2013 AB4AR Season Review: The Predictions

(Still my favorite image of the season)

Well we made it.  We've come to the end of the 3-week season review extravaganza, and I don't know about you readers but I've been exhausted by it and I'm glad it's over.  We finish it off, as always, with a review of my preseason predictions and some honest self-reflection about my skills as a baseball prognosticator.  Admittedly, my track record in making season predictions is not a sparkling one.  2011 was a tough year, 2012 even tougher.  I honestly didn't even go back and recap my 2013 predictions post before I started writing this and there's no way I could remember them all off the top of my head, so this should be interesting.  Here we go...


AL East Prediction-

Tampa Bay: 91-71
New York: 89-73**
Toronto: 88-74
Baltimore: 83-79
Boston: 79-83

AL East Actual-

Boston: 97-65
Tampa Bay: 92-71**
New York: 85-77
Baltimore: 85-77
Toronto: 74-88

Oof.  Not off to a good start.  Hella nice call on Tampa's record though.

AL Central Prediction-

Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City
Cleveland
Minnesota

AL Central Actual-

Detroit
Cleveland*
Kansas City
Minnesota
Chicago

Goddamn White Sox.  Not sure how to explain that one.

AL West Prediction-

Texas
Oakland*
Anaheim
Seattle
Houston

AL West Actual-

Oakland
Texas
Anaheim
Seattle
Houston

If the Rangers wouldn't have shat the bed in September, I would have nailed that one.  Not that the AL West was very difficult to predict this year, but whatever.  Small victories are still victories.

NL East Prediction-

Washington
Atlanta*
Philadelphia
New York
Florida

NL East Actual-

Atlanta
Washington
New York
Philadelphia
Florida

Nationals never put it together for long enough to live up to the hype.  Losing Harper for a lot of time didn't help either.

NL Central Prediction-

Cincinnati
St. Louis**
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Chicago

NL Central Actual-

St. Louis
Pittsburgh*
Cincinnati**
Milwaukee
Chicago

Is this the only good division in the National League.  Yes, yes it is.

NL West Prediction-

San Francisco
Los Angeles
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado

NL West Actual-

Los Angeles
Arizona
San Francisco
San Diego
Colorado

Can you say "World Series hangover"?  Good thing the Giants just gave Big Time Timmy Jim $35 million to come back and recapture the magic of 2012.

ALCS Prediction- Tigers over Rays in 6
ALCS Actual- Red Sox over Tigers in 6

NLCS Prediction- Nationals over Cardinals in 7
NLCS Actual- Cardinals over Dodgers in 6

World Series Prediction- Tigers over Nationals in 6
World Series Actual- TBD

Award Predictions-

AL MVP- Robinson Cano
NL MVP- Bryce Harper

AL Cy Young- Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young- Adam Wainwright

AL Rookie of the Year- Wil Myers
NL Rookie of the Year- Oscar Taveras

AL Manager of the Year- Joe Girardi
NL Manager of the Year- Bruce Bochy

Still too early to know how all those predictions will turn out, but I feel comfortable saying that none of my MVP or MOY picks will pan out.  I'll stand by my original logic and say that I believe Joe would have won it over John Farrell if the Yankees could have somehow made it to the playoffs.  But even then, I don't think Robbie was going to overtake Miggy Cabrera's monster numbers.  I like my Wainwright pick, even if he is going to finish 2nd to Kershaw, and I was right on with Wil Myers.  If Carlos Beltran would have gotten hurt early in the season like I expected, who knows what would have happened with Tavares.

So with Myers and picking 6 of the 10 playoff teams correctly, I'm going to put a positive spin on this and call it an improved year.  I still whiffed on a lot of the divisional rankings, but I made progress and I'm moving in the right direction for 2014.  With 3 years of prediction experience under my belt now, I feel like next year is the year I put it all together.  Who knows?  I might actually get 1 of the World Series participants right next year.  That'd be a helluva thing, eh?