Monday, March 15, 2010

When You're Wrong, You're Wrong...

However, when I am wrong, I tend to be WAYYYYYYYYYYYY fucking wrong.  Case in point, last year, December 13th, my comments on the Yankees potentially signing Ben Sheets:

"Why the hell not? The guy is a walking DL-stint, but he also was one of the most dominant pitchers in his league for a stretch of years when he was healthy and the combination of his injury-prone status and long time away from the mound means he's going to come cheap.

Cash has already been talking to his agent and Sheets is expected to be ready for Spring Training. NL pitchers traditionally don't translate well to moving up to the Big League, but with Sheets' lack of history with AL teams it's more than likely that there isn't a very thick book on him in anybody's clubhouse.

The back end of the rotation is still a question mark and Sheets does pose a big question mark himself. But he is a proven commodity and if his stuff is half of what it was at his peak, then he's just as viable an option for the back end of the rotation than Joba, Gaudin, or anybody. Depending on how the Damon/Matsui situations play out, I don't think it would be too big of a risk to throw a $3-5mil, 1-year deal at Sheets (AKA "The Boston Red Sox-John Smoltz Special), and see what happens."

Fast forward to today, when Sheets put up the following line: 0 IP, 8 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 1 BB, 0 K.  That's right folks, Ben Sheets put up the elusive and horrifically special infinite ERA today as he didn't retire one batter before being lifted.  If you're keeping score at home, that's now 18 runs allowed by Sheets in 4 1/3 innings of work.  Not exactly the type of numbers the sabermetric-obsessed Billy Beane was looking for, especially when Sheets came to him at a not-so-cheap $10 million for this season.  And not exactly the numbers I foresaw when I thought signing Sheets was a good idea.

Clearly I was way off in my assessment of Sheets and even further off in thinking it would have been a good idea for the Yanks to bring him in as competition for the 5th spot in the rotation.  I would rather have Joba go out there and give up 6 runs in 2+ innings every single time he's on the mound than watch Sheets give up a 10-spot before even getting a guy out.  That kind of shit would have me heaving my remote through the screen of my TV, and I've got a nice damn TV.  So in this case, I'm glad I experienced a temporary lapse in my usual dead-on Yankee-related aim and with all the other times I've been right on the money, I think it's OK if we let this one slide.  When you're as good as I am, sometimes you have to be able to step back and poke some fun at yourself.

P.S.- It's obvious that Sheets' stuff isn't half of what is used to be, but at least I got the "Sheets does pose a big question mark" part right.  Sort of.


Rob Abruzzese said...

Yeah, pitchers who are constantly injured should probably just be avoided as much as possible. You just can't count on them. Giving a guy who has just undergone Tommy John surgery for the first time in his life a cheap contract or a two year deal is one thing, but guys like Sheets and Harden should just be avoided altogether. Health is underrated in baseball.

Bronx Baseball Daily

Unknown said...

I agree completely. And I'm normally a lot better about knowing that. I openly admitted that I knew Sheets was a walking DL-stint and I still thought he was a good idea. I don't know what I was thinking. I'm just glad he's not doing what he's doing in a Yankee uniform right now.

That must have been an out-of-body experience when I was writing that post. That's the only explanation that makes sense.