Nova's Thinking About It All Wrong

(Courtesy of The AP)

I like that Ivan Nova recognizes that he has to change something about his approach with the way he's getting beat right now.  And I appreciate that he has a plan in mind based off of what type of pitcher he is and what he knows he has to do to be successful.  It's encouraging to see a pitcher this young be so upfront about his performance.  But I question whether this change in approach would be the right change to make.

“It doesn’t matter if I get a strikeout or not.  I used to pitch with a lot of ground balls. This year I haven’t. I guess I’ve just got to go back and do exactly the same thing as last year, getting my ground balls and a strikeout when you need it.” (Nova after yesterday's game)

I see what you're trying to do there, Ivan.  You're trying to go back to what's given you the most success in the past.  But what you're forgetting is that strikeouts do matter and they're way better than groundouts.  Any time you're getting an out without giving the hitter a chance to put the ball in play, that's a good thing.  The strides you've made over the past year to improve your stuff and your control to get more strikeouts (career-high 9.55 K/9 this season) and cut down on your walks (career-low 2.94 BB/9 this season) are both positive strides.  That's what has raised your ceiling from a back-of-the-rotation depth arm to a potential above-average #3 starter.  You want to keep doing that.

The issue is not too many strikeouts.  It's too many pitches left in the meaty part of the strike zone for batters to hit.  Your control and stuff were on display last night with the 23 swinging strikes and 12 strikeouts.  But your lack of command of your stuff was also shown on the 2 doubles and the HR you gave up on poorly-located pitches in the zone.  You need to keep doing exactly what you're doing; attacking with the fastball, mixing pitches, finishing with swing-and-miss offspeed stuff in the dirt.

What you have to change is how you throw in the middle of at-bats.  Get the 1 or 2-strike sliders and curves down in the zone.  Throw the 2-strike fastballs to the corners and in the lower third of the strike zone.  Even if you miss, at least you're missing in spots where the hitter can't make solid contact, which could lead to those groundballs you're talking about, and you may get the benefit of the doubt from the umpire on a called strike.  When you leave those pitches up and in the middle, you aren't going to get the benefit of the doubt from anybody, unless a hitter just flat out misses the ball.

The swings and misses are a good thing, Ivan.  The high strikeout numbers are even better.  The lack of command within the zone is what's not, and that's where you need to tighten up.  When you leave the ball up in the zone, it's going to get hit high and it's going to get hit hard.  Keep the ball down like you did so well in the second half last year and the groundballs will come.  Strikeouts and groundballs together are what a pitcher wants to see.  Don't sacrifice one for the other.

(Nova's quote courtesy of Chad Jennings at LoHud, as were all of the quotes from my Joe Girardi rant the other day)