If you haven't figured it out already, we're ankle deep in the official AB4AR season preview, and we're not even close to complete. Here's a look at what's coming up over the next week plus to prep for Opening Day on March 31st.
- 3/22- Knowns/Unknowns- The Bullpen
- 3/23- Knowns/Unknowns- The Bench
- 3/24- 2011 Season Preview- The Lineup
- 3/25- 2011 Season Preview- The Rotation
- 3/28- 2011 Season Preview- The Bullpen
- 3/29- 2011 Season Preview- The Bench
- 3/30- AB4AR's 10 Fearless Predictions for the 2011 Season
And if you're all really good and eat your vegetables, there might even be a live blog for the Opening Day. I don't know how I'm going to do it from the office, but I'm sure I can figure out a way. In any case, that's the plan to get everybody as ready as they can be for the 2011 Yankee Regular Season. If you miss out on any of this, your loss.
Monday, March 21, 2011
AB4AR 2011 Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Rotation)
(Who else will be in this picture come March 31?)
Next up in the AB4AR "Know/Don't Know" series is the rotation, the group on the roster with the most questions and unknowns surrounding it. But hey, at least 60% of the rotation is already set. Right?
/looks around for nods of agreement
CC Sabathia
What We Know: He came into camp this year in better shape.
Whether it was 25 pounds, 20 pounds, or 5 pounds, there's no doubting that CC put more emphasis on physical fitness this offseason after his knee surgery. He's the rotation's horse, he knows it, and he's trying to do everything he can to stay whole and stay healthy in 2011.
What We Don't Know: If the Yankees have a plan for him to limit his work this year.
It might not be a bad idea considering the workload Carsten has accumulated over the last 4 seasons and the fact that he is coming off surgery. A rough pitch/innings count early in the season or in games where the Yankees are way ahead would be a good idea to keep him fresh and ready for the stretch run and the postseason. But then again, these are the Yankees and nothing is more important than winning, and CC on the mound always gives them a better chance of winning.
A.J. Burnett
What We Know: He's the #2 starter.
Joe made it official this weekend. Misguided or not, he has faith in A.J. after what he's seen so far in ST and he's showing confidence in A.J.'s ability to rebound from his horrific 2010 by coming out early and announcing him as the starter behind CC.
What We Don't Know: Will his offseason work with Larry Rothschild will fix him?
A.J. has talked and worked with Rothschild almost since he was announced as the new Yankee pitching coach, and the results so far have been positive. A.J.'s new mechanics and where he's standing on the mound seem to be working, and his changeup is developing into a reliable pitch. But when the tough times come, how will A.J. handle them? Can he keep repeating his delivery mechanics after he throws a few bad pitches? Can he shake it off and re-focus on the next batter? Because that's what's going to make the difference for him between success and failure in 2011.
Phil Hughes
What We Know: The kid gloves come off this year.
No innings limitations, no lower spot in the order, no excuses. After an All-Star 2010, Phil is going to be counted on to be the anchor of the rotation that Andy Pettitte had been the past few seasons. He will fill an extremely important role as the 3rd starter in the rotation, expected to provide stability and high-quality innings between the sketchy A.J. and potentially shaky back end.
What We Don't Know: How much will he use the changeup in 2011?
People raved about it in camp last year, and then it disappeared once the regular season started. By the time we got to the end of the year, when he needed it, he didn't have it. Hughes has put more time into improving the changeup this spring as well, but the true test is whether or not he can add it to his repertoire and implement it effectively in games.
4th Starter
What We Know: The team needs one.
Duh.
What We Don't Know: Who it will be.
The early leader in the clubhouse is Ivan Nova after his sterling 6-inning performance last week. But he still hasn't locked it down and will probably need another solid start to give Joe enough confidence to declare the job his.
5th Starter
What We Know: See 4th Starter.
What We Know: Ditto.
Favorite- Freddy Garcia, shaky recent outings aside. Backup- Bartolo Colon, who the team seems pretty happy with. Darkhorse(s)- Andrew Brackman, Manny Banuelos. There's almost no chance either one of them will get the job, but they have been impressive and the Yankees could be forced to scramble if either Garcia or Colon gets hurt in the last couple weeks.
AB4AR 2011 Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Outfield)
(Mind the gaps, gentlemen.)
The first of a two-part known/unknown preview to come your way today, this one involving the outfield. If you missed the first part over the weekend, don't fret. It's right here. The things I do for you people. All caught up? Good. Onward and upward.
LF- Brett Gardner
What We Know: He can be an everyday player.
Gardner has almost as many questions surrounding him going into last season as the back end of the rotation does this year, and he more than held his own in the field and in the lineup as the everyday LF. A .277/.383/.379 tripleslash and a 106 OPS+ to go alone with 47 SB and solid defense is pretty damn respectable. And those numbers would have been better were it not for the heater he took off the wrist in the summer that sapped what little power he has in his swing.
What We Don't Know: Can he take the next step?
I'm a firm believer that Gardner can develop into a poor man's Ichiro if he stays healthy, keeps working, and develops a little more pop to his swing, and have said as much on this blog before. He was hitting at an All-Star level before the HBP on the wrist last summer. But there are many who think Gardner outperformed his true talent last season and will regress this year. Gardy's got some work to do to silence the doubters.
CF- Curtis Granderson
What We Know: Last year was a disappointment.
For him and for all the fans, who were hoping for a version of C-Grand similar to the 2007-2008 model. Instead, we got treated to a watered-down version of what he was during his last year in Detroit. It all came to a head when Granderson was taken out of the lineup for 2 days to revamp his swing with Kevin Long. The results of that work were noticeable, as Grandy finished the year looking much better at the plate, though still not good enough to make up for the early season struggles.
What We Don't Know: Whether he's truly turned the corner.
His hot finish to the 2010 regular season carried over to the playoffs, where C-Grand was one of the few Yankees who actually swung the bat well. He has looked good so far in ST this year, but will need to carry that over to the regular season and show some consistency with his new hitting approach to really prove he's worth the trade the Yankees made for him.
RF- Nick Swisher
What We Know: He has been reborn in New York.
It's obvious by now that Swish was drowning in Chicago and New York was his life preserver. He's taken to the city and fans like a duck to water, he's added some much needed energy and looseness to the traditionally stuffy Yankee clubhouse, and he's had the 2 best years of his career in the Bronx, including a title in '09 and his first ASG appearance in '10. Goofy as he is, Swish fits into the fabric of the team and the organization perfectly.
What We Don't Know: How much longer he'll be a Yankee.
I can't see any reason why the Yankees wouldn't bring him back, but Swish does have a $12 mil team option for 2012 that could become questionable if he regresses a bit this season. He will turn 30 this year, and the Yankees certainly aren't interested in handing out a Jayson Werth-style contract to him. But if Swish continues on the production trail he has blazed over the past 2 years, the Yankees will most likely offer him some kind of new deal.
LF- Brett Gardner
What We Know: He can be an everyday player.
Gardner has almost as many questions surrounding him going into last season as the back end of the rotation does this year, and he more than held his own in the field and in the lineup as the everyday LF. A .277/.383/.379 tripleslash and a 106 OPS+ to go alone with 47 SB and solid defense is pretty damn respectable. And those numbers would have been better were it not for the heater he took off the wrist in the summer that sapped what little power he has in his swing.
What We Don't Know: Can he take the next step?
I'm a firm believer that Gardner can develop into a poor man's Ichiro if he stays healthy, keeps working, and develops a little more pop to his swing, and have said as much on this blog before. He was hitting at an All-Star level before the HBP on the wrist last summer. But there are many who think Gardner outperformed his true talent last season and will regress this year. Gardy's got some work to do to silence the doubters.
CF- Curtis Granderson
What We Know: Last year was a disappointment.
For him and for all the fans, who were hoping for a version of C-Grand similar to the 2007-2008 model. Instead, we got treated to a watered-down version of what he was during his last year in Detroit. It all came to a head when Granderson was taken out of the lineup for 2 days to revamp his swing with Kevin Long. The results of that work were noticeable, as Grandy finished the year looking much better at the plate, though still not good enough to make up for the early season struggles.
What We Don't Know: Whether he's truly turned the corner.
His hot finish to the 2010 regular season carried over to the playoffs, where C-Grand was one of the few Yankees who actually swung the bat well. He has looked good so far in ST this year, but will need to carry that over to the regular season and show some consistency with his new hitting approach to really prove he's worth the trade the Yankees made for him.
RF- Nick Swisher
What We Know: He has been reborn in New York.
It's obvious by now that Swish was drowning in Chicago and New York was his life preserver. He's taken to the city and fans like a duck to water, he's added some much needed energy and looseness to the traditionally stuffy Yankee clubhouse, and he's had the 2 best years of his career in the Bronx, including a title in '09 and his first ASG appearance in '10. Goofy as he is, Swish fits into the fabric of the team and the organization perfectly.
What We Don't Know: How much longer he'll be a Yankee.
I can't see any reason why the Yankees wouldn't bring him back, but Swish does have a $12 mil team option for 2012 that could become questionable if he regresses a bit this season. He will turn 30 this year, and the Yankees certainly aren't interested in handing out a Jayson Werth-style contract to him. But if Swish continues on the production trail he has blazed over the past 2 years, the Yankees will most likely offer him some kind of new deal.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
The Horse Keeps On Galloping
Screw the unimportance of Spring Training stats. Screw conventional wisdom. Screw basic baseball logic. Screw everything. The A-Horse is flat out crushing the holy hell out of the ball this spring, he's been doing it since the day he stepped foot on the team facility in Tampa, and he's well on his way to having a monster rebound season in 2011. Consider these facts:
- He has 16 hits in 37 ST at-bats.
- 11 of those 16 hits have been for extra bases (6 2B, 5 HR).
- He has at least 1 hit in each of the 13 ST games in which he has played.
- He's scored 8 runs, driven in 11, and played damn good defense on the hot corner.
- His tripleslash for the spring? .432/.475/1.000
- He's already being talked about as the early odds-on favorite to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby.
Alright, so maybe I made that last one up. But that doesn't change the fact that this is the best A-Horse we've seen, both physically and from a baseball standpoint, in a few years. His hip is healthy, he's in great shape, his swing looks immaculate, and he's set to hit the ground running on March 31, instead of still nursing injuries or trying to find his balance at the plate like he has been the last couple of years. We can all get excited about the likes of Cano, Jesus Montero, and ManBan, but don't sleep on A-Rod. The dude still has some serious tread on the tire.
- He has 16 hits in 37 ST at-bats.
- 11 of those 16 hits have been for extra bases (6 2B, 5 HR).
- He has at least 1 hit in each of the 13 ST games in which he has played.
- He's scored 8 runs, driven in 11, and played damn good defense on the hot corner.
- His tripleslash for the spring? .432/.475/1.000
- He's already being talked about as the early odds-on favorite to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby.
Alright, so maybe I made that last one up. But that doesn't change the fact that this is the best A-Horse we've seen, both physically and from a baseball standpoint, in a few years. His hip is healthy, he's in great shape, his swing looks immaculate, and he's set to hit the ground running on March 31, instead of still nursing injuries or trying to find his balance at the plate like he has been the last couple of years. We can all get excited about the likes of Cano, Jesus Montero, and ManBan, but don't sleep on A-Rod. The dude still has some serious tread on the tire.
Joe Names A.J. #2 Starter
Well we can all stop speculating about whether Phil Hughes deserves the #2 spot in the rotation. Joe made it official yesterday, announcing after the game that A.J. will be the #2 starter in the rotation and Phil will take the #3 spot.
“That’s what we brought A.J. here to do,” Girardi said. “He struggled last year, but we believe he’s going to be back.” (via LoHud)
So what's the bigger deal here? A.J. getting the spot behind CC or Phil getting the spot behind A.J.? On the surface, this looks like an easy situation to figure out. A.J. is more experienced than Phil, and when he's on his fastball-curveball combo plays up to the type of stuff you want a top-of-the-rotation starter to have. Phil is still learning to master his offspeed stuff, especially his changeup, and really needs to lock down that reliable 3rd pitch before he can be considered a true top shelf starter.
But then consider how awful A.J. was last year and how important that 3rd starter spot became behind him. That spot was taken by Andy Pettitte, and between A.J.'s struggles and Javy Vazquez's equally disappointing results in the 4-spot, that 3rd spot in the rotation became very important. The Yankees were always confident in CC at the top, but if they lost a game in his start and then A.J came out and bombed the next day, the 3rd starter was the stopper of the rotation, somebody Joe could turn to for a big outing if and when the team needed a win, and before he got injured Andy performed that role for the team incredibly well in 2010. Now with Andy gone, that role gets passed on to Phil in the 3-spot.
So does Joe giving A.J. the 2-spot and Phil the 3 show that Joe has seen enough good stuff from A.J. this spring to make him feel confident in A.J.? Or does Joe have more confidence in Phil to be able to step up in a pinch and deliver a 7-8-inning, 1-2-run gem after a rough couple of games than he does in A.J.? Either way, each guy now knows where he falls in the 2011 rotation and we can focus the rest of our energy on the 4th and 5th starter spots from here on out.
“That’s what we brought A.J. here to do,” Girardi said. “He struggled last year, but we believe he’s going to be back.” (via LoHud)
So what's the bigger deal here? A.J. getting the spot behind CC or Phil getting the spot behind A.J.? On the surface, this looks like an easy situation to figure out. A.J. is more experienced than Phil, and when he's on his fastball-curveball combo plays up to the type of stuff you want a top-of-the-rotation starter to have. Phil is still learning to master his offspeed stuff, especially his changeup, and really needs to lock down that reliable 3rd pitch before he can be considered a true top shelf starter.
But then consider how awful A.J. was last year and how important that 3rd starter spot became behind him. That spot was taken by Andy Pettitte, and between A.J.'s struggles and Javy Vazquez's equally disappointing results in the 4-spot, that 3rd spot in the rotation became very important. The Yankees were always confident in CC at the top, but if they lost a game in his start and then A.J came out and bombed the next day, the 3rd starter was the stopper of the rotation, somebody Joe could turn to for a big outing if and when the team needed a win, and before he got injured Andy performed that role for the team incredibly well in 2010. Now with Andy gone, that role gets passed on to Phil in the 3-spot.
So does Joe giving A.J. the 2-spot and Phil the 3 show that Joe has seen enough good stuff from A.J. this spring to make him feel confident in A.J.? Or does Joe have more confidence in Phil to be able to step up in a pinch and deliver a 7-8-inning, 1-2-run gem after a rough couple of games than he does in A.J.? Either way, each guy now knows where he falls in the 2011 rotation and we can focus the rest of our energy on the 4th and 5th starter spots from here on out.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
AB4AR 2011 Season Preview: What We Know & What We Don't Know (The Infield)
(It ain't quite ready yet, but soon... )
We're less than 2 weeks away from Opening Day, so it's time for AB4AR to get its season preview on. Over the next 12 days, we'll take a look at every part of the team from every angle, culminating in the official 2011 season preview the week leading up to Yanks-Tigers on March 31st. For starters, let's ease into the 2011 season by taking a quick look at what we know and don't know about the guys who will man the inner area of the diamond this year.
C- Russell Martin
What We Know: He can still play.
Martin has certainly shown that he still has the skills to be an elite catcher. He has hit the ball well this spring, showing some pop in the bat, and he's also flashed some leather behind the plate and ran the bases well. When he's clicking on all cylinders, Martin is easily one of the 5 best all-around catchers in the game.
What We Don't Know: How long will he stay healthy?
The big issue with Martin over the last few seasons has been how long all his cylinders stay functioning. The Yanks have eased him into ST to get him to 100% physically, but once the season kicks in and he's catching 5+ days a week, will his body hold up?
1B- Mark Teixeira
What We Know- He put in a lot of offseason hitting work.
So far it seems to be helping, as Teix has swung the bat well in Spring Training. He's also shown no signs of lingering injury from all the dings he had at the end of 2010.
What We Don't Know- Will that extra work help him get off to a good start?
Teix's offseason swing work was inspired by his historically cold starts to the regular season, a tradition that was incredibly bad in 2010, even by Teix's slow start standards. Whether the extra work over the winter will help cure this early-spring ailment remains to be seen.
2B- Robinson Cano
What We Know- He has started to become a leader.
Cano has gone from being benched in '08 because of lack of effort and perceived lack of work ethic to becoming one of the example setters for guys in 2011. He had Frankie Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez work out with him over the offseason and seems to be setting himself up to assume a leadership role when the Jeters and Posadas of the world decide to hang 'em up.
What We Don't Know- Was 2010 a career year for Cano?
Projections for 2011 have Cano's numbers down across the board from his 2010 campaign, mainly because they factor in his down year in '08. But some baseball "experts" also expect Cano's numbers to dip in 2011. I am not one of those people and expect Cano to outperform his 2010 numbers, but only time will tell.
3B- Alex Rodriguez
What We Know- A-Rod came into camp in great shape.
The Horse looked lean and mean when he arrive in Tampa this year for Spring Training, and so far his offseason workout program has paid dividends. He looks smooth and comfortable in the field, and his power is back in his bat as he has his swing all but locked in.
What We Don't Know- How that shape will hold up over 162 games.
Is the new and improved A-Rod designed to fight off the aches and pains that have hindered him over the last few seasons and allow him to put up MVP-caliber numbers? Or is it merely masking the fact that he's an older player who is going to break down physically this year at some point?
SS- Derek Jeter
What We Know- Jeter has finally committed to altering his swing.
He worked with Dr. Long at the end of the 2010 season and saw some better results. Before 2011, Jeter worked even more with Long on eliminating his leg kick and speeding up his swing. While he's still getting used to the new mechanics, he has shown some more pop in his bat in ST.
What We Don't Know- Will the new mechanics help him bounce back?
The new swing is designed to speed up Jeter's bat and allow him to get back to his trademark inside-out swing to right field, but can it help him win the battle over Father Time over the whole season or will pitchers figure out a new way to exploit Jeter's deteriorating bat speed and get him out consistently?
Friday, March 18, 2011
Post-St. Patty's Day Slacker Post
A bunch of bullpen pitchers are dinged up. Freddy Garcia sucked his last time out. Ivan Nova didn't. A.J. was pretty awful in his outing today. Now nobody thinks Jesus can catch again. Joe Torre is participating in Old Timers' Day this year. Rafael Soriano is a baby and doesn't want to pitch against any AL East opponents until the season starts. And The Horse is still hitting the cover off the ball.
That pretty much covers everything, right? Good. Here's Mastodon's "The Czar." Surprising as this may be, the song is actually NOT about A-Rod. I know, I didn't believe it either when I first found out.
That pretty much covers everything, right? Good. Here's Mastodon's "The Czar." Surprising as this may be, the song is actually NOT about A-Rod. I know, I didn't believe it either when I first found out.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Gardy Gets A Leadoff Audition Tonight
Tonight's lineup, via LoHud:
1) Gardner LF
2) Jeter SS
3) Teixeira 1B
4) Rodriguez 3B
5) Cano 2B
6) Swisher RF
7) Posada DH
8) Granderson CF
9) Montero C
SP) Hughes RHP
No need to get too excited as it's a sure thing that Jeter will be manning the top spot once the season starts, even if Gardner goes 3-3 with a walk, 3 runs scored, and 2 SB tonight. But it's good to see Joe experimenting early and getting himself some firsthand information on what a Gardner-Jeter top of the order looks like should he need to re-examine the situation later in the year.
I still like the idea of using C-Grand in the 2-spot this year. His combination of speed and power could be a great dual-threat table setting option for Teix, A-Rod, and Cano. And he's less of a groundball hitter than Jeter, which reduces the risk of hitting into double plays. But hey, that's just me.
1) Gardner LF
2) Jeter SS
3) Teixeira 1B
4) Rodriguez 3B
5) Cano 2B
6) Swisher RF
7) Posada DH
8) Granderson CF
9) Montero C
SP) Hughes RHP
No need to get too excited as it's a sure thing that Jeter will be manning the top spot once the season starts, even if Gardner goes 3-3 with a walk, 3 runs scored, and 2 SB tonight. But it's good to see Joe experimenting early and getting himself some firsthand information on what a Gardner-Jeter top of the order looks like should he need to re-examine the situation later in the year.
I still like the idea of using C-Grand in the 2-spot this year. His combination of speed and power could be a great dual-threat table setting option for Teix, A-Rod, and Cano. And he's less of a groundball hitter than Jeter, which reduces the risk of hitting into double plays. But hey, that's just me.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Just When You Thought It Couldn't Get Any Worse For Mets Fans
I don't care how old this is, I don't care how long it's been around, and I don't care if I'm the last person in the world who knows about it. This sign is new to me and it is absolutely hilarious.
I mean, Giants and Jets makes sense. The Knicks are back in a way big way so they obviously go above the Mets. And the Rangers and Yankees are no-brainers. But when you're getting dropped below the New York Islanders, that's when you know you're hovering dangerously above rock bottom as a franchise. The Islanders aren't even the ugly stepchild of New York sports teams. They're more like the aborted fetus of New York sports teams. They're a complete joke. And this sign ranks them above the Mets. Simply brilliant.
It's like the marketing person at Manhattan Mini Storage designed this sign with me in mind. I almost feel like I owe it to them to buy a storage cell and pay for it, even if I don't ever put anything in it, to thank them for this work of art.
Tip of the cap to you, Manhattan Mini Storage. Free AB4AR t-shirt coming your way if I ever get around to designing one.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Dan Shaughnessy Should Probably Stop Talking
At AB4AR, the "... Should Probably Stop Talking" series is usually reserved for the two silly gentlemen who man the ESPNNY Yankee blog. But the door is always open to other sports writers willing to join the club and get FJ'd right in their Ms, so who better to welcome to the SPST fraternity than Dan Shaughnessy, noted Fraud Sawx rumor monger and unabashed Boston sports homer. Shaughnessy is the classic example of a lazy sportswriter who uses generalities and over-dramatized opinions based on nothing to create false controversy amongst the population of the idiotic and ignorant sports fan, and this latest attempt to drag something important out of a meaningless Yanks-Sawx ST game is nothing short of brilliant in its inanity. Without further ado, I give you, Dan Shaughnessy.
"It felt like Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Except for the fact that there were only 7,859 fans and the starting pitchers were Alfredo Aceves and 20-year-old Manny Banuelos."
So in reality, it felt nothing like Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. Unless you're an idiot who thinks Spring Training games, even Yanks-Sawx ones, actually matter.
"But this was not your typical spring training game. It was Red Sox-Yankees, the mastodons of the majors, duking it out for Grapefruit League supremacy last night."
"Mastodons of the majors," "duking it out," "supremacy." I can feel my heartbeat starting to race just reading that graphic battle imagery! Oh no, wait. I can't. Because there were no mastodons, and nobody was duking it out for anything. The Yankees only had 3 regulars in the lineup. And nobody gives a crap about Grapefruit League supremacy.
And seriously, "mastodons of the majors"? At what point does comparing baseball players to extinct prehistoric elephants seem like a good idea for a sports column?
"In the spirit of this hakuna matata spring of 2011, the Sox prevailed, 2-1. Naturally."
Yes, of course. Using the life lessons handed down by these two animated Disney characters, the Red Sox managed to squeak out a one-run Spring Training win against a team comprised of roughly 20% of players who will actually be on the Yankees' Opening Day roster, thus setting the tone for what will surely be a 160-2 season for Boston. What isn't natural about that?
ManBan Passes The Test
(Courtesy of The AP)
I know that Mitre had a sore oblique yesterday so he wasn't going to pitch, and I know Banuelos was scheduled to pitch yesterday regardless, but let's be honest, yesterday was a test for Manny against the Red Sox. It was a measuring stick for the Yankees to compare his sparkling results so far to his results in a "pressure" situation against some of the best hitters in the American League. And in my opinion, ManBan passed the test with flying colors.
The final line doesn't look all that impressive: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 R, 2 K, 53 pitches, 28 for strikes. But the true value in Banuelos' outing was shown in his ability to work through the problems he created for himself last night. He was obviously a little juiced up after finding out he was going to face the Sawx on short notice, and his trademark command wasn't there in his 2+ innings of work. He got into a lot of deep counts and worked the bases loaded in the 2nd inning. But after that, Banuelos bore down and made pitches to get himself out of the inning unscathed with back-to-back groundouts. And then he had the stones to throw a 3-2 changeup to Kevin Youkilis to get the K on his last pitch of the night. That's pretty damn impressive in its own right, no matter how old a pitcher is.
His stuff wasn't as sharp as we've seen, nor was his command. He wasn't dominating in any sense of the word. But for a 20-year-old facing the everyday Boston Red Sox lineup, Banuelos was very impressive. His ability to stay composed and make pitches when he had to is something rare in someone so young, especially when you consider the fact that the Yankees have a 34-year-old in their rotation who STILL can't do that on a consistent basis.
Nothing about Manny's outing last night will change the Yankees' plan for him this year, and it shouldn't. But make no mistake, this was more than just a pitcher subbing in for someone because of injury. This was the Yankees taking the ST arm floaties of a Pirates split-squad team off of Manny and tossing him into the deep end of the talent pool to see how he could handle it. And he didn't just float, he kicked and paddled and made his way from one side of the pool to the other. It doesn't mean much for the current rotation, but it certainly made the future look a little brighter.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Mo Makes His Spring Debut Today
Mo took the hill for the first time in a game situation today for the Yanks. How did his outing go, you ask?
"Rivera threw 12 pitches today. He struck out the side, then he went for a run." (via LoHud)
Oh, ok. No big deal. Just the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball coming out and being the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball. Ho hum. Exit light, enter night, blah, blah, blah, off to Never Never Land.
"Rivera threw 12 pitches today. He struck out the side, then he went for a run." (via LoHud)
Oh, ok. No big deal. Just the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball coming out and being the greatest relief pitcher in the history of baseball. Ho hum. Exit light, enter night, blah, blah, blah, off to Never Never Land.
(Photo used courtesy of Leather Penguin)
Saturday, March 12, 2011
I Don't Even Know What To Think About This Picture
(Photo courtesy of Barstool Boston)
On the one hand, this guy gets a major +1 for wearing a Yankee jersey into Boston and rocking the crap out of it at a major Boston sporting event (can't believe I'm saying that about a BU basketball game).
On the other hand, he's got the BU face paint going, so that's a negative. And he's wearing a Florida Marlins hat. What is that about, dude? Are you subliminally saying you wish the old school, younger A.J. Burnett was pitching for the Yanks? Are you secretly a Josh Beckett fan? WHAT THE HELL IS YOUR DEAL?!?!
All in all it balances out to an even 0 on the awesomeness scale. As much as I'd love to tip my cap to this guy for rocking the pinstripes, the face paint and Marlins hat just don't allow me to do it. Better luck next time, kid. Thanks for playing.
(AB4AR is getting into the March Madness spirit. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.)
Everybody Loves Them Some ManBan (But Is That A Good Thing?)
(Wook at dat wittle baby face!)
It's no secret to anybody who follows the Yankees regularly that Manny Banuelos has been impressive so far in ST. The secret has continued to come out more in the mainstream this week, first when Mo, The Godfather of pitching, had this to say about ManBan:
“I like everything about him. The makeup and how he keeps his composure. I notice situations and how you react in situations. Where you make your pitches in tough situations, where you spot your pitches, he has the ability to do that.”
When Mariano Rivera is commenting on your makeup and your composure, you can be pretty sure you've got a bright future ahead of you.
And then there was this bit from Keith Law's ESPN chat yesterday, when he was asked about ManBan's arrival in the Majors by a reader:
"Midyear? I feel like this is Heyward/Atlanta all over again, where you might let the best interests of the club in the current season trump long-term considerations – and it’s not like Banuelos has a ton of things to work on in the minors. If they gave him a rotation spot now I wouldn’t argue."
Another sterling review from one of the best in his particular field, but there is much more to consider in Law's response. While it's true that Banuelos, even as young and inexperienced as he is, could be the best option for the 5th spot in the rotation this year, the part about trumping long-term considerations is where I think this possibility ends. The Yankees have gotten burned big time in the past rushing guys up to the Majors to help the team and then watching their career paths derail and crash and burn (see: Chamberlain, Joba).
Ever since the Jobacle, the Yankees have been very good about keeping their young pitching prospects on a strict plan to build up arm strength and experience in the Minors. That plan has rewarded the organization by giving them an abundance of legit Major League-potential guys on the cusp of making their debuts. There is no point in abandoning that plan for one guy now, even somebody as potentially great as Banuelos, when it doesn't guarantee a World Series championship, and when we're talking about one player, even a pitcher, that never guarantees a title in baseball. The Yankees have built up the rest of their roster around their weak bullpen to make up for that and allow them to not abandon the plan for Manny and the rest of the young guys. The smart move is to keep on that path.
Now Keith Law is a big ManBan fan, and that's fine. I'm a card-carrying member of that club as well. But the Heyward-Braves comparison and saying that Banuelos has nothing to learn in the Minors are 2 unfair statements to make. First off, comparing a young pitcher to a young outfielder is simply ignorant. Outfielders play every day, using a completely different set of skills than pitchers. Starting pitchers focus on one aspect of the game and employ that aspect once every 4 or 5 days. It could be true that an OF as talented as Heyward could have nothing left to gain by playing in the Minors, but there is always something a pitcher can work on or refine to prepare himself for the next level.
And even it were true that Banuelos had mastered the art of pitching already in Double-A, there's the innings limitation thing to remember. It would be one thing if ManBan had thrown 140-150 innings last year in the Minors, but the reality is that those numbers are going to be what his ceiling is this year. If a team can't let a guy lose and be confident that he can handle a full workload in the Majors, then it makes more sense to keep in the Minors, where he can work on his skills, build up his arm strength, and not have that innings limit be a hindrance to his team's success.
Is Manny Banuelos a big-time prospect? Hell yes he is. Are people starting to open their eyes to just how good he is? It certainly appears so. But that doesn't mean it's time to get crazy about where he should pitch this year, regardless of the situation at the back end of the Yankee rotation. The Yankees are handling ManBan the right way and should not change their plans at all.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Rough Day For Nova
It was a struggle out there on the hill today for Ivan Nova, who struggled with his fastball and paid for it.
While it's no major cause for concern, as Nova knew that he couldn't get the ball down in the zone when he was interviewed after the game, it does point to what Nova is going to have to do this year to be successful. His biggest strength is his ability to locate his fastball down in the zone and force a lot of groundballs. If he can do that, he can be successful. When he can't, he's going to get hit.
So while this doesn't extradite him from the rotation by any means, it does give us all a window into what is going to drive Nova's success or lack of this season. And it also gives me an opportunity to bring back Nova the Terrible for the first time in 2011.
So I guess I have to take the bad with the good when Nova doesn't have his fastball command.
While it's no major cause for concern, as Nova knew that he couldn't get the ball down in the zone when he was interviewed after the game, it does point to what Nova is going to have to do this year to be successful. His biggest strength is his ability to locate his fastball down in the zone and force a lot of groundballs. If he can do that, he can be successful. When he can't, he's going to get hit.
So while this doesn't extradite him from the rotation by any means, it does give us all a window into what is going to drive Nova's success or lack of this season. And it also gives me an opportunity to bring back Nova the Terrible for the first time in 2011.
So I guess I have to take the bad with the good when Nova doesn't have his fastball command.
Updating The Roster Battles
("We're not letting Jorge catch, right?" Courtesy of The AP)
Spring Training is in its 3rd week now, and already it looks like there are major changes in terms of front runners for some of the last roster spots based on performance over these first couple weeks. Nothing is set in stone, of course, and there is still time for guys to get hot, get cold, or get hurt, and change the landscape some more. Here's a quick look at how the favorites for some of these spots have changed over the last month.
Back of the Rotation
Prior to ST: 4th Starter- Ivan Nova, 5th Starter- Sergio Mitre
Today: 4th Starter- Freddy Garcia, 5th Starter- Nova
Not a major change for Nova, who still has to be considered a favorite to get a rotation spot after working 2 scoreless outings so far. But Freddy Garcia has drawn praise from his 5 innings of ST work (deserved or not), mainly due to his improved fastball velocity and demeanor he has displayed on the mound, which has scouts saying he's got more than enough guile to handle pitching in the Bronx. Garcia can't afford to let off the gas, however, as every other potential rotation candidate has also pitched well, and because he is still in camp on nothing more than a non-guaranteed MiL deal.
Mitre doesn't appear to be a rotation option anymore and has assumed the pole position in the race for long man out of the 'pen.
Catcher
Prior to ST: Starter- Jesus Montero, Backup- Francisco Cervelli
Today: Starter- Russell Martin, Backup- Jesus Montero
Despite saying over the winter that they had every intention of letting The Jesus come into camp this spring and win the job, the Yankees made the decision to bring in some more veteran experience and signed oft-injured Russell Martin to a team-friendly deal. So far that seems to have worked out well, as Martin has held up physically behind the plate while still showcasing a solid all-around defensive game in his few outings, shown some pop in his bat, and even tested his knee by stealing a few bases.
Montero hasn't lit the world on fire with his bat yet, but has drawn praise from his coaches and pitchers for his improved receiving skills behind the plate, and has also helped to ease concerns about his ability to slow down the opponents' running game by throwing out a few runners. Montero will, in all likelihood, end up starting the season on the 25-man because of Frankie' bad luck injury. What the team decides to do with him once Cervelli is healthy again will be determined by how Montero adjusts to the Major League game.
3rd & 4th Bench Spots
Prior to ST: Ramiro Pena & Eduardo Nunez
Today: Nunez & Eric Chavez
The PeNunez infield combo was slated into the bench spots prior to ST starting mainly because they were the guys who had been there before. But after the Yankees brought in Ronnie Belliard and Eric Chavez, the certainty to those spots decreased and Pena and Nunez have both had to earn their keep. Nunez has shined with the bat so far, hitting .375/.400/.542 in 24 at-bats, while Pena has put up .190s across the board in 21 ABs. You can't put a lot of weight into ST stats, but the fact that Nunez's bat is far superior to Pena's while his defense is serviceable should give him the leg up in the utility infielder race.
Chavez, who came in with low expectations after being ravaged by injuries the last few seasons, seems to have found the fountain of youth down in Tampa this spring, with 9 hits in 19 ABs and a couple walks. He is still a huge health risk, but he looks good so far, and the fact that he is a veteran who fits the Yankee mold of patience at the plate and can still back up at third or first if needed gives him a clear cut advantage over the Penas, Brandon Lairds, and Jorge Vazquezs of the world. As long as he doesn't get hurt, the last bench spot will be Chavez's without a doubt.
The rest of the roster is all but set in stone, so these will continue to be the hottest battles in camp. Guys have a little less than 3 weeks before the start of the regular season. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
New Nickname Possibilities For Joe
It should be common knowledge to anyone familiar with the Yankees that Joe Girardi isn't exactly Chris Berman when it comes to nicknames for his guys. Basically he just takes a shortened version of either the player's first or last name and adds a "y" or "ie" to it. Robinson Cano is "Robby," Jorge Posada is "Jorgie," Brett Gardner is "Gardy," you get the picture.
And while not all the new guys in camp this year, old or young, are going to end up sticking with the team, they at least present Joe with some better options that are more fitting to his nickname style than the current crop of returning players. For instance, Dellin Betances could be "Delly" or "Betty." Andrew Brackman could become "Bracky." Eric Chavez becomes "Chavy."
But those aren't even the good ones. Imagine Joe sitting down for a post game press conference, talking about Ronnie Belliard's key stop at 3rd late in the game to start an inning-ending double play and preserve the lead. How great would it be to hear him say "Yeah, Belly made a great play for us there." Or imagine him commenting on Austin Romine's solid work behind the plate by saying "Romey was big for us today."
My personal favorite would be what he SHOULD be calling Jesus Montero instead of "Monty." Wrong name, Joe. Use the first name, shorten that up, throw a little street flava into it and call him "Jeezy." You can't tell me that's not brilliant. Joe drops that a few times in interviews, suddenly it catches on in The Stadium, and Jesus is walking out for every at-bat to this:
That's hot right there. That would actually be the first stupid Joe nickname to become cool. And it gives Montero a stage name if he ever decides to try his hand in the hip hop industry. 2 birds, meet 1 stone.
And I didn't even need to create a sabermetric stat to prove that!
And while not all the new guys in camp this year, old or young, are going to end up sticking with the team, they at least present Joe with some better options that are more fitting to his nickname style than the current crop of returning players. For instance, Dellin Betances could be "Delly" or "Betty." Andrew Brackman could become "Bracky." Eric Chavez becomes "Chavy."
But those aren't even the good ones. Imagine Joe sitting down for a post game press conference, talking about Ronnie Belliard's key stop at 3rd late in the game to start an inning-ending double play and preserve the lead. How great would it be to hear him say "Yeah, Belly made a great play for us there." Or imagine him commenting on Austin Romine's solid work behind the plate by saying "Romey was big for us today."
My personal favorite would be what he SHOULD be calling Jesus Montero instead of "Monty." Wrong name, Joe. Use the first name, shorten that up, throw a little street flava into it and call him "Jeezy." You can't tell me that's not brilliant. Joe drops that a few times in interviews, suddenly it catches on in The Stadium, and Jesus is walking out for every at-bat to this:
That's hot right there. That would actually be the first stupid Joe nickname to become cool. And it gives Montero a stage name if he ever decides to try his hand in the hip hop industry. 2 birds, meet 1 stone.
And I didn't even need to create a sabermetric stat to prove that!
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
AB4AR Linkapalooza: "Best In The Business" Edition
It was a long day spent in front of customers and sitting in a company car, my foot hurts from playing basketball after work, and my combination of 'Shaggy from "Scooby Doo"'-style hair and mountain man beard is starting to become a hassle, so I'm just not in the mood to be creative, insightful, or clever tonight. So to fill your need for high-quality Yankee goodness, I'll just hand it over to the best posts from the upper echelon of the Yankosphere.
- EJ Fagan from TYA compares the Yankee farm system from 4 years ago to today's system and shows how much better the 2011 edition is because of the better 2nd and 3rd-tier prospects in the 2011 MiL system. Not only are they better (and by "better" I mean "waaaaaaaaay better), but there is also greater depth in the system than in 2007. That's a good thing.
- William of the always entertaining Captain's Blog, playing on the potential for 6'11" Andrew Brackman to make his Yankee debut this season, tells the tale of former Yankee Slim Love, the last Yankee to be the tallest player in baseball, who accomplished that feat in 1916. He was also the first Yankee to have a name that made him sound like one of the Cash Money Millionaires.
- Brien at IIATMS continues his series of posts destroying baseball curmudgeon Murrary Chass. Point for Brien for calling out Chass for sucking. Bonus point for bagging on old people.
- Mike Axisa of RAB, continues his tradition of being a draft guru by looking at some potential signability draft targets for the Yankees. Ahh to have money to spend on high-end talent that other teams are too scared to pay.
/raises brandy snifter and smokes expensive cigar lit with old $50 bills
- One of my favorite yearly posts is Chad Jennings of LoHud's look inside the Yankee locker room, and this year's ST edition is no exception. Is it bad that I always finish reading these posts and then think about whose lockers I would go and try to steal stuff from?
- EJ Fagan from TYA compares the Yankee farm system from 4 years ago to today's system and shows how much better the 2011 edition is because of the better 2nd and 3rd-tier prospects in the 2011 MiL system. Not only are they better (and by "better" I mean "waaaaaaaaay better), but there is also greater depth in the system than in 2007. That's a good thing.
- William of the always entertaining Captain's Blog, playing on the potential for 6'11" Andrew Brackman to make his Yankee debut this season, tells the tale of former Yankee Slim Love, the last Yankee to be the tallest player in baseball, who accomplished that feat in 1916. He was also the first Yankee to have a name that made him sound like one of the Cash Money Millionaires.
- Brien at IIATMS continues his series of posts destroying baseball curmudgeon Murrary Chass. Point for Brien for calling out Chass for sucking. Bonus point for bagging on old people.
- Mike Axisa of RAB, continues his tradition of being a draft guru by looking at some potential signability draft targets for the Yankees. Ahh to have money to spend on high-end talent that other teams are too scared to pay.
/raises brandy snifter and smokes expensive cigar lit with old $50 bills
- One of my favorite yearly posts is Chad Jennings of LoHud's look inside the Yankee locker room, and this year's ST edition is no exception. Is it bad that I always finish reading these posts and then think about whose lockers I would go and try to steal stuff from?
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Freddy Garcia Is Off To A Good ST Start. Color Me Unimpressed
(Lookin' good, Fred. Courtesy of The AP)
It was another solid no-run performance for Freduardo Garcia today, this one also of the hitless and walkless variety, as he helped strengthen his case to win one of the 'back of the rotation' spots. He was so good and so efficient, in fact, that he actually had a bullpen session after he was taken out of the game to reach his pitch count. But some points in the LoHud wrap-up of his outing seemed like they were hinting at excessive praise, and I think they warrant being put in perspective. Things such as:
"Garcia has been pitching at 88-89 mph with his fastball. There were times last season when Garcia was working at 85-86.. "
Yeah, and those times were once the season had begun and his arm had more work and more wear and tear on it and fatigue was factoring in. The guy has thrown 5 innings and a handful of bullpen sessions so far in March after 4+ months off. He's fresh. His fastball SHOULD be faster than it usually sits.
"... he said his shoulder feels stronger, and that lively fastball has made his other pitches more effective."
See previous comment. It's not note- or newsworthy that Garcia's fastball and arm strength are good right now. He hasn't pitched that much. Let's let the guy start building up some innings and multiple offspeed pitches on the arm and see where his velocity is then before we start heaping praise on him. I would also argue that 88-89 MPH hardly qualifies as "lively."
“I feel way better this year than last year in the course of the season,” Garcia said. “I think maybe I felt that way three or four games, like I feel now.”
Duh, Freddy. Duh. And the second part of that statement by Garcia solidifies the point I'm trying to make here. It's great that he feels great right now, but he only felt great for a handful of starts last year. I would expect that there is a correlation between his past history of losing velocity and arm strength as the number of starts increased, as well as a correlation between his few starts with low pitch counts so far this ST and his increased velocity. I would also argue that what happens with that velocity and arm strength as his number of starts increases this year is more important than what happens with them after 2 ST outings with limited pitch counts.
Don't get me wrong. I'm glad Garcia is having this kind of success early in camp, especially given his horrendous track record of stumbling out of the gate. I came into this season expecting only slightly more from him than I did from Colon, which was still nothing, and to see him pitch well, even in this kind of controlled ST setting, gives me a little more confidence that the Yankees could at least get a few quality innings out of him this season.
But being a realist and being logical, I can't start shredding office documents for a ticker tape parade for him because he's throwing high-80s in 5 ST innings. Let's keep monitoring Garcia and see how well the velocity and arm strength holds up as he moves forward and starts throwing more pitches before we get too excited.
The Brack Attack Makes His ST Debut Today
(Photo courtesy of The AP)
The back of the rotation could get another solid candidate, depending on how he fares today.
Winning.
Monday, March 7, 2011
In Case You Need More Proof...
... that Mariano Rivera is some kind of mystical, inhuman cyborg that destroys anything in its path and is only addicted to winning, here it is, courtesy of the World Wide Leader's "Sports Science."
Now granted this is coming from somebody who had to guess and cheat his was to Cs in the last science class he ever took, which was senior year in high school, but that's just crazy! 1600 RPM? 8 inches of lateral movement?? All from the same arm angle as his 4-seamer??? That just doesn't seem fair. And then you factor in the whole 'human eye not being able to see a ball traveling that fast in the last 10 feet before it reaches the plate' thing and I know it's just not fair. Maybe guys should be allowed to take HGH if they're going to be facing Mo on a regular basis. With the hand-eye coordination benefits it has, it only seems right to help level the playing field for these poor schlubs.
I would also like to take this opportunity to start the official AB4AR campaign to change the name of the "Magnus Effect" to the "Rivera Effect." It just seems right.
Now granted this is coming from somebody who had to guess and cheat his was to Cs in the last science class he ever took, which was senior year in high school, but that's just crazy! 1600 RPM? 8 inches of lateral movement?? All from the same arm angle as his 4-seamer??? That just doesn't seem fair. And then you factor in the whole 'human eye not being able to see a ball traveling that fast in the last 10 feet before it reaches the plate' thing and I know it's just not fair. Maybe guys should be allowed to take HGH if they're going to be facing Mo on a regular basis. With the hand-eye coordination benefits it has, it only seems right to help level the playing field for these poor schlubs.
I would also like to take this opportunity to start the official AB4AR campaign to change the name of the "Magnus Effect" to the "Rivera Effect." It just seems right.
Is The Offense Already Starting To Heat Up?
(That's a fine looking swing, Mr. Gardner. Courtesy of The AP)
You've got Brett Gardner following through with 2 hands on his swing now and making line drive contact seemingly every game. You've got Jeter putting multiple hits on the board and by all accounts looking better at the plate each game. You've got The Horse looking trim, seeing the ball well, and absolutely mashing the crap out of everything right now. You've got Cano hitting line drives, Teix looking sharper than he ever has this early, and even Russell Martin and his now 94.5738% healthy knee getting a couple of hits and stealing bases yesterday. These are all good signs, right?
Before you roll your eyes and give me the "Spring Training doesn't mean anything" speech, notice that I didn't include anybody's stats anywhere in that previous paragraph. I'm well aware that ST performance and statistics have little to no bearing on how a guy is going to play once the games start to count. But it's the actions that are happening on the field that are encouraging, especially when it's geared towards the group of guys who are trying to come back from down years and injuries.
I've long held the belief that Brett Gardner could hit for a little more power if he wanted to and said that he should be looking to drive the ball into gaps. He makes the adjustment to his swing, finishing with both hands on the bat, and suddenly there's more sting in his contact. A-Rod gets into better shape this year, drops a few pounds to lessen the load on his older body and he's hitting the ball better than I can ever remember in ST since he joined the Yanks. Teix put in more work in the offseason and he's off to a better spring start.
The point of this is not to try to prove that all these performances are going to lead to monster starts in April or monster years from these guys. The point is to recognize that many Yankee hitters are having better springs than they have in the past with the bat. They're ahead of the curve in terms of getting their timing and swing mechanics down, and that has to at least be an encouraging sign for them, their coaches, and us fans. Think about it the other way; if Teix was still rocking on 0-for right now and popping the ball up all the time, we'd be sitting here saying "Here we go again. Goddamn Teix is starting off cold." So since he ISN'T doing that this spring, that should at least give us hope that he's going to carry this over in the regular season and, at the very least, not suck as badly in April as he has before.
The Dawning Of A New Era
(No, AB4AR doesn't have hats... yet.)
If you're a regular reader of the site, you might notice a few small changes this morning. After some input and suggestions from fellow members of the Yankosphere, I finally got around the updating the site and changing the color scheme over to the road uni to hopefully make everything easier to read. I even added the link to the Facebook page! Hey, techmology!
I hope this new color scheme works for everybody and I look forward to getting any feedback, positive or negative, that my readers have. As I've said many times before, I'm a Yankee fan and a writer, not a computer programmer, design engineer, or software tech, so this is about as fancy as the design is going to get for now, at least until Google gets smart enough to buy me out and put some professionals on the job. So while you can't count on getting a site that looks like something, you can still count on getting the same low-quality, high-comedy analysis and insight that you've come to know and
P.S.- Links in posts will now show up as the bold/italicized text, so click on those in the Linkapaloozas to check out the excellent work of my blogging brethren. I'll have to make a conscious effort to stay away from that in my regular writing.
P.P.S.- Check out the damn Facebook page and "Like" it.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
On The 2012 Rotation
I'm not the type to look ahead, and I always stress the importance of focusing on the NOW in Yankee baseball, but with the way some of the young guys have pitched so far in Spring Training, I think it warrants talking about how and where they might fit in in 2012. So allow me a minute to spitball and consider the potential situation for next year's rotation.
This year's rotational situation is what it is, and despite some early success from the likes of Garcia, Colon, and Ivan Nova, I think we can all agree that no level of regular season success in 2011 is going to lead to Garcia or Colon being a part of the 2012 rotation. They are here this year to serve as Band-Aids to try to help ease the sting of losing Lee and Pettitte and as placeholders for the crop of young talent in Double and Triple-A right now, namely the Killer Bs. And there's nothing wrong with that. Betances and ManBan are going to have innings limitations this year, and after the fiasco that was trying to put Joba and Ian Kennedy in the rotation before they were ready, the Yankees are playing it safe with these guys. With the lineup they have, the deep bullpen, and CC and Hughes at the top of the rotation they are still going to be one of the best teams in baseball.
But after 2011 ends for the Yankees, the rotation again becomes a huge question mark and a huge talking point. As of today, there are only 2 guys who will definitely be under contract and in the rotation in 2012, those guys being Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to say that whether he opts out or not after this year, CC Sabathia is coming back in 2012, giving the Yanks the same 3 "definites" that they had coming into this year. But after that is where it starts to get interesting.
I figure Ivan Nova is going to get the final '11 rotation spot over Colon, barring injury of course, so he becomes the #1 candidate to fill in the #4 spot in the 2012 rotation, a candidacy that could be strengthened by an improved performance this year and him showing that he has developed his secondary pitches and learned to change things up the 3rd time through a lineup. After him, the next group of internal candidates to step in and take a spot in the 2011 rotation, due to injuries or poor performance by others, would be Hector Noesi, David Phelps, and Adam Warren. As with Nova, they would be considered to have a leg up on the the rest of the youthful competition just based on any experience gained this year. The fact that none of these 3 are considered high-ceiling prospects, however, and could be used as trade fodder this year to bring in a starter at the deadline makes their 2012 spots less of a sure thing. But if the Yankees catch lightning in a bottle with any of them, they're going to have to give serious consideration to keeping that guy around for 2012.
Which brings us to the next possibility, somebody either added at the 2011 deadline or signed in the 2011 offseason taking a spot. Guys like Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, and Roy Oswalt would be at the top of that list, and the addition of either of the first 2 by a trade probably eliminates guys from the Noesi/Phelps/Warren/D.J. Mitchell pool. So if one of them is brought in, do the Yankees sign him after 2011 and make him the #4 starter for 2012? If they don't, do they go all out for Roy Oswalt and plug him into the #2/#3 spot for 2012? Any outsider brought in ]before the start of 2012 has to be considered a favorite to also make the 2012 rotation due to the experience factor, but with age and salary concerns the Yankees could make the decision to not add payroll for an older player.
This year's rotational situation is what it is, and despite some early success from the likes of Garcia, Colon, and Ivan Nova, I think we can all agree that no level of regular season success in 2011 is going to lead to Garcia or Colon being a part of the 2012 rotation. They are here this year to serve as Band-Aids to try to help ease the sting of losing Lee and Pettitte and as placeholders for the crop of young talent in Double and Triple-A right now, namely the Killer Bs. And there's nothing wrong with that. Betances and ManBan are going to have innings limitations this year, and after the fiasco that was trying to put Joba and Ian Kennedy in the rotation before they were ready, the Yankees are playing it safe with these guys. With the lineup they have, the deep bullpen, and CC and Hughes at the top of the rotation they are still going to be one of the best teams in baseball.
But after 2011 ends for the Yankees, the rotation again becomes a huge question mark and a huge talking point. As of today, there are only 2 guys who will definitely be under contract and in the rotation in 2012, those guys being Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm going to say that whether he opts out or not after this year, CC Sabathia is coming back in 2012, giving the Yanks the same 3 "definites" that they had coming into this year. But after that is where it starts to get interesting.
I figure Ivan Nova is going to get the final '11 rotation spot over Colon, barring injury of course, so he becomes the #1 candidate to fill in the #4 spot in the 2012 rotation, a candidacy that could be strengthened by an improved performance this year and him showing that he has developed his secondary pitches and learned to change things up the 3rd time through a lineup. After him, the next group of internal candidates to step in and take a spot in the 2011 rotation, due to injuries or poor performance by others, would be Hector Noesi, David Phelps, and Adam Warren. As with Nova, they would be considered to have a leg up on the the rest of the youthful competition just based on any experience gained this year. The fact that none of these 3 are considered high-ceiling prospects, however, and could be used as trade fodder this year to bring in a starter at the deadline makes their 2012 spots less of a sure thing. But if the Yankees catch lightning in a bottle with any of them, they're going to have to give serious consideration to keeping that guy around for 2012.
Which brings us to the next possibility, somebody either added at the 2011 deadline or signed in the 2011 offseason taking a spot. Guys like Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, and Roy Oswalt would be at the top of that list, and the addition of either of the first 2 by a trade probably eliminates guys from the Noesi/Phelps/Warren/D.J. Mitchell pool. So if one of them is brought in, do the Yankees sign him after 2011 and make him the #4 starter for 2012? If they don't, do they go all out for Roy Oswalt and plug him into the #2/#3 spot for 2012? Any outsider brought in ]before the start of 2012 has to be considered a favorite to also make the 2012 rotation due to the experience factor, but with age and salary concerns the Yankees could make the decision to not add payroll for an older player.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Yankee Catching Situation Becoming More Clear
One of the biggest competition storylines coming into Spring Training was the 2 Yankee catcher spots on the 25-man and who was going to end up with them. Before ST, the Yankees made it seem like it was Jesus Montero's job to lose, then they added Russell Martin and named him the starter, forcing Montero into a competition with Cervelli for the backup spot, a competition that was leaning in Frankie's favor thanks to his experience. Now with what's happened over the last week, some good and some bad, the picture is starting to come into focus.
Martin- He beat the odds that I set and managed to stay healthy behind the plate last night in his first game catching of ST. He caught well, didn't leave with an injury, and all indications this morning are that he feels good and will be ready to catch again tomorrow. As long as the Yankees monitor his innings and his health as he tries to get back to 100%, Martin will be the starting catcher out of camp.
Cervelli- That foul ball off his foot earlier in the week turned out to be more serious than everyone initially thought, and yesterday it was announced that Frankie has a broken foot, effectively taking him out of the competition for the backup role and forcing him to Triple-A for a rehab assignment whenever he does get healthy. While we all know what Cervelli is as a player, it still sucks to see him lose what probably would have been a sure roster spot because of something out his control. 3rd time in the last 4 years that he has suffered some sort of injury in ST. Maybe the guy should just stay away in the future.
Montero- If the season started tomorrow, The Jesus would be the backup to Martin and the buzz about him would continue to grow heading into the start of the regular season. So far this spring Montero has shown flashes of the powerful bat he possesses, and has held his own behind the dish, throwing a few runners out and getting good reviews from Yankee pitchers about his receiving skills, something that was the biggest knock on him. Montero has done everything asked of him, and with Cervelli out of the picture he becomes the best option. At 21 he's a big part of the Yankees future and it looks like that future is going to start now.
Austin Romine- Probably won't get a spot on the 25-man out of camp, but he has also impressed coaches, and Joe has not ruled him out as an option for the backup role, citing his own history as a player who made the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Romine receives a bit better than Jesus, but doesn't have the spark in his bat to put up numbers any greater than Cervelli would. At best, he bumps up to Triple-A to start the season, at worst he's back in Double-A when everything shakes, neither of which are really bad options for him.
Jorge Posada- He's still lurking as an emergency if the Yankees experience any more injury bad luck with Martin, Montero, or Romine, but they are staying committed to keeping him at DH, and it's the right move to make. Let him catch a few side sessions here and there in camp to get pitchers some work, but nobody wants Jorge behind the plate catching whole games and getting beaten up. If something happens where it comes to that, the Yankees should look to the trade market to build depth rather than risk Jorge's health early in the season.
Martin- He beat the odds that I set and managed to stay healthy behind the plate last night in his first game catching of ST. He caught well, didn't leave with an injury, and all indications this morning are that he feels good and will be ready to catch again tomorrow. As long as the Yankees monitor his innings and his health as he tries to get back to 100%, Martin will be the starting catcher out of camp.
Cervelli- That foul ball off his foot earlier in the week turned out to be more serious than everyone initially thought, and yesterday it was announced that Frankie has a broken foot, effectively taking him out of the competition for the backup role and forcing him to Triple-A for a rehab assignment whenever he does get healthy. While we all know what Cervelli is as a player, it still sucks to see him lose what probably would have been a sure roster spot because of something out his control. 3rd time in the last 4 years that he has suffered some sort of injury in ST. Maybe the guy should just stay away in the future.
Montero- If the season started tomorrow, The Jesus would be the backup to Martin and the buzz about him would continue to grow heading into the start of the regular season. So far this spring Montero has shown flashes of the powerful bat he possesses, and has held his own behind the dish, throwing a few runners out and getting good reviews from Yankee pitchers about his receiving skills, something that was the biggest knock on him. Montero has done everything asked of him, and with Cervelli out of the picture he becomes the best option. At 21 he's a big part of the Yankees future and it looks like that future is going to start now.
Austin Romine- Probably won't get a spot on the 25-man out of camp, but he has also impressed coaches, and Joe has not ruled him out as an option for the backup role, citing his own history as a player who made the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Romine receives a bit better than Jesus, but doesn't have the spark in his bat to put up numbers any greater than Cervelli would. At best, he bumps up to Triple-A to start the season, at worst he's back in Double-A when everything shakes, neither of which are really bad options for him.
Jorge Posada- He's still lurking as an emergency if the Yankees experience any more injury bad luck with Martin, Montero, or Romine, but they are staying committed to keeping him at DH, and it's the right move to make. Let him catch a few side sessions here and there in camp to get pitchers some work, but nobody wants Jorge behind the plate catching whole games and getting beaten up. If something happens where it comes to that, the Yankees should look to the trade market to build depth rather than risk Jorge's health early in the season.
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