ALDS Game 3 Preview: Ace Vs. Ace (Again)

Pitching Matchup: Sabathia (19-8) vs. Verlander (24-5)

Starting Lineups:

NYY- Jeter (SS), C-Grand (CF), Cano (2B), A-Rod (3B), Teix (1B), Swish (RF), Jorge (DH), Martin (C), Gardner (LF)

DET- Jackson (CF), Santiago (2B), Young (LF), Cabrera (1B), Martinez (DH), Ordonez (RF), Peralta (SS), Avila (C), Inge (3B)

3 Things to Watch For:

1) Verlander & CC The 2nd Time Around

With Game 3 being in Detroit, it would seem logical that Verlander has more of an advantage here than in Game 1.  But in looking at the numbers, Verlander's home/road splits are marginal (2.37/2.69 home, 2.43/3.26 road) and CC's road numbers (2.93 ERA/3.03 FIP) are just as good as what he did at home.  The bigger factor is going to be recent performance.  And in looking back at Game 1, CC appeared to be the better pitcher before the rains came (home run aside) while Verlander struggled with his command through a 25-pitch 1st inning.  If CC can carry over his apparently rediscovered command from Game 1 and Verlander is still having issues, the homefield advantage could be flipped on its head. 

2) A Jesus Sighting

Jeter looked awful last night, Teix's new stance still isn't returning any dividends, A-Rod is a walking injury report, and the team is coming off of a rough offensive outing.  Surprisingly enough, Jorge Posada has been the best Yankee hitter not named Robinson Cano through the first 2 games, so it's unlikely Montero would unseat him tonight.  But we saw Joe roll the dice with Chavez last night to try to get a spark.  If Verlander is rolling and the offense is sputtering again in this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see him give Jesus an at-bat to try light that same spark. 

3) Bullpen Hierarchies

Perhaps the lone good thing to come out of yesterday's late innings was the fact that both Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde had to work relatively hard to get through their innings.  23 in 2 innings was efficient for Benoit, but I'd be surprised if he was available for more than 1, and it took Valverde 34 to navigate his way through the 9th inning.  If their availability is limited, the next guy in line is Al Albuquerque, who needed all of 2 pitches to blow the game out of reach in Game 1.  Jim Leyland might have to be careful/creative to manage his 'pen if Verlander doesn't give him 7 or 8, while Joe theoretically has his Big 3 each available for more than 3 outs if needed (assuming he doesn't just decide to use Ayala again).  While they're counting on him to deliver tonight, the Yankees don't have to lean on CC quite as much as Detroit will on Verlander tonight. 

Player to Watch: Verlander

Because of the above reason, Verlander will be the key to tonight's game.  If he's got the adrenaline in check early and can work through the first couple innings without throwing 60+ pitches, he puts himself in a good position to go the distance and his team in a better position to win.  If the Yankees can work counts and foul off pitches against him like they have all season, the advantage he provides becomes negated and things swing New York's way heading into the late innings.  If there are any Cy Young voters out there tonight who still aren't sold on Verlander, this is his chance to end those doubts (and don't even try to argue that postseason doesn't mean anything for that.  You and I both know better).

The Tigers got the split they were looking for in New York and now have the homefield advantage in a best-of-3.  They can swing the momentum even further in their favor tonight, and they've got the guy they would want on the mound to lead them.  But the Yanks are countering with their hoss and tonight should be the all-time ALDS pitching matchup we were hoping to get in Game 1.  It's Verlander vs. CC, ace vs. ace, strength vs. strength, and fire vs. fire.