrepancy between their collective performances and stuff becomes even greater when you consider that 3 of the Yankees' 5 walks allowed were by CC in Game 1 and 7 of Minnesota's 11 strikeouts were by Liriano in Game 1.

- NY Bullpen: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 ER, 5 K
- Min Bullpen: 11 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 7 K, 0-1 (Crain L in Game 1)

The Yankee 'pen was also better than Minnesota, despite similar numbers in limited innings.  The Yankee 'pen didn't allow a single inherited runner to score, whereas Minnesota allowed a few key runs to come across.  And 3 of the 7 hits allowed by the Yankees were by Kerry Wood in Game 3.  Other than that, everybody was lights out, a sign of better stuff and making better pitches when the moment called for it.

At the end of the day, it isn't difficult or surprising to see why the Yankees won.  They hit better and they pitched better because they had the better players.  The Yankees executed their gameplans much better than Minnesota did and they had more to show for it.  Their starters gave them length and their bullpen shut the door on the Twins on the few chances they did create for themselves, and in between the Yankee batters got more hits, more extra-base hits, and more hits in big moments.  All that adds up to a pretty easily-explainable series sweep.  Now they get to sit back for another 2 days and watch Tampa and Texas duke it out for the other ALCS slot while the Twins go home and make tee times.

Game 3 Thoughts And Afterthoughts

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

- The 1st inning, despite the Yankees coming up scoreless, showed that they were in for some success against Duensing.  They hit 4 balls in the air, which is not what Duensing wants as a ground ball pitcher.

- Great at-bat by Cano in the bottom of the 2nd.  He squared up the pitch and just went with it as it was outside but caught a little too much of the plate.  It's at-bats like that that have people still saying Cano is going to win a batting title someday.

- Phil Hughes looked spectacular through 3 innings last night.  He was hitting his spots with the fastball, keeping it down in the zone, and getting ahead in the count.  Not to mention he was getting a lot of late swings on the fastball, so it had that trademark late life to it that Hughes thrives on.

- Flashback to the 1st inning and then think about what Swish and Teix did in the bottom of the 3rd.  They jumped all over pitches that were up in the zone and pounded them for hits.  A little bit of exorcising of the 2009 playoff demons for these guys in this series.

- From the "You Don't See That Every Day" Department: Mick Kelleher taking an errant throw right in the balls on Cano's infield single.  It looked bad on replay, but he ended up being OK.  Over/under on jokes about that play in the locker room:  15.

- The Marcus Thames homer in the bottom of the 4th: belt-high fastball on the outer half that, just like Cano's triple, caught too much of the plate.  Thames didn't try to do too much with it and just went with the pitch, depositing it in the RF bleachers.

- It was a painful night for Duensing, probably worse than his Game 1 loss from 2009.  He was up in the zone the whole night and couldn't consistently throw his off-speed stuff for strikes.  Biggest indicator of how bad he was: 0 swings and misses by Yankee hitters against him.

- Good stat by TBS in the 5th inning: the Twins put together back-to-back hits just once in the series leading up to last night's game.  They would put consecutive hits together in the 6th and 8th innings, but only had 1 run to show for it.  Tough to win when you can't string hits together, and tougher when the hits you do string are singles.  That stat is just as big a testament to how good the Yankee pitching was in this series as it was to how poorly the Twins hit.

- Big pitches by Hughes in the 5th after he got into a little trouble with 2 runners on.  He blew Cuddyer away with the fastball to strike him out and then challenged Valencia with a fastball up in the zone that Valencia couldn't get around on and he popped it up to first.  It was good to see Hughes stick with his bread and butter when he get into trouble.  Sometimes you want to see him change his approach a little more, but as good as the fastball was last night, that was the pitch to stick with and that's what he did.

- Speaking of changing things up, that's just what Hughes did with 2 on in the 6th, starting Jason Kubel off with a nasty curveball for a strike, then blowing him away with the fastball again.  After a while, the Twins almost seemed to resign themselves to the fact that they couldn't do anything with the heater and then Hughes mixes a curve in with RISP.  Brilliant call by the Yanks and great pitch by Hughes.

- More evidence of how keyed into the Twins' pitching the Yankees were last night: they didn't have their first 1-2-3 inning at the plate until the bottom of the 6th.  By then the game was pretty much over.

- Am I the only one that thinks the TBS commercial about the avocados where the baseball players and ump in the TV are yelling at the guy at the party is the lamest fucking ad ever?  Jesus Christ, that commercial sucks.  I feel uncomfortable watching it because it's so bad, like watching the tape from "The Ring" or something.

- Great swing by Swish on his homer in the 7th on a pitch that was low, but not quite low enough.  Also worth noting was the fact that that homer was the first time Ernie Johnson sounded excited calling a home run in the whole series.  Hey, better late than never.

- Despite the 6-run lead, it was a smart move by Joe going to Wood in the 8th.  His team was in command of the game, so you have to step on their throats and keep the pressure on.  Now Wood was completely awful as he couldn't throw the fastball for a strike and hung all of his off-speed pitches, but it was still the right move.

- Nice job by Boone Logan and D-Rob to clean up Wood's mess without furthering the damage.  They came in, attacked the hitters with fastballs, and got defensive swings for easy outs.  That's what they're there to do and they did it all series long.

- It's not even worth mentioning Mo closing out another playoff game, but I will anyway, just to remind all the people that said he was struggling and a question mark coming into the playoffs that he's Mariano Fucking Rivera, the best closer of all time.

- What can you say about Phil Hughes last night?  He was fantastic.  His fastball, which I said was the key to his success last night, was electric and he did a wonderful job of keeping it down in the zone and working both sides of the plate with it last night.  He rode it up the ladder when he had to, but for the most part he lived waist down with it.  There probably weren't more than 1 or 2 hard hit balls off of him last night and he did a great job of bearing down and sticking to his guns with runners on base.  Basically, he worked to his strengths and didn't try to do too much last night.  It's pretty good for your team when your 3rd starter gives you the best outing in the whole series.

- On the other side, the Twins obviously couldn't keep up with Hughes' heat last night, but I was surprised they never changed their approach against him.  They were content to just sit there and let him throw it for a strike, even if it wasn't strike 1.  At some point you have to take the bats off your shoulders and the Twins just didn't do it last night.  They stayed patient and let Hughes work himself into favorable counts where all they could do was put defensive swings on the fastball with 2 strikes.  Maybe it was them being committed to a gameplan, maybe it was them just giving up after they went down 5-0.  Whatever it was, it wasn't smart baseball and it made Hughes' job that much easier last night.

Play of The Game: Thames' 2-run HR in the bottom of the 4th

Just a crushing blow to the Twins, who were still in the game at that point despite it being painfully obvious that Duensing didn't have much.  It was only a matter of time before the Yankees struck big on him and Thames' homer was that strike.  He was looking first-pitch fastball and he did the best thing you could do with it.  That play seemed to suck the life out of the Twins and gave Hughes the cushion he needed to keep going out there and attacking with his fastball.

Player of The Game: Phil Hughes

How's this for a first career postseason start?  7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 6 K in a series-clinching win.  Pretty damn good if you ask me.  Funny how you didn't hear anybody on TV this morning talking about the Yankees' questions in the rotation, wasn't it?

Well that was easier than expected.  One series down, 2 to go for Title 28.  Now the Yanks get a couple days of rest to watch Texas and Tampa slug it out in Game 5 and gear up for the ALCS.

ALDS Game 3 Preview: Empire State Of Mind

Pitching Matchup: Hughes (18-8) vs. Duensing (10-3)

Starting Lineups:

NY: Jeter- SS, Swish- RF, Teix- 1B, A-Rod- 3B, Cano- 2B, Thames- DH, Posada- C, C-Grand- CF, Gardner- RF

Min: Span- CF, Hudson- 2B, Mauer- C, Kubel- RF, Young- LF, Thome- DH, Cuddyer- 1B, Valencia- 3B, Hardy- SS

3 Things To Watch For:

1) Hughes' Fastball Command

He might throw it too often sometimes instead of trusting his secondary pitches, but there's no denying that Phil Hughes' fastball is his most important pitch.  Where he throws it early on and whether or not he's hitting his spots with it will be a good indicator of just how geeked up he is in his first postseason start.  If he can stay calm and collected (which I think he can) and throw the fastball for strikes early, it will allow him to setup the rest of his pitches and work the Minnesota hitters.  If he can't find the command on the fastball and falls behind in too many counts, it makes the curve and the changeup (which will be a huge weapon against Minnesota's lefty hitters) less likely to be used and therefore less effective.  As always, it will be important for Hughes to mix up his pitches and pitch patterns, but everything has to work off of the fastball.

2) The Twins' Lefties

Through the first 2 games the Twins big 4 lefties (Span, Mauer, Thome, Kubel) are a combined 4-21 (.190) against the Yankee left-handed pitching, most of that against CC and Andy, .174 if you factor in the 2 left-handed at-bats by Orlando Hudson that ended in outs.  Well CC and Andy aren't throwing tonight and these guys will finally get to face a righty starter so how will they approach him and how successful will they be?  Those 4 are a combined 4-12 lifetime against Hughes with 4 walks, although they also have 0 XBH and 0 RBIs in those at-bats.  But those at-bats don't include anything from this season as the Twins did not face Hughes at all, and he is a different and better pitcher than what they have seen in the past.  For the sake of comparison, Hughes had a .235/.311/.417 tripleslash against this year facing left-handed hitters in 345 at-bats.  For the Twins to have any chance to win tonight, their big 4 have to wake up and do something against Hughes.

3) The Stadium

Normally I don't like to play up the intangibles and "homefield advantage" aspect of a game.  I mean, we can all see how far playing at home got Minnesota in the first 2 games.  But Yankee Stadium is a little different, especially in the postseason.  For some of these Twins it will be their first time playing in Yankee Stadium in the playoffs, and with their backs against the wall tonight, how they can handle that situation is worth noting.  How will Brian Duensing handle the pressure of 46,000+ fans screaming at him if he puts a few runners on base?  How will Danny Valencia handle that pressure if he hits with 2 on and 2 out late in the game?  Can the Twins' bullpen shake the memories of last October's failures in The Stadium?  Also, never count the Yankees out of a close game when they've got last ups at home.

Player To Watch: Phil Hughes

I hate to take the obvious choice here, but Hughes is the key tonight.  I have all the faith in the world that the Yankees will get hits and score runs off Duensing and his sore shoulder.  How effective Hughes is at holding leads given to him and not allowing the Twins to creep back into the game will decide who wins.  All the pressure if off of him after the Yankees won the first 2, so it's not like he has to go out and throw 7 or 8 shutout innings.  5-6 of 3-run ball should be more than enough to get the job done, especially with the stacked and rested bullpen behind him.  If Hughes can go out, throw strikes, not fall in love with the fastball late in count, and put hitters away, it should be a good night for him and the Yankees.

Take note of how many changeups Hughes throws tonight.  It was something he worked on in Spring Training and then we only saw it sparingly in the regular season.  It can be devestating against lefties and Hughes can't be afraid to throw it.


It's Game 3.  It's a chance for the Yankees to sweep and advance to the ALCS for the second year in a row.  And it's happening back in New York, the city of champions and the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.  It's incredibly cliche, but I don't give a shit.  Hit me with some Hova...

Game 2 Thoughts And Afterthoughts

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

- Once again Craig Sager kicks off the TBS broadcast by proving just how useless he is.  So Ron Gardenhire burned his jersey, Carl Pavano campaigned to wear the throwback unis, Denard Span ate steak instead of chicken, and Orlando Hudson's family held some lameass prayer circle before the game?  I.  Don't.  Give.  A fuck!  Tell me about lineup changes, tell me about how they're going to approach Pettitte, tell me something meaningful.  GAH!!

- Amazing turn by Jeter on that double play in the bottom of the 1st.  Throw was a little high, so it was pretty much all arm on the throw after he came down and touched the bag.  His range may not be much anymore, but the old man can still flash some leather.

- Andy didn't look particularly sharp through 2 innings to me.  His fastball was sitting up in the zone and he couldn't locate the cutter and slider exactly how he wanted.  Dave Eiland must have thought the same thing since they both went into the clubhouse to watch some tape after the 2nd.

- Nice play by Swish on that shallow pop up down the right field line in the bottom of the 3rd.  A Top-3 Web Gem for sure.  Although I bet it didn't do his knee any favors having to run that hard and slide on it.

- Joe Girardi and Mo shot a Taco Bell commercial for the new XXL Chalupa??  Why didn't I know about this?  Where was Chad Jennings on covering that story?  I have to say I enjoyed the ad the 2nd time through; very high on the unintentional comedy scale.

- The 4th inning showed the Yankees' true strategy at the plate as they jumped all over Pavano early in the count and started rocketing balls all over the field.  The first time through the lineup it was almost like they didn't have a clear cut strategy, like Joe told everybody "go up there and do whatever you want."  Some guys were swinging early and some guys were taking a strike or 2.  It was as if Joe let everybody do what they felt comfortable doing in trying to gauge Pavano's stuff and what his plan of attack was going to be.  2nd time through the lineup, however, it was swing away.  Pavano was throwing fastball down the middle for strike 1 to everybody and they took advantage.

- That being said, I thought the Yankees were a little TOO aggressive in the 4th.  Granderson hit the double, Teix singled on the first pitch, and A-Rod was swinging first pitch in the next at-bat.  Now he got the run in, but the pitch he hit was outside and would have been a borderline call by the ump.  After 2 consecutive guys mashed fastballs over the heart, Pavano was clearly changing his location with his first pitch and it would have been nice to see A-Rod take a pitch or 2, try to work into a hitter's count, and force Pavano to come back over the middle.  Same thing applies to Cano on his at-bat, even though he singled.

- That strategy of waiting out Pavano is exactly what Berkman did on his homer in the 5th.  Took 2 pitches for balls, worked the count in his favor, and took a hittable pitch and crushed it, going with it to left center.  You can't draw it up any better than that.

- Not to harp too much on the negative, since they did win, but that was a horrible job by Cano in the 6th.  The Yankees just executed a perfect hit-and-run, had runners on the corners, and Pavano teetering on the edge of disaster again.  He was clearly concerned about A-Rod taking 2nd, and Cano needs to be more patient there, take some pitches, and give A-Rod a chance to steal the bag.  Instead he reached on another borderline pitch on the outside and hit a lazy flyball to left, changing the whole complexion of the inning.

- Speed bump for Pettitte in the bottom of the 6th after he cruised through the previous 3 innings.  The slider to Hudson just hung up a little too high and gave him enough chance to put a good swing on it, bad pitch.  But the Delmon Young triple was on home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt, who squeezed Pettitte on 2 pitches on the corner, and then 2-0 he had no choice but to throw one for a strike.  Young knew it was coming and did what good hitters do.

- But what Hunter Wendelstedt taketh away, he also giveth.  It was a hell of a swing on a pretty good pitch, but let's be honest, the previous pitch to Berkman in the top of the 7th before his RBI double was strike 3, no doubt about it.  I don't blame Maddon for being pissed and getting run because that was blatant.  That one call set the Yankees up for the rest of the inning, and they took advantage.

- Danny Valencia certainly didn't help his pitcher out after the double in the 7th, making 2 bad plays at 3rd on bunts by Gardner and Granderson.  On Gardner's he wasn't in enough early to make a play on the ball and on Granderson's he was caught in no man's land and wasn't at 3rd to field a potential throw and force play from Jose Mijares.  Kudos to Ron Darling for calling him out on that too.  Good to know he can talk about more than just pitching.

- If you would have told me that A-Rod and Cano wouldn't have been able to drive in one run between the 2 of them with 2 at-bats with the bases loaded before the game started, I would have said you were crazy.  Hats off to Jon Rauch for sitting them down, but another shitty swing from Cano on his pop out.

- After the Yanks got him the lead back in the top of the inning, huge shutdown innings in the bottom half by Andy, going K, foul out, K on Cuddyer, Kubel, and Valencia.  That was the inning they needed and was a great way to end a great outing by Andy.

- Speaking of great, how nasty was Kerry Wood in the 8th??  He struck out J.J. Hardy on a fastball, slider, curve combo, got ahead of Span before retiring him on a weak grounder back to the pitcher on a 95-MPH heater, then K'd Hudson with 3 consecutive fastballs, each filthier than the one before it.  10 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 outs.  I was tweaking my nipples by the time the inning was over.

- After smacking Pavano around the park to get the lead, the Yanks turned to their version of small ball to get an insurance run in the 9th.  Gardner leads off with a single, moves to 2nd on Jeter's groundout, steals 3rd, and comes home on an RBI bloop single by Granderson, who had a patient at-bat that allowed Gardner to time up Matt Capps and steal the base.  When they can combine that with their power, the Yanks are tough to beat.

- Mo was Mo again in the 9th.  Good zip on the fastball/cutter and pinpoint location.  All memories of his September struggles can be forgotten now.

- It was a cat-and-mouse game between the Yankee lineup and Pavano all night.  They were cautiously aggressive first time through the lineup to gauge what he was going, then pounded him early in the count the 2nd time through once they realized he was throwing meatballs to get ahead in the count.  That forced Pavano to change his approach and try to pick corners instead of throwing fastball down the middle for strike one, so the Yankees adapted and went back to taking a pitch or 2, hence Posada's leadoff walk in the 7th and all the subsequent damage that followed on what were some of the longest Yankee at-bats of the night.  It was a brilliant strategy by New York and made life tough for Pavano.  Without swing-and-miss stuff you're going to be in trouble against this lineup.

- On the other side of the pitching matchup, it was like a trip down memory lane watching Andy work.  Whatever he and Eiland watched and discussed after the 2nd inning certainly helped because he was much sharper after that.  He got his fastball down in the zone, started working the cutter and slider to both sides of the plate, using the slider as his out pitch on a couple big strikeouts, and pitched his best inning in the shutdown bottom of the 7th after the Yankee offense regained the lead for him.  Anybody still have questions about the Yankee rotation depth now??

- Last note and it is worth mentioning.  Hunter Wendelstedt was awful behind the plate last night.  He wasn't calling anything on the inside corner and there were probably 10-12 pitches between both teams that were obvious strikes, and his outside corner seemed to stretch somewhere near the on-deck circle to both righties and lefties.  He was consistent, I'll give him that, but consistently bad isn't necessarily a good thing.  There were a handful of times where his shitty strike zone drastically changed how pitchers pitched and that's not something you want to see.

Play of The Game: Berkman's RBI Double in the 7th

It came right after the Twins tied it up in the bottom of the 6th, giving the Yankees the lead back and setting them up for a big inning.  It also took the re-awakened crowd right back out of the game.  Just a crushing blow to the Twins, especially when you consider the circumstances preceding that hit.

Player of The Game: Andy Pettitte

As much as I'd like to give it to Berkman or Granderson (who was awesome), Pettitte's outing was too good to ignore.  7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 4 K on just 88 pitches.  He threw first-pitch strikes to 15 of the 26 batters he faced, and that ratio was probably better from the 3rd inning on.  He answered all the questions people had about him and the Yankee rotation moving forward.

Co-Honorable Mentions: Lance Berkman (2-4, 2B, HR, 2 runs scored, 2 RBIs.  Almost identical to Teix's Game 1 line) and Curtis Granderson (3-4, 2B, 1 run, 1 RBI, 1 sac, and a solid job in center)

ALDS Game 2 Preview: Same Old Story

Pitching Matchup: Pettitte (11-3) vs. Pavano (17-11)

Starting Lineups:

NY: Jeter- SS, Granderson- CF, Teix- 1B, A-Rod- 3B, Cano- 2B, Swish- RF, Posada- C, Berkman- DH, Gardner- RF 

Min: Span- CF, Hudson- 2B, Mauer- C, Young- LF, Thome- DH, Cuddyer- 1B, Kubel- RF, Valencia- 3B, Hardy- SS

3 Things To Watch For:

1) Andy's Command

Andy was having the great season he was before his injury because of impeccable command.  He was throwing any pitch to any location at any count and hitters didn't have much for him.  Since coming back from the injury, however, Pettitte's command has been his issue as in just 7.1 innings he has given up 19 hits and 9 earned runs.  The control has been there, evidenced by just 2 walks to 9 Ks, but control and command are 2 different things.  Control is the ability to throw a pitch in the strike zone; command is the ability to throw the pitch where you want it to go in the strike zone.  Andy's last start was a sign that the command was starting to come back to him, as he didn't walk a batter and struck out 8 in 4 innings.  If he can make the mechanical adjustments he's been talking about and get back to where he was earlier in the year, it could be a long night for the Twins.  If he struggles and still can't find the command he needs to be successful, it could be a long one for the Yankes.

2) Joe's Hook

This goes hand-in-hand with Andy's command tonight, as it will be interesting to see how much lead Joe gives Andy if he struggles.  We saw Dusty Baker remove his starter before the end of the 2nd inning yesterday when it was clear he didn't have it, so how long will Joe leave Andy out to battle and eat up innings if he's off his game?  I would imagine Joe will let Andy try to work out of any serious trouble he gets into because that's his style.  But if it gets ugly, just how ugly will depend on how quick Joe decides to take him out.

This point also has importance even if Andy is on his game.  Because his last 2 outings were short, he still isn't all the way stretched out, only throwing 75 and 88 pitches in those 2 starts.  If Andy is cruising, does Joe leave him out there for 90 pitches?  100?  What's the cap on his pitch count, if there even is one?

(**Bonus Thing to Watch For: If Andy is out early, who does Joe turn to in the 'pen out of the trio of long relievers (A.J., Mitre, Moseley)?  My money would be on Mitre.**)

3) Yanks' Approach vs. Pavano

Definitely worth watching because of Pavano's status as one of the most successful guys in baseball at pitching to contact and because of his past success against the Yankees since leaving (2.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 17 Ks in 20.1 IP over 3 outings).

Pavano can certainly be touched up, evidenced by his 227 hits allowed in 221 IP to the tune of a .266 BBA.  But the other 2 numbers in that tripleslash against, the .300 OBP and .417 SLG, show where Pavano's success lies in not walking batters and limiting damage on the hits he gives up.  His line against rises to .292/.325/.453 against lefties this year in 411 ABs so expect to see Lance Berkman and his 3-9 w/ 3 XBH in the lineup tonight, but what will that lineup do?  Liriano tried to pitch against the Yankees' patience by throwing fastballs early to get ahead in the count, but Pavano doesn't have the zip on his heater than Liriano does.  The best pitches the Yankees are going to get are going to be early in the count, so do they jump on Pavano early and take their hacks?  Or take a strike or 2 and wait for him to make a mistake later in the count?  Whatever the approach ends up being, keep an eye on the Twins' outfield defense behind Pavano, where Kubel and Young on the corners are just short of being disasters

Player to Watch: Andy Pettitte

It's all about Andy tonight.  Despite the numbers he looked much better in his last start against Boston than in his first one back, and he's already beaten the Twins twice this year when they had Morneau in the lineup.  It should be pretty easy to tell how Andy's feeling and how good his command is early by what he's throwing.  If he's mixing pitches well and working both sides of the plate, chances are he's got it.  If he's missing spots, falling behind in counts, and reverting to the fastball and the cutter a lot, then most likely he still doesn't have the feel for his stuff.

Take note of the Twins' approach against him at the plate tonight.  My guess is they will be patient, test the waters to see what he has early, then attack the 2nd time through the lineup.  I also wouldn't be surprised if we see Span or Hudson try to lay down a bunt or 2 to test that groin and get Andy moving off the mound.  Because of the win last night the Yankees don't need Pettitte to be lights out tonight, just good enough.  5-6 innings of 2-3-run ball will suffice.  Anything better than that and we're probably looking at a 2-0 Yankee lead coming back to New York.


The more things change, the more they stay the same.  Once again it's the ALDS and the Yankees are up on the Twins after coming back from an early deficit and crushing the hopes and dreams of their fans in the late innings.  It's not quite the clinching game, but just like last year the Yanks have Andy Pettitte on the mound with a chance to shut down the Twins again and all but lock up the series.  It really is the same old song and dance...

Look At Those Pants!!

(Photo courtesy of my shitty cell phone camera)

I mean really!!  LOOK at those pants!!  To call them parachute pants would almost be an underestimate.  Maybe the extra drag created by those what was caused CC to mess up his mechanics in the 6th inning.

Game 1 Thoughts And Afterthoughts

(Photo Courtesy of The AP)

- Nice play by Brett Gardner in the 1stinning to get to the ball in left and hold Denard Span to a single.  That could have changed the complexion of the innings if Span makes it to 2nd with no outs.  THAT'S what Gardner was in the lineup last night against a lefty instead of Kearns.

- Even better play by Cano to end the inning in the 1st, fielding the ball behind the second base bag on the shortstop side and whipping a sidearm through against his body while moving to his right without breaking stride.  I didn't hear John Sterling's call on the radio but I'm sure it didn't do the play justice.

- On the Cuddyer home run in the 2nd, I think the Thome HBP rattled CC.  His first 2 pitches to Cuddyer after the HBP weren't even close and then behind 2-0 he had to throw one right down the middle.  Cuddyer knew it was coming and crushed it.  After that CC was able to reset and bear down, but the HBP definitely shook him.

- Jeter looked slow on the fastball in his first two at-bats last night.  He swung through one for a strikeout in the 1st and was way late in fouling the first 2 pitches off in the 3rd.  After getting down 0-2 in that at-bat, though, it was vintage Jeter as he battled back to a full count and then singled to left on a poorly-placed change.

- Liriano showed the rest of his staff the way to handle A-Rod in the 3rd, fanning him on 3 straight sliders that A-Rod looked awful on.  I wouldn't expect to see too many more fastballs for the rest of the series if I'm The Horse.

- Although he looked solid through 3 innings, Liriano was up around 60 pitches already.  I said in the preview that if the Yankees could work his pitch count they could get him out early and get to the 'pen and despite being down they were setting that up perfectly through patience on the slider and fouling off pitches.

- Just an awful passed ball by Jorge in the 3rd.  I've said it before and I'll say it again: there's no way you can convince me that Jesus Montero is going to be as bad or worse defensively than Jorge.

- Jorge's fuckups aside, CC was not sharp at all through 3 innings.  He actually seemed to get worse from the 1st to the 2nd to the 3rd.  His command was inconsistent, he was getting behind too many batters by not throwing strike 1, and when he did get ahead in the count his putaway pitches were terrible: either nowhere near the strike zone or catching too much of the plate and being put in play or wasted.

- Liriano cruised through the 4th and 5th once he really got his slider going.  He didn't have great command of it in the early innings, but found it in the 4th and 5th and with the faster pace at which he was working, it was obvious he was feeling it.

- The Teix 2B in the 6th was a huge hit for the Yanks because it not only gave them their first scoring opportunity in 3 innings, but it also broke Liriano's momentum and forced him back into the stretch.  Once he got back into that, his command seemed to abandon him.  Once he had to work hard to get out of the inning, the pitch count came back to bite him and the wheels fell off.

- Big hit by C-Grand in a great at-bat in the 6th.  He showed patience against a tiring pitcher, took 2 balls, and sat on the fastball that he absolutely crushed into right field.  No way he does that a couple months ago.  Thank you, Kevin Long!

- I hate to show no faith in CC, and I'm sure plenty of people will disagree with this statement, but that's a terrible job by Joe in the bottom of the 6th not taking CC out after the Kubel walk.  CC started to open his shoulder up and miss with the slider against Thome when he walked him, it got worse against Cuddyer before he grooved another one for a double, and he threw 4 pitches to Kubel that weren't even close.  He was done at that point.  He was clearly tired and that's why his mechanics failed him.  Rookie right-handed hitter or not, CC should have been out of the game to start resting up for Game 4.

I understand he's the ace and that's what you pay him for, but the playoffs aren't about loyalty or reputation or stature, they're about winning.  And getting a clearly tired pitcher out of a one-run game for a fresh reliever with a fastball-curveball combo that could have surely struck out Valencia was the winning move in that situation.  CC was clearly out there with nothing against Kubel and Valencia and they only reason he managed to get J.J. Hardy out was because he went back to the fastball and because it was J.J. Hardy at the plate.

- Excellent at-bat by Teix in the 7th.  He took what Crain gave him, worked some tough fastballs, waited for something off-speed, and made Crain pay for missing way up with a slider.

- The Yankee bullpen was effective, if not a little nerve wracking.  Logan did a good job getting the first 2 outs and then fell victim to Joe Mauer being a great hitter, something that there is no shame in.  D-Rob was a complete pussy against Delmon Young, the guy he was brought in to face, not even looking like he wanted to pitch to him, then promptly attacked Thome with some of his filthiest curveballs and getting him to strike out.  Wood was solid, but experienced some bad luck on the Valencia infield single.  I actually thought Joe should have left him in the finish the 8th.

- But alas, Joe went to Mo for a 4-out save and it was the right call to make.  After getting behind Denard Span 3-0, Mo battled back to saw him off and then looked like vintage Mo in the 9th, throwing strike one, pounding the zone with the cutter, and getting a 1-2-3-4 innings thanks to some shitty umpiring, breaking multiple bats in the process.

- Francisco Liriano was on early and often, pumping his fastball in for strikes early in the count to set up the slider, which he found in the middle innings.  But while it looked like all was well on the surface, the classic Yankee patience worked against him as he reached the dangerous-for-him 100-pitch plateau in the 6th inning.  That inning was all it took to turn a dominant outing into a shaky one, and that's what the Yankees can do to you.

- CC was actually worse than Liriano.  His slider command was nowhere to be found and his fastball wasn't much better.  He had trouble throwing strike one (only 13 of 27 batters faced), and got into trouble by falling behind hitters and then grooving fastballs just for the sake of throwing a strike in obvious fastball counts.  Some credit goes to Minnesota for working him, but CC was definitely not as sharp as we're used to seeing him.  He'll be working with Eiland before his next start on fixing the mechanical shoulder issue that was his undoing in the 6th.

- It was an up-and-down night for Jeter at the plate.  He didn't look great on Liriano's early fastballs, and swung and missed at least once at every type of pitch thrown to him by the Minnesota staff.  He showed more patience early in the game and then was first-pitch swinging in the 9th.  After getting him to flail on some curveballs in the 7th, keep an eye on how the Twins choose to attack him in Game 2 and beyond.

- Not too much to complain about with EJ, Smoltz, and Ron Darling last night.  They did go back and forth a little too much between talking in weird generalities when the situation didn't call for it (i.e.- Darling talking about CC's toughness right after he gave up a home run) and analyzing the action on the field, but overall they were OK.  They didn't talk over the action too much, EJ didn't over-dramatize anything, and Darling and Smoltz actually provided some good insight and analysis that you know you wouldn't get from Tim McCarver.  At the very least, they're watchable.

- Indian Summers?  Artificial dirt in the infield?  CC and Orlando Hudson's wives hanging out?  Can somebody tell me what the fuck Craig Sager was talking about last night?  This ain't "Good Morning America," chief.  It's the fucking playoffs.  Save the puff pieces and human interest stories for another time and get us viewers some info that actually matters or take your ugly suits and go the fuck home.

- Big fan of the TBS pitch track system and the fact that it actually reverts to a different camera that is squared up to homeplate and shows where pitches truly were when they crossed the plate.  Take note, ESPN, since your K-Zone is almost always off.

- Play of The Game- Teix's 2-run HR in the 7th

Granderson's HR had a bit higher WPA value, but the lead he gave the Yankees' was promptly coughed up by CC.  Teix came up right after that and regained the lead for his team, sucking the life and energy back out of the stadium that had just been created by the Twins' comeback.  Getting the Yanks the lead with their bullpen coming in to lock it down was a huge turning point and turned out to be the game-winning hit.

- Player of The Game- Mark Teixeira

2-5 with a 2B, HR, 2 runs scored, 2 RBIs, and a couple of solid plays at first base.  Yep, that's what Cash signed him for.  As bad as he was in the 2009 postseason, this was a great start to get off to for Teix.

ALDS Game 1 Preview: Aces High

Pitching Matchup: Sabathia (21-7) vs. Liriano (14-10)

Starting Lineups:

NY: Jeter- SS, Swish- RF, Teix- 1B, A-Rod- 3B, Cano- 2B, Thames- DH, Posada- C, G-Grand- CF, Gardner- RF 

Min: Denard Span- CF, Orlando Hudson- 2B, Joe Mauer- C, Delmon Young- LF, Jim Thome- DH, Michael Cuddyer- 1B, Jason Kubel- RF, Danny Valencia- 3B, J.J. Hardy- SS

3 Things to Watch For:

1) Liriano's Pitch Count

Liriano is the best pitcher on the Twins staff, no doubt about it.  But he's not the workhorse CC is.  He averaged fewer than 100 pitches per start, and down the stretch he threw 100 or more  pitches in only 2 of his final 6 starts and 80 or fewer pitches in 2 of them as well.  Per this fantastically-done scouting report by Stephen R. at TYU, Liriano is also very methodical when it comes to his pitch selection and what he throws based on what the count is.  If the Yankees are patient and can lay off early sliders out of the zone, they can not only get themselves into favorable hitters' counts where they can look for fastballs, but they can also drive up Liriano's pitch count.  Having not thrown into the 110-120 range since his last outing against the Yankees in May, Ron Gardenhire would be more likely to go to his 'pen if Liriano gets up around 90-100 pitches in the 5th or 6th inning rather than risk letting a tiring pitcher get shelled. 

2) Twins' Aggressiveness on the Basepaths

The Red Sox brought what was already a glaring defensive weakness of the Yankees even more to the forefront with their 4-stolen base extravaganza off of Mo and Jorge Posada.  It will be interesting to see how the Twins try to attack Posada if they get their speed guys on.  With extra days off to rest him and no A.J. in the rotation, there is no need for Cervelli to be starting behind the plate, especially since he isn't much better at throwing baserunners out than Jorge, but if the Twins are aggressive and turn the basepaths into a merry-go-round, it could force Joe to change his strategy and his lineup moving forward. 

3) The Bullpen Matchup Game

In a perfect world we would get to see 8 innings of CC and 1 inning of Mo tonight and we could all go to bed happy.  But with the plan to bring CC back for Game 4 on short rest, I can't imagine Joe letting him out there for 120 pitches tonight, so chances are it will come down to a battle of the bullpens in the late innings.  Joe and Ron Gardenhire love to mix and match and play the situations, and Joe was certainly the winner of that chess match in last year's division series, so who can push the right buttons and make the right calls this year?  Who the 2 skippers go to tonight, when they choose to use a particular pitcher, and who they choose to use him against will be a big predictor of what the pecking order is in both 'pens and what we can expect to see in the later innings for the rest of the series.

Player to Watch: Derek Jeter

It's been tough watching Jeter's decline this season, even more so when you consider just how long he has been so great and how spoiled we've all been watching that greatness.  But facts are facts, and Jeter has finally started to decline and play like the 37-year-old he is.

That being said, Jeter did experience a bit of a renaissance at the end of the regular season after swallowing his pride and working with Kevin Long.  Over his final 20 games he hit .342 (27 for 79) with 15 runs scored, 7 RBIs, and 12 BB.  He was more patient at the plate and his swing was much more balanced, not the reaching hacks that led to the countless groundouts to short we've seen this year.

What Jeter does at the plate tonight could shine some light on the Yankees' gameplan against Liriano.  Will he be patient and wait for a fastball in a hitter's count or will he jump on those first few sliders if they're close?  If Jeter can take some pitches and show the rest of the lineup how Liriano is going to work, it will go a long way in setting the Yankees up for success the 2nd and 3rd time in the lineup.  And if he can get on base, he could help the guys behind him get a few more pitches to hit as the Twins might not want to risk leaning on Liriano's slider for risk of it being thrown for a wild pitch.


It's the two aces on the hill tonight to kick things off as it should be.  In keeping up with a great tradition started by the boys at the currently dormant Fack Youk, AB4AR will have a little musical accompaniment for tonight's matchup and every game from here on out this postseason.  With the previously mentioned aces involved tonight, you know it has to be Motorhead.

ALDS Preview: The Prediction

We've broken down both teams rosters, we've pointed out the major keys to the series, now all that's left is to put some money down and make a prediction.

I know everyone's down on the Yankees this year.  I know everybody in the mainstream media thinks their pitching is nothing but CC and that Mo is done and this is the year that the Twins finally get over the hump.  I know everybody thinks Jeter is washed up and Jorge is too old and Teix is too hurt and Cano has never gotten it done in the postseason.  I know all that and I still just don't see Minnesota beating the Yanks in this series, even with the homefield advantage.

The Yankee lineup is far deeper and more dangerous that Minnesota's and much better equipped to handle left-handed pitching.  The Yankee rotation, despite being short, still has the potential to be more of a shutdown rotation than Minnesota's due to their combined stuff, experience, and their ability to miss bats.  And even though the bullpens both look stacked on paper, Minnesota might be without Jon Rauch because of his knee injury, and their relievers, like their starters, pitch to a lot of contact, something that gets teams in trouble against the Yankee lineup.

Anyway you try to cut it, the Yankees are just a little bit better than the Twins in every category and that's what will propel them past the Twins once again.  I see a split in the first 2 games in Minnesota and then the Yanks wrapping it up at home with 2 straight wins.

Prediction:  Yankees in 4.

** Check back later this afternoon for AB4AR's new Game-by-Game Playoff Preview Format **

Thoughts On The Yankee ALDS Roster

I almost had it nailed, but 24 out of 25 ain't bad.  Here's who Joe decided to take:

Lineup: Jeter, Swish, Teix, The Horse, Cano, Jorge, Berkman, C-Grand, Gardner
Rotation: CC, Andy, Hughes
Bullpen: Mo, Wood, D-Rob, Boone Logan, Joba, A.J., Mitre, Moseley
Bench: Cervelli, Thames, Kearns, Pena, Golson

I can't really argue or say I'm surprised with any of that.  We all know that Eduardo Nunez is a better stick and baserunner than Pena, but there was no way he was getting on based on seniority.  And I thought Nova was the better option as the other bullpen guy because of his success the first time through a lineup and the fact that Minnesota hadn't seen him, but Moseley having a bit more experience and a few instances of a job well done in long relief probably swung more in his favor and overrode the fact that he doesn't miss bats.

In any case, the lineup is set.  Thames and Berkman should see the same amount of plate appearances with Minnesota's alternating of righties and lefties.  Golson gives Joe the late-game speed option he loves, but if Swish's knee is good to go then I wouldn't use him to run for anybody except Jorge or whoever is DH'ing.  And it will be interesting to see where A.J. fits in the hierarchy of long relief with Mitre and Moseley also on board, that is if Joe decides to use him at all.

ALDS Preview: 3 Things That Will Decide The Series

Just like last year, it's the Yankees and the Twins in the American League Division Series.  This year the roles have been reversed as the Twins have the homefield advantage and the Yankees come in as the Wild Card but still the odds-on favorite.  The Yankees were 4-2 against the Twins in the regular season, taking 2 out of 3 at The Stadium and 2 out of 3 at Target Field behind 4 good pitching performances in the wins and 2 shitty ones in the losses.  Almost all of the same faces from those series will be present here, along with some new ones (Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes for the Twins.  Kearns, Berkman, and Kerry Wood for the Yanks).  Here are the 3 keys to winning the series, and no, none of them have anything to do with intangibles or the scrappiness of Nick Punto.

1) Hitting Left-Handed Pitching

The book on the Twins is that they struggle against lefties because of their lefty-heavy lineup.  The only significant right-handed bat in their lineup is Delmon Young, with maybe Michael Cuddyer getting half a vote.  Because of that, the Yankees are going to load up on their lefties and give CC and Andy 4 of the 5 starts in the series and try to neutralize the Joe Mauers, Jim Thomes, and Jason Kubels of the world, something Andy has already done twice this year.

The Yankees are also traditionally known as a team that struggles against lefties, although they succeeded in disproving that theory for most of the regular season.  The Yankees are better equipped to face lefty pitching as they possess more switch hitters than the Twins and the option of subbing Marcus Thames in for Lance Berkman, and that will come in handy as the Twins also plan to use 2 lefties in their rotation, albeit 2 lefties against whom the Yankees have had success, Liriano and Duensing.

In looking at each team's performance against LHP this year, the stats break down like this:

- Yankees: .268/.357/.433 in 1811 ABs w/ 168 XBH, 252 RBIs, and 229 BB
- Twins:     .268/.336/.400 in 1865 ABs w/ 156 XBH, 223 RBIs, and 191 BB

The numbers show both teams hitting lefties at about the same clip, with the Yankees doing more with their hits and drawing more walks, a testament to both the danger their lineup presents and their traditional patience at the plate.  Also worth noting is the fact that Minnesota's left-handed batters all have OPS numbers against LHP below their seasonal OPS values (for example, Thomes: 1.039 on the season, .769 vs. lefties).  The Yankees, however, have 5 regulars who posted OPS' above .833 for the year against lefties, including Robinson Cano.  Only Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner have low values against lefties, and Gardner's OPS of .725 is still higher than that of Joe Mauer (.711).

With both teams employing 2 lefties in their rotations and featuring solid specialists out of the bullpen (Boone Logan for the Yanks, and the reborn Brian Fuentes for Minnesota), how they choose to build their lineups against those pitchers and how those lineups perform will be a big factor in determining victory.  The Yankees' ability to match up well with lefties due to their lineup flexibility and the Twins' lack of significant bench options (as discussed yesterday) should give New York the advantage here.

2) Production From The Leadoff Spot

Something that may not stand out as being overly important in the regular season can make all the difference in a postseason series where every run matters, especially in close games.  Getting the leadoff runner on changes the whole complexion of an inning.  It gives the team batting a multitude of options to try to move the runner over and set themselves up for a big inning and it changes the pitcher's entire approach against the next hitter.  It also can take the pitcher's focus off the batter a bit and lead to poor pitches, which the Yankee lineup is more than equipped to make opposing hurlers pay for.

Once again for the sake of comparison, here is how the Yankees and Twins stacked up from the leadoff spot:

- Yankees: .284/.358/.385 in 697 ABs
- Twins:     .260/.328/.352 in 677 ABs

The numbers show the Yankees having a clear advantage in this department, which may come as a bit of a surprise considering how much discussion there was about Jeter needing to be removed from the leadoff role because of his down year.  But Jeter has come around over the last few weeks of the regular season after sitting down with the God of Hitting, Kevin Long.  He hasn't been reaching at pitches as much and is seeing more pitches in his at-bats, something you want a leadoff hitter to do.  With another guy who sees a lot of pitches hitting behind him in Nick Swisher, the Yankees are set up well to take advantage should Jeter get on base.

For all the talk about how bad Jeter was this year, his leadoff counterpart, Denard Span, had numbers below Jeter's across the board.  Span's BA, OBP, SLG, hits, walks, and runs scored are all below Jeter's totals in just 34 fewer at-bats.  Without Justin Morneau in the lineup, the Twins are going to have to get runs however they can, and it all starts with Span getting on base.  His speed makes him a danger to steal bases or to hit-and-run.  The more he can work his way on, especially against the Yankee starters, the better of Minnesota is going to be.  Keeping Span off the bases should be a high priority for the Yankees, if for no other reason than to limit the chances he has to run on the noodle-armed combo of Posada and Cervelli.

3) Hitting With Runners In Scoring Position

Always one of the most important facets of the game and one that will almost always show a direct correlation between succeeding at this and winning ball games.  As with all other situational statistics, this one becomes even more valuable in the playoffs.  Here's how the Yanks and Twins compare:

- Yankees: .258/.363/.420 in 1499 ABs w/ 626 runs scored and 244 BB
- Twins:     .285/.363/.417 in 1451 ABs w/ 601 runs scored and 196 BB

The Twins have hit much better in this situation this year than the Yankees, but have less to show for it.  The Yankees have generated 25 more runs in just 48 more at-bats despite hitting almost 30 points lower than Minnesota.  It's not too hard to figure out that this is due to the Yankees' team power, but the walks also shed some light on why the Yanks have score more runs with RISP.  The fact that they have taken 48 more walks than the Twins shows the benefits of the Yankees' patience.  Even if they don't drive in a run with the walk, they are still creating another situation for the next batter with RISP.  If pitchers try to get cute and pitch around the A-Rods and Mark Teixeiras of the world, the Yankees have shown the ability this season to remain patient, not chase pitches, and pass the baton on to the next guy in line to come through in the clutch.  In a sense the Yankees force the opposing pitcher to throw strikes and then they make the most of the pitches they get to hit.

You can bet that Joe and Ron Gardenhire have already checked the stat books on which guys thrive in the RISP situation and which guys falter.  Here are the best and worst 2 out of the guys we know are going to play for both teams:

- Yanks' 2 Best: Teixeira (.963 OPS) & Cano (.921 OPS) w/ a combined 37 XBH and 150 RBIs
- Yanks' 2 Worst: Posada (.703 OPS) & Gardner (.673 OPS)

- Twins' 2 Best: Mauer (.923 OPS) & Young (.911 OPS)
- Twins' 2 Worst: J.J. Hardy (.664 OPS) & Hudson (.524 OPS)

In addition to their top guys, the Yankees also have 3 guys with OPS w/ RISP above .839 (Berkman, A-Rod, and Swish) and 2 guys with OPS at .788 (C-Grand and Jeter).  The Twins have nobody else with an OPS value above .800 after Mauer and Young.  Surprisingly enough, for all the damage he's done in limited at-bats this season, Marcus Thames is only hitting .214/.266/.393 with RISP this year.

An interesting sidebar to the RISP topic is the combination of double plays grounded into and runners left on base, 2 categories that each team was high in this season.  The Twins actually led the American League this year with 158 GIDP.  The Yankees had 124, although it seemed like 100-110 of those came in the last 6 weeks of the season.  On the other side, the Yankees were 2nd in the AL with 1228 runners LOB this year to the Twins' 1156.  The high LOB count points back to the Yanks' low BA with RISP so it will be interesting to see how each of those stats plays out over the series as neither is a sign of success with RISP and a double play is the ultimate rally killer.

Success with RISP can be tied back to the last topic of leadoff hitter success.  The more the leadoff hitter gets on, the more opportunities you have to create RISP situations, and with the Yankees' heart of the order, they are poised to capitalize in these situations, especially against a starting pitching staff that pitches to contact.  The Yankees got the bigger hits in clutch situations last year (see: A-Rod homer off of Nathan; Teix homer off of Mijares), but they have struggled down the stretch to generate runs, especially with men on base.

With 2 teams this closely matched, the series may come down to just one or two situations where a team needs a hit with RISP.  Whichever team can get those hits will win this series.

Heartwarming Yanks-Sox Story To Get Your Tuesday Off To A Good Start

"Police arrested a Yankees fan Saturday after he allegedly stabbed a Red Sox fan in the neck over an argument about their baseball teams’ rivalry at a restaurant in Branford, Conn., police said.

Monte Freire, 43, of Nashua remains in critical condition after John Mayor, 45, of New Haven allegedly stabbed him with a knife at the Chowder Pot Restaurant around 10:45 p.m., according to a news release from the Branford Police Department.

“Unfortunately, witnesses were telling us the disturbances emanated from a dispute over certainly that: the Yankees and Red Sox,’’ Captain Geoffrey Morgan said in a phone interview.

Mayor is facing several charges, including assault in the first degree. In addition, he is being held on a $500,000 bond. His arraignment is set for today, pending his release from the hospital." (story via Boston.com)

Nice!!!  High five for you, John Mayor!  I'm sure that asshole deserved it because, let's face it, there really is no argument about who the better team is when it comes to the Yankees and the Red Sox.  So obviously Mayor won that argument and then punctuated his victory with a good old neck stabbing.  That's just great hustle right there.

A diehard fan like that should be rewarded.  Somebody get Hank and Hal on the phone to bail this dude out and hook him up with some field-level seats for Game 3.

It's stories like this that make me proud to be a Yankee fan.

The Horse Wins AL Player Of The Month For September

I guess that's what a .309/.385/.667 tripleslash with 9 homers and a league high 26 RBIs while also playing flawless defense at the hot corner gets you these days.

I'd like to say I'm surprised at this after how much time A-Rod missed with his injury, but then I remembered that this is his time of year.  When the money is on the table, The Horse can get it done like nobody's business and he was just warming himself up to run roughshod over every pitcher this postseason like he did last year.  So it all makes sense really, and I really don't need to get excited about him winning Player of The Month or anything like that.

I'm saving my excitement for the World Series MVP Award that someone's going to be handing him in about a month.

ALDS Breakdown In A Nutshell: Benches & Bullpens

Yankee Bench:

Plenty of solid options for the Yankees off the bench, both as situational or late-game substitutions or guys who can step into the starting lineup and produce.  Cervelli has caught the majority of the innings this year thanks to Posada's injuries.  He's never going to hit a lot or hit for power, but he works the count, puts the ball in play, and hits well in the clutch.  He's also been swinging a hotter bat of late after a dreadful summer.  Marcus Thames is the righty DH option who should see plenty of ABs against Liriano and Duensing.  With the way he mashed this season, the argument can be made that he was Cash's best off-season move.  Austin Kearns has some power and can play an adequate outfield, but he shouldn't get too much run in the playoffs unless one of the regulars gets hurt.  The utility infield spot is "6 one, half dozen the other" with Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez, and I still think Pena gets the nod because of he's defense and experience.  Greg Golson will be the late-game baserunning threat for Joe in close games and could spell Swish in RF if the knee is still bothering him.

Twins Bench:

Not a lot to speak about here on paper, with the Nick Puntos, Drew Buteras, and Jason Repkos of the world likely making the roster.  Basically the Twins bench is a collection of guys who can fill in for 100-200 ABs a year as needed, but there's a reason they are on the bench.  J.J. Hardy and Alexi Casilla are basically interchangeable on the left side of the infield.  Matt Tolbert could be used as the Twins' version of a late-game pace changer on the basepaths, but overall the Twins bench is not nearly as deep or dangerous as that of the Yankees, especially considering one of those roster spots would have belonged to Justin Morneau.  Most of these guys can speak more about their defensive value than prowess at the plate, but in the playoffs even a guy like Jason Repko can become a hero. 

Yankee Bullpen:

Stacked to the brim with quality setup guys: Kerry Wood, D-Rob, Boone Logan, and Joba, all of whom Joe has mixed and matched with over the last 4-6 weeks to build the bridge to Mo.  Wood has emerged as the primary 8th-inning option and my bet is Joe uses him for that role because of his experience.  D-Rob will probably be the first candidate to be the fireman in the 5th, 6th, or 7th inning should a starter get in trouble, and Logan will be used almost exclusively as the lefty specialist.  Mo has had his problems lately, but after working with Dave Eiland he seems to have his issues figured out, which is good timing for the Yanks.  The smart money would be on Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova being brought on as the long men, but don't rule out Chad Gaudin, who Joe used a lot down the stretch.

Twins Bullpen:

Like the Yankees, the Twins are stacked with quality setup men: Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Brian Fuentes.  Unlike the Yankees, however, the Twins' 'pen was a major contributor to their downfall last year in the ALDS.  Joe Nathan won't be here to choke away any saves this time around, and Matt Capps has been solid since the Twins acquired him at the deadline, but he's never had to face the heart of the Yankee order in the bottom of the 9th in front of a packed house full of crazed Yankee fans at The Stadium before.  Joe Nathan buckled under that pressure last year, who knows if Capps has the hair on his peaches to not repeat that meltdown.  Hopefully the Twins are gracious enough to include lefty Jose Mijares again this year.  Knowing he's in the bullpen in extra innings if the Yanks need to score a run is a good feeling.

ALDS Breakdown In A Nutshell: The Rotations

Yankees:

Right now we know that CC is getting the ball in Game 1 on Wednesday, but not much after that.  Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes will definitely get the next 2 starts, with Joe more likely to use Andy in Game 2 and Phil in Game 3 to set up Andy and his big game experience for a Game 5 start on the road if necessary.  The big question mark is A.J. Burnett, who looms over this 3-man rotation like a pigeon over a just-washed car.  He has done nothing to earn a start in this series, and given the scheduled off-days he should not get one, but Joe has yet to come out and say one way or another what A.J.'s role is going to be.  In all likelihood the Yankees will go with the 3-man rotation, the setup that gives them the best chance to win, and go CC, Andy, Phil, CC (short rest), Andy (regular rest) if the series goes 5 games.  Andy has already beaten the Twins twice this season, putting up 14.1 innings of 10-hit, 3-walk, 2-run, 6-K ball.  While neither Hughes nor CC faced Minnesota this season, CC has a track record of success against them throughout his career to go with his track record of success in big games as a Yankee, and Phil's limited exposure against the Twins could work to his advantage in his start, as he saw success early in the year against teams who had not seen him.

Twins:

Minnesota has already announced that they will use a 4-man rotation of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and Nick Blackburn, giving them a lefty-righty-lefty-righty split and setting them up for Liriano getting the Game 5 start if necessary.  Liriano has traditionally been a Yankee whipping boy, and did give up 17 hits in just 13 IP in his 2 starts against them this season, but he also only allowed 5 runs in those 2 starts and had an impressive 7/1 K/BB ratio.  Pavano was arguably the ace of the Twins' staff this year, with 7 complete games, and the decision to start him in Game 2 is smart by Ron Gardenhire as it will help him avoid the unrelenting verbal abuse (and possibly a D-battery or 2) that would have been hurled Pavano's way at The Stadium.  Duensing has seen the Yankees 3 times this year, giving up 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, and 2 Ks over 4 combined innings out of the bullpen.  He has been solid since entering the rotation, but his last few starts were not as strong.  Blackburn, while his numbers don't suggest he should have a start over Scott Baker, has beaten the Yankees twice this season, going 7+ innings in each start and never allowing more than 3 ER in either outing.  This matchup play is a roll of the dice by Gardenhire, but one that could work out for him if the series makes it to Game 4.  At the very least, the Twins won't have to worry about anybody's fatigue factor thanks to the extra man.

ALDS Breakdown In A Nutshell: The Lineups

Yankees:

Simple put, the Yankees have the deepest and best lineup in baseball.  Their balance of righties, lefties, and switch hitters makes them very difficult to match up with.  They have 3 guys with 100+ runs scored (Teix, Jeter, Cano), 3 guys with 100+ RBIs (A-Rod, Cano, Teix), they were just 2 HR short of having 4 guys with 30+ (Teix, A-Rod, Cano, Swish), and their starting lineup for the series will feature nobody with an OPS below .700 and 5 regulars with an OPS above .800.  On top of that is the fact that the lineup is finally back to full strength after having people spend significant portions of time in August on the DL.  Now Fat Elvis, Jorge, and The Horse are healthy, and the Yanks' lineup will have one of their hottest hitters (C-Grand) in the 8-spot.  Jeter seems to have gotten his shit together at the top of the lineup as well and Brett Gardner is leadoff hitter hitting in the 9-hole, so in theory the Yanks are coming in loaded with a lineup that has no holes.

Twins:

With Justin Morneau, this is also one of the deepest lineups in baseball.  Luckily, he and his 1.017 OPS versus the Yankees won't be in the lineup, but even without him the Twins are nothing to sneeze at.  Denard Span and Orlando Hudson are scrappy professional hitters at the top who can cause havoc on the bases with their speed.  Joe Mauer is one of the best hitters in the game, Delmon Young finally stepped up to the next level this year with 112 RBIs in Morneau's absence, and Jim Thome can still mash the fuck out of any bad pitch you make.  The bottom of the Twins lineup isn't as dangerous on paper as that of the Bombers, but Jason Kubel and rookie Danny Valencia can still make you pay.  The Twins don't get on base as much as the Yankees but were still 2nd in the AL in team OBP (.342).  With an abundance of lefties in the lineup, the Twins can be succeptible to left-handed pitching, something the Yankees have plenty of, but anyway you look at it, this is one of the 5 best offensive teams in the AL.

162 Down, 11 To Go

The bad news is that the Yankees stumbled across the finish line of the regular season with 2 straight losses to their most hated rivals.  But that's to be expected when they're rolling out A.J. and Dustin Moseley with big games on the line.

The worse news is that, in the process of choking the last 2 games away, the Yankees blew their control of their own destiny, blew a slim division lead they had built heading into this past weekend, blew the division championship, and lost homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

The good news is that the Yankees are still going to be playing baseball in October.  Any way you look at it, they are one of the best teams in baseball and have to be considered one of the favorites for the World Series.

The better news is that they have CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, and the rest of the deepest lineup in baseball.  They've got a bullpen full of power arms anchored by the greatest closer in the history of baseball, Mariano Rivera.  And they've got a rabid fanbase full of the most dedciated, supportive fans behind them and almost 100 years of tradition and history on their side.

It's gonna be exciting and it's gonna be fun.  It's just too bad we have to wait to Wednesday to get it started.