This Postseason Is Everything The Yankees Aren't

I've watched a fair amount of the MLB postseason so far, but last night was the first night I really sat down and WATCHED the games for extended periods of time.  With every series in action and the week's fantasy football matchup win already locked up, the timing was perfect.  As I sat watching 3 close, competitive, great games I was struck by a jarring reality; the Yankees really don't deserve to be in the postseason.  OK, maybe it's not that jarring when you remember how bad most of their team numbers were this season, but jarring in a sense that goes beyond the numbers.

It's more than just the numbers, it's the way the teams in the playoffs have built their rosters to contend.  There are bits and pieces everywhere of what the Yankees used to be, what they've gotten away from, and what they've never been.  The collection of teams in the playoffs and the various paths they've taken to get there are a perfect example of just how far off the mark the Yankees are with their business and baseball models.

Picking The Hypothetical Yankee Playoff Roster

The Yankees aren't going to be participating in the postseason this year.  It's only the second time we've been able to say that since 1994, and with the type of baseball we watched them play for the majority of the season it's probably for the best that they're on the outside looking in.  I've gotten so used to doing the end-of-year debate about the playoff roster that it's strange to not have to think about that this year.  Chances are the Yankees wouldn't get very far in the playoffs regardless of what 25 guys they took, but trying to predict the playoff roster is usually one of the more fun exercises of the year.  In the interest of trying to have a little fun, here's what my hypothetical 25-man playoff roster would look like.

Time To Make Some Hay

The Yankees went 4-7 on their 11-game AL East gauntlet, nearly sweeping the O's and then getting swept by the Sawx in the final 7 games.  That put them in a really deep hole with respect to the Wild Card race, but they've got an opportunity to climb out with their remaining schedule.

The Yanks have 12 games left, 6 home and 6 on the road.  They start off tonight in Toronto, against a team they've owned this season, before heading home for 3 against the San Francisco Giants, staying there for 3 against the Rays, and then finishing up on the road against the lowly Astros.  9 of the 12 remaining games are against sub-.500 teams and the other 3 are against the team they're chasing in the playoff race.  For as daunting a task as it is for them to come back and make the playoffs, that schedule does make it a bit easier.

89 wins is the number being thrown out as the key number to make the playoffs.  The Yankees need to go 10-2 in this last week plus to reach that number.  It's hard to see them sweeping the Rays, even at home, so they basically have to go 8-1 in those other 9 games to have a chance.  It's not impossible, but it is a longshot.  If there's one more run left in this tired, tattered group, it needs to start tonight in Toronto.

How's That Early Second Half Schedule Looking?

The Yankees resume their regular season tomorrow night and they'll start it deep in enemy territory with a 3-game weekend series in Bahhhston.  At 51-44, they currently sit 4th in the AL East , 6 games behind the Sawx (5 in the loss column) and 3 games behind both the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card.  As luck would have it, the Yanks play their first 10 games of the second half against those 3 teams in what could be the make-or-break stretch for their postseason hopes.

After Baahhhston, the Yanks will travel to Texas for 4 before heading right back east for a 3-game home set against Tampa.  Then it's travel off day to the West Coast, 2 games against the Dodgers, travel off day, 3 at San Diego, 3 at the White Sox, travel off day, and 3 back at home against the Tigers.  21 games, 15 on the road, the first 10 against the 3 teams they're chasing in the playoff race, and the final 3 against the reigning AL champs.  The extra off days are nice, but that's still a tough stretch.  There's the soft underbelly of the 6 against the Padres and White Sox, but after going 3-4 against KC and Minnesota last week even those games can't be called gimmes anymore.

The end of this first second half stretch will bring the Yankees to August 12th.  The trade deadline will pass in that span, and perhaps a player or 2 will return from the DL.  By that Monday, we should know if the Yankees are serious postseason contenders or packing up the tents for the season.  They don't necessarily have to gain a ton of ground in the next 3 weeks, but they can't afford to lose much more.

Appreciating Russell Martin's Postseason

(Ouch, guy.  Very ouch.  Courtesy of the Daily News)

Lost in all the talk about the sputtering offense, ever-changing lineups, and who Alex Rodriguez is or isn’t talking to in the stands has been the quietly valuable performance of a one Russell Martin. You remember him, right? The guy who spent the majority of the regular season batting below the Mendoza Line and then turned things around enough in September to probably earn himself a new deal with the Yankees next year? It wouldn’t be all that surprising if you had forgotten about him; his .172/.250/.310 tripleslash in the postseason isn’t exactly a resume builder and is more representative of his early-season struggles than his strong finish. But after playing through what is always a grueling regular season for a catcher, Martin has been out there behind the plate for every playoff game, has done a very good job back there, and that is something that should not be discounted.

Why Does This Sh*t Always Happen When I Go To Weddings?

Seriously, that's not even meant to be a humorous question.  There have been four instances this year where I've had to take days off from the blog for wedding-related activities, and every single time something out of the ordinary happened.

My one buddy's bachelor party on April 21st was the amazing 15-9 comeback win against the Fraud Sawx, and his wedding on June 2nd was the 4-3 loss to the Tigers when Joe and Kevin Long got run by Bob Davidson.   My other buddy's bachelor party on September 22nd was the crazy 14-inning win against Oakland that started the almost month-long Raul Ibanez Clutch Hit Party, and his wedding last night was Game 1 of the ALCS, where the Yanks showed nothing on offense again only to make a dramatic 4-run comeback in the 9th to tie the game only to lose in extras.  Oh, and Derek Jeter, the most consistent player in the lineup right now, broke his ankle and is out for the rest of the year.

Maybe I should just start being a huge dick to everybody so I don't get invited to any more weddings.  I always end up missing out on great games and great blogging material.  Game 2 preview coming up shortly...

A Word On The Weak Yankee Stadium Crowd

(This is not a good look.  Courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Newsday)

The statistical advantage will be on the Yankees’ side tonight with the series shifting back to Yankee Stadium. But the other great part about playing at home in the postseason is the emotional lift a team gets from its home crowd. The atmosphere, the cheering, the mere feeling of anticipation and tension building in the stadium as the fans get ready to explode, while not being something that can be statistically measured, is something that can have an impact on a game. That impact will be something to monitor tonight simply because next to comments on the price of beer, the expensive tickets, and the “living monument” presentation of the team history in the new Yankee Stadium, the one comment that I’ve heard most consistently about it from people who have been there is that it doesn’t have the same feel and energy to it as the old Stadium did.

Having still not lost my new Stadium virginity yet, I’m not qualified to comment on that from personal experience, but from what I’ve seen come across on the TV broadcasts of the past few homes games I’ve watched I would have to agree with that assessment. The Stadium hasn’t been full, the fans haven’t been loud or even seemingly into the games at all. The whole atmosphere in the place feels like it’s just a bunch of people who came to watch a baseball game because it was something to do, and that needs to stop tonight.

As The A-Rod Turns (And Walks Back To The Dugout Frowning After Striking Out)

(#Failboat.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

I ended my last A-Rod post with the following statement:

“Maybe the best move to start is to see how the opposing team approaches A-Rod and hope that he finds his power swing. If he doesn’t, though, it might be time to go back to the drawing board and bump him down.”

4 days and 2 ALDS games have passed since then, and in case you hadn’t noticed, Alex Rodriguez is still swinging a limp, lifeless bat. It’s not quite “dogs and cats living together” levels of hysteria in Yankeeland over this situation, but the overwhelming majority of people out there think it’s time for A-Rod to be removed from the 3rd spot in the batting order, and I’m becoming more and more inclined to agree with them. As Mike Eder pointed out earlier today, playoff performance and statistics always need to be looked at in the proper context, that context being one of constant small sample size and lack of reasonable conclusions that can be drawn for them.

Keeping that in mind, it’s certainly overkill to say that A-Rod sucks based solely on his production in the first 2 games of this series. But expanding that sample size scope beyond just the ALDS, it’s clear that those numbers have not just been an isolated SSS fluke, but rather a continuation of a trend that started the day Rodriguez came off the DL.

Yankee Postseason Roster Officially Unveiled

And it's got no surprises.  Via Bryan Hoch, the 25-man that the Bombers will carry into the ALDS against Baltimore will be exactly what everybody thought it would be yesterday once Andruw Jones announced he would not be included.  Brett Gardner, Jayson Nix, and Derek Lowe are in; Jones, Chris Dickerson, Cody Eppley, and Ivan Nova are out.

Final ALDS Roster-

Position Players: Martin, Stewart, Teixeira, Cano, Nix, Jeter, Nunez, A-Rod, Chavez, Swisher, Granderson, Ichiro, Gardner, Ibanez

Pitchers: Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes, Soriano, D-Rob, Logan, Joba, Phelps, Rapada, Lowe

AB4AR's Final Playoff Roster Prediction

Joe's getting his Jim Gordon on and playing things close to the vest with announcements about his postseason roster, so not much has been confirmed yet.  We know that Casey McGehee won't be a part of the club, which is a bit of information that should elicit almost no emotional response, good or bad.  We know that CC Sabathia is getting the ball tonight to start Game 1 of the series, which has been a scientific fact since the moment he walked off the mound in his last regular season start.  We know about 22-23 of the guys whose names will inevitably be chosen, it's not that hard to figure out, so we're really only waiting for Joe to confirm those last 2 or 3 names.  But AB4AR waits for no one!  I'm going to help Joe get the news out of the way early with the official AB4AR 25-man postseason roster final selection.

Who Cares If It's The O's Or The Rangers?

Everybody has been doing the "who would you rather face?" posts the past day or so in preparation for Game 1 of the ALDS on Sunday.  To be honest, I don't see the value in it.  There's no way to predict which of those teams is going to win and actually be the opponent, and at the end of the day there really isn't a clear advantage for the Yankees over one or the other.

Against the Orioles and the Rangers this season, the Yankees were a combined 13-12 with a +1 run differential.  They were practically dead even with both teams.  Both teams sport a pair of potentially tough lefties to match up with CC and Andy, they both have solid bullpens, and they both have lineups capable of doing a lot of damage in a hurry.  If you want to make the "yeah, but the Rangers blew a huge lead and aren't playing good baseball right now" argument, I'll admit that you're right and then remind you the O's just loss 2 of 3 to the Rays to close the season and only scored 1 run in the game they won; they aren't exactly burning the world down themselves.

There's too many similarities between both teams and too little of a past history advantage to point to for the Yanks to really feel better about facing one or the other.  What I am rooting for is a long game tonight, preferably 15 innings, with a lot of scoring early so both teams have to chew up their bullpens and possibly get another starter involved.  That will give the Yankees an advantage and that's something I would root for.  As far as the colors of the jersey and logo of the hat, I really don't give a shit.

Setting The Stage For Game 162

(Hopefully it's not as stressful, but I'd take a repeat of this celebration tonight.  Courtesy of the AP)

I can't remember the last time the Yankees played a final regular season game with this much meaning.  And no, I'm not going to bother looking it up because there are plenty of other blogs out there that handle historical stuff better than mine.  It's been frustrating, agonizing, refreshing, and exciting watching this last month of slim-to-none division leads, and it all boils down to what should be an incredibly drama-filled night of baseball tonight.  The Yankees, after being in a pretty precarious spot last Sunday morning, have done what they needed to do and won their last 3 games, and they now find themselves in the driver's seat tonight with the man who has been their most consistent pitcher this season on the mound against a guy who has been absolute dog crap for his team.  So what should we be looking for tonight?  Here's my thoughts after the jump.