Catching Up With The AB4AR Top 30

(Gone but not forgotten... )

A little over 5 months ago, I dipped my toe in the prospect pool and made my first attempt at creating a top Yankee prospects list.  Over a week at the end of December/early January, I unveiled my inaugural AB4AR Top 30.  Some picks were actually pretty good (ranking Rob Segedin 17th when many others didn't even have him on their lists).  Some were downright horrible (ranking Tyler Austin 30th).  Mine was really the first list that came out prior to the 2012 season, so I think for a first try it wasn't bad, but now that it's MLB Draft time, everybody is coming out with their updated pre-draft lists (see here and here).

To be quite honest, I've never really understood the value of re-doing the rankings so early in the MiL season.  Too much credit can be given for a really hot start, too much punishment can be given a really crummy start, and I don't think guys deserve to be bumped down the rankings just because they are hurt.  And let's not forget that the SS and GCL leagues haven't even started up yet.  It's no knock on the guys and sites that do it, but personally, I don't see how I'm supposed to honestly say that I think one guy has moved up over another when he hasn't even gotten 1 PA this year.

I can't.  And I won't.  But what I will do is revisit my Top 30 list from late last year/early this year and give a quick run-through of what each guy is doing and how that may affect his stock moving forward towards the eventual unveiling of the 2012/2013 edition of the AB4AR Top 30.  So if you're ready, I'm ready.  Let's take a look.


1) Jesus Montero- C, Seattle Mariners: Still a tough pill for many Yankee fans to swallow.  Montero is  Mariner now after the mid-January trade for Pineda and hitting .259/.299/.423 (.309 wOBA).  He'll be off the list next time.

2) Manny Banuelos- LHP, Triple-A Empire State: Up and down season thus far, marred by a couple of DL stints.  Could feel some heat for the new #1 spot.

3) Dellin Betances- RHP, Triple-A Empire State: Not making much progress after getting bumped up to Triple-A last season.  A reliever conversion could be coming soon, as could a move down the list.

4) Austin Romine- C, Triple-A Empire State: Still yet to play in a single game this year.  That combined with his "meh" performance last season could have him set up for a tumble.

5) Gary Sanchez- C, Low-A Charleston: Up to .304/.354/.515 (.393 wOBA) on the year after a recent tear.  Should be looking at a top-3 spot at the absolute worst after this season, and likely higher than that.

6) Mason Williams- CF, Low-A Charleston: Has cooled down a bit after a scorching hot April, but all 5 tools have been on display.  Should also force his way into the top 3.

7) Adam Warren- RHP, Triple-A Empire State: Taking a step back this year (4.33 ERA/4.37 FIP)after a so-so year last year at this level, which is not a good thing.

8) David Phelps- RHP, New York Yankees: Won a spot on the 25-man to open the season and has already pitched 33.2 innings in the show.  He'll be off the next list.

9) J.R. Murphy- C, High-A Tampa: He made the High-A ASG, but based more on status than performance (.291 wOBA).  Can maintain top-10 status with a strong 2nd half.

10) Slade Heathcott- CF, High-A Tampa: Closer to returning than Romine, but needs to stay healthy and show development to avoid dropping out of the top 10.

11) Brett Marshall- RHP, Double-A Trenton: As I mentioned earlier today, the drop in Ks is a problem, but he has generally pitched well.  A strong finish should earn him an easy top 10 spot.

12) D.J. Mitchell- RHP, Triple-A Empire State: My personal favorite in the Triple-A stable keeps doing his thing (3.52 FIP in 53 IP for ES and a 2.2-inning COC in the show).  Age prevents him from making a sneak attack on the top 10.

13) Corban Joseph- 2B, Triple-A Empire State: Recently promoted after an extended stay in Double-A.  Probably bumping his head against his prospect ceiling, but we'll see how he handles the new level.
14) Graham Stoneburner- RHP, Double-A Trenton: Dude just can't catch a break with injuries.  Hopefully he makes it back to get some quality innings in this year.

15) Brandon Laird- 3B, Triple-A Empire State: Dude is just falling off the map with his lack of production.  Power is really his only plus right now, and he could be in for a big tumble.

16) Ramon Flores- RF, High-A Tampa: Bad April, better May.  Still not a lot of power, but he's still drawing walks and limiting his strikeouts.  Could sneak into the top 15.

17) Rob Segedin- OF/3B, High-A Tampa: Playing more corner OF than hot corner these days, but has really made the adjustments at the plate.  A solid top-15 guy right now.

18) Bryan Mitchell- RHP, Low-A Charleston: Got shelled last time out, but take that outing away and his numbers look awfully good this year.  Has top 10-quality stuff.

19) Dante Bichette, Jr- 3B, Low-A Charleston: I didn't jump on the Bichette bandwagon as fast as everybody else, and wanted to see what he could do in a full-season league before declaring him a gem.  He's struggled with injuries and lack of power this season, but could still end up in my top 10-15 with an improved 2nd half.

20) Zoilo Almonte- OF, Double-A Trenton: Missed a lot of time with a groin injury, and still trying to put everything together this season.

21) Cito Culver- SS, Low-A Charleston: Drawing walks, but not doing much else.  He's supposed to be a glove-first prospect but he's made too many errors for my liking.

22) David Adams- 2B, Double-A Trenton: Finally back to playing 2nd every day with CoJo moved up.  Needs to flash his pre-injury form to avoid falling off the radar.

23) Ravel Santana- CF, SS Staten Island: Easily the most anticipated season debut in the SS leagues will be his.  If he's recovered from his ankle injury, he's top 10 on his worst day.

24) George Kontos- RHP, San Francisco Giants: Traded for Chris Stewart, and toiling away in the SF MiL system.  Off the list.

25) Mark Montgomery- RHP, High-A Tampa: The D-Rob comparisons only grow louder with each K.  Has dominated High-A just like he did Low-A and will be a big mover at the end of the year.

26) Nik Turley- LHP, High-A Tampa: He was my sleeper pick in the TYA pool, and had been impressive before suffering blister problems.  If he puts those behind him, he could work into the top 15-20.

27) Tommy Kahnle- RHP, High-A Tampa: Hampered by injuries early, and not showing a lot of command since coming back.  Very likely to drop off.

28) Kyle Roller- 1B, High-A Tampa: Still draws a lot of walks (10.4% BB rate), but needs to start showing some consistent power to stay on the list.

29) Branden Pinder- RHP, High-A Tampa: Hasn't made the jump as smoothly as Montgomery.  Ks are down, and walks and FIP are up, but he's got time to recover.  Already almost exceeded his IP from last season.

30) Tyler Austin- RF, Low-A Charleston: Just continues to rake (.480 wOBA) and has gotten positive reviews for his defense in right.  Looking at a surefire top-5 spot if he keeps this up.

** Bonus Spot- Jose Campos- RHP, Low-A Charleston: Slotted him in 6th after the Montero trade, and he pitched very well before going down with elbow soreness.  If he can make it back and keep performing, he's an easy top 10 and likely top 5 prospect.

So that's where the AB4AR Top 30 stands heading into the draft tonight.  Remember, this is just based on the final ranking from the initial list, so if you're not seeing somebody on here that you're high on (Angelo Gumbs, Chase Whitley, Rafael DePaula), that doesn't mean you won't see him at the end of the year when the new Top 30 is revealed.

Here's hoping for a good draft for the Yankees this year and a new batch of prospects to start breaking down and getting excited about.