Rotation Roulette

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

Phil Hughes sucked last Thursday night, A.J. sucked on Friday night, CC was "meh" on Saturday, Ivan Nova rocked it on Sunday, Moseley wasn't very good last night, Andy is progressing well after his latest bullpen session, and in the middle of all of that Javy had 2 solid if not spectacular outings out of the bullpen after losing his spot in the rotation.

The regular season is winding down and the Yankee rotation that was its greatest strength for the first half of the season has no become the biggest question mark as the Bombers stare down the barrel of the postseason.  With all that has happened in the last week, there are all kinds of questions and theories and possibilities being thrown around as to who is going to be in the rotation for the rest of the year, who is out, who is taking this guy's place, how many starts he's getting, etc.  And all those theories and possibilities change by the day after each game.

Right now, here is what we know:

1) CC is a beast, even if he was un-CC in his last start.  He still held the lead when the team got it, he still gave them length, and he's as sure a thing as you can have on the mound for the rest of the regular season and going into the postseason.  He's exactly what every team wants from their ace.

2) A.J. Burnett has completely lost it.  He can't locate his pitches and his mental state is probably somewhere between Private Pyle in "Full Metal Jacket" and Nicolas Cage's character in "Leaving Las Vegas."  He is the weakest link in the rotation right now, but will still get the start on Wednesday.

3) Phil Hughes had arguably his worst outing of the season last time out, but has still pitched relatively well before that.  But he is inching closer to his innings limit for the season, and the Yankees seem fully committed to not pushing him over that, at least for the regular season.

4) Javy Vazquez is starting to look better after being banished to the 'pen and making an adjustment with Dave Eiland on his leg kick in his delivery.  He's back to touching 90 on the gun with his fastball and is locating it much better than he had been all month.

5) Dustin Moseley is what he is.  Nothing about his stuff makes you do a double take, so when he can locate he can be effective and when he can't he has outings like last night.  He was really only plugged in as a replacement for Pettitte, and if Javy and A.J. were pitching better he more than likely wouldn't be in the rotation now with the emergence of Ivan Nova.

6) Ivan Nova will get at least one more start, this weekend against the Blue Jays, and he has definitely earned it.  He has pitched with poise and great stuff on the mound and has given Joe no choice but to keep him in the rotation while the others continue to struggle.

And here is what we don't know:

1) Whether or not A.J.'s spot in the rotation will still be his after Wednesday.  Joe was visibly frustrated after Friday night and his "evaluation" comments certainly put the writing on the wall for A.J.

2) Who will be taking A.J.'s spot in the rotation if he bombs on Wednesday.  It would most likely be Javy, but you never know.

3) How the rest of Andy's rehab will go and when he'll actually return to the rotation.  Right now, the early prediction is in 2 weeks, but a lot could happen between now and then, especially for a 38-year-old guy who's not on HGH anymore (as far as we know).

4) Joe's plan for Nova beyond this weekend.  With the continued struggles of A.J., Javy, and Moseley, and the recent bad outing by Hughes, logic would dictate that Nova stays in the rotation as long as he continues to pitch well, but so far nothing has been committed to him beyond his next start.

5) Who is getting booted from the rotation if and when Andy comes back.  The smart money would be on Moseley, but if A.J. continues to suck Joe is going to have a tough choice to make, even tougher if Nova continues to dazzle.

The plans for Andy and what will come as a result are too far down the road to accurately predict right now, but I think some of this picture will start to clear up over the next 2 days with Phil and A.J.'s next starts.  If Phil gets back on the right track, I would say his spot is safe for the rest of the year (even if they have to shorten him up and get creative with the 'pen to manage his innings) and he probably guarantees himself a spot in the postseason rotation.  If A.J. gets it together, he will stay in the rotation for the time being but still be on a short leash.  If he fucks up again, he could be kicked out in favor of Javy.  If either one of them struggles, it could signal another start for Nova regardless of what he does this weekend.

In any case, there is a lot riding on the next 2 starts and a lot riding on the next 2 weeks for the Yankee rotation.  They are still getting by and sitting pretty in the playoff picture even with all these struggles, but some of these questions need to be answered in the next 2 weeks so theories and possibilities can become plans and strategies heading into the postseason.

How's That For The Heart Of The Order?

An .818/.833/1.636 line in 12 combined plate appearances with 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 R, and 7 RBI from your 3-4-5 hitters?  Ummm, yes please.

That's not even being the heart of the order.  That's more like being the heart, lungs, liver, and kidneys of the order.  You expect it from Teix, even if he was coming back from a minor injury.  But if Cano and Swish continue to produce like this in run-producing roles, maybe Joe will have to consider hitting The Horse 6th when he comes back to the lineup (I know, I know. Blasphemy!!)

Marcus Thames picking up a homer in his 5th straight start doesn't hurt either.

Welcome Back, Teix

Tonight's lineup, via LoHud:

1) Brett Gardner LF
2) Derek Jeter SS
3) Mark Teixeira 1B
4) Robinson Cano 2B
5) Nick Swisher RF
6) Jorge Posada C
7) Marcus Thames DH
8) Curtis Granderson CF
9) Ramiro Pena 3B

Guess the thumb injury wasn't that bad as Teix is back in tonight.  That's good news.  But where the F is Eduardo Nunez??  I haven't seen anything indicating he's hurt and I know a young buck like him doesn't need a day off.  Get his bat out there, Joe!  Don't turn the 9-spot into an automatic out just because you can.

AP Top 25 Yankee Playoff Roster Poll For The Week Of Aug. 30-Sept. 3

Here's this week's updated Top 25 Roster Poll.  Lots of changes after last week.  Bold indicates all players who moved up or down in the rankings from last week.

Top 25:
1) Mariano Rivera
2) Robinson Cano
3) CC Sabathia
4) Nick Swisher (being a competent 1B improves value w/ Teix's injury)
5) Mark Teixeira (b/c of the boo-boo)
6) Phil Hughes
7) Brett Gardner
8) Jorge Posada (starting to swing the bat better lately)
9) Curtis Granderson
10) Derek Jeter (continuing to swing the bat like crap)
11) Kerry Wood
12) Dave Robertson
13) Francisco Cervelli
14) Boone Logan
15) Austin Kearns
16) Marcus Thames (dude is killing it right now)
17) Alex Rodriguez
18) Joba Chamberlain
19) Eduardo Nunez (looks better at the plate in each at-bat)
20) Sergio Mitre
21) Ivan Nova
22) Dustin Moseley (still hanging around)
23) Ramiro Pena (Nunez's improvement isn't helping his case)
24) A.J. Burnett (status looks worse every time out)
25) Javy Vazquez (stays on b/c of A.J.'s meltdown)

Also Receiving Votes:
26) Andy Pettitte (injury status improving)
27) Lance Berkman (rehabbing in Trenton this week)
28) Alfredo Aceves (struggled in last 2 rehab outings)
29) Chad Gaudin (most likely won't be on team when everybody is healthy)
30) Damaso Marte (due to injury status)

This Ain't No Rookie Sh!t

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

That's essentially what Ivan Nova said to the world and the Chicago White Sox yesterday with his performance.  In only his second career Major League start, Nova carried himself like a seasoned veteran on the mound, pitching with poise and confidence beyond his years, using all 4 of his pitches effectively, and attacking the White Sox hitters.  He may be only 23 years old, but he sure doesn't pitch like a rookie.

Somebody should probably also remind Joe of that fact, as he decided to take Nova out early again, this time after only 88 pitches.  Joe said after the game that it looked like Nova was starting to get up in the zone so he made the call to remove him with the lead intact.  But he had just allowed one baserunner and there were 2 outs, why not give the kid a chance to get out of the inning?

Last time I checked, the Yanks were still deadlocked with Tampa for the division lead and their rotation, while not in complete shambles, wasn't the dominating force it was earlier in the year.  As a manager, your decisions should be based on what gives the team the best chance to win, not on how concerned you are about a young pitcher's ability to get out of a relatively low-leverage situation.  Yesterday Nova gave the Yankees the best chance to win and he should have been allowed to get out of the inning.  He wasn't struggling, wasn't losing command or velocity, and didn't have a high pitch count, so let the kid fucking pitch!  Thankfully the Boone Logan-Kerry Wood combo didn't completely screw the pooch after loading the bases.

Joe did say after the game that Nova will stay in the rotation for his next start, and given the continued struggles of A.J. and Javy, he could very well earn a postseason roster spot.  Now is the time to find out what he can really do in a pressure situation.  So far Nova hasn't pitched like a rookie, so he shouldn't be treated like one.  It ain't no rookie shit indeed.

Just Filthy...

Will Ivan Nova fuck your shit up?  Why yes, yes he will.

Is he getting another start in the rotation?  Why yes, yes he is.

Is he a bad man?  Why yes, yes he definitely is.  If only Javy and A.J. could be so strong...

Night And Day

Last night was the perfect of example of what A.J. Burnett lacks and why CC Sabathia is so important to the Yankee rotation.

On Friday night, A.J. didn't have his A-game (as usual) and he just kept throwing the same shitty pitches that got hammered while he felt sorry for himself.  There was no regrouping, no fixing what wasn't working, nothing.

Last night, CC steps out on the mound without his A-game as well.  After being handed a 6-1 lead, he made some bad pitches and after 4 innings it was 6-5.  However, after his team got him 4 runs in the top of the 5th, CC came back out in the bottom of the inning, beared down, and proceeded to throw 3 innings of shutout ball, allowing just 2 baserunners and striking out 5 to preserve the lead into the 7th.  And it was a damn good thing too because the bullpen sucked last night.

If that was A.J. out there with a 5-run lead after giving up 2-run homers in back-to-back innings, God only knows what he would have done in the bottom of the 5th.  But CC recognized that his team had picked him up, he toughened up, he focused, he changed his approach, made better pitches, and made the lead stand up.  That's what a veteran pitcher does, that's what a good pitcher does, and that's what an ace does.

A.J., I hope you were taking notes.

A.J. Burnett Is Delusional

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

From George King's article in the Post today:

"I don't know what that means," Burnett said when Girardi's 'evaluation' comment was presented to him.

It means you fucking sucked last night and you sucked the start before that during a time where the rotation already has plenty of question marks and you should be counted on to provide some stability.  Not to mention the fact that you've sucked for the majority of the season without showing any ability to correct the problems you continue to have.

"I look forward to my next start. [Not making the start] would surprise me, but he makes the decisions."

Surprising.  Of course.  Because what manager wouldn't want to throw a guy out there who has pitched to a 12.19 ERA and 2.52 WHIP in his last 2 starts?  Especially when that guy is his supposed #2 pitcher, who happens to be making $16.5 million this season, and is an 11-year MLB veteran that should know how to handle himself out on the mound but always shits the bed at the first sign of trouble like a scared Little Leaguer.  You're right, A.J.  That would be surprising.

"I am not getting swings [on pitches] I was getting before.  I am getting too much of the plate."

You're not getting swings on those pitches you were before, A.J., because those pitches are miles out of the strikezone and usually heading to the backstop, as indicated by your 3 wild pitches and 3 walks in just 3.1 innings last night.  The ones you're getting too much of the plate on are the ones that are being swung at.  And they're being deposited all over the ballpark.

Consider yourself lucky that Joe left you an option to possibly make your next start.  If it was up to me, your sorry ass wouldn't even be allowed in the clubhouse.

Somebody Tell Me There's A Team Option In His Contract

A.J., I don't have words to describe how disgusting your performance was tonight.  You make me absolutely sick and I hope you fall down in the shower in your hotel room tomorrow morning and are out for the rest of the season.  If I could, I would sever every tendon, muscle, and ligament in both of your arms so that you had to have Tommy John, Timmy Jim, Tony Jack, and every other surgery known to man to keep you out of the rotation and off the mound for the remainder of your fucking contract.

I know the rest of your supporting cast behind you didn't show up tonight, and that never helps, but the team has picked you up in your shitty starts enough times and you've been in the big leagues long enough that you should have a little hair on your peaches at this point and be able to bear down and pitch well to help the rest of the club out when it's clear they don't have their A-game.  At this point, you and Javy can both go play in fucking rush hour traffic for all I care.  Fuck off and die.

P.S.- Joe, it's time to cut the shit with the cliches and press conferences about fucking Chicago and what you're doing next year and time to close the locker room doors and air these motherfuckers out.  It's been like watching "Night of The Living Dead" with all the sloppy, lackadaisical bullshit out there lately.  Step up and do your fucking job and get these motherfuckers re-focused.

Sucks For You, Bro

All the Washington Nationals fans can now put that gun in their mouths.

Thank you, innings limit.  Thank you so very much.  It's good to know that there is actual value in you.

Friday Morning Linkapalooza

Here's a quick selection for you to peruse on this Friday:

- Mike at RAB reminds us that the current issues plaguing the Yankee rotation are nothing new to the team.  I myself had never even stopped to consider the similarities between this time last year and this time this year, and when you see that the Yanks do have almost an identical record to what they had this time in 2009 with a better run differential, it does make you feel a little better.  So thanks for that, Mike.

- Multiple takes on the MLB revenue sharing leaks from earlier this week: Larry from IATMS' is here, Rob Neyer's is here, and Jayson Stark's is here.  There are plenty of opinions out there, and while I don't think that teams should HAVE to spend every cent they receive through the program, they should at least make an effort if they're going to bitch and moan about how much money the Yankees have.  No matter what you think, this news this week shows just how flawed the current system is.

- SJK at No Maas goes big time Debbie Downer on The Horse's and The Captain's 2010 seasons.  It hurts to look at those numbers and while I don't think either of the 2 are finished by any stretch of the imagine, the numbers don't lie.  It is officially time for us all to accept that 2 of the greatest players of their generation are starting their declines.  Hopefully they still have something left in those bats for the postseason.

- While Jeet and A-Diaz may be scuffling this year, the ageless Mo continues to churn along, and Mark Simon of ESPN NY discusses Mo's lessened workload this year and how that extra rest may translate to more postseason success.  I'll take an extra helping of that, please!

- Chad Jennings at LoHud has the details on the biggest event of the day for all Yankee fans, Andy's bullpen session.  I've got my lucky rabbit's foot in one hand and my lucky bean from the Jersey shore in the other, praying to Joe Pesci that the groin holds up.

- And if it doesn't, Steve S. at TYU thinks that signals the arrival of Hiroki Kuroda.  I can't say I would be thrilled with this move, given that the Yanks are still in first and getting decent innings from Dustin Moseley.  But if Pettitte is shelved for the year, I think I'd rather go into battle in the playoffs with Kuroda as my 4th starter over Moseley or Vazquez.

I Lied Yesterday

I told everybody to check back last night for the unveiling of the first AP Top 25 Yankee Playoff Roster Poll and then didn't post it.  Sorry, had a beer too many at trivia and the bed was calling when I got home.  But to make up for it, I did the research, counted up all the votes, and now, a day late, here is the first poll:

(Remember, the poll always works under the assumption that the playoffs start today)

Top 25
1) Mariano Rivera
2) Robinson Cano
3) CC Sabathia
4) Mark Teixeira
5) Nick Swisher
6) Phil Hughes
7) Brett Gardner
8) Derek Jeter
9) Curtis Granderson
10) Jorge Posada
11) Dave Robertson
12) Kerry Wood
13) Francisco Cervelli
14) Boone Logan
15) A.J. Burnett
16) Austin Kearns
17) Alex Rodriguez
18) Marcus Thames
19) Joba Chamberlain
20) Ramiro Pena
21) Sergio Mitre
22) Dustin Moseley (only here b/c Pettitte is hurt)
23) Eduardo Nunez (only here b/c Berkman is hurt)
24) Chad Gaudin (only here b/c Aceves is hurt)
25) Javy Vazquez (only here b/c Marte is hurt)

Also Receiving Votes:
26) Andy Pettitte (due to injury status)
27) Alfredo Aceves (due to rehab status)
28) Lance Berkman (due to injury status)
29) Damaso Marte (due to injury status)

Looking Towards The Postseason (And Postseason Roster)

I don't want to try to jinx anything here, but at this point in the season I think we can all agree that the Yankees will make the playoffs one way or another.  So now the question becomes, what is their initial postseason 25-man roster going to look like?  Taking injuries out of the equation, we can safely assume the roster will look like this:

Lineup:

1) Jeter
2) Swish
3) Teix
4) The Horse
5) Bobinson
6) Jorge
7) Berkman
8) C-Grand
9) Gardner

Rotation:

1) CC
2) A.J.
3) Andy
4) Hughes

Bench: Cervelli, Kearns, Thames, Pena

Bullpen: Mo, D-Rob, Wood, Joba, Marte, Boone Logan (the only guy who doesn't get a nickname or even his name shortened because "Boone Logan" just sounds badass), Aceves, Vazquez

Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury of taking injuries out of the equation, and if the playoffs were to start today, you wouldn't be seeing A-Rod, Berkman, Andy, Marte, or Aceves on the roster for the ALDS.  Their spots would most likely be filled up by Eduardo Nunez, Dustin Moseley, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and Chad Gaudin for 12 positional players and 13 pitchers instead of the other way around.

We more than likely won't be seeing Nunez or Gaudin on the postseason roster as A-Rod will be back, but the other 4 guys are not such sure bets to make it back.  Andy has already had setbacks to his return and is still out until at least mid-September, Berkman's injured ankle could linger and limit his ability to play, Aceves has battled his back issues all year and got rocked in his last rehab outing last night, and nobody seems to know anything about Damaso Marte's status so he might have actually died.  This combined uncertainty about guys who would be playoff roster staples combined with the continued piss-poor performance from A.J. and Javy poses some very interesting scenarios and choices for the Yankees.

As it is right now, I would not even consider putting Vazquez on the roster, instead putting Sergio Mitre in the 'pen as the long man.  And I've already stated that I would rather see Phil Hughes start Game 2 of any and every series and push A.J. back to the 4th starter role if Andy is good to go.  But what if Andy can't go?  Who becomes the 4th starter?  If Ivan Nova dazzles down the stretch, does he deserve a spot?  If Nunez starts to adjust to Major League pitching in the last month and starts hitting better, does he get the utility spot over Pena?  And who is the next position player in line to fill in if another guy goes down?  These are the important possibilities the Yanks are going to have to consider as the season winds down.

** Check back tonight for my initial 2010 AP Top 25 Yankee Playoff Roster Poll. **

A Whole Little For A Whole Lot And Vice Versa

Just in case we needed a reminder, here's how bad A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez have been this year.  Their combined stats for the season are as follows:

18-20, 278 IP, 285 H, 113 BB, 152 ER, 213 K, 4.92 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.88K/BB ratio

Just putrid.  And when you factor in their combined $28 million in salary this year, the Yankees are paying them $1,555,555.556 per win this year.

For the sake of comparison, here are Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova's combined stats:

5-2, 54 IP, 54 H, 19 BB, 25 ER, 27 K, 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.42 K/BB ratio

Now I know that's a very small sample size, but still.  Come the fuck on!  If you would have asked most Yankee fans if they thought A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez were going to put up combined numbers so bad that the Yankees would be skipping their starts and separating them in the rotation with 23-year-old Triple-A pitchers while they counted on Dustin Moseley to provide some balance and winning to the rotation, they would have emphatically said "no."

The point is, A.J. and Javy were being counted on this season to provide length and stability to a rotation that featured an older pitcher who did end up on the DL and a younger one on an innings limit and they haven't done that.  It's actually kind of sad that the Yankees have had to count on Moseley and Nova this year, but thank The Almighty Jesus Montero for Moseley and Nova being there.  Their combined contracts value is $800,000 so the Yanks are paying them chump change for their wins and innings while they give away millions to Dink and Doink for a sub-.500 record and 3- and 4-inning clunkers.

At this point, Javy has all but pitched himself off the playoff roster, and A.J. may not be far behind.  At the very least, he would be the 4th guy in my rotation behind CC, Hughes, and Andy (assuming Andy is healthy).  And if he can't get it together over the last month of the season, I wouldn't hesitate to put Moseley or Nova on the playoff roster and throw them out there for a Game 4 start if I were Joe.

For all the bang for their buck that the Yanks have gotten from CC, Teix, and Swish, they simply aren't getting anything from A.J. and Javy.

As If A 5-HR, 11-Run, Solid Dustin Moseley-Performance Beatdown Wasn't Enough To Be Happy About...

... I wake up to this little tidbit of information via LoHud about Javy being skipped over for Ivan Nova this weekend.



It's only for one start, but it's better than nothing.  At least the Yankees are making decisions that give the team the best chance to win rather than throwing more unearned loyalty to a veteran who's pitching like dogshit.  That being said, I'm sure Javy will be back in the rotation after he gets skipped on Sunday, but you never know.  If Nova goes out and pitches well again this weekend, he could make the decision very difficult.  At the very least, the Yankees will step on the field this Sunday with a chance to win, something they wouldn't have with Javy out there.

The Newest Member Of The AB4AR Photoshop Club

Introducing Nova The Terrible. 

He'll work out of bases-loaded jams with ease.  He'll throw consecutive changeups and get you to swing and miss at both of them.  He'll come up and in on you after you grandstand a home run a little too long and then talk shit to you.  And he might even kill his son by whacking him across the head with his staff.

And if you don't get that last reference, click this link here and learn something.  We're not just about goofy Photoshops and bullshit here at AB4AR.  We're also about education.

The Happiest I've Ever Been After A Loss

It's never good to lose when you're in the middle of a tight pennant race, but considering everything that went with last night's game, I'm not too upset.

For starters, there was no Jeter, no A-Rod, and no Kearns in the lineup, so the 7-8-9 hitters were Eduardo Nunez, Ramiro Pena, and Frankie Cervelli.  Not exactly Murderer's Row there.

Secondly, with a lineup like that and Brandon Morrow pitching like he was last night, the Yankees weren't going to score a lot of runs.

Thirdly, D-Rob was bound to have a hiccup sooner or later.  It was just bad luck that it happened in a low-scoring tie game.  These things happen.  No reason to start freaking out about him or the bullpen again.

And lastly, Ivan Nova was very impressive last night.  After loading the bases to start the game, he worked out of that first-inning jam without allowing a run, and then worked 5.1 innings of 2-run ball against a very dangerous lineup.  He made one bad mistake to Jose Bautista, something that plenty of other pitchers have done this year, and he paid for it.  But his stuff looked good, his composure was there, and if it weren't for Joe inexplicably removing him after only 73 pitches his line could have ended up looking even better.

Even more important than that, though, was the up-and-in job on Bautista in his next at-bat after the home run.  I fucking loved that.  Bautista got a little animated with his bat flip, Nova didn't appreciate it, and he let Bautista know about it.  And the pitch really wasn't all that close to Bautista; it brought back memories of the Clemens-Manny high and tight pitch from the playoffs years back.  Bautista overreacted just like Manny did and Nova didn't back down.  Throwing the pitch in the first place and then standing up to the guy are ballsy moves for a young pitcher making his first career start and I absolutely loved it.  That move alone should guarantee Nova a spot in the rotation for the rest of the year and in 2011.  Kid is a fucking gamer, no doubt about it.

So yeah, the Yanks lost, but I feel good about things moving forward.  The lineup should look better tonight, the bullpen is still pitching well.  It's all good.

** Update- 11:54AM: Fifthly, the umps were fucking awful last night.  Not much you can do when you aren't getting calls.** 

What To Expect From Ivan Nova Tonight

While it isn't taking Javy's spot in the rotation 2 weeks ago like it should have been, Ivan Nova will make his Yankee debut tonight against Toronto.

Nova has been the best and most consistent pitcher on the SWB roster in Triple-A this year.  In 23 starts, he is 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.26WHIP, and 115 Ks to 48 BB for a respectable 2.40 K/BB ratio.  Perhaps the best thing about Nova is that he provides length out there on the mound.  In his last 10 starts, he has not gone fewer than 6 innings and in 7 of those 10 he went at least 6.2.  For the season he has pitched 145 innings in his 23 appearances, which comes out to just below 6.1 innings per start, so you know there aren't many (if any) 3- or 4-inning Javy or A.J. bombjob outings in there.

Nova works with 3 pitches: fastball, changeup, curve.  He works primarily with the fastball, usually between 92-94MPH, and is good at keeping it down in the zone.  The changeup is his secondary pitch and the curve is above average, but inconsistent.  When Nova has one or both working and can work both sides of the strike zone with his heater, he is tough to handle.

With all that in mind, and knowing that the Yanks are facing a slugging team tonight, what can/should we expect from Nova?  In a perfect world I would say I'd like to see his line look something like this:

6-7 IP, 4-5 H, 1-2 BB, 2-3 ER, 5-6 K

But in reality, I think I would be happy with this:

5-6 IP, 6-8 H, 2-3 BB, 3-4 ER, 3-4 K

Anything in between those 2 would be more than acceptable, especially given the power the Jays have in their lineup.  If Nova can keep the ball down tonight as he usually tries to do, I think he will do fine.  If he gets the ball up, he'll be in trouble.  There's a lot of opportunity for Nova tonight, both in establishing a role for the remainder of this season and maybe, just maybe garnering consideration for the postseason roster, and in starting to establish himself as a contender for a rotation spot for 2011.  It should be interesting to watch tonight and I am bummed out that I have to miss it being back out here, YES-less, in Wisconsin.

For a much better-written profile on Nova, check out RAB's Prospect Profile from last December.

Back To The Grind

Mondays suck.  Everybody knows this.  And first days back to work after a week of vacation suck too.  So today is a doubly sucktastic day for me.

In case your day is sucking as bad as mine right now, here's some stuff to cheer you up:

- The video of Robbie's grand slam yesterday.

- And a picture of Jorge's superhot cougar wife, Laura.

There.  Don't you feel better?

Robbie & CC: Partners In Awesomeness

2-5 with a grand slam and 6 RBIs for Robbie from the cleanup spot and 6 rain-shortened, 8-K shutout innings from Carsten for his AL-leading 17th win today.

I'd say the MVP and Cy Young races just heated up again.  Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, David Price, and Cliff Lee better not get too comfortable.  Bobinson and Parachute Pants are coming for ya.

The Horse Gets 15 Days Out To Pasture

Obviously, the biggest news to come out of Joe's postgame presser today was the announcement that A-Rod will be put on the 15-day DL after his latest setback in his return from his strained calf.  Now he can't trick the training staff into thinking he's fully recovered and will have plenty of time to rest all his calves and hooves and get his coat brushed and tail braided.

The good news in this situation is that the Yanks are 11-0 this season without The Horse in the lineup, and Eduardo Nunez will now get a legit shot to show what he can do and not just be a mid-summer cup of coffee type of call up.  Between he and Ramiro Pena, the Yanks should be able to piece it together at the hot corner for the next couple of weeks while A-Rod gets back to 100% in time for the stretch run.

The other good news is that the free roster spot means Ivan Nova finally gets the call up he's deserved for weeks.  It's not the ideal situation, since A-Rod is on the DL instead of Javy Vazquez, but Nova will get his shot on Monday, and if he impresses he could take over Vazquez's spot in the rotation.

Normally it's a catastrophe when your RBI leader goes down, but in this case I'm not that worried.  This works out for A-Rod because it forces him to get completely healthy and not rush back into the lineup before he's ready, and it gives the Yankees a chance to stabilize their rotation for this year and audition for a spot in the rotation in 2011.  Is this the best calf strain in the history of baseball?  It just damn well might be.

It's Deja Vu All Over Again

Nice job out there today, Javy.  Way to battle and make pitches when you had to.  And way to give the team some length and confidence moving forward with Andy's recent setback.

Boo.

BOOOO.

BOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

FUCKING BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Javy has gone fewer innings in each of his last 5 starts now.  Put him on the fucking DL and call up Ivan Nova.  If you can't even count on a guy to get you more than 3 or 4 innings then he shouldn't be in the rotation.  And if there really is nothing wrong with Javy to justify him going on the DL, then send Paulie Walnuts and Christopher over to his place and fucking kneecap him because this is just downright painful to watch.

Hmmm, What's The Word I'm Looking For To Describe A.J.'s Start Tonight?

(Photo of the worst pitcher on the Yankees courtesy of The AP)

Oh yeah, that's right.  Boo.  Booooooo.

Booooooooooooo!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And if you're keeping score at home, here's the updated list of pitchers the Yankees can't hit:

1) Rookies making their first career MLB start.
2) Young pitchers they've never faced.
3) 2003-version Josh Beckett.
4) Felix Hernandez.

Felix Hernandez Again?

What would you set the over/under at for Yankee hits off King Felix tonight?  3?  4?  Seeing as how he completely dominated the lineup last time and the lineup for the Yankees tonight will probably be not as potent as last time with The Horse and Berkman on the bench, I'd say 4 would be kind.

That being said, I'm rolling with the punches and taking the over on my self-made line.  Call me crazy, but I see some hits and some walks and even a couple runs in the cards for the Bombers tonight.  This is probably why I don't gamble...

A Little Love For Phil Hughes

(Photo courtesy of The AP)

Phil Hughes started the season hotter than any other pitcher in the game and continued that good pitching through May.  However, he struggled through June and July and since then people seem to have just passed him over as a young guy with an innings limit who still has a lot to learn.  Under the radar of all this "Phil Hughes still has a lot to work on" talk is the fact that Hughes has been very good in his last 5 starts dating back to his 3-2 loss to Tampa on July 30.  Hughes continued his recent solid streak yesterday, going 6 innings of 4-hit, 2-run, 0-walk, 6-K ball to pick up his 15th win of the season.

Given that 40% of the Yankee rotation has been an all-or-nothing crapshoot this year thanks to the A.J.-Javy combo, and the guy who had arguably been their best pitcher all season could be out until the end of September, I think there needs to be a little more appreciation given to Hughes for the job he has done this year.  Let's not forget that Hughes wasn't expected to do much more this season than provide innings as a 5th starter and gain experience to eventually replace either Vazquez a/o Pettitte in the rotation in 2011.  Instead, Hughes has been one of the 10-15 best pitchers in the AL and probably the 2nd best pitcher in the Yankee rotation given his overall consistency and health.  Here's proof:

- Hughes is 15-5 in his 23 starts this year, the Yankees have won 17 of his 23 starts overall.  On top of that, Hughes has lost 3-2 to Tampa, 2-1 to Boston, and got a no decision in a game against Baltimore in April when he allowed only 1 run over 5.2 innings.  If the Yanks pick up a handful of runs in those outings, Hughes is sitting 18-3 right now with the Yanks going 20-3 over all his starts.

- Hughes has given the Yankees max value for the money they are paying him this year.  13 quality starts out of 23 and 15 wins for a 2010 salary of $447,000, which comes out to $29,800 per win, certainly a better ratio than what the Steinbrenners are paying A.J. and Javy per win and certainly better than what the Red Sox are paying Josh Beckett and John Lackey for their performances this year.

- Hughes' WHIP of 1.21 is 18th in the AL and lower than the WHIPs of other pitchers like Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Ricky Romero, AL Cy Young favorite David Price, and teammate CC Sabathia.

- After giving up 11 walks in his first 3 starts, Hughes has allowed just 27 walks over his last 20 starts, comprising 122.2 innings and coming out to just 1.98 BB/9.  Combine that total with his 116 strikeouts and his K/BB ratio for the season is 3.05/1, better than that of guys like Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, and Matt Garza.

- According to Baseball-Reference.com, Hughes has a positive WAR of 1.9, a positive WPA of 1.8, and has OPS against and BABIP numbers below league average (.694 to .749 league average for OPS, .283 to .300 for BABIP).

Let's not forget that this is coming from a guy who is still one of the youngest players in the AL at 24 and came into Spring Training in an open competition to become the 5th starter.  After winning the competition, I would bet the Yankees would have been ecstatic to get league average production from Hughes.  Instead he has stepped up in the face of the Yankees' rotation problems, his innings limit, his own injury history, and his lack of experience as a full-time Major League-level starter to basically be the Yankees' #3 and now #2 starter.

So let's all take a minute to stop worrying about Hughes' inning limit and how it could affect the team down the stretch, stop worrying about his high home run total allowed this year, stop worrying about what he still has to work on to improve his approach the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup, and just tip our caps to Phil and appreciate what he has done for this team this year.

Good job, Phil.  Damn good job.  I don't know where we'd be without you this season.